Binomial Distribution Tutorial

Definition: The Binomial Distribution is one of the discrete probability distribution. It is used when there are exactly two mutually exclusive outcomes of a trial. These outcomes are appropriately labeled Success and Failure. The Binomial Distribution is used to obtain the probability of observing r successes in n trials, with the probability of success on a single trial denoted by p. Formula: P( ! r" ! n#r p r ($%p"n%r where, n ! &umber of events r ! &umber of successful events. p ! Probability of success on a single trial. n#r ! ( n' ( (n%r"' " ( r' $%p ! Probability of failure. Example) Toss a coin for $* times. +hat is the probability of getting exactly , heads.

-tep $) .ere, &umber of trials n ! $* &umber of success r ! , since we define getting a head as success Probability of success on any single trial p ! /.0 -tep *) To #alculate n#r formula is used. n#r ! ( n' ( (n%r"' " ( r' ! ( $*' ( ($*%,"' " ( ,' ! ( $*' ( 0' " ( ,' ! ( 1,2//$3// ( $*/ " ( 0/1/ ! ( 422$35/ ( 0/1/ " ! ,2* -tep 4) 6ind pr. pr ! /.0, ! /.//,5$*0 -tep 1) To 6ind ($%p"n%r #alculate $%p and n%r. $%p ! $%/.0 ! /.0 n%r ! $*%, ! 0 -tep 0) 6ind ($%p"n%r.

! /.00 ! /./4$*0 -tep 3) -olve P( ! r" ! n#r p r ($%p"n%r ! ,2* 7 /.//,5$*0 7 /./4$*0 ! /.$244024,0

The probability of getting exactly , heads is /.$2 8888888888888888888888888888888888888888888888

The Poisson distribution is a discrete distribution. It is often used as a model for the number of events (such as the number of telephone calls at a business, number of customers in waiting lines, number of defects in a given surface area, airplane arrivals, or the number of accidents at an intersection) in a specific time period. It is also useful in ecological studies, e.g., to model the number of prairie dogs found in a square mile of prairie. The major difference between Poisson and Binomial distributions is that the Poisson does not have a fi ed number of trials. Instead, it uses the fi ed interval of time or space in which the number of successes is recorded.

Parameters) The mean is . The variance is .

is the parameter which indicates the average number of events in the given time interval.

Ex.1. On an average Friday, a waitress gets no tip from t"at s"e will get no tip from # !ustomers t"is Friday.

!ustomers. Find t"e probability

The waitress averages ! customers that leave no tip on "rida#s$ $ % !. &andom 'ariable $ The number of customers that leave her no tip this "rida#. (e are interested in P() % *).

Ex. % During a typi!al football game, a !oa!" !an expe!t &.% in'uries. Find t"e probability t"at t"e team will "ave at most 1 in'ury in t"is game. + coach can e pect ,.- injuries $ $ % ,.-. &andom 'ariable $ The number of injuries the team has in this game. (e are interested in .

Ex. 3. A small life insurance company has determined that on the avera e it receives ! death claims per day. Find the pro"a"ility that the company receives at least seven death claims on a randomly selected day.

P(x . ," % $ / P(x 0 3" % /.42432,

Ex. #. The num"er of traffic accidents that occurs on a particular stretch of road durin a month follo$s a Poisson distri"ution $ith a mean of %.#. Find the pro"a"ility that less than t$o accidents $ill occur on this stretch of road durin a randomly selected month.

P(x 1 *" % P(x % /" 2 P(x % $" % /.///53/

Poisson distri"ution examples

$. The number of road construction pro9ects that ta:e place at any one time in a certain city follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 4. 6ind the probability that exactly five road construction pro9ects are currently ta:ing place in this city. (/.$//5$2"

*. The number of road construction pro9ects that ta:e place at any one time in a certain city follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of ,. 6ind the probability that more than four road construction pro9ects are currently ta:ing place in the city. (/.5*,//5"

4. The number of traffic accidents that occur on a particular stretch of road during a month follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of ,.3. 6ind the probability that less than three accidents will occur next month on this stretch of road. (/./$5,0,"

1. The number of traffic accidents that occur on a particular stretch of road during a month follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of ,. 6ind the probability of observing exactly three accidents on this stretch of road next month. (/./0*$*2"

0. The number of traffic accidents that occur on a particular stretch of road during a month follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 3.5. 6ind the probability that the next two months will both result in four accidents each occurring on this stretch of road. (/.//2513" 3. -uppose the number of babies born during an 5/hour shift at a hospital;s maternity wing follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 3 an hour. 6ind the probability that five babies are born during a particular $/hour period in this maternity wing. (/.$3/3*4"

,. The university policy department must write, on average, five tic:ets per day to :eep department revenues at budgeted levels. -uppose the number of tic:ets written per day follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 5.5 tic:ets per day. 6ind the probability that less than six tic:ets are written on a randomly selected day from this distribution. (/.$*545,"

5. The number of goals scored at -tate #ollege hoc:ey games follows a Poisson distribution with a mean of 4 goals per game. 6ind the probability that each of four randomly selected -tate #ollege hoc:ey games resulted in six goals being scored. (./////013"