Electronics and Computers

The latest monthly production data for electronics and computers in the developed world were generally strong, broadly in line with our expectations. After falling for two consecutive months in the US, hightech production posted its strongest monthly gain in eight months in August. This development had been factored into our forecast, as improvements in US competitiveness should benefit high value sectors such as electronics. Following a sharp decline in June, Japanese production grew by more than 8% on the month in July. Although the series is volatile from month-to-month, high-tech production in Japan is currently ahead of its year-earlier level for the first time since early-2012, suggesting the weak exchange rate has started to translate into competitiveness gains. In Europe, high-tech production was robust in July in the UK and France. In contrast, it contracted again in Italy. But the biggest disappointment was in Germany, where output fell by 6%. Germany had shown signs of growth in early2013, but output there is now 15% lower than a year ago.

For further information contact Abby Samp asamp@oxfordeconomics.com

Electronics and computers: Output growth

% year 50 Eastern Europe 40 30 20 BRICs 10 0 -10 World Forecast

Developed -20 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source: Oxford Economics

Electronics and computers: Consumer demand

% year 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 UK US* *3 month moving average

Electronics and computers: Output

2005=100 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Germany, France, Italy, UK Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13 Japan US

Source: Oxford Economics

Source: Haver Analytics

Computers & office equipment: Output

2005=100 250

Computers & office equipment: New orders

% year 60 Italy 40 Germany 3 month moving average

200 US

Germany, France, Italy, UK

20

150

100

Japan

-20 US

50 Aug-08

-40 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Source: US Census Bureau / StaBu / Istat

Source: Oxford Economics

Monthly Industry Briefing: September 2013

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Electronics and Computers

Electronic engineering: New orders

% year 60 Italy 40 US 20 0 -20 -40 -60 Aug-08 3 month moving average

Asia: Electronics output

2005 = 100 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Korea: Electronic Engineering Taiwan: Electronic & semiconductors production equipment

Germany

50
Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13

Singapore: Electronic products & components Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Aug-13

Source: US Census Bureau / StaBu / Haver Analytics

0 Aug-08

Source: Haver Analytics

Electronic components: Output

2005=100 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 Aug-08 US

Semiconductors: Sales and prices

% year 80 3 month moving average 60 40 World Sales

Germany, France, Italy, UK

20 0

Japan

-20 -40 Aug-08

World prices

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Source: Oxford Economics

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Radio, TV & telecommunication equipment: Output 2005=100

160 150 140 Japan 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 Germany, France, Italy, UK 60 50 40 30 Aug-08 Aug-09 Aug-10
Source: Oxford Economics

Precision instruments: Output

2005=100 140 130 120 110 US Germany, France, Italy, UK

US

100 90 80 70 60 Aug-08 Japan

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Source: Oxford Economics

Monthly Industry Briefing: September 2013

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Electronics and Computers

Computers & office equipment: Prices

% year 10 UK 5 0 US -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Aug-08 Germany

Electronic engineering: Prices

% year 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 Aug-08 Japan, wholesale prices US Germany, Italy & UK

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Source: Oxford Economics / Haver Analytics

Electronics equipment: Stock market indices

2005 =100 125

IT hardware: Stock market indices

2005=100 160 140 World

100 Japan 75 World

120 100 80 60 Japan

50

25

EU15

EU15 40 20 Aug-08

0 Aug-08

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Aug-09

Aug-10

Aug-11

Aug-12

Aug-13

Source: Haver Analytics

Source: Haver Analytics

Industry Output - Electronics and Computers

Value Added Index (2005=100) and year-on-year % changes, seasonally adjusted

USA Index
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2013 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 161.4 161.4 162.0 162.6 164.0 163.8 163.3 165.2 4.7 4.6 5.0 4.2 5.1 4.0 3.5 6.0 155.9 156.9 158.0 161.4 162.3

Japan Index
87.4 85.9 89.4 89.0 86.6 86.5 83.4 85.2 88.3 90.1 84.7 91.7 -

Germany Index
158.9 149.3 156.4 152.2 155.4 154.5 150.3 160.6 149.5 158.5 151.8 141.4 -

France Index
115.3 112.9 114.0 113.0 111.8 113.7 112.1 111.5 111.1 108.9 108.6 109.8 -

Italy Index
82.4 82.1 80.6 81.6 80.4 83.6 82.3 80.8 84.2 82.3 82.0 80.1 -

UK Index
88.7 90.8 93.0 90.2 91.1 90.8 85.8 89.6 88.9 85.7 88.6 92.0 -

% change
5.1 5.5 5.9 7.5 6.7

% change
-12.8 -13.3 -5.5 -0.3 -11.2 -13.6 -17.0 -14.3 -6.4 -2.9 -10.3 0.9 -

% change
-8.1 -11.3 -4.0 -7.2 -3.5 -4.0 -9.5 -1.5 -8.1 -3.2 -7.5 -15.2 -

% change
3.0 3.4 0.4 -2.0 -0.3 -6.9 -6.8 -7.5 -7.9 -8.3 -5.0 -5.9 -

% change
-7.0 -3.1 -6.6 -4.9 -7.6 1.4 0.9 -0.5 7.2 2.5 1.1 -0.8 -

% change
0.3 6.2 8.9 5.1 6.0 3.9 -0.7 2.5 -1.3 -3.5 3.5 3.2 -

Monthly Industry Briefing: September 2013

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