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FROM THE EDITOR KSEB Engineers Association is organizing a seminar series on the role of phasor measurement units in Power

systems. The article appearing in this issue of LINEAGE on the subject has been lifted from a thesis paper published by a US university a few years ago. The limited purpose is to arouse curiosity of the reader in the new area of technology. Inquisitive seniors are requested to gather more information and share the knowledge with LINEAGE readers. There is a wide variety of fare included in the February issue, ranging from benefits of tea and exercise to sane counseling on behavior, survival, conjugal relations and other mundane matters. The prayer to God is a true self-assessment deserving a revered place in our lives, like a code of conduct for elders. Mobile mania is set to grow further, and the caution from the Malayalam novelist, Benyamin is timely. The theory of scarcity is illuminating. The poem, Bus in Thullal style is lent to us by guest writer, Er.Asokan, a batch-mate of Mohanan Nambiar at Palakad Engineering College. We gratefully appreciate the contributions from Ers. EC.Joseph, TC.Govindan, Suhair, KNC and Sasi. ENJOY READING! Damodaran Nayanar

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I have downloaded LINEAGE January2014; could not wait to read it. I would congratulate the Lineage team especially, the Art Editor as the journal is getting improved very much. Wish the LINEAGE will be able to bring out still better issues in 2014. V. Kunhiraman
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A SENIORS PRAYER
(I liked the prayer sent to me by a friend. We dont know who wrote it. I think life will be more peaceful if we follow it. E.C.Joseph)

My dear God, you know that I am growing older. Keep me from becoming too talkative, from repeating all my jokes and anecdotes and particularly, keep me from the tiresome habit of expressing an opinion on any subject. Release me from the craving to straighten out everyones affairs. Keep my mind free from recital of endless details; give me wings to get to the point. Give me the grace dear GOD, to listen to others as they describe their aches and pains. Help me endure the boredom with patience and keep my lips sealed; for my own aches and pains are increasing in number and intensity and the pleasure of discussing them is becoming sweeter as the years go by. Teach me the glorious lesson that occasionally I may be mistaken. Keep me reasonably sweet; I dont wish to be a saint (saints are hard to live with but sour old person is the work of Devil!) Make me thoughtful, but not moody; helpful but not pushy; independent, yet able to accept with graciousness, favours that others bestow on me. Free me of the notion that simply because I have lived a long time, I am wiser than those who have not lived so long. I am older, but not necessarily wiser! If I do not approve of some of the changes that have taken place in recent years, please give me the wisdom to keep my mouth shut. GOD, please know that when the end comes, I would like to have a friend or two left. Amen! (Recommended by: Er.E.C.Joseph)

Does Scarcity Scare You?


Do you remember the movie Space balls? There is a scene in which President Skroob, played by Mel Brooks, reaches into his desk drawer to open a can of clean Perri-air after assuring a news agency that there is absolutely no air shortage whatsoever. While it may seem ludicrous that there would ever be a scarcity of clean air, living in polluted cities such as Beijing, Manila, or Los Angeles shows that clean air is not as abundant as it once was. For most of us, it is hard to imagine an abundant society. Abundance sounds nice. The concept of living in an abundant world feels good. No more worries about survival. Access to everything we may need or want .However, unless you are part of the group of people that comprise the top 0.1% of economic income, the reality of an abundant world feels like a pipe dream. The opposite of abundance is scarcity. Most people are familiar with scarcity scarcity of money, time, and meaning for the more fortunate or food, water, and shelter for the least. A cursory glance at the conditions of human life on earth might conclude that we live in a scarce world, but is that really true? If one defines scarcity as an insufficiency or shortness of supply, then it should be fairly easy to distinguish whether we live in a scarce world. We simply ask the question, is there enough of x to meet the needs of all human beings? Lets see. Statistics show that there are an estimated 925 million hungry people in the world, which would imply that food is scarce. However, the world produces 2,720 kilocalories per person per day of food, more than enough to feed everyone on the planet. Food is not scarce. Statistics show that approximately 630,000 people in the United States are homeless, which

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would imply that housing is scarce. However, there are over 19 million vacant homes in the United States, more than enough to house all those living on the streets. Housing is not scarce either. It seems as though there is enough supply to meet the need for both food and housing, yet the reality for many people is that they are both scarce. They simply do not have the money to afford these basic necessities. Is money scarce? Statistics show the amount of government and personal debt in the United States is now more than $34 trillion dollars, which would imply a lack of money. However, there is about $10 trillion dollars in the money supply. Wait one second! Money is scarce! And when you investigate why, you will find that it is not scarce by accident. Due to the manner in which money comes into existence through interestbearing debt, money is always in short supply. This is because when loans are made, only the principal is created, while the corresponding interest must be found in the marketplace in a never ending competition to avoid bankruptcy. And herein lies the problem. Why would the resource required for sustaining life in this economy be purposefully made scarce? (If we look hard enough, we may even find the source of our competitive world as well.) Abundance is the enemy of a free market economy. One need only attempt to sell an abundant resource (i.e. sand at the beach) to realize the futility in that endeavour. In the free market system, goods must be scarce so that people would be willing to buy them. Long ago, entertainment, in the form of community gatherings, singing groups, and town festivals was abundant and free. Today, most people purchase entertainment through television, movies, sports, and concerts making the entertainment business a multi-billion dollar industry. From entertainment to child care to bottled water, many modern products and services that were once abundant and free have been made scarce and consequently are able to be bought and sold. But are there examples of things that were once scarce that have become abundant, and what kind of impact did that have? Thirty years ago, a gigabyte (GB) of data storage was very scarce. It fetched a hefty sum close to half a million dollars. Today a GB of data storage costs about seven cents retail and as low as three cents wholesale. Storing a digital copy of a two-hour movie costs less than a dime. While still not free and as abundant as air, many companies such as Google, YouTube, Face book, and Drop box offer many gigabytes of free personal storage to any user with an e-mail address. Data storage is now abundant. This abundance of data storage has led to a revolution in global communications that is connecting the human race unlike ever before. People are now able to upload and share digital content on what would have been considered to be an unimaginable scale just a few decades ago, causing a huge leap in the extension of human empathy globally. This is not the first time that new technologies created abundance that transformed society. As Jeremy Rifkin writes in The Empathic Civilization:

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Before print, people shared their thoughts together orally, in face-to-face dialogue and exchange. The print revolution helped nurture a more meditative environment The mnemonic redundancy of oral communication and the subjective eccentricities of medieval script were replaced by a more rational, calculating, analytical approach to knowledge_ This shift in consciousness prepared the way for a new idea of human progress [and the Industrial Revolution]. The emergence of free, ubiquitous sharing of information, the dawn of the information age, and the ability for people the world to connect, and share ideas has created a unifying force with the potential to transform civilization itself. That is if we can create abundant energy. Despite being around for a century, energy is becoming scarcer, as evidenced by the steady rise of gas prices. Additionally, oil pollution resulting from the Deepwater Horizon spill and higher CO2 concentrations from the filthy Alberta Tar Sands pose other ecologically-transparent, yet economically-hidden, costs. If this trend continues, fewer people will be able to afford to drive cars, heat their homes, and even buy food. However, the world uses an estimated 16 terawatts of electricity annually solar power has the potential to produce 6,000 times current global production, certainly enough to create abundant energy. Abundant, distributed, clean energy is the key to a just and sustainable world. With abundant energy, there can be abundant water. With abundant water, there can be abundant food. The time is now to abandon rigid ideologies and theories of an invisible hand promising an elusive global prosperity and embrace the obvious necessity to transform our energy infrastructure to allow for the sharing of clean, distributed, abundant energy. Let us embrace new ways of thinking, explore new economic systems and living arrangements that promote abundance, and keep the cans of clean air relegated to space of satirical comedies.
Courtesy: sustainableman.org A Suhair

Am I with the Right Person?


During a seminar, a woman asked," How do I know if I am with the right person?" The author then noticed that there was a large man sitting next to her so he said, "It depends. Is that your partner?" In all seriousness, question she answered "How do you know?" Let me answer this because the chances are good that it's weighing on your mind replied the author. Here's the answer. Every relationship has a cycle In the beginning; you fall in love with your partner. You anticipate their calls, want their touch, and like their idiosyncrasies. Falling in love wasn't hard. In fact, it was a completely natural and spontaneous experience. You didn't have to do anything. That's why it's called "falling" in love.
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People in love sometimes say, "I was swept of my feet." Picture the expression. It implies that you were just standing there; doing nothing, and then something happened to you. Falling in love is a passive and spontaneous experience. But after a few months or years of being together, the euphoria of love fades. It's a natural cycle of every relationship. Slowly but surely, phone calls become a bother (if they come at all), touch is not always welcome (when it happens), and your spouse's idiosyncrasies, instead of being cute, drive you nuts. The symptoms of this stage vary with every relationship; you will notice a dramatic difference between the initial stage when you were in love and a much duller or even angry subsequent stage. At this point, you and/or your partner might start asking, "Am I with the right person?" And as you reflect on the euphoria of the love you once had, you may begin to desire that experience with someone else. This is when relationships breakdown. The key to succeeding in a relationship is not finding the right person; it's learning to love the person you found. People blame their partners for their unhappiness and look outside for fulfillment. Extramarital fulfillment comes in all shapes and sizes. Infidelity is the most common. But sometimes people turn to work, a hobby, friendship, excessive TV, or abusive substances. But the answer to this dilemma does not lie outside your relationship. It lies within it. I'm not saying that you couldn't fall in love with someone else. You could. And temporarily you'd feel better. But you'd be in the same situation a few years later. Because (listen carefully to this): The key to succeeding in a Relationship is not finding the right person; it's learning to love the person you found. Sustaining love is not a passive or spontaneous experience. You have to work on it day in and day out. It takes time, effort, and energy. And most importantly, it demands wisdom. You have to know What to Do to make it work. Make no mistake about it. Love is not a mystery. There are specific things you can do (with or without your partner), Just as there are physical laws of the universe (such as gravity), there are also laws for relationships. If you know how to apply these laws, the results are predictable. Love is therefore a "decision". Not just a feeling. Remember this always: God determines who walks into your life. It is up to you to decide who you let walk away, who you let stay, and who you refuse to let go.
- A Suhair

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kLvU \OLO SfOWL


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Source : Manorama Spotted by T.C.Govindan

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ZpcnXao _v bm{X!
Nodnmp hcpsmcp _ns\ \nnnm ]mSps]tSWw F Fkv Fsmcp t_mUpsn {`m \mb IWstbmSmw \nnb _n Ibdnm hnZyIf\h[n ImotSWw sslPn {]mhoWyw thWw spI XmnbItsm Hmbn Im InfnbpsS XSh BWpw s]patXotSWw bm{Xmcn NnecmIs Xebn Xpw s\n sImpw tkmdn ]dhs\mgnbptcw XncnsI sImm tXmpIbn cmpsmcp apm kon Ibdnbncpm ZpcnXw Xs apm kon apm `mKw Hcph ImephnSnbncnpw A]c hm ISpInSt]mepw \onbncnm Iqmn \ny\hs I\nhnencpm hfhn Xncnhn Xmsg hogpw Imen app \nhms\mpw hnp Xcn apnse kopw hrmcpw K`nWnamcpw t]dpw ZpcnXw Ip klnm s]pmbv \onb kopI hncpXm Nne ItdoSpw ]nsbpdw XIrXnbnemIpw kv{XoI Ips\ \nevptcw Ipns\sbmtnb s]n\v kov sImSpms\mcphfpan hnIemwK X thZ\sbmpw Insp hcpnopw apv aSnsnb Nnetcm _n\Ipw XmgvnbnSn ASnhkv{X ImWpwhn[aXv hopw s]mnpnspw Fsmcp hjf Fp \n\v h\nXI IpI ]qnfbpw ASnhkv{Xn\p ep_v[X Impw t`mjm Nne thsdbpapv Imen ]nb sNfnbpw thpw am\ymcpsS XpWnbn Nmpw Xp, No NpabptmcpsS A`ntjIfpanmXn XpWnsbmcpIjvWwtambn shm Iqmnob`ntjIm knI tXmfn XqnbnSptm ISt]mepw Xqphenpw NoInan\pnb apSnbn hncepI tImp henpw asmcpIq skt^mWns Ie]nesbmw IItTmcw ]mpw shpw ImnbpSppw tXmknbpambv Xnnn hcm\psmcph Iymnmsmcp t]\bpambn _lfw, Ielw IIvS FhnsSbdn, FhnsStmWw, Nndbnt NmXo? Nnd \Im ssI \optm t]\pm In hcbvpw ambm tcJI Ipmbn km\nXp Zpe`a XncnsIsbmp ]dm ]ns Imdn t]mIm Iev]noSpw Hcphn[ans\ eyw Im NmSnbndm\m e`npw Hcp skv ]ngsmIn InfnbpsS ]pfnb hmpI tImw NmSnbndn shfntb hm BhpIbn \Sms\mpw XSnsbmnncn tISmbmepw Poh t]mbnsXp `mKyw ******************************* \mt\m Imdo\mn hm ImWw hnpw hmpsamscw

Er.F.F.AtimI
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It is never too late to start fixing your life


It was their anniversary, and Reshma was waiting for her husband Rajiv to show up. Things had changed since their marriage, the once cute couple couldn't-live-without-eachother had turned bitter. Fighting over every little things, both didn't like the way things had changed. Reshma was waiting to see if Rajiv remembered it was their anniversary! Just as the doorbell rang she ran to find her husband wet and smiling with a bunch of flowers in his hand. The two started re-living the old days. Making up for fights. And it was raining outside! It was perfect. But the moment paused when the phone in the bedroom rang. Reshma went to pick it up and it was a man. "Hello ma'am I'm calling from the police station. Is this Mr Rajiv Mehra's number?" "Yes it is!" "I'm sorry ma'am; but there was an accident and a man died. We got this number from his wallet; we need you to come and identify his body." Reshma's heart sank. She was shocked! But my husband is here with me?" "Sorry ma'am, but the incident took place at 2 pm, when he was boarding the train." Reshma was about to lose her conscience. How could this happen?! She had heard about the soul of the person coming to meet a loved one before it leaves! She ran into the other room. He was not there. It was true! He had left her for good!! Oh God she would have died for another chance to mend every little fight! She rolled on the floor in pain. She lost her chance! Forever! Suddenly there was a noise from the bathroom, the door opened and Rajiv came out and said "Darling, I forgot to tell you my wallet got stolen today". Life might not give you a second chance. So never waste a moment when you can still make up for your wrongs.

No one is promised tomorrow. Have a wonderful life with no regrets! Suhair

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Well, You Could Have..


An elderly lady decided to give herself a big treat for her 70th birthday by staying overnight in a really nice luxurious hotel. When she checked out the next morning, the desk clerk handed her a bill for $250.00. She demanded to know why the charge was so high. "I agree it's a nice hotel, but the rooms aren't worth $250.00 for just an overnight stay - I didn't even have breakfast!" The clerk told her that $250.00 is the 'standard rate,' and breakfast had been included had she wanted it. She insisted on speaking to the Manager. The Manager appeared and, forewarned by the desk clerk, announced: "This hotel has an Olympic-sized pool and a huge conference centre which are available for use." "But I didn't use them." ''Well, they are here, and you could have." He went on to explain that she could also have seen one of the in-hotel shows for which they were so famous."We have the best entertainers from the world over performing here." "But I didn't go to any of those shows." "Well, we have them, and you could have." No matter what amenity the Manager mentioned, she replied, "But I didn't use it!" and the Manager countered with his standard response. After several minutes of discussion, and with the Manager still unmoved, she decided to pay, wrote a check and gave it to him. The Manager was surprised when he looked at the check. "But Madam, this check is for only $50.00" "That's correct" she replied "I charged you $200.00 for sleeping with me." "But I didn't sleep with you madam!" said the manager "Well, too bad, I was here, and you could have."
Suhair

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The cup that cheers


Business promoters often use scientific observation selectively to mislead the public and to augment sales of their products. Drink more coffee to lower the risk of gall stones; Drink alcohol to protect against heart attacks and bad cholesterol; Drink more tea to lower the risk disease, stroke and cancer. these are just a few examples. Green tea, white tea, black tea and pure tea are all derived from the plant camellia sinensis, native to China and India. Tea has for a long time been considered a healthy drink, full of flavonoids and other goodies like anti-oxidants with a wide spectrum of possible health benefits reducing risk of cardio-vascular diseases, stroke, cancer, obesity, infections, osteoporosis, hyper-tension, neurological disorders, cognitive impairment and so on. Tea, especially green tea has more than 30 poly phenols and catechin called epi gallo catechin(EPG), that act in human system in positive ways. Tea is the most widely consumed beverage after water. There are studies that indicate that excessive consumption of tea may cause osteo-porosis, Alzheimers disease, digestive disorder, pre-menstrual syndrome, cardio-vascular problem, urinary system disturbance, sleeplessness, kidney stones, nervous disorder and so on. Adverse effects are caused by the presence of fluorides, aluminium, tannins, oxalates and caffeine in tea leaves. Excessive consumption of tea could cause chromosomal damage, foetal lukaemia and liver damage. Risk of getting prostate cancer is higher in men who drink more than 7cups of tea per day. Marketing hype drowns all negative findings; the industry controls the sponsored (and paid?) research to make profits. Our children are already irresistibly drawn to junk food that the doctors consider unfit for human consumption, by aggressive propaganda. Dissemination of unbalanced information is harmful; undeserving glorification is unethical. There is no conclusive evidence that tea and green tea will reduce risk of dreaded diseases. Medical research do not recommend for or against the use of tea to reduce cancer risk. No doubt, tea leaves are nutritionally good, like many other leaves we use in our diet, but the tall claims are clearly commercially motivated. A little tea may be good; more of it need not necessarily be better.
(Excerpts from Hindu article by Dr. Ramaprasad)

LAUGH
Readers Digest A woman tells her priest, Father, I have a problem. My two female parrots only say, Hi, Cutie. Wanna have some fun? Dont worry, says the priest. I have two male parrots who only pray and read Bible. Well put them in the same cage your parrots are sure to stop saying that horrid phrase. The next day, the woman takes her parrots to the priests home. The male parrots are inside their cage, holding rosary beads and praying. When the woman places the female parrots in the cage, they cry out, Hi, Cutie, Wanna have some fun? One male says to the other, Put the beads away, Frank. Our prayers have been answered.

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NURSERY RHYME
Johny, Johny! Lot of tension? Too much work? Family life? BP, Sugar? Yearly bonus? Annual Pay? Personal life? Promotion, Incentive? Yes, Papa, Yes, Papa, Yes, Papa. No, Papa. Yes, Papa. Joke, Papa. Low, Papa. Lost, Papa. Ha, Ha, Ha!!! (Face Book)

EXERCISE CAN BE AS GOOD AS PILLS


Michelle Roberts (BBC)

Short regular bouts of exercise could add years to your life,-say experts. British Medical Journal looked at hundreds of trials involving 340000 patients to assess the merits of exercise and drugs in preventing death. Physical activity rivaled some heart drugs and out-performed some stroke medicine. The findings suggest exercise should be added to prescriptions. Experts stress that patients should not ditch their drugs for exercise, - rather, they should use both in tandem. Few adults currently get enough exercise. Only a third of people do the moderate-intensity activities like, cycling and fast walking for two and a half hour or more per week as recommended. Exercise with pills has been the subject of many researchers across the globe. The study involves managing heart disease, stroke rehabilitation, heart failure and pre-diabetes. Experts agree that exercise and drugs were comparable in terms of death rates. There were two exceptionsDiuretics were the clear winner for heart failure patients and Exercise was best for stroke patients.

CHARITY
You can look at charity in different perspectives. Here are a few revelations: I dont believe in charity; I believe in solidarity. Charity is vertical; it goes from the top to the bottom. Solidarity is horizontal; it respects the other person. I have a lot to learn from other people.
-Eduardo Galeono. Rationalhub.com

Charity is the easiest means to get acknowledged, appreciated, honored and rewarded. It may lessen the intensity of the feeling of guilt in the givers heart, thats all. In fact, such charity perpetuates poverty. (Face Book)

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SYNCHRO-PHASORS AND SMART GRID


Electric Power system accounts for a critical part of our societys energy infrastructure. Over the years, we have grown to depend on the near-perfect reliability of these systems that have become a necessary part of our everyday lives. When we enter a room, we instinctly reach for the light switch, without the slightest concern that it wont turn on. All our household appliances, commercial devices and all our tools and equipments ranging from construction site to offices require electricity for operation. It is not as if we assume electricity will always be available; it is that we believe electricity will always be available. This kind of reliability doesnt happen without a great deal of effort from individuals such as engineers and larger bodies such as electric utilities, Universities and government organizations. One of the key aspects to maintaining the reliability of a large system such as the electrical power grid, is finding a way to provide a feedback to those who control it. Finding a way to accurately monitor the system has been the goal of engineers for a major portion of life of our electric grid. If system operators can be provided with appropriate information regarding the condition of the system, then they can use that information to make decisions, that will improve not only the day-to-day reliability of the system but allow for engineers to plan more effectively for the future. State estimation is a facet of electric power engineering that has evolved out of these needs. Engineers began developing ways to monitor their systems from a central control room. They developed communication systems to collect measurement information across systems and developed system models that could portray the structure of the network. A computer then took in all information and computed an optimized portrait of the system operating conditions called the system state. With this set of information, an adequately trained professional could understand everything that is going on in the system and make operation and control decisions accordingly. Many technologies have come along after the inception of state estimation that have improved its performance and drove it to become an integral part of the control center operations. Phasor Measurement Unit (PMU) will serve as the next step in improving the quality of the estimate of the system state, providing operator with better information to achieve a high level of system reliability. While the PMUs are still more noticeably expensive, the gains of monitoring the transmission part with the newer time-synchronized measurement devices stands to outweigh the financial drawbacks. The state of the system can be defined as the minimum set of parameters that must be known to fully perceive the operating conditions of the system. When applied to electric power systems, the system state is a set of complex voltages at every node of the network. In conjunction with the network topology and impedances (which are constant and known), every line flow or injection can be calculated. In the past operators collected a set of incomplete and unsynchronized measurements, which they would subsequently insert into a load flow calculation in an attempt to find the operating point of the system. This was very inexact and most times led to divergence of load flow equations. As the size and complexity of the system grows, it becomes exceedingly more important for system operators to know how the system is behaving. This becomes most evident when simple contingencies occur, cascades to neighboring systems and eventually cause large blackouts. In most historic examples, the scale of black outs could have been reduced, if the system operators had more up-to-date information regarding their systems operating conditions. PMUs are digital metering devices that use a DFT algorithm with a precisely timed GPS signal to provide synchronized phasor values at different locations in the power system. The technology can generate synchronized measurements, despite the large distances that separate the metering points. PMU output is accurately time-stamped voltage and current phasors. The theoretical accuracy of synchronization is better than 1microsecond. Waveform can be measured at a rate of 48 samples per cycle. IEEE has standardized protocols vide C37.118.1 for phasor estimation and C37.118.2 for communication. (Last revised in 2011) PMU technology has been successfully implemented in pilot and full-fledged projects. They have a great role in the future smart grid regime. They can be deployed to monitor remotely sensors and actuators at various points on the grid. They provide valuable Wide Area Situational Awareness. Successful integration of multigeneration sources like wind and solar with the grid will become easier, hopefully encouraging their fuller exploitation and leading to reduced dependence on traditional resources. PMU technology has the potential to change the economics of power delivery.
(Sources: Virginia Polytechnic thesis library, Smartgrid library, Wikipedia, IEEE.)

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HAPPENINGS
Kannur Er. A.V. Mohanan Nambiar relinquished the office of the secretary of the Kannur unit of the Senior Engineers. He had a long innings of 10 glorious years at the helm, spearheading pioneering initiatives and innovative programs. A new team for 2014 (with a few changes), elected in December 2013, was sworn in on 14.01.2014. There were pleas from several quarters that Er. Mohanan Nambiar should be nominated the program coordinator, to keep the Forum unit as virile as ever. Er. Nambiar later confessed to his secret ambition to organize another state meet of KSEB Senior Engineers at Kannur in 2014. Senior Engineers, Kannur decided to conduct a family visit to Barapole SHE Project (3x5 MW, under construction), for which Ers. Mohanan Nambiar and Thomas would be the joint conveners, on 11th February. The coach will leave Vaidyuthi Bhavanam at 0830hours. Those with nimble limbs can consider the challenging option to join a 1-hour trek into the deep forest for a rendezvous with Nature and Wild Life. -Nayanar

THE NEW TEAM WITH EDITOR Bring your mouse on each engineers right ear to know who is who

TIPS ON INVESTMENT IN SHARES- CXXVIII


The markets in January behaved quite unpredictably towards the end of the month. The sensex moved down from 21140 on 1st Jan to 21064 on 17th and the Nifty moved down from 6302 to 6262 during the same period. Thereafter both indices moved up to an all time intraday high of 21483 and 6346 on 23rd. The main driving force for the rally was the good third quarter performances of the companies and slight reduction in the value of inflation (6.16%) for Dec. However from there on in three days, sensex lost about 690 points due to news on tapering of market intervention by the U.S.Govt. The economic policy review by the Reserve Bank on 28th also did not aid the markets. Quite unexpectedly the repo and reverse repo rates were enhanced by the central bank in a bid
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to contain inflation to a reasonable level. This will cause interest rates to be enhanced by banks and companies will find it difficult to manage funds required for their operations. Reserve Bank considered that reducing inflation is more important than development as inflation will affect everyone in the country. The sensex was moving in a range of 20550and 21500 during the month. This could be a consolidation phase before the next up move. This will imply that the medium term up trend from17448 has one more leg to go. A strong close above 21500 is required for this to be right. It is also possible that the move from 17448 is in its final stage and forming a terminal pattern. Continued sideways movements between 20500and 21500 followed by a break below 20000 will mean that the index has topped out and is headed lower in the medium term. However a strong move below 20000 is needed to show a down trend. The Nifty reached a high of 6346before reversing lower. The index is moving in the range of 6130 and 6415 during the month. A strong close above 6420 is required for keeping the medium term trend to make a rally. Otherwise the index will continue to move in the range. Only a strong close below 5900 will make the medium term trend negative. The next Loksabha election and subsequent formation of a Govt will have strong effects on the market. A strong govt. will cause uptrend in the markets. An unstable govt will affect the markets severely. Every investor should track their portfolios and decide on the course of action to be taken very keenly in the coming days. Till the formation of the govt the markets are very likely to continue their movements in a range bound manner. knc

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