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Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders Author(s): Margaret G.

Hermann Reviewed work(s): Source: International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 24, No. 1 (Mar., 1980), pp. 7-46 Published by: Blackwell Publishing on behalf of The International Studies Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2600126 . Accessed: 04/01/2012 19:17
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ExplainingForeignPolicy Behavior Usingthe Personal Characteristics of PoliticalLeaders


MARGARET G. HERMANN
MershonCenter Ohio State University

ofpolitical Do thepersonalcharacteristics leadersaffect their governments' foreign policy examines theimpactof6 personalcharacteristics The present behavior? of45 heads study ofgovernment on theforeign oftheir nations.Thesecharacteristics, policybehavior each interrelate to form two orientations of individual to foreign interest, and the inaffairs, on foreign of theseorientations fluence policybehavioris also explored.The results are forall 45 heads of government, as wellas forthoseleadersamongthe45 with reported in foreign affairs and withlittle or muchtraining highor low interest in foreign affairs.

Introduction Partiesto the continuing debate concerning whether thepersonal characteristics of politicalleaders can affect policyhave to empirical turned increasingly to seekresolution research to the controversy. Many of the resulting studies have focused on foreign policy (e.g., Crow and Noel, 1977; Driver, 1977; Falkowski,1978;Hermann,1974,1977; Winter and Stewart, 1977). fromthis researchare portraits Emerging of nationalpolitical

at theanAUTHOR'S NOTE: This articleis a revisedversionof a paper presented San Francisco,September of the AmericanPoliticalScience Association, nual meeting 2-5, 1975. The researchwas supportedby grantsfromthe National Science FoundaThanksare tion (GS-SOC76-83872) and the MershonCenterof Ohio State University. fortheir and David Winter due LawrenceFalkowski,GeraldHopple,CharlesHermann, on the earlierdraftof thisarticle. comments constructive
INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY, Vol. 24 No. 1, March 1980 7-46 ? 1980I.S.A.

INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY

theirgovernments towardaggressive or leaders who influence relations towardconciliatory withothernations.The data suggestthataggressive leaders are highin need forpower,low in of others,nationalistic, distrustful and conceptualcomplexity, likelyto believethattheyhave some controloverthe eventsin the data suggest thatconwhichtheyare involved.In contrast, leadersare highin need foraffiliation, highin concepciliatory of others,low in nationalism, and tual complexity, trusting likelyto exhibitlittlebeliefin theirown abilityto controlthe eventsin whichtheyare involved. articlehas as its purposea further The present examination relateto foreign of how these6 personalcharacteristics policy forsome45 headsofgovernment. The study is uniquein behavior have not examinedall 6 severalways. (1) To date, researchers in the same study.(2) A conceptualschemeis characteristics to foreign to linkthesecharacteristics policybehavior. presented is made to broadentheforeign policybehaviors (3) An attempt into thatare examinedbeyondspecifically (i.e., entry aggressive into internawar, arms increases)and conciliatory (i.e., entry behaviors. tionalagreements)

ConceptualSchemel in thisrewe are examining The six personalcharacteristics searchwere selectedbecause theyhave been foundto relateto foreignpolicy behaviorin several studies.The characteristics fourbroad typesof personalcharacteristics thatjourrepresent alikesuggest havean impact on thecontent and scholars nalists as Thesefourtypes wellas themeansof making politicaldecisions. are beliefs, decision ofpersonalcharacteristics style, and motives, interpersonal style. to a politicalleader's fundamental Beliefsrefer assumptions about the world. Are eventspredictable, is conflictbasic to humaninteraction, can one havesomecontrol overevents, is the
in Hermann hereappearsin a moredetailedform sketched scheme 1. The conceptual (1978).

Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

of national sovereignty and superiority maintenance the most of Answers to a nation? important objective questionssuch as thesesuggest some of a politicalleader'sbeliefs. Beliefs are proposed by many (e.g., Axelrod, 1976; DeRivera, 1968; Frank, 1968;Holsti, 1967;Jervis, 1976;Verba, 1969)to affect a political of his environment leader's interpretation and, in turn,the thatthe leaderemploys.Two of the personalcharacstrategies fallunderthecategory teristics examinedin thepresent of study beliefs-nationalismand beliefin one's own abilityto control is often usedbyjournalists events. Nationalism and policy makers as a reason fora specific politicalleader'sactions,particularly in discussions of leadersof ThirdWorldcountries. Ascertaining leader'sbelief inthecontrollability ofevents a political is thought in developinghis/ her operationalcodeto be fundamental the way a politicalleader definesthe basic rules that govern politicalbehavior(see George,1969; Holsti, 1977). It is hard to findjournalistic politicalanalysisthatdoes not consider at somepointthereasonswhya politicalleaderis doing she is doing-in effect, the politicalleader's motives. what he/ Need for power is probablythe most discussed motivewith reference to politicalleaders.But others, suchas needforaffiliationand needforapproval, also appearregularly insuchwritings. Motivesappearto affect oftheir politicalleaders'interpretations the environment and strategiesthey use (see Barber, 1965; Hermann,1977, 1978). In the presentresearchwe will look at need for power and need for affiliation. Winterand Stewart (1977) found these two needs particularly in their important examination of the motives of twentieth-century presidents. These two motivesappeared to influence the type of foreign behaviorthe presidents urgedon theirgovernments. By decisionstyleis meantpreferred methods of making decisions. How does thepoliticalleadergo about making decisions? Are therecertainways of approachinga policy-making task the leader?Possible components whichcharacterize of decision styleare opennessto new information, preference for certain in structuring levelsof risk,complexity and processing informaDecision styleis quite tion, and abilityto tolerateambiguity.

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INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY

to in operationalcode studiesas insimilarto whatis referred forpolitical strumental beliefs-preferred stylesand strategies behavior(see George,1969; Holsti, 1977;Johnson,1977;Thormuchof whatBarber(1972) discusses darson,1972). Moreover, character deals with decisionstyle. His in examining presidential decifourbasic character patterns carrywiththemdistinctive or complexity in structuring sion styles. Conceptualcomplexity examinedin the is thedecisionstyle and processing information differthat,in his research, present study.Driver(1977) reports influenced how aggresences in leaders'conceptualcomplexity wereintheir sivetheleaders'governments foreign policy activity. of The last type personalcharacteristic-interpersonal styledeals withthecharacteristic waysin whicha policymakerdeals Two interpersonal characteristics withother style policymakers. -paranoia (excessive suspiciousness)and Machiavellianism (unscrupulous,manipulativebehavior)-are often noted as particularly pronouncedin political leaders (see Christieand Geis, 1970; Guterman,1970; Hofstadter,1965; Rutherford, 1966). Tucker (1965) has proposedthatthesetwo traitsare rea "warfare personality," latedin a typeof politicalleaderhaving forexample,Stalin and Hitler.The politicalbehaviorof such a leader is combative in nature. Suspiciousnessor distrustof is theinterpersonal variableexaminedinthepresent others style research. are expectedto These fourtypesof personalcharacteristics boththestyle and content affect offoreign policy.Becausebeliefs and motivessuggestways of interpreting the environment, poto urgetheir to act in ways liticalleadersare likely governments withsuch images. Specifically, consistent politicalleaders' beliefsand motivesprovidethemwitha map forcharting their course. As George(1969) notes:
about situations withwhich (1) The politicalactor'sinformation he must deal is usuallyincomplete; (2) his knowledgeof endsis generally means relationships inadequate to predictreliably the consequencesof choosingone or anothercourse of action; forhimto formulate difficult a singlecriterion and (3) it is often course of action by means of whichto choose whichalternative is 'best' [1969: 197].

Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

11

Some kind of map is needed. The politicalleader's cognitive theconditions Georgedescribes; map provides waysto overcome the stepsto one's goal and, at times, it suggests the appropriate natureof the goal. to decisionstyle and interpersonal Withregard style, we make engage in an assumptionthat a political leader will generally behavior regardlessof arena. Thus, political similar stylistic methodsof makingpersonal decisionsand leaders' preferred politicalbehavior. willcarry overto their interacting withothers forexample,noted differences, Styleis probablyone ofthefirst to make whenheads ofgovernment changeas thenewleadertries in his role. One head of state may focus comfortable himself his own office, within whilehis predecesforeign policy-making to let the bureaucracy handleall but sor may have been willing One head of statemaybe given problemsof crisisproportions. in theforeign mayhave to rhetoric policyarena; hispredecessor tends to adjust to wanted action. Moreover,the bureaucracy to the nexthopingto changesin stylefromone chiefexecutive minimize differences betweenitself and thechiefexecutive. The resultmay be to accentuatethe stylistic of high predilections the level decision makers.In turn,the policybeginsto reflect of thesehighlevel policymakers. stylistic preferences of thetypesof personalcharacteristics Giventhisdescription that will affect it, what foreign policyand how theywillaffect kinds of foreign policywould we expectfrompoliticalleaders with the six characteristics under study here? In addition to behavior,what foreignpolicy beaggressiveand conciliatory consider? haviorswill such leadersurgethattheirgovernments If we examine the dynamicsof the traitsassociated withthe aggressiveleader, we find a need to manipulateand control to consider a rangeofalternatives, little suspiciousothers, ability a highinterest in maintaining national ness of others'motives, and sovereignty, and a distinct to initiate willingness identity action. Extrapolatingfromthese dynamicsto foreignpolicy are suggestive of a foreign policy behavior,the characteristics in style and content. Such leaderswillseek whichis independent to keep theirnations to maintaintheirnation's individuality,

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as much as possible apart fromthe othernationsin the intersinceextensive nationalsystem, contactwithothernationsmay on thesenations.Theywillurgetheir lead to dependence governofleadersofother ments to be suspiciousofthemotives nations. is necessary, When interaction theyexpectit to be on theirnations'terms. fortheaggressive thepersonaldynamics Contrast leaderwith those for the leader who has been foundto be generally conof theconciliatory The personalcharacteristics ciliatory. leader indicatea need to establishand maintain friendly relationships an abilityto considera wide rangeof alternatives, withothers, of others'motives,no overriding littlesuspiciousness concern of nationalidentity and sovereignty, withthe maintenance and in initiating little interest action.These dynamics suggest a more to be interparticipatory foreign policy.Such leadersare likely their nationsinteract withothernations, estedin having inlearning what othernationshave of value fortheirnationand find a widerangeofaltervaluable about their nation,and in seeking native solutionsto problemsjointlyplaguingtheirnation and othernations.Theywillprobably keep attunedto whatis going on in international relations,being sensitiveand responsive In effect, theseleaderswillattempt to facilito thisenvironment. in the international tate theirnations'participation system. Whatwe are suggesting by thisdiscussionis thatthepersonal to form a personalorientaunderstudy interrelate characteristics to one's environtionto behavioror a general wayofresponding is transformed ment.This personalorientation by the head of to foreignaffairs.By into a general orientation government orientation to foreign knowinga head of government's affairs, whenfacedwitha foreign one knowshis predispositions policyand the styleof makingtask-how he will definethe situation behaviorhe will be likelyto emphasize.Heads of government in thepresent are thought withthepersonalcharacteristics study towardeither an independent or participatory to be predisposed affairs on how thecharacterisorientation to foreign depending Traits that have characterized the aggressive tics interrelate. are expectedto interrelate politicalleader in previousresearch

Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

13

to foreign orientation affairs and to lead to forman independent to foreignpolicy behaviorswhich emphasize an independent hand,traits that and content. On theother foreign policyin style the in previous politicalleader have characterized conciliatory to form a participatory researchare expected to interrelate affairs and to lead to foreign policybehato foreign orientation in withothergovernments viorswhichemphasizeparticipation styleand content. has proposedelsewhere (Hermann,1976,1978, As the writer 1979; Hermannand Hermann,1979),the personalcharacterisof heads of government examinedin this tics and orientations to havemoreimpacton a government's foreign are likely research than under others.We will policy under some circumstances explore two such conditionsin this study-one that is hypoof leader personality on foreign thesizedto enhancethe effect to diminish sucheffects. policybehaviorand one thatis thought hereare interest inforeign affairs The twovariableswe willstudy Interestin foreign affairs. affairswill and trainingin foreign ofa political on governleader'scharacteristics enhancetheeffect in foreign ment policy, whereastraining affairswill diminish such an effect. force.An imin foreign affairs acts as a motivating Interest inforeign policywillbe increased consequenceofinterest portant inthemaking offoreign The headofgovernpolicy. participation mentwill wantto be consultedon decisionsand to be keptinaffairs. Moreover, formedabout what is happeningin foreign in foreign interest the reasons behind a head of government's he fearsan relations, policy-he places value on good external he sees it as a wayof gainingre-election-may enemytakeover, the course of action he will seek to implement. predetermine the head of government in foreign With littleinterest affairs, to other theeffect is likely to delegateauthority people,negating on the resultant of his personality policyexceptas his spokesis similarto his own. man's personality in foreign thehead ofgovernWithregard to training affairs, has no on whichto call. no little or mentwith expertise training to suggestpossiblealternatives He has no previousexperience

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or plans of action. As a result, his naturalpredispositions come into play. The head of government withtraining, on the other about whatwillsucceedand failinthe hand,has someknowledge arena. As a consequenceof his experience, international he has very and strategies likely fordealingwith developedcertain styles a foreign thatare particular policysituation to theissueand/or nationinvolved. Thereis lessdependence target on hisunderlying predispositions.

Measurement of Personal Characteristics PROCED URE A ND S UBJECTS

Contentanalysiswas used to assess thepersonalcharacteristics of the heads of government who werethe subjectsof this research.Contentanalysishas provenusefulin measuring the personalcharacteristics of politicalleaderslikeheads ofgovernment who are virtually inaccessiblefor personality testingor clinicalinterviewing (see Eckhardtand White,1967; Hermann, 1974, 1977; Shneidman,1963; Winterand Stewart,1977). The materialwhichwas content analyzedconsistedof responsesby heads of government to reporters' questions, generally in a press conference setting.The U.S. Foreign Broadcast Information Service(FBIS) Daily Report (a documentcontaining verbatim transcripts of material gleanedfromU.S. monitoring of foreign broadcasts) and the New York Times were the basic sources used in collecting the interview responses.2 Pressinterviews withheads ofgovernment wereused because theyappear to contain the most spontaneouspublic material available on such politicalleaders.Spontaneousmaterial is desirable because it minimizes the effects of "ghost writing" and plannedcommunication. Materialssuch as speechesand letters
2. Thesetwosourcesweresupplemented bymaterial from "MeetthePress"and "Face the Nation" television interview shows whensuch wereavailable. Materialon the U.S. presidents was takenfrom the Public Papers of thePresidents. The Public Papersofthe Presidents includesverbatim ofall pressconferences transcripts a president's heldduring tenure.

Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

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forthe head of government are oftenwritten by others and are generally designedto conveya specific imageto a certain audicontent ence. As a consequence,the researcher analyzing these is likeorwhattheimage materials willlearnwhattheghostwriter is whichthe politicalleader would like to reflect. In the press thehead of government is usuallytheauthor conference setting, of his responsesand oftenhas littletimein whichto plan his response.Several contentanalysisstudies(e.g., LeVine, 1966; thatthelinkbetween Osgood and Anderson,1957) suggest perand spontaneousmaterial is stronger sonal characteristics than and plannedmaterial. thatbetweenpersonalcharacteristics The FBIS Daily Reportand New York Timesweresearched who heldoffice formaterialon 80 heads of government during in the38 nationscomprising thedecade 1959-1968 theComparaofNations(CREON) Projectsample. tiveResearchon theEvents acrossa head ofgoverninterview At least 15verbatim responses ment'speriodin office werefoundfor45 (56%) of theheads of arethesubjects government. These45 headsofgovernment ofthe present studyand are listedin Table 1 by country. Table 1 also theyearsduring indicates foreach head ofgovernment the 1959heldoffice, thenumber 1968decade in whichhe/she ofverbatim interview responsesthat were contentanalyzed, the average numberof wordsin an interview thenumber of interresponse, views includedin the interview responses,and the numberof and interview different yearscoveredintheinterviews responses. To be included in thesample, theheadofgovernment had to have interview at morethanone pointintime responses during his/her in office. For mostof theheads of government tenure the listed, thetotalnumber interview ofverbaresponses analyzedrepresent tim responsesavailable for that individualin the FBIS Daily Reportand New York Times during his/her yearsin office. Only forthethree U. S. presidents to moveto a sampling wereweforced because of theamountofmaterial procedure availableforthem. interview was included in thecontent Everyfifth response analysis foreach of the U.S. presidents. The following processwas used in doingthecontent analysis. All theinterview to be content responses analyzedwereputinto

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The cardsforeach leaderwerethenrun machinereadableform. the Key Word in Context(KWIC) Concordanceprothrough of occurrence the frequency of each word gram,whichreports and reproduces each word in alphabeticalorderwiththe six to and after it (theword'scontext). The eightwordscomingbefore forthe personalcharacteristics weredesigned codingcategories foruse withthe Concordanceoutput.
CODING CA TEGORIES FOR THE PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS

Table 2 contains a conceptualtzation ofeach ofthesixpersonal characteristics examinedin thisstudy.In addition, Table 2 presentsa brief ofthecodingschemes description usedinthecontent forthecharacteristics analysis and thescoresthatwereemployed in relating thecharacteristics to foreign policy behavior. Detailed coding manuals for the characteristics are available fromthe author. Table 2 also reportstwo typesof reliability figuresand traitreliability. inter-coder reliability Inter-coder refers to agreement reliability among the coders on thecodingoftheinterview forthevariouspersonal responses inter-coder To determine characteristics. the interreliability, view responsesforthreeof the leaderswerescoredby all four coders involvedin the contentanalysis.3The figures listed in ofagreement Table 2 indicatetheaveragepercentage amongthe refers to the stability coders. Trait reliability of the personal across timeand issues. This reliability characteristic was calcutheinterview for latedbydividing each head responses ofgovernon each personal characteristic intoodd and evenresponses. ment werethen Scoresfortheseodd and evenresponses intercorrelated foreach characteristic. across heads of government These corforlength corrected relations, bytheSpearman-Brown formula, are thetraitreliabilities listedin Table 2. The higher thecorrelation betweenscores for odd and even interview responses, the more stable the characteristic appears to be across time and issues fortheseheads of government.
3. The author would like to express her appreciationto Petra Donofrio, Danny Donofrio,JoanneFarley,and Beverly Gatliff fortheiraid withthe content analysis.

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DETERMINING ORIENTATIONS TO FOREIGN A FFA IRS

earlier, we hypothesized In the conceptualschemepresented to form in Table 2 interrelate thatthe personalcharacteristics affairs that affect the contentand to foreign two orientations most policy behavior.To test this hypothesis styleof foreign which two compositemeasureswerecreated.The first, directly, ofbeing consisted leader, oftheindependent we callcharacteristic to control highin beliefin one's ownability highin nationalism, low inconceptual and complexity, highin needforpower, events, of others.The second, whichis characteristic high in distrust ofbeinglowinnationalism, leader,consisted oftheparticipatory highin need to controlevents, low in beliefin one's own ability and low in disfor affiliation, high in conceptualcomplexity, To determine thesetwo composites, the heads trustof others.4 scoreson each ofthesix personalcharacteristics ofgovernments' ranksfornationalcomposite, wereranked.For theindependent to control events, needforpower, ism,beliefin one's own ability in others and distrust weresummed.For conceptualcomplexity, the participatory composite,ranks for nationalism,belief in conone's own abilityto controlevents,need for affiliation, in otherswere summed.The and distrust ceptual complexity, ranksrangedfrom 1 forthe lowestscore to 45 forthe highest rationscorewhena highscorewas indicated by theorientation score to 45 forthe lowestscore ale, and from1 forthe highest rationale. when a low score was indicatedby the orientation comand the participatory independent Thus, scores for both positescould runfrom5 to 225.

six personalcharacteristics, we are examining 4. The readerwill note thatalthough in differ The orientations is composed of fivecharacteristics. each of the orientations butnotinthe orientation intheindependent Need forpoweris included forces. motivating orientation is includedin theparticipatory needforaffiliation orientation; participatory thatneed foraffiliaIt was unclearconceptually orientation. but not in theindependent to a or thatneedforpowerwas relevant orientation to an independent tionwas relevant werenot includedin each orientation. thus,both motives orientation; participatory

Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

23

INTEREST IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS

to theamountof concernor refers affairs in foreign Interest directstowardforeign whicha head of government attention policya "passion"?Or does the head Is foreign policy-making. in foreignpolicyonly become a participant of government only issues?Perhapsthehead ofgovernment makingon specific circumstances. to whenforced by affairs deals withforeign in this study was operationalized affairs in foreign Interest in whicha head policyevents offoreign thepercentage by noting was Higherinterest whilein office. participated of government variables the of One rate of participation. a higher indicatedby eachevent data seton which policyevents in theCREON foreign intheevent participated is coded notesifthehead ofgovernment neededfortheactionto take or ifhis/herapprovalwas probably place (see Hermannet al., 1973: 102). The numberof foreign foreach head of policyeventsfallinginto thesetwo categories thenumerator formed in office her tenure during government his/ Total numberof foreign for calculatingrate of participation. was the inoffice term a head ofgovernment's during policyevents For mostoftheanalysesin whichwe willexamine denominator. at themediandenoting thevariablewillbe dichotomized interest, affairs. inforeign interest and low high with of government heads
TRAINING IN FOREIGN AFFAIRS

is meanthavingheld some poin foreign affairs By training positionthatwould giveone knowledge liticalor governmental To determine and foreign policy-making. affairs about foreign in forthe heads of government the present amountof training sourcessuch as Statessample,a searchwas made of reference and biographies. man's Year-Bookas well as autobiographies positionswerenoted.From All past politicaland governmental thenumber recordon theheads ofgovernment, thisbiographical affairs (e.g., foreign of yearseach had held positionsinvolving or defense ambassador,in foreign or defenseminister, foreign to UNESCO or the Common Market) representative ministry, The numberof yearsthe head of government was determined.

24

INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY

office was also countedin themeasure had held his/her present on the assumption thatsuch a positionwas a good of training in foreign A training scorewas calculated affairs. training ground a of the years head of government what percentage by finding affairs and had been in politicsinvolvedpositionsin foreign In mostanalysesthemeasureoftraining foreign policy-making. was dichotomizedat the median to indicate much and little
training in foreignaffairs.

RELA TIONSHIPS AMONG PERSONAL CHARACTERISTICS, ORIENTATIONS, INTEREST, AND TRAINING

the means,standarddeviations, and interTable 3 presents infor the personal characteristics, orientations, correlations in Table 3 indicate The correlations and training. thatthe terest, are significantly relatedas would be inversely two orientations All fiveof the expectedfromthe natureof theirconstruction. that were used in determining the inpersonal characteristics orientation are significantly relatedto thiscomposite dependent inthedirections measure framework. suggested bytheconceptual orientation. NationSuch is not the case forthe participatory and distrust alism,beliefin one's own abilityto controlevents, more to this orientation than conceptual of otherscontribute The reasonwhyconceptual and need foraffiliation. complexity make a smallercontribution complexity and need foraffiliation inverse between thesetwo relationship maylie in thesignificant to theconceptualframework. contrary personalcharacteristics, Several other correlations among the personal characterisin are noteworthy. tics included the orientations Nationalism, of others are all threesignificantly need forpower,and distrust At least for this sample of heads of government, interrelated. thenationalist appearsto be highin needforpowerand distrust of others. in foreign and training to Table 3, interest affairs According forthissample.The signito one another show little relationship variable suggestthat the with the interest ficantcorrelations

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orientation was more head of government withan independent in foreign affairs than the head of government with interested orientation. Moreover,themoreconceptually the participatory in foreign affairs. complexthe leader was, thelowerhis interest in one's ownability withbelief For training, onlythecorrelation The more highlytrainedthe to controlevents is significant. beliefin the ability head of government was, the lowerhis/her to controlevents.Experiencemay lead to a realizationof the foreign policy over whichone range of variables whichaffect can have littlecontrol.

Relationships Between Personal Characteristics and Foreign Policy Behavior

are exHaving suggestedhow the personal characteristics pected to affectforeignpolicy behavior and having operain thisresearch, tionalizedthepersonalcharacteristics employed do, in fact,relet us examine how the personalcharacteristics foreign policybelate to foreign policy behavior.The specific inthisstudy orientation to change, haviorsincluded areprofessed of action, commitment, affect, independence/interdependence feedback.A detaileddiscussionof the conand environmental and operationalizations ofeach ofthese variables ceptualizations is found in Callahan et al. (forthcoming). The foreign policy behaviorsare taken fromthe CREON eventsdata set which includes 12,710foreign policyeventson 38 nationsacross the For a description ofthisdata set,see Hermann decade 1959-1968. we willfocuson each foreign et al. (1973). In whatfollows, policy behavior by itself,further explicatingconceptuallyhow the are expectedto affect it and showing personal characteristics it and the between the relationships personal characteristics thatwerefound.
PROFESSED ORIENTATION TO CHANGE

to changewe mean a government's orientation By professed theneedforchangein theinternational publicpostureregarding

Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

27

Do the policy-makers of a nationexpresslittle environment. or no need forchangein the international arena,or do theyargue thatshort-term areinorder? and/or long-term changes Professed to change is measuredby notingwhat percentage orientation are presentin the foreign of the time goal statements policy ofa nationduring a head ofgovernment's tenure in office. events Ifgoal statements hereto a desiredfuture Goal refers condition. the of a nation areconsidered are generally absent, policy-makers littleor no need forchange in the international as professing thestatusquo. Ifgoal statements environment, i.e., as affirming ofa nationareviewed thepolicy-makers are generally present, as professing a need forchangein the international environment. to change probablyaffected How is professedorientation and participatory orientations by the independent to foreign In describing affairs examinedin thepresent theindepenstudy? we noted the importance of maintaining the dent orientation, of maintaining statusquo, that is, the importance nationalinand thepowerbase thehead ofgovernment dividuality now has. is to anathema such since there Change is always the leaders, chance of losing what has already been gained in power and position.In some sense,heads of government withindependent orientations are presentor "now" orientedratherthan futureoriented.They are concernedwiththe realitiesof day-to-day statesor conditions. politicsas opposed to future inMoreover, leaders are secretive. Such leaderscannotbe heldto dependent whattheyhave not statedpublicly; a certainmatheymaintain because theirpositionsare not a matter neuverability of public with record. Thus,headsofgovernment orientations independent to urgetheir to proposechanare unlikely governments publicly in the international arena. ges On the otherhand, heads of government withparticipatory are likelypublicly to advocate changein theinterorientations One way for such heads of government nationalenvironment. in the international arena is to make publictheir to participate such goals. Through public goal statements, theycan solicit from and initiate relations withothernations.In effect, support

28

INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY

inwhich aremoving they signalthedirection and their they intentionsto othernationsthrough publicgoal statements. Table 4 showstheinterrelationships amongthepersonalcharand professed acteristics orientation to change.Correlations are presentedfor the individualcharacteristics as well as for the to allow fora comparison composites (or orientations) between the characteristics and together. The relationships individually and professedorientation betweenpersonal characteristics to change are listed for the sample of heads of government as a wholeand thenforthoseheads ofgovernment within thesample in foreign who werehighor low in interest affairs and who had in foreign muchor little affairs. training inTable 4 areinthepredicted The correlations direction forthe for all but heads of government orientation participatory with muchtraining. For theindependent thecorrelations orientation, are onlyin thepredicted direction forheads ofgovernment with low interest and heads of government withlittletraining. The correlations are significant for both orientations for heads of little with For theindependent government training. orientation, the correlation for heads of government withmuchtraining is fromthat predicted.In but in the reverse significant direction in Table 4 suggestsupport the results forthehypotheses effect, for heads of government withlittletraining in foreign affairs forheadsofgovernment and theoppositeofthehypotheses with in foreign muchtraining affairs. Training theheadsof mayafford orientation witha participatory a widervariety government of intent thanthe use of goal statements; ways of signaling it may teach the heads of government withan independent orientation ways of suggesting commit changethatdo not necessarily them the need for publiclyto a particular policy(e.g., by proposing changein othernationsthantheirown). Looking at the individualcharacteristics, we note support forthehypotheses fornationalism, needforpower, and needfor affiliation undervariousof theinterest and training conditions. For nationalismand need forpower,the correlations are significant direction forheads of government and in the predicted and forheadsofgovernment withlow interest with little training.

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INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY

On the contrary, for need for affiliation, the correlations are forheadsofgovernment and in thepredicted direction significant withhighinterest and forheads ofgovernment withmuchtrainrelated ing. Conceptualcomplexity was in theoppositedirection foreach groupofheadsofgovernment. from thatpredicted High was relatedto littleprofessed conceptualcomplexity need for change.
INDEPENDENCE/INTERDEPENDENCE OF ACTION

of action is concernedwith Independence/interdependence the amountof autonomythata nationmaintains in its foreign policy actions. At issue are whether foreign policy actions are takenalone or in concertwithothernations,and whether such or in actionsare initiated a nation to a prior by stimulus response directed at the nation.Actionstakenalone and initiated by the nation are consideredto denote independence of action,while actions taken in concertwithothernationsand in responseto a prior direct stimulusdenote interdependence of action. In operationalizing of independence/interdependenceaction, a 3point scale was developedwith1 representing independence of action or actionsthathad onlyone actor and werenot elicited behavior,2 representing actions that were balanced as to independenceand interdependence on one aspect, (independent interdependent on theother), and 3 representing interdependence of action or actions thatinvolvedmultiple actors and elicited behavior.In the present analysis,an averagescale score across eventsoccurring a head of government's during tenure was used to indicateindependence/interdependence of action. In some sense,thisforeign policybehaviorgetsat theessence of the conceptualdifference betweenthe independent and parorientations towardforeign ticipatory affairs. Heads of governmentwiththe independent orientation are likelyto wantto act alone and to initiate behavioron their ownterms. Theywillseek to maintainautonomy,that is, to controltheirown national behavior. Such leaders believethattheycan have some effect

Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

31

on events.Moreover,theydistrust the leadersof othernations. These two traits coupled witha desireto maintain their ownand theirnation'spositionand powerbase suggestan emphasison independence of action. Heads of government witha participaon the otherhand, are probablywilling toryorientation, to reor control linquishsome autonomy overtheir ownbehavior.An from individual (or nation)can benefit working with rather than in others, againstothers.Buildingon theirlow level of distrust heads of government witha participatory orientation perceive ifbydoingso they in consort harmin acting withothers little can achieve an objective.Moreover,such leaders are likelyto be fromthe environment, to stimulation sensitive pickingup on behaviorsdirected towardthem. therelationships thepersonalcharTable 5 presents between acteristics and theindependence/ ofactionscale. interdependence a highscoreinter(Note thata low scoreindicates independence, dependence.)Withthe exceptionof heads of government with highinterest in foreign affairs, the correlations are in the predicted directionfor both the independentand participatory is significant orientations. One of the correlations for the independentorientation witha second approachingsignificance occur for heads of government (p <.06). These relationships in foreign withlow interest affairs and forheads of government in foreign The relationship affairs. withmuch training may be forheadsofgovernment particularly strong with training because enables such leaders to learn how to initiateactivity training on their own and probably givesthemconfidence in their ability to act effectively on their own.The two other correlasignificant tionsin Table 5 forthisvariableare forneed forpower-across The all heads of government and for those withlow interest. of the leaders' need for power,the more independence greater exhibits. actiontheirgovernment fortheparticipatory The relationships orientation maybe low, because the emphasisfor such heads of government is less on elicitedbehavior than on actingwith othernations. In other with a participatory orientation words, heads of government in initiating behaviorbut prefer to include may be interested

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33

in In Table 5 we have reported othernationsin theiractivity. orientation betweenparticipatory the correlations parentheses iniand actions involving (and its componentcharacteristics) tiatedbehaviorthatweremade withothernations.The perceninoffice tenure a head ofgovernment's tageofsuchactionsduring we variable.Examiningtheserelationships, was the dependent and is significant orientation note thatone fortheparticipatory These correlationsoccur for the two approach significance. as a whole, for the heads of sample of heads of government fortheheads of government and interest, low with government personal of theindividual five all Moreover, training. withlittle composite have involved in the participatory characteristics actions that are signiwith initiative-multilateral correlations ficantor thatapproach significance.
COMMITMENT

is a behavior which limitsa government's A commitment resources, because itusesup physical to act either future capacity a statement or involves inthefuture, ofresources pledges involves fora specific purpose.In otherwords, to use resources of intent fordealing reducethe pool of available resources commitments thatlimitfuture expectations withotherproblemsor generate an I -pointscale was commitment, behavior.To operationalize of desire (scale developed that builds fromverbal statements resources (scale point of physical use to irreversible of point 1) occurring for events score commitment of I1). The average was the specific tenurein office duringa head of government's analysis. measureused in the present reduce the indefuturebehavior,commitments By limiting policymakers. of a government's pendenceand maneuverability of their nation'sbein charge no longercompletely They are foreign are seen as inappropriate havior.As such,commitments withan independent policy behaviorby heads of government and putting Reducingcontrolover one's resources orientation. if it involves on one's abilityto act, particularly constraints

34

INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY

trusting leaders in other nations-this is anathema to indein increasing Theyare interested pendentheads of government. theirnations' separateness,not their power and maintaining nation'sseparateness. their On their limiting powerand reducing a participatory oriwith theother hand,theheadsofgovernment their nations'resources, are willing to commit expecting entation in to their thatare beneficial nations from others to gainresources to distrust the leaders of return. They have no predisposition othernations,figuring cooperationmay increasetheirgain in witha particithe long run. Moreover,heads of government are less concernedabout maintaining their patoryorientation to becomesomewhat detheyare willing nations'separateness; ifsuchdependencies on othernations, are builton suppendent portiverelationships. therelationships between thepersonalcharTable 6 presents The resultsare in the predicted and commitment. acteristics forboththeindependent and participatory direction orientations forboththewholesampleofheads ofgovernand are significant ment and forheadsofgovernment withlittle training. Moreover, orientation is significantly the independent relatedto commitmentforheads of government withlow interest. One of the individualpersonal characteristics, distrustof to commitment is significantly related forthesamethree others, as the independent orientation. groupsof heads of government themoredistrusting these headsofgovernment As expected, were commitments theirnationsmade. Need for of others, thefewer of the relationship withcomaffiliation changes the direction is mitment dependingon whichgroupof heads of government for affiliation is related the preNeed positively analyzed. interest is low dicteddirection-whenthe head of government's is limited, related whenthehead of and whentraining negatively interest is highand whenthereis muchtraining. government's thehead ofgovernment and training whose Interest mayprovide less extreme for affiliation is with than strategies comhigh need withothernations. formaintaining mitment positiverelations

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36

INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY

AFFECT

to hostilfriendliness from ranging denotesthefeelings Affect thepolitoward express of one nation itywhichpolicy-makers of anothernation.A 7-pointscale cies, actions,or government with one extreme(-3) was developed to operationalizeaffect extreme and theother of hostility a strong expression indicating A score of 0 a strongexpressionof friendship. (+3) indicating from This scale resulted of affect. expression a neutral indicated meawhich set data severalvariablesin theCREON combining of an eventto therecipients or harmfulness surethe helpfulness scaletheaffect from of theevent.Two variablesare derivable of theexand thedirection of the expressedaffect the intensity was measured analysis,intensity In the present pressedaffect. forthe without score regard absolute (i.e., an average by finding events of the across all recipients signof a scale value) foraffect tenurein office. that occurredduringa head of government's the average was measuredby determining Directionof affect intoaccountthesignofa scale value) foraffect score(i.e., taking across recipients forthe eventsthatoccurredduringa head of tenurein office. government's to scores to relate areexpected ofaffect and intensity Direction in thefolloworientations and participatory on theindependent withan independent ing manner.Because heads of government the in emphasizing are interested affairs to foreign orientation because and other nations and their nation between differences the leaders of other nations,theyare distrust they generally likelyto express negativeaffecttoward other nations, being Byusingsuchtechofsuchaffect. in theexpression intense fairly orientation withan independent niques, heads of government and the fact that they maintain accentuatetheirseparateness ownterms; own behavior.Theymoveon their controlovertheir witha participaownbosses. Heads ofgovernment are their they oftheir haveas a basic premise on thecontrary, toryorientation, relationswithothers. a desireto maintainfriendly world-view othersnor are theyoverlyconMoreover,theydo not distrust theirnationand othernabetween differences the cernedwith

Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

37

are likelyto emphasizethe tions. Such heads of government positivein theirrelationswithothernationsand to not "rock affect. of their in the expression the boat" by beingtoo intense to positivereinforcement others They perceivethatconsistent, environin the international freely enables themto participate and opinionsopen. keepschannels profile" A "low,positive ment. thepersonalcharbetween therelationships Table 7 presents ofaffect. The results as wellas intensity and direction acteristics For all forbothorientations. forthehypotheses support suggest are in theprethe correlations groupsof heads of government, for correlations ofthetwenty sixteen Moreover, dicteddirection. With or approach significance. are significant the orientations all but beliefin one's regardto the individualcharacteristics, in thepredicted correlations have events to control own ability withthese or approachsignificance thatare significant direction or near variables.The largestnumberof significant two affect of correlationsoccur for nationalismand distrust significant others.
FEEDBACK FROM THE ENVIRONMENT

policybehavior How do othernationsrespondto theforeign of a specificnation,i.e., what is the natureof theirfeedback? Some of acceptingor rejecting? Is it favorableor unfavorable, a set data indicate positive in the CREON the variablescoded or negativeresponseto another'sactions (e.g., acceptance or an agreement, rejectionof a request,reachingor terminating By of pleasure or displeasurewithan interaction). statements we have a notingwhose behavioris beingacceptedor rejected, thepercentage In thepresent feedback. analysis, wayofassessing of feedbackthatwas positiveacrosstheyearsa head of governwas used to indicatefeedback.Giventhatthis mentheld office offeedback, is based on onlytwotypes measure feedback specific morepositivethannegative feedcorrelation suggests a positive thanpositive morenegative indicates correlation back; a negative feedback.

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Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

39

forfeedbackfollowfromtheprevioushypoOur hypotheses theses on affect.Heads of government with an independent orientation to foreign affairs are proneto actionsthatare negative in tone and fairly intense.Such behavioris likelyto elicit mirror image behaviorfromothernationsif theybotherto reheads ofgovernment spond at all. Because moreindependent do not develop relationswithothernationsand seek to maintain statusin theinternational an independent arena,it maybe easy to rejecttheirbehavior.There are fewerstrings attachedand to such a rejection probablyfewer repercussions thanwould be the case with a more involvednation. Turningthis rationale around,we expectmorepositivefeedbackforheads of government witha participatory orientation. Such headsofgovernment tend to be positivetowardothernations,eliciting positivebehavior in return.Moreover,heads of government witha parorientation involvetheirnationsin theinterticipatory actively nationalsystem so thata rejection oftheir nation'sbehaviormay have repercussions not desiredbytheresponding nation.If any feedbackis to be given,positivefeedbackis probablysafest. Table 8 showsthe relationships thatwerefoundbetween the For all thegroupsofheads personalcharacteristics and feedback. of government in foreign exceptthosewithhighinterest affairs, the correlations were in the predicteddirectionfor the indeorientations. Of thoseeightrelations pendentand participatory in the predicteddirection,one was significant and four apcorrelationoccurred proached significance.The significant in foreign withlow interest forheads of government affairs., in theindividual characteristics does Onlyneed foraffiliation not have a correlation withfeedbackthat is significant or apFor nationalism, needforpower,and disproachessignificance. of are in signforheads of trust others, thecorrelations reversed withlow and highinterest and forheads ofgoverngovernment mentwithlittle The correlations and muchtraining. are all negaforheads of government withlow interest tive,as hypothesized, and for heads of government withlittletraining, but theyare forheads ofgovernment withhighinterest positive and forheads of government withmuch training. Interest and training may

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Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

41

with policystatureof heads of government increasethe foreign and/or make themmore adept in foreign thesecharacteristics than negative feedbackis so thatpositiverather policy-making directed towardtheirnations.

Conclusions The researchreportedin this articlehas examinedhow six of heads of government interact to form personalcharacteristics affairs. Based on a set of premises to foreign two orientations with thesetwoorientations about thewaysheads ofgovernment thetwooriento act,we have related willurgetheir governments Table behaviors. 9 summarizes the to six tations foreign policy the orientations thatwerefoundbetween and the relationships as wellas therelationships between the foreign policyvariables, and the foreign policyvariindividualpersonalcharacteristics of thistable suggests severalconclusions ables. An examination fromthe research. the independent orienAmong the personalcharacteristics, tationhad the largestnumberof significant (p<.05) or nearly in the predicted direction with significant (p<.10) correlations withthe the foreign policy variables-53% of the correlations had a p<.10. In second place was the independent orientation havinga orientation with47% of its correlations participatory in their own right to foreign affairs p <.10. The two orientations in explaining dimensions would appear to represent important withthesetwo foreign policy behavior. Heads of government orientationsinfluencedthe foreignpolicy behavior of their in specific ways. governments has as many None of the individualpersonalcharacteristics thathavea p <.10 withtheforeign correlations policybehaviors as thetwoorientations. Oftheindividin thepredicted direction nationalismand need for power have the ual characteristics, witha p <.10-40%. Need largestnumberof such correlations of othersfollowa close second with and distrust foraffiliation havinga p<.10. Beliefin one's own 33% of theircorrelations

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abilityto controleventsappears to have had the least impact on theseforeign policybehaviorswithonly 10% of its correlationshavinga p <.10 in the predicted direction. to thecolumnsin Table 9, thatis,to thetypes ofheads Turning of government who werestudied,we note thatour expectation in foreign withregardto training affairs was supported.There thepersonalcharacteristics between weremorerelationships and foreignpolicy behaviorsfor heads of government with little that had a p <.10 than for heads of government training with muchtraining. Our hypothesis not confirmed for was, however, in foreign interest affairs-in the low interest condition, rather moreofthecorrelations thanthehighinterest condition, between and foreign thepersonalcharacteristics policyvariables achieved a p<.10. theimpactof the need to reconceptualize The results suggest interest in foreign affairs on the relationship betweenpersonal and foreign characteristics policybehavior.Much like the lack in foreign of training low interest affairs, appears to provide heads of government to tap but theirpredispositions withlittle whenthey must makea foreign decision.With policy high interest in foreign the heads of government have probablyread affairs, about, discussed,and formulated positionson foreign policy issues beforetakingoffice, have kept and, aftertakingoffice, on problemsin the foreign themselves informed policyarena. They have developed some basis on whichto make a decision otherthan theirpredispositions. Interest, like training, appears to increasethe range of activities whichheads of government can considerin dealingwithforeign affairs. Instead of relying on strategies and styles dictatedby theirpersonalorientations, have a choice of severalways interested heads of government of the probableoutcomeswhen of actingand some knowledge and styles are used. Interested thesealternative heads strategies have a broaderrepertoire of possiblebehaviors. of government and training, Before leaving this discussion of interest we shouldnotethatwe learnedas muchabout theparticular foreign policy variablesexamined in this researchby focusingon the as a wholeas from sampleofheads ofgovernment lookingat the

44

INTERNATIONAL STUDIES QUARTERLY

in foreign and training effects of interest affairs. The numbers thesame forthewhole of correlations withp <.10 are virtually withlittleinterest or sample as forthose heads of government In otherwords,the relationships withlittletraining. between and foreign thesepersonalcharacteristics tend policybehaviors variablesas training to show up without takingsuch mediating in foreignaffairs into account. However,a closer or interest indicatesthattheyare stronger of the correlations examination accountfora larger -the personalcharacteristics of percentage behaviors-forheadsofgovernthevarianceintheforeign policy or withlittle mentwithlittleinterest in foreign affairs training thanforthewholesampleofheadsofgovernment. Whereas none ofthecorrelations exceeds.45 (or accounts for20% or moreofthe variance)forthe whole sample of heads of government, nearly of the correlations forheads of government one-fifth withlittle interest are equal to or exceed .45, and one-tenth of the correlationsforheads of government withlittle are equal training theconditions to or exceed .45. Specifying underwhichpersonal characteristics can affectforeignpolicy behavior appears to enhancethe explanatory powerof the personalcharacteristics. We have examinedin thisstudythe directeffects of leaders' on theirgovernments' personal characteristics foreignpolicy and several behavior conditions thatappearto enhance thisdirect effect. variables can be posited (see Many otherconditioning Hermann, 1976, 1978; Hermannand Hermann,1979). Some involve otherpossibleenhancing conditions beinga predominant leader(i.e., havinga disproporas opposed to nonpredominant tionately largeamountofpowerinthegovernment), beingpartof a cohesiveas opposed to a fragmented regime, facingan amand having to deal biguousas opposed to a structured situation, An important witha small as opposed to a largebureaucracy. objectiveof the CREON Project,of whichthisstudyis a part, linksamongthesetypesofvariables ofintegrative is thebuilding in explaininggovernments' foreign policybehavior.We are inmodelsshowinghow nationalattributes, in developing terested and processes,situational regimefactors,decision structures interrelate in affecting variables, and external relationships

Hermann/ PERSONALITY OF LEADERS

45

foreign policyactivities (see Salmore et al., 1978). The present thatthepersonalcharacteristics and orientations studysuggests affairs of politicalleadersare worth in this to foreign including It is, however, effort. integrative onlya first stepin theprocess do certainthingsin the of trying to explain whygovernments foreign policyarena.

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