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Arkansas
400 Interviews
Margin of Error: +/- 4.9%
Yes................................................................
100%
No/(Dont know) ----> TERMINATE
Definitely vote ................................
77%
Probably vote ................................
23
All other responses-> TERMINATE
QC. In November, elections will be held for Governor, U.S. Senate, Congress, and
other offices. But there is no election for President. Although it is a while away, how
likely are you to vote in that election: will you definitely vote; probably but not certainly
vote in it; are the chances about 50-50 that you will vote, or is it likely that you will not
vote in November?
Q1. When it comes to politics, do you generally think of yourself as a Democrat, an
Independent or a Republican?
ASK IF DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN
VOL:
VOL:
person is very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don't recognize a name, just say so.
Here's the first one: [READ ITEM] Have you heard of him? [IF YES] Is your impression of that person very favorable, somewhat favorable,
somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable?
FAVORABLE
Very Some
Mark Pryor................................................................15%
33
ROTATE
(Mixed)
UNFAVORABLE
Some
Very
(Cant
rate)
Never
heard
RECOGNITION
Effective Total
TOTAL
Fav
Unfav
19
17
85%
94%
47%
36
25
11
18
13
21
67%
79%
36%
28
13
15
50
98%
100%
32%
65
Q3. Mark Pryor is running for another term in the U.S. Senate this year.
At this
point, would you most likely vote for Pryor to serve another term in the U.S.
Senate, or would you most likely vote to replace him with a Republican? [IF
CHOICE] Do you strongly or only somewhat support [RE-ELECTING
PRYOR/REPLACING PRYOR WITH A REPUBLICAN]?
VOL:
VOL:
Likely Definite
PRYOR: Strongly................................
23%
24%
PRYOR: Somewhat ................................
16
14
REPUBLICAN: Somewhat ................................
14
14
REPUBLICAN: Strongly ................................
33
36
(Depends) ................................................................
5
5
(Dont know) ................................ 9
7
TOTAL PRYOR ................................39%
TOTAL REPUBLICAN ................................
47
Q4. In particular, if the election for U.S. Senate were held today, the candidates are
[ROTATE:]
VOL:
38%
50
Likely Definite
Pryor ................................................................
38%
37%
(Lean Pryor) ................................
2
2
Cotton ................................................................
36
39
(Lean Cotton)................................ 1
2
Vote/lean Bryan ................................ 6
6
Vote/lean Swaney................................1
1
Vote/lean LaFrance ................................
1
1
(Undecided) ................................ 14
12
TOTAL PRYOR ................................40%
TOTAL COTTON ................................
37
39%
41
HAI3224
Arkansas
Page 2/3
Q5. And, in the election for U.S. Senate, what if the candidates were only [ROTATE:]
Mark Pryor, the Democrat, AND
VOL:
Likely Definite
Pryor ................................................................
44%
41%
(Lean Pryor) ................................
1
1
Cotton ................................................................
46
50
(Lean Cotton)................................ *
1
(Don't know)................................
8
7
TOTAL PRYOR ................................46%
TOTAL COTTON ................................
46
42%
51
oppose oil and natural gas extraction that uses hydraulic fracturing, sometimes
known as fracking?
VOL:
oppose the construction of the Keystone XL oil pipeline across Montana, South
Dakota, and Nebraska to bring oil from Canada and the Northern U.S. to refineries
in Texas?
VOL:
the Keystone XL pipeline. Would Obama denying the permit to construct the
Keystone XL pipeline make you much more likely, somewhat more likely,
somewhat less likely, or much less likely to vote for Mark Pryor for U.S. Senate?
VOL:
VOL:
pipeline, in terms of how you will vote in this years election? Are they very
important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all in
determining how you will vote?
VOL:
VOL:
Now I would like to ask you a few final questions for statistical purposes only.
D100. Sex.
Male ................................................................
48%
Female ................................................................
52
VOL:
18-24 ................................................................
6%
25-29 ................................................................
5
30-34 ................................................................
6
35-39 ................................................................
7
40-44 ................................................................
7
45-49 ................................................................
7
50-54 ................................................................
9
55-59 ................................................................
9
60-64 ................................................................
10
65+ ................................................................
33
(Refused) ................................................................
2
VOL:
Liberal ................................................................
10%
Somewhat liberal ................................6
Moderate ................................................................
14
Somewhat conservative ................................
21
Conservative ................................ 40
(Dont know) ................................ 9
TOTAL LIBERAL................................
16%
TOTAL CONSERVATIVE ................................
61
HAI3224
Arkansas
Page 3/3
VOL:
Yes ................................................................
66%
No................................................................
32
(Don't know/Not sure) ................................2
VOL:
Yes ................................................................
87%
No................................................................
13
(Don't know/Not sure) ................................*
VOL:
D512. Would you say you mainly use your landline telephone, mainly use your mobile
VOL:
VOL:
Black ................................................................
11%
White ................................................................
85
(Other) ................................................................
2
(Dont know/Refused) ................................2
VOL:
Yes ................................................................
3%
No................................................................
92
(Don't know/Refused) ................................5
Net
Fav
Total
Fav
Tom Cotton
Total CR/
Unfav NH
Net
Fav
Total recognition
Mark
Tom
Pryor Cotton
Effective recognition
Mark
Tom
Pryor
Cotton
Total
Total
Fav
TOTAL
400
47%
36
15
11
36%
28
33
94%
79%
85%
67%
Definite voters
308
47%
42
10
40%
31
27
95%
84%
90%
73%
MEDIA MARKET
Ft. Smith
Little Rock
Rest
87
206
107
47%
49%
46%
38
37
34
11
15
18
9
12
12
36%
39%
32%
29
33
18
30
26
49
7
6
14
96%
95%
91%
83%
84%
67%
89%
85%
82%
70%
74%
51%
RACE
White
Black
339
44
45%
69%
40
17
14
15
5
52
38%
28%
28
26
31
45
10
2
95%
90%
82%
67%
86%
85%
69%
55%
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat
White Democrat
Others
Republican
106
69
148
146
75%
78%
45%
30%
11
11
34
57
13
10
19
12
64
67
11
-27
18%
13%
33%
52%
50
63
25
16
30
22
39
30
-32
-50
9
37
90%
92%
97%
93%
81%
87%
76%
82%
87%
90%
81%
88%
70%
78%
61%
70%
WHITE-SEX
Male
Female
163
176
39%
50%
46
33
13
15
-7
16
46%
31%
23
33
29
33
22
-2
94%
96%
82%
81%
87%
85%
71%
67%
WHITE-AGE
18-39
40-59
60+
75
112
152
27%
50%
49%
44
32
43
28
16
6
-17
18
6
31%
45%
37%
22
17
39
45
34
22
9
28
-3
88%
94%
99%
72%
81%
86%
72%
84%
94%
55%
66%
78%
WHITE-IDEOLOGY
Liberal
Other
Conservative
52
70
217
69%
54%
36%
8
23
52
20
19
11
61
31
-17
14%
24%
48%
51
42
18
29
29
32
-37
-18
30
94%
95%
95%
78%
81%
83%
80%
81%
89%
71%
71%
68%
RE-ELECT
Pryor
Republican
Depends/Don't know
158
189
53
83%
21%
36%
5
65
27
12
12
34
78
-44
9
20%
56%
15%
44
15
26
34
26
58
-24
41
-11
95%
95%
88%
80%
85%
59%
88%
88%
66%
66%
74%
42%
183
184
77%
23%
9
63
14
13
68
-39
17%
61%
44
12
37
24
-27
49
94%
94%
78%
86%
86%
87%
63%
76%
HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Support
Oppose
Don't know
197
127
76
41%
58%
46%
46
27
27
12
13
26
-5
32
20
46%
28%
26%
19
42
29
34
27
44
27
-14
-3
94%
94%
94%
78%
84%
74%
88%
87%
74%
66%
73%
56%
KEYSTONE
Support
Oppose
Don't know
280
66
54
42%
71%
47%
45
14
18
12
11
34
-3
56
29
44%
20%
16%
23
48
30
31
30
51
21
-28
-14
95%
91%
92%
81%
77%
74%
88%
89%
66%
69%
70%
49%
EFFECT ON VOTE
More likely to vote Pryor
Less likely to vote Pryor
No difference/Don't know
75
128
77
69%
24%
45%
18
69
32
13
6
22
51
-45
14
33%
55%
36%
37
15
23
29
27
38
-4
40
13
91%
98%
94%
82%
83%
78%
87%
94%
78%
71%
73%
62%
ENERGY ISSUES
Very important
Not very important
154
246
35%
55%
52
27
12
17
-17
29
42%
33%
22
32
35
33
21
0
96%
93%
79%
79%
88%
83%
65%
67%
Total
LaFrance
DK
Net
Pryor
Pryor
Cotton
DK
Net
Pryor
TOTAL
400
39%
47
13
-8
40%
37
14
46%
46
Definite voters
308
38%
50
12
-12
39%
41
12
-2
42%
51
-9
MEDIA MARKET
Ft. Smith
Little Rock
Rest
87
206
107
38%
40%
40%
52
47
43
11
13
17
-14
-7
-4
33%
40%
47%
43
39
30
7
5
7
4
0
1
1
2
0
11
14
16
-10
1
17
42%
46%
49%
51
47
40
7
8
11
-9
-1
9
RACE
White
Black
339
44
35%
70%
52
14
13
16
-17
56
35%
79%
43
3
7
3
1
4
1
0
14
11
-8
76
40%
89%
52
3
8
8
-12
86
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat
White Democrat
Others
Republican
106
69
148
146
82%
84%
38%
10%
7
6
38
86
11
10
24
4
76
78
0
-76
86%
84%
37%
10%
3
4
22
78
1
1
14
2
0
0
3
1
1
1
2
1
10
11
22
8
84
80
15
-68
91%
89%
47%
12%
5
7
38
84
4
4
16
4
86
81
9
-72
WHITE-SEX
Male
Female
163
176
32%
38%
55
49
12
13
-23
-12
30%
39%
49
36
9
5
1
0
2
0
9
19
-20
3
36%
43%
57
47
7
9
-22
-4
WHITE-AGE
18-39
40-59
60+
75
112
152
35%
29%
40%
52
53
52
13
18
8
-17
-25
-11
25%
29%
44%
38
48
41
6
9
6
1
1
0
3
1
0
27
12
9
-13
-19
3
34%
35%
45%
52
56
49
13
9
6
-18
-21
-3
WHITE-IDEOLOGY
Liberal
Other
Conservative
52
70
217
66%
50%
23%
18
31
67
15
19
10
48
19
-44
66%
57%
20%
9
20
58
6
3
8
0
0
1
1
0
1
18
21
11
57
37
-38
74%
61%
24%
15
29
68
11
10
7
60
32
-44
RE-ELECT
Pryor
Republican
Depends/Don't know
158
189
53
100%
0%
0%
0
100
0
0
0
100
100
-100
0
87%
5%
26%
4
74
9
3
6
16
0
2
4
0
1
2
6
12
43
83
-68
17
96%
6%
39%
4
87
23
0
7
38
92
-81
16
183
184
83%
4%
6
90
11
7
77
-86
84%
3%
1
79
5
6
1
1
1
1
7
9
83
-76
100%
0%
0
100
0
0
100
-100
HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Support
Oppose
Don't know
197
127
76
31%
54%
38%
60
31
42
10
15
20
-29
23
-4
31%
53%
44%
47
26
31
10
3
2
1
1
1
1
2
0
10
16
21
-17
27
13
37%
57%
48%
58
32
39
5
11
13
-21
25
9
KEYSTONE
Support
Oppose
Don't know
280
66
54
32%
65%
45%
57
22
26
10
13
29
-25
43
18
32%
67%
48%
46
19
14
8
4
0
1
2
0
1
2
0
11
7
38
-14
48
35
38%
71%
54%
55
25
25
7
4
21
-17
46
29
EFFECT ON VOTE
More likely to vote Pryor
Less likely to vote Pryor
No difference/Don't know
75
128
77
58%
15%
36%
34
76
49
8
9
16
25
-61
-13
58%
14%
37%
27
62
39
4
13
5
2
1
0
3
1
0
5
9
19
31
-48
-2
65%
19%
43%
30
77
43
5
4
14
35
-58
1
ENERGY ISSUES
Very important
Not very important
154
246
27%
47%
60
39
12
14
-33
8
31%
46%
43
34
7
6
3
0
3
0
14
14
-11
12
34%
53%
55
41
11
6
-21
13
Total
DK
Net
Support
TOTAL
400
49%
32
19
17
70%
16
13
54
280
27%
46
28
-19
Definite voters
308
49%
34
17
16
73%
18
56
226
25%
48
27
-23
MEDIA MARKET
Ft. Smith
Little Rock
Rest
87
206
107
50%
46%
54%
35
34
25
14
20
21
15
13
29
71%
68%
73%
18
16
16
10
16
11
53
52
57
62
140
78
24%
30%
24%
43
46
47
33
24
29
-19
-17
-23
RACE
White
Black
339
44
50%
40%
31
31
18
28
19
9
74%
50%
14
26
12
24
60
24
251
22
22%
82%
49
15
29
3
-27
68
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat
White Democrat
Others
Republican
106
69
148
146
33%
32%
46%
64%
45
48
33
21
23
20
21
14
-12
-16
13
43
54%
52%
72%
80%
28
30
15
10
19
18
14
10
26
23
57
70
57
36
106
117
60%
47%
24%
13%
17
20
40
65
23
32
36
22
43
27
-16
-52
WHITE-SEX
Male
Female
163
176
69%
33%
23
39
8
28
46
-7
85%
64%
12
16
3
20
73
48
138
113
23%
21%
51
47
27
32
-28
-26
WHITE-AGE
18-39
40-59
60+
75
112
152
58%
51%
46%
32
35
28
11
13
26
26
16
17
77%
78%
70%
13
12
16
10
10
14
64
66
54
57
87
106
23%
25%
19%
52
44
51
25
31
30
-29
-19
-33
WHITE-IDEOLOGY
Liberal
Other
Conservative
52
70
217
32%
35%
60%
54
43
23
15
22
18
-22
-8
37
53%
50%
87%
31
23
7
16
27
6
22
27
80
28
35
188
29%
20%
21%
25
35
55
46
45
24
4
-15
-34
RE-ELECT
Pryor
Republican
Depends/Don't know
158
189
53
38%
62%
36%
43
21
36
18
17
28
-5
41
-1
58%
85%
55%
27
8
16
15
8
29
30
77
39
91
160
29
48%
16%
20%
21
61
38
31
23
41
27
-45
-18
183
184
40%
62%
40
22
20
16
0
40
59%
84%
25
9
16
7
33
75
107
154
46%
15%
23
64
31
21
22
-49
HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Support
Oppose
Don't know
197
127
76
100%
0%
0%
0
100
0
0
0
100
100
-100
0
88%
52%
53%
7
38
6
5
10
41
81
15
47
174
67
40
22%
39%
27%
50
37
42
28
24
32
-28
2
-15
KEYSTONE
Support
Oppose
Don't know
280
66
54
62%
20%
18%
24
73
23
14
7
59
38
-53
-5
100%
0%
0%
0
100
0
0
0
100
100
-100
0
280
0
0
27%
0%
0%
46
0
0
28
0
0
-19
0
0
EFFECT ON VOTE
More likely to vote Pryor
Less likely to vote Pryor
No difference/Don't know
75
128
77
51%
68%
63%
35
19
21
14
13
16
17
49
42
100%
100%
100%
0
0
0
0
0
0
100
100
100
75
128
77
100%
0%
0%
0
100
0
0
0
100
100
-100
0
ENERGY ISSUES
Very important
Not very important
154
246
61%
42%
23
37
16
21
37
5
77%
66%
14
18
9
16
63
48
118
162
24%
29%
57
37
18
34
-33
-8