sentix co !

eport "ndicators #or the Global conom$

07. Januar$ 2013
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<r. (e#astian 3an1e

7enior /nal$st sebastian.)an.e>sentix.de sentix ;m#H 9eldbergstra:e 2- ',,,0 ;imburg < ;ahn %el. =4* 5'0218 41( 1(0- in#o>sentix.de

sentix economic index: Happy New Year! Euroland caught up strongly

%he composite index for Euroland rises in Januar$ #rom &1'.( points to !." points. %his is its #i#th rise in a ro). %he assessment o# the *0' sur+e$ed participants o# the current situation as )ell as expectations #or the next six months are once again better than be#ore. %he impro+ement is especiall$ strong in expectations. %hese rise b$ 13., points to 12.0 points. %his is the highest value since Fe#ruary $"%% and the sixth increase in a ro).

(tatistics
Poll running2 "/."%. "=."%.$"%/

For the other countries and regions& the headline indices rise #oth 7ur+e$ participants2 >"? for the current situation and for expectations. "nterestingl$- the '( 5o# )hich institutional in+estors2 $$! indicators end relati+el$ )ea.. /ll in all- the beginning o# the $ear is 8 +er$ strong. 0onse1uentl$- there are this time t)o things to celebrate2 )Happy New Year * Happy +irthday!, 3 the sentix economic indices are no) %" years old!

sentix indications for upcoming mar1et events

Please #ind in this section +aluable in#ormation on important upcoming mar.et e+ents and the expectations that can be deri+ed #rom sentix data. sentix @ first mover advanatage!

22.01.2013 & 2E3 economic expectations2 another strong rise- probabl$ to around 2, points 24.01.2013 & Flash 456s 5 uroland- 0hina- 67/82 clearl$ up 2,.01.2013 & ifo #usiness climate2 expectations rising strongl$ againprobabl$ to o+er 100 points 01.02.2013 & 6(5 6ndex 7'(89& 456 :hina2 clearl$ up

-a#le of the .anuary $"%/ results for the euro 0one economy

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sentix co !eport "ndicators #or the Global conom$

07. Januar$ 2013

:ommentary on the survey results for .anuary $"%/ Happy New Year! Euroland catches up strongly
-he composite index for Euroland shows a strong improvement in .anuary and rises for the fifth time in a row. -he rise in economic expectations is especially pronounced& rising to the highest value since Fe#ruary $"%%. +oth the assessments of the current situation and expectations of other countries and regions all point upward. -he '( values end comparatively wea1. 8ll in all& the #eginning of the year is very strong. -hus& we cele#rate #oth the start of the new year and the %"th #irthday of the sentix economic index! "n Januar$- the composite index for Euroland rose #rom &1'.( to no) !." points. +oth the assessment of the current situation and the expectations components improve. %he rise in expectations is especiall$ pronounced. Here- the index rises b$ 13., points and is no) clearl$ in the positi+e ?one at 12.0 points. /mongst the *0' sur+e$ participants there is no) a clear ma@orit$ o# economic optimists #or the coming ' months. %hat the impro+ement o# the indices #or the euro ?one is this strong is on the one hand due to the man$- smaller positive news around Euroland2 ;reece had its #irst positi+e headlines in a long time )ith a success#ul bu$ing bac. o# debt and an upgrading 5!8 o# its credit rating b$ 7tandard A PoorBsC in (pain- unemplo$ment dropped 5!8 unexpectedl$ in DecemberC 6reland )as able to report a better 5!8 than expected budget de#icit and in ;ermany- the countr$ on )hich the hopes o# a euro ?one reco+er$ lie- the labour mar.et pro+ed +er$ robust- and the i#o business climate is once again on the rise. An the other hand- the '(8 )ere able to #end o## a plunge o+er the #iscal cli##- but in )hat disappointing manner! %his can be #ound in the respecti+e economic indices. 6n fact& in .anuary& the rises in the euro 0one indices for the assessment of the current situation and the expectations 7and with that also of the composite index9 are the strongest of all surveyed countries and regions.

sentix economic index Euroland: current situation 7red9 and expectations 7#lue9

7. Januar 2013

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07. Januar$ 2013

;ermany @ private investors are also coming out of hiding

9or ;ermany& the composite index impro+es in Januar$ b$ 4.7 to 17.7 points. %he rise in expectations is once again stronger- )ith almost se+en points- to no) *.3- but the economic situation is also clearing up a#ter the drop last month2 it rises to =2'., points. "n comparison2 the economic situation #or the euro ?one is still in the red at &24.3. 6t remains remar1a#le that with the change of the year& private investors have finally dropped their pessimism& too2 the economic expectations o# pri+ate in+estors rose b$ 7.' points and there#ore more stongl$ than those o# the institutionals. "t lands in the positi+e ?one at =4.0 points. Eith this- there are also more optimists than pessimists amongst pri+ate in+estors concerning the condition o# the German econom$ o+er the next six months. "n the e$es o# in+estors- German$ there#ore ta.es o+er the role o# economic locomoti+e in uroland. /n alread$ strong domestic demand is no) once again supported b$ exports- )ith the economies in 0hina- Japan and the 67/ pic.ing up pace 5see #or this also the respecti+e sentix economic indices on the #ollo)ing pages8 Ehat do the sentix German indices mean #or the other ;erman sentiment indicatorsF %he 2E3 economic expectations will continue to rise strongly- in Januar$ probabl$ to a +alue o# around =2, points. "# one ta.es into consideration the sentix economic expectations o# institutionals in German$- e+en higher readings might be possible. Ee must ta.e into consideration- ho)e+er- that the G E economic expectations 5currentl$8 are lagging the sentix index b$ about a month 5see our paper Hsentix economic expectations2 more than a #irst mo+erI8. 0oncerning the ifo #usiness climate- the economic expectations o# pri+ate in+estors gi+e us a better hint- namel$ +ia the more important expectational component o# the i#o index 5see our blog entr$ at ))).sentix.de2 H%he better i#o prognosisI8. /s the sentix results o# pri+ate in+estors in the past months ha+e risen continuall$- and sometimes strongl$- the ifo #usiness climate should continue to impro+e in Januar$- probabl$ to over %"" points.

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B$/&$

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sentix co !eport "ndicators #or the Global conom$

07. Januar$ 2013

8sia ex .apan @ :hina pulling forward

7ince last summer- expectations and- later- the economic situation #or :hina ha+e risen strongl$. 6n .anuary& the economic expectations rise once again #y a strong !.= points and now hit the highest value since Acto#er $""C at $D.= points! Here- on the one hand- the economic measures o# the second hal# o# 2012 and the hopes resting in the ne) 0hinese political leaders that )ill ta.e o+er po)er in Jarch supported the de+elopment. /t the same time- the strong increase o# 0hinese domestic stoc. prices 507" 3008 )ill ha+e assured the sur+e$ participants in their positi+e stance to)ards 0hina.

B!&= .apan @ continuing on the upward trend

%he global economic reco+er$ and especiall$ the )ea. Ken- )hich has recei+ed ne) momentum a#ter the change in go+ernment in Japan- ha+e supported the Japanese econom$2 composite- situational and expectational indices risehere- too. %he rise in this monthLs expectations index is onl$ o+ershado)ed b$ that o# the euro ?one. For the next six months& institutional investors are as optimistic as they were last in 5ay $""? 7!9. 9or a closer loo1 at .apan- see the sentix annual road map- )hich can be ordered at ))).sentix.de.

B!&D

7. Januar 2013

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sentix co !eport "ndicators #or the Global conom$

07. Januar$ 2013

'(8 @ relief and disappointment after overcoming the fiscal cliff

6n .anuary& the composite index for the '( continues to improve& #ut with a rise of only almost three points& it remains #ehind the indices of all other countries and regions in the sentix survey. "n this de+elopment- )e can see the relie# and disappointment 3 concerning the o+ercoming o# the #iscal cli##. "n+estors are relie+ed that a #all o+er the #iscal cli## )as a+erted. Mut the$ are disappointed b$ the )a$ in )hich the /merican tax compromise came aboutas )ell as )ith the compromise itsel#. "n sentix in+estor con#idence- the 67 #all bac. relati+el$. Especially the euro 0one is a#le to gain massive ground in .anuary. 6n an international comparison& the old continent is o#viously not doing so #adly!

;lo#al @ recovery on its way

%he impro+ements in all indices in all countries and regions ha+e ine+itabl$ led to an impro+ement o# the indices in the global aggregate. %he global composite index rises strongl$ b$ ,.' to 14.1 points- the highest reading since /ugust 2011. xpectations rise more strongl$ than the assessment o# the economic situation. %hese reach a le+el )e last sa) in Ja$ 2011. Nur conclusion2 )Happy New Year!, recovery is on its way!

7. Januar 2013

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sentix co !eport "ndicators #or the Global conom$

07. Januar$ 2013

Further data and charts

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sentix co !eport "ndicators #or the Global conom$

07. Januar$ 2013

Data a+ailabilit$

/bout sentix
Nn a )ee.l$ basis- almost 4.000 registered in+estors 5o# )hich about *00 are institutionals8 suppl$ us )ith their mar.et assessment. Nut o# this datasentix calculates sentiment indexes- )hich mirror the sentiment o# e1uit$ mar.ets 5D/O- uro7%NOO ,0- Pi..ei 22,- 7AP ,008- bond mar.ets 5Mund& 9uture- 67&%reasur$&9uture8 and currencies 5 6!<67D- 67D<K P8. %hese sentiment indexes are setting the standard- held in high regard b$ man$ reno)ned #inancial pla$ers and are used b$ in+estment pro#essionals in their anal$ses and in+estment processes. / histor$ o# more than ele+en $ears and the simple access to data +ia reputable data pro+iders as )ell as a )ebsite document the outstanding position o# sentix as the leading independent sentiment data base.

Mac.ground- methodolog$ and more

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7. Januar 2013

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sentix co !eport "ndicators #or the Global conom$

07. Januar$ 2013

Disclaimer
Important information concerning liability, compliance, protection of investors and copyright
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7. Januar 2013

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