Created by: Elizabeth Fiedler

Conditional Probability
Overview of Lesson
Working in pairs and with class discussion, students will gain an understanding of conditional probability.

Common Core State Standards Grade Level Content

S-CP.3 Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B. S-CP.4 Construct and interpret two-way frequency tables of data when two categories are associated with each object being classified. Use the two-way table as a sample space to decide if events are independent and to approximate conditional probabilities.

Common Core State Standards for Mathematical Practice

1. Make sense of problems and persevere in solving them.

Prerequisites
Students will need to be familiar with finding marginal and joint probability and creating and interpreting single-variable frequency tables. These topics will be covered in the one or two lessons prior to this one as building blocks to meeting the standards covered in this lesson. The students will have considered how to determine the independence of two events and assess if their joint probability is the product of their marginal probabilities.

Learning Targets
After an exploration activity and a class discussion, students will be able to understand the conditional probability formula and use it to accurately find conditional probabilities.

Time Required
This lesson will take place in one 50-minute lesson.

Materials Required
M&M/Skittle Activity worksheet M&Ms and Skittles

Instructional Lesson Plan I. Essential Questions

What does conditional probability mean? What does it mean if two events are independent?

Fiedler

II.

Plan
1. The students will be paired into predetermined groups for this activity. Each student will be given a snack-size package of M&Ms and a snack-size package of Skittles. Together, each pair of students will work through the activity worksheet. 2. In the first part of the activity, pairs will fill out individual event frequency tables and then combine their data with the other pairs in the class to create a two-way frequency table. The students will review marginal and joint probabilities and practice gathering data from the two-way frequency table. 3. After the first section, the students have a checkpoint. The teacher needs to check in with each pair of students to make sure that they are doing these things correctly before they move on. Because they are reviewing what was learned in a previous lesson about marginal and joint probability and reading a frequency table, students should only need a quick check from the teacher before going on to the next part of the activity. However, if many students are still struggling with these skills, it may be necessary to do a short class discussion to review these concepts. 4. Students will find the conditional probability of picking an M&M given they know it is a red candy. First, students will find the probability using the probability formula they already know. They will have to find the joint probability of a red M&M from the frequency table. For the total possible outcomes, students will need to remember that they already know the candy is red. So, the possible outcomes is limited to only the red candies. 5. Here is another checkpoint for the students. This class discussion will be on how they went about finding the conditional probability of picking an M&M, if they know it is red. Because this is new content for the students, this checkpoint is to make sure that they found the right probability and understand the process. They will use their past formula for finding the probability of an event in order to find a conditional probability. By building on their prior knowledge, students will be gaining an understanding of the formal process for finding conditional probability. They will be creating the formula without even knowing it. The tricky part to this probability will be making sure they use the right number for the total possible outcomes. They will have to use the number of red candies as their total instead of the total number of candies, because they know they chose a red one. 6. The next section has the students create a definition and formula for conditional probability. First, the students explain what conditional probability is in their own words. Then, they are asked to find a formula that they can use to find the conditional probability. They use this formula to find the same conditional probability as before, for the red M&M. They compare it to their previous answer, and they should get the same thing.

Fiedler There will be a quick checkpoint after this section to check in with students understanding of conditional probability and to compare classmates formulas to their own. 7. To finish off the worksheet, the students find four more conditional probabilities using the formula that they just found and give an explanation in their own words of what happens when you find the conditional probability of two independent events. The worksheets should be collected at the end of the class and the last four problems will be checked by the teacher to make sure that students are calculating conditional probability correctly.

Assessment
Students will be assessed on their work throughout class at each of the checkpoints. Then, they will be assessed on their use of the conditional probability formula based on part 3 of the worksheet and extra practice at the end of the worksheet.

Possible Extensions
For an extension, the students will look at independent events and conditional probability. They will answer the following questions: Lets say event A is choosing a red M&M and event B is choosing a blue Skittle. If you replace each candy you chose before choosing another one, how are the two events related? Does P(A) affect P(B)? What does it mean if two events are independent? How can you find the conditional probability of two independent events? For example, if you replace the candies between choices, how can you find the probability of choosing a blue Skittle given that you previously chose a red M&M? How does the conditional probability, P(B | A), relate to the marginal probabilities of the two events, P(A) and P(B)?