Garage On Web

Please enter the number of levels designed:
Note: No more than 8 permitted, see text
Click F9 and go to respective sheets to see results.

Note: the results are in British Pound; if we take the results in US Dollar, we can roughly use the exchange rate of 2
The case deals with a multi-level car park for a commercial center in a region that is growing as population expands
that:
The deterministic point forecast is that demand on opening day is for 750 spaces, and rises exponentially at the ra
decade;
Average annual revenue for each space used is $10,000, and the average annual operating cost for each space a
than the spaces used) is $2,000;
The lease of the land costs $3.6 Million annually;
The construction will cost $16,000 per space for pre-cast construction, with a 10% increase for every level above t
The site is large enough to accommodate 200 cars per level; and
The discount rate is taken to be 12%.
Land leasing cost ($1,800,000/year) is paid upfront at the beginning of each year. No payment is made at the end
Additionally, economic analysis needs to recognize that actual demand is uncertain, given the long time horizon. T
future demand could be 50% off the projection, either way, and that the annual volatility for growth is 15% of the lon
Flexibility with expansion options: The owners can design stronger footings and columns to the original building so
additional levels of parking easily, as was the case for the Bluewater development. In this particular example, this re
as 5% of the total initial construction cost. [This simple assumption is adequate for the illustrative purposes of this e
represent the complexity of a full cost model of the construction of multi-level car parks.]
The case assumes that no more than 8 levels will be allowed. This limitation is built into the Expansion Option work
Value of Option: The value of the option is taken to be the difference between the mean NPV of the flexible garage
(Expansion option tab, which assumes zero cost for acquiring this flexibility ) and the mean NPV of the inflexible ga
expanded (Randomized NPV tab). Once designers have this information, they may compare this to the cost of acqu
and decide how much they are willing to pay for it. [This process is similar to that used to calculate the value of a fin
as the value of information.] Logically, designers should acquire the flexibility if its cost is less than the value of the
the model.
It follows from the preceding paragraph that the net extra profit generated by the flexibility is the difference in mean
flexible and inflexible garages, minus the cost of acquiring the flexibility.
y use the exchange rate of 2 Dollars/Pound.
owing as population expands. The basic data are
d rises exponentially at the rate of 750 spaces per
erating cost for each space available (often more
crease for every level above the ground level;

payment is made at the end of the last year.
ven the long time horizon. The case assumes that

y for growth is 15% of the long-term average.
mns to the original building so that they can add

his particular example, this real cost is assessed
illustrative purposes of this example. It does not
o the Expansion Option worksheets
n NPV of the flexible garage that can be expanded

mean NPV of the inflexible garage that cannot be
mpare this to the cost of acquiring the flexibility
to calculate the value of a financial option, as well
is less than the value of the option projected by
lity is the difference in mean NPV between the
NPV Model for the Parking Garage
Average annual revenue

Average operating costs
Land lease and other fixed costs
Capacity cost
Capacity limit
Capacity
Time horizon
Discount rate
Year
Demand
Capacity
Revenue
Operating costs
Land leasing and fixed costs
Cashflow
DCF
Present value of cashflow
Capacity cost for up to two levels
Capacity costs for levels above 2
Net present value
750 spaces
750 spaces
250 spaces
5,000 per space used
1,000 per space available
1,800,000 p.a.
8,000 per space
10% growth per level for every level above 2
200 cars per level
6 levels
Note: No more than 8
15 years
12%
0
0
0
0
1,800,000
0
1
750
1200
3,750,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
750,000
669,643
2
893
1200
4,465,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
1,465,000
1,167,889
3
1015
1200
5,075,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
2,075,000
1,476,944
4
1120
1200
5,600,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
2,600,000
1,652,347
16,287,368
3,200,000
8,168,160
3,119,208
1800
1600
Demand (spaces)
Demand projections
Demand in year 1
Additional demand by year 10
Additional demand after year 10
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1
Dynamic demand model:

demand(t) = final demand-alpha*exp(-beta t)
find alpha, beta so that demand (0), demand(10) are as projected
alpha
1000
beta
0.1540327
5
1210
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,702,281
6
1287
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,519,893
7
1353
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,357,048
8
1410
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,211,650
9
1458
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,081,830
Demand Projection
11
Time (years)
13
15
17
19
10
1500
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
965,920
11
1536
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
862,428
12
1566
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
770,025
13
1593
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
687,523
14
1615
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
613,859
15
1634
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
548,089
16
1651
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
489,365
17
1665
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
436,933
18
1677
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
390,119
19
20
1688
1696
1200
1200
6,000,000 6,000,000
1,200,000 1,200,000
1,800,000
0
3,000,000 4,800,000
348,320 497,600
Randomized NPV Model for the Parking Garage

Projected demand in year 1
Realised demand in year 0
Realised additional demand by year 10
Realised additional demand after year 10
750
1058 spaces
750
1007 spaces
500
374 spaces
2400
2200
2000

Land leasing costs
Capacity cost
Capacity limit
Capacity
Time horizon
Discount rate
Year
Demand projection
Demand growth projection
Realised demand growth
Realised demand
Capacity
Revenue
Operating costs
Land leasing costs
Cashflow
DCF
Net present value
1800
50%
50%
50%
15%
Demand (spaces)
UNCERTAINTY ASSUMPTIONS
Realised demand in yr 1 within
Annual volatility of demand growth
of demand projection
of projection
points of growth projection

1,800,000 p.a.
8,000 per space
200 cars per level
6 levels
15 years
12%
0
0
0
0
1,800,000
0
19,798,665
3,200,000
8,168,160
6,630,505
1
1,058
1,058
1200
5,290,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
2,290,000
2,044,643
Note: No more than 8

levels permitted
2
1,245
18%
25%
1,326
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
2,391,582
3
1,406
13%
25%
1,550
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
2,135,341
4
1,546
10%
6%
1,489
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,906,554
1600
1400
1200
1000
Demand
alpha
1381
beta
0.1451453
2400
2200
2000
Demand (spaces)
1800
1600
1400
Demand projection
1200
Demand scenario
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1
11
13
15
17
19
Time (years)
5
1,666
8%
14%
1,767
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,702,281
6
1,771
6%
4%
1,736
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,519,893
7
1,861
5%
-3%
1,715
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,357,048
8
1,939
4%
1%
1,879
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,211,650
9
2,007
3%
-3%
1,889
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
1,081,830
10
2,065
3%
1%
2,032
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
965,920
11
2,116
2%
3%
2,122
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
862,428
12
2,159
2%
-11%
1,884
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
770,025
13
2,197
2%
14%
2,462
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
687,523
14
2,230
1%
10%
2,421
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
613,859
15
2,258
1%
1%
2,260
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
548,089
16
2,282
1%
-7%
2,094
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
489,365
17
2,304
1%
-14%
1,964
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
436,933
18
2,322
1%
5%
2,418
1200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
3,000,000
390,119
19
20
2,338
2,351
1%
1%
6%
4%
2,456
2,433
1200
1200
6,000,000 6,000,000
1,200,000 1,200,000
1,800,000
0
3,000,000 4,800,000
348,320 497,600
Simulation - Randomized NPV Model for the Parking Garage
1) link to random cell

2) choose number of bins
6,630,505 (must change if you hit F9)

49 (maximum 49)
Average
Standard deviation
Average between
1,530,966
4,368,747
1,433,278
and
1,628,654
with 95% confidence
Histogram
8.0%
Frequency
7.0%
6.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
1.0%
Sample size
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
5,903,665
5,082,907
4,262,150
3,441,392
2,620,634
1,799,877
979,119
158,361
-662,396
-1,483,154
-2,303,911
Bin values
2000
Sample
-3,124,669
-3,945,427
-4,766,184
-5,586,942
-6,407,700
-7,228,457
-8,049,215
-8,869,973
-9,690,730
-10,511,488
-11,332,246
-12,153,003
-12,973,761
0.0%
6630504.897
3636925.78
3387174.041
2352170.779
-3722053.108
3213641.299
-6216067.132
-3935933.14
3981504.925
Maximum
Minimum
Sort
6929612
-1.3E+07
Cumulative distribution
Lower bound Counting
-13178950
1
-12768572
1
-12358193
3
-11947814
5
-11537435
10
-11127056
12
-10716677
19
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
5235100.686
-107721.6303
4003398.787
-1946509.256
4072400.869
325855.1205
3693132.233
4455606.87
-3399028.655
5609788.382
535004.2675
2147879.215
-2906656.251
6617112.04
764634.6542
4284397.466
5744548.758
-6497485.583
-4048539.377
-4038169.254
6715326.326
1444661.495
2302147.676
-8198376.686
6528140.05
6429612.04
6124665.937
3546098.338
2221282.532
4544830.557
2869341.511
5771191.909
6911754.897
4354469.288
-2614792.006
1989680.929
4320558.469
4276138.782
3951654.579
-4060295.325
6439260.423
3629777.94
-3160686.012
5470560.174
383605.9673
6400677.314
3138639.177
6853719.183
4886173.223
4505908.882
4039210.136
-706276.2242
-10306299
-9895919.7
-9485540.9
-9075162.1
-8664783.3
-8254404.4
-7844025.6
-7433646.8
-7023268
-6612889.1
-6202510.3
-5792131.5
-5381752.7
-4971373.9
-4560995
-4150616.2
-3740237.4
-3329858.6
-2919479.7
-2509100.9
-2098722.1
-1688343.3
-1277964.4
-867585.61
-457206.79
-46827.965
363550.859
773929.683
1184308.51
1594687.33
2005066.15
2415444.98
2825823.8
3236202.63
3646581.45
4056960.27
4467339.1
4877717.92
5288096.74
5698475.57
6108854.39
6519233.22
6929612.04
25
31
40
49
51
60
75
82
95
110
137
150
173
193
212
235
267
305
336
374
407
448
503
557
615
659
700
758
817
872
926
991
1043
1105
1175
1258
1339
1412
1521
1616
1719
1847
1998
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
2720155.296
1469159.389
6190114.818
-347880.3671
5519287.138
3180336.498
2527756.994
-2130590.977
4506082.977
6367441.02
2833536.229
4760933.841
-2743510.326
2364082.438
-717455.1565
6737647.754
6684076.326
3281271.38
4579366.585
6648362.04
5448391.531
-1559216.015
5569605.435
989159.8393
5075220.537
3272428.704
-5435501.163
2347919.087
910067.3184
2891339.619
4986137.776
5976874.375
1697478.856
-1739415.947
6368525.046
6630504.897
2194605.808
4141035.288
650526.9366
1857785.324
6639433.468
-5727509.7
-5307359.129
5077100.318
5586549.51
-5308060.244
-5342150.733
4964584.071
3619671.729
4921216.618
6809076.326
3710648.372
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
-676599.4379
1954198.273
6458992.28
-3983247.47
5142395.771
-10054147.17
-3209294.063
1965631.859
4775188.187
-1773485.014
-1081659.11
6469790.611
3742076.43
6104224.607
4265681.09
-4915109.592
363914.4744
-10204388.03
1032175.285
1966407.877
2895938.359
-415376.4207
5940639.885
6087453.394
-1331565.213
2796239.296
4165959.385
-1106295.415
-220716.8424
-3621346.412
401840.7594
-2327974.988
-6454542.381
5986647.594
-4867018.341
-6296492.535
5695817.527
1516985.26
715027.6222
-744213.6613
4074386.779
3119048.484
3734241.232
-2288228.033
-8376865.286
6153285.839
4745061.17
-1295818.385
4937252.074
6397559.933
-421307.179
5872983.744
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
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191
192
193
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195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
961917.6171
6623620.145
2524348.706
4380121.121
-719125.1016
2814043.911
3690502.705
2807492.507
2049822.54
5438538.397
-7934205.329
359384.7867
-9757425.455
-4841583.489
-1694307.716
2227778.769
2764439.631
1593569.362
6889433.468
6013760.463
-10704620.37
1701429.772
3693493.093
-1083667.365
-2149953.812
118714.9843
327645.323
3265501.891
1515954.143
-666808.9984
-2034831.177
-4912245.396
-434538.4257
-2281025.962
-8540263.467
-7481161.866
3308227.042
-3051817.651
6439995.203
6394028.212
-6247671.645
29352.70083
1139322.967
4925891.842
-4531329.825
6300069.101
5534927.248
5091600.34
749949.7791
1601324.044
4801833.056
-130223.1687
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
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250
251
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253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
3014768.616
211914.384
5239787.839
-3378438.489
-960372.1554
6658683.426
6280597.698
4916331.455
-83278.36547
3074465.797
1764726.739
4447619.988
1746604.368
2846357.006
5113249.233
3253097.434
3833691.66
4834733.908
-4230583.785
-2670991.681
1378961.208
-3793204.315
2131452.782
6652826.326
6871576.326
3484017.69
3397528.804
6072201.563
1854843.489
4507240.863
1386668.193
4192109.747
-1492256.322
2751032.152
6862647.754
1845110.083
6647831.712
-3351172.17
5902180.79
4189061.738
4673192.368
3015295.624
937176.9395
796743.8811
-2051735.867
6877801.354
-2624577.951
-12293608.98
-2412728.399
4724458.336
1804468.368
4385551.909
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
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283
284
285
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305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
-6738713.632
-5039045.886
4852996.009
-1165921.493
5438362.719
6255713.089
4978335.82
-431027.0677
5149408.506
-1689638.776
6704622.783
6404493.016
6813540.611
1660505.618
2746190.766
-1168344.843
6550147.754
5410698.961
6001245.625
-2411489.468
-3722362.553
3050607.627
5740704.545
546621.5831
3777886.509
6615354.406
2473248.274
-206380.8914
2082628.37
5897131.988
-1595732.794
2400312.191
-3225733.741
4774805.991
803315.0364
-2267350.871
5018024.957
2866170.475
477927.9534
-6692879.148
-12124891.35
633185.7945
-9177860.398
3172882.877
-1227978.868
-3664210.621
5039149.393
-809880.0731
-4250321.273
-7354003.08
-6552204.331
4694300.001
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
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357
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359
360
361
362
363
364
365
366
367
368
369
370
371
372
6710862.04
993585.5557
4952948.008
3544634.628
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-6678571.463
-1332401.475
4747043.596
1514021.713
747121.1317
3587496.396
4304904.497
6724254.897
-201910.998
-2628859.888
-2408355.869
-1375286.915
643673.2042
-2607696.024
257264.0944
-1305906.042
5628878.98
6697186.699
-3642290.07
2911344.932
1752925.74
293137.8271
1972679.709
6666219.183
4065142.407
1829
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
1835
1836
1837
1838
1839
1840
1841
1842
1843
1844
1845
1846
1847
1848
1849
1850
1851
1852
1853
1854
1855
1856
1857
1858
1859
1860
1861
1862
1863
1864
1865
1866
1867
1868
1869
1870
1871
1872
1873
1874
1875
1876
1877
1878
1879
1880
-7547835.629
-2222352.759
5235247.58
4970364.235
-6024700.575
-10949616.16
6777826.326
4738981.583
5780806.12
6356703.854
6791219.183
6737647.754
6237647.754
842983.5083
-6860302.853
1068852.854
-1746542.254
5429632.876
3765914.355
6728719.183
-258713.8987
-6551095.201
-539437.7617
797884.6749
-3283858.345
-4053117.877
2558950.292
-760514.1585
6376203.966
6399004.655
6758538.008
2244388.361
-11569762.32
4162388.118
73541.82387
5842213.911
-4754619.444
3889196.967
-3160724.719
3146822.23
4904105.066
-1176806.935
3815951.956
6818004.897
-1646460.062
5334534.561
-5444708.042
5364861.968
4849919.984
-7962045.897
5414838.77
-655330.3322
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
1886
1887
1888
1889
1890
1891
1892
1893
1894
1895
1896
1897
1898
1899
1900
1901
1902
1903
1904
1905
1906
1907
1908
1909
1910
1911
1912
1913
1914
1915
1916
1917
1918
1919
1920
1921
1922
1923
1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
948291.1039
6328503.637
-8567302.893
860665.8497
4412916.722
-585586.3306
1889584.269
-859100.2622
-610383.2462
4915037.947
-1572909.524
-1889986.136
1435109.201
-9311757.807
-6125920.22
2789861.203
909224.3066
751539.5357
-7168878.85
-1130238.068
4165773.854
3753799.341
-2964981.318
4669619.974
4344742.645
-5042145.225
-1351404.984
913205.6481
-6100717.183
5299174.319
6363248.137
3373763.814
3785380.842
-4944209.471
1726752.184
2561412.938
2174351.349
2968500.262
-4844397.506
6614356.731
3508954.595
3257760.712
4417833.296
4318207.033
5429997.776
2175234.79
5839807.189
-487662.3022
6168337.496
3843779.431
6509969.183
2538124.939
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
5034843.273
6134818.455
5764556.087
-2006751.264
6075183.506
6581397.754
1770875.853
-6914594.927
4914371.322
4225108.427
5180523.366
812641.7506
-2007597
-1681089.218
-8255104.18
3679522.079
6603719.183
6322127.54
-285906.8675
-3403326.783
4641440.681
-6597849.253
-1063593.405
199369.3789
-2937162.394
-3120694.028
6809076.326
-1854909.788
-1100679.039
2089605.595
1863023.434
-2469663.562
4906834.566
5209488.647
6498733.622
6509969.183
3185523.51
-600362.2907
3284208.34
-5330262.015
-817414.7164
6297192.897
5097600.576
2480681.027
1380557.362
6639433.468
5765805.692
-612050.5904
3329572.784
-2877454.368
6594790.611
3024821.674
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
3646841.965
6733183.468
4528957.596
4969054.884
4819917.596
4589226.074
6884969.183
5528709.287
-3437156.406
-1798625.138
4142839.057
5751500.935
5105476.317
5413542.681
6613947.264
3104759.441
This worksheet generates a historgram and a cumulative distribution function for a random variable
generated in the yellow cell. This can be a reference to a cell, e.g. profits, in another worksheet.
The sample size is fixed at 2000. The number of bins for the histogram is variable between 1 and 49.
Every time you press F9 a new sample of 2000 numbers is drawn and the histogram and cumulative
distribution functions are updated
Probability that realised value is less than target

value
6,724,423
5,903,665
Cumulative distribution function
cdf
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.3%
0.5%
0.6%
1.0%
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
Target value
Bin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Histogram
Bin label Counting Frequency
-1.3E+07
2
0.1%
-1.3E+07
2
0.1%
-1.2E+07
2
0.1%
-1.2E+07
5
0.3%
-1.1E+07
2
0.1%
-1.1E+07
7
0.4%
-1.1E+07
6
0.3%
5,000,000
1.3%
1.6%
2.0%
2.5%
2.6%
3.0%
3.8%
4.1%
4.8%
5.5%
6.9%
7.5%
8.7%
9.7%
10.6%
11.8%
13.4%
15.3%
16.8%
18.7%
20.4%
22.4%
25.2%
27.9%
30.8%
33.0%
35.0%
37.9%
40.9%
43.6%
46.3%
49.6%
52.2%
55.3%
58.8%
62.9%
67.0%
70.6%
76.1%
80.8%
86.0%
92.4%
99.9%
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-1E+07
-9690730
-9280352
-8869973
-8459594
-8049215
-7638836
-7228457
-6818079
-6407700
-5997321
-5586942
-5176563
-4766184
-4355806
-3945427
-3535048
-3124669
-2714290
-2303911
-1893533
-1483154
-1072775
-662396
-252017
158361.4
568740.3
979119.1
1389498
1799877
2210256
2620634
3031013
3441392
3851771
4262150
4672529
5082907
5493286
5903665
6314044
6724423
3464806
6
9
9
2
9
15
7
13
15
27
13
23
20
19
23
32
38
31
38
33
41
55
54
58
44
41
58
59
55
54
65
52
62
70
83
81
73
109
95
103
128
151
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.1%
0.5%
0.8%
0.4%
0.7%
0.8%
1.4%
0.7%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
1.2%
1.6%
1.9%
1.6%
1.9%
1.7%
2.1%
2.8%
2.7%
2.9%
2.2%
2.1%
2.9%
3.0%
2.8%
2.7%
3.3%
2.6%
3.1%
3.5%
4.2%
4.1%
3.7%
5.5%
4.8%
5.2%
6.4%
7.6%
a random variable
her worksheet.
between 1 and 49.
am and cumulative
10,000,000
NPV Model with Expansion Option for the Parking Garage

Projected demand in year 1
Realised demand in year 0
Realised additional demand by year 10
Realised additional demand after year 10
750
929 spaces
750
1057 spaces
250
161 spaces
UNCERTAINTY ASSUMPTIONS
Realised demand in yr 1 within
Annual volatility of demand growth
50%
50%
50%
15%

Land leasing costs
of projection
points of growth projection

1,800,000 p.a.
Capacity cost
8,000 per space

Maximum number of levels

Capacity limit
Capacity
8
200 cars per level
6 levels
Time horizon
Discount rate
15 years
12%
Year
Realised demand
Capacity
Expansion?
Build extra capacity
Revenue
Operating costs
Land leasing costs
Expansion cost
Cashflow
DCF
Net present value
0
0
1
1,058
1200
2
1,326
1200
0
0
0
0 5,290,000 6,000,000
0 1,200,000 1,200,000
1,800,000 1,800,000 1,800,000
0
0 2,290,000 3,000,000
2,044,643 2,391,582
22,709,202
3,200,000
8,168,160
9,541,042
Expansion rule Expand by
3
1,550
1200
expand
200
6,000,000
1,200,000
1,800,000
2,576,816
423,184
301,214
levels if past two years were at full capacity
Demand
alpha
1218
beta
0.22484012
2400
2200
2000
Demand (spaces)
1800
1600
1400
Demand projection
1200
Demand scenario
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1
11
13
15
17
19
Time (years)
4
1,489
1400
expand
200
7,000,000
1,400,000
1,800,000
2,834,498
965,502
613,594
wo years were at full capacity
5
1,767
1600
6
1,736
1600
7
1,715
1600
8
1,879
1600
9
1,889
1600
10
2,032
1600
11
2,122
1600
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
2,610,164
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
2,330,503
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
2,080,806
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
1,857,863
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
1,658,806
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
1,481,077
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
1,322,390
12
1,884
1600
13
2,462
1600
14
2,421
1600
15
2,260
1600
16
2,094
1600
17
1,964
1600
18
2,418
1600
19
2,456
1600
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
1,180,705
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
1,054,201
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
941,251
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
840,403
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
750,360
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
669,964
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
598,182
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
0
4,600,000
534,091
20
2,433
1600
0
8,000,000
1,600,000
0
0
6,400,000
663,467
Simulation - NPV Model with Expansion Option for the Parking Garage
1) link to random cell

2) choose number of bins
9,541,042 (must change if you hit F9)

49 (maximum 49)
Average
Standard deviation
Average between
Real option value
Real option cost
Acquire the option?
1,999,329
5,093,537
1,885,409
468,363
568,408
No
and
2,113,248
with 95% confidence
Histogram
4.5%
Frequency
4.0%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
Sample size
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
8,684,055
7,777,037
6,870,019
5,963,001
5,055,983
4,148,965
3,241,946
2,334,928
1,427,910
520,892
-386,126
Bin values
2000
Sample
-1,293,144
-2,200,163
-3,107,181
-4,014,199
-4,921,217
-5,828,235
-6,735,253
-7,642,272
-8,549,290
-9,456,308
-10,363,326
-11,270,344
-12,177,362
0.0%
9541042.389
-3760140.298
-3404577.566
6922601.464
-7293347.73
674954.6216
8066083.919
-4262415.692
1338218.254
Maximum
Minimum
Sort
9817828
-1.2E+07
Lower bound Counting
-12404117
0
-11950608
4
-11497099
8
-11043590
14
-10590081
17
-10136572
22
-9683062.5
32
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
-3202800.396
-1274078.715
79352.70076
4335161.504
383886.6634
8193554.133
1907967.714
-7334978.741
-9515664.152
2780357.738
-11780668.74
7873733.273
-951748.255
9424488.957
3418941.037
2601836.309
-1228674.162
6550450.933
7269540.341
8983880.044
1758559.458
4468787.403
75742.41798
756526.4887
7266035.203
8756400.744
2195820.663
7067358.38
-4645272.684
-3970245.123
3474116.925
5448246.96
6913282.363
-6887618.628
506810.5211
-4093778.684
-1293751.254
4563088.877
8120141.789
2792148.551
1901045.206
-1160151.427
7375906.847
4262359.16
2696903.833
-337677.2475
739647.7811
1591367.877
-6614206.6
-4018499.642
8841450.372
9670506.675
-9229553.4
-8776044.3
-8322535.2
-7869026.1
-7415517
-6962008
-6508498.9
-6054989.8
-5601480.7
-5147971.6
-4694462.5
-4240953.5
-3787444.4
-3333935.3
-2880426.2
-2426917.1
-1973408
-1519899
-1066389.9
-612880.8
-159371.72
294137.365
747646.448
1201155.53
1654664.61
2108173.7
2561682.78
3015191.86
3468700.94
3922210.03
4375719.11
4829228.19
5282737.28
5736246.36
6189755.44
6643264.52
7096773.61
7550282.69
8003791.77
8457300.86
8910809.94
9364319.02
9817828.1
38
49
63
74
87
100
133
156
179
208
237
267
306
340
385
428
474
525
578
635
681
739
777
818
873
926
980
1054
1103
1156
1205
1269
1336
1407
1482
1561
1621
1694
1765
1835
1898
1952
1999
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
7468281.002
6714165.526
9393720.961
6909089.375
6454093.147
6611368.481
9399563.849
-8488612.39
5141943.301
630188.0982
7683584.609
7355478.463
9435863.935
7268852.046
-6954546.65
1244748.052
8037112.533
7194062.841
2867024.664
-1569009.724
-243079.5195
4753056.468
-3857654.989
5086089.369
-7954072.506
-3872379.008
2312155.272
4357209.791
1949494.56
7271434.064
8571681.239
-2544341.599
-2844825.448
4069142.66
1812412.459
-7907182.486
8575080.718
2003495.978
1851634.315
432168.4229
-2491735.85
4855476.41
-2934990.821
9581220.961
8557329.701
2386307.234
-1165098.64
-4187002.417
5321063.047
-4422072.086
-635816.4383
5228685.589
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
8424050.534
-2301308.639
-4866255.481
2209254.06
9202673.99
8807607.116
-2513947.748
5392244.857
-6964703.965
5539427.552
-8127670.116
6088976.7
3309574.891
3494094.053
-510966.3655
8481554.955
-899685.2919
-706934.3522
-471563.9143
8158044.19
-1373634.05
5434517.347
1005435.842
6825566.179
8416980.937
4510660.853
2266239.808
-6909920.404
-5361281.097
-6721072.654
4107623.161
7533571.401
460884.6863
3933117.58
4019370.758
-10037554.36
-6412302.342
9142613.855
2083373.708
7936765.238
5648994.922
-2717867.742
-1036642.705
2747355.969
3752024.325
7973015.267
6060941.317
-911306.9479
2804414.214
-1757790.379
4341531.089
2212428.382
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
8569352.956
-2977848.317
-771342.3723
-321310.924
7532076.246
-3686492.082
6424687.371
9084765.811
1784742.167
-1872242.003
5768110.973
5203236.674
971393.5515
-6957365.736
8016135.427
-5921483.3
1541635.752
-2685954.339
4146295.744
3213998.108
-2051771.253
-2723951.626
8139782.308
9182708.885
-7424705.623
3910903.316
-6856842.515
-2189421.845
-694999.3264
4886897.402
6712022.744
-3050920.047
2042501.414
7993415.212
9625863.818
-1669041.556
-3741678.631
7007839.774
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1715
1716
1717
1718
1719
1720
1721
1722
1723
1724
7041962.746
-4755224.289
3001002.396
2971530.462
8914849.964
592555.7084
510623.5747
-3198619.149
8341424.503
1420890.798
4248299.002
8659745.704
6165670.069
7545575.222
5052660.852
-1944533.041
8063287.742
-75824.16034
5062018.201
-517331.5164
-3734177.939
-6899354.033
-4292448.073
-2070025.71
4571976.861
2080384.23
5381881.931
8462177.846
7561163.855
7736246.992
9259785.602
-6448753.562
-228484.5533
1961245.279
-181158.929
-2229040.366
1038721.621
-5275657.413
8159692.046
6313733.155
8546673.504
8191494.647
1775414.401
9251253.974
5654267.606
5908721.465
2374613.589
8538866.874
-2947765.202
8231900.241
-3506081.848
2363.325106
1725
1726
1727
1728
1729
1730
1731
1732
1733
1734
1735
1736
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1772
1773
1774
1775
1776
906082.0641
-4565226.197
6004965.356
5599643.533
-2885648.379
-1607785.849
9312078.027
1604078.942
9254277.951
8294791.553
4710888.531
3759523.865
2409460.664
3233865.381
3852388.205
2562258.502
8647982.054
-2963703.768
6250502.588
8300944.863
-9802067.476
2912241.406
9710685.246
772707.4432
9192816.364
-8552396.61
-691147.4259
269339.8665
-145259.4124
6943804.447
1855074.018
-7986594.294
7180230.551
7612092.979
6301040.998
-1323925.968
-3569305.846
2869451.733
-5979490.898
3221621.614
-5653352.062
8961765.621
2144156.369
-2089456.211
-10353664.87
5021132.684
7197429.837
-10044432.62
8085450.145
9270483.627
-5165916.488
9661578.103
1777
1778
1779
1780
1781
1782
1783
1784
1785
1786
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1817
1818
1819
1820
1821
1822
1823
1824
1825
1826
1827
1828
4733807.075
4359655.059
5951653.901
7272439.268
7851883.147
3434904.414
-3439665.99
3564986.617
6887106.505
7676970.896
-1760598.169
-853647.9099
-8165471.507
-3265622.512
-9081740.991
165800.4148
-6077756.164
9339493.171
-3479015.734
84883.84817
5882231.111
5842803.832
8887591.37
7237327.941
1264364.184
2327800.912
3348049.932
7229865.173
5685531.529
6831701.667
-3608532.396
5909942.851
-871879.1375
-4576002.513
-125595.1881
7130626.629
3999793.802
2297589.743
8216491.359
358217.4638
8553445.138
6187812.99
-2786648.432
4421018.279
1473198.024
9519470.439
-8761863.261
5795139.292
-3788945.347
-4858264.541
-3712304.719
2505865.768
1829
1830
1831
1832
1833
1834
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1836
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1873
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1875
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1878
1879
1880
2758207.503
-10693238.29
-972372.2018
-6961899.361
5828158.607
-4772845.809
8802272.363
8940533.844
2049387.215
-3645283.062
-922666.7923
1272282.286
6659018.02
1162921.754
-619339.1493
6192035.597
1886777.004
-6523456.301
7277400.703
5684837.561
1231052.191
4369732.989
8043137.566
7361645.329
1741298.117
-2002179.156
5186180.59
-3324456.765
8307450.014
2898723.379
5320163.287
-2241702.086
-5944198.23
-1571830.585
-2189739.436
2274274.531
6065487.617
-5202656.499
2770344.104
5631769.558
-1984201.009
-402642.0342
6370789.842
5469512.23
266844.3626
-12130306.36
7403561.794
-2040515.661
-5520841.361
8815386.527
6355420.963
-985885.6201
1881
1882
1883
1884
1885
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1911
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1919
1920
1921
1922
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1924
1925
1926
1927
1928
1929
1930
1931
1932
6149309.888
5492061.718
7312916.234
-6136351.506
-7397550.242
7407564.932
-3963676.793
4752400.271
-4635730.14
6103140.299
1022930.752
3378584.785
-1921256.894
2231841.277
5233878.08
-7213611.016
1428029.701
8467625.656
-2466778.676
-278234.7191
9264930.192
7003347.012
9343401.376
9292265.442
7818303.922
2436237.215
-283015.2232
6451655.534
2863101.787
4314987.014
-3849984.054
-7524350.32
981819.4942
-2684530.648
6158546.575
-1950253.008
-1003144.229
6365220.659
-1924458.536
9808899.532
4591909.472
-3107720.333
-5339864.163
5900172.888
-1709680.37
6903273.65
9724078.103
7472492.821
-572435.5279
-6913877.453
4423376.851
2976839.318
1933
1934
1935
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1980
1981
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1983
1984
6328682
5104549.23
-4395613.712
-2876972.21
2672168.095
3981440.989
6188133.346
3113096.201
-3368893.255
215130.1487
-2552193.723
4383876.697
6360568.559
9323271.346
4125077.566
-5906833.443
6889863.69
-923555.5541
-59091.29114
8710276.385
5833984.611
4675703.578
9648185.246
4718840.104
-2926799.517
9496399.532
-3398699.907
8791842.566
-6205810.206
-4596531.834
5069078.026
2852926.638
7656630.476
-314044.4326
-5793724.653
-1918226.721
5012039.735
2833212.996
-8879203.591
-1171522.297
8713249.685
3127523.595
-1091088.908
468374.9432
2953681.109
6395203.686
-11887027.53
9121731.001
792638.8953
-8365253.622
-490324.1995
5650078.895
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
-2349150.641
8964449.546
3652795.456
-6725965.787
8123380.297
4899966.81
-4842498.41
2846196.395
5293217.01
-920526.1391
3466103.608
39848.16245
-1465038.162
-1975585.357
-8478014.227
3596379.408
0
This worksheet generates a historgram and a cumulative distribution function for a random variable
generated in the yellow cell. This can be a reference to a cell, e.g. profits, in another worksheet.
The sample size is fixed at 2000. The number of bins for the histogram is variable between 1 and 49.
Every time you press F9 a new sample of 2000 numbers is drawn and the histogram and cumulative
distribution functions are updated
Probability that realised value is less than target

value
9,591,074
8,684,055
Cumulative distribution function
cdf
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.7%
0.9%
1.1%
1.6%
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
-15,000,000
-10,000,000
-5,000,000
0
Target value
Bin
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Histogram
Bin label Counting Frequency
-1.2E+07
4
0.2%
-1.2E+07
4
0.2%
-1.1E+07
6
0.3%
-1.1E+07
3
0.2%
-1E+07
5
0.3%
-9909817
10
0.5%
-9456308
6
0.3%
5,000,000
10,000,000
1.9%
2.5%
3.2%
3.7%
4.4%
5.0%
6.7%
7.8%
9.0%
10.4%
11.9%
13.4%
15.3%
17.0%
19.3%
21.4%
23.7%
26.3%
28.9%
31.8%
34.1%
37.0%
38.9%
40.9%
43.7%
46.3%
49.0%
52.7%
55.2%
57.8%
60.3%
63.5%
66.8%
70.4%
74.1%
78.1%
81.1%
84.7%
88.3%
91.8%
94.9%
97.6%
100.0%
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
-9002799
-8549290
-8095781
-7642272
-7188763
-6735253
-6281744
-5828235
-5374726
-4921217
-4467708
-4014199
-3560690
-3107181
-2653672
-2200163
-1746654
-1293144
-839635
-386126
67382.82
520891.9
974401
1427910
1881419
2334928
2788437
3241946
3695455
4148965
4602474
5055983
5509492
5963001
6416510
6870019
7323528
7777037
8230546
8684055
9137564
9591074
4908914
11
14
11
13
13
33
23
23
29
29
30
39
34
45
43
46
51
53
57
46
58
38
41
55
53
54
74
49
53
49
64
67
71
75
79
60
73
71
70
63
54
47
0.6%
0.7%
0.6%
0.7%
0.7%
1.7%
1.2%
1.2%
1.5%
1.5%
1.5%
2.0%
1.7%
2.3%
2.2%
2.3%
2.6%
2.7%
2.9%
2.3%
2.9%
1.9%
2.1%
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
3.7%
2.5%
2.7%
2.5%
3.2%
3.4%
3.6%
3.8%
4.0%
3.0%
3.7%
3.6%
3.5%
3.2%
2.7%
2.4%
a random variable
her worksheet.
between 1 and 49.
am and cumulative
15,000,000

Garage On Web

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Please enter the number of levels designed:

Note: No more than 8 permitted, see text

Click F9 and go to respective sheets to see results.

y use the exchange rate of 2 Dollars/Pound.

owing as population expands. The basic data are

d rises exponentially at the rate of 750 spaces per

erating cost for each space available (often more

crease for every level above the ground level;

ven the long time horizon. The case assumes that

mns to the original building so that they can add

o the Expansion Option worksheets

n NPV of the flexible garage that can be expanded

lity is the difference in mean NPV between the

NPV Model for the Parking Garage

Average annual revenue

Note: No more than 8

Dynamic demand model:

Randomized NPV Model for the Parking Garage

Average annual revenue

5,000 per space used

Note: No more than 8

Simulation - Randomized NPV Model for the Parking Garage

1) link to random cell

6,630,505 (must change if you hit F9)

with 95% confidence

Probability that realised value is less than target

Cumulative distribution function

NPV Model with Expansion Option for the Parking Garage

Average annual revenue

5,000 per space used

8,000 per space

Maximum number of levels

Expansion rule Expand by

levels if past two years were at full capacity

wo years were at full capacity

1) link to random cell

9,541,042 (must change if you hit F9)

with 95% confidence

Probability that realised value is less than target

Cumulative distribution function

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