TARGET TECHNICAL REVIEW FOR THE WEEK ENDED 28TH FEBRUARY 2014- NO.

00162014

GENERAL COMMENT The movement of the index for the last 2 weeks was from 38,296 to 39,558. This is a type of market that can make most investors to be perplexed. For example, I can say within the last January to date, I am making one of the largest gains and equally one of the largest losses. If you look at the stock market summary for the week (see some extracts below). I tried to play on the fundamental side, by buying Oasis Insurance, the market slapped me with about 15% loss instantly, my stockbroker did well by getting me about 100,000 units of the share for NGN0.62, initial target price is NGN0.86 and I expect, if the worst come to see the price drop to NGN0.50. The projected loss for me is bearable, compared with the 2008 general decline. Purchases of OASIS share then reminded me that if you are using fundamentals, you have to wait. For example many of us have been buying PZs good fundamentals, but the general market is yet to recorganise the value of the stock, but thank God again the retracement has always been between NGN34 and NGN42 not that bad.

TOPIC FOR THE WEEK- FUNDAMENTAL OR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WHICH IS BETTER This is a very interesting topic that normally generates a lot of controversies. Let us do a general discussion first and then you as an individual can take your stand and see which will be more beneficial to apply in a particular state of the market

CRITERIA Definition

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Calculation of stock value is done using economic factors, known as fundamentals. When price falls below intrinsic value Investing Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA), Earnings, Earnings Growth Higher. Trading firms have various external Consultants /talking to management/social trend research etc.

Uses price and volume behaviour to predict future price movements When trader believes they can sell it off for a higher price Trading- Shorter time Dow Theory, Price Data, Volume Cheaper, All that is needed is a charting software/algorithm software

When to buy shares Functional usefulness Concepts used Resources/da ta collection \cost

Level of risk tolerant

User must be ready to wait for the market to recognise the fundamentals of the stock. Higher risk appetite necessary

Risk level can be lower, as a normal technical trader put in an exit level/target profit levels immediately a trade is taken

The popular example of a fundamental investor is Warren Buffet, if you read the book buf fettology you discover that Buffet is not just an ordinary investor, he virtually takes part in the management of the companies he invests in. He invests for the long term; he has a deep pocket to withstanding periods of time that the companies are being built up. Many fundamental investors also have access to superior information; Goldman Sachs had premonition of problem in subprime mortgages and bail out before the general public knew of the problem http://www.sec.gov/news/press/2010/2010-59.htm. Technical analyst on the other hand only follows what the market is doing, i.e. follow the steps of the deep pockets as revealed by the volume and price information. In any stock market, the institutional investors dictate the pace of prices and in many instances a good technical analyst can always know by looking at the volume/money flow. In conclusion what we need to know as somebody who wants to profit from the capital market, we need to have an idea of both and apply them as appropriate. Other Matters a) Stock selection for the week/next 2 weeks. The market is still dull. I am likely to sell to cash some profits, and if I am to buy, the fundamentals will have to lead and the technical follows. Stock Good For Buying .UBA Capital, Sterling bank,Dangote Cement Stocks To Sell: - International Energy, Costain

b)

Target Prices for year for some stocks Contd MARKET PRICE AS AT JAN 2 2014 (NGN) Forecast 1ST Top Forecast Final Top Forecast 1st Temporary Bottom Forecast Expected Final Bottom

STOCK/INDEX

JAPAULOIL JBERGER LIVESTOCK

0.58 72.29 4.51

0.62

0.69

0.59

0.50

61.50 7.08

70.00 9.11

61.50 4.19

54.23 2.16

MANSARD NASCON

2.5 14.85

2.68 16.60

3.16 18.64

2.20 11.38

1.98 10.19

165.01 NB INTENEGINS NAHCO 0.55 6.36

168.03 1.03 7.16 187.59 1.20 7.84 154.90 0.65 5.68 141.40 0.50 4.17

This target for 2014, has been very interesting and I have been making use of it and the result I will be able to disclose as time goes on.

c) Some Reports Release for the weekOther Sources -Transcorp Nigeria Plc released its 2013 FY audited results showed a revenue of N2.18billion (2012 FY: N2.36billion) for the company. The company ended the year with a profit after tax of N2.8billion 11% higher than the N2.5billion posted in 2012. Nigeria Stock Exchange Website

In conclusion, I will very much encourage you to subscribe for the paid version of this newsletter as you will get ideas that are worth trading on, plus have the opportunity for you to talk with me at any critical time you need my opinion. This year we must all make money together and avoid making losses. I assure you that you will get full value for your money. The subscription will contain the charts, the reasons behind the recommendations, my weekly selection table, where to get free stock charts, how to read the charts for the stock on my selection list and be able to target the stocks that are likely to give good moves on your own.

Writer: Yusuf Kelani ACA. Final Securities Trading Certification from Ghana Stock Exchange There is a better version of this newsletter available (this is the subscription version). At a very reasonable fee, you can have my full fortnightly analysis. I am sure the gains from the newsletter can more than pay for the cost over 100times. For rate for the newsletter, you can contact me. The newsletter will be sent to you forthrightly. To gauge the performance you can follow my postings on scribd and other blogs. Just google Target Technical analysis of Nigeria Stock market. Explanation of Terms: Support: Price at which on can start thinking of buying. This is like saying get set to buy. It is a forecast buying Zone. Resistance: Price at which you should think of selling/taking some profit or exercise caution in buying at this price.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation. Contact:+2348023054935, E-Mail- 2002yok@gmail.com

See some of my Videos on stock Investment- http://www.youtube.com/user/newyorktraders/feed?filter=2 Get text of my newsletters on scribd.com; http://www.scribd.com/doc/207930034/Target-TechnicalNewsletter-No-15-14-February-2014-Final-Nigeria-Stocks