Syria Deeply: Ukraine Casts a Shadow that Highlights Syrian War Dynamics

3/3/14, 8:51 PM

Syria Deeply: Ukraine Casts a Shadow that Highlights Syrian War Dynamics

Dear Deeply Readers, As the world watches and worries about an escalating crisis in Ukraine, Russias bold moves to protect its interests there are sparking comparisons with its role in Syria. If Ukraine constitutes Russias eastern defensive wall against Europe, Syria!is part of Moscows southern flank, wrote Robert Fisk in The Independent. He sees Russias support for ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych as a signal to Syrias President Bashar al Assad that he can count on steadfast backing from Moscow. The conservative Wall Street Journal editorial page called Ukraine a casualty of the Mr. Obama's failure to enforce his red line on Syria. Arab analysts agree. The US dithering, noncommittal stances and the fear of abandonment do not instill confidence in the Obama administration!what we see in Ukraine today confirms that and conjures bewilderment as we witness the cost of inaction, spreading from Syria to Ukraine, says Abdullah Al Shayji in Gulf News. In contrast, Russia has been stable in its pro-Assad stance; Al Monitor concludes that policy is now on auto-pilot. Ultimately, the dynamics in Ukraine may be more clarifying than they are consequential: they show how quickly and briskly Russia can move to shape and maintain conditions in its favor. The U.S. and Europe, on the other hand, have shown they have less support to offer and a flaccid political will on acts of military intervention. That being the case, with no counterbalance to Russias hand in Syria, certain trends are clear to continue. In relative terms, Assad is gaining ground and winning terrain not sufficient to outright win the war, but enough to shore up his confidence and political calculus. The strategy of localized ceasefires, which the Associated Press analyzed in detail, has been a regime win; it neutralized some rebel areas around Damascus and saved Assads Army the
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Syria Deeply: Ukraine Casts a Shadow that Highlights Syrian War Dynamics

3/3/14, 8:51 PM

energy of having to fight them. For rebel neighborhoods, its been an act of desperation, more than reconciliation. It's a submission strategy, said one rebel in the besieged neighborhood of Mleiha. The people are tired. They will do anything to let in food. Meanwhile, the battlefield stands to get even messier. This week the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), an ultra-extremist al- Qaida offshoot, became the pointed target of other Islamist rebel groups after being accused of killing Abu Khaled al-Suri, an al -Qaida emissary. Jabhat al Nusra, now the most prominent al- Qaida affiliate in Syria, issued an ultimatum saying ISIS should submit to clerical arbitration or be expelled from Syria. Inter-rebel fighting intensified around that point; among the shifts, ISIS was reportedly driven from Azaz, a strategic town three miles from the Turkish border. Pulling back from Azaz and from Aleppo, ISIS consolidated its position in Raqqa, a city it has largely controlled since April 2013. Raqqa has become the de facto ISIS capital; the real-life worst nightmare for many Syrians and a boost to Assads argument toward being a more attractive alternative to rebel rule. Weve covered the impact of ISIS rule on Raqqas women and civilians, now subject to the rules of a conservative Islamic emirate. The citys Christians communities have also been made to pay a special tax, officially for their protection. Even while jihadi groups antagonize the people and fight against each other, they remain the stronger and more organized force as compared to their moderate counterparts. This week Ben Hubbard and Karam Shoumali of the New York Times covered how the U.S.backed Supreme Military Council is in chaos. It comes as the regime sets its sights on the rebel stronghold of Yabroud, reportedly planning a new assault with the help of Hezbollah. In a stunning photo that went viral this week, a sea of beleaguered people lined up for food in the Yarmouk refugee camp. Filippo Grandi, the head of UNRWA, likened it to the appearance of ghosts!.they can hardly speak. I tried to speak to many of them, and they all tell the same stories of complete deprivation.The BBCs Lyse Doucet collected scenes and stories from the ground.

Highlights from Syria Deeply: Hezbollah Still Confident, Invested in Syrias Fight Alone in Moadimiya, But Vowing to Stay Syria ER: Targeting Hospitals, Hit By Air In Istanbul, Syrians Find Shelter Alongside Stray Dogs

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Syria Deeply: Ukraine Casts a Shadow that Highlights Syrian War Dynamics

3/3/14, 8:51 PM

In Kilis, Refugees Coming to Terms with Leaving Home ISIS, YPG Clash in Several Key Kurdish Towns In Raqqa, People Protest and Women Chafe Under ISIS Control Headlines from the Week: Daily Star: Sleiman: Border Attacks Aim to Draw Lebanon into Syria Crisis Reuters: Al Qaeda Splinter Group Denies Killing Islamist Rival in Syria NPR: Syria On Track to Become Worlds Largest Source of Refugees Reuters: Syria Agrees New April Target to Remove Chemicals NY Times: Israeli Warplanes Strike Near the Border of Syria and Lebanon Were fielding your feedback on how to better serve you and cover the story. You can reach our team on email at info@syriadeeply.org.

Sincerely, The News Deeply Team

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