Swine Flu

Target audience: Algebra II

Collect data as a class

Objective: To collect and analyze data that models an exponential function.

Materials Needed: Graphing Calculator, student numbers and lab sheets

Introduce the Experiment: Describe the exploration. Tell the students that you
will use

Organize the Data Collection:

As the students enter the classroom give them a card with a number on it from 1 to
the number of students in the class. Use the graphing calculator to generate the
data.

Use randInt( ) to generate random numbers from 1 to the total

number of students in the class. Type in randInt(1, total number of
students in class), press enter. The student with that number comes
up to the front and he/she is the student that has been exposed to
the bacteria. Enter 1 for # of people infected on day 0 on the lab sheet.
That student presses enter on the calculator and the next student comes
up, and then they enter 2 for # of people infected on day 1. For day 2,
the students who are infected press enter on the calculator and those
students
whose numbers appear, come up to the front and they are now infected.
Enter
the total number of students up front for day 2. Continue until all or almost
all of the students have been infected.

The second half of the activity uses Swine Flu data to allow the students extra
practice finding the equation by hand and using exponential regression.
NAME____________________________________________________________DATE__________________

The Swine Flu Epidemic

In this lab, we will use a model to examine the spread of an infectious disease, in this case,
the Swine Flu.

1. Enter the class data in this table.

Da
To
tal
y
0
Nu
mb
1
er

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

2. Make a scatter plot of your data (Day, Total Number), from day 0 to day 16. Be sure to
label your axes and your scale.
 3. Find the model that describes your data (without your calculator)

4. Now use your calculator to find the

exponential regression equation.

5. Graph your data, your by hand equation, and the regression equation all in the same
window. How do the two equations compare with the data?

6. The following data shows the total number of Swine Flu cases for 2009.

US Swine Flu Cases

Week Number of Cases Week Number of Cases
17 1315 23 20370
18 3696 24 28422
19 5375 25 38046
20 7499 26 55331
21 10464 27 77202
22 14600 28 122619

7. Make a scatter plot of this data in the grid provided.

8. Find an equation (by hand, using 2 points) to model the Swine Flu growth. Show all
steps.
9. Use your calculator to find the exponential regression equation that models the growth
of the Swine Flu. Record the equation here.

10. Compare the values of a in the 2 equations. Compare the values of b in the 2
equations.

11. Assuming the Swine Flu continues to grow at this rate, predict the number of Swine Flu
cases there will be during week 32.
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8
9 1 1 1
0 1 2
1 1 1 1
3 4 5 6
1 1 1 2
7 8 9 0
2 2 2 2
1 2 3 4
2 2 2 2
5 6 7 8
2 3 3 3
9 0 1 2