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Books

Not managing
Peter Chapman

the energy transition

Managing the Energy Transition: A Systems Dynamics Search for Alternatives to Oil and Gas R. F. Nail1 248 pages, E13, Ballinger, 1977) $22 (Cambridge, Mass,

Four years after the turmoil of the Yom Kippur war it is now widely recognised that fundamental changes are needed in the systems that provide our industrial nations with energy. Whilst the debate continues between advocates of nuclear power and advocates of alternative technology, this book reports a study, using the systems and Dynamo Language modelling developed by Forrester and Meadows et al at MIT, which claims to put the whole thing in perspective. The book claims to assess the potential magnitude of the United States energy transition problem, and to identify policies that may lead to a smooth transition. The model developed, referred to as COAL 2, is described in meticulous detail with the usual array of model structure diagrams and output graphs of several model runs. But, for a study which, in the language of systems analysis and modelling, claims so much, it is remarkably lacking in concept, structure, and detail. Questionable assumptions

balance for the USA, and since the only substitutes for domestic oil and gas are either imports or synthetic products derived from coal it is hardly surprising that the energy transition is accomodated by imports and synthetics. A crude financial model is also employed which includes patterns of investment and a postulated pricedemand relationship. However the level of aggregation is so large that it misses most of the interesting questions. There is also an interesting fixed IO-year time lag in the demand elasticity: how can that elasticity be assessed only 4 years after a major price change ? No alternative The most serious omissions in the study flow from the choice of time interval and level of aggregation. The point is that oil and gas provide very cheap methods for accommodating the spatial and temporal distributions in demand, by providing cheaply transported and stored fuels. A decline in the supply of these fuels will require new methods for accommodating these essential system functions. is it reasonable to For example, assume, as the author does, an increase in market share for electricity with no changes in system load factors? The author also quite explicitly ignores any potential contribution from solar, tidal, wind, or wave energy-all of which emphasise the importance of hourly energy balances, not annual balances. This means that the subtitle of the book, a system dynamics search for alternatives to oil and gas, could not be further from the truth. The only alternative found by the author is more oil and gas !

In practice the model reflects the type of energy problem discussed in the media, namely the problem of finding a substitute source of primary fuel when oil and gas availability declines. Since the model is based on an annual energy
Peter Chapman is the Director of the Energy Research Group at the Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UK.

FUTURES

April 1978