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The agenda
The global trends Latest ME renewable forecast Country reviews
Morocco Algeria Egypt Saudi Arabia and the GCC
Renewables 13%
Source: Siemens
The MENA region has some of the highest solar irradiation levels in the world, as well as vast tracts of uninhabited desert to build capacity on. Its solar potential is enormous. Technically, it could meet its own and the rest of the worlds power requirements through solar energy. Studies in Oman have shown that concentrated solar power (CSP) infrastructure covering just 0.1 per cent of its land mass, would generate sufficient power for all the sultanates annual electricity demand. The regions wind potential is also considerable. From Morocco in the west to Oman in the east, there are numerous locations with excellent wind profiles and high wind speeds.
50,000
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10,000
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Tunisia
Libya
Egypt Jordan
Oman
Qatar
Abu Dhabi
20,000
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Libya
Egypt Jordan
Iraq
Morocco
Possible tripling in renewable energy capacity by 2020 to 6,300MW Regulatory code in place Wind the key factor.
Morocco
Morocco offers considerable renewable potential, having some of the highest wind speeds and solar irradiation levels anywhere. On its coastline, solar irradiation levels range from 4.7 kilowatt hours (kWh) a square metre a day to 5.3kWh a square metre a day, while inland they can exceed 5.55kWh a square metre a day. The kingdom has two major wind corridors. The first runs inland from Tetouan to Agadir, while a second follows the coastline from Tarfaya to Lagouria. Wind speeds in the north on the Atlantic coast average between 8-11.5 metres a second and 7-8.5 metres a second in the south. To meet peak demand growth that has averaged 6.5 per cent in recent years and to serve the growing needs of an ongoing rural electrification programme, Rabat estimates that installed generating capacity will have to increase to about 15,000MW by 2020, from 6,128MW in 2009. In addition to a significant increase in wind and solar capacity, the governments plan includes 1,000MW of nuclear capacity, which is scheduled to be commissioned in 2020.
Algeria
Potentially the largest renewable energy market in North Africa with more than 4,000MW of new capacity possible by 2020 Institutional structure in place Government has finance to support expansion
Egypt
The most ambitious plans in North Africa and considerable wind potential Only fraction of plan will be delivered by 2020: about 2,000MW Financial and governance issues
Egypt
Going forward, wind and solar will be the mainstays of the renewable energy sector. Egypt benefits from very favourable wind conditions, especially along the western coastline of the Gulf of Suez, where wind speeds average 8-10 metres a second and the land is largely uninhabited desert. Other promising sites include to the east and west of the Nile near Beni Suef and Minya, and the ElKharga oasis in the New Valley governorate, which has wind speeds in the range of 7-8 metres a second. Solar also offers considerable potential, with Egypt having irradiation levels above 1,800 kilowatt hours (kWh) a square metre a year. Cairo has high hopes for renewables, which are targeted to make up 20 per cent of the total energy mix by 2020. With capacity projected to increase to 50,000MW to meet average peak demand growth of 7.5 per cent a year, this would mean renewable capacity would have to climb to 10,000MW. Given that there is virtually no scope for increasing hydroelectric capacity above the current 2,800MW, wind and solar energy will have to deliver at least 7,200MW if the target is to be met.
KA CARE policy now being defined First round of 600-800MW to be put out to tender this year Pluralistic approach to procurement
KA CARE SEC Saudi Aramco Municipalities Pilots
Saudi Arabia
In April 2010, a royal decree was issued establishing the King Abdullah Centre for Atomic & Renewable Energy (Ka-Care) to oversee what could potentially be the regions biggest alternative energy programme. . One of the core components of Ka-Care is renewables, which aims to meet peak load demand. Ka-Cares focus is very much on solar, which has substantial potential in the kingdom as a result of its high radiation levels and vast land area. Ka-Care is tentatively looking at up to 20,000MW of solar capacity by 2030. The main driver is the kingdoms increasing dependence on crude feedstock for power generation as gas becomes less available. The government estimated in 2010 that unless action was taken, domestic demand for petroleum products would more than double to 8.3 million barrels of oil equivalent a day (boe/d) in 2028, from 3.4 million boe/d in 2010. This would jeopardise the kingdoms ability to meet global oil demand.
Saudi - solar
Saudi Arabia has considerable solar potential as a result of high irradiation levels and a substantial land area. Its technical solar potential is estimated at 125,000 terawatt hours (TWh) a year, which ranks it just behind Algeria in the Middle East and North Africa (Mena) region. The kingdoms irradiation levels are twice the European average at 2,200kWh a square metre a year and, in places, can reach 2,550kWh a square metre a year. Saudi Arabia currently has no large-scale solar projects, with all existing plants being below 1MW. Even recent projects, such as the first Showa/Aramco plant which was commissioned in August 2011, have tended to have capacities of about 0.5MW. However, plant capacities are gradually increasing. Showa/Aramco and SEC are now looking to build a 15MW PV plant on Farasan island. Separately, a 3.5MW PV plant for Aramco was under construction by Phoenix Solar in August 2011 besides the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies & Research Centre in Riyadh. Details of Ka-Cares solar energy programme had still to be unveiled, with sources close to the agency expecting a formal announcement to be made by the end of 2011. Initially, Ka-Care is expected to procure 4,000MW of solar capacity on an independent power project (IPP) basis. The initial projects are likely to cover a range of sizes and technologies, including PV and CSP, allowing the kingdom to build up experience and establish prices for solar power.
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