ConcordiaUniversityDept.

Engineering
ENGR371MidTermExamSec.CCSummer2008

Name:

ID:

AllowedMaterials:Originalcopyoftheofficialcoursetextbook(3
rd
or4
th
edition)
Nootherwrittenmaterialallowed.
Departmentapprovedcalculator
Nootherelectronicdevicespermitted(includingcellphonesandotherwireless
devices)
Instructions:i)Attemptallquestions.
ii)Showallofyourworkintheworkbook.
iii)Putaboxaroundyourfinalanswer.
iv)PutyournameandIDonboththeanswerbookandthemidtermquestionsheet.
v)Youwillhave80minutestocompletetheexam.Attheendyoumuststopwritingand
returnyourexamtotheinvigilator.

Question 1) An aircraft engine has a dual ignition system made of two separate, but identical ignition
systems. The ignition systems are connected in parallel so that in case one ignition system, fails, the
other can take over. Each ignition system has a reliability of x (e.g. the likelihood of the ignition
system working is x). The engine requires that the starter motor (reliability 0.95) and the fuel pump
(reliability 0.8) and the exhaust system (reliability of 0.9) and the dual ignition system all work. The
systemisrequiredtohaveanoverallenginereliabilityof0.62244.(Showallofyourworkandputabox
aroundyourfinalanswer):
a) Constructawelllabelledblockdiagramofthesystem(2Marks).
b) Compute thevalueofthe reliabilityoftheignitionsystemrequiredtosatisfytherequirements
givenabove(4Marks).
Question2)Usingtheenginedesignfromquestion1andassumingthatanaircraftneedsatleasthalfof
theenginestooperate(showallofyourworkandputaboxaroundyourfinalanswer):Hint,usesallof
the decimal places to get an accurate answer. (Show all of your work and put a box around your final
answer):
A) Computetheprobabilitythatatwoengineaircraftwilloperate?(2Marks)
B) Computetheprobabilitythatafourengineaircraftwilloperate?(2Marks)
C) Determinewhichaircraftisthemorereliable(willbemorelikelytooperate).Validateyour
answer.(2Marks)
Question3)Anassessmentof4000computerharddrivesindicatedthat3.5%ofthe100GBdrives
malfunctionedafter5years,and2.5%ofthe150GBharddrivesmalfunctionedafter5yearsand1.5%
ofthe200GBharddrivesmalfunctionedafter5years.Thereareanequalnumberof100GBand200GB
harddriveswhiletherearetwiceasmany150GBharddrives.Forpartsa)andb)youcanassumethat5
yearshavepassed.(Showallofyourworkandputaboxaroundyourfinalanswer):
a) Determinethelikelihoodthatgivenaharddrivefailurethatisa200GBharddrive(2Marks).
b) Determinethelikelihoodthataharddrivefails(2Marks).
Question 4) Every week the biomedical engineering department of a hospital must allocate their four
membertechnicalstaffmembersfordifferenttasks.Oneofthetasksisroutinemaintenanceofmedical
equipment. For any given week the number of technicians needed for maintenance is given by the
followingprobabilitydensity:theprobabilityofneedingnotechniciansis0.2,ofneedingonetechnician
is 0.3, of needing two technicians is 0.3, of needing three technicians is 0.1 and of needing four
techniciansis0.1.(Showallofyourworkandputaboxaroundyourfinalanswer)
a) Computetheexpectednumberoftechniciansneededformaintenance(1Mark).
b) Computethevarianceofthenumberoftechniciansneededformaintenance(1Mark).
c) Compute the probability that when 25% of the technicians are sick (i.e. unavailable) there will
beenoughstafftoperformroutinemaintenance(1Mark).
d) Compute the cumulative distribution function for the above probability density function (1
Mark).
Formulas
Permutationsofsubsetssizerfromasetofnelements:
n!
(n-)!

Combinationsofsubsetssizerfromasetofnelements:[
n
r
=
n!
!(n-)!

AdditionRule:
P(A U B U C) = P(A) +P(B) +P(C) - P(A r B) - P(A r C) -P(B r C) + P(A r B r C)
BayesRule:P(E
k
|B) =
P(B|L
k
)P(L
k
)
P(L
k
|B)P(L
k
)

TotalProbability:P(B) = P(B|E
k
)P(E
k
)
n
k=1

Mean:p = E(X) = x(x)
uII_x

Variance:o
2
= I(X) = E((X - p)
2
)
BinomialDistribution:(x) = [
n
x
p
x
(1 - p)
n-x

GeometricDistribution:(x) = p
1
(1 - p)
x-1

NegativeBinomialDistribution:(x) = [
x - 1
r - 1
(1 - p)
x-
p

PoissonDistribution:(x) =
c
-Z
x
x
x!

UniformDistribution(nelement):f(x)=1/n

Answers
Q1a)
b)x=0.7
Q2)a)prob(X=1orX=2)=0.8574(Binomialn=2,p=0.62244)
b)prob(X=2orX=3orX=4)=0.8457(Binomialn=2,p=0.62244)
c)Mostreliablesystemhasthehighestprobabilityoffunctioning2enginehasP(working)=0.8574
whilethe4engineplanehasP(working)=0.8457.
Q3)a)P(failure|200GB)whichis0.15
b)P(failure)=0.025

Q4)a)E(x)=1.6
b)V(X)=1.44
c)P(X<4)=0.9
d)X=0,F(0)=0.2;X=1,F(1)=0.5;X=2,F(2)=0.8,X=3,F(3)=0.9,X=4,F(4)=1.0