Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 21

Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6

Chapter 6 Solutions

Develop Your Skills 6.1
1. Claim about the population: salaries of graduates from the Business programs earn
$40,000 a year.
Sample result: sample mean is $39,368 for a random sample of 35 graduates
If the colleges claim is true, sample means of one-year-after-graduation salaries
would be normally distributed, with a mean of $40,000 and a standard deviation of
$554.

The sample mean is lower than expected. We need to calculate P( x s$39,368)


1271 . 0
) 14 . 1 (
554
40000 39368
) 39368 (
=
s =
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s
z P
z P
x P

It would not be highly unlikely to get a sample mean salary as low as $39,368, if the
colleges claim about salaries is true. Since this is not an unexpected result, we do not
have reason to doubt the colleges claim.

2. Claim about the population: at least 90% of customers would recommend the centre
to friends
Sample result: sample proportion is 87%, for 300 randomly-selected customers
If the centres claim is true, sample proportions would be normally distributed, with a
mean of 0.90 and a standard deviation of 0.01732.

The sample proportion is lower than expected. We need to calculate P(SRs0.87)


0418 . 0
) 73 . 1 (
01732 . 0
90 . 0 87 . 0
) 87 . 0 (
=
s =
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s
z P
z P
p P


The probability of getting a sample proportion as low as 95% is just a little over 4%
(which is less than our cut-off of 5%). This is an unusual sample result, and not one
we would expect if the actual proportion of satisfied customers is 90%. Therefore, the
sample provides evidence to doubt the centres ad about the proportion of satisfied
customers.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 108
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
There are two things to note here. First, 87% does not seem to be so far from 90%, so
you might have been surprised at the result of the probability calculation. This should
serve as a caution. You cannot make a decision about how far away a sample result
is from what is expected, until you actually do a probability calculation.

The other point is that although the proportion of satisfied customers may not be 90%,
from the sample evidence, we suspect it will be around 87% or so. This suggests that
although the centres claim may not be specifically correct, it still has a high
percentage of satisfied customers.

3. Desired characteristic about the population: no more than 25% of employees would
enrol in education programs
Sample result: sample proportion is 26%, for 500 randomly-selected customers
If the population percentage is actually 25%, sample proportions would be normally
distributed, with a mean of 0.25 and a standard deviation of 0.021651.

The sample proportion is higher than expected. We need to calculate P(SR>0.26)


3228 . 0
6772 . 0 1
) 46 . 0 (
021651 . 0
25 . 0 26 . 0
) 26 . 0 (
=
=
> =
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>
z P
z P
p P


The probability of getting a sample proportion as high as 26%, when the population
proportion is actually 25%, is over 32%. It would not be unusual to get such a sample
proportion, if the actual population proportion is only 25%. The sample does not
provide enough evidence to conclude that the actual percentage of employees who
would enrol in such programs is more than 25%. On the basis of the sample results,
the company should conclude that it can afford the programs and extend the benefit.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 109
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
4. Claim about the population: average mark on the mid-term statistics exam for
students in the Business program is 67%.
Sample result: a random sample of 30 of the Business students taking statistics has an
average mark of 62%.
If the teachers claim is true, the sample means would be normally distributed, with a
mean of 67%, and a standard deviation of 3.2%

The sample mean is lower than expected. We need to calculate P( x 62).

0594 . 0
) 56 . 1 (
2 . 3
67 62
) 62 (
=
s =
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s
z P
z P
x P


The probability of getting a sample mean as low as 62%, if the true population mean is
actually 67%, is 0.0594. Such a sample result is not unusual. The sample does not
provide enough evidence to suggest that the teachers claim overestimates the true
average mark for the mid-term stats exam. Notice that the sample result is almost
unusual enough for us to doubt the teacher's claim. However, we have established a
rule for deciding when a sample result is unusual, and for long-run consistency in our
decisions, we should follow the rule.

5. Claim about the population: average commuting time is 32 minutes.
Sample result: a random sample of 20 commuters has an average commuting time of
40 minutes.
If the true average commuting time is 32 minutes, the sample means would be
normally distributed, with a mean of 32 minutes, and a standard deviation of 5
minutes.

The sample mean is higher than expected. We need to calculate P( x >40).


0548 . 0
9452 . 0 1
) 6 . 1 z ( P
5
32 40
z P
) 40 x ( P
=
=
> =
|
.
|

\
|
> =
>


The probability of getting a sample average commuting time as high as 40 minutes, if
the actual population average commuting time is 32 minutes, is 0.0548. This result
gives us pause. Such a sample result is not that usualit will happen with a
probability of only 5.48%. However, the cut-off we have decided to use for deciding
what is unusual is a probability of 5% or less. This sample result does not meet that
Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 110
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
test. So, in this case, the sample does not give us enough evidence to conclude that the
average commuting time has increased from 32 minutes.

You may not be entirely comfortable with this decision. We will discuss this point
further, when we talk about p-values (in Chapter 7). For now, stick to the rule, and
later, you will find out more about how these decisions are made.

Develop Your Skills 6.2
6. Claim about the population: average weight in cereal boxes is 645 grams.
Sample result: a random sample of 10 cereal boxes has an average weight of 648
grams.
We are told the cereal box weights are normally distributed, with o = 5 grams.
If the true average weight is 645 grams, the sample means would be normally
distributed, with a mean of 645, and a standard deviation of
10
5
grams.

0287 . 0
9713 . 0 1
) 90 . 1 z ( P
10
5
645 648
z P
) 648 x ( P
=
=
> =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>


If the cereal line were properly adjusted, the probability of getting a sample mean as
high as 648 grams is 0.0287. Yet we did get this unlikely result. We have evidence
that the cereal line is not working properly, and it should be adjusted.

7. Claim about the population: average salary of business program graduates one year
after graduation is at least $40,000 a year
Sample result: a random sample of 20 salaries of business program graduates one year
after graduation has an average $38,000.
We are told the salaries are normally distributed, with o = $3,300.
If the true average salary is $40,000, the sample means would be normally distributed,
with a mean of $40,000, and a standard deviation of
20
3300
.


0034 . 0
) 71 . 2 (
20
3300
40000 38000
) 38000 (
=
s =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s
z P
z P
x P

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 111
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6

If the true average salary were $40,000, it would be almost impossible to get a sample
mean as low as $38,000, under these conditions. Such a sample mean provides
evidence that the average salary of graduates of the business program one year after
graduation is less than $40,000.

8. Claim about the population: average tire life is 25,000 kilometres.
Sample result: a random sample of 20 tires has an average life of 24,000 kilometres.
We are told nothing about the population of tires. Sample data are not provided, so we
cannot assess if the sample appears to be normally distributed. A sample size of 20 is
not large enough to ensure normality of the sampling distribution unless the population
is fairly normal. Without more information, we cannot proceed.

9. Claim about the population: it takes 1.5 working days on average to approve loan
requests.
Sample result: a random sample of 64 loan requests has an average of 1.8 working
days.
We are told the population are normally distributed, with o = 2.0.
If the true average time for a loan to be approved is 1.5 working days, the sample
means would be normally distributed, with a mean of 1.5, and a standard deviation of
64
2
.


1151 . 0
8849 . 0 1
) 2 . 1 z ( P
64
2
5 . 1 8 . 1
z P
) 8 . 1 x ( P
=
=
> =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>


If the claim about the average time to approve the loan requests is true, the probability
of getting this sample result would be 0.1151. This is not unusual, and so there is not
enough evidence to conclude that the bank understates the average amount of time to
approve loan requests.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 112
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
10. Claim about the population: mean weight of packages is 36.7 kg
Sample result: a random sample of 64 packages has an average weight of 32.1 kg
We are told the population are normally distributed, with o = 14.2 kg.
If the true average weight of packages is 36.7 kg, the sample means would be
normally distributed, with a mean of 36.7 kg, and a standard deviation of
64
2 . 14
.


0048 . 0
) 59 . 2 z ( P
64
2 . 14
7 . 36 1 . 32
z P
) 1 . 32 x ( P
=
s =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s


The probability of getting a sample mean weight as low as 32.1 kg, if the average
package weight is actually 36.7 kg, is only 0.0048. We would not expect to get this
sample result, but we did. The sample result provides evidence that the average
package weight may have decreased.

Develop Your Skills 6.3
11. This is not really a random sample. It excludes anyone who eats the cereal but does
not visit the website set up for the survey. As well, the sample is likely to be biased.
People who did not find a free ticket in their cereal box are probably more likely to
answer your survey. This sample data set cannot be reliably used to decide about the
proportion of cereal boxes with a free ticket.

12. Claim about the population: p = 0.97 (proportion of graduates to find jobs in their
fields within a year of graduation, from a particular college)
Sample result: a random sample of 200 students reveals 5% who do not have a job in
their field, so = 1 0.05 = 0.95 p

Sampling is done without replacement. Do we know that 200 graduates represent
not more than 5% of graduating class? We do not, and so should proceed with
caution. The binomial distribution may not be the appropriate underlying model
here. We proceed by noting our assumption: that the sample of 200 graduates is not
more than 5% of the graduating class.

Check conditions:
np = 200(0.97) = 194
nq = 200(0.03) = 6
nq is < 10 so normal approximation is not appropriate (the sampling distribution of
should not be used). p

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 113
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
In the sample 95% (200) = 190 graduates got jobs in their field within a year of
graduation.

Using Excel, we calculate P(x <= 190, n = 200, p = 0.97) = 0.080779359
If 97% of graduates find jobs in their field within a year of graduation, it would not be
unusual to get a sample result like this. The sample does not provide enough evidence
to suggest that the percentage of graduates getting jobs in their field a year after
graduation may be lower than claimed.

13. Claim about the population: p = 0.01 (proportion of defective tires is 1%)
Sample result: a random sample of 500 tires reveals 8/500 = 1.6% that are defective

Sampling is done without replacement. Presumably the company produces hundreds
of thousands of tires, so we can be fairly confident that 500 tires is not more than 5%
of the total population. The binomial probability distribution is still an appropriate
underlying model.

Check conditions:
np = 500(0.01) = 5
nq = 500(0.99) = 495
np < 10, so the sampling distribution of should not be used. p
Using Excel and the binomial distribution,
P(x > 8, n = 500, p = 0.01) = 0.132319866

A sample proportion like the one we got would not be unusual, if in fact 1% of the
tires are defective. There is not enough evidence to suggest that the rate of defective
tires is more than 1%.

Depending how the national survey was done, it might have had more response from
those with defective tires.

14. Claim about the population: p = 0.80 (percentage of people who prevent a cold from
developing, if he/she takes Cold-Over as soon as a sore throat/runny nose appear)
Sample result: a random sample of 300 patients just developing cold symptoms are
given Cold-Over, and 235 find the treatment successful

Sampling is done without replacement. If Cold-Over is widely available, we presume
that a very large number of people take the drug, and 300 patients is not more than 5%
of the total population. The binomial probability distribution is still an appropriate
underlying model.

check conditions
np = 300(0.80) = 240
nq = 300(0.20) = 60
both are > 10
Since n is fairly large, at 300, the sampling distribution of can be used. p
Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 114
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
Sampling distribution will be approximately normal, with
mean = p = 0.80
standard error =
300
) 20 . 0 )( 80 . 0 (
n
pq
=

783333333 . 0
300
235
p = =


2358 . 0
) 72 . 0 z ( P
300
) 20 . 0 )( 80 . 0 (
80 . 0 7833333 . 0
z P
) 7833333 . 0 p ( P
=
s =
|
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s


This sample result would not be unusual, if the success rate for Cold-Over was 80%,
as claimed. The sample does not provide enough evidence to suggest that the
percentage of patients who take Cold-Over as directed and successfully prevent a cold
from developing is less than 80%

15. Claim about the population: p = 0.40 (percentage of retired people who eat out at
least once a week)
Sample result: a random sample of 150 retired people in your city reveals 44 who
eat out at least once a week

Sampling is done without replacement. If the city is fairly large, we can presume
that 150 retired people are not more than 5% of the total population of retired people.
The binomial probability distribution is still an appropriate underlying model.

Check conditions:
np = 150(0.40) = 60
nq = 150(0.60) = 90
both are > 10
Since n is fairly large, at 150, the sampling distribution of can be used. p
Sampling distribution will be approximately normal, with
mean = p = 0.40
standard error =
150
) 60 . 0 )( 40 . 0 (
n
pq
=

29333333 . 0
150
44
p = =

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 115
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6


0038 . 0
) 67 . 2 z ( P
150
) 60 . 0 )( 40 . 0 (
40 . 0 293333 . 0
z P
) 293333 . 0 p ( P
=
s =
|
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s


It would be very unusual to get a sample result such as this one, if in fact 40% of
retired people ate out at least once a week. The sample results suggest that fewer than
40% of retired people eat out at least once a week in your city.

However, before deciding whether or not to focus on retired people, it would be
important to know if this group tends to eat out more or less than other groups of
people. While the percentage of those who eat out more than once a week is
apparently lower in your city than in the survey, it still might be higher than for other
groups, and might still be a good target market.

Chapter Review Exercises
1. Your sketch should look something like the diagram below.


119.5 131.5 143.5 155.5 167.5 179.5 191.5 203.5 215.5






Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 116
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6

b. The sampling distribution of the sample means (samples of size 25) will be normally
distributed, because the heights in the population are normally distributed. The mean
of the sample means will be 167.5 cm, and the standard error will be 4 . 2
25
12
= cm.
The sampling distribution of the sample means will therefore be much narrower than
the population distribution of heights. It will have to be much taller as well, since the
total area under the distribution must be 1 (it is a probability distribution).

119.5 131.5 143.5 155.5 167.5 179.5 191.5 203.5 215.5


c. The sampling distribution of the sample means (samples of size 40) will be normally
distributed, because the heights in the population are normally distributed. The mean
of the sample means will be 167.5 cm, and the standard error will be
8974 . 1
40
12
= cm. It will be narrower still.

119.5 131.5 143.5 155.5 167.5 179.5 191.5 203.5 215.5

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 117
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
d. All three distributions are normally distributed, and all have a mean of 167.5 cm.
There is greatest variability in the population distribution of heights. The sampling
distribution of the means of 25 heights is much less variable, and the sampling
distribution of the means of 40 heights is the least variable.

2.
a. For individual heights:
1492 . 0
8508 . 0 1
) 04 . 1 (
12
5 . 167 180
) 180 (
=
=
> =
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>
z P
z P
x P


b. For samples of size 25:
0
) 21 . 5 (
25
12
5 . 167 180
) 180 (
~
> =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>
z P
z P
x P


c. For samples of size 40:
0
) 59 . 6 (
40
12
5 . 167 180
) 180 (
~
> =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>
z P
z P
x P


d. The answers are different because the distributions are different (as we saw in the
answer to Exercise 1). Individual heights are the most variable, and so it is possible
to find an individual student who is taller than 180 centimetres. However, it is much
harder to find an average height of 25 students that is greater than 180 centimetres.
This would require a sample with a lot of fairly tall students, and not too many short
ones. This is much less likely. Finally, it is very unlikely that an average height of 40
students would be greater than 180 centimetres, because about 85% of students are
shorter than that (see the answer to part a).

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 118
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
3. p = 0.86 (claimed proportion of those taking the pill who get relief within 1 hour)
p = 287/350 = 0.82
n = 350 (fairly large)

Sampling is done without replacement. Presumably, there are thousands and
thousands of back pain sufferers who take this medication, so it is still appropriate to
use the binomial distribution as the underlying model.

Check for normality:
np = 350(0.86) = 301 > 10
nq = 350(1-0.86) = 49 > 10

The binomial distribution could be approximated by a normal distribution, and so we
can use the sampling distribution of . p


0154 . 0
) 16 . 2 (
350
) 14 . 0 )( 86 . 0 (
86 . 0 82 . 0
) 82 . 0 (
=
s =
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s
z P
z P
p P


The probability of getting a sample result as extreme as the one we got, if the true
proportion of sufferers who get relief within one hour is 86%, is 0.0154, which is less
than 5%. The sample result qualifies as an unexpected or unusual event. Since we got
this sample results, we have enough evidence to suggest that fewer than 86% of back
pain sufferers who take this pill get relief within one hour.

4. p = 0.90 (claimed proportion customers who are satisfied with the range of food
served and prices)
= 438/500 = 0.876 p
n = 500 (fairly large)

Sampling is done without replacement. The sample size is fairly large, at 500. We
have no information about the total number of customers served by the cafeteria. As
long as this sample is no more than 5% of the total population of customers, it is
appropriate to use the binomial distribution as the underlying model. We proceed by
noting that we are making this assumption, and that the conclusions are not valid if
this assumption is not correct.

Check for normality:
np = 500 (0.90) = 450 > 10
nq = 500 (1 0.90) = 50 > 10
Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 119
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
The binomial distribution could be approximated by a normal distribution, so we can
use the sampling distribution of p .


0367 . 0
) 79 . 1 z ( P
500
) 10 . 0 )( 90 . 0 (
90 . 0 876 . 0
z P
) 876 . 0 p ( P
=
s =
|
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s


The probability of getting a sample proportion as low as 87.6%, if in fact 90% of
cafeteria customers were satisfied with the range of food served and prices, is less than
4%. Since we did get this unusual sample result, we have strong evidence that fewer
than 90% of cafeteria customers are satisfied the range of food served and prices.

5. p = 0.17 (% of Americans whose primary breakfast beverage is milk)
= 102/500 = 0.204 p
n = 500 (fairly large)

Sampling is done without replacement. The sample size is 500. There are millions of
Canadians who eat breakfast, and so the sample is certainly not more than 5% of the
population. It is appropriate to use the binomial distribution as the underlying model.

Check for normality:
np = 500 (0.17) =85 > 10
nq = 500 (1 0.17) = 415 > 10
The binomial distribution could be approximated by a normal distribution, so we can
use the sampling distribution of p .


0217 . 0
9783 . 0 1
) 02 . 2 (
016799 . 0
17 . 0 204 . 0
) 204 . 0 (
=
=
> =
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>
z P
z P
p P


There would not be much of a chance of getting a sample proportion as high as 20.4%
if the true proportion of Canadians who drink milk as the primary breakfast beverage
were actually 17%. The sample evidence gives us reason to think that the proportion
of Canadians who choose milk as their primary breakfast beverage may be higher than
the percentage of Americans who do so.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 120
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
6. p = 0.65 (% of visitors who had an enjoyable experience)
= 282/400 = 0.705 p
n = 400 (fairly large)

Sampling is done without replacement. The sample size is 400, but we are told the
attraction gets 50,000 visitors a year. 400 is less than 5% of the population of 50,000.
It is appropriate to use the binomial distribution as the underlying model.

Check for normality:
np = 400(0.65) = 260 > 10
nq = 400(1 0.65) = 140 > 10

The binomial distribution could be approximated by a normal distribution, so we can
use the sampling distribution of p .


0104 . 0
9896 . 0 1
) 31 . 2 (
023848 . 0
65 . 0 705 . 0
) 705 . 0 (
=
=
> =
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>
z P
z P
p P

There is only a very small probability of getting a sample result as extreme as this one,
if the percentage of visitors who had an enjoyable experience is 65%. The sample
provides evidence that the percentage of visitors who had an enjoyable experience has
increased. It seems reasonable to assume that the upgrades are the cause, but this is
not something that can be concluded directly from these data.

7. x = $756
o = $132
= $700 (the average cost of textbooks per semester for a college student)
n = 75
We are told that the population data are normally distributed, so the sampling
distribution will also be normal, with a mean of $500, and a standard error of
75
132
=
x
o .

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 121
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6

0001 . 0
9999 . 0 1
) 67 . 3 (
75
132
700 756
) 756 (
=
=
> =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>
z P
z P
x P

There is almost no chance of getting a sample mean as high as $756 if the population
average textbook cost is $700. The sample provides evidence that the average cost of
textbooks per semester for college students has increased.

8. x = $8400
o = $3700
= $7500 (the average total withdrawal at the ATM over the weekend)
n = 36
We are told to assume the population data are normally distributed, so the sampling
distribution will also be normal, with a mean of $7500, and a standard error of
36
3700
x
= o .


0721 . 0
9279 . 0 1
) 46 . 1 (
36
3700
7500 8400
) 8400 (
=
=
> =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>
z P
z P
x P


If the true average total withdrawal is $7500, the probability of getting a sample mean
total withdrawal of $8400 is 0.0721. This sample result is not unexpected enough to
conclude that the bank managers claim about the total average withdrawal over the
weekend is too low.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 122
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
9. Start by analyzing the sample data set.
x = 6188.3875 hours
s = 234.6176
= 6200 hours (claimed average lifespan of electronic component)
n = 40

Histogram of sample data is shown below.


0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

C
o
m
p
o
n
e
n
t
s
LifespaninHours
LifespansofaRandom Sampleof40
ElectronicComponents



The histogram appears to be fairly normal, with some skewness to the right. The
sample size is fairly large, at 40, so it seems likely the sampling distribution would be
normally distributed. The sampling distribution would have a mean of 6200, and a
standard error of
40
6176 . 234
=
x
o .

We are told to assume o = s = 234.6176.


3783 . 0
) 31 . 0 (
40
6176 . 234
6200 3875 . 6188
) 3875 . 6188 (
=
s =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s
z P
z P
x P

The probability of getting a sample result as small as 6188.3875 hours, if the true
average lifespan of the components is 6200, is 0.3783. This sample result is not
unusually small. The sample evidence does not give us reason to doubt the producers
claim that the average lifespan of the electronic components is 6200 hours.
Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 123
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6

10. Start by analyzing the sample data set.
x = 36242.22
s = 5026.95
= $37,323 (claimed average income of business grads the year after graduation)
n = 45

Histogram of sample data is shown below.

0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
N
u
m
b
e
r

o
f

G
r
a
d
u
a
t
e
s
AnnualIncomeintheFirstYearAfterGraduation
RandomSampleof 45Graduates of
BusinessProgram


This histogram is significantly skewed to the left, and appears to be somewhat
bimodal, with a mode in each of the lower and upper halves of the range of the data.
In this case, we cannot assume the sampling distribution of x would be normal, and so
we cannot proceed.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 124
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
11. Start by analyzing the data set.
x = 1756.48
s = 599.773
= $2000 (claimed average daily sales)
n = 29





The histogram is skewed to the right. The sample size, at 29, is reasonably large. We
will proceed by assuming that with this sample size, the sampling distribution will be
approximately normal.

0144 . 0
) 19 . 2 (
29
773 . 599
2000 48 . 1756
) 48 . 1756 (
=
s =
|
|
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s
z P
z P
x P

The probability of getting average daily sales as low as $1,756.48, if the true average
daily sales are $2,000, is quite small, at 1.44%. The fact that we got this unusual
sample result gives us reason to doubt the former owner's claim that average daily
sales at the shop were $2,000. However, it may be that the sales have changed under
the new owner, for a variety of reasons. The data cannot allow us to conclude that the
former owner misrepresented the daily sales figures.

Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 125
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
12.
es = 82 (where "success" is defined as a student living in the
mediate area)

of 10,000. It
is appropriate to use the binomial distribution as the underlying model.


nq = 400(1 0.25) = 300 > 10
e proximated by a normal distribution, so we can
use the sampling distribution of .
. P(x 82, n = 400, p = 0.25) = 0.0200
. = 82/400 = 0.205
c.
p = 0.25
n=400
number of success
im

Sampling is done without replacement. The sample size is 400, but we are told the
college has over 10,000 students. 400 is less than 5% of the population
Check for normality:
np = 400(0.25) = 100 > 10


The binomial distribution could b ap
p

a

p b

0188 . 0
) 078 . 2 (
021651 . 0
25 . 0 205 . 0
) 205 . 0 (
=
s =
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s
z P
z P
p P

d.
calculated in part a.
The probabilities are close in value, but not exactly the same.
e.
as

provides evidence that the percentage of students from the local area has declined.


The probabilities calculated in parts a and c are different because the probability in
part c is the normal approximation of the binomial probability

There is evidence that the percentage of college students from the immediate
catchment area is lower than in the past. The probability of getting a sample result
low as 82 out of 400 is about 2%, presuming that 25% of students come from the
local catchment area. This sample result is unusually low, and the fact that we got it
Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 126
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
13. p = 0.20
n=300
number of successes = 77 (where "success" is defined as a student with a laptop)

Sampling is done without replacement. The sample size is 300, and we have no
information about the total number of students at the college. We can proceed, first
by noting that we are assuming there are at least 30020=6000 students at the
college. We will use the binomial distribution as the underlying model.

Check for normality:
np = 300(0.20) = 60 > 10
nq = 300(1 0.20) = 240 > 10

The binomial distribution could be approximated by a normal distribution, so we can
use the sampling distribution of . p


0071 . 0
9929 . 0 1
) 45 . 2 (
023094 . 0
20 . 0 2567 . 0
) 2567 . 0 (
=
=
> =
|
.
|

\
|

> =
>
z P
z P
p P


It would be almost impossible to find 77 laptops among 300 students, if the claimed
percentage ownership was still 20%. Since we found this result, we have evidence to
suggest that the percentage of students with laptop computers is now more than 20%.

14. Use Excel's Histogram tool to create a frequency distribution of 0's and 1's. The
results are as follows (the total was calculated with an Excel formula).

Bin Frequency
0 25
1 29
Total 54

n = 54
p = 29/54 = 0.537037
p=0.6

Sampling is done without replacement. The sample size is 54, and we have no
information about the total number of visitors to the winery's retail shop. We can
proceed, first by noting that we are assuming there are at least 5420=1080 visitors to
the winery. We will use the binomial distribution as the underlying model.
Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 127
Instructors Solutions Manual - Chapter 6
Copyright 2011 Pearson Canada Inc. 128


Check conditions:
np = 54(0.6) = 32.4 > 10
nq = 54(1-0.6) = 21.6 > 10

1725 . 0
) 9444 . 0 (
066667 . 0
60 . 0 537037 . 0
) 537037 . 0 (
=
s =
|
.
|

\
|

s =
s
z P
z P
p P
(using Excel; the answer is 0.1736 using the tables)

The probability of getting a sample proportion of female visitors as low as 53.7%, if the
actual proportion of females is actually 60%, is over 17%. Although the proportion of
females in the sample is lower than expected, it is not unusually low. The sample does
not give us evidence that the proportion of female customers is lower than the owner
believes.

Вам также может понравиться