2014 Lok Sabha Projections: How many seats will Aam Aaadmi Party win?

The AAP, had shocked the entire political class by emerging as the 2nd largest party & forming the govt. in Delhi with outside support of Congress. The kind of response they have got has shocked the political pundits and given sleepless nights to Congress, BJP & other regional parties. AAPs announcement that they would contest 350 seats in Lok Sabha has made the otherwise 2 way contest a triangular one. In a survey amongst metros, Kejriwal has pipped Rahul and is now the 2nd choice for Prime Minister of the surveyed class behind Modi. How many seats will AAP win in Lok Sabha? Will it damage Congress more than BJP or vice-a-versa? Will it be able to replicate its success of Delhi in other cities? Will it be able to make an impact in rural areas? These are some of the questions which are on everybodys minds and a lot has been said / written / debated in the recent times. AAP is more of a urban phenomenon where educated voters fed up of currentpolitical class have decided to give somebody from amongst themselves (aam aadmi) a chance to rule and govern. According to a Business Standard & Economic Times article there are 200 urban seats in India out of 543 seats. This was contested by Mint which estimated the total no. of predominantly urban constituencies in Lok Sabha as 53. Out of these 53 seats, UPA currently has 25. Most of these seats are up for grabs in 2014. AAP could get 12 (50%) of the above seats mainly in Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Pune, Nashik, Hyderabad, Chandigarh and Faridabad (mainly cosmopolitan). The party has significant presence and influence in National Capital Region (NCR) and it could win additional 3 seats there from Gurgaon, Bhiwani (Kejriwals birth place) and Gautam Buddha Nagar (Noida). This would take the total tally to 15. Which is very impressive for a party making its debut. The party sadly doesnt have a rural base currently because its new and caste plays an important factor in rural India. Hence AAP making an impact out of urban areas into rural India is difficult to imagine at this stage. Our estimates of AAPs impact on the Loksabha will be as under:

AAP No. of Currently Held City State Seats By Win Could

Greater Mumbai Delhi Greater Bangalore

Maharashtra Delhi Karnataka Andhra

6 5 4

UPA (6) UPA (5) NDA (3) JSDS (1) UPA (2) Others

2 4 1

Greater Hyderabad Pradesh

3 (1) DMK (2) AIADMK

Chennai

Tamil Nadu

3 (1)

Ahmedabad Kolkata Surat Pune Lucknow Jaipur Kanpur

Gujarat West Bengal Gujarat Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh

2 2 2 1 1 1 1

NDA (2) TMC (2) NDA UPA NDA UPA UPA

0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Nagpur Chandigarh

Maharashtra Chandigarh Andhra

1 1

UPA UPA

0 1

Vishakhapatnam Pradesh Madhya Indore Pradesh Thane Ludhiana Pinpri-Chinchwad Vadodara Maharashtra Punjab Maharashtra Gujarat Madhya Bhopal Pradesh Patna Nashik Agra Coimbatore Bihar Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Tamil Nadu Jammu & Srinagar Kasmir

UPA

NDA

1 1 1 1

UPA UPA NDA NDA

0 0 0 0

NDA

1 1 1 1

NDA UPA NDA CPM

0 1 0 0

NC

Rajkot Faridabad Madurai Kalyan-Dombivali Amritsar Meerut

Gujarat Haryana Tamil Nadu Maharashtra Punjab Uttar Pradesh Andhra

1 1 1 1 1 1

UPA UPA DMK NDA NDA NDA

0 1 0 0 0 0

Vijaywada Pradesh Aurangabad Total Gurgaon Gautam Uttar Pradesh BuddhaNagar BhiwaniHaryana Mahendragarh Total Haryana Maharashtra

UPA

1 53 1

NDA

0 12

UPA

BSP

UPA

15

Whom will AAP impact? Will this reduce BJPs tally? We shall update this space weekly till elections are over