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Principles of Probability and Statistics Assessment Master of Mathematics for Teaching

Delivery by January 9 EXERCISE 1 Suppose that you have 8 cards. 5 are green and 3 are yellow. The 5 green cards are numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5. The 3 yellow cards are numbered 1, 2, and 3. The cards are well shuffled. You randomly draw one card. G = card drawn is green E = card drawn is even-numbered a. List the sample space. b. P(G) = c. P(G|E) = d. P(G AND E) = e. P(G OR E) = f. Are G and E mutually exclusive? Justify your answer numerically. EXERCISE 2 Refer to the previous problem. Suppose that this time you randomly draw two cards, one at a time, and without replacement. G1= first card is green G2= second card is green a. Draw a tree diagram of the situation. b. P(G1 AND G2) = c. P(at least one green) = d. P(G2|G1) = e. Are G2 and G1 independent events? Explain why or why not. EXERCISE 3 A special deck of cards has 10 cards. Four are green, three are blue, and three are red. When a card is picked, the color of it is recorded. An experiment consists of first picking a card and then tossing a coin. a. List the sample space. b. Let A be the event that a blue card is picked first, followed by landing a head on the coin toss. Find P(A). c. Let B be the event that a red or green is picked, followed by landing a head on the coin toss. Are the events A and B mutually exclusive? Explain your answer in 1 - 3 complete sentences, including numerical justification. d. Let C be the event that a red or blue is picked, followed by landing a head on the coin toss. Are the events A and C mutually exclusive? Explain your answer in 1 - 3 complete sentences, including numerical justification. EXERCISE 4 An experiment consists of tossing a nickel, a dime and a quarter. Of interest is the side the coin lands on. a. List the sample space. b. Let A be the event that there are at least two tails. Find P(A). c. Let B be the event that the first and second tosses land on heads. Are the events A and B mutually exclusive? Explain your answer in 1 - 3 complete sentences, including justification. EXERCISE 5 E and F mutually exclusive events. P(E)=0.4; P(F)=0.5. Find P(EF).

EXERCISE 6 U and V are mutually exclusive events. P(U)=0.26; P(V)=0.37. Find: a. P(U AND V) = b. P(U | V) = c. P(U OR V) = EXERCISE 7 Y and Z are independent events. a. Rewrite the basic Addition Rule P(Y OR Z)=P(Y)+P(Z)P(Y AND Z) using the information that Y and Z are independent events. b. Use the rewritten rule to find P(Z) if P(Y OR Z)=0.71 and P(Y)=0.42 . EXERCISE 8 The following are real data from Santa Clara County, CA. As of a certain time, there had been a total of 3059 documented cases of AIDS in the county. They were grouped into the following categories (Source: Santa Clara County Public H.D.):
Homosexual/BisexualIV Drug User* Heterosexual ContactOther Totals Female 0 70 136 49 ____ Male 2146 463 60 135 ____ Totals ____ ____ ____ ____ ____ TABLE 1: * includes homosexual/bisexual IV drug users

Suppose one of the persons with AIDS in Santa Clara County is randomly selected. Compute the following: a. P(person is female) = b. P(person has a risk factor Heterosexual Contact) = c. P(person is female OR has a risk factor of IV Drug User) = d. P(person is female AND has a risk factor of Homosexual/Bisexual) = e. P(person is male AND has a risk factor of IV Drug User) = f. P(female GIVEN person got the disease from heterosexual contact) = g. Construct a Venn Diagram. Make one group females and the other group heterosexual contact. EXERCISE 9 The following table identifies a group of children by one of four hair colors, and by type of hair.
Hair TypeBrownBlondBlack RedTotals Wavy 20 15 3 43 Straight 80 15 12 Totals 20 215 TABLE 2

a. Complete the table above. b. What is the probability that a randomly selected child will have wavy hair? c. What is the probability that a randomly selected child will have either brown or blond hair? d. What is the probability that a randomly selected child will have wavy brown hair? e. What is the probability that a randomly selected child will have red hair, given that he has straight hair? f. If B is the event of a child having brown hair, find the probability of the complement of B. g. In words, what does the complement of B represent?

EXERCISE 10 Approximately 281,000,000 people over age 5 live in the United States. Of these people, 55,000,000 speak a language other than English at home. Of those who speak another language at home, 62.3% speak Spanish. (Source: http://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/language/data/acs/ACS-12.pdf) Let: E = speak English at home; E' = speak another language at home; S = speak Spanish; Finish each probability statement by matching the correct answer.
Probability StatementsAnswers a. P(E') = i. 0.8043 b. P(E) = ii. 0.623 c. P(S and E') = iii. 0.1957 d. P(S|E') = iv. 0.1219 TABLE 3

EXERCISE 11 In 1994, the U.S. government held a lottery to issue 55,000 Green Cards (permits for non-citizens to work legally in the U.S.). Renate Deutsch, from Germany, was one of approximately 6.5 million people who entered this lottery. Let G = won Green Card. a. What was Renates chance of winning a Green Card? Write your answer as a probability statement. b. In the summer of 1994, Renate received a letter stating she was one of 110,000 finalists chosen. Once the finalists were chosen, assuming that each finalist had an equal chance to win, what was Renates chance of winning a Green Card? Let F = was a finalist. Write your answer as a conditional probability statement. c. Are G and F independent or dependent events? Justify your answer numerically and also explain why. d. Are G and F mutually exclusive events? Justify your answer numerically and also explain why. NOTE: P.S. Amazingly, on 2/1/95, Renate learned that she would receive her Green Card -- true story! EXERCISE 12 The chart below gives the number of suicides estimated in the U.S. for a recent year by age, race (black and white), and sex. We are interested in possible relationships between age, race, and sex. We will let suicide victims be our population. (Source: The National Center for Health Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services)
Race and Sex1 - 1415 - 24 25 - 64 over 64TOTALS white, male 210 3360 13,610 22,050 white, female 80 580 3380 4930 black, male 10 460 1060 1670 black, female 0 40 270 330 all others TOTALS 310 4650 18,780 29,760 TABLE 4

NOTE: Do not include "all others" for parts (f), (g), and (i). a. Fill in the column for the suicides for individuals over age 64. b. Fill in the row for all other races. c. Find the probability that a randomly selected individual was a white male. d. Find the probability that a randomly selected individual was a black female. e. Find the probability that a randomly selected individual was black f. Find the probability that a randomly selected individual was male.

g. Out of the individuals over age 64, find the probability that a randomly selected individual was a black or white male. h. Comparing Race and Sex to Age, which two groups are mutually exclusive? How do you know? i. Are being male and committing suicide over age 64 independent events? How do you know?

EXERCISE 13 The percent of licensed U.S. drivers (from a recent year) that are female is 48.60. Of the females, 5.03% are age 19 and under; 81.36% are age 20 - 64; 13.61% are age 65 or over. Of the licensed U.S. male drivers, 5.04% are age 19 and under; 81.43% are age 20 - 64; 13.53% are age 65 or over. (Source: Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Dept. of Transportation) Suppose that 10,000 U.S. licensed drivers are randomly selected. a. How many would you expect to be male? b. Using the table or tree diagram from the previous exercise, construct a contingency table of gender versus age group. c. Using the contingency table, find the probability that out of the age 20 - 64 group, a randomly selected driver is female. Multiple choice questions. The next two questions refer to the following probability tree diagram which shows tossing an unfair coin FOLLOWED BY drawing one bead from a cup containing 3 red (R), 4 yellow (Y) and 5 blue (B) beads. For the coin, P(H)=23 and P(T)=13 whereH = "heads" and T = "tails.

Figure 1 EXERCISE 14 Find P(tossing a Head on the coin AND a Red bead) A. 23 B. 515 C. 636 D. 536 EXERCISE 15 Find P(Blue bead). A. 1536 B. 1036 C. 1012 D. 636

The next three questions refer to the following table of data obtained from www.baseball-almanac.com showing hit information for 4 well known baseball players. Suppose that one hit from the table is randomly selected.
NAME SingleDoubleTripleHome RunTOTAL HITS Babe Ruth 1517 506 136 714 2873 Jackie Robinson 1054 273 54 137 1518 Ty Cobb 3603 174 295 114 4189 Hank Aaron 2294 624 98 755 3771 TOTAL 8471 1577 583 1720 12351 TABLE 5

EXERCISE 16 Find P(hit was made by Babe Ruth). A. 15182873 B. 287312351 C. 58312351 D. 418912351 EXERCISE 17 Find P(hit was made by Ty Cobb | The hit was a Home Run) A. 418912351 B. 1141720 C. 17204189 D. 11412351 EXERCISE 18 Are the hit being made by Hank Aaron and the hit being a double independent events? A. Yes, because P(hit by Hank Aaron | hit is a double) = P(hit by Hank Aaron) B. No, because P(hit by Hank Aaron | hit is a double) P(hit is a double) C. No, because P(hit is by Hank Aaron | hit is a double) P(hit by Hank Aaron) D. Yes, because P(hit is by Hank Aaron | hit is a double) = P(hit is a double)

EXERCISE 19 According to a study done by De Anza students, the height for Asian adult males is normally distributed with an average of 66 inches and a standard deviation of 2.5 inches. Suppose one Asian adult male is randomly chosen. Let X=height of the individual. a. X~_______(_______,_______) b. Find the probability that the person is between 65 and 69 inches. Include a sketch of the graph and write a probability statement. c. Would you expect to meet many Asian adult males over 72 inches? Explain why or why not, and justify your answer numerically. d. The middle 40% of heights fall between what two values? Sketch the graph and write the probability statement.

EXERCISE 20 The percent of fat calories that a person in America consumes each day is normally distributed with a mean of about 36 and a standard deviation of 10. Suppose that one individual is randomly chosen. Let X=percent of fat calories. a. X~_______(_______,_______) b. Find the probability that the percent of fat calories a person consumes is more than 40. Graph the situation. Shade in the area to be determined. c. Find the maximum number for the lower quarter of percent of fat calories. Sketch the graph and write the probability statement. EXERCISE 21 In China, 4-year-olds average 3 hours a day unsupervised. Most of the unsupervised children live in rural areas, considered safe. Suppose that the standard deviation is 1.5 hours and the amount of time spent alone is normally distributed. We randomly survey one Chinese 4-year-old living in a rural area. We are interested in the amount of time the child spends alone per day. (Source: San Jose Mercury News) a. In words, define the random variable X. X= b. X~ c. Find the probability that the child spends less than 1 hour per day unsupervised. Sketch the graph and write the probability statement. d. What percent of the children spend over 10 hours per day unsupervised? e. 70% of the children spend at least how long per day unsupervised? EXERCISE 22 Suppose that the duration of a particular type of criminal trial is known to be normally distributed with a mean of 21 days and a standard deviation of 7 days. a. In words, define the random variable X. X= b. X~ c. If one of the trials is randomly chosen, find the probability that it lasted at least 24 days. Sketch the graph and write the probability statement. d. 60% of all of these types of trials are completed within how many days? EXERCISE 23 Thuy Dau, Ngoc Bui, Sam Su, and Lan Voung conducted a survey as to how long customers at Lucky claimed to wait in the checkout line until their turn. Let X=time in line. Below are the ordered real data (in minutes):
0.504.255 6 7.25 1.754.255.25 6 7.25 2 4.255.25 6.25 7.25 2.254.255.5 6.25 7.75 2.254.5 5.5 6.5 8 2.5 4.755.5 6.5 8.25 2.754.755.75 6.5 9.5 3.254.755.75 6.75 9.5 3.755 6 6.75 9.75 3.755 6 6.75 10.75 TABLE 6

a. Calculate the sample mean and the sample standard deviation. b. Construct a histogram. Start the xaxis at 0.375 and make bar widths of 2 minutes. c. Draw a smooth curve through the midpoints of the tops of the bars. d. In words, describe the shape of your histogram and smooth curve. e. Let the sample mean approximate and the sample standard deviation approximate . The distribution of X can then be approximated by X~

f. Use the distribution in (e) to calculate the probability that a person will wait fewer than 6.1 minutes. g. Determine the cumulative relative frequency for waiting less than 6.1 minutes. h. Why arent the answers to (f) and (g) exactly the same? i. Why are the answers to (f) and (g) as close as they are? j. If only 10 customers were surveyed instead of 50, do you think the answers to (f) and (g) would have been closer together or farther apart? Explain your conclusion.

EXERCISE 24 Below is a sample of the maximum capacity (maximum number of spectators) of sports stadiums. The table does not include horse racing or motor racing stadiums. (Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stadiums_by_capacity)
40,00040,00045,05045,50046,24948,134 49,13350,07150,09650,46650,83251,100 51,50051,90052,00052,13252,20052,530 52,69253,86454,00055,00055,00055,000 55,00055,00055,00055,08257,00058,008 59,68060,00060,00060,49260,58062,380 62,87264,03565,00065,05065,64766,000 66,16167,42868,34968,97669,37270,107 70,58571,59472,00072,92273,37974,500 75,02576,21278,00080,00080,00082,300 TABLE 7

a. Calculate the sample mean and the sample standard deviation for the maximum capacity of sports stadiums (the data). b. Construct a histogram of the data. c. Draw a smooth curve through the midpoints of the tops of the bars of the histogram. d. In words, describe the shape of your histogram and smooth curve. e. Let the sample mean approximate and the sample standard deviation approximate . The distribution of X can then be approximated by X~ f. Use the distribution in (e) to calculate the probability that the maximum capacity of sports stadiums is less than 67,000 spectators. g. Determine the cumulative relative frequency that the maximum capacity of sports stadiums is less than 67,000 spectators. Hint: Order the data and count the sports stadiums that have a maximum capacity less than 67,000. Divide by the total number of sports stadiums in the sample. h. Why arent the answers to (f) and (g) exactly the same?

Multiple Choice Questions The questions below refer to the following: The patient recovery time from a particular surgical procedure is normally distributed with a mean of 5.3 days and a standard deviation of 2.1 days. EXERCISE 25 What is the median recovery time? A. 2.7 B. 5.3 C. 7.4 D. 2.1 EXERCISE 26 What is the z-score for a patient who takes 10 days to recover? A. 1.5 B. 0.2

C. 2.2 D. 7.3

EXERCISE 27 What is the probability of spending more than 2 days in recovery? A. 0.0580 B. 0.8447 C. 0.0553 D. 0.9420 EXERCISE 28 The 90th percentile for recovery times is? A. 8.89 B. 7.07 C. 7.99 D. 4.32 The questions below refer to the following: The length of time to find a parking space at 9 A.M. follows a normal distribution with a mean of 5 minutes and a standard deviation of 2 minutes. EXERCISE 29 Based upon the above information and numerically justified, would you be surprised if it took less than 1 minute to find a parking space? A. Yes B. No C. Unable to determine EXERCISE 30 Find the probability that it takes at least 8 minutes to find a parking space. A. 0.0001 B. 0.9270 C. 0.1862 D. 0.0668 EXERCISE 31 Seventy percent of the time, it takes more than how many minutes to find a parking space? A. 1.24 B. 2.41 C. 3.95 D. 6.05 EXERCISE 32 If the mean is significantly greater than the standard deviation, which of the following statements is true? I . The data cannot follow the uniform distribution. II . The data cannot follow the exponential distribution.. III . The data cannot follow the normal distribution. A. I only B. II only C. III only D. I, II, and III