Chapter 4 Probability

Probability can be defined as the chance of an event occurring. It can be used to quantify what
the odds are that a specific event will occur. Some examples of how probability is used
everyday would be weather forecasting, 75% chance of raining or for setting insurance rates.
4.1 Experiment, Outcomes and Sample Space
- A is a chance process that leads to well-defined results called probability experiment
outcomes.
- An is the result of a single trial of a probability experiment. outcome
- A is the set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. sample space

Example 4.1:
Experiment Outcomes Sample Space
Toss a coin once
Roll a die once
Toss a coin twice
Take a test
Select a student
Head, Tail
1,2,3,4,5,6,
HH, HT, TH, TT
Pass, Fail
Male, Female
S = {Head, Tail}
S = {1,2,3,4,5,6}
S = {HH, HT, TH, TT}
S = {Pass, Fail}
S = {Male, Female}

Example 4.2: Find the sample space for the gender of the children if a family has three
children. Use B for boy and G for girl.
Solution:


Example 4.3: Draw the Venn and tree diagram for the gender of three children in a family, as
in Example 4.2.
Solution:







- An event consists of a set of outcomes of a probability experiment.
- An event with one outcome is called a simple event.
- An event consists two or more outcomes is called a compound event.
- If it contains no outcome (or empty), it is known as a null space, denoted by .

Example 4.4: In a group of people, some are in favour of genetic engineering and others are
against it. Two persons are selected at random from this group and asked whether they are in
favour of or against genetic engineering. How many distinct outcomes are possible? Draw a
Venn diagram and a tree diagram for this experiment. List all the outcomes included in each
of the following events and mention whether they are simple or compound events.
(a) Both persons are in favour of genetic engineering.
(b) At most one person is against genetic engineering.
(c) Exactly one person is in favour of genetic engineering.

Solution:


















4.2 Calculating Probability
- Probability is a numerical measure of the likelihood that a specific event will occur
(denoted by P)

- Two Properties of probability
1. 1 ) ( 0 s P s
i
E
For an impossible event M: P(M) = 0
For a sure event C: P(C) = 1
2.

= + P + P = P 1 ... ) ( ) ( ) (
2 1
E E E
i


4.3 Three Conceptual Approaches to Probability

1. Classical probability uses sample spaces to determine the numerical probability that
an event will happen and assumes that all outcomes in the sample space are equally
likely to occur.
( )
( )
( ) space sample in the outcomes of number Total
in outcomes of Number E
S n
E n
E = = P

Example 4.5: Find the probability of obtaining an even number in one roll of a die.

Solution:








2. Empirical probability relies on actual experience to determine the likelihood of
outcomes.
The following probabilities:
- The probability that the next baby born at a hospital is a girl;
- The probability that the tossing of an unbalanced coin will result in a head;
- The probability that an 80-year-old person will live for at least one more year;
Cannot be computed using the classical probability rule because the various outcomes
for the corresponding experiments are not equally likely.
To calculate such probabilities, we may perform the experiment again and again to
generate data to obtain the relative frequency.
If an experiment is repeated n times and an event A is observed f times, then,
according to the relative frequency concept of probability:
n
f
A P = ) (

Example 4.6: Ten of the 500 randomly selected cars manufactured at a certain auto
factory are found to be lemons. Assuming that the lemons are manufactured randomly,
what is the probability that the next car manufactured at this auto factory is lemon?

Solution:
Let n denote the total number of cars in the sample and f the number of red cars in n.

= n , = f


= P ) ( lemon a is car next



Law of large numbers
If an experiment is repeated again and again, the probability of an event obtained from
the relative frequency approaches the actual or theoretical probability.


3. Subjective probability uses a probability value based on an educated guess or estimate,
employing opinions and inexact information.

Examples
1. The probability that Carol, who is taking statistics, will earn an A in this course.
2. The probability that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be higher at the end of
the next trading day.
3. The probability that Joe will lose the lawsuit he has filed against his landlord.



4.4 Marginal and conditional probabilities

Marginal probability is the probability of a single event without consideration of any other
event. It is also called simple probability.

Conditional probability is the probability that an event will occur given that another event
has already occurred. If A and B are two events, then the conditional probability of A given B
is written as
P( A | B )
It read as the probability of A given that B has already occurred.




Example 4.7: Suppose all 100 employees of a company were asked whether they are in favor
of or against paying high salaries to CEOs of companies. Table below give a two-way
classification of responses of these 100 employees.

In Favour Against Total
Male 15 45 60
Female 4 36 40
Total 19 81 100

Suppose one employee is selected at random, find the probability that the employee selected
is
i. a male.
ii. in favour of paying high salaries to CEOs.
iii. a male who is in favour of paying high salaries to CEOs.
iv. against of paying high salaries to CEOs given that this employee is a female.
v. a male given that this employee is in favour of paying high salaries to CEOs.

Solution:
















4.5 Mutually Exclusive Events

Events that cannot occur together are said to be mutually exclusive events.

Example 4.8: Consider the following events for one roll of a die:
A = an even number is observed={2,4,6}
B = an odd number is observed = { 1,3,5 }
C = a number less than 5 is observed ={1,2,3,4}

Are events A and B mutually exclusive? Are events A and C mutually exclusive?

Solution:
0 ) ( = B A P (mutually exclusive)
3
1
6
2
) ( = = C A P 0 = ( not mutually exclusive)
4.6 Independent Events

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the probability
of the occurrence of the other. In other words, A and B are independent events if either
P(A | B) = P(A) or P(B | A) = P(B)

If the occurrence of one event affects the probability of the occurrence of the other event, then
the two events are said to be dependent events.

The two events are dependent if either P(A | B) P(A) or P(B | A) P(B).


Example 4.9:
A box contains a total of 100 CDs that were manufactured on two machines.

Defective
(D)
Good
(G)
Total
Machine I (A) 9 51 60
Machine II (B) 6 34 40
Total 15 85 100

D = the event that a randomly selected CD is defective
A = the event that a randomly selected CD was manufactured on Machine I

Are events D and A independent?

Solution:
15 . 0
100
15
) ( = = D P 15 . 0
60
9
) | ( = = A D P
Or
6 . 0
100
60
) ( = = A P 6 . 0
15
9
) | ( = = D A P

Two events A and D are independent.


Note:
1. Mutually exclusive events are always dependent.
2. Independent events are never mutually exclusive.


Complimentary events
The complement of event A, denoted by A is the event that includes all the outcomes for an
experiment that are not in A. Therefore, 1 ) ( ) ( = + A P A P .




4.7 Intersection of events and the multiplicative rule

Intersection of events
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The intersection of A and B represents
the collection of all outcomes that are common to both A and B and is denoted by
A and B (or AB )

Joint Probability
The probability of the intersection of two events is called their joint probability and written as
P(AB).

Multiplicative Rule
The probability of the intersection of two events A and B is P(AB) = P(A)P(B|A)


Example 4.10: A box contains 20 DVDs, 4 of which are defective. If 2 DVDs are selected at
random (without replacement) from this box, what is the probability that both are defective?

Solution:
Let G
1
= event that the first DVD selected is good
D
1
= event that the first DVD selected is defective
G
2
= event that the second DVD selected is good
D
2
= event that the second DVD selected is defective



























Conditional Probability
If A and B are two events, then
) (
) (
) | (
A P
B A P
A B P

= and
) (
) (
) | (
B P
B A P
B A P

=
given that P(A) 0 and P(B) 0.

Multiplication rule for independent events
The probability of the intersection of two independent events A and B is
P( A B ) = P(A) P(B)

Example 4.11: The probability that a patient is allergic to penicillin is 0.20. Suppose this
drug is administered to three patients.
(a) Find the probability that all three of them are allergic to it.
(b) Find the probability that at least one of them is not allergic to it.

Solution:































Joint probability of mutually exclusive events
The joint probability of two mutually exclusive events is always zero. If A and B are two
mutually exclusive events, then
P( A B ) = 0
4.8 Union of events and the addition rule

Union of events
Let A and B be two events defined in a sample space. The union of events A and B is the
collection of all outcomes that belong either to A or to B or to both A and B and is denoted by
A or B ( or ( AB) )

Addition rule
The probability of the union of two events A and B is
) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( B A P B P A P B A P + =

Example 4.12: A university president proposed that all students must take a course in ethics
as a requirement for graduation. Three hundred faculty members and students from this
university were asked about their opinion on this issue. Table gives a two-way classification
of these responses faculty members and students.
Find the probability that one person selected at random from these 300 persons is a faculty
member or is in favour of this proposal?

Favour Oppose Neutral Total
Faculty 45 15 10 70
Student 90 110 30 230
Total 135 125 40 300

Solution:
























Example 4.13: In a group of 2500 persons, 1400 are female, 600 are vegetarian, and 400 are
female and vegetarian. What is the probability that a randomly selected person from this
group is a male or vegetarian?

Solution:













Example 4.14: The probability that a person is in a favour of genetic engineering is 0.55 and
that a person is against it is 0.45. Two persons are randomly selected, and it is observed
whether they favour or oppose genetic engineering.
(a) Draw a tree diagram for this experiment.
(b) Find the probability that at least one of the two persons favours genetic engineering.

Solution:

























4.9 Counting Rules

- The is also called the . fundamental counting rule multiplication of choices
- In a sequence of n events in which the first one has

possibilities and the second

event has

and the third has

, and so forth, the total number of possibilities of the

sequence will be

Example 4.15: How many sample points are in the sample space when a pair of dice is
thrown once?

Solution:
Each step has two outcomes: a head and a tail
Total outcomes for three tosses of a coin = 8 2 2 2 =

The eight outcomes for this experiment are TTH THT THH HTT HTH HHT HHH , , , , , , and
TTT .


Example 4.16: A paint manufacturer wishes to manufacture several different paints. The
categories include
Colour: red, blue, white, black, green, brown, yellow
Type: latex, oil
Texture: flat, semi-gloss, high gloss
Use: outdoor, indoor
How many different kinds of paint can be made if you can select one colour, one type, one
texture, and one use?

Solution:



















- Factorial notation
( )( )


- A permutation is an arrangement of n objects in a specific order.
r n
P

()
( )( ) ( )



Example 4.17: Suppose a business owner has a choice of 5 locations in which to establish her
business. She decides to rank each location according to certain criteria, such as price of the
store and parking facilities. How many different ways can she rank the 5 locations?

Solution:
Using factorials, 5! = 120
Using permutations,
5
P
5
= 120





Example 4.18: Suppose the business owner in Example 4.17 wishes to rank only the top 3 of
the 5 locations. How many different ways can she rank them?

Solution:
5
P
3
= 60.






Example 4.19: A television news director wishes to use 3 news stories on an evening show.
One story will be the lead story, one will be the second story, and the last will be a closing
story. If the director has a total of 8 stories to choose from, how many possible ways can the
program be set up?

Solution:






- Combination is a grouping of objects. Order does not matter.


Example 4.20: A newspaper editor has received 8 books to review. He decides that he can
use 3 reviews in his newspaper. How many different ways can these 3 reviews be selected?

Solution:




Example 4.20: In a club there are 7 women and 5 men. A committee of 3 women and 2 men
is to be chosen. How many different possibilities are there?

Solution:








The counting rules can be combined with the probability rules in this chapter to solve many
types of probability problems.

By using the fundamental counting rule, the permutation rules, and the combination rule, you
can compute the probability of outcomes of many experiments, such as getting a full house
when 5 cards are dealt or selecting a committee of 3 women and 2 men from a club consisting
of 10 women and 10 men.

Example 4.21: A store has 6 TV Graphic magazines and 8 Newstime magazines on the
counter. If two customers purchased a magazine, find the probability that one of each
magazine was purchased.

Solution:











( )
!
! !
n r
n
C
n r r
=

Example 4.22: A combination lock consists of the 26 letters of the alphabet. If a 3-letter
combination is needed, find the probability that the combination will consist of the letters
ABC in that order. The same letter can be used more than once. (Note: A combination lock is
really a permutation lock.)

Solution: