Some Memorable Quotes If we begin with certainties, we shall end in doubts; but if we begin with doubts, and we are

patient in them, we shall end in certainties.-Sir Francis Bacon There are risks and costs to a program of action. But they are far less than the long-range risks and costs of comfortable inaction John F Kennedy

RISK MANAGEMENT-A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK IDENTIFY THREATS USE:- SWOT Analysis and PEST Anaysis

The basic PEST analysis includes four factors:

Political factors are basically to what degree the government intervenes in the economy. Specifically, political factors include areas such as tax policy, labor law, environmental law, trade restrictions, tariffs, and political stability. Political factors may also include goods and services which the government wants to provide or be provided (merit goods) and those that the government does not want to be provided (demerit goods or merit bad). Furthermore, governments have great influence on the health, education, and infrastructure of a nation. Economic factors include economic growth, interest rates, exchange rates and the inflation rate. These factors have major impacts on how businesses operate and make decisions. For example, interest rates affect a firm's cost of capital and therefore to what extent a business grows and expands. Exchange rates affect the costs of exporting goods and the supply and price of imported goods in an economy. Social factors include the cultural aspects and include health consciousness, population growth rate, age distribution, career attitudes and emphasis on safety. Trends in social factors affect the demand for a company's products and how that company operates. For example, an aging population may imply a smaller and less-willing workforce (thus increasing the cost of labor). Furthermore, companies may change various management strategies to adapt to these social trends (such as recruiting older workers). Technological factors include technological aspects such as R&D activity, automation, technology incentives and the rate of technological change. They can determine barriers to entry, minimum efficient production level and influence outsourcing decisions. Furthermore, technological shifts can affect costs, quality, and lead to innovation.

Expanding the analysis to PESTEL adds

Legal factors include discrimination law, consumer law, antitrust law, employment law, and health and safety law. These factors can affect how a company operates, its costs, and the demand for its products. Environmental factors include ecological and environmental aspects such as weather, climate, and climate change, which may especially affect industries such as tourism, farming, and insurance. Furthermore, growing awareness of the potential impacts of climate change is

affecting how companies operate and the products they offer, both creating new markets and diminishing or destroying existing ones.

2. 3. 4.

Identify risks to each area of business / task/ objective based on the threats Categorise risk impact Decide whether to a. b. c. d. Neutralise Offset Mitigate Ignore

5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

Make resource allocations accordingly Redraw the risk assessment Decide residual risk Give it a number / grade of residual risk (likelihood) Work out Risk Per Impact Cost, i.e. Impact x likelihood

10. Keep closer watch on items with high RISK IMPACT

CASE STUDIES 1-Bhopal Gas Tragedy 2- Chattisgarh -2014 Elections in Maoist infested belt 3-Attack on Parliament December 2001 4-Mumbai-26/11/2008 5-Uttarkhand-June 2013

GOOD GOVERNANCE Good governance has 8 major characteristics. It is participatory, consensus oriented, accountable, transparent, responsive, effective and efficient, equitable and inclusive and follows the rule of law. It assures that corruption is minimized, the views of minorities are taken into account and that the voices of the most vulnerable in society are heard in decision-making. It is also responsive to the present and future needs of society.

Figure 2: Characteristics of good governance Participation Participation by both men and women is a key cornerstone of good governance. Participation could be either direct or through legitimate intermediate institutions or representatives. It is important to point out that representative democracy does not necessarily mean that the concerns of the most vulnerable in society would be taken into consideration in decision making. Participation needs to be informed and organized. This means freedom of association and expression on the one hand and an organized civil society on the other hand. Rule of law Good governance requires fair legal frameworks that are enforced impartially. It also requires full protection of human rights, particularly those of minorities. Impartial enforcement of laws requires an independent judiciary and an impartial and incorruptible police force. Transparency Transparency means that decisions taken and their enforcement are done in a manner that follows rules and regulations. It also means that information is freely available and directly accessible to those who will be affected by such decisions and their enforcement. It also means that enough information is provided and that it is provided in easily understandable forms and media.

Responsiveness Good governance requires that institutions and processes try to serve all stakeholders within a reasonable timeframe. Consensus oriented There are several actors and as many view points in a given society. Good governance requires mediation of the different interests in society to reach a broad consensus in society on what is in the best interest of the whole community and how this can be achieved. It also requires a broad and long-term perspective on what is needed for sustainable human development and how to achieve the goals of such development. This can only result from an understanding of the historical, cultural and social contexts of a given society or community. Equity and inclusiveness A societys well being depends on ensuring that all its members feel that they have a stake in it and do not feel excluded from the mainstream of society. This requires all groups, but particularly the most vulnerable, have opportunities to improve or maintain their well being. Effectiveness and efficiency Good governance means that processes and institutions produce results that meet the needs of society while making the best use of resources at their disposal. The concept of efficiency in the context of good governance also covers the sustainable use of natural resources and the protection of the environment. Accountability Accountability is a key requirement of good governance. Not only governmental institutions but also the private sector and civil society organizations must be accountable to the public and to their institutional stakeholders. Who is accountable to whom varies depending on whether decisions or actions taken are internal or external to an organization or institution. In general an organization or an institution is accountable to those who will be affected by its decisions or actions. Accountability cannot be enforced without transparency and the rule of law. CONCLUSION From the above discussion it should be clear that good governance is an ideal which is difficult to achieve in its totality. Very few countries and societies have come close to achieving good governance in its totality. However, to ensure sustainable human development, actions must be taken to work towards this ideal with the aim of making it a reality.

Governance consists of 95 per cent implementation. This of course includes proper project conception, planning, appropriate technology, coordination among the implementing agencies, as well as sound project management-these are prerequisites for success. What are the Threats- Corruption, Leakage of intended funds through intermediaries who are involved in implementation AUDIT and ACCOUNTABILITY No Local Audit MACRO ISSUES IN QUALTY OF IMPLEMENTATION-No verification of field records Rampant Departmentalization. Personal identification cards to facilitate test checking. Use of available technology (smart cards, fingerprints etc.) should be resorted to the maximum extent. In addition-To be looked into-Leakages, Stable tenures for DM`s and departmental officers. Strong independent machinery to credibly test check implementation, to rapidly process punitive action and provide a climate for impartial but swift action without political intervention is a SINE QUA NON. The processes should be structured such that judicial intervention cannot be resorted to too readily and casually. An independent verification mechanism involving NGOs and private chartered accountants needs to be introduced. Technology is now available to facilitate implementation issues. Widespread use of IT in all aspects of implementation, including at the field level would be essential. Smart cards and personal identification mechanisms will certainly help. This is the way of the future.

BHOPAL GAS TRAGEDY

The Bhopal accident laid bare a number of significant shortcomings in India`s legal and regulatory structure for managing risk:-1) State Pollution Boards had no powers to shut down facilities, even those that posed imminent danger. 2)The Factories Act 1948 failed to distinguish between hazardous and nonhazardous facilities 3)The failure of Union Carbide to provide information on how to handle methyl isocynate (MIC) exposures, apparent in the Bhopal accident, spotlighted the absence of any statutory requirement to disclose needed emergency-response information.4)Plant sitting and modification procedures failed to require hazard assessments for new facilities or for proposed changes in existing ones already in place. 5) Citizens lacked recourse to the courts even if they had been exposed to high levels of hazards or if firms had violated safety provisions. 6)Firms typically found it more economically advantageous to avoid compliance and pay the penalties than to meet statutory requirements. LEGISLATIVE INITIATIVES- 1) THE ENVIRONMENT PROTECTION ACT -1986 An umbrella law to provide a holistic approach to Risk Management and to remedy shortcomings in existing environmental pollution laws (Most notably, The Water Act and Air Act) .The new law sought both to protect and improve the environment and to prevent major hazards. 2) THE FACTORIES AMENMENTACT 1987-Introduced additional safeguards in the handling of hazardous substances in factories. Also included were the duties of occupiers and disclosure of information of hazardous processes, hazard information, permissible exposure and penalties. 3)The Air(Amendment ) Act 1987 4)The Hazardous Wastes (Management and Handling ) Rules ,1989 5)the Public Liability Insurance Act ,1991 6)Environment(Protection)SecondAmendmentsRules,1992. Court Decisions-a)Polluter Warning Principle b)Polluter Pays Principle Oleum Leak Gas/Shriram Case opened the doors to carve and craft out the Principle of ABSOLUTE LIABILITY In the words of Chief Justice P.N.Bhagwati

speaking for the Court, held that Where an enterprise is engaged in hazardous or inherently dangerous activities and harm results to anyone on account of an accident in the operation of such hazardous or inherently

dangerous activity.,the enterprise is strictly and absolutely liable to compensate all those who were affected by the accident.

ELECTIONS IN MAOIST INFESTED AREAS/BELT-RISKS

1. One of the major challenges to conduct free, fair and transparent elections is the challenge and RISK posed by the left-wing extremism in the central part of India, terrorism in J&K and insurgency in the few states of North-East especially Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya (Garo Hills) and few districts Tripura bordering the Bangladesh. 2. It is our decade long experience that in these areas whenever elections are announced either for the assembly or for the Parliament, the left wing extremists as well as terrorists and insurgents gives a call for boycott or bandh against the elections. They mobilise their cadres and their armed guerrilla wing to threaten the local population as well as the local institutions to desist from the conduct of elections. In other words, they normally boycott the electioneering process and also the conduct of actual elections. 3. The normal modus operandi of this extremist, terrorist, insurgent groups is to instill fear, terror in the minds of local populations and local administrative and police officials. 4 RISKS . The risk and challenges which engage local staff in these areas in conduct of free and fair elections are to obtain adequate number of officers and men both civil and police as volunteer workers or as poll duty officers. Due to this factor, ECI normally utilizes the staff and officers of the local area so that they are aware of the terrain the language and the population. (i) The First Risk , Since non-local officers and staff do normally expresses their inhibition to work in those left-wing extremists and terror stricken areas. (ii) The Second Risk challenge is about the absence of infrastructure like school and colleges for the purpose of locating the polling stations as well as for the accommodation of booth polling parties and escort parties as well as the police staff to guard against any mischief or activities by the leftist wing. This absence of buildings and infrastructure poses very high degree of managerial problem to the election management bodies. (iii) The Third Risk factor is very serious issue for the election management bodies is about the absence of road and telecommunications facilities. In most of these left wing extremists areas or insurgent prone areas also affected with the absence of proper communications facilities including the absence of roads and tracks. Since there are no roads or proper telecommunications facilities in these areas, it poses serious problem to be in contact with them

and also to mount any rescue operations to retrieve both men and material in case of any unfortunate incident like attack or man made disasters. 5. Since the elections and the programmes dates are well known to the every citizen/voter of the area, this poses an extra security risks to the staff and employees of the Election Commission to man these polling stations/polling booths in the remote inaccessible areas without proper telecommunication system. Similarly, the high risk of attack to them during proceeding forward to the polling stations or their return from the polling stations back to the RO headquarters are always a point of high risk since the insurgent as well as extremists could plan their strike suiting their time/convenience to them. Hence, the polling day as well as the movement of force, the movement of staff provide an excellent opportunities and targets to cause damages by this extremist and terrorist groups. Therefore ECI always advises the team to take an appropriate step to ensure that their movement and the place by which they will be proceeding towards polling stations or their return to HQs are always close guarded and secret so that it is not shared or allowed to be known to the extremist, terrorist groups. Finally, it is the endeavour of the ECI to restrict the movement of these terrorist, extremists or insurgent groups before the elections at least 8-10 days so that due to these area domination by our security forces, there will be a minimal chance of these extremists groups to mobilise their manpower as well as their arms and ammunitions or be able to deploy their activists in and around those routes as well as in the place of polling stations. Care also being taken to ensure that polling stations buildings or structures utilized for the temporary accommodation of the polling parties/force are systematically checked against mines or IEDs so that losses or damages of life and properties of the citizens of the state are reduced to maximum if not nil. In conclusion, one could say that ECI will take all the necessary steps to ensure very peaceful polling by appealing to all to ensure that the poll process goes off well without any hindrance from any quarter. Despite all these precautions and steps adopted by every officers and staff of ECI during poll process there could be some incidents which sometimes could be termed as unfortunate.

Attack on Parliament December 2001

After the attack, the army was sent on full alert across our entire western border with Pakistan. This was winter and the army had to endure harsh conditions in Kashmir in full alert. Four months later the full alert continued in temperatures of 110 degrees Fahrenheit in Rajasthan border as well. Nobody in Delhi thought of discontinuing the full alert for months on ends. This state of affairs continued non-stop by default. No one had the courage to suspend or rescind the order of full alert. But was war really on the anvil for so many months? Not at all. Pakistan must have been aware and known all along that no war was really going to happen. Only in 2013 one of the plotters Afzal Guru was executed.

MUMBAI -26/11/2008
What did we do? There was a charade of weak-kneed exchange of documents, `evidence` and silent discussions on legal and evidentiary aspects with Pakistan. We wanted to convince the criminal that he had committed a crime by asking him to agree with the documents that we produced. It all resulted in

prolonged fruitless diplomatic exchanges without the offenders being brought to book. The lone exception was the execution of Kasab. Both these events highlight that no risks were really taken or even imagined by the government. Should we have been more aggressive which we were not? It only exposed ourselves as a Soft State not willing to take any Risks

UTTARKHAND TRAGEDY JUNE 2013

The recent Uttarkhand tragedy, in the Kedar Nath Valley has brought to the fore the issue of vulnerability of the system and lack of preparedness in the face of natural disasters. While the proximate cause was the breach of a water- body north of Kedar Nath due to heavy rains, the extensive damage caused was from reckless lack of preparedness, apart from wanton permission to degrade the environment in the area, resulting in probably ten times the loss that there should have been there. Indiscriminate felling of trees, unfettered pilgrim traffic facilitated by heavy road-building without consideration for the capacity of the land to bear it, free permission to construct shops, hotels and residences right on the river bank; in other words reckless disregard for the fragility of the environment clearly is to blame for the severity of the loss.

Development is essential, but it has to be sustainable otherwise the entire process will get violently disrupted---Nature cannot be trifled with.
FACING THE SWORD OF DEMOCLES

Sword of Damocles According to the Greek mythology, Damocles was once invited by his king to a banquet. However, at the table he had to eat his meal under a razor-sharp sword hanging on a fine thread. So chance and risk are tightly linked for Damocles and the Sword of Damocles became a symbol for a threatening danger in luck. The myth does not tell about a snapping of the thread with its fatal consequences. The threat rather comes from the possibility that a fatal event could occur for Damocles any time even if the probability is low. This can be transferred to risks with large damage potentials. Many sources of technological risks have a very high disaster potential, although the probability that this potential manifests as a damage is extremely low. So the prime characteristics of this risk class are its combination of low probability with high extent of damage. Typical examples are

technological risks such as nuclear energy, large-scale chemical facilities and dams/environmental disasters like Uttarkhand.

Summary of Risk in Governance- Dr.S.K.Pachauri IAS Retd

RISK MANAGEMENT-A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 1-IDENTIFY THREATS :- USE a) SWOT Analysis and b) PEST Analysis 2) Identify risks to each area of business / task/ objective based on the threats3)Categorise risk impact 4)Decide whether to a)Neutralise b) Offset c)Mitigate d)Ignore5)Make resource allocations accordingly6)Redraw the risk assessment7)Decide residual risk 8)Give it a number / grade of residual risk (likelihood) 9) Work out Risk Per Impact Cost, i.e. Impact x likelihood 10) Keep closer watch on items with high RISK IMPACT CASE STUDIES :-1)Bhopal Gas Tragedy 2) Chattisgarh -2014 Elections in Maoist infested belt 3)Attack on Parliament December 2001 4)Mumbai-26/11/2008 5) Uttarkhand-June 2013

WHAT IS GOOD GOVERNANCE ITS COMPONENTS

GOOD GOVERNANCE has 8 major characteristics