Probability 23

Probability
Introduction
The probability of a specified event is the chance or likelihood that it will occur. There are several ways of viewing probability. One would be experimental in nature, where we repeatedly conduct an experiment. uppose we flipped a coin over and over and over again and it came up heads about half of the time! we would expect that in the future whenever we flipped the coin it would turn up heads about half of the time. "hen a weather reporter says #there is a $%& chance of rain tomorrow,' she is basing that on prior evidence! that out of all days with similar weather patterns, it has rained on $ out of $% of those days. (nother view would be subjective in nature, in other words an educated guess. )f someone asked you the probability that the eattle *ariners would win their next baseball game, it would be impossible to conduct an experiment where the same two teams played each other repeatedly, each time with the same starting lineup and starting pitchers, each starting at the same time of day on the same field under the precisely the same conditions. ince there are so many variables to take into account, someone familiar with baseball and with the two teams involved might make an educated guess that there is a +,& chance they will win the game! that is, if the same two teams were to play each other repeatedly under identical conditions, the *ariners would win about three out of every four games. -ut this is .ust a guess, with no way to verify its accuracy, and depending upon how educated the educated guesser is, a sub.ective probability may not be worth very much. "e will return to the experimental and sub.ective probabilities from time to time, but in this course we will mostly be concerned with theoretical probability, which is defined as follows/ uppose there is a situation with n e0ually likely possible outcomes and that m of those n outcomes correspond to a particular event! then the probability of that event is defined as
m . n

Basic Concepts
)f you roll a die, pick a card from deck of playing cards, or randomly select a person and observe their hair color, we are executing an experiment or procedure. )n probability, we look at the likelihood of different outcomes. "e begin with some terminology. Events and Outcomes The result of an experiment is called an outcome. (n event is any particular outcome or group of outcomes. ( simple event is an event that cannot be broken down further The sample space is the set of all possible simple events. 1xample $ 2 3avid 4ippman 5reative 5ommons -67 (

28 )f we roll a standard 97sided die, describe the sample space and some simple events. The sample space is the set of all possible simple events/ :$,2,3,8,,,9; ome examples of simple events/ "e roll a $ "e roll a , ome compound events/ "e roll a number bigger than 8 "e roll an even number

Two dice

One die

Basic Probability <iven that all outcomes are e0ually likely, we can compute the probability of an event E using this formula/
P? E > = =umber of outcomes corresponding to the event 1 Total number of e0ually 7 likely outcomes

1xample 2 )f we roll a 97sided die, calculate a> P?rolling a $> b> P?rolling a number bigger than 8> @ecall that the sample space is :$,2,3,8,,,9; a> There is one outcome corresponding to #rolling a $', so the probability is b> There are two outcomes bigger than a 8, so the probability is
2 $ = 9 3 $ 9

Probabilities are essentially fractions, and can be reduced to lower terms like fractions. 1xample 3 4etAs say you have a bag with 2% cherries, $8 sweet and 9 sour. )f you pick a cherry at random, what is the probability that it will be sweetB There are 2% possible cherries that could be picked, so the number of possible outcomes is 2%. Of these 2% possible outcomes, $8 are favorable ?sweet>, so the probability that the cherry will be sweet is
$8 + = . 2% $%

There is one potential complication to this example, however. )t must be assumed that the probability of picking any of the cherries is the same as the probability of picking any other. This wouldnAt be true if ?let us imagine> the sweet cherries are smaller than the sour ones.

Probability 2, ?The sour cherries would come to hand more readily when you sampled from the bag.> 4et us keep in mind, therefore, that when we assess probabilities in terms of the ratio of favorable to all potential cases, we rely heavily on the assumption of e0ual probability for all outcomes.

Try it Now 1 (t some random moment, you look at your clock and note the minutes reading. a. "hat is probability the minutes reading is $,B b. "hat is the probability the minutes reading is $, or lessB

Cards ( standard deck of ,2 playing cards consists of four suits ?hearts, spades, diamonds and clubs>. pades and clubs are black while hearts and diamonds are red. 1ach suit contains $3 cards, each of a different rank/ an (ce ?which in many games functions as both a low card and a high card>, cards numbered 2 through $%, a Cack, a Dueen and a Eing. 1xample 8 5ompute the probability of randomly drawing one card from a deck and getting an (ce. There are ,2 cards in the deck and 8 (ces so P ? Ace> =
8 $ = %.%+9F ,2 $3

"e can also think of probabilities as percents/ There is a +.9F& chance that a randomly selected card will be an (ce. =otice that the smallest possible probability is % G if there are no outcomes that correspond with the event. The largest possible probability is $ G if all possible outcomes correspond with the event. Certain and mpossible events (n impossible event has a probability of %. ( certain event has a probability of $. The probability of any event must be % P? E > $ )n the course of this chapter, if you compute a probability and get an answer that is negative or greater than 1, you have made a mistake and should check your work.

29

Working with Events Complementary Events

=ow let us examine the probability that an event does not happen. (s in the previous section, consider the situation of rolling a six7sided die and first compute the probability of rolling a six/ the answer is P?six> H$I9. =ow consider the probability that we do not roll a six/ there are , outcomes that are not a six, so the answer is P?not a six> H
P ?six > + P ?not a six > = $ , 9 + = =$ 9 9 9 , . =otice that 9

This is not a coincidence. 5onsider a generic situation with n possible outcomes and an event E that corresponds to m of these outcomes. Then the remaining n 7 m outcomes correspond to E not happening, thus
P ? not E > = n m n m m = =$ =$ P? E > n n n n

Complement o! an Event The complement of an event is the event #E doesnJt happen' The notation E is used for the complement of event E. "e can compute the probability of the complement using P ( E ) = $ P? E > =otice also that P ? E > = $ P ( E )

1xample , )f you pull a random card from a deck of playing cards, what is the probability it is not a heartB There are $3 hearts in the deck, so P?heart > =
P ? not heart > =$ P ? heart > = $ $ 3 = 8 8 $3 $ = . ,2 8

The probability of not drawing a heart is the complement/

Probability of two independent events

1xample 9 uppose we flipped a coin and rolled a die, and wanted to know the probability of getting a head on the coin and a 9 on the die. "e could list all possible outcomes/ :K$,K2,K3,K8,K,,K9,T$,T2,T3,T8,T,,T9;. =otice there are 2 L 9 H $2 total outcomes. Out of these, only $ is the desired outcome, so the probability is
$ . $2

Probability 2+

The prior example was looking at two independent events. ndependent Events 1vents ( and - are independent events if the probability of 1vent - occurring is the same whether or not 1vent ( occurs. 1xample + (re these events independentB a> ( fair coin is tossed two times. The two events are ?$> first toss is a head and ?2> second toss is a head. b> The two events ?$> M)t will rain tomorrow in KoustonM and ?2> M)t will rain tomorrow in <alveston' ?a city near Kouston>. c> 6ou draw a card from a deck, then draw a second card without replacing the first. a> The probability that a head comes up on the second toss is $I2 regardless of whether or not a head came up on the first toss, so these events are independent. b> These events are not independent because it is more likely that it will rain in <alveston on days it rains in Kouston than on days it does not. c> The probability of the second card being red depends on whether the first card is red or not, so these events are not independent. "hen two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is the product of the probabilities of the individual events. P"A and B# !or independent events )f events A and B are independent, then the probability of both A and B occurring is P?A and B> H P?A> L P?B> where P?A and B> is the probability of events A and B both occurring, P?A> is the probability of event A occurring, and P?B> is the probability of event B occurring )f you look back at the coin and die example from earlier, you can see how the number of outcomes of the first event multiplied by the number of outcomes in the second event multiplied to e0ual the total number of possible outcomes in the combined event. 1xample N

2N )n your drawer you have $% pairs of socks, 9 of which are white, and + tee shirts, 3 of which are white. )f you randomly reach in and pull out a pair of socks and a tee shirt, what is the probability both are whiteB The probability of choosing a white pair of socks is The probability of choosing a white tee shirt is
9 . $%

3 . + 9 3 $N F = = The probability of both being white is $% + +% 3,

Try it Now $ ( card is pulled a deck of cards and noted. The card is then replaced, the deck is shuffled, and a second card is removed and noted. "hat is the probability that both cards are (cesB

The previous examples looked at the probability of both events occurring. =ow we will look at the probability of either event occurring. 1xample F uppose we flipped a coin and rolled a die, and wanted to know the probability of getting a head on the coin or a 9 on the die. Kere, there are still $2 possible outcomes/ :K$,K2,K3,K8,K,,K9,T$,T2,T3,T8,T,,T9; -y simply counting, we can see that + of the outcomes have a head on the coin or a 9 on the die or both G we use or inclusively here ?these + outcomes are K$, K2, K3, K8, K,, K9, T9>, so the probability is
+ . Kow could we have found this from the individual probabilitiesB $2

$ $ of these outcomes have a head, and of these outcomes have a 9 2 9 $ $ 9 2 N on the die. )f we add these, + = + = , which is not the correct probability. 2 9 $2 $2 $2

(s we would expect,

4ooking at the outcomes we can see why/ the outcome K9 would have been counted twice, since it contains both a head and a 9! the probability of both a head and rolling a 9 is )f we subtract out this double count, we have the correct probability/
N $ + = . $2 $2 $2 $ . $2

P"A or B# The probability of either A or B occurring ?or both> is

Probability 2F

P?A or B> H P?A> O P?B> G P?A and B> 1xample $% uppose we draw one card from a standard deck. "hat is the probability that we get a Dueen or a EingB There are 8 Dueens and 8 Eings in the deck, hence N outcomes corresponding to a Dueen or Eing out of ,2 possible outcomes. Thus the probability of drawing a Dueen or a Eing is/
P ?Eing or Dueen > = N ,2

=ote that in this case, there are no cards that are both a Dueen and a Eing, so P ?Eing and Dueen > = % . Psing our probability rule, we could have said/
P ?Eing or Dueen > = P?Eing> + P ?Dueen > P? Eing and Dueen > = 8 8 N + % = ,2 ,2 ,2

)n the last example, the events were mutually exclusive, so P?A or B> H P?A> O P?B>. 1xample $$ uppose we draw one card from a standard deck. "hat is the probability that we get a red card or a EingB
29 ,2 8 There are four kings, so P ?Eing > = ,2

Kalf the cards are red, so P ?red> =

There are two red kings, so P?@ed and Eing > = "e can then calculate

2 ,2 29 8 2 2N + = ,2 ,2 ,2 ,2

P ?@ed or Eing > = P ?@ed > + P ? Eing> P ?@ed and Eing > =

Try it Now % )n your drawer you have $% pairs of socks, 9 of which are white, and + tee shirts, 3 of which are white. )f you reach in and randomly grab a pair of socks and a tee shirt, what the probability at least one is whiteB

1xample $2

3% The table below shows the number of survey sub.ects who have received and not received a speeding ticket in the last year, and the color of their car. Qind the probability that a randomly chosen person/ a> Kas a red car and got a speeding ticket b> Kas a red car or got a speeding ticket. peeding =o speeding Total ticket ticket @ed car $, $3, $,% =ot red car 8, 8+% ,$, Total 9% 9%, 99, "e can see that $, people of the 99, surveyed had both a red car and got a speeding ticket, so the probability is
$, %.%229 . 99,

=otice that having a red car and getting a speeding ticket are not independent events, so the probability of both of them occurring is not simply the product of probabilities of each one occurring. "e could answer this 0uestion by simply adding up the numbers/ $, people with red cars and speeding tickets O $3, with red cars but no ticket O 8, with a ticket but no red car H $F, people. o the probability is
$F, %.2F32 . 99,

"e also could have found this probability by/ P?had a red car> O P?got a speeding ticket> G P?had a red car and got a speeding ticket> H
$,% 9% $, $F, + = . 99, 99, 99, 99,

Conditional Probability
Often it is re0uired to compute the probability of an event given that another event has occurred. 1xample $3 "hat is the probability that two cards drawn at random from a deck of playing cards will both be acesB )t might seem that you could use the formula for the probability of two independent events and simply multiply
8 8 $ = . This would be incorrect, however, because the two ,2 ,2 $9F

events are not independent. )f the first card drawn is an ace, then the probability that the second card is also an ace would be lower because there would only be three aces left in the deck.

Probability 3$ Once the first card chosen is an ace, the probability that the second card chosen is also an ace is called the conditional probability of drawing an ace. )n this case the MconditionM is that the first card is an ace. ymbolically, we write this as/ P?ace on second draw R an ace on the first draw>. The vertical bar MRM is read as Mgiven,M so the above expression is short for MThe probability that an ace is drawn on the second draw given that an ace was drawn on the first draw.M "hat is this probabilityB (fter an ace is drawn on the first draw, there are 3 aces out of ,$ total cards left. This means that the conditional probability of drawing an ace after one ace has already been drawn is
3 $ = . ,$ $+ 8 3 $2 $ = = . ,2 ,$ 29,2 22$

Thus, the probability of both cards being aces is

Conditional Probability The probability the event B occurs, given that event A has happened, is represented as P ?B R A > This is read as #the probability of B given A' 1xample $8 Qind the probability that a die rolled shows a 9, given that a flipped coin shows a head. These are two independent events, so the probability of the die rolling a 9 is of the result of the coin flip. 1xample $, The table below shows the number of survey sub.ects who have received and not received a speeding ticket in the last year, and the color of their car. Qind the probability that a randomly chosen person/ a> Kas a speeding ticket given they have a red car b> Kas a red car given they have a speeding ticket peeding =o speeding Total ticket ticket @ed car $, $3, $,% =ot red car 8, 8+% ,$, Total 9% 9%, 99, a> ince we know the person has a red car, we are only considering the $,% people in the first row of the table. Of those, $, have a speeding ticket, so P?ticket R red car> H
$, $ = = %.$ $,% $% $ , regardless 9

32 b> ince we know the person has a speeding ticket, we are only considering the 9% people in the first column of the table. Of those, $, have a red car, so P?red car R ticket> H
$, $ = = %.2, . 9% 8

=otice from the last example that P?- R (> is not e0ual to P?( R ->. These kinds of conditional probabilities are what insurance companies use to determine your insurance rates. They look at the conditional probability of you having accident, given your age, your car, your car color, your driving history, etc., and price your policy based on that likelihood. Conditional Probability &ormula )f 1vents A and B are not independent, then P?A and B> H P?A> L P?B R A> 1xample $9 )f you pull 2 cards out of a deck, what is the probability that both are spadesB The probability that the first card is a spade is
$3 . ,2 $2 , since ,$

The probability that the second card is a spade, given the first was a spade, is there is one less spade in the deck, and one less total cards. The probability that both cards are spades is
$3 $2 $,9 = %.%,NN ,2 ,$ 29,2

1xample $+ )f you draw two cards from a deck, what is the probability that you will get the (ce of 3iamonds and a black cardB 6ou can satisfy this condition by having 5ase ( or 5ase -, as follows/ 5ase (> you can get the (ce of 3iamonds first and then a black card or 5ase -> you can get a black card first and then the (ce of 3iamonds. 4etAs calculate the probability of 5ase (. The probability that the first card is the (ce of
$ . The probability that the second card is black given that the first card is the ,2 29 (ce of 3iamonds is because 29 of the remaining ,$ cards are black. The probability is ,$ $ 29 $ = therefore . ,2 ,$ $%2

3iamonds is

Probability 33
29 $ = . The probability that ,2 2 $ the second card is the (ce of 3iamonds given that the first card is black is . The ,$ $ $ $ probability of 5ase - is therefore = , the same as the probability of 5ase $. 2 ,$ $%2

=ow for 5ase -/ the probability that the first card is black is

@ecall that the probability of ( or - is P?(> O P?-> 7 P?( and ->. )n this problem, P?( and -> H % since the first card cannot be the (ce of 3iamonds and be a black card. Therefore, the
$ $ 2 + = . The probability that you will get the $%$ $%$ $%$ 2 (ce of 3iamonds and a black card when drawing two cards from a deck is . $%$

probability of 5ase ( or 5ase - is

Try it Now ' )n your drawer you have $% pairs of socks, 9 of which are white. )f you reach in and randomly grab two pairs of socks, what is the probability that both are whiteB

1xample $N ( home pregnancy test was given to women, then pregnancy was verified through blood tests. The following table shows the home pregnancy test results. Qind a> P?not pregnant R positive test result> b> P?positive test result R not pregnant> Positive =egative test Total test Pregnant +% 8 +8 =ot Pregnant , $8 $F Total +, $N F3 a> ince we know the test result was positive, weJre limited to the +, women in the first column, of which , were not pregnant. P?not pregnant R positive test result> H
, %.%9+ . +,

b> ince we know the woman is not pregnant, we are limited to the $F women in the second row, of which , had a positive test. P?positive test result R not pregnant> H
, %.293 $F

The second result is what is usually called a false positive/ ( positive result when the woman is not actually pregnant.

38

Bayes Theorem
)n this section we concentrate on the more complex conditional probability problems we began looking at in the last section. 1xample $F uppose a certain disease has an incidence rate of %.$& ?that is, it afflicts %.$& of the population>. ( test has been devised to detect this disease. The test does not produce false negatives ?that is, anyone who has the disease will test positive for it>, but the false positive rate is ,& ?that is, about ,& of people who take the test will test positive, even though they do not have the disease>. uppose a randomly selected person takes the test and tests positive. "hat is the probability that this person actually has the diseaseB There are two ways to approach the solution to this problem. One involves an important result in probability theory called -ayesA theorem. "e will discuss this theorem a bit later, but for now we will use an alternative and, we hope, much more intuitive approach. 4etAs break down the information in the problem piece by piece. Suppose a certain disease has an incidence rate of 0 1! "that is, it afflicts 0 1! of the population# The percentage %.$& can be converted to a decimal number by moving the decimal place two places to the left, to get %.%%$. )n turn, %.%%$ can be rewritten as a fraction/ $I$%%%. This tells us that about $ in every $%%% people has the disease. ?)f we wanted we could write P?disease>H%.%%$.> A test has been devised to detect this disease $he test does not produce false negatives "that is, anyone who has the disease will test positive for it# This part is fairly straightforward/ everyone who has the disease will test positive, or alternatively everyone who tests negative does not have the disease. ?"e could also say P?positive R disease>H$.> $he false positive rate is %! "that is, about %! of people who take the test will test positive, even though they do not have the disease# This is even more straightforward. (nother way of looking at it is that of every $%% people who are tested and do not have the disease, , will test positive even though they do not have the disease. ?"e could also say that P?positive R no disease>H%.%,.> Suppose a randomly selected person takes the test and tests positive &hat is the probability that this person actually has the disease' Kere we want to compute P?diseaseRpositive>. "e already know that P?positiveRdisease>H$, but remember that conditional probabilities are not e0ual if the conditions are switched. @ather than thinking in terms of all these probabilities we have developed, letAs create a hypothetical situation and apply the facts as set out above. Qirst, suppose we randomly select $%%% people and administer the test. Kow many do we expect to have the diseaseB ince about $I$%%% of all people are afflicted with the disease, $I$%%% of $%%% people is $. ?=ow you know why we chose $%%%.> Only $ of $%%% test sub.ects actually has the disease! the other FFF do not.

Probability 3, "e also know that ,& of all people who do not have the disease will test positive. There are FFF disease7free people, so we would expect ?%.%,>?FFF>H8F.F, ?so, about ,%> people to test positive who do not have the disease. =ow back to the original 0uestion, computing P?diseaseRpositive>. There are ,$ people who test positive in our example ?the one unfortunate person who actually has the disease, plus the ,% people who tested positive but donAt>. Only one of these people has the disease, so P?disease R positive>
$ %.%$F9 ,$

or less than 2&. 3oes this surprise youB This means that of all people who test positive, over FN& do not have the disease. The answer we got was slightly approximate, since we rounded 8F.F, to ,%. "e could redo the problem with $%%,%%% test sub.ects, $%% of whom would have the disease and ?%.%,> ?FF,F%%>H8FF, test positive but do not have the disease, so the exact probability of having the disease if you test positive is P?disease R positive>
$%% %.%$F9 ,%F,

which is pretty much the same answer. -ut back to the surprising result. (f all people who test positive, over )*! do not have the disease )f your guess for the probability a person who tests positive has the disease was wildly different from the right answer ?2&>, donAt feel bad. The exact same problem was posed to doctors and medical students at the Karvard *edical chool 2, years ago and the results revealed in a $F+N +ew England ,ournal of -edicine article. Only about $N& of the participants got the right answer. *ost of the rest thought the answer was closer to F,& ?perhaps they were misled by the false positive rate of ,&>. o at least you should feel a little better that a bunch of doctors didnAt get the right answer either ?assuming you thought the answer was much higher>. -ut the significance of this finding and similar results from other studies in the intervening years lies not in making math students feel better but in the possibly catastrophic conse0uences it might have for patient care. )f a doctor thinks the chances that a positive test result nearly guarantees that a patient has a disease, they might begin an unnecessary and possibly harmful treatment regimen on a healthy patient. Or worse, as in the early days of the ()3 crisis when being K)S7positive was often e0uated with a death sentence, the patient might take a drastic action and commit suicide. (s we have seen in this hypothetical example, the most responsible course of action for treating a patient who tests positive would be to counsel the patient that they most likely do not have the disease and to order further, more reliable, tests to verify the diagnosis. One of the reasons that the doctors and medical students in the study did so poorly is that such problems, when presented in the types of statistics courses that medical students often take, are solved by use of -ayesA theorem, which is stated as follows/ Bayes( Theorem

39
P? A R B> = P ? A> P? B R A> P? A> P ? B R A> + P ? A > P? B R A >

)n our earlier example, this translates to

P?disease R positive> = P ?disease> P ?positive R disease> P ?disease> P ?positive R disease> + P ?no disease> P? positive R no disease>

Plugging in the numbers gives

P ?disease R positive> = ?%.%%$>?$> %.%$F9 ?%.%%$>?$> + ?%.FFF>?%.%,>

which is exactly the same answer as our original solution. The problem is that you ?or the typical medical student, or even the typical math professor> are much more likely to be able to remember the original solution than to remember -ayesA theorem. Psychologists, such as <erd <igerenTer, author of .alculated /isks0 1ow to 2now &hen +umbers 3eceive 4ou, have advocated that the method involved in the original solution ?which <igerenTer calls the method of Mnatural fre0uenciesM> be employed in place of -ayesA Theorem. <igerenTer performed a study and found that those educated in the natural fre0uency method were able to recall it far longer than those who were taught -ayesA theorem. "hen one considers the possible life7and7death conse0uences associated with such calculations it seems wise to heed his advice. 1xample 2% ( certain disease has an incidence rate of 2&. )f the false negative rate is $%& and the false positive rate is $&, compute the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the disease. )magine $%,%%% people who are tested. Of these $%,%%%, 2%% will have the disease! $%& of them, or 2%, will test negative and the remaining $N% will test positive. Of the FN%% who do not have the disease, FN will test positive. o of the 2+N total people who test positive, $N% will have the disease. Thus
P ?disease R positive> = $N% %.98+ 2+N

so about 9,& of the people who test positive will have the disease. Psing -ayes theorem directly would give the same result/
P ?disease R positive> = ?%.%2>?%.F%> %.%$N = %.98+ ?%.%2>?%.F%> + ?%.FN>?%.%$> %.%2+N

Try it Now )

Probability 3+ ( certain disease has an incidence rate of %.,&. )f there are no false negatives and if the false positive rate is 3&, compute the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the disease.

Counting
5ountingB 6ou already know how to count or you wouldnAt be taking a college7level math class, rightB "ell yes, but what weAll really be investigating here are ways of counting efficiently. "hen we get to the probability situations a bit later in this chapter we will need to count some very large numbers, like the number of possible winning lottery tickets. One way to do this would be to write down every possible set of numbers that might show up on a lottery ticket, but believe me/ you donAt want to do this.

Basic Counting
"e will start, however, with some more reasonable sorts of counting problems in order to develop the ideas that we will soon need. 1xample 2$ uppose at a particular restaurant you have three choices for an appetiTer ?soup, salad or breadsticks> and five choices for a main course ?hamburger, sandwich, 0uiche, fa.ita or piTTa>. )f you are allowed to choose exactly one item from each category for your meal, how many different meal options do you haveB *olution 1/ One way to solve this problem would be to systematically list each possible meal/ soup O hamburger soup O sandwich soup O 0uiche soup O fa.ita soup O piTTa salad O hamburger salad O sandwich salad O 0uiche salad O fa.ita salad O piTTa breadsticks O hamburger breadsticks O sandwich breadsticks O 0uiche breadsticks O fa.ita breadsticks O piTTa (ssuming that we did this systematically and that we neither missed any possibilities nor listed any possibility more than once, the answer would be $,. Thus you could go to the restaurant $, nights in a row and have a different meal each night. *olution $/ (nother way to solve this problem would be to list all the possibilities in a table/ hambur+er sandwich ,uiche !ajita pi--a soup soupOburger salad saladOburger brea etc d )n each of the cells in the table we could list the corresponding meal/ soup O hamburger in the upper left corner, salad O hamburger below it, etc. -ut if we didnAt really care what the possible meals are, only how many possible meals there are, we could .ust count the number of cells and arrive at an answer of $,, which matches our answer from the first solution. ?)tAs always good when you solve a problem two different ways and get the same answerU>

3N

*olution %/ "e already have two perfectly good solutions. "hy do we need a thirdB The first method was not very systematic, and we might easily have made an omission. The second method was better, but suppose that in addition to the appetiTer and the main course we further complicated the problem by adding desserts to the menu/ weAve used the rows of the table for the appetiTers and the columns for the main coursesVwhere will the desserts goB "e would need a third dimension, and since drawing 373 tables on a 273 page or computer screen isnAt terribly easy, we need a better way in case we have three categories to choose form instead of .ust two. o, back to the problem in the example. "hat else can we doB 4etAs draw a tree dia+ram/

This is called a MtreeM diagram because at each stage we branch out, like the branches on a tree. )n this case, we first drew five branches ?one for each main course> and then for each of those branches we drew three more branches ?one for each appetiTer>. "e count the number of branches at the final level and get ?surprise, surpriseU> $,. )f we wanted, we could instead draw three branches at the first stage for the three appetiTers and then five branches ?one for each main course> branching out of each of those three branches. OE, so now we know how to count possibilities using tables and tree diagrams. These methods will continue to be useful in certain cases, but imagine a game where you have two decks of cards ?with ,2 cards in each deck> and you select one card from each deck. "ould you really want to draw a table or tree diagram to determine the number of outcomes of this gameB 4etAs go back to the previous example that involved selecting a meal from three appetiTers and five main courses, and look at the second solution that used a table. =otice that one way to count the number of possible meals is simply to number each of the appropriate cells in the

Probability 3F table, as we have done above. -ut another way to count the number of cells in the table would be multiply the number of rows ?3> by the number of columns ?,> to get $,. =otice that we could have arrived at the same result without making a table at all by simply multiplying the number of choices for the appetiTer ?3> by the number of choices for the main course ?,>. "e generaliTe this techni0ue as the basic counting rule/ Basic Countin+ .ule )f we are asked to choose one item from each of two separate categories where there are m items in the first category and n items in the second category, then the total number of available choices is m / n. This is sometimes called the multiplication rule for probabilities. 1xample 22 There are 2$ novels and $N volumes of poetry on a reading list for a college 1nglish course. Kow many different ways can a student select one novel and one volume of poetry to read during the 0uarterB There are 2$ choices from the first category and $N for the second, so there are 2$ / $N H 3+N possibilities. The -asic 5ounting @ule can be extended when there are more than two categories by applying it repeatedly, as we see in the next example. 1xample 23 uppose at a particular restaurant you have three choices for an appetiTer ?soup, salad or breadsticks>, five choices for a main course ?hamburger, sandwich, 0uiche, fa.ita or pasta> and two choices for dessert ?pie or ice cream>. )f you are allowed to choose exactly one item from each category for your meal, how many different meal options do you haveB There are 3 choices for an appetiTer, , for the main course and 2 for dessert, so there are 3 / , / 2 H 3% possibilities. 1xample 28 ( 0uiT consists of 3 true7or7false 0uestions. )n how many ways can a student answer the 0uiTB There are 3 0uestions. 1ach 0uestion has 2 possible answers ?true or false>, so the 0uiT may be answered in 2 / 2 / 2 H N different ways. @ecall that another way to write 2 / 2 / 2 is 23, which is much more compact. Try it Now 0

8% uppose at a particular restaurant you have eight choices for an appetiTer, eleven choices for a main course and five choices for dessert. )f you are allowed to choose exactly one item from each category for your meal, how many different meal options do you haveB

Permutations
)n this section we will develop an even faster way to solve some of the problems we have already learned to solve by other means. 4etAs start with a couple examples. 1xample 2, Kow many different ways can the letters of the word *(TK be rearranged to form a four7 letter code wordB This problem is a bit different. )nstead of choosing one item from each of several different categories, we are repeatedly choosing items from the same category ?the category is/ the letters of the word *(TK> and each time we choose an item we do not replace it, so there is one fewer choice at the next stage/ we have 8 choices for the first letter ?say we choose (>, then 3 choices for the second ?*, T and K! say we choose K>, then 2 choices for the next letter ?* and T! say we choose *> and only one choice at the last stage ?T>. Thus there are 8 / 3 / 2 / $ H 28 ways to spell a code worth with the letters *(TK. )n this example, we needed to calculate n L ?n G $> L ?n G 2> LLL 3 L 2 L $. This calculation shows up often in mathematics, and is called the !actorial, and is notated nU &actorial nU H n L ?n G $> L ?n G 2> LLL 3 L 2 L $ 1xample 29 Kow many ways can five different door priTes be distributed among five peopleB There are , choices of priTe for the first person, 8 choices for the second, and so on. The number of ways the priTes can be distributed will be ,U H , / 8 / 3 / 2 / $ H $2% ways. =ow we will consider some slightly different examples. 1xample 2+ ( charity benefit is attended by 2, people and three gift certificates are given away as door priTes/ one gift certificate is in the amount of W$%%, the second is worth W2, and the third is worth W$%. (ssuming that no person receives more than one priTe, how many different ways can the three gift certificates be awardedB

Probability 8$ Psing the -asic 5ounting @ule, there are 2, choices for the person who receives the W$%% certificate, 28 remaining choices for the W2, certificate and 23 choices for the W$% certificate, so there are 2, / 28 / 23 H $3,N%% ways in which the priTes can be awarded. 1xample 2N 1ight sprinters have made it to the Olympic finals in the $%%7meter race. )n how many different ways can the gold, silver and bronTe medals be awardedB Psing the -asic 5ounting @ule, there are N choices for the gold medal winner, + remaining choices for the silver, and 9 for the bronTe, so there are N / + / 9 H 339 ways the three medals can be awarded to the N runners. =ote that in these preceding examples, the gift certificates and the Olympic medals were awarded without replacement! that is, once we have chosen a winner of the first door priTe or the gold medal, they are not eligible for the other priTes. Thus, at each succeeding stage of the solution there is one fewer choice ?2,, then 28, then 23 in the first example! N, then +, then 9 in the second>. 5ontrast this with the situation of a multiple choice test, where there might be five possible answers V (, -, 5, 3 or 1 V for each 0uestion on the test. =ote also that the order of selection was important in each example/ for the three door priTes, being chosen first means that you receive substantially more money! in the Olympics example, coming in first means that you get the gold medal instead of the silver or bronTe. )n each case, if we had chosen the same three people in a different order there might have been a different person who received the W$%% priTe, or a different goldmedalist. ?5ontrast this with the situation where we might draw three names out of a hat to each receive a W$% gift certificate! in this case the order of selection is not important since each of the three people receive the same priTe. ituations where the order is not important will be discussed in the next section.> "e can generaliTe the situation in the two examples above to any problem without replacement where the order of selection is important. )f we are arranging in order r items out of n possibilities ?instead of 3 out of 2, or 3 out of N as in the previous examples>, the number of possible arrangements will be given by n L ?n G $> L ?n G 2> LLL ?n G r O $> )f you donAt see why ?n r O $> is the right number to use for the last factor, .ust think back to the first example in this section, where we calculated 2, / 28 / 23 to get $3,N%%. )n this case n H 2, and r H 3, so n r O $ H 2, 3 O $ H 23, which is exactly the right number for the final factor. =ow, why would we want to use this complicated formula when itAs actually easier to use the -asic 5ounting @ule, as we did in the first two examplesB "ell, we wonAt actually use this formula all that often, we only developed it so that we could attach a special notation and a special definition to this situation where we are choosing r items out of n possibilities without replacement and where the order of selection is important. )n this situation we write/

82 Permutations nPr H n L ?n G $> L ?n G 2> LLL ?n G r O $> "e say that there are nPr permutations of siTe r that may be selected from among n choices without replacement when order matters. )t turns out that we can express this result more simply using factorials.
n

Pr =

nU ?n r >U

)n practicality, we usually use technology rather than factorials or repeated multiplication to compute permutations. 1xample 2F ) have nine paintings and have room to display only four of them at a time on my wall. Kow many different ways could ) do thisB ince we are choosing 8 paintings out of F without replacement where the order of selection is important there are FP8 H F L N L + L 9 H 3,%28 permutations. 1xample 3% Kow many ways can a four7person executive committee ?president, vice7president, secretary, treasurer> be selected from a $97member board of directors of a non7profit organiTationB "e want to choose 8 people out of $9 without replacement and where the order of selection is important. o the answer is $9P8 H $9 L $, L $8 L $3 H 83,9N%.

Try it Now 1 Kow many , character passwords can be made using the letters ( through X a. if repeats are allowed b. if no repeats are allowed

Combinations
)n the previous section we considered the situation where we chose r items out of n possibilities without replacement and where the order of selection was important. "e now consider a similar situation in which the order of selection is not important.

Probability 83 1xample 3$ ( charity benefit is attended by 2, people at which three W,% gift certificates are given away as door priTes. (ssuming no person receives more than one priTe, how many different ways can the gift certificates be awardedB Psing the -asic 5ounting @ule, there are 2, choices for the first person, 28 remaining choices for the second person and 23 for the third, so there are 2, L 28 L 23 H $3,N%% ways to choose three people. uppose for a moment that (be is chosen first, -ea second and 5indy third! this is one of the $3,N%% possible outcomes. (nother way to award the priTes would be to choose (be first, 5indy second and -ea third! this is another of the $3,N%% possible outcomes. -ut either way (be, -ea and 5indy each get W,%, so it doesnAt really matter the order in which we select them. )n how many different orders can (be, -ea and 5indy be selectedB )t turns out there are 9/ (-5 (5-(5 -5( 5(5-(

Kow can we be sure that we have counted them allB "e are really .ust choosing 3 people out of 3, so there are 3 L 2 L $ H 9 ways to do this! we didnAt really need to list them all, we can .ust use permutationsU o, out of the $3,N%% ways to select 3 people out of 2,, six of them involve (be, -ea and 5indy. The same argument works for any other group of three people ?say (be, -ea and 3avid or Qrank, <loria and Kildy> so each three7person group is counted si5 times. Thus the $3,N%% figure is six times too big. The number of distinct three7person groups will be $3,N%%I9 H 23%%. "e can generaliTe the situation in this example above to any problem of choosing a collection of items without replacement where the order of selection is not important. )f we are choosing r items out of n possibilities ?instead of 3 out of 2, as in the previous nP r examples>, the number of possible choices will be given by , and we could use this P r r formula for computation. Kowever this situation arises so fre0uently that we attach a special notation and a special definition to this situation where we are choosing r items out of n possibilities without replacement where the order of selection is not important. Combinations nP r n .r = P r r "e say that there are n.r combinations of siTe r that may be selected from among n choices without replacement where order doesn6t matter. "e can also write the combinations formula in terms of factorials/
n

.r =

nU ? n r >UrU

88 1xample 32 ( group of four students is to be chosen from a 3,7member class to represent the class on the student council. Kow many ways can this be doneB ince we are choosing 8 people out of 3, without replacement where the order of selection is not important there are
3,

.8 =

3, 38 33 32 H ,2,39% combinations. 8 3 2 $

Try it Now 2 The Pnited tates enate (ppropriations 5ommittee consists of 2F members! the 3efense ubcommittee of the (ppropriations 5ommittee consists of $F members. 3isregarding party affiliation or any special seats on the ubcommittee, how many different $F7member subcommittees may be chosen from among the 2F enators on the (ppropriations 5ommitteeB

)n the preceding Try it =ow problem we assumed that the $F members of the 3efense ubcommittee were chosen without regard to party affiliation. )n reality this would never happen/ if @epublicans are in the ma.ority they would never let a ma.ority of 3emocrats sit on ?and thus control> any subcommittee. ?The same of course would be true if the 3emocrats were in control.> o letAs consider the problem again, in a slightly more complicated form/ 1xample 33 The Pnited tates enate (ppropriations 5ommittee consists of 2F members, $, @epublicans and $8 3emocrats. The 3efense ubcommittee consists of $F members, $% @epublicans and F 3emocrats. Kow many different ways can the members of the 3efense ubcommittee be chosen from among the 2F enators on the (ppropriations 5ommitteeB )n this case we need to choose $% of the $, @epublicans and F of the $8 3emocrats. There are $,.$% H 3%%3 ways to choose the $% @epublicans and $8.F H 2%%2 ways to choose the F 3emocrats. -ut now whatB Kow do we finish the problemB uppose we listed all of the possible $%7member @epublican groups on 3%%3 slips of red paper and all of the possible F7member 3emocratic groups on 2%%2 slips of blue paper. Kow many ways can we choose one red slip and one blue slipB This is a .ob for the -asic 5ounting @uleU "e are simply making one choice from the first category and one choice from the second category, .ust like in the restaurant menu problems from earlier. There must be 3%%3 L 2%%2 H 9,%$2,%%9 possible ways of selecting the members of the 3efense ubcommittee.

Probability 8,

Probability using Permutations and Combinations

"e can use permutations and combinations to help us answer more complex probability 0uestions 1xample 38 ( 8 digit P)= number is selected. "hat is the probability that there are no repeated digitsB There are $% possible values for each digit of the P)= ?namely/ %, $, 2, 3, 8, ,, 9, +, N, F>, so there are $% L $% L $% L $% H $%8 H $%%%% total possible P)= numbers. To have no repeated digits, all four digits would have to be different, which is selecting without replacement. "e could either compute $% L F L N L +, or notice that this is the same as the permutation $%P8 H ,%8%. The probability of no repeated digits is the number of 8 digit P)= numbers with no repeated digits divided by the total number of 8 digit P)= numbers. This probability is
$%

P8 ,%8% = = %.,%8 $% 8 $%%%%

1xample 3, )n a certain stateAs lottery, 8N balls numbered $ through 8N are placed in a machine and six of them are drawn at random. )f the six numbers drawn match the numbers that a player had chosen, the player wins W$,%%%,%%%. )n this lottery, the order the numbers are drawn in doesnJt matter. 5ompute the probability that you win the million7dollar priTe if you purchase a single lottery ticket. )n order to compute the probability, we need to count the total number of ways six numbers can be drawn, and the number of ways the six numbers on the playerJs ticket could match the six numbers drawn from the machine. ince there is no stipulation that the numbers be in any particular order, the number of possible outcomes of the lottery drawing is 8N.9 H $2,2+$,,$2. Of these possible outcomes, only one would match all six numbers on the playerJs ticket, so the probability of winning the grand priTe is/ $ 9 .9 = %.%%%%%%%N$, $22+$,$2 8N . 9 1xample 39 )n the state lottery from the previous example, if five of the six numbers drawn match the numbers that a player has chosen, the player wins a second priTe of W$,%%%. 5ompute the probability that you win the second priTe if you purchase a single lottery ticket. (s above, the number of possible outcomes of the lottery drawing is 8N.9 H $2,2+$,,$2. )n order to win the second priTe, five of the six numbers on the ticket must match five of the six winning numbers! in other words, we must have chosen five of the six winning numbers and

89 one of the 82 losing numbers. The number of ways to choose , out of the 9 winning numbers is given by 9., H 9 and the number of ways to choose $ out of the 82 losing numbers is given by 82.$ H 82. Thus the number of favorable outcomes is then given by the -asic 5ounting @ule/ 9., L 82.$ H 9 L 82 H 2,2. o the probability of winning the second priTe is.

( 9 ., )( 82 .$ ) =
8N

.9

2,2 %.%%%%2%, $22+$,$2

Try it Now 3 ( multiple7choice 0uestion on an economics 0uiT contains $% 0uestions with five possible answers each. 5ompute the probability of randomly guessing the answers and getting F 0uestions correct.

1xample 3+ 5ompute the probability of randomly drawing five cards from a deck and getting exactly one (ce. )n many card games ?such as poker> the order in which the cards are drawn is not important ?since the player may rearrange the cards in his hand any way he chooses>! in the problems that follow, we will assume that this is the case unless otherwise stated. Thus we use combinations to compute the possible number of ,7card hands, ,2.,. This number will go in the denominator of our probability formula, since it is the number of possible outcomes. Qor the numerator, we need the number of ways to draw one (ce and four other cards ?none of them (ces> from the deck. ince there are four (ces and we want exactly one of them, there will be 8.$ ways to select one (ce! since there are 8N non7(ces and we want 8 of them, there will be 8N.8 ways to select the four non7(ces. =ow we use the -asic 5ounting @ule to calculate that there will be 8.$ L 8N.8 ways to choose one ace and four non7(ces. Putting this all together, we have

P ?one (ce> =

( 8 .$ )( 8N .8 ) =
,2

.,

++N32% %.2FF 2,FNF9%

1xample 3N 5ompute the probability of randomly drawing five cards from a deck and getting exactly two (ces. The solution is similar to the previous example, except now we are choosing 2 (ces out of 8 and 3 non7(ces out of 8N! the denominator remains the same/

Probability 8+

$%3++9 %.%3FF 2,FNF9% ,2 . , )t is useful to note that these card problems are remarkably similar to the lottery problems discussed earlier. P? two (ces> = =

( 8 . 2 )( 8N .3 )

Try it Now 14 5ompute the probability of randomly drawing five cards from a deck of cards and getting three (ces and two Eings.

Birthday Problem
4etAs take a pause to consider a famous problem in probability theory/ uppose you have a room full of 3% people. "hat is the probability that there is at least one shared birthdayB Take a guess at the answer to the above problem. "as your guess fairly low, like around $%&B That seems to be the intuitive answer ?3%I39,, perhapsB>. 4etAs see if we should listen to our intuition. 4etAs start with a simpler problem, however. 1xample 3F uppose three people are in a room. "hat is the probability that there is at least one shared birthday among these three peopleB There are a lot of ways there could be at least one shared birthday. Qortunately there is an easier way. "e ask ourselves #"hat is the alternative to having at least one shared birthdayB' )n this case, the alternative is that there are no shared birthdays. )n other words, the alternative to #at least one' is having none. )n other words, since this is a complementary event, P?at least one> H $ G P?none> "e will start, then, by computing the probability that there is no shared birthday. 4etAs imagine that you are one of these three people. 6our birthday can be anything without conflict, so there are 39, choices out of 39, for your birthday. "hat is the probability that the second person does not share your birthdayB There are 39, days in the year ?letAs ignore leap years> and removing your birthday from contention, there are 398 choices that will guarantee that you do not share a birthday with this person, so the probability that the second person does not share your birthday is 398I39,. =ow we move to the third person. "hat is the probability that this third person does not have the same birthday as either you or the second personB There are 393 days that will not duplicate your birthday or the second personAs, so the probability that the third person does not share a birthday with the first two is 393I39,.

8N "e want the second person not to share a birthday with you and the third person not to share a birthday with the first two people, so we use the multiplication rule/ 39, 398 393 P ?no shared birthday> = %.FF$N 39, 39, 39, and then subtract from $ to get P?shared birthday> H $ G P?no shared birthday> H $ G %.FF$N H %.%%N2. This is a pretty small number, so maybe it makes sense that the answer to our original problem will be small. 4etAs make our group a bit bigger. 1xample 8% uppose five people are in a room. "hat is the probability that there is at least one shared birthday among these five peopleB 5ontinuing the pattern of the previous example, the answer should be 39, 398 393 392 39$ P ?shared birthday> = $ %.%2+$ 39, 39, 39, 39, 39, =ote that we could rewrite this more compactly as P, P ?shared birthday> = $ 39, , %.%2+$ 39, which makes it a bit easier to type into a calculator or computer, and which suggests a nice formula as we continue to expand the population of our group. 1xample 8$ uppose 3% people are in a room. "hat is the probability that there is at least one shared birthday among these 3% peopleB Kere we can calculate P ?shared birthday> = $ P %.+%9 39,
39, 3% 3%

which gives us the surprising result that when you are in a room with 3% people there is a +%& chance that there will be at least one shared birthdayU )f you like to bet, and if you can convince 3% people to reveal their birthdays, you might be able to win some money by betting a friend that there will be at least two people with the same birthday in the room anytime you are in a room of 3% or more people. ?Of course, you would need to make sure your friend hasnAt studied probabilityU> 6ou wouldnAt be guaranteed to win, but you should win more than half the time.

Probability 8F This is one of many results in probability theory that is counterintuitive! that is, it goes against our gut instincts. )f you still donAt believe the math, you can carry out a simulation. Cust so you wonAt have to go around rounding up groups of 3% people, someone has kindly developed a Cava applet so that you can conduct a computer simulation. <o to this web page/ http/IIwww7stat.stanford.eduIYsusanIsurpriseI-irthday.html, and once the applet has loaded, select 3% birthdays and then keep clicking tart and @eset. )f you keep track of the number of times that there is a repeated birthday, you should get a repeated birthday about + out of every $% times you run the simulation.

Try it Now 11 uppose $% people are in a room. "hat is the probability that there is at least one shared birthday among these $% peopleB

Expected alue
1xpected value is perhaps the most useful probability concept we will discuss. )t has many applications, from insurance policies to making financial decisions, and itAs one thing that the casinos and government agencies that run gambling operations and lotteries hope most people never learn about. 1xample 82 $ )n the casino game roulette, a wheel with 3N spaces ?$N red, $N black, and 2 green> is spun. )n one possible bet, the player bets W$ on a single number. )f that number is spun on the wheel, then they receive W39 ?their original W$ O W3,>. Otherwise, they lose their W$. On average, how much money should a player expect to win or lose if they play this game repeatedlyB uppose you bet W$ on each of the 3N spaces on the wheel, for a total of W3N bet. "hen the winning number is spun, you are paid W39 on that number. "hile you won on that one number, overall youJve lost W2. On a per7space basis, you have #won' 7 W2IW3N Z 7W%.%,3. )n other words, on average you lose ,.3 cents per space you bet on. "e call this average gain or loss the expected value of playing roulette. =otice that no one ever loses exactly ,.3 cents/ most people ?in fact, about 3+ out of every 3N> lose W$ and a very few people ?about $ person out of every 3N> gain W3, ?the W39 they win minus the W$ they spent to play the game>. There is another way to compute expected value without imagining what would happen if we play every possible space. There are 3N possible outcomes when the wheel spins, so the probability of winning is
$ 3+ . The complement, the probability of losing, is . 3N 3N

Photo 557-67 ( http/IIwww.flickr.comIphotosIstoneflowerI

,%

ummariTing these along with the values, we get this table/ Outcome Probability of outcome $ W3, 7W$
3N 3+ 3N

=otice that if we multiply each outcome by its corresponding probability we get

W3, $ 3+ = %.F2$$ and W$ = %.F+3+ , and if we add these numbers we get 3N 3N

%.F2$$ O ?7%.F+3+> Z 7%.%,3, which is the expected value we computed above. Expected 5alue Expected 5alue is the average gain or loss of an event if the procedure is repeated many times. "e can compute the expected value by multiplying each outcome by the probability of that outcome, then adding up the products.

Try it Now 1$ 6ou purchase a raffle ticket to help out a charity. The raffle ticket costs W,. The charity is selling 2%%% tickets. One of them will be drawn and the person holding the ticket will be given a priTe worth W8%%%. 5ompute the expected value for this raffle.

1xample 83 )n a certain stateAs lottery, 8N balls numbered $ through 8N are placed in a machine and six of them are drawn at random. )f the six numbers drawn match the numbers that a player had chosen, the player wins W$,%%%,%%%. )f they match , numbers, then win W$,%%%. )t costs W$ to buy a ticket. Qind the expected value. 1arlier, we calculated the probability of matching all 9 numbers and the probability of matching , numbers/ $ 9 .9 = %.%%%%%%%N$, for all 9 numbers, $22+$,$2 8N . 9 ( 9 ., )( 82 .$ ) = 2,2 %.%%%%2%, for , numbers. $22+$,$2 8N .9 Our probabilities and outcome values are/

Probability ,$ Outcome Probability of outcome $ WFFF,FF F $22+$,$2 2,2 WFFF 7W$

$22+$,$2 2,3 $22+$2,F $ = $22+$,$2 $22+$,$2

The expected value, then is/

( WFFF,FFF )

$ 2,2 $22+$2,F + ( WFFF ) + ( W$) W%.NFN $22+$,$2 $22+$,$2 $22+$,$2

On average, one can expect to lose about F% cents on a lottery ticket. Of course, most players will lose W$. )n general, if the expected value of a game is negative, it is not a good idea to play the game, since on average you will lose money. )t would be better to play a game with a positive expected value ?good luck trying to find oneU>, although keep in mind that even if the average winnings are positive it could be the case that most people lose money and one very fortunate individual wins a great deal of money. )f the expected value of a game is %, we call it a !air +ame, since neither side has an advantage. =ot surprisingly, the expected value for casino games is negative for the player, which is positive for the casino. )t must be positive or they would go out of business. Players .ust need to keep in mind that when they play a game repeatedly, their expected value is negative. That is fine so long as you en.oy playing the game and think it is worth the cost. -ut it would be wrong to expect to come out ahead.

Try it Now 1% ( friend offers to play a game, in which you roll 3 standard 97sided dice. )f all the dice roll different values, you give him W$. )f any two dice match values, you get W2. "hat is the expected value of this gameB "ould you playB

1xpected value also has applications outside of gambling. 1xpected value is very common in making insurance decisions.

1xample 88

,2 ( 8%7year7old man in the P. . has a %.282& risk of dying during the next year 2. (n insurance company charges W2+, for a life7insurance policy that pays a W$%%,%%% death benefit. "hat is the expected value for the person buying the insuranceB The probabilities and outcomes are Outcome Probability of outcome W$%%,%%% 7 W2+, H WFF,+2, %.%%282 7W2+, $ G %.%%282 H %.FF+,N The expected value is ?WFF,+2,>?%.%%282> O ?7W2+,>?%.FF+,N> H 7W33. =ot surprisingly, the expected value is negative! the insurance company can only afford to offer policies if they, on average, make money on each policy. They can afford to pay out the occasional benefit because they offer enough policies that those benefit payouts are balanced by the rest of the insured people. Qor people buying the insurance, there is a negative expected value, but there is a security that comes from insurance that is worth that cost.

Try it Now 6nswers $. There are 9% possible readings, from %% to ,F. a.

$ 9%

b.

$9 ?counting %% through $,> 9%

2. ince the second draw is made after replacing the first card, these events are independent. The probability of an ace on each draw is draws is
$ $ $ = $3 $3 $9F 8 $ = , so the probability of an (ce on both ,2 $3

3. P?white sock and white tee> H

9 3 F = $% + 3, 9 3 F 2+ + = P?white sock or white tee> H $% + 3, 3, 9 , 3% $ = = $% F F% 3

8. a.

,. Out of $%%,%%% people, ,%% would have the disease. Of those, all ,%% would test positive. Of the FF,,%% without the disease, 2,FN, would falsely test positive and the other F9,,$, would test negative.
2

(ccording to the estimator at http/IIwww.numericalexample.comIindex.phpBviewHarticle[idHF$

Probability ,3
,%% ,%% = Z $8.3& ,%% + 2FN, 38N,

P?disease R positive> H

9. N L $$ L , H 88% menu combinations +. There are 29 characters. a. 29, H $$,NN$,3+9. b. 29P, H 29L2,L28L23L22 H +,NF3,9%% N. Order does not matter.
2F

5$F H 2%,%3%,%$% possible subcommittees

F. There are ,$% H F,+9,,92, different ways the exam can be answered. There are F possible locations for the one missed 0uestion, and in each of those locations there are 8 wrong answers, so there are 39 ways the test could be answered with one wrong answer. 39 P?F answers correct> H $% Z %.%%%%%3+ chance , $%. P ? three (ces and two Eings> =

( 8 .3 )( 8 . 2 ) =
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.,

28 Z %.%%%%%F2 2,FNF9%

$$. P ?shared birthday> = $ $2. ( W3,FF,)

P$% Z %.$$+ 39,$%

39,

$ $FFF + ( W,) Z 7W3.%% 2%%% 2%%% , . The 9

$3. uppose you roll the first die. The probability the second will be different is probability that the third roll is different than the previous two is that the three dice are different is the complement, $

8 , so the probability 9

, 8 2% = . The probability that two dice will match is 9 9 39

2% $9 = . 39 39 $9 2% $2 = The expected value is/ ( W2 ) + ( W$) Z W%.33. 6es, it is in your advantage to 39 39 39

play. On average, youJd win W%.33 per play.

,8

Exercises
$. ( ball is drawn randomly from a .ar that contains 9 red balls, 2 white balls, and , yellow balls. Qind the probability of the given event. a. ( red ball is drawn b. ( white ball is drawn 2. uppose you write each letter of the alphabet on a different slip of paper and put the slips into a hat. "hat is the probability of drawing one slip of paper from the hat at random and getting/ a. ( consonant b. ( vowel

3. ( group of people were asked if they had run a red light in the last year. $,% responded MyesM, and $N, responded MnoM. Qind the probability that if a person is chosen at random, they have run a red light in the last year. 8. )n a survey, 2%, people indicated they prefer cats, $9% indicated they prefer dots, and 8% indicated they donJt en.oy either pet. Qind the probability that if a person is chosen at random, they prefer cats. ,. 5ompute the probability of tossing a six7sided die ?with sides numbered $ through 9> and getting a ,. 9. 5ompute the probability of tossing a six7sided die and getting a +. +. <iving a test to a group of students, the grades and gender are summariTed below. )f one student was chosen at random, find the probability that the student was female. ( 5 Total *ale N $N $3 3F Qemale $% 8 $2 29 Total $N 22 2, 9, N. The table below shows the number of credit cards owned by a group of individuals. )f one person was chosen at random, find the probability that the person had no credit cards. Xero One Two or more Total *ale F , $F 33 Qemale $N $% 2% 8N Total 2+ $, 3F N$ F. 5ompute the probability of tossing a six7sided die and getting an even number. $%. 5ompute the probability of tossing a six7sided die and getting a number less than 3. $$. )f you pick one card at random from a standard deck of cards, what is the probability it will be a EingB

Probability ,, $2. )f you pick one card at random from a standard deck of cards, what is the probability it will be a 3iamondB $3. 5ompute the probability of rolling a $27sided die and getting a number other than N. $8. )f you pick one card at random from a standard deck of cards, what is the probability it is not the (ce of padesB $,. @eferring to the grade table from 0uestion \+, what is the probability that a student chosen at random did =OT earn a 5B $9. @eferring to the credit card table from 0uestion \N, what is the probability that a person chosen at random has at least one credit cardB $+. ( six7sided die is rolled twice. "hat is the probability of showing a 9 on both rollsB $N. ( fair coin is flipped twice. "hat is the probability of showing heads on both flipsB $F. ( die is rolled twice. "hat is the probability of showing a , on the first roll and an even number on the second rollB 2%. uppose that 2$& of people own dogs. )f you pick two people at random, what is the probability that they both own a dogB 2$. uppose a .ar contains $+ red marbles and 32 blue marbles. )f you reach in the .ar and pull out 2 marbles at random, find the probability that both are red. 22. uppose you write each letter of the alphabet on a different slip of paper and put the slips into a hat. )f you pull out two slips at random, find the probability that both are vowels. 23. -ert and 1rnie each have a well7shuffled standard deck of ,2 cards. They each draw one card from their own deck. 5ompute the probability that/ a. -ert and 1rnie both draw an (ce. b. -ert draws an (ce but 1rnie does not. c. neither -ert nor 1rnie draws an (ce. d. -ert and 1rnie both draw a heart. e. -ert gets a card that is not a Cack and 1rnie draws a card that is not a heart. 28. -ert has a well7shuffled standard deck of ,2 cards, from which he draws one card! 1rnie has a $27sided die, which he rolls at the same time -ert draws a card. 5ompute the probability that/ a. -ert gets a Cack and 1rnie rolls a five. b. -ert gets a heart and 1rnie rolls a number less than six. c. -ert gets a face card ?Cack, Dueen or Eing> and 1rnie rolls an even number. d. -ert gets a red card and 1rnie rolls a fifteen. e. -ert gets a card that is not a Cack and 1rnie rolls a number that is not twelve.

,9 2,. 5ompute the probability of drawing a Eing from a deck of cards and then drawing a Dueen. 29. 5ompute the probability of drawing two spades from a deck of cards. 2+. ( math class consists of 2, students, $8 female and $$ male. Two students are selected at random to participate in a probability experiment. 5ompute the probability that a. a male is selected, then a female. b. a female is selected, then a male. c. two males are selected. d. two females are selected. e. no males are selected. 2N. ( math class consists of 2, students, $8 female and $$ male. Three students are selected at random to participate in a probability experiment. 5ompute the probability that a. a male is selected, then two females. b. a female is selected, then two males. c. two females are selected, then one male. d. three males are selected. e. three females are selected. 2F. <iving a test to a group of students, the grades and gender are summariTed below. )f one student was chosen at random, find the probability that the student was female and earned an (. ( 5 Total *ale N $N $3 3F Qemale $% 8 $2 29 Total $N 22 2, 9, 3%. The table below shows the number of credit cards owned by a group of individuals. )f one person was chosen at random, find the probability that the person was male and had two or more credit cards. Xero One Two or more Total *ale F , $F 33 Qemale $N $% 2% 8N Total 2+ $, 3F N$ 3$. ( .ar contains 9 red marbles numbered $ to 9 and N blue marbles numbered $ to N. ( marble is drawn at random from the .ar. Qind the probability the marble is red or odd7 numbered. 32. ( .ar contains 8 red marbles numbered $ to 8 and $% blue marbles numbered $ to $%. ( marble is drawn at random from the .ar. Qind the probability the marble is blue or even7 numbered. 33. @eferring to the table from \2F, find the probability that a student chosen at random is female or earned a -.

Probability ,+ 38. @eferring to the table from \3%, find the probability that a person chosen at random is male or has no credit cards. 3,. 5ompute the probability of drawing the Eing of hearts or a Dueen from a deck of cards. 39. 5ompute the probability of drawing a Eing or a heart from a deck of cards. 3+. ( .ar contains , red marbles numbered $ to , and N blue marbles numbered $ to N. ( marble is drawn at random from the .ar. Qind the probability the marble is a. 1ven7numbered given that the marble is red. b. @ed given that the marble is even7numbered. 3N. ( .ar contains 8 red marbles numbered $ to 8 and N blue marbles numbered $ to N. ( marble is drawn at random from the .ar. Qind the probability the marble is a. Odd7numbered given that the marble is blue. b. -lue given that the marble is odd7numbered. 3F. 5ompute the probability of flipping a coin and getting heads, given that the previous flip was tails. 8%. Qind the probability of rolling a #$' on a fair die, given that the last 3 rolls were all ones. 8$. uppose a math class contains 2, students, $8 females ?three of whom speak Qrench> and $$ males ?two of whom speak Qrench>. 5ompute the probability that a randomly selected student speaks Qrench, given that the student is female. 82. uppose a math class contains 2, students, $8 females ?three of whom speak Qrench> and $$ males ?two of whom speak Qrench>. 5ompute the probability that a randomly selected student is male, given that the student speaks Qrench. 83. ( certain virus infects one in every 8%% people. ( test used to detect the virus in a person is positive F%& of the time if the person has the virus and $%& of the time if the person does not have the virus. 4et ( be the event Mthe person is infectedM and - be the event Mthe person tests positiveM. a. Qind the probability that a person has the virus given that they have tested positive, i.e. find P?( R ->. b. Qind the probability that a person does not have the virus given that they test negative, i.e. find P?not ( R not ->. 88. ( certain virus infects one in every 2%%% people. ( test used to detect the virus in a person is positive F9& of the time if the person has the virus and 8& of the time if the person does not have the virus. 4et ( be the event Mthe person is infectedM and - be the event Mthe person tests positiveM. a. Qind the probability that a person has the virus given that they have tested positive, i.e. find P?( R ->. b. Qind the probability that a person does not have the virus given that they test negative, i.e. find P?not ( R not ->.

,N 8,. ( certain disease has an incidence rate of %.3&. )f the false negative rate is 9& and the false positive rate is 8&, compute the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the disease. 89. ( certain disease has an incidence rate of %.$&. )f the false negative rate is N& and the false positive rate is 3&, compute the probability that a person who tests positive actually has the disease. 8+. ( certain group of symptom7free women between the ages of 8% and ,% are randomly selected to participate in mammography screening. The incidence rate of breast cancer among such women is %.N&. The false negative rate for the mammogram is $%&. The false positive rate is +&. )f a the mammogram results for a particular woman are positive ?indicating that she has breast cancer>, what is the probability that she actually has breast cancerB 8N. (bout %.%$& of men with no known risk behavior are infected with K)S. The false negative rate for the standard K)S test %.%$& and the false positive rate is also %.%$&. )f a randomly selected man with no known risk behavior tests positive for K)S, what is the probability that he is actually infected with K)SB 8F. ( boy owns 2 pairs of pants, 3 shirts, N ties, and 2 .ackets. Kow many different outfits can he wear to school if he must wear one of each itemB ,%. (t a restaurant you can choose from 3 appetiTers, N entrees, and 2 desserts. Kow many different three7course meals can you haveB ,$. Kow many three7letter MwordsM can be made from 8 letters MQ<K)M if a. repetition of letters is allowed b. repetition of letters is not allowed ,2. Kow many four7letter MwordsM can be made from 9 letters M(1-"3PM if a. repetition of letters is allowed b. repetition of letters is not allowed ,3. (ll of the license plates in a particular state feature three letters followed by three digits ?e.g. (-5 $23>. Kow many different license plate numbers are available to the stateAs 3epartment of *otor SehiclesB ,8. ( computer password must be eight characters long. Kow many passwords are possible if only the 29 letters of the alphabet are allowedB ,,. ( pianist plans to play 8 pieces at a recital. )n how many ways can she arrange these pieces in the programB ,9. )n how many ways can first, second, and third priTes be awarded in a contest with 2$% contestantsB

Probability ,F ,+. even Olympic sprinters are eligible to compete in the 8 x $%% m relay race for the P ( Olympic team. Kow many four7person relay teams can be selected from among the seven athletesB ,N. ( computer user has downloaded 2, songs using an online file7sharing program and wants to create a 537@ with ten songs to use in his portable 53 player. )f the order that the songs are placed on the 537@ is important to him, how many different 537@s could he make from the 2, songs available to himB ,F. )n western music, an octave is divided into $2 pitches. Qor the film .lose Encounters of the $hird 2ind, director teven pielberg asked composer Cohn "illiams to write a five7 note theme, which aliens would use to communicate with people on 1arth. 3isregarding rhythm and octave changes, how many five7note themes are possible if no note is repeatedB 9%. )n the early twentieth century, proponents of the econd Siennese chool of musical composition ?including (rnold ch]nberg, (nton "ebern and (lban -erg> devised the twelve7tone techni0ue, which utiliTed a tone row consisting of all $2 pitches from the chromatic scale in any order, but with not pitches repeated in the row. 3isregarding rhythm and octave changes, how many tone rows are possibleB 9$. )n how many ways can 8 piTTa toppings be chosen from $2 available toppingsB 92. (t a baby shower $+ guests are in attendance and , of them are randomly selected to receive a door priTe. )f all , priTes are identical, in how many ways can the priTes be awardedB 93. )n the 9I,% lottery game, a player picks six numbers from $ to ,%. Kow many different choices does the player have if order doesnJt matterB 98. )n a lottery daily game, a player picks three numbers from % to F. Kow many different choices does the player have if order doesnJt matterB 9,. ( .ury pool consists of 2+ people. Kow many different ways can $$ people be chosen to serve on a .ury and one additional person be chosen to serve as the .ury foremanB 99. The Pnited tates enate 5ommittee on 5ommerce, cience, and Transportation consists of 23 members, $2 @epublicans and $$ 3emocrats. The urface Transportation and *erchant *arine ubcommittee consists of N @epublicans and + 3emocrats. Kow many ways can members of the ubcommittee be chosen from the 5ommitteeB 9+. 6ou own $9 53s. 6ou want to randomly arrange , of them in a 53 rack. "hat is the probability that the rack ends up in alphabetical orderB 9N. ( .ury pool consists of 2+ people, $8 men and $3 women. 5ompute the probability that a randomly selected .ury of $2 people is all male.

9% 9F. )n a lottery game, a player picks six numbers from $ to 8N. )f , of the 9 numbers match those drawn, they player wins second priTe. "hat is the probability of winning this priTeB +%. )n a lottery game, a player picks six numbers from $ to 8N. )f 8 of the 9 numbers match those drawn, they player wins third priTe. "hat is the probability of winning this priTeB +$. 5ompute the probability that a ,7card poker hand is dealt to you that contains all hearts. +2. 5ompute the probability that a ,7card poker hand is dealt to you that contains four (ces. +3. ( bag contains 3 gold marbles, 9 silver marbles, and 2N black marbles. omeone offers to play this game/ 6ou randomly select on marble from the bag. )f it is gold, you win W3. )f it is silver, you win W2. )f it is black, you lose W$. "hat is your expected value if you play this gameB +8. ( friend devises a game that is played by rolling a single six7sided die once. )f you roll a 9, he pays you W3! if you roll a ,, he pays you nothing! if you roll a number less than ,, you pay him W$. 5ompute the expected value for this game. hould you play this gameB +,. )n a lottery game, a player picks six numbers from $ to 23. )f the player matches all six numbers, they win 3%,%%% dollars. Otherwise, they lose W$. Qind the expected value of this game. +9. ( game is played by picking two cards from a deck. )f they are the same value, then you win W,, otherwise you lose W$. "hat is the expected value of this gameB ++. ( company estimates that %.+& of their products will fail after the original warranty period but within 2 years of the purchase, with a replacement cost of W3,%. )f they offer a 2 year extended warranty for W8N, what is the companyAs expected value of each warranty soldB +N. (n insurance company estimates the probability of an earth0uake in the next year to be %.%%$3. The average damage done by an earth0uake it estimates to be W9%,%%%. )f the company offers earth0uake insurance for W$%%, what is their expected value of the policyB

Probability 9$

Exploration
ome of these 0uestions were adapted from puTTles at mindyourdecisions.com.

+F. ( small college has been accused of gender bias in its admissions to graduate programs. a. Out of ,%% men who applied, 2,, were accepted. Out of +%% women who applied, 28% were accepted. Qind the acceptance rate for each gender. 3oes this suggest biasB b. The college then looked at each of the two departments with graduate programs, and found the data below. 5ompute the acceptance rate within each department by gender. 3oes this suggest biasB *en "omen 3epartment (pplied (dmitted (pplied (dmitted 3ept ( 8%% 28% $%% F% 3ept $%% $, 9%% $,% c. 4ooking at our results from Parts a and b, what can you concludeB )s there gender bias in this collegeJs admissionsB )f so, in which directionB N%. ( bet on #black' in @oulette has a probability of $NI3N of winning. )f you win, you double your money. 6ou can bet anywhere from W$ to W$%% on each spin. a. uppose you have W$%, and are going to play until you go broke or have W2%. "hat is your best strategy for playingB b. uppose you have W$%, and are going to play until you go broke or have W3%. "hat is your best strategy for playingB N$. 6our friend proposes a game/ 6ou flip a coin. )f itJs heads, you win W$. )f itJs tails, you lose W$. Kowever, you are worried the coin might not be fair coin. Kow could you change the game to make the game fair, without replacing the coinB N2. Qifty people are in a line. The first person in the line to have a birthday matching someone in front of them will win a priTe. Of course, this means the first person in the line has no chance of winning. "hich person has the highest likelihood of winningB N3. Three people put their names in a hat, then each draw a name, as part of a randomiTed gift exchange. "hat is the probability that no one draws their own nameB "hat about with four peopleB N8. Kow many different #words' can be formed by using all the letters of each of the following words exactly onceB a. #(4)51' b. #(PP41' N,. Kow many different #words' can be formed by using all the letters of each of the following words exactly onceB a. #T@P*P ' b. #T11T1@'

92 N9. The -onty 1all problem is named for the host of the game show 7et6s make a 3eal. )n this game, there would be three doors, behind one of which there was a priTe. The contestant was asked to choose one of the doors. *onty Kall would then open one of the other doors to show there was no priTe there. The contestant was then asked if they wanted to stay with their original door, or switch to the other unopened door. )s it better to stay or switch, or does it matterB N+. uppose you have two coins, where one is a fair coin, and the other coin comes up heads +%& of the time. "hat is the probability you have the fair coin given each of the following outcomes from a series of flipsB a. , Keads and % Tails b. N Keads and 3 Tails c. $% Keads and $% Tails d. 3 Keads and N Tails NN. uppose you have six coins, where five are fair coins, and one coin comes up heads N%& of the time. "hat is the probability you have a fair coin given each of the following outcomes from a series of flipsB a. , Keads and % Tails b. N Keads and 3 Tails c. $% Keads and $% Tails d. 3 Keads and N Tails NF. )n this problem, we will explore probabilities from a series of events. a. )f you flip 2% coins, how many would you e5pect to come up #heads', on averageB "ould you expect every flip of 2% coins to come up with exactly that many headsB b. )f you were to flip 2% coins, what would you consider a #usual' resultB (n #unusual' resultB c. Qlip 2% coins ?or one coin 2% times> and record how many come up #heads'. @epeat this experiment F more times. 5ollect the data from the entire class. d. "hen flipping 2% coins, what is the theoretic probability of flipping 2% headsB e. -ased on the classJs experimental data, what appears to be the probability of flipping $% heads out of 2% coinsB n 5 f. The formula n . 5 p 5 ($ p ) will compute the probability of an event with probability p occurring 5 times out of n, such as flipping 5 heads out of n coins where the probability of heads is p H ^. Pse this to compute the theoretic probability of flipping $% heads out of 2% coins. g. )f you were to flip 2% coins, based on the classJs experimental data, what range of values would you consider a #usual' resultB "hat is the combined probability of these resultsB "hat would you consider an #unusual' resultB "hat is the combined probability of these resultsB h. "eJll now consider a simplification of a case from the $F9%s. )n the area, about 29& of the .ury eligible population was black. )n the court case, there were $%% men on the .uror panel, of which N were black. 3oes this provide evidence of racial bias in .ury selectionB