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25 1.00

0.90

20 0.80

0.70

15 0.60

0.50

10 0.40

0.30

5 0.20

0.10

0 0.00
-INF - 0 0.5 - 1 1.5 - 2 2.5 - 3 3.5 - 4 4.5 - 5 5.5 - 6 6.5 - 7 7.5 - 8 8.5 - 9 9.5 - 10

Number of Grades within Range Cumulative

Question 1

10% 50% 90%


Question 2

10% 50% 90%


Question 3

10% 50% 90%


Question 4

10% 50% 90%


Question 5

10% 50% 90%


Question 6

10% 50% 90%


Question 7

10% 50% 90%


Question 8

10% 50% 90%


Question 9

10% 50% 90%


Question 10

10% 50% 90%

-1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00


Score on HW Question (./1)

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Red Sox win $500


Bets “Red Sox win” 0.4
$200 Red Sox lose $0
0.6
$200 Red Sox win $0
Bets “Red Sox lose” 0.4
$75 Red Sox lose $125
0.6

Red Sox win $500


Bets “Red Sox win” 1
$500 Red Sox lose $0
Clairvoyant says
“Red Sox will win” 0
0.4 Red Sox win $0
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$0 Red Sox lose $125
0
$275 Red Sox win $500
Bets “Red Sox win” 0
$0 Red Sox lose $0
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0.6 Red Sox win $0
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$125 Red Sox lose $125
1

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exercise option
0.6 $40.00 (=50-10)
price goes up 50 40 0.56
2 0.555556
0 90
0.84 do not exercise option
$90.00 (=100-10)
Buy option 100 90 0.84
0.838717
-10 63.76036
0.73 exercise option
0.4 $40.00 (=50-10)
price goes down 50 40 0.56
1 0.555556
0 40
1 0.56 do not exercise option
$63.76 $20.00 (=30-10)
0.725 30 20 0.33
0.333333
0.6
price goes up
$100.00
Do not Buy option 100 100 0.87
0.868313
0 59.9254 0.4
0.70 price goes down
$30.00
30 30 0.46
0.455669
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$40.00 (=50-10)
Buy option 50.000 40.000
2 0.556
-10.000 90.000
0.600 0.839 Do not exercise option
Price goes up $90.00 (=100-10)
2 100.000 90.000
100.000 0.839
0.868
Do Not buy option
$100.00
100.000 100.000
0.868

$67.06 Exercise option


0.743 $40.00 (=50-10)
Buy option 50.000 40.000
1 0.556
-10.000 40.000
0.400 0.556 Do not exercise option
Price goes down $20.00 (=30-10)
1 30.000 20.000
40.000 0.333
0.556
Do Not buy option
$30.00
30.000 30.000
0.456

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