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Abstract
Building damage due to a scenario earthquake in Metro Manila, Philippines is estimated based on seismic performance of the buildings
evaluated by local experts’ judgments. For the damage estimation, building capacity curves and fragility curve are developed from
questionnaire to the local experts of structural engineering. The Delphi method is used to integrate the experts’ opinions. The derived
capacity curves are validated by comparing with the result of pushover analysis for typical buildings. Building responses due to simulated
ground motions are estimated by the capacity spectrum method. Damage ratios are calculated from the fragility curves and the building
responses. Distributions of the damaged buildings are computed by multiplying the damage ratios and the building inventory. The
distribution and the amount of the damaged buildings in this study show significant difference from the estimation with the capacity
curves of HAZUS, suggesting the importance of evaluation of the region-specific building performance.
r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Building damage estimation; Seismic performance; Capacity spectrum method; Local experts; Delphi method; Metro Manila
0267-7261/$ - see front matter r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.soildyn.2007.10.011
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2. Earthquake environment in Metro Manila, Philippines Fig. 2. Geomorphological classification map and active faults in Metro
Manila after Matsuda et al. [10].
Metro Manila consists of seventeen cities and munici-
palities including Manila, Makati, Quezon and Marikina. of 15–30 m. The coastal lowland extending along the
Fig. 1 shows the location of Metro Manila and the urban Manila bay is on soft sand and clay deposits with a
sprawl [9]. In around 1950 the urbanized area was less than thickness of several to 40 m. The Marikina valley is
100 km2 with a population of 1.6 million, but now is bounded by the central plateau and the Sierra Madre
expanded to more than 600 km2 with a population of 10 range, and consists of a delta and a muddy flood plain. The
million. In the old areas in Metro Manila such as Manila thickness of the surface soft deposits reaches 50 m at a
city, densely built-up area with low-rise and mid-rise maximum.
buildings has been developed. In the newly developed Since the Luzon Island including Metro Manila is
commercial zones such as Makati and Marikina, many located between the Eurasian Plate to the west and the
high-rise buildings have been constructed. According with Philippine Sea Plate to the east, the seismic and volcanic
the sprawl of the urbanized area, new commercial zones activities are high. After the Spanish Empire colonized the
have been expanded. Philippines in the 15th century, description or accounts of
Fig. 2 shows the geomorphological classification map of earthquakes have been maintained in various letters and
Metro Manila [10]. The area is divided broadly into three chronicles. The historical earthquake data in Metro
parts: Central plateau, Coastal lowland and Marikina Manila, as well as the instrumentally derived earthquake
valley. The central plateau is on stiff soils with an elevation data gathered in the 20th century, have been compiled in
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the previous study [11]. According to the earthquake data, categories. Capacity curve for each category is developed
seismic intensity more than VII in Modified Rossi-Forel by integrating the experts’ opinions. The non-linear
intensity scale have been recorded for 28 times during response of the building is estimated from the capacity
recent 400 years. As an example of the recent earthquakes, curve and demand curve converted from the ground
in the Luzon earthquake of July 16, 1990 (M7.8), Intensity motion spectrum. Damage state for each building category
VII was recorded and minor building damage was caused is determined by the building response and fragility curves.
in Metro Manila. The average return period for a Finally, combining the damage state of each building
destructive earthquake (Intensity VIII) was roughly esti- category and building inventory data, the distribution of
mated at about 80 years [11]. the building damage is computed.
In the Metro Manila area, there are two major active
faults. One is the West valley fault located between the 3.2. Ground motion estimation
central plateau and the Marikina valley, and another is
the East valley fault situated between the Marikina valley The West valley fault is selected as the source of a
and the Sierra Madre range. Trench-excavation survey at scenario earthquake because the fault is closer to the
the northern end of the West valley fault suggests the central part of Metro Manila. The ground motions due to
recurrence of hundreds rather than thousands of years [12]. the West valley fault are simulated using the fault model
Besides, these faults have high potential to produce a and the underground structure model. Fig. 4(a) and (b)
damaging earthquake with magnitude of 6–7 [12]. Disaster shows the fault model and major fault parameters used in
mitigation planning to the earthquakes triggered by these the simulation. After determining the fault length from the
faults seems as urgent issue for Metro Manila. geomorphology in and around the fault, the other fault
parameters such as the fault width, the seismic moment, the
area of asperities and the average slip are estimated based
3. Flow of building damage estimation on the recipe for predicting strong ground motions [16].
The fault length and the moment magnitude of the
3.1. Overview earthquake are set as 40 km and Mw 6.7, respectively.
Two asperities are located in the fault and the rupture
Fig. 3 shows the flowchart of the building damage starts from northern bottom of the fault.
estimation adopted in this study. After setting parameters The underground structure model with a 500 m mesh
for a fault model of a scenario earthquake in Metro system is constructed from the about 400 boring data, the
Manila, ground motions at surface are computed using geomorphological classification map [10] and the geophy-
hybrid simulation technique [13,14] and soil response sical explorations [17]. The ground motions on the
analysis [15] based on underground structure model. engineering bedrock with the shear-wave velocity of about
Building response due to the ground motion is evaluated 400 m/s are computed by the hybrid simulation technique
by the capacity spectrum method. First, the buildings [13,14]. The simulation technique consists of the stochastic
existing in Metro Manila are classified into several green function for ground motion with short period (less
than 1 s) and the 3-D finite difference method for ground
motion with long period (more than 1 s).
Scenario Earthquake
The ground motions at the surface are computed by the
soil response analysis with the SHAKE program [15]. The
surface soils in Metro Manila are broadly classified into
Hybrid Simulation and
Soil Response Analysis
three types: clay, sand and gravel. The dynamic soil
properties proposed in the previous study [18] are applied
in the computation. Fig. 5 illustrates the relationships
Computation of Surface between the shear modulus ratio, damping factor and shear
Ground Motion strain for each soil type used in the analysis.
Capacity Curves Fig. 4(c) shows the computed peak ground velocity
(vectorial summation of two horizontal motions) on the
Capacity Spectrum Method surface. Fig. 6 indicates 5%-damped velocity response
spectrum and demand curves at Ermita and Quezon
Fragility Curves
computed from the simulated ground motions. The
Estimation of Damage Ratio
demand curve is defined by the relationship between the
spectral response displacement and the response accelera-
Building Inventory tion. The maximum velocity response at Ermita reaches
almost 5 m/s, while the response at Quezon is less than 1 m/
Distribution and Amount
of Building Damage s. This is because that the ground motion at Ermita is
strongly amplified due to the thick soft soil deposits in the
Fig. 3. Flow of building damage estimation. coastal lowland area.
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4km
0.5km
As1
16.6km As2
13.6km
3.1km
Bg2 Bg1
41km
Starting point of rupture
North N200E
Strike (deg.)
South N190E
Dip Angle (deg.) 90
Fault area (km × km) 41 × 16.6
Asperity Area As1 7×6
(km × km) As2 10 × 10
Moment Magnitude (Mw) 6.7
Total 1.68 × 1026
M0(dyne ·cm) As1 3.01 × 1025
As2 9.49 × 1025
As1 1.6
As2 2.3
Average Slip (m)
Bg1 0.3
Bg2 0.4
Fig. 4. (a) Fault model of scenario earthquake. As1, 2 and Bg1, 2 show areas of asperities and backgrounds, respectively. (b) Fault parameters. (c)
Distribution of peak ground velocity due to the scenario earthquake.
Clay
cial areas such as Manila, Makati, Quezon and Marikina.
Sand
Gravel
The locations of the newly constructed buildings were
0.5 0.2 extracted from the difference between the IKONOS images
h and the existing inventory data. The number of stories
Clay
Sand
was estimated for each building using the shadow lengths
Gravel of the buildings obliquely observed from the satellite. The
inventory for the low-rise buildings was updated from the
0 0 land cover classification map derived from the multi-
10−6 10−5 10−4 10−3 10−2 temporal Landsat images [21]. The detail of the analysis
Shear Strain, γ for the updating is described in the authors’ previous
study [20].
Fig. 5. Relationships between shear modulus ratio, damping factor and
shear strain proposed by Imazu and Fukutake [18]. Fig. 7 shows the updated building distribution with a
500 m mesh system. The total number of buildings in the
updated inventory was estimated at about 1.29 million.
3.3. Building inventory According to the recent national census in 2000 [6], the
total number of buildings in Metro Manila is approxi-
In Metro Manila, there had been the building inventory mately 1.32 million. The updated number of the buildings
data digitized from 1/10,000 scale topographic maps edited shows good agreement with the census data. Due to the
in 1989 [19]. The authors have updated the inventory data updating, the number of buildings is increased by about
using the satellite remote sensing data [20]. In the inventory 40% over the 15-year period. As shown in Fig. 7, the
data, the attribute for number of stories, which mainly buildings are densely concentrated in the western coastal
controls the vibration period during ground shaking, is area such as Manila. A lot of the buildings are distributed
included for each building. The inventory for the mid-rise also in the northern, southern and eastern areas with the
and high-rise buildings was updated using the high- expansion of the urbanized areas as shown in Fig. 1.
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10 10
Ermita Quezon
0.1 0.1
NS NS
EW EW
0.01 0.01
0.1 1 10 0.1 1 10
Period (s) Period (s)
30 30
Ermita Quezon
20 20
SA (m/s/s)
SA (m/s/s)
10 10
NS NS
EW EW
0 0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8
SD (m) SD (m)
Fig. 6. Five percent damped velocity response spectra and demand curves at Ermita and Quezon.
4 4
C1L (Sub-Type1) C1L (Sub-Type1)
: Ave. : Ave.
3 3
: Ave. ± σ : Ave. ± σ
2 2
λ
1 1
0 0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
EC EC
Fig. 8. Comparison of EC factors between first and second round. (a) First round. (b) Second round.
Table 2
Data for capacity curves and fragility curves derived by the Delphi method
CHB 1 0.002 3.82 0.010 5.00 0.005 0.007 0.018 0.045 0.7
2 0.002 4.02 0.007 5.98 0.005 0.007 0.018 0.045 0.7
3 0.002 4.12 0.007 5.98 0.005 0.007 0.018 0.045 0.7
C1L 1 0.008 2.94 0.058 4.10 0.021 0.037 0.10 0.26 0.5
2 0.005 2.84 0.018 4.31 0.019 0.032 0.088 0.23 0.5
3 0.005 3.04 0.014 4.21 0.019 0.030 0.075 0.19 0.5
C1M 1 0.020 1.96 0.150 2.74 0.035 0.061 0.17 0.42 0.5
2 0.021 2.74 0.083 3.92 0.035 0.061 0.17 0.42 0.6
3 0.019 2.74 0.067 4.21 0.035 0.057 0.14 0.35 0.6
C1H 1 0.064 1.57 0.54 2.01 0.054 0.11 0.32 0.86 0.4
2 0.10 2.84 0.44 4.21 0.054 0.11 0.32 0.86 0.6
3 0.10 3.14 0.36 4.70 0.054 0.093 0.25 0.64 0.7
C2H 1 0.060 1.37 0.40 1.86 0.038 0.094 0.28 0.75 0.4
2 0.093 2.45 0.34 3.72 0.038 0.094 0.28 0.75 0.6
3 0.08 2.25 0.24 3.43 0.038 0.079 0.22 0.56 0.5
C2V 1 0.13 0.98 0.75 1.57 0.075 0.19 0.56 1.5 0.4
2 0.23 2.45 0.83 3.72 0.075 0.19 0.56 1.5 0.6
C2E 1 0.21 0.98 1.40 1.47 0.11 0.28 0.54 2.2 0.4
2 0.38 2.45 1.30 3.33 0.11 0.28 0.84 2.25 0.6
C2S 1 0.39 1.18 2.80 1.57 0.17 0.43 1.29 3.4 0.6
DY: displacement at yield point (m), DU: displacement at ultimate point (m), AY: acceleration at yield point (m/s/s), AU: acceleration at ultimate
point (m/s/s).
however, EC factors of some respondents show higher than the yield and ultimate points for each building category are
0.15. It indicates that the number of respondents who determined from the median values of the responses in the
evaluate their certainty level in the second round higher second round survey. Fig. 8 illustrates the derived capacity
than in the first round is increased. Besides, the standard curves of the building types highlighted in bold face type in
deviation in the second round is declined to about 0.3 while Table 1. Table 2 shows the spectral displacements and
that in the first round is about 0.5. It means that the accelerations at yield and ultimate points for all the
responses for the parameter are converged with approxi- capacity curves derived in this study.
mately 1.5 by the opinion feedback. Similar convergence is Fragility curve is a probability function of being in, or
also observed in other parameters. The spectral values at exceeding, a damage state for a given spectral displacement.
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The fragility curve is developed from the result of the 4.3. Comparison with pushover analysis
second round survey based on following equation:
# ! "$ In order to validate the capacities derived from the
1 Sd Delphi method, they are compared with result of the
P½dsjS d # ¼ F ln , (2)
bc S̄d;ds pushover analysis [32] for typical buildings in Metro
Manila. Analytical values for the capacity of a structure
where P[ds|Sd] is the probability of a particular damage can be obtained from the pushover analysis. The pushover
state, ds (slight, moderate, extensive and complete), at the analysis is applied to two-story RC building (C1L Sub-
given spectral displacement, Sd. S̄ d;ds and bc are the median type 1) and 10-story RC building (C1H Sub-type 3). Fig. 10
value and its standard deviation of spectral displacement at illustrates the frame geometry of the two-story and
which the building reaches the damage state. F is the 10-story building. The two-story and the 10-story buildings
standard normal cumulative distribution function. represent a typical school and residential building, respec-
Here, S̄d;ds is expressed as multiplication of drift ratio tively.
and building height. Since the drift ratio at a damage In the pushover analysis, the sizes and the reinforce-
state of buildings in Metro Manila is poorly examined, ments of the members of the frame are determined based
the drift ratio of the nearest building type in HAZUS is on the drawings of the buildings. The material models such
used in this study considering the structural type, building as shear-strain relationships for concrete and reinforcement
height and design level [31]. bc is expressed as square root steel are defined basically based on the design practice in
of sum of squares of the standard deviations derived the Philippines [33,34]. The distributions of lateral loading
from all the answers in the second round survey. Fig. 9 assumed in the analysis are based on fundamental mode
illustrates the constructed fragility curves of the low-rise shape of the frames.
building (CHB and C1L), the mid-rise building (C1M) and Fig. 11 shows the building capacity curves derived from
the high-rise building (C1H). Table 2 also shows the the pushover analysis with the capacity curves derived from
displacements at the damage states and bc for all the the Delphi method. For the C1L building, the capacity
building categories. displacement by the Delphi method is smaller than that by
10 10 10
CHB (Sub-Type3) C1M (Sub-Type3) C2V (Sub-Type1)
C1L (Sub-Type3) C1H (Sub-Type2) C2E (Sub-Type1)
C2S (Sub-Type1)
SA (m/s/s)
SA (m/s/s)
SA (m/s/s)
5 5 5
Fig. 9. Building capacity curves derived from the Delphi method. Low-rise, Mid- and high-rise and high-rise.
0.8
Damage Ratio
0.6
0.4
0.2
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0 0.1 0.2 0.3
SD (m) SD (m) SD (m) SD (m)
Fig. 10. Fragility curves derived from the Delphi method. CHB: Sub-Type3, C1L: Sub-Type3, C1M: Sub-Type3 and C1H: Sub-Type2.
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the pushover analysis, and the capacity accelerations however, is likely stronger than the result of this analysis
(strengths) are comparable or smaller. Here, the capacity because non-structural elements such as partition walls
of C1L building by the Delphi method would represent provide additional strength in actual high-rise building. It
standard residential/commercial buildings because the indicates that the capacity curves of actual building would
number of residential/commercial low-rise buildings is correspond better with the curves by the Delphi method.
predominant in the urban area. As described before, Although the number of the examined cases is limited, the
the capacity by the pushover analysis represents a typical capacity curves derived by the Delphi method are
school building. The difference between the seismic consistent with those by the pushover analysis.
capacities is caused because public buildings such as school The capacity curves derived by the Delphi method are
generally would have higher potential to resist for seismic compared also with result of static lateral loading experi-
loading than residential/commercial buildings. ment for existing buildings in Metro Manila [35]. Accord-
For the C1H building, on the contrary, the capacity ing to the force–displacement curve obtained from the
accelerations by the Delphi method are little higher than experiment for an existing two-story CHB building,
those by the pushover analysis. Only the lateral load the displacements at the yield and ultimate points were
bearing elements such as columns and beams are modeled approximately 0.004 and 0.006 m, respectively. As shown
in the pushover analysis. The actual high-rise building, in Fig. 12 and Table 2, the displacements at the yield and
ultimate points of the CHB building are estimated at about
0.002 and 0.007–0.01 m, respectively. The capacity of the
CHB building derived from the Delphi method shows good
agreement with that of the actual building.
8 8
6 6
SA (m/s/s)
SA (m/s/s)
4 4
2 2
Fig. 12. Comparison of capacity curves derived from the push-over analysis and the Delphi method. (a) C1L Building. (b) C1H Building.
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the structural type and the design vintage of each building the ratios between the number of CHB and that of C1L in
are not included in the inventory data. each region are approximately estimated at 2:1, 1:2 or 0:3
The building population in Metro Manila has been as shown in the table.
investigated by the questionnaires for the building officials As shown in Fig. 1, the urbanized areas had covered
and the local government engineers [22]. In the survey, the approximately 60% of Metro Manila by 1975 including
number of buildings for each building type in each city/ major residential and commercial zones. It indicates that
municipality was approximately estimated by the building Sub-type 3 design vintage is predominant for the low-rise
officials and engineers. Based on the survey, the relation- and mid-rise buildings. Therefore, Sub-type 3 is applied for
ship between the percentages of CHB and C1L buildings in CHB, C1L and C1M buildings in the damage estimation.
each city/municipality is broadly classified into three Since most of the high-rise buildings would be rather newer
categories as shown in Table 3. In the region A such as than the low-rise and mid-rise buildings, the Sub-type 2 is
Caloocan, Valenzuela and so on, the number of CHB is adopted for C1H buildings in the estimation.
dominant compared with that of C1L. On the contrary, the
number of C1L is dominant in the region B such as 5.2. Results of building damage estimation
Marikina, Makati. In the region C, almost all the low-rise
buildings consist of C1L. Based on the result of the survey, In order to examine effects of the region-specific building
performance, the damage estimation of this study is
Table 3 compared against that with capacity curves of nearest
Approximately estimated ratio of number of CHB buildings and that of building types in HAZUS. To compare with the damage of
C1L buildings in each city/municipality
CHB buildings, URML buildings in HAZUS is used
Region City/municipality Ratio because the structural type almost corresponds with CHB.
Low-code is adopted for URML, C1L and C1M buildings
CHB C1L
in HAZUS because Sub-type 3 buildings in Metro Manila
A Caloocan, Valenzuela, Quezon, 2 1 would not be fully engineered. Moderate-code is applied to
Navotas, San Juan, Mandaluyong, C1H buildings in HAZUS since Sub-type 2 C1H buildings
Manila, Pasig, Pasay, Pateros, would have a certain level of resistance for seismic loading.
Paranaque, Muntinlupa
Fig. 13 shows the comparison of the capacity curves
B Marikina, Makati, Taguig, Las Pinas 1 2
C Malabon 0 3 derived from the Delphi method and the curves of HAZUS
used in the damage estimation. The yield and ultimate
10
CHB (Sub-Type3) C1L (Sub-Type3)
URML (Low-code) C1L (Low-code)
SA (m/s/s)
10
C1M (Sub-Type3) C1H (Sub-Type2)
C1M (Low-code) C1H (Moderate-code)
SA (m/s/s)
Fig. 13. Comparison of capacity curves by the Delphi method and HAZUS used in the damage estimation. Low-rise, low-rise, mid-rise and high-rise.
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Fig. 14. Building distribution and distribution of damaged buildings. (a) Building distribution. (b) Extensive or complete damage (with capacity curves of
this study). (c) Extensive or complete damage (with capacity curves of HAZUS). (d) Building distribution. (e) Extensive or complete damage (with capacity
curves of this study). (f) Extensive or complete damage (with capacity curves of HAZUS). (g) Building distribution. (h) Moderate damage (with capacity
curves of this study). (i) Moderate damage (with capacity curves of HAZUS).
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Table 4
Comparison of number of damaged buildings
Building type Damage state (a) Estimation with capacity curves of this (b) Estimation with capacity curves of
study HAZUS
strengths (accelerations) by the Delphi method are higher the severe damage not only in the soft soil area but also in
than those of HAZUS in all the types. On the other hand, the stiff soil area such as the central plateau. This trend is
the displacement of the ultimate point by the Delphi also observed in the damage distribution of the mid-rise
method show smaller than those of HAZUS except for the buildings as illustrated in Fig. 14(e) and (f).
C1H building, indicating the ductility of the buildings in Most of the high-rise buildings would suffer moderate
Metro Manila is lower than that in the US. damage but not severe damage. One of the reasons is the
Fig. 14 shows the distribution of the damaged buildings spectral characteristic of the ground motion. The magni-
due to the scenario earthquake based on the capacity tude of the scenario earthquake Mw 6.7 is not large enough
curves developed in this study and those of HAZUS. to generate a strong ground motion with long period more
Fig. 14(a), (d) and (g) shows the distributions of the low- than several seconds, which contributes to the response of
rise, mid-rise and high-rise buildings in the inventory data, higher buildings. As shown in Fig. 14(h) and (i), the
respectively. Fig. 14(b) and (c) shows the distribution of significant difference between the distributions of the
the completely or extensively damaged low-rise buildings. moderately damaged high-rise buildings is not observed
Fig. 14(e) and (f) shows the distribution of the completely in the estimations. As shown in Table 4, the number of the
or extensively damaged mid-rise buildings. Fig. 14(h) completely or extensively damaged buildings in the
and (i) shows the distribution of the moderately damaged estimation with the capacity curves of HAZUS is larger
high-rise buildings. Table 4 shows the number of the than that in this study since the capacity strength in
damaged buildings and the damage ratio at each damage HAZUS is rather small.
state.
The damage distribution of the low-rise buildings in this 6. Conclusions
study is significantly different from that with the capacity
curves of HAZUS. In this study, the damage is concen- The seismic performance of the buildings in Metro
trated only in the soft soil areas such as the coastal lowland Manila, Philippines is evaluated by integrating the local
and the Marikina valley. In the estimation with the experts’ judgments for the building damage estimation.
capacity curves of HAZUS, on the contrary, the severe First, the buildings are classified into 20 categories
damage is distributed to the whole area of Metro Manila. according to the structural type, the number of stories
According to the number of damaged buildings shown in and the design vintage. The questionnaire is applied to the
Table 4, the number of damaged buildings in this study local experts in Metro Manila to integrate the opinions of
is larger than that in the other estimation. As shown in the experts by the Delphi method. The building capacity
Fig. 13, the low strength of the capacity in HAZUS causes curve and the fragility curve for each building category are
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