Malthus Essay

Varun Tumuluru 11/02/14

Malthuss views are not relevant today Thomas Robert Malthus was an 18th century demographer and economist1, who wrote in his An Essay on the Principle of Population2 of the Malthusian crisis, which later became the Malthusian theory; which states that the human population will grow at a significantly faster; at an exponential - geometric rate, while the food and resources that the earth can supply will grow at an arithmetic rate, meaning that at a predicted time, the human population would outscale the resource production, leading to famine; disease and war. In contrast to this, is the Anti-Malthusian theory, which states that humans will find resources as population grows, and thus survive - a major adherent to this theory being Esther Boserup. Firstly, is population growth; the UN predicts that by 2050 there will be a population of 9.6 billion, this suggests a tremendous rise in population, fuelled by high fertility rates in LEDCs, and the population boom. This implies that the Malthusian theory might come into play, as fertility is predicted to reach the current base rate of 2 only in 21003. In addition to this, is the constant-fertility projections; which project population based on an unchanged fertility rate from now till 2100: the population resting at approximately 11 billion in 2050 and 28 billion in 21004. Despite this, due to an increased rate of development, and improving government systems which continue to enforce anti-natalist policies, and family planning; the low variant population projections rest at approximately 8.5 billion in 2050 and 6 billion in 21005. Thereby supporting possibility of both Neo and Anti-Malthusian theory. Malthus stated that as human population grows, resource will run out, and perhaps suggested correctly. World-wide, there is mass resource consumption; not only regarding food scarcity but also resources such as oil, and water: Between 2002 and 2012, there has been an increase in Total Petroleum consumption from 78,168.3 to 89,194.8 in unit thousand barrels per day6, which amounts to a staggering increase of 11,026.5, in unit thousand barrels per day. Along with this, is the total energy consumption; which in a similar 10 year period: 2000 to 2010, has increased from 9,323.135 to 13,473.2807 by 4150.145 billion kilowatt-hours (excluding renewables and nuclear), signifying an increase in usage of both fuel and electricity, while production rates of fuel especially have been consistently below world consumption rate, thereby suggesting negative supply. Contrastingly, though, are the renewable energy sources; whose energy resources have nearly doubled between 2000 and 2010, in units billion kilowatt-hours; from 2,871.370 to 4,167.199 by 1,295.829 billion kilowatt-hours, accounting for 5% of the total net energy production in 2010, increasing on average, and therefore meaning that new methods of energy production are being found. Furthermore, is food, which was more the basis of Malthuss research. According to the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the number of undernourished in the world, despite a steady decrease between 1992 and 2010 (from 980 to 852 million8), has stopped, with data for 2012
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(Britannica Encyclopaedia, 2013) (Malthus, 1798) 3 (United Nations, 2013, p. 12) 4 (United Nations, 2013, p. 100) 5 (United Nations, 2013, p. 99) 6 (eia: U.S. Department of Energy, n.d.) 7 (eia: U.S. Department of Energy, n.d.) 8 (Food and Agriculture Organisation - FAO, Rome, p. 70) 1

Malthus Essay
Varun Tumuluru 11/02/14

showing no change, remaining at 852 million. In compliance with this, is the food production value, in unit $/CPT (Dollars per capita) increasing between 1992 and 2009 from approximately 250 to 3009, while the relative price of food by economic development continues to rise from 2000, with countries such as Uganda facing food price increases of 25% coupled with a 30% increase in undernourishment10. In contrast to this, there has been a steady increase of crop production gross per capita index, from approximately 93 in 2000 to approximately 106 in 201211, in addition to this is the growth in poultry stock at an average of 3% per year12, while per capita rice production tipped over the 100kg/cap bar in 2010 from approximately 98 in 200013. In retrospect; neither Neo nor Anti-Malthusian views are entirely correct of predictions, with both being possible, depending on development rates in the world, and while both suggest a population check, they do so through different methods. Neo-Malthusians state that human population will be kept in check due to the famine, drought, disease and war brought about by the lack of resource while Anti-Malthusians suggest that factors such as education, smart family planning, and government anti-natalist schemes will aid in reducing population growth worldwide. Despite conflict, the Anti-Malthusians are conforming to the basic principles portrayed by Neo-Malthusians and even Malthus himself; that population requires to be reduced, contrasting only by the method of reduction, thus implying that even AntiMalthusian theory conveys to a certain extent that, population increase, could eventually lead to a lack of resources shown by the point of crossover between a geometric population curve, and an arithmetic food curve: the Malthusian trap14.

References
Britannica Encyclopaedia. (2013, July 12). Thomas Robert Malthus: Encycolpaedia Britannica . Retrieved 2014, from Encycolpaedia Britannica: http://www.britannica.com/topic/360609/history eia: U.S. Department of Energy. (n.d.). International Energy Statistics. Retrieved 2014, from eia: U.S. Energy Information and Administration: http://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=2&pid=2&aid=12&cid=regions&syid=2000 &eyid=2010&unit=BKWH Food and Agriculture Organisation - FAO. (Rome). FAO Statistical Yearbook (2013 ed.). 2013: Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations. Retrieved 2014 Malthus, T. R. (1798). An Essay on the Principle of Population. London: J. Johnson. Retrieved 2014, from http://www.esp.org/books/malthus/population/malthus.pdf United Nations. (2013). 2012: Demographic Yearbook. New York: United Nations Publication. Retrieved 2014 United Nations. (2013). World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision. New York: United Nations Publication. Retrieved 2014 Web Books. (n.d.). 19.2. Population Growth and Economic Development . Retrieved 2014, from Web Books Publishing: http://www.web-books.com/eLibrary/ON/B0/B62/095MB62.html

(Food and Agriculture Organisation - FAO, Rome, p. 76) (Food and Agriculture Organisation - FAO, Rome, p. 78) 11 (Food and Agriculture Organisation - FAO, Rome, p. 128) 12 (Food and Agriculture Organisation - FAO, Rome, p. 140) 13 (Food and Agriculture Organisation - FAO, Rome, p. 132) 14 (Web Books, n.d.)
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Malthus Essay
Varun Tumuluru 11/02/14