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AGENDA Background and motivation for modeling Canadian risks Seismic risk in Canada Recent updates to the AIR Earthquake Model for C Canada d Newly added sub-perils of the AIR Earthquake Model
THE INCREASES IN LOSS REFLECT CHANGES IN CANADIAN DEMOGRAPHICS AND INSURANCE PRACTICES
Increases in losses may be impacted by: P&C insurance premiums Population growth Changes in the building stock
Million ns
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 1980 1984
Total Population
Premiums (CAD mn)
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
AIR HIGH RESOLUTION INDUSTRY EXPOSURE DATABASE REFLECTS THE INCREASE IN THE VALUE AT RISK
The1 km2 grid cell contains exposure value by occupancy construction type occupancy, type, and height
AIR was selected by the Insurance Bureau of Canada t conduct to d t the th most t comprehensive study of seismic risk ever undertaken for Canada. The study is now considered to be state of the science in understanding Canada Canadas s earthquake risk.
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CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE OVERVIEW Formed by Juan de Fuca Plate converging and sliding beneath North American Plate
Three types of earthquakes: Megathrust Deep interface Shallow crustal Can affect wide geographic area and give rise to tsunamis Long period seismic waves
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AIR NEW MODEL INCORPORATES THE LATEST DATA, SCIENCE AND MODELING TECHNIQUES
Pre-release access to historic earthquake catalog from Geological Survey of Canada (GSC, 2012) Latest active fault data in and surrounding Canada Extensive geodetic data covering western Canada and USA Detailed geological and geotechnical data for characterizing site conditions Latest Ground Motion Prediction Equations and basin effects
GSC 2012 Historical Catalog Model Based on 2003 GSC M d lB Model Based d on 2012 GSC
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GPS DATA AND KINEMATIC MODEL RESULTS ARE INTEGRATED WITH HISTORICAL DATA
Controlled by Earthquake Catalog Controlled by Catalog, Fault Slip Rates, and GPS Data
Cumulative Rate
Magnitude
Collaborated with Dr. Robert McAffrey to estimate crustal strain rates GPS data is used to estimate Cascadia fault locking and crustal deformation rates in the west
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stochastic events
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SHAKE DAMAGE MODULE IS UPDATED BASED ON THE STUDY OF BUILDING VULNERABILITY IN CANADA Collaborated with local researchers to y the vulnerability y of Canadian study buildings and infrastructures Used observational data, engineering analysis and lessons from recent events Incorporated seismic code evolution in temp spatial variation of vulnerability temp-spatial Added industrial facility module (IFM) and infrastructures
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Decreasing Vulnerability
Pre Code Low Code Moderate High Code Code Special Code
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1941
1953
1970
1st fully probabilistic seismic hazard map p
1985
Hazard map based on 475 RP
1988
M5.9 Saguenay Earthquake
1st National 1st Seismic Building Zonation Code Map of Canada (NBCC)
1990 1995
Same map, updated design force, force ultimate strength design
2005
Major update, UHS. 2 475 RP
2010
Minor update
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Earthquake Sub-Perils
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TSUNAMI SIMULATION MODEL CAPTURES THE PROGRESSION OF WATER INTO THE LAND
Model provides height, velocity and arrival time of the inundation
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Fraser River delta and Richmond lowlands are highly susceptible to li liquefaction f ti d due t to loose granular sediments and high ate table tab e water
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UPDATED AIR MODEL FOR CANADA ESTIMATES DAMAGE CAUSED BY LANDSLIDES IN THE ELEVATED AREAS
Surficial and bedrock geology maps are used to identify material properties
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FINER RESOLUTION, BETTER IGNITION MECHANISM AND ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD MODULE
AIRs updated fire following earthquake model runs on a 1 km2 grid Enhanced building to building fire spread modeling utilizes the latest cellular automata modeling techniques
Source: Google
Updated fire suppression modeling explicitly accounts for the Vancouver Dedicated Fire Protection System auxiliary water supply
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VARIOUS COMPONENTS OF THE CANADA EARTHQUAKE MODEL HAVE BEEN PEER REVIEWED Hazard component has been extensively peer reviewed by p Mazzotti from Montpellier p University y in Prof. Stephane France and a former geophysicist in GSC Vulnerability component has been peer reviewed by Prof. Marie Jose Nollet from cole de technologie suprieure in Marie-Jose Montreal Fire following component has been peer reviewed by Dr. Keisuke Himoto from Kyoto University in Japan and Dr. Geoff Thomas from Victoria University in New Zealand
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Magnitude 9, depth 11 km 75km from Vancouver Island 300km from downtown Vancouver
Direct loss of 62 billion CAD Total economic loss of 75 billion CAD (direct + indirect) Total Insured loss of 20 billion CAD
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0.9 71 7.1
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Direct loss of 49 billion CAD Total economic loss of 61 billion CAD (direct + indirect) Total Insured loss of 12 billion CAD
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41.6
1.5
0.6
97.8
96.5
Liquefaction/Landslide
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Events in the Cascadia Subduction Zone clustered on the southern tip of Vancouver Island can cause 100to 500-year damage levels in British Columbia
Eastern Canada 100-500 Year Event Sample
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SUMMARY
Catastrophes by nature are unpredictable and are not dictated by the historical record. The risk in Canada is real and likely higher than the historical record might indicate. indicate Earthquake science is continuing to evolve and lessons learned from global events impacts our understanding of the risk in Canada Canada. A comprehensive view of earthquake risk includes an understanding of damage from the associated sub-perils sub perils as well as damage from ground shaking. The areas of large population where significant loss can occur are not just confined to Vancouver or Quebec City. The updated p AIR Earthquake q Model for Canada will be released in July 2014 and features a unified catalog for the US and Canada
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