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February 3, 2013
Relaxo Footwears
Promising future
Y/E March (` cr) Total Income EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Reported PAT 3QFY2014 3QFY2013 % chg (yoy) 2QFY2014 % chg (qoq) 259 223 16.2 263 (1.6) 28 19 48.8 26 7.3 10.8 8.4 236bp 9.9 89bp 11 6 74.5 12 (9.1)
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta Net debt (` cr) 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
`231 `262
12 Months
Relaxo Footwears (Relaxo) reported a strong set of numbers for 3QFY2014, broadly in line with our estimates on the top-line and bottom-line front. The top-line clocked a 16.2% yoy growth to `259cr, against our estimate of `248cr. The gross margin for the quarter was flat on a yoy basis at 55.0%. However, with optimization of costs, the overall expense for the company is consolidating, leading to margin expansion. For the quarter, the operating margin expanded by 236bp yoy and came in at 10.8%. As a result, the net profit for the quarter came in at `11cr, 74.5% higher yoy and in line with our estimate. Profit to grow at a higher rate over FY2013-16E On account of improving brand visibility resulting in strong demand, we expect Relaxo to post a revenue CAGR of 14.3% over FY2013-16E to `1,502cr. The company is now in a consolidation phase with 1) optimized employee costs, 2) less requirement of investment in advertising as post the endorsement by the three Bollywood stars - Salman Khan (Hawaii), Katrina Kaif (Flite) and Akshay Kumar (Sparx), the company has successfully improved its brand visibility, 3) expected breakeven of most Relaxo Shopee by FY2015, and 4) improving product mix. The aforementioned factors will aid in expanding the operating margin of the company by 209bp to 12.5% in FY2016E. Additionally, with decent cash flow coming in, we expect debt repayment to start leading to lower interest cost and also with sufficient capacity expansion already in place; depreciation cost is expected to be flat. Resultantly, we expect the companys profit growth to be almost the double of revenue growth and come in at `98cr in FY2016, ie a CAGR of 29.9% over FY2013-16E. Outlook and valuation: At the current market price, the stock is trading at 14.1x FY2016E earnings. With the consolidating business and increasing brand value, we are valuing the company at a higher multiple of 16.0x FY2016E earnings and recommend an Accumulate rating on the stock with a revised target price of `262.
Footwear 1,385 0.3 107 255 / 100 2,983 5 20,514 6,090 RLXO.BO RLXF IN
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 75.0 16.5 1.4 7.2
3m (2.5) 35.2
1yr 2.5
3yr 11.8
43.1 242.8
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EBITDA margin (%) Adj. EPS (Post stock split) (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E FY2016E
860 25.4 40 48.7 10.5 6.7 34.7 8.0 26.0 19.5 1.8 17.0
1,005 16.8 45 12.2 10.4 7.5 30.9 6.5 23.2 17.6 1.6 15.1
1,125 11.9 57 27.8 11.3 9.5 24.2 5.4 24.3 19.6 1.4 12.5
1,300 15.6 77 34.3 12.0 12.8 18.0 4.3 26.6 23.5 1.2 9.9
1,502 15.6 98 27.6 12.5 16.4 14.1 3.4 27.1 26.1 1.0 7.9
Tejashwini Kumari
30940000 ext: 6856 tejashwini.kumari@angelbroking.com
3QFY2014 259 117 45.0 27 10.3 88 34.0 231 28 10.8 6 8 2 15 6.0 5 31.3 11 4.1
3QFY2013 223 101 45.4 27 12.2 76 34.1 204 19 8.4 5 6 1 9 4.0 3 31.8 6 2.7
% chg (yoy) 16.2 15.3 (1.8) 15.9 13.2 48.8 236bp 28.3 27.2 35.3 73.2 70.6 74.5
2QFY2014 263 114 43.3 27 10.4 96 36.4 237 26 9.9 6 7 4 17 6.5 6 32.2 12 4.4
% chg (qoq) (1.6) 2.3 (2.9) (8.2) (2.5) 7.3 89bp 2.4 9.7 (64.0) (10.3) (12.7) (9.1)
9MFY2014 835 369 44.2 84 10.1 285 34.1 738 97 11.6 17 23 8 65 7.8 21 32.2 44 5.3
9MFY2013 714 336 47.0 85 11.9 220 30.8 641 73 10.2 12 19 4 46 6.4 15 31.7 31 4.4
% chg 17.0 9.9 (1.1) 29.5 15.2 33.1 141bp 36.8 22.3 77.8 40.7 43.1 39.5
February 3, 2014
( ` cr)
(%)
30 25 20 15 10
6 4
(%)
30.0 20.0
25.2
24.0
18.8
32.2
43.0
26.0
27.9
18
33
30
5 0
2 0
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY14
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY12
4QFY12
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY14
1QFY14
2QFY14
3QFY14
The tax expense for the quarter stood at `5cr (31.3% of PBT). The net profit came in at `11cr, 74.5% higher yoy and in line with our estimate.
Investment rationale
Celebrity endorsement and retail expansion to strengthen brand visibility
The company had a total count of 168 retail outlets as at the end of the year FY2013. Post the endorsement by the three Bollywood stars - Salman Khan (Hawaii), Katrina Kaif (Flite) and Akshay Kumar (Sparx), the demand for the companys product offerings has risen. Our channel check in various cities in North India suggests that demand for Sparx and Flite is increasing due to regular launches of new varieties in the affordable price range. The demand for Hawaii brand remains intact. Breakeven of Relaxo Shoppe to add to the profitability We believe that retail expansion along with rigorous advertisement will help the company in successfully expanding its reach and visibility as well as in strengthening its brand image. Additionally, the company is aggressively working towards closing/dislocating the non-performing Relaxo Shoppe, which will reduce pressure on inventory and operating margin. Also, the retail division rationalization has started giving positive results on the margin front and we expect most of them to break-even by the next financial year ie FY2015E, adding directly to the profitability of the company. We also believe that the company will be able to maintain its market share in the mass segment through the Hawaii brand and penetrate further in the lower and upper-middle class segments through existing products and upcoming launches of Flite and Sparx brands.
February 3, 2014
3QFY14
According to industry reports, the current Indian footwear market is ~`26,300cr and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15% over FY2011-15E to `38,700cr by FY2015E. Additionally, the organized market, in which the company operates, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 19% for the same period to reach `17,500cr by FY2015E (from `10,000cr in FY2011).
Unorganised, 60%
Organised, 40%
Women, 30%
Men, 60%
February 3, 2014
Financial performance
Assumptions
Exhibit 7: Key assumptions
Assumptions Volume Growth Realisation Growth Change in raw material prices (%) Ethyl Vinyl Acetate (EVA) Rubber
Source: Company, Angel Research
While we maintain our estimates for FY2014E, we tweak them for FY2015E to factor in the demand environment and market conditions. As we roll over to FY2016E, we expect the revenue to grow at a CAGR of 14.3% over FY2013-16E to `1,502cr for FY2016E, mainly on the back of the prevailing growth triggers, which include 1)sufficient capacity to cater to increasing demand, 2) improving sales mix and 3) improving brand visibility and brand recall.
27.0
26.0
25.1
23.9
30 15.6 16.8 20 10 0
20.0
(%)
9.6 10.9
10.5
10.4 11.3
11.3
12.0
12.5
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013E
FY2014E
FY2015E
FY2013E
FY2014E
FY2015E
Revenue (LHS)
FY2016E
EBITDAM
We expect the margin to improve by 209bp in FY2016E to 12.5% with improving product mix and portfolio management, cost optimization, breakeven of most of the Relaxo Shoppe and better capacity utilization. We remain cautious about raw material prices in future, given the prevailing inflationary conditions; we have hence factored in a 5% and 7% increase in the same for FY2015E and FY2016E respectively. Further, we expect the consolidation of expenses to take place, majorly in employee cost and other expenses (mainly advertisement spend). We
February 3, 2014
FY2016E
(%)
10.0
9.6
10.3
10.3
10.3
also expect the debt to be repaid by 15% each in FY2015E and FY2016E with the cash flow coming in, thereby adding to profitability. On account of improved margins, and debt repayment we expect the net profit to grow at a CAGR of 29.9% over FY2013-16E to `98cr in FY2016E.
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Price (`)
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With the same level of ROE, when compared with Bata, the market leader in the footwear market, Relaxo trading at a reasonable valuation on EV/Sales providing a better investment opportunity.
February 3, 2014
Risks
Rise in raw material prices and depreciating rupee
A rise in the price of key raw materials EVA and rubber can adversely impact the profitability of the company. Rubber prices have fallen in last quarter, which was in favor of the company; however, if they again start to head northwards, then the companys profitability could get hampered. Also, Relaxo imports its entire EVA requirement for which the average price in last quarter was ~`140/kg. Any depreciation in the rupee could pose a serious risk to the operating margin and thereby impact profitability of the company.
( ` /Kg)
210 190
219
(USD/INR)
230
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Jan-14
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The company
Relaxo is a key player in the retail footwear industry, with a strong foothold in the slippers market targeting the footwear needs of ~1.2bn people of India. It has 8 manufacturing units, a portfolio of ~10 brands and ~50,000 retailers and distributors. The company presently has 168 company-owned outlets across India, with a concentrated presence in Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. It has nine manufacturing plants, seven in Bahadurgarh (Haryana) and one each in Bhiwadi (Rajasthan) and Haridwar (Uttaranchal). Currently, the company sells its products under three major brands Hawaii, Flite and Sparx.
February 3, 2014
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10
54 23 (4) (14) 14 73 (46) 0 1 (2) (47) 0 (11) (2) (14) (27) (1) 2 1
115 32 (34) (38) (9) 65 (16) 0 0 9 (7) 0 (31) (12) (2) (45) 14 3 17
146 35 (26) (48) (9) 99 (44) 0 0 9 (35) 0 (26) (12) (2) (40) 24 17 41
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Relaxo Footwears No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
February 3, 2014
13