India Against Corruption- a garbage can situation?

India Against Corruption is a people's movement which started in the spring of 2011- with a hunger strike by a ! year old activist- Anna "a#are$ demanding a strong %mbudsman bill& 'he subse(uent events have been compared to 'ehrir )(uare and ensuing Arab spring& 'his paper applies %rgani*ed anarchy model of decision making to these developments$ which continue to unfold towards an apparent deadline in 201!+ general elections in India$ to which most actors in this unrest$ look to$ with big hopes& "ere are the main events and actors'he main actors can be divided in the following loose groups+ 1& Actors from Civil society+ Anna "a*are and his team& In 2012$ this group split+ ,e#riwal and his group opting for political route to fight corruption- Anna group continues to act as a vigilante civic group- keepers of the conscience of this country and ./ year old democracy& 2& Political actors+ 0any corrupt politicians and their cohorts- some within 1arliament$ fifteen of whom have been accused of stalling the %mbudsman bill for very obvious reasons& If the bill gets passed$ they will be behind the bars21 'he two ma#or political parties 3Congress and 4516$ who are supposed to oppose each other on issues of policy and governance$ but often collaborate 3log roll6 behind the scenes when it comes to corrupt land deals and mutual gratification& 4oth the parties have tried to dilute the %mbudsman bill& 7& Media is an important actor as it shapes nation's perception through popular debates and sting operations& About a decade ago$ corruption was 8%' a ma#or issue for the Indian polity& 8o political party talked about giving transparent clean governance in its election manifesto& )tarting with 'ehelka e9pose$ many sting operations have been conducted by media$ targeting corruption in :high places;& A recent reverse sting operation by a Congress politician 0r 5indal has raised (uestions about ob#ectivity of media too& !& Parliament is the highest legislative body$ e9pected to make laws in respect of wishes of common people$ as e9pressed through their chosen representatives- members of parliament 3016& 4ut as mentioned earlier$ criminali*ation of politics over last 2-7 decades has led to a state$ where parliamentary processes can be manipulated$ neutrali*ed 3by referring important issues to inefficient sub-committees6 and subverted through log-rolling by a small groups of legislators with vested interests& Background to Ombudsman bill+ 'hough there are two ape9 bodies- Central <igilance Commission 3C<C6 and Central 4ureau of Investigation 3C4I6- to deal with corruption$ both have been ineffective due to political interference and manipulations by the political party in power& =riven by the dire need for an autonomous mechanism$ %mbudsman bill was introduced in the 1arliament$ a total of eight times since 1>.?$ with no results& 0edia continued to e9pose scams by legislators$ politicians$ senior bureaucrats$ their family members and cronies& A charismatic leader was needed to highlight the issue and push the bill& Anna launched a nation-wide stir for %mbudsman bill right at the center of power- =elhi$ in April 2011& Anna "a#are had come to fame with his crusades against corrupt public officials and ministers in the state of 0aharashtra& "is method of protest- fasting$ is reminiscent of @andhi's non-violent protest against colonial masters before Indian Independence& 4ut he has also been accused of using moral blackmail of :fast unto death; to force his opinion on the state and others& "e has been known to flog people to stop the problem of alcoholism in his village& A case of unclear identities+ Is he a true @andhian or a megalomaniac using @andhian approachA Bhile on a fast unto death in =elhi in =elhi$ Anna met other crusaders and his team members+
1 'hese fifteen are actually central cabinet ministers 3link6& It appears that 4ritish 1arliamentary system is facing the similar dilemma 3link6

4aba Camdev$ a Doga teacher- ,e#riwal an e9-bureaucrat- ,iran 4edi an e9-cop- 0anish )isodiya a :Cight to Information; activist$ =r ,umar 4iswas a poet and a social communicator etc& 'he government buckled under the popular protests$ brought up a diluted version of %mbudsman bill for debate in the parliament& 'his group of crusaders began to scatter subse(uently on various issues+ 4aba Camdev focused on black money stashed abroad by the ruling cli(ue 3the Congress party6 and was seen to be close to opposition$ the 451$ the "indu right wing party& Another (uestion was+ )hould the group enter politics to defeat corrupt politiciansA ,e#riwal and his supporters were convinced that protests alone can not change the situation& 'hey opted for political means- by starting a party and deciding to contest elections& Anna "a#are has decided to recruit a new group- including the e9 Army chief and #udicial big-wigs$ to continue protesting corruption as a civil group& In the meantime$ ,e#riwal and his group 3India Against Corruption6 has been e9posing one scam after another in 2012$ beginning from 0r Badra$ the son-in-law of all powerful Congress leader$ 0rs )onia @andhi to 451 supremo$ 8itin @adkari& Bith this last e9pose$ it becomes believable that he is trying to discredit both the national parties as deeply corrupt and in cohorts with each other$ and carve out a new constituency for his party& %r does he simply want to discredit all political parties and ensue anarchyA )ome commentators doubt that he has a viable plan& 8ow$ if we apply organi*ed anarchy model to this scenario$ here are the points of consonance+ 1& Unclear Solutions 'he ruling party 3Congress6$ led by an economist$ =r 0anmohan )ingh$ wants us to believe that the real issue India faces is maintaining E growth rate of the Indian economy- and therefore stability at every cost must be ensured& %pposition 3451 and its allies6 think that the solution is controlling the prices of day to day commodities and having a strong governance to safe guard national security against terrorist$ separatist etc& Common people$ informed and influenced by an activist media$ believe that corruption is the '%1 issue today& 1olitical class thinks that anarchy and destabili*ation will result if %mbudsman bill is given too sweeping a power- like bringing the 1rime 0inister under its ambit and therefore only a diluted bill should be allowed at present& 5udiciary and bureaucracy (uestions how %mbudsman and its small team is ever going to deal with thousands of corruption cases being unearthed every day2 "ow will it work and implement its decisions$ when regular courts have cases pending for yearsA )o$ they want the e9isting institutions 3C4I and C<C6 to be strengthened$ in stead& Bithin the anti corruption front$ Anna prefers a civil action$ ,e#riwal considers political movement necessary while Camdev is focused on 4lack money stashed abroad and some conciliatory gestures to farmers& Camdev thinks that if all the black money is brought back$ it will solve all the problems of the country for ever& Clearly this is a scenario where solutions being put forward are unclear and shaped by parochial interests and limited understanding of a very comple9 situation& 2. Turn over of the actors fluidity of interactions If we consider the national capital 3=elhi6 as the logical choice of various actors to congregate to$ and try and influence parliament and national politics$ then$ it is obvious that since April 2011$ many of the protagonist have come and gone- those who have stayed on have changed their tactics& For e9ample$ 4aba Camdev did a fast in 5une 2011 and was forcibly evicted& A C4I in(uiry against his own trust has kept him :busy; and (uiet ever since& After the %mbudsman bill was stalled in the parliament$ Anna "a#are went back to his home village in 0aharashtra and has been keeping low& ,e#riwal and his splinter group has been taking on both the national parties for last few months& 0edia$ which has been earlier fascinated by Anna and Doga @uru$ is now digging deeper in the leads offered by ,e#riwal and his team& 'ill )eptember 2012$ ruling party 3Congress6 was under the

scanner- with its Gaw 0inister 3)alman ,hurshid6 and Cobert Badera under cloud& 8ow with opposition party chief 38itin @adkari6 fully e9posed$ the entire political class stands naked& 4oth parties have #oined hands now to discredit ,e#riwal and his team by digging into their past& Gatest actors to enter this arena are- )heila =i9it$ Chief 0inister of =elhi$ who has sued ,e#riwal for defamation$ in a toughening of Congress party's stance against anti-corruption crusaders& 4ut )heila =i9it has also given in- by reducing the power tariffs- a source of agitation& %ther recent entrants in the foray are =igvi#ay )ingh$ =r )wami and some Corporate H media players- with all kind of accusations flying around& 'hird (uarter of 2012 in India could be called the most intense period of scams$ e9pose$ sting operations$ rallies$ mud-slinging etc& 'he central cabinet of ministers has undergone biggest reshuffle in %ctober 2012- as a result of these accusations& 4ut media believes that this cabinet change is only a change in appearance- not in substance and intent& 7& Unclear !references and "dentities IAC 3India against corruption6 began as a civil movement& )ome of its members started a political party$ with sights set on the ne9t general elections& )ome wish to retain the high moral ground by sticking to its original non-political nature and intentions of never holding any office& )ome members of this group leaned towards Cight wing 451$ as if Congress is corrupt and 451 is not& ,e#riwal's group has successfully proved that both the parties are two faces of one and same coin+ rampant corruption& 'here are others who want to deal with corruption affecting the common mannot the corporate corruption& 451 supported this movement as long as Congress was getting the flak& Bhen 451 itself became the target$ it has #oined Congress in saying that ,e#riwal should come up with political solutions rather than conducting :media trials;& "is group has also been accused of receiving western funding to destabili*e India2 Bhen misdeeds of big corporate players 3Celiance6 were unearthed$ both 451 and Congress have blamed each other& 'he (uestion still awaiting a clear answer+ Is the 1rime 0inister of India$ under pressure from Corporate housesA Bhose interest does he representA Common Indian or 4ig corporationsA "is own political party or the nation at largeA !& #indo$ of o!!ortunity % &eadline Binter session of Indian parliament begins 21st 8ovember and could be an opportunity for all the parties to #oin hands and give the nation a strong %mbudsman bill& Bill theyA Chances are bleak because opposition is in a combative mood and plans to bring in no-confidence move on another issue+ Foreign =irect Investment 3F=I6 in the retail sector& )o$ chances are- political parties will either dilute the bill or postpone it under the smoke screen of other contemporary issues& 4ut then$ there is another deadline approaching+ 'he general elections in 201!$ by when everyone will have to take a stand on corruption and the %mbudsman bill& In the meantime$ there are some state elections during which ,e#riwal's party- IAC$ will try and force people to vote on the issue of probity and ethics in public life& /& Choice arenas % Unclear technologies As of now$ the battle between forces of change and status (uo is being fought in four arenas- we can also think of these as diverse technologies$ being used by these diverse actors$ who may not be able to negotiate with each other at a common ground$ because of segmented I hierarchical access rules& For e9ample- ,e#riwal and 0anmohan )ingh can not meet and talk in 1arliament$ since one is a parliamentarian while the other is #ust a guy in the street& In fact$ recently when ,e#riwal went to see him to hand him a memorandum$ he was arrested& )o here are the four arenas and the technologies in use+ 16 Parliament- governed by corrupt parliamentarians and parochial politics& 26 Media Trials- a powerful tool used by anti-corruption crusaders& 'hese have been so effective

that ruling party 3Congress6 has issued a directive to its members not to talk to media about any accusation made by IAC& 76 Courts of 'a$ work slowly and steadily- they often come up with indictment against people in power but are (uite helpless in keeping the criminals out of politics& !6 Street corner !olitics and agitations + 'his avenue is popular among the common agitators and actors without backing of big parties& In recent demonstrations in Farrukhabad$ IAC demonstrated that common man supported them$ in stark preference to a national party like Congress& 'hese small victories of IAC could be the final undoing of Congress in 201! elections& .& Other elements of decision making 'he government and the ministers are supposed to act as rational actors- taking the decisions in the best interest of the country& 'hey try but often wilt under pressure from corporate lobbies and political allies& 'he political parties enter alliances with these actors to fund their election campaigns and sei*e the power& 0inisters head big bureaucracies 3like Army6 which indulge in their own politics& )o$ it appears that in this over all garbage can scenario$ there are many sub-plots$ wherein decisions are based on the conte9t$ e9pediency$ goals and role embracement& 4ut overallthere is a great uncertainty as to how one billion Indians will deal with this big issue of corruption in public life and governance& & Confluence of streams in 2()*+ 'here is a huge degree of ambiguity as to who could do what and with what degree of success in the present scenario& 4ut one thing can be said+ 'his ambiguity itself will push actors forward ine9orably& Jven though atmosphere is full of suspicion$ distrust and anger- I feel that various streams will seek out each other perforce and merge in 2-7 main streams of energies 3actors6$ solutions and problems 3perception thereof6 over ne9t 1-2 years& %f the two national parties$ one which embraces anti-corruption agenda the fastest H the best$ will have a better chance of returning to power& It may undergo alliance with anti-corruption forces before elections& 5udiciary may$ as it has done in the past$ take initiative and start suo-moto fast track action against corrupt politicians& 0edia too may take a strident anti-corruption stance$ generate huge public opinion and influence the elections& All this may happen2 %C may not happen$ depending on how vested interests react& 'hey may obfuscate the whole issue by bringing in right wing agenda$ fear of e9ternal threat$ offer sacrifice of small time politicians etc& )o what is the message for actors in this @arbage-Can scenario+ Anti-corruption crusaders should wait and watch 3let some more garbage be thrown in26- identify potential allies- wait for opportunities$ e9pect unplanned departures or entries and prepare for the =eadlines- %verload the system by unearthing scams every few days- keep the media busy with daily announcements of war on corruption- ,eep the bu** alive and remember that outcomes may not depend on their intentions but on fortuitous timing- so keep their faith alive$ be patient and set sights on 201! elections 3@iesecke $ 1>>16& Constraints of the model 'he only constraint I can think of+ the various actors seem to be shut off in different arenas- 'hey do not seem to have any parity or a common :technology; when it comes to making decisions affecting India$ as a whole& 'hey are not the typical managers in a given organi*ation- or librarians$ staff and students in a university library2 'hey do not even seem to share the same planet+ Anna$ 0ukesh Ambani$ )onia @andhi$ 0anmohan )ingh$ @adkari and the aam aadmi 35ohn I 5ane =oe of India6& 4ut may be this is the over all nature of the @arbage-Can+ anything can be thrown in and become the part of ambiguity which can lead to some interesting interactions and wild outcomes&
2 India has challenged and threw up authoritarian government in une9pected ways in the past too- refer :Jmergency; in 1> /- . K see link&

Anything can happen in a garbage can situation2 )atyendra )rivastava 3)tudent6 satksriLgmail&com %rgani*ational Analysis Coursera&org =ate+ 2nd 8ovember 2012