2012.08.

01

New Society
For Taiwan

(198297)

CEPAECFA

100

CONTENT

2
5

198297

15

www.taiwansig.tw
(02)23564008
(02)23564018
713F

26
33
41
47

CEPAECFA

53
63

The Dynamics of Beijing-Hong Kong Relations:

A Model for Taiwan

69

81
87

94

100

2001

90

199962011

12

2006

(I P O)

50%

30%

1,249

2009642

21

56.78% 9

10.19%

1989

15%)

CEPA

1984

201261925

201221

(Global Citizen)

50

CEPA

19841221

(stateness)

1997

Linz and Stepan

(1)

(2)

2012629

( C E PA )

43

1.Juan Linz and Alfred Stepan, 1996, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation. Johns
Hopkins Univ. Press.

23

19902000

CEPA

transition fatigue

(P a u l M o o n e y)

2011

2010

516

17%

2000

2012

1997

1997

1982

1989

1997

2002-3
2

23

2.

3.201079
BBC2010 7 8

ECFA

CEPAECFA

20121

2008

20087

(Mbius
s t r i p)

20124367
1,872

20125

2011

90,000

200811

20126-7

2 0 0 8 11

(NCC)2012

725

2009

20126

20106

ECFA16

4.Ho-fung Hung and Iam-chong Ip, 2012, Hong Kongs Democratic Movement and the Making
of Chinas Offshore Civil Society, Asian Survey, Vol. 52, Number 3, pp. 504527.

10

5.2012/7/12
6. 2004

...20042008

http://integration.org.tw/ 2012/7/12

11

(irredentist movement)

(supranational)

(subnational)

(sovereignty-contested
democratic state)

LinzStepan

(the state)

(realism)

(Realpolitik)

NGO

7.200911141-157
8.Linz and Stepan (1996: 19).

12

13

UCLA

1990-2010
http://www.ios.sinica.edu.tw/fellow/wujiehmin/

(1~)

689

19801997

1980

2080

14

(1)

15

1997

C h a l m e r s J o h n s o n

1997

1984

(Asian Survey)

199711671989

(1995)

8978

241

1983

16

1997

199814
152000

Wong

17

55%

1997

55%

1993

58%

198730

1978

19839

99

1949

10

100

1997

198311

1997

1984926

16%

76%

1989

1991
1992
1995

1.http://www.rthk.org.hk/special/
hkconnection/media/734.asx1996721201251

18

19

(1)

1980

1990

Wong199710915

23

1980

200993

11 2

1989

2.
http://www.hkbu.edu.hk/~pchksar/
201252

20

21

Wong1997122

1990

3.http://thosewerethedays.wordpress.com/2006/12/09/
/2006129201253

22

23

1980

1997

1992

1998

Wong1997137

1998

200993
1017
1 9 9 3

1995

1987

Johnson, Chalmers (1984, September),

The Mousetrapping of Hong Kong: A
Game in Which Nobody Wins, Asian
Survey, 24(9), 887-909.
Wo n g, Wa i-K w o k (1997, M a y), C a n
Co-optation Win Over the Hong Kong
People? Chinas United Front Work
in Hong Kong Since 1984, Issues &
Studies, 33(5), 102-137.

1982
97

24

25

(Kuan, 1999)

(hybrid

1992-93

1995

1978

1991

r e g i m e)

(transition fatigue)

()
1995

1998

()1995
9
98

1.: http://www.eac.gov.hk/pdf/
ecse/ch/2011ecse/guidelines/2011ecse_Appendix_2.pdf

26

27

9598

()1998

101995

Ma, 2001

200371

2003

1998

03

1995

2003

20072011

03

2004

60

(C h a n, 1999)

25

& 2002

1967

2001

1995

C E PA

2003

3.
4.h t t p://h k u p o p.h k u.h k/c h i n e s e/p o p e x p r e s s/p r e s s/
nm_credibility/index.html

2.2003(Cheng, 2009).

28

(F r e e d o m
House)2009

29

(partly

free)

2010

(Ma,

2011)

(Ma, 2007, pp.182-4, Appendix A)

2009-10

2007

2017

(h y b r i d

2009

(Finlandization)

2012

(liberal democracy)

Ottaway(2003)

(transition fatigue)

2010

r e g i m e)

1991

30

1991

2004

5.2010()2012

31

Chan Lau Kit-ching. 1999. From Nothing

t o N o t h i n g: t h e C h i n e s e C o m m u n i s t
Movement and Hong Kong. New York:
St.Martins Press.
Cheng, Jie. 2009. The Story of a New
Policy. Hong Kong Journal 15 (July
2009).
h t t p : / / w w w. h k j o u r n a l . o r g / a r c h i v e /
2009_fall/1.htm
Kuan, Hsin-chi. 1999. Is the One
C o u n t r y, T w o S y s t e m s F o r m u l a
Working? in Wang Gungwu and John
Wong eds., Hong Kong in China: The
Challenges of Transition. Singapore: Times
Academic Press. Pp.23-46.
Ma, Ngok. 2001. The Decline of the
Democratic Party in Hong Kong: The
Second Legislative Council Election in
HKSAR. Asian Survey 41, 4: 564-583.
Ma, Ngok. 2002. Factionalism in the
Democratic Party and the 2000 Election.
In Kuan Hsin-chi, Lau Siu-kai and Timothy
Wong Ka-ying eds. Out of the Shadow of
1997? The Legislative Council Election
in the Hong Kong Special Administrative
Region. Hong Kong: Chinese University of
Hong Kong. Pp.125-159.

Ma Ngok. 2007. Political Development in

Hong Kong: State, Political Society and
Civil Society. Hong Kong: University of
Hong Kong Press.
M a , N g o k . 2 0 11 . H o n g K o n g
s D e m o c r a t i c D i v i d e. J o u r n a l o f
Democracy 22, 1: 54-67.
O t t a w a y, M a r i n a. 2003. D e m o c r a c y
Challenged: The Rise of SemiA u t h o r i t a r i a n i s m. Wa s h i n g t o n D.C.:
Carnegie Endowment for International
Peace.
2001.

201119

18412

76
177

32

1982

1997

18

2011116

(:
2003):(
, 2010)

Political Development in Hong

Kong: State, Political Society and Civil Society (Hong Kong:
Hong Kong University Press, 2007);

1997

1. ()

2.

3.

4.
()

33

2009

2007

23

2003

2003

03

04

2003

2003

00

2003

<<>>

2003

2003

5071

10

12

2007

5.
6.<<>>

7.Jie Cheng, The Story of A New Policy, Hong Kong Joural, Fall 2009. http://www.hkjournal.
org/archive/2009_fall/1.htm
8.
9. <<>>2008128http://obelia2.
blogspot.com/2009/04/blog-post.html

34

11

10.
11., 20071125
12.

2004

35

2008

45

25

14

13

17

713

3221

2010

4,6001

18

4,200

400

0910

627

600

16

2006

97%1,000
602
60%

15

13.20111127
14.? 20111110
15. 6480 vs 627 , 20111019

36

16. ()2001

17.

37

20063

2012

2012

2008

18

2007

20121

18.
1994

38

39

1987
Tim Renton

201221

40

41

42

43

44

45

The Dynamics of Beijing-

Hong Kong Relations:
A Model for Taiwan

(T h e

Dynamics of Beijing-Hong Kong

Relations: A Model for Taiwan?)

2008

1997

( T h e A n n e x a t i o n
1

P e r s p e c t i v e)

( T h e C l a s h o f
2

Civilization Perspective)

1.Scrobell(1988)Hong Kong's Influence on China: The Tail That Wags the Dog?

2.S. Huntington1993
(, 2008:
16)

46

47

Control Perspective)

(nomenklatura)

(T h e P o l i t i c a l

1983
23
2007

(The Planning
and Coordination Perspective)

(P a t r o n-

9708

C o n t e x t)

(2)

B r i d g e)

Perspective)

(1)9+2

(3)
(Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau

(Bureaucratic Politics

(Fiscal Relations)

2003

106

3.Hong Kong Macao Affairs Office, HKMAO

4.Liaison Office

5.2012
1996
2012.03.27http://news.hkheadline.com/dailynews/content_hk/2012/03/2
7/184848.asp
6.2 003
20037150
2003.12.18http://
renminbao.com/rmb/articles/2003/12/18/29153b.html
7.9+2
200411
http://news.sina.com.cn/z/fanzhusanjiao/index.shtml
8.2001.4.9

48

Client Politics in a Pluralistic

1996-2005

2003
1999

02-0323

03S A R S

03
2003

49

50

0708

05

23

03

2005

9905

23

6030

30

11

(CEPA)

2003

9+2

23

2004

H Z M B

23

30525

2000

23

1980

23

158

97-08
10

99
0407

9.106
107

10.
2008
2007

11.20072017

2003

23

2007

2020

50

51

07

20095

199771

198412

35%

100%

2007

50

1984199713

1997

1,000

1949

15

1949

1.http://www.chinareviewnews.com/crnwebapp/cbspub/secDetail.jsp?bookid=5048&secid=5066
2. http://www.hkcea.com/history.asp

52

53

1951

90

90

70

2006

1983

(IPO)

1949

1978

161

80

1993
H

1993
7

5% 2008

1,087110H89

19918%2008
102,536

1993

2009

80

3.http://qkzz.net/magazine/0257-0181/2007/04/1143591
_1.htm
4.2007630http://www.china-cbn.com/s/n/015/20070630/0000000716
77.shtml

54

1,249

55,951
55%
2008

47658
6H294.88

45%

5.
6.http://www.gotoread.com/mag/8660/sarticle_23895.html
7.2008 http://www.hkex.com.hk/data/factbook/2008/c/01.pdf

55

201.9731%

34.92%

39.92%

6070

90

2008
174
45240H
1164
10
4425%
126
28%

939496
10

97

90

b)

80

1997

93

2009642

9697

21

56.78%

10.19%

15%

8. http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstockresearch/200
50518/14151598996.shtml
9. http://www.hsi.com.hk/HSI-Net/static/revamp/contents/
zh_hk/news/pressRelease/20090508c.pdf
10.http://the-sun.on.cc/channels/fina/20030820/20030820010023_0002_
1.html

56

13

27%

a)

9394

11

12

50%

1997

11. http://www.modernterminals.com/chi/theCompany/history.html
12.http://www.coscopac.com.hk/big5/business/terminal_portfolio.php
13.199492 http://www.fed.
cuhk.edu.hk/en/cumphil/94kklam/conclusion.htm
14.
1926
40
1950
19784
19833

50

1950510

57

2000

97

14

18

1967

2008

19671

1997

2008

(1989

97

1993

T V B

35%96

TVE

N O W

16

516

19855

1995

36%

15

80

15., , , 200179
16.1993

58

17

80

50%
19

17.2000 (
)2007
10.75
(Louis Page)Alnery47.58
14.81
26.85

64
2009129
Fireworks International Inc. Alnery 25%A100%B
47.58

18. , , 2008, 9
19., 2008122, : http://magazine.sina.com.hk/wealth/321/2008-12-02/200164607.
shtml

59

71

58.4%

10

20

21

1997

2005

22

200810

1984

1991

accumulator

150

20094

927

1998

20., 2007210h t t p://w w w.h k j a.o r g.h k/s i t e/p o r t a l/S i t e.a s p x?i d=A1661&lang=zh-TW
21.

22.1979

60

23

200271

97

2007

2003

50

24

23.12648176
4974

6633
61
39363625
21
24. http://www.fmcoprc.gov.hk/chn/yglz/
zyjh/hkqd5/t50834.htm
25., 2008http://www.hkcts.com/yuekan/200810/zlyj1.htm

61

CEPAECFA

201117

(s u b-

25

sovereignty)

1997

03

( C E PA )

50

CEPA

106

(Spill-over)

(ECFA)

(n e o-

functionalism)

1.Ernst Haas,?The Uniting of Europe: Political, Social, and Economic Forces, 1950-1957?(republished
by University of Notre Dame Press, 2004).
2.HKUPOP, http://hkupop.hku.hk/

62

63

YouTube

(64%)

500

(35%)

2011

M. D e G o l y e r

30%

11

(T h e O t h e r s)

(Social

Facebook

2011

(Discourse)

95%

2001

2006

201136

2013/14

C E PA

Nativism

GoebelWerner Destexhe

3.http://hknp.phpbboy.net/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=52
4. l i k eh t t p://
www.facebook.com/pages/like
Home/171381599576867, accessed July, 2011
5.1137
6. 11413

64

Identity)

7.1392001-2006http://www.censtatd.
gov.hk/hong_kong_statistics/statistical_tables/index_tc.jsp?charsetID=2&tableID=139

65

Nativism

(Identity Crisis)

ECFA

(Global Citizen)

6000

50

ECFA

E C FA

(Buffer
Zone)

(C o r e
Value)ECFA

1)

2)

ECFA
Comfort Zone.

3)

8.Derek Goebel, Dr. Werner Menski, Jean-Francois Destexhe, "Coping with 1997 : the reaction of the
Hong Kong people to the transfer of power, (UK: Trentham Book)
9.Law Kam-yee & Lee Kim-ming, Citizenship, Economy and Social Exclusion of Mainland Chinese
Immigrants in Hong Kong, Journal of Contemporary Asia; 2006; 36, 2; International Module; pg.
217

66

67

Roundtable

O
O

NOW

(2008; )blog
http://jackyfung.wordpress.com/

CEPAECFA

2012

201248

(dependent polity)

2008

(power dependence)
(Kuan 1991)

1993
2

12-15

19491978

1.

2.
3.1997

68

69

* 20101669

* 200310

2003

20118

1980

(Wong 1997)

* 20037C E PA

* 200410

* (2006)

2009

161

(2011)

50,300

20102011

112

27,881,940

* 20088

24.1%

66.5%

201217

* 20031

* 200912

24

199374

* 1998

(Mainland and Hong

Kong Closer Economic Partnership

A g r e e m e n tC E PA)

4.

5.CEPAhttp://www.tid.gov.hk/tc_chi/cepa/
6.http://www.hzmb.org

70

20112015

10

7.
http://www.cmab.gov.hk/tc/issues/12th_5yrsplan.htm
8.1974
2009
9.

10.20124
19

71

* 200712

2012

2012

11

* 20082

* 20029

23

12

200371

* 2004223

13

* 20044
0708
2007
2008

* 20076

14

* 20087

20101

2008157

20124

* 20123

11.

12.23

200323
13.1984

199361220
14.20081422

72

2004
6

(i d e n t i t y)

1997

73

17.8%

Wo n g 1 9 9 6 L a u

1989

1997Mathews 1997

8.23

2030

7.65

7.46

2000

7.016.91

2009

2004

2002354

1970

1967

2002

15

16

18

(cross-section data)

19996201112

50%

6.28

20

19978201112

30%

21

1997

2011121220

1980

37.7%

16.6%

25.3%

15.
2011
16.19916

74

17

19

22

17.

0.6%2.1%
http://hkupop.hku.hk
18.20111228
19.
2009
20.20111212201005
21.2008

75

2002355

1970

2012:90

2003

23

2 0 0 6 11
2007

20128089

2009

22. 20123912
38.6%36.2%
23.
2012124

76

24

25

(Lee and Chan 2005)

2011

2004217

(preferable)

24.

25.
1999: 24

77

2012

20116

2003

4.1%

2011

54.2%

31

2008

201280143

1992

2008

26

27

39.0%

29

20106

(Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation

28

Framework AgreementECFA)

32.6%

45.7%

2008

2012417

12

26.201210012
27.2012421
28.201233042

78

 2004

212-241
 2012

 2002

344-373
 2011
1947-2011

29. h t t p://e s c.n c c u.e d u.t w/m o d u l e s/t i n y d2/c o n t e n t/

TaiwanChineseID.htm

79

 2 0 1 1
6
28

 20122011
121


20105
 ?1999

 2008

 2 0 0 9

2008
74-83
 2012

 1 9 9 3

Kuan, Hsin-chi. 1991. Power dependence

and democratic transition: the case of Hong
Kong, The China Quarterly 128: 773-793.
Lau, Siu-kai. 1997. Hongkongese or Chinese:
The Problem of Identity on the Eva of
Resumption of Chinese Sovereignty over
Hong Kong. Hong Kong Institute of AsiaPacific Studies, The Chinese University of
Hong Kong.
Lee, Francis L. F. and Joseph Man Chan.
2005. Political attitudes, participation, and
Hong Kong identities after 1997, Issues &
Studies 41(2): 1-35.
M a t h e w s , G o r d o n . 1 9 9 7 .
Heunggongyahn: On the Past, Present, and
Future of Hong Kong Identity. Bulletin of
Concerned Asian Scholars 29(3):3-13.
Wong, Timothy Ka-ying. 1996. The Ethnic
and National Identities of the Hong Kong
People: A Liberal Explanation, Issues &
Studies 32(8): 105-130.
Wong, Wai-kwok. 1997. Can Co-optation
Win Over the Hong Kong People? China
s United Front Work in Hong Kong Since
1984, Issues & Studies 33(5): 102-137.

80

201011

2010

20105

(F r e e d o m H o u s e)

2010

20097572

2012

181

81

20105

5623

2010

428

72

35%

51

65%
(Facebook)YouTube

1826

13

534131

100,000

11714

http://www.facebook.com/

20082009

home.php?#!/group.php?gid=3123004

132

07802&ref=ts20107

105,664

55

4
27

82

best
breast

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v
=BQIhW4b5zSM&feature
452,127

1967

83

705

800

1200150

2012

2012

900

3,600

330

1,320

562

h t t p://w w w.

101,667

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2012

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84

85

2005

27

<

>

15

2034

542007

Freedom House2009

(Free)(Partly
1

F r e e)

2009Now
T V

1998

1.Freedom House, 2009 Report (http://www.freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-press/2009/hongkong)

86

87

2000

always simple, sometimes naive

(Michel Foucault)

()2009

1997

16

201164

2010

12

2.
(h t t p://l i n g f e n g c o m m e n t.p i x n e t.n e t/b l o g/p o s t/24988016%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E8%A8%98%E8%80%85%E8%A2%AB%E8%
A8%93%E6%96%A5%EF%BC%8C%E4%B8%80%E5%9C%8B%E5%85%A9%E5%88%B6%E5%
B7%B2%E8%B5%B0%E6%A8%A3)
3.2010 (h t t p://w w w.h k j a.o r g.h k/s i t e/p o r t a l/S i t e.a s p x?i d=A1938&lang=en-US)

88

22

200964

[]

89

2 0 11 7 6

2010
10

2010

()

4.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3MS0eJK4xzw&feature=results_video&playnext=1&list=PL
4CE566
5 . < >
h t t p : / / e v c h k . w i k i a . c o m / w i k i /
%E6%B1%9F%E6%BE%A4%E6%B0%91%E8%AA%A4%E5%82%B3%E6%AD%B
B%E8%A8%8A%E4%BA%8B%E4%BB%B6
6.[9]
[10][11][12]930
[13]
[14]

90

2012

2010

7.

91

--
--

20127

(consensus)

--

3
22

412

(University of
Sussex)BBC

2 0 0 3
17-3499-121

3-4

8. (http://www.hkja.org.hk/site/portal/Site.aspx?id=H1-190&lang=zh-TW)

92

93

201118

20115

94

1. 199718.6%
34.9%

2.

5
3.
http://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/200905/14/P200905140158.htm

95

2012

96

97

(S c h o l a r i s m)

4.
Democracy
Science

98

99

2012

1996

2008

2012

13

1982

1990

97

2012

18%

45%

2009

1990

19962000

2002

2008

ECFA
2012

1.

100

CEPA

20002004

201271

199715

15

l990

90

2011

1997

71

2012

57%

51%

28%

2.2012 P39

101

35490
20690(2011)

2008

1993

1980~90

97

823

19491960

1994

1996

201011

42%48%

49%57%

13
2300

3.

102

194597

4.
1989
5.
6.

7.2005 P201
8.97

:
6000
D&G

201032,65336.9%140%

9.
2012

103

2006

2008

1990

10

11

97

2000

8.5%

2000
2000

13

1990

19861989

2008

1993

50%70%

10%

37

2000

(mind control)

36

20002004

1987

12

2008

C
1980

1990

4
2012

2008

10.l991/

104

1990

11.

622011
12.
1234

105

13

1980

ECFA

13.

106

80~90
14

50

97

15

16

2012

14.228
1960
15.
16.

107

25%

20%

T V B S

___

20

97

2008

17

___

1990

2007

17.

108

109

1947

19793

Murray MacLehose

19829

924

198371213

725726

8283
922923

19844

Geoffrey Howe
420Geoffrey Howe
199771

81

Geoffrey
Howe
1997

926

Richard Evans

22

19841219

19854

1985

19884

19892

199044

1997627

Henry
Pottinger

199763011
30

http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/#cite_note-fmcoprc1-17

110