The Mathematics of Magic: The Gathering

A study in probability, statistics, strategy, and game theory

By Jon Prywes

May-June 1999

Here are some of Jon Prywes' Magic accomplishments: He wrote a Magic magazine online called he !ibrary o" !eng, "rom 199# to 199$% He wrote three articles "or &crye Magazine in 199' and 199$% He started a Magic club at his high school in 199$, which ran through 1999% He played in se(eral semi-competiti(e tournaments including the 1999 Junior &uper &eries )astern *i(isional% He wrote numerous articles "or he Magic *o+o ,"eatured on this page-% He wrote a paper about the mathematical components o" Magic in 1999 ,also "eatured on this page-% He has done hundreds o" Magic eBay auctions% He wor.ed at a day camp teaching Magic strategy to .ids in the summer o" 1999

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Table of Contents
Introduction to Magic: The Gathering A Mathematical 1ntroduction22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222223 A *escription o" the 4ame222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222225 A &ample 4ame222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222# 6hy )7perience 8ounts222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222$ Two Person Game Theory 6hat *oes 1t Mean9222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222: he Basic 8oncepts22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222229 wo-Person 4ame heory and Magic; he 4athering2222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222211 Probability Probability and Magic; he 4athering 2222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222215 &hu""ling and <andomization 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222221# *rawing 8ards =rom a *ec.2222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222221# he A(erage 4ame 222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222221$ 8hance >ersus &.ill 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222219 !ec"building *ec.building and Magic; he 4athering 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222220? *ec. Archetypes and *ec. &trategy 2222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222201 *ec. 8omparison and 6inning <atios 222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222200 8ard )""iciency and <esource Management 222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222220# The #ig Game Probability, &tatistics, 4ame heory, and Magic222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222220' Math and the A(erage Player 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222220$ Personal Applications 22222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222220:

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Introduction to Magic: The Gathering

$ Mathematical Introduction
Magic; he 4athering is a game which some ta.e seriously, and others lightly2 Many understand it, e(en more do not2 &ome play it nonstop and others ne(er see the point2 Personally, 1 thin. it is a great game2 @nly those who actually play the game can truly understand how wonder"ul it is2 Most people who write it o"" as pointless do not see the mechanics o" the game that ma.e it simple, yet comple72 1n its "i(e years o" e7istence, the crowd that Magic has drawn can alone show how great the game really is2 @n the wee.end o" May 1 and 0 1 tra(eled with some "riends to Pro our; Aew Bor. in &ecaucus, Aew Jersey2 Hundreds o" people were gathered inside the Meadowlands )7position 8enter +ust to play the game they lo(e2 he Pro our is no day in the par.% it is a great competition "or the mind2 Ce( 4urwitz, a +unior at &carsdale High &chool, along with mysel", had both Duali"ied "or the Junior &uper &eries e(ent2 &i7ty-"our players age se(enteen and under Duali"y "or the J&& at challenge tournaments held during the winter2 6e had playtested "or this tournament a "airly lengthy amount, yet 1 was still s.eptical2 As it turned out, 1 went 1-3 and dropped out2 Ce( went ?-3 and dropped2 A record o" at least "our wins was necessary to ma.e the top eight, in order to play at the J&& 8hampionships where E0#?,??? in scholarship money is awarded2 6e tried, but what was it that .ept us "rom winning9 6hat is it that .eeps e(ery Magic player "rom winning all the time9 6hat .eeps e(en the most s.illed o" players at bay "rom winning e(ery single game9 1t is a word called chance2 8hance is what ma.es Magic di""erent "rom many other classic games2 6hen one plays 8hess, he gets to see all the pieces2 Both players ha(e eight pawns and eight other pieces, either white or blac.2 )(ery piece mo(ed is public in"ormation, and nothing is held secret2 8hess is ruled by complete s.ill2 Aothing random can possibly happen2 Magic, on the other hand, adds a new element2 Aot only are each personFs playing materials o"ten di""erent or (aried ,the dec.s-, but randomness e7ists in this game2 @ne starts the game by randomizing his dec. o" si7ty or more cards, then drawing se(en2 He will de"initely not draw the same se(en cards in e(ery opening handG >ariety is what ma.es this game di""erent than 8hess2 here are two elements o" (ariety in(ol(ed; *ec. construction and random card draws2 *ec. construction is part o" what go(erns this element o" (ariety2 he card draws are simply a result o" the dec. construction, as well as any cards played during the game which may alter the contents o" what is remaining in the dec. ,"or e7ample, remo(ing cards "rom the dec.-2 he *uelistsF 8on(ocation 1nternational ,*81- is the authority go(erning sanctioned tournaments2 Although many players do not participate in tournaments, the *81Fs dec.building guidelines pro(ide "or a "air game2 &ome cards were printed be"ore the research and de(elopment team realized they were o(erpowered2 Hence, the cards are banned "rom dec. construction2 &ome cards are only restricted, meaning only one is allowed in a dec.2 Any card that is not banned or restricted is allowed up to "our copies per dec.2 A player has to thin., Hhow many copies o" a card do 1 want in my dec.9 @ne, two, three, or "our9I 1" he puts "our copies in, he is li.ely to draw one (ery soon2 1" he only uses one, his chances o" drawing it are slim2 Maybe ha(ing multiple copies is redundant and that is the reason "or using "ewer2 1" he uses three copies o" a card, then what will be his chances o" drawing one by turn si79 Probability po.es its nose up into the game now2 1n 8hess, there is no probability, other than thin.ing about the number o" possible mo(es2 Howe(er, a playerFs play style is more li.ely to go(ern how he plays the game o" 8hess than probability will2 =or all intents and purposes, there is no probability in 8hess2 Probability goes hand in hand with chance and random e(ents2 1t is the chance that an e(ent will occur, or not occur2 6ill your ad(ersary draw the card he needs to win the game this turn9 Ae7t turn9 6ithin "i(e turns9 8alculating the chances can help a player decide whether to play de"ensi(ely and anticipate the other person drawing their win card, or play aggressi(ely and assume that the card will not be drawn by the other player2 &ome o" the other math in(ol(ed in the game is less ob(ious2 he Hchance (ersus s.illI Duestion is a (ery hot topic among high-le(el players2 How much o" playing a gi(en dec. is based on s.ill, and how much on chance9 he ob(ious solution would be to ta.e a "airly ine7perienced player and gi(e him one dec., and gi(e an e7perienced player the other2 he e7perienced player will win with either dec. i" there is complete s.ill in(ol(ed2 1" the dec. is straight"orward to the point that there are no decisions to be made, and it beats the other dec. almost automatically, then it is possible the e7pert will lose games2 1n Magic, though, there are always at least some thought"ul decisions to ma.e2 he chance o" getting paired against a superior dec. in a tournament does not mean an automatic loss2 1" your s.ill is lower to that o" the superior dec. your chances may be slim, but i" your s.ill is higher than your chances become much greater2

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&o then, what constitutes a superior dec.9 6hat dec.building techniDues are necessary "or one to ma.e a dec. that wins more o"ten than a dec. which is not as good9 How does one determine which card selections will guarantee a "lawless road to (ictory9 Juestions li.e these are what e(ery player must try to answer when attempting to create the Hper"ectI dec.2 @" course, 1 will aim to pro(e that the Hper"ectI dec. does not e7ist2 !aws o" game theory are an in(aluable aid in pro(ing this2 6hile game theory is a (ery conceptual science, its laws (ery well do apply to games such as Magic2 6hile .nowledge o" these laws will not ma.e one a Pro our Player, they can help one who is trying to understand the game ha(e an easier time ma.ing decisions2 4ame theory is simply a series o" laws regulating how one goes about ma.ing decisions in a situation2 A HgameI in game theory is not necessarily always a game as de"ined in common tal., but game theory certainly has many game applications2 hrough the laws o" probability and game theory, along with statistical analysis and actual e7periments, 1 will be wor.ing on coming up with conclusions that can ta.e these laws and correlate them to the game o" Magic2 =irst and "oremost, 1 will be e7plaining the basic concepts o" game, in order "or the reader who is unacDuainted with Magic to "amiliarize himsel" with these terms2 1n describing the game, 1 will attempt not to reiterate the entire ruleboo., though 1 will summarize the basics o" how the game is played2 Kpon completion o" these details, 1 will begin my outline o" game theory and begin on relating the math and game theory to its Magic applications2 1 will pro(ide pro"iles o" many o" the people who 1 consult with as part o" my pro+ect2 1 will be discussing a sur(ey 1 conducted in order to determine how much math Magic players recognize as part o" the game2 his entire report will "ollow closely the outline gi(en in my pro+ect description2

$ !escription of the Game

he ob+ect o" Magic is simple2 Bou start with 0? li"e points, and when they are reduced to ?, the game is o(er and the other person wins2 Bou and another person both ha(e a dec. o" si7ty or more Magic cards, which are used in playing the game2 he cards can be "rom a (ariety o" di""erent sets, with ,"or the most part- no more than "our o" any one card2 he players alternate in ta.ing turns2 )ach turn is a seDuence o" e(ents that in(ol(e drawing a card, putting cards into play, Hattac.ingI the other player ,using cards that represent creatures- and then discarding i" necessary2 he basic resource in Magic is called mana2 Mana comes "rom a Polynesian word meaning energy2 Mana let you bring certain cards into play, and use abilities on cards already in play2 &ome cards reDuire more mana to use than others do2 here are "i(e di""erent colors o" mana in the game, each representing a separate "orce2 he "orces represented are typical o" an ad(enture gaming genre; 6hite mana represents the powers o" good2 Blue mana is "or the powers o" the mind2 Blac. mana is "or the powers o" e(il2 <ed mana is "or the powers o" destruction and chaos2 4reen mana is "or the powers o" nature and wildli"e2 )ach colorFs theme is represented in the cards o" that color2 hus a well-.nown ad(enture theme is presented in the cards, gi(ing players something more than +ust a strategy game2 1t is a game with a theme, with the strategy hiding in the bac.ground "or the more ad(anced players to ta.e notice o"2 1n addition, some cards do not ha(e colors% these cards are either land ,which produce mana-, or arti"acts ,which are colorless and can be played with any .ind o" mana-2 All cards in the game are re"erred to as HspellsI "or game purposes, e7cept "or land2 !ands are not spells and are not HcastI2 hey are simply placed into play2 1 will o"ten use terms interchangeably, howe(er2 Another concept that the player must understand is the word Htap2I o tap a card is to rotate it sideways, indicating that its powers ha(e been used2 his can be used to represent an attac.ing creature, a used arti"act, or a land drawn "or mana2 At the beginning o" each turn you untap all your cards, so you e""ecti(ely can use their powers once each turn ,and/or during your opponentFs turn-2 A spellFs casting cost is the amount o" mana you need to use in order to play it2 1t is located in the top right corner o" the card2 1" a cardFs casting cost is 0<, "or instance, that means that you must spend one red mana and 0 o" any color to play it2 8asting cost will be re"erred to a lot so this is (ery important to understand2 he colored portion is speci"ic, and the numbered portion is generic, and can be paid using any color mana2 here are di""erent types o" cards in the game; !and, Arti"acts, 8reatures, )nchantments, &orceries, and 1nstants2 All cards come in "i(e di""erent colors e7cept "or lands and arti"acts2 !ands are a special .ind o" card% you can play one each turn2 !ands can be tapped "or mana, which is used to play any o" the other .inds o" cards2 Arti"acts are colorless, which means you can use any .ind o" mana to play them2 hey may let you do anything "rom draw cards to a""ect cards in play2 &ome arti"acts are also creatures2 8reatures can be used to do damage to your opponent ,thus reducing his li"e total "rom 0? to ?-2 Howe(er, i" your opponent has creatures o" his own out, he can use them to bloc. yours2 )nchantments are cards played on an e7isting card, which modi"y what the card does, usually2 An e7ample would be an )nchant 8reature card, which

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would be played on a creature2 1t might ma.e the creature wea.er, or stronger2 &ome enchantments are not played on other cards, and ha(e a global e""ect on the game2 &orceries and instants cause a one-time e""ect on the game2 &orceries can only be played during your turn% instants can be played anytime2 At the beginning o" the game each player shu""les his dec.2 he players roll a die or "lip a coin to determine who chooses who goes "irst, then each draws se(en cards2 he player who chooses to go "irst does not draw a card on his "irst turn2 he seDuence o" a turn is as "ollows; Kntap phase; Kntap all cards you control2 his means to rotate them so they are all "acing upward and not rotated ,tapped-2 Kp.eep phase; his is a maintenance phase2 &ome cards will ma.e you do an e""ect during this phase, such as pay mana to .eep the card in play, "or e7ample2 *raw phase; *raw a card2 Main phase; Bou can do these things, in any order; a2 Put one land into play b2 *eclare one attac. c2 Play spells2 Bou can play spells be"ore or a"ter your attac., as well as both2 Aote that all cards ,e7cept "or instants- can only be played on your turn during the main phase2 *iscard phase; *iscard down to se(en cards2 8leanup phase; Any e""ect that lasts until Hend o" turnI wears o"" now2 Any damage on a creature, which does not destroy it, wears o"" as well2 he attac. wor.s li.e this; Bou choose any untapped creatures you control that you ha(e had in play at least one turn, and tap them2 Bour opponent either bloc.s them or ta.es damage eDual to their power2 1" he bloc.s, both creatures deal damage to each other eDual to their power2 A creature has a pair o" numbers in the bottom right corner2 hese are its power and toughness2 6hen a creature deals damage, it deals damage eDual to its power2 6hen it recei(es, the damage is applied to its toughness2 1" it ta.es damage eDual to or greater than its toughness it will be buried2 hat means it will be played in a pile ne7t to your draw pile called your discard pile2 =or e7ample, a 4iant &pider has a power and toughness o" 0/52 1t deals 0 damage to a creature bloc.ing or bloc.ed by it, and i" unbloc.ed during an attac., deals 0 to the player it attac.ed2 1" it ta.es 5 damage during one turn, it will be placed in its controllerFs discard pile2 he game gets a lot more comple7 than this with the "ramewor. o" the rules, but these are the basics2 6hat the cards do is another story2 here are a wide (ariety o" abilities in Magic, and this summary is +ust the "oundation2 o "ully understand the game, one must see it being played2 @therwise the rules are hard to ma.e sense out o"2 1t may seem daunting at "irst, but a"ter many games, it becomes automatic2 he strategy is immense, and the game lea(es players with many decisions to ma.e2 hese decisions are what ma.e the game the strategic tas. it is2

$ %ample Game
Perhaps, at this point, one who is un"amiliar with the game still may be con"used2 A sample game can at least demonstrate the "low o" the game and gi(e a general idea2 Howe(er, to one who is already "amiliar with Magic, this will be super"luous2 1 will be introducing new terms and concepts as the game progresses2 1n this e7ample 1 will be playing a dec. which is red and has many arti"acts2 My pro(erbial ad(ersary will be using a green dec. with some white cards2 his is based on a game 1 played online using Apprentice, a program that allows the online play o" Magic through a graphical user inter"ace2 he li"e total score will be presented in the notation L/B, where L is my score and B the other personFs2 8ards will be "ootnoted in the notation; 8ard type, casting cost2 8ard te7t2 Power/ oughness2 8olored mana symbols will be represented by B "or blac., K "or blue, 4 "or green, < "or red, and 6 "or white2 At the beginning o" the game, both players shu""le their dec.s and draw se(en cards2 1 will win coin "lip and decide to go "irst2

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urn 1 ,Me-; &.ip "irst draw because o" play-draw rule ,whoe(er goes "irst s.ips his "irst draw phase to cancel out the ad(antage o" getting to play "irst-2 Play Mountain&'(2 ap Mountain to play >oltaic Mey&)(2 *eclare end o" turn2 # cards in hand2 ,0?/0?urn 1 ,@pp-; *raw a card2 Play =orest&*(2 ap =orest to play )l(ish !yrist &+(2 *eclare end o" turn2 ' cards in hand2 ,0?/0?urn 0 ,Me-; Kntap Mountain2 *raw a card2 Play Mountain2 ap two Mountains to play 4rim Monolith&,(2 Playing this card in con+unction with the >oltaic Mey allows "or enhanced mana production, as the Mey can be used to untap the Monolith2 *eclare end o" turn2 5 cards in hand2 ,0?/0?urn 0 ,@pp-; Kntap =orest2 *raw a card2 Play Brushland&-(2 ap =orest and Brushland to play Priest o" itania&.(2 Attac. with )l(ish !yrist "or 1 damage2 *eclare end o" turn2 # cards in hand2 ,19/0?urn 3 ,Me-; Kntap2 ,Kntap all cards which donFt say otherwise, such as 4rim Monolith which says it does not untap2 Howe(er, it can be untapped in other methods2 =or instance, it says you can pay 5 mana at any time to untap it2 he >oltaic Mey allows you to pay a mana and tap it to untap any arti"act in play, so that, too, can be used to untap the Monolith2 Howe(er, it is not tapped right now so that is not a problem2- *raw a card2 Play Mountain2 ap 3 mountains to cast &tone <ain&/( on opponentFs =orest2 =or 0 mana o" any color and one that red, this will ma.e my opponent lose a land2 his can be bene"icial because by denying the opponent mana, he cannot play as many cards2 3 cards in hand2 *eclare end o" turn2 ,19/0?urn 3 ,@pp-; Kntap2 *raw a card2 Play another =orest2 Attac. with )l(ish !yrist, and during the attac., tap the =orest "or a green mana, and the Brushland "or a generic mana2 he Priest o" itania will yield 0 green mana, since there are 0 )l(es in play, "or a total o" 5 mana2 He then plays Might o" @a.s&0( on the attac.ing !yrist2 *ealing $ e7tra damage "or 5 mana is a (ery large bene"it2 !ater on 1 will be analyzing card utility, but "or now 1 will +ust stic. to the basics2 Ma.ing the creature an :/: until end o" turn, it deals : damage to me2 5 cards in hand2 ,11/0?urn 5 ,Me-; Kntap2 *raw a card2 <ight now 1 am worried that my opponent has more Might o" @a.s at his disposal so 1 want to ma.e sure he cannot use them2 1 .now that there can be anywhere "rom ? to 3 more le"t in his dec., and since he has ta.en 3 turns he has e7hausted 1? cards "rom his dec.2 6ith #? cards le"t and 5 in his hand, what are the chances he will ha(e one in his hand a"ter drawing a card ne7t turn9 his is yet another Duestion 1 will be e7ploring2 =or now, howe(er, assume 1 am mathematically unintelligent and do not .now2 My main goal will be to get rid o" his creatures so 1 can stop ta.ing damage2 1 tap the Monolith "or 3 mana2 1 use one with the Mey to untap the Monolith, and tap it again2 1 tap all my Mountains2 1 now ha(e 9 mana, 5 o" which is red2 1 use 1 red and 3 generic to play A(alanche <iders&'1(2 1 destroy my opponentFs lone =orest again2 1 then play 6asteland&''(2 1 decide 1 want to destroy my opponentFs Brushland with my 6asteland, lea(ing him with no land2 *oing the math, 1 now ha(e # mana remaining, 3 o" which are red2 1 then cast <olling hunder&')(2 &ince it has L, 1 decide to pay 0 "or L with two generic mana2 1 do one damage to the )l(ish !yrist and one the Priest o" itania2 My opponent no longer has any cards in play, and 1 use the remaining mana to play a 8ursed &croll ,an arti"act that can tap to deal damage-2 1 attac. with the <iders, dealing 0 damage2 1 am at a lower li"e then my opponent, and ha(e "ewer cards in hand% howe(er, 1 am in a position to win this game right now2 he game may not be technically o(er yet, but there is little my opponent can do to compensate "or the ad(antage 1 ha(e gained2 ,11/1:1 am sure the nontechnical reader is con"used at this point about what has been going on2 All these di""erent game mechanics may seem aw"ully con"using2 Howe(er, this is +ust a sampling o" how comple7 this game is2 Bet a"ter playing many games it becomes pretty basic2 he "low o" the game is basically untap, draw, attac., play cards, and say you are done2 6ith a "ew di""erent concepts added here and there, that is how the game is played2 hese di""erent concepts and card mechanics add the element o" decision ma.ing to the game2 he process o" ma.ing these decisions is what contributes to the role o" mathematical reasoning and strategy behind the cards2

2ootnotes: Mountain; !and2 ap "or one red mana2 >oltaic Mey; Arti"act, 12 1, ap; Kntap target arti"act2 =orest; !and2 ap "or one green mana2 )l(ish !yrist; 8reature - )l", 42 4, ap; &acri"ice )l(ish !yrist to *estroy target enchantment2 1/12 ,&acri"icing a card simply means placing it in your discard pile2 he term simply implies that it is (oluntary-2

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4rim Monolith; Arti"act, 02 ap "or 3 generic mana2 *oes not untap normally, and costs 5 to untap any other time2 ,4eneric mana does not ha(e color% they may only be used to play cards or part o" cards not reDuiring colored mana2 Aote that colored mana is downwardly compatible% it may be used to play arti"acts and such-2 Brushland; !and2 ap "or one green or white mana and ta.e a point o" damage, or tap "or a generic mana2 Priest o" itania; 8reature N )l", 42 ap "or a green mana "or e(ery )l" in play2 1/12 &tone <ain; &orcery, 0<2 *estroy target land2 Might o" @a.s; 1nstant, 342 arget creature gets O$/O$ until end o" turn2A(alanche <iders; 8reature2 Pay the casting cost during your ne7t up.eep or bury this card ,re"erred to as HechoI-2 6hen A(alanche <iders comes into play, destroy target land2 A(alanche <iders can attac. the turn it comes into play2 0/02 6asteland; !and2 ap "or one colorless mana, or tap and sacri"ice to destroy a nonbasic land2 ,Aonbasic means it is not one o" the "i(e basic land types; =orest, Mountain, 1sland, &wamp, and Plains2 Basic lands are the only cards not limited to "our per dec.2<olling hunder; &orcery, L<<2 *i(ide L damage among any number o" creatures and/or players2

3hy 45perience Counts

How much o" a role in the game does e7perience ma.e9 6hat is it that pre(ents someone who +ust pic.ed up a dec. o" Magic cards the other day "rom being a better player than someone who is a (eteran at the game is9 6hat are the parts o" the game that reDuire so much learning9 he answers to this Duestion can be studied by watching players o" all di""erent le(els o" e7perience play the game2 1 o"ten play the game with players o" widely (arying e7perience2 6hile playing, 1 see the "actors that transcend the e7perienced player "rom the ine7perienced player2 1 spent the greater part o" &unday, May 1' in !ong 1sland with my cousin and "our o" his "riends2 Being around the age o" twel(e, they are "airly new to the game and ha(e not been playing as long as some o" the older people with whom 1 play with more regularly2 Jeremy Morsh, my cousin, is twel(e years old and started playing the game around last spring2 Ha(ing played around one year, he has begun to pic. up some o" the basic concepts behind the game2 Howe(er, there are many things that he has not yet pic.ed up2 he ine7perienced player is o"ten hasty and does not wait until the right time to use the resources he has a(ailable2 =or instance, a !ightning Bolt&'( drawn by this .ind o" player will be immediately used2 1" his opponent has no creatures it will be aimed at the opponent, ta.ing away 3 li"e points2 he more e7perienced player would sa(e this card "or later on when he may need it more2 )(en still, i" the opponent had a creature in play, perhaps there may be a better creature to sa(e the Bolt "or2 Being able to use resources properly is a .ey part o" the game2 Being able to recognize what ma.es a card playable is another s.ill that is notable o" an e7perienced player2 here are many cards in the game which newer players see as HgodlyI while e7perienced players will see are not e""ecti(e2 &uch cards may include large creatures2 8reatures which are as big as 9/9 or 1?/1? appeal to the newer player, because o" the large size2 Howe(er, creature cards li.e these reDuire lots o" resources to bring out, and the e7perienced player is sure to ha(e a card in his dec. to deal with this on the spot2 8ounterspell&)( is an instant which lets you pay two mana to negate the e""ect o" any card being played ,e7cept a land, because lands do not count as spells-2 he ine7perienced player uses all o" his resources into bringing one o" these large creatures into play, only to ha(e it countered2 6hen a spell is countered it is placed directly into the discard pile2 here are se(eral (ariations o" the 8ounterspell card, which are (ery common-use blue cards because they let the player control the game by denying the opponent spells2 Proper uses o" spells that counter other spells are another mar. o" e7perience2 8ards li.e 8ounterspell, Mana !ea. &*(, =orbid&+(, *ismiss&,( and other cards li.e those reDuire some s.ill2 *eciding which spells to counter can be (ery crucial to the outcome o" the game2 A (ery ine7perienced player will use countermagic at the "irst opportunity2 A slightly more e7perienced player will wait but still o"ten use it on the wrong opposing spell2 he e7perienced player .nows what spells are opposing threats, and can control the game well2 !earning which spells are threats comes with time2 here is no gi(en "ormula which can determine which spells a player should counter% only within the game can situations arise which the player has choices to ma.e within the situation2 How a player reacts to these situations is what determines his le(el o" e7perience2 Perhaps my most worthy opponent ,and ad(ersary- is Ce( 4urwitz2 8urrently a +unior, he has been playing "or about the same amount o" time as mysel"2 =our years o" e7perience ha(e taught him (ery good dec.building and playing s.ills2 Here is where the e7ample o" proper use o" countering spells comes in handy2 6hen playing against Ce(, he will almost always ha(e a card to deal with an opposing threat2 He .nows to sa(e his 8ounterspell or =orbid "or the biggest threats2

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1t will always seem that Ce( has countermagic because when 1 am hoping he does not, he will, simply because he .nows what to sa(e it "or2 1" 1 ha(e a .ey card in my dec., he will wait until 1 play it be"ore using his countermagic2 How he determines what are the biggest threats is another comple7ity2 =irst, i" he .nows what cards his opponent has in his dec., he can .now what to sa(e his countermagic "or2 He will ha(e other ways o" dealing with the smaller, lesser threats2 Being able to deal with an opposing situation and presenting an e""ecti(e opposition yoursel" is what lets you win the game2 Ce( is pretty good at this2 Both playing and dec.building s.ills both de(elop o(er time2 &ome players are better players than dec.builders, and (ice (ersa2 &ome people ha(e di""erent playing styles2 All o" these "actors are what comprise the many aspects o" many di""erent Magic players2 )ach player has indi(idual characteristics2 6hile one may be able to build a great dec., he may not be able to play it to its "ull capacity2 He may stumble and ma.e wrong decisions within the game2 his could mean he may counter the wrong spells, use remo(al spells such as &words to Plowshares&-( ine""iciently, or use the wrong mana in playing a spell2 Ksing a &word on the "irst creature an opponent plays may be the wrong mo(e2 @r rather, it may be the right mo(e in a gi(en situation2 A player needs to determine this2 Perhaps the creature played was a Birds o" Paradise &.(2 By using the &words on this opposing card, the opponentFs mana production will be slowed down2 8on(ersely, the opponent might ha(e better targets "or the &words2 he player has to decide a "ew things2 6ill 1 be able to deal with any other creatures i" 1 waste this remo(al on the Birds9 6ill the ad(antage 1 gain by remo(ing the Birds now be worth my using this spell right now9 he player has to decide whether it is an e""ecti(e strategy based on the resources in his hand and dec. and the resources he thin.s his opponent has2 Juestions such as these will help him come to a conclusion about whether to play the card now or wait until later2 &imply put, to play oneFs cards right is the way to win2 Ma.ing the right decision is o"ten easier said than done, though2 )(en the best o" players "ace tough decisions2 1s there always a best strategy in this game9 1n answering a Duestion such as that, one can only turn to the logic o" game theory2

2ootnotes: !ightning Bolt; 1nstant, <2 arget player or creature ta.es 3 damage2 8ounterspell; 1nstant, KK2 8ounter target spell2 Mana !ea.2 1nstant, 1K2 8ounter target spell unless its caster pays 3 mana2 =orbid2 1nstant, 1KK2 8ounter target spell2 Bou can discard two cards to put =orbid bac. into your hand while playing it ,re"erred to as Hbuybac.I-2 *ismiss; 1nstant, 0KK2 8ounter target spell and draw a card2 &words to Plowshares; 1nstant, 62 <emo(e target creature "rom the game and its controller gains li"e eDual to its power2 Birds o" Paradise; 8reature, 42 ap "or one mana o" any color2 ?/1, =lying ,cannot be bloc.ed e7cept by creatures with "lying-2

Two Person Game Theory:

3hat !oes It Mean6
4ame theory is a branch o" mathematics which has been e7plored "airly recently within the century2 1t is not completely a mathematical science, howe(er2 1nstead, it dictates what "actors comprise strategies2 1t is to games o" strategy what probability is to games o" chance2 8onseDuently, a game such as Magic, which relies on both strategy and chance, has both game theory and probability applications2 Most o"ten instead o" determining the best possible strategy, game theory only e7ists to determine the e7istence o" a best possible strategy2 Most games are too comple7 to be charted to the point where a best possible strategy can be determined2 hat is what ma.es game theory a mostly theoretical area o" study2 Ae(ertheless, the ideas presented in game theory are use"ul in outlining what the best decision ma.ing techniDues are in certain situations2 here are se(eral branches and classi"ications o" game theory2 A HgameI can be one player, two players, or A-players, where A is a positi(e integer greater than two2 here are games o" per"ect in"ormation where all game data is presented to all players, such as in chess, tic-tac-toe, and Monopoly2 hen there are games o" imper"ect in"ormation where each player does not get to see all the game data2 Magic and po.er "all into this category, as there is an element o" chance2 Howe(er, there is not always chance in a game o" imper"ect in"ormation2 =or instance, ta.e &tratego, a popular board game in which each o" the two players arrange "orty pieces on their side o" an eight-by-eight grid, with each pieceFs ran. "acing only himsel"2 )ach player does not see the other playerFs piecesF ran.s2 Because this in"ormation is withheld "rom the other player, &tratego is a two-player game o" imper"ect in"ormation2

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Additionally, a game such as &tratego is classi"ied is a zero-sum game2 A zero-sum game is one where all payo""s add up to zero2 1n this instance, a loss is simply a negati(e win, which when added together, combine to zero2 Po.er is also a zero-sum game2 )(en when not played "or money or some sta.es, there be one clear winner in po.er2 6hen played with A-players a loss can simply be accounted "or as a negati(e "raction o" a win ,i2e2 -1/0 i" there are three players, because two losses and one win add up to ?-2 6hen played "or sta.es, the total money a player earns is eDual in magnitude and opposite in sign to the money the other players lose2 All the money totaled will always eDual the same amount, and the total change in money won between all the players combined will always add up to zero2 here"ore po.er is an A-player zero-sum game o" imper"ect in"ormation2 A non-zero-sum game can be more o" a real-li"e application, where negotiation helps two people both succeed2 <emember that the de"inition o" HgameI in game theory is Duite di""erent than we percei(e it2 Any situation with two or more people reDuiring decision ma.ing can be classi"ied as a game2 Perhaps two people, each independently in business, want to open a chain "ast "ood restaurant in the same town, both o" which ser(e similar items2 1" they compete, one may stri.e it rich and the other may go bro.e2 1" they wor. together, they will both do su""iciently but neither will be e7ceptionally rich2 he decisions the two people ma.e can be described in detail by using basic game theory concepts2

The #asic Concepts

4ame theory is about choices2 1n a game such as Ad(anced *ungeons and *ragons, there may be in"initely many choices2 &uch a game is not applicable to the laws o" game theory2 A game such as chess, chec.ers, or tic-tac-toe can be analyzed by game theory2 4ame theory is concerned not with games o" imagination, but o" games o" strategy2 Just as laws o" probability prescribe how games o" complete chance operate, laws o" game theory apply to games o" strategy2 6hile game theory cannot o"ten determine the best possible strategy, it can determine whether there one e7ists2 wo ideas that can outline games are the game tree and the game matri72 A game tree is a diagram o" possible choices that can outline e(ery single possibility within the game2 1n a game o" roc.-paper-scissors, there are nine possible outcomes2 Player A can choose roc., paper, or scissors2 Player B has the same set o" choices2 8harted as a game tree, this is how the game appears;

hrough this analysis, it is clear that any strategy that player A ta.es will not gi(e him a higher chance o" winning this game2 his is assumed, o" course, that each player ma.es his choice independent o" .nowing what the other player has chosen2 1" player A .new what player B chose, he would be able to win automatically2 Because he does not .now this in"ormation, howe(er, there does not e7ist a best strategy "or either him or player B2 1n order to more clearly present the idea o" a game tree% allow "or the modi"ication o" roc.-paper-scissors2 !et it be assumed that be"ore player A ma.es his choice, player B tells him one o" the two choices he has not made2 hat is, i" player B has chosen HscissorsI he may tell player A either that he has not chosen Hroc.I or that he has not chosen HpaperI2 4i(en that player B tells player A that he has not chosen Hroc.I, 1 will analyze player AFs options2 1n this situation, player A could choose scissors and ha(e a one-hal" chance o" winning ,a win or a tie-2 Alternati(ely, player A could choose roc. and also ha(e a one-hal" chance o" winning ,a win or a loss-2 Player AFs last option would be to choose paper and ha(e no chance o" winning ,a tie or loss-2

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@b(iously, player AFs best option would then be to choose scissors2 8learly there is a best strategy in this game2 he best strategy is to choose the item that would be beaten by the disclosed item that B did not guess ,in this case, scissors-2 =i"ty percent o" the time player A will win with this strategy, and "i"ty percent he will tie2 Had player B told player A Hno paperI instead o" Hno roc.I, this strategy would lead to a tie instead o" a win as in this situation2 Knless he does not use this strategy, player A cannot lose2 Aow e7amine this e7ample in game tree "orm;

By choosing scissors, player A can ma7imize his winnings in this game2 his is a (ery simple e7ample2 o add some comple7ity, allow the assignment o" payo""s2 Perhaps player A would be recei(ing a higher payo"" i" he chose roc. instead o" scissors2 o compensate "or his lower chance o" winning, he would need to determine whether the payo""s were "air2 Be"ore adding payo""s, a game matri7 is a method that needs to be introduced2 A matri7 is similar to a grid in where all possibilities can be charted2 As used in the pre(ious e7ample, here is the game in matri7 "orm;

Player B Hno roc.I Player B - Paper Player B - &cissors Player A - <oc. Player A - Paper -1 ? 1 -1 ?

Player A - &cissors 1

he payo""s are "rom player AFs point o" (iew2 A negati(e score "or player A is eDual to a positi(e score "or player B2 By totaling the columns and "inding an a(erage payo"", it is clear that scissors is the best choice "or player A2 Player BPs strategy can also be outlined by this matri72 All columns add up to the same amount, and ha(e the same three Duantities2 Howe(er, it is apparent that player A will ne(er choose paper2 6ith that row deleted, there is a 070 matri7 remaining2 1" player B chooses scissors he can either draw or lose2 1" player B chooses paper he can either win or lose2 here"ore paper should be the logical choice "or player B2 8ombined with player APs choice o" scissors, it is apparent that player A will win and player B will lose this game2 Howe(er, it should seem logical that player A will choose scissors, so the best player B can do is draw by choosing scissors2 1" player A sees that player B is going to choose scissors because o" this, howe(er, he may choose roc. and ta.e the win2 Howe(er, player B can anticipate "urther and choose paper2 &ince this psychology can go on "ore(er, we must anticipate the regular odds and stic. with them "or analytical purposes2 here are a "ew ways to determine the best choice2 6hile the third column a(erages ?2#, the second negati(e ?2#, and the third ?, had the payo""s been di""erent, a di""erent approach might ha(e been better2 Another e""ecti(e strategy is trying to minimize oneFs loss2 hat is, you may not ha(e as much to win, but your chances o" losing are less2 a.e this game payo"" matri7, "or e7ample; Player B Hno roc.I Player B - Paper Player B - &cissors

1?/09

Player A - <oc. Player A - Paper

-1? ?

0? -# ?

Player A - &cissors #

1n this case, player A still would not want to choose paper because he cannot win anything2 Howe(er, his choice is now not as clear2 6ith roc., he has a chance o" either winning big or losing a lot2 6ith scissors, he can win but the payo"" is not great2 1n minimizing his loss, player APs best choice is A, since he will ne(er lose anything2 Howe(er, the a(erage payo"" "or roc. is better2 )(en though he may lose 1?, he has the opportunity to win 0?2 he a(erage payo"" "or roc. is then # ,both items added and then hal(ed-2 he a(erage payo"" "or scissors is only 02#2 1" player A only has the chance to play one game, minimizing his loss will be the e""ecti(e strategy2 1" player A can play many games, choosing the best a(erage payo"" will be more e""ecti(e2 =rom player BPs standpoint in this game matri7, paper is the choice i" he wants to minimize immediate loss2 &ince player A will ne(er choose paper, player B should ne(er choose scissors since he cannot win anything2 here"ore paper is the o(erall best choice "or player B2 He will either win 1? or lose # depending on player APs decision o" either short-term or long-term strategy2 6hile roc.-paper-scissors is a (ery simple childhood game, it presents a (ery ideal e7ample "or the demonstration o" game trees and matrices2 Aow that these ideas are clear, they can be used to analyze the decision ma.ing process necessary in strategy games such as Magic; he 4athering2 he e""ects o" probability will also become apparent, but "irst 1 will e7plain the game theory aspect o" this game2

Two Person Game Theory and Magic: The Gathering

Aow that the ideas o" per"ect and imper"ect in"ormation, zero-sum and non-zero-sum games, game trees and matrices are all clear, 1 can begin to correlate these ideas with their presence in the game o" Magic; he 4athering2 6hile ideas as these are an underlying basis o" many games, understanding their applications is help"ul in analyzing the roots o" what ma.e up the concepts behind the game2 8ombined with probability analysis this will pro(e most help"ul to understanding the game2 Magic, as a whole, is a zero-sum game2 At the end o" a duel&'(, there is both a winner and a loser, or a tie-game situation2 6ithin the game lie non-zero-sum applications, howe(er2 =or instance, both players start with 0? li"e points2 he sum o" the change in li"e points is not zero2 As a matter o" "act, it is "ar more li.ely to be negati(e, since most dec.s to not utilize cards that gain li"e2 Ksually, at the end o" a game, one playerFs li"e will be zero and the other playerFs li"e will be a positi(e integer2 his is not always true, because i" both players reach zero simultaneously, the game is a draw2 A game can also end because a player has to draw a card "or whate(er reason, and has no cards le"t2 =or the most part, though, reaching zero li"e is the end o" a game, so that will be discussed "or all practical reasons2 Magic is also a game o" imper"ect in"ormation, with a "actor o" chance within2 Bou do not .now your opponentPs cards in hand unless a card which lets you see them is used by either player2 he order o" the remaining cards in your dec. is also an un.nown i" you are not using cards that let you see this in"ormation2 he e7act contents o" the opponentFs dec. are also an un.nown that will not be a(ailable "or you to see unless you ha(e a card that lets you, such as JesterFs 8ap &)(2 Because you .now the contents o" your own dec., and do not get the same hand e(ery game, there is an inherent "actor o" chance2 he decisions necessary in Magic can actually be drawn as game trees2 6hene(er you ha(e to ma.e a decision such as which card to play, whether to wait until later or play a card now, or whether to counter a spell or not, a game tree is in(ol(ed whether you realize it or not2 Allow the "ollowing hypothetical situation; Jim has out a 4oblin Patrol &*(, Mogg =anatic&+(, and 4oblin <aider&,(2 He has three cards in hand; &hoc.&-(, Mountain, and Mogg =anatic2 He has two Mountains in play, both untapped2 His opponent, Jon, has out three Plains&.(2 Jon has no creatures out and "i(e cards in hand2 =irst Jim attac.s Jon with the three creatures, dealing "i(e points o" damage, bringing Jon down to 10 li"e2 he Duestions are, should Jim play the Mountain or hold onto it9 &hould Jim play the Mogg9 &hould Jim play the &hoc.9 6hile 1 will not yet be analyzing the probabilities in"luencing the decision, 1 will analyze the se(eral possible outcomes2 Jim .nows that Jon is playing a solid white dec.2 hat is, white is the only color o" any o" the colored cards in the dec.2 here are no cards o" any other color besides colorless cards2 hat being said, there are many white cards that are capable o" destroying what Jim has in play2 Armageddon&/( and 6rath o" 4od&0( are two o" these cards2 Also, Jon has &erra Angel&'1(

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in his dec. to bloc. oncoming attac.ers with2 6rath o" 4od will destroy all o" JimFs creatures2 6ith three lands out, Jon can possibly be holding a 6rath o" 4od in his hand, along with the land he needs to cast it2 here"ore, it may not be such a good idea "or Jim to play any more creatures2 &eeing that Jon is at 10 li"e, attac.ing twice more and casting the &hoc. will let Jim win2 1" he plays any more creatures, Jim will still ha(e to attac. twice to deal su""icient damage, yet will put Jon on the o""ensi(e2 Howe(er, i" he waits too long, Jon may be able to ta.e control o" the board2 1" Jon can play a &erra Angel, he will be able to bloc. one o" JimFs attac.ers2 here"ore ha(ing another creature to attac. with might be a good idea2 Mogg =anatic can be sacri"iced to deal one damage, so playing it is ne(er too ris.y2 Being able to attac. with it, too, can be a bene"it, nonetheless2 1" he plays the Mountain, he will not gain a su""icient ad(antage, and may lea(e himsel" susceptible to a mid-game Armageddon2 1" he plays the &hoc. now, he may gi(e up the opportunity to use it on a creature Jon plays, or may +ust eliminate the surprise (alue2 Howe(er, Jon may be pretty sure that Jim has one in his hand so that may not be an issue2 hese three decisions ha(e many "actors a""ecting them, as now demonstrated2 Here is a general summary o" JimFs options and JonFs resulting li"e total;

here"ore, i" Jon plays a 6rath o" 4od ne7t turn he can ha(e a shot at winning the game2 1" he does not, he will need one ne7t turn, as ha(ing a bloc.er alone will not sa(e him2 &ince Jim has a &hoc. in his hand, he can use it to do 0 damage to Jon2 8ombined with the two Mogg =anatics, he can beat Jon simply by getting him to 5 li"e or less2 Howe(er, i" Jon plays the 6rath, Jim will ha(e to sacri"ice his Moggs immediately2 Playing the &hoc. ends up not ma.ing a di""erence because to destroy the &erra Jim will need both the &hoc. and another creature or two2 here"ore the e""orts are better spent on reducing JimFs li"e total2 &ubseDuently, i" Jon is able to get out a &erra a"ter casting a 6rath, Jim cannot do anything about it e7cept hope to draw something good2 6ith the resources he currently has he cannot do anything2 Playing the Mountain, howe(er, does not seem worth it, since i" Jon casts Armageddon, Jim will need to hope to draw another Mountain as well as the additional cards he already needs2 hin.ing ahead, Jim realizes the best plan is to play the Mogg =anatic2 &a(ing it will do no good since he already has enough attac.ers to beat Jon regardless o" the &erra, pro(ided he does not play a 6rath2 By using this all-or-nothing strategy, Jim is assuming that Jon does not ha(e a 6rath to cast ne7t turn2 1" he does, the game will be grim "or Jim2 1" he has one the turn a"ter, that is where the only di""erence comes in2 By sa(ing the Mogg, the ad(antage gained is that Jim will be able to play it a"ter Jon casts the 6rath2 Howe(er, since it is so late in the game, Jon will probably be ready to play his &erra the turn a"ter, or something else that can control the Mogg2 Hence it is better i" he plays it and gets in an e7tra attac. with the Mogg2 Being able to put Jon down to 0 li"e, as opposed to 3 li"e, will help2 1" Jim draws another &hoc. he can win the game right then2 6ithout the e7tra damage, he would need two direct damage&''( cards2 Ksing an all-out aggressi(e strategy is there"ore the best thing Jim can do in hopes o" winning this game2 1n order to demonstrate the concept o" a game matri7 in Magic; he 4athering, 1 will use a di""erent e7ample2 Aote that in the case o" Magic, both players almost ne(er ma.e game decisions at the same time2 he decision ma.ing process o"ten alternates "rom one player to the other2 Howe(er, the topic o" dec. selection has se(eral game matri7 applications2 1n Magic,

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any gi(en .ind o" dec. has both strengths and wea.nesses2 *ec. A may win against dec. B most o" the time but lose to dec. 8 +ust as o"ten2 Being as there are se(eral types o" strategies and sub-strategies within Magic, the choice o" dec. one uses may o"ten be a great .ey in determining how he "ares at a tournament2 6hile play s.ill is important, dec. match-ups and luc. o" the draw are "actors o" the game, also2 &ome dec.s try to play slowly and ta.e control o" the game and then win, while others play aggressi(ely and try to win immediately be"ore the opponent can control the game2 Jim has a "ast red dec. with "ast creatures and direct damage, a "ast green dec. with many power"ul low casting-cost creatures, and a slow blue control dec.2 Jon has a "ast blac. creature dec., a white control dec., and a red control dec.2 =or the sa.e o" discussion, let it be gi(en that Jim and Jon tested these dec.s against each other e7tensi(ely and "ound how o"ten their own dec.s won2 6in percentages are "rom JonFs point o" (iew2 JonFs 6in Q Jon <ed 8ontrol Jon 6hite 8ontrol Jon =ast Blac. 0?Q 5?Q 3?Q :?Q 0?Q #?Q

Jim Blue 8ontrol $?Q Jim =ast <ed Jim =ast 4reen #?Q 3?Q

he game matri7 gi(en by JimFs dec.s (ersus JonFs dec.s can be sol(ed in order "or each player to determine which o" his own dec.s is the best one to play against the other player2 he simplest method would be to a(erage the possible outcomes and "ind the result2 By doing that, JonFs slow red dec. wins #?Q o" the time, JonFs slow white dec. wins 3?Q o" the time, and JonFs "ast blac. dec. wins #?Q o" the time2 Ksing 1?? minus the number gi(en since they are "rom JonFs point o" (iew, JimFs slow blue dec. wins 53Q o" the time, JimFs "ast red dec. wins '3Q o" the time, and JimFs "ast green dec. wins '3Q o" the time2 1" each player uses one o" his best o(erall dec.s, Jon will either be playing slow red or "ast blac. against JimFs "ast red or "ast green dec.2 he simpli"ied game matri7 would be a 070 which loo.s li.e this; JonFs 6in Q Jim =ast <ed Jon <ed 8ontrol Jon =ast Blac. #?Q 0?Q #?Q

Jim =ast 4reen 3?Q

his being the case, JonFs slow red dec. would win 5?Q o" the time, and his "ast blac. dec. 3#Q o" the time2 JimFs "ast red dec. would win '#Q o" the time, and his "ast green dec. '?Q o" the time2 hat being the case, Jon would be more li.ely to use his red control dec. and Jim more li.ely to use his "ast red dec.2 Both players would then ha(e a #?-#? chance o" winning2 6hen going to a tournament, howe(er, one must account "or e(ery possible dec. match-up2 hat means that instead o" +ust his own dec.s (ersus a "riendFs three dec.s, he must account "or his own dec.s (ersus all the di""erent types o" dec.s he will e7pect to see2 Additionally, he must ta.e into account how many o" those dec.s he e7pects to see2 1n Magic lingo, this is o"ten re"erred to as the HmetagameI2 his is the game within a game% determining what you thin. you are playing against2 By determining your chance o" being able to de"eat a certain dec. multiplied by the chance o" "acing it, and summing up all the products "or Hmatch-up probability times win probabilityI "or each opposing dec., one can assess the o(erall win probability "or any gi(en dec.2 By doing this "or each dec. and "inding which one has the highest probability o" winning, a player guarantees himsel" the highest le(el o" success2

2ootnotes: A duel re"ers to a single game, while a match is the best two out o" three games2 JesterFs 8ap; Arti"act, 52 Pay 0 mana, tap and sacri"ice JesterFs 8ap to loo. through the opponentFs dec. and remo(e any three cards "rom the game2 4oblin Patrol; 8reature - 4oblin, <2 )cho2 0/12 Mogg =anatic; 8reature - 4oblin, <2 &acri"ice to deal 1 point o" damage to a creature or player2 1/1 4oblin Patrol; 8reature - 4oblin, 1<2 8annot be used to bloc.2 0/0

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&hoc.; 1nstant, <2 arget player or creature ta.es 0 damage2 ,Bes, this card is ob(iously a wea.ened !ightning Bolt, but when building dec.s out o" the in-print pool o" cards, only &hoc. can be used-2 Plains; !and2 ap "or one white mana2 Armageddon; &orcery, 362 *estroy all lands2 6rath o" 4od; &orcery, 0662 *estroy all creatures2 hey cannot be regenerated ,special ability that pre(ents them "rom being destroyed-2 &erra Angel; 8reature, 3662 *oes not tap when attac.ing2 5/5, =lying2 As opposed to creatures that ha(e to go unbloc.ed to do damage, cards which can do damage directly to a player immediately are o"ten re"erred to as *irect *amage2

Probability
Probability and Magic: The Gathering
*ecision-ma.ing is a (ital aspect o" Magic% howe(er, it is not the sole discerning bac.bone o" the game2 o be able to ma.e the right decisions means to .now how to determine what is the right decision2 Mnowing the chance that any gi(en e(ent will occur is what will let the player determine what his proper strategy should be2 1" your opponent has "i(e cards in hand, "our 1slands&'( on the table, and nothing else, how do you react9 Mnowledge o" any possible cards in his dec. can help2 More importantly, .nowledge o" cards that are de"initely in his dec. is e(en better2 1" you ha(e a (ital spell you want to cast without "ear o" it being countered, what will your strategy be9 6ill it change i" you .now that there are "our 8ounterspells in his discard pile9 6hat i" there are two 8ounterspells and three =orbids in his discard pile9 rying to determine how much countermagic he will ha(e is a di""icult tas.2 Aonetheless, it represents a (ery important situation that comes up o"ten in the game2 Mnowing how to play your cards is o"ten the .ey to (ictory2 @nce again, trying to determine the best strategy is where the gray areas lie2 Perhaps there is no best strategy, and there are only two eDually Dualitati(e strategies2 1n a case such as that, only chance will determine which strategy is the right one2 Bour opponent is Ce(, and he has two islands untapped, one card in hand, and is at 3 li"e2 Bou want to win immediately, with the !ightning Bolt in your hand that will do 3 damage to Ce(2 1" Ce( has three 8ounterspells in his discard pile, and there are "our total in his dec., should you cast the !ightning Bolt9 Assuming he has no other countermagic in his dec., you want to .now the possibility that the one card he is holding is a 8ounterspell2 Be"ore trying to determine the probability that it is a 8ounterspell, we "irst need a clear de"inition o" what probability is2 *e"inition; he probability that an e(ent will occur is eDual to the number o" "a(orable outcomes di(ided by the total number o" possible outcomes2 =irst you ha(e to count up the cards le"t in Ce(Fs dec.2 Kpon counting, you "ind that there are 05 cards le"t2 8ombined with the card in his hand, there are 0# cards in his dec. that you ha(e not yet seen2 @ne o" them you .now is a 8ounterspell2 he number o" un"a(orable outcomes in this case is 1; Ce( ha(ing the 8ounterspell in his hand2 he number o" "a(orable outcomes is 05; he other cards in his dec.2 he total number o" outcomes is 0#2 *i(ide 1 by 0# and you get 2?5, which is 5Q2 Ce( has a 5Q chance o" ha(ing a 8ounterspell, and there"ore you ha(e a 9'Q chance o" winning the game immediately2 6hat i" you had seen the top "i(e cards o" Ce(Fs dec.9 1" you had a card that allowed this, and you saw no 8ounterspell in those cards, your chances would diminish o" being able to a !ightning Bolt without it being countered2 he number o" possible outcomes would be 0?2 he chance o" Ce( ha(ing a 8ounterspell would be 1/0?, or #Q2 Aow your chance o" winning immediately goes down to 9#Q2 1t is not a big drop, but it all adds up2 his is +ust something to consider when playing the game2 Howe(er, this Duestion can ob(iously become more comple72 6hat i" Ce( had two 8ounterspells le"t in his dec.9 &uddenly this de"inition o" probability is not as use"ul, since we do not .now the number o" "a(orable outcomes2 Hypergeometric distribution comes into play here, and is used to determine the answer to such a problem2 *rawing cards out o" a dec. is a ma+or probability situation in Magic% howe(er, there are other players in the game o" probability2 How e""ecti(e is shu""ling a dec.9 8an a dec. truly be randomized9 1" so, how many shu""les are necessary to completely randomize a dec.9 All o" these topics play a large role in the game o" Magic2 @ne more ma+or topic, though, is the big Duestion o" chance (ersus s.ill2 6hen playing in a tournament, you decide to use a "ast red dec.2 Bou lose all three rounds and go home complaining about how you got paired against dec.s designed to beat you2 How accurate is that statement9 o "ind out i" the dec.s always

15/09

beat you, "irst you ha(e to determine whether you played your own dec. correctly2 Perhaps you played your dec. incorrectly and your ad(ersaries played "lawlessly2 1" that was the case, then you were no match "or them2 Ksing the people 1 ha(e a(ailable, 1 will attempt to draw conclusions on sample dec. types about how much o" a chance one dec. has "or winning against another2 By then re(ersing who is playing each dec., new data ma.es itsel" present, since each player plays a dec. di""erently2 he player who ma.es the best o(erall decisions is the one who will win the most with a gi(en dec.2 By applying that theory, 1 will be able to chart the statistics o" dec.s and players using this Hchance (ersus s.illI method2 2ootnotes: 1sland; !and2 ap "or one blue mana2

%huffling and 7andomi8ation

&ince Magic is supposed to be played with a randomized dec. o" si7ty or more cards, the issue o" shu""ling presents itsel" at the beginning o" the game, as well as some situations within the game that reDuire shu""ling2 6hat constitutes "ully randomizing a dec.9 he three most common shu""ling techniDues used by players are ri""le shu""les, pile shu""les, and o(erhand shu""les2 A ri""le shu""le is when the dec. is di(ided into two hal(es and ri""led together, alternating one card "rom each2 A pile shu""le is when the dec. is dealt out into a number o" piles and then grouped bac. up2 An o(erhand shu""le is +ust ta.ing part o" the dec. and mo(ing it to another part o" the dec., such as ta.ing a "ew cards "rom the middle and mo(ing them to the top or bottom, o(er and o(er2 @b(iously the o(erhand shu""le is the least e""ecti(e shu""le, as RclumpsR o" cards ,that is, small groups o" cards- tend to stay together more o"ten and not get randomized in this method2 he ri""le shu""le and pile shu""les are indeed the methods that pro"essional players use2 &imply put, these methods randomize the dec. to a much higher degree2 Pile shu""les (ary among players2 &ome li.e to use "our piles, while some use se(en2 1 ha(e seen higher-end players use se(en piles2 his is e""ecti(e because clumps are none7istent in this method2 Any group o" se(en cards becomes completely di(ided using this method2 8ombined with a "ew ri""le shu""les, this randomizes a dec. to a great degree2 How good is a ri""le shu""le, though9 o randomize a dec. o" #0 playing cards, it only ta.es $ times&'(2 6ith '? cards, it should there"ore ta.e appro7imately : shu""les2 6hen many players play a game 1 o"ten see them o(erhand shu""le once or twice, and "eign a ri""le shu""le2 hese players then draw land a"ter land and wonder whyG According to the same web site, it would ta.e 0#?? o(erhand shu""les in order to get the same randomization as $ ri""le shu""lesG Again my analysis holds true; <i""le shu""ling is a supremely e""ecti(e shu""ling method2 6hen playing a game, the best thing to do is probably pile shu""le with se(en piles "irst, in order to mi7 up your dec. "rom the pre(ious game2 A"ter that, three or "our ri""le shu""les are incredibly e""ecti(e2 &e(en or eight ri""le shu""les be"ore each game can be incredibly tedious, but the e7istence complete randomization is still sha.y2 here"ore coming close to complete randomization is the best one can do2 )(en though pile shu""les and ri""le shu""les combine to create a good shu""ling techniDue, there will always be the chance o" drawing no land cards or all land cards2 Howe(er, that is part o" being randomized, and will happen e(ery so o"ten2 Because o" this, the *81 created the Mulligan rule2 hat lets players shu""le their initial hand into their dec. at the (ery beginning o" the game i" they are (ery unpleased with it2 he penalty is that their new hand consists o" one "ewer card2 his is a great idea, because the chance o" drawing no land twice in a row is (ery slim2 1n the ne7t section, 1 will analyze such probabilities in depth using hypergeometric distribution techniDues2 2ootnotes: http;//www2scc2ms2unimelb2edu2au/discday/dy./shu""2html

!rawing Cards 2rom a !ec"

Aow the Duestion arises again; 1" you ha(e "our o" a card in your si7ty-card dec., what is the chance you will draw one in your opening hand9 1" you had only one copy o" the card, the problem becomes simple2 Probability is de"ined as the number o" chances that the e(ent will occur di(ided by the total number o" possible outcomes2 here"ore i" you had one copy o" a card in your si7ty-card dec., you would ha(e a $/'? chance o" drawing it in your initial se(en-card hand2 1" you ha(e "our copies o" the card, though, does the chance become 5/'?9 @r perhaps it is more or less than that Duantity9 =irst let me do a Duic. re(iew o" some math concepts2 =actorials, permutations, combinations, and hypergeometric distributions are much o" what ma.e up this topic2 Be"ore 1 start re"erring to these concepts 1 will "irst e7plain each o" them so the non-mathematically moti(ated reader can catch up2

1#/09

A "actorial is calculated by multiplying all the whole numbers "rom 1 up to that number together2 1t is written in the "orm RAGR where A is a positi(e number2 =or e7ample, 1 7 0 7 3 7 5 7 # S 10? S #G which is read as R# "actorialR2 Cero "actorial is de"ined as 12 6hile it does not immediately ma.e sense mathematically spea.ing, trying to "ind the number o" permutations a(ailable "or zero items ma.es sense% there is only one way to arrange zero items2 A permutation represents the number o" di""erent ways one can arrange A ob+ects2 1" you ha(e # boo.s and want to see how many di""erent ways you can stac. them, you would use a "actorial2 he "irst boo. would ha(e # possible positions% the ne7t one would ha(e 5 possible positions le"t, and so on2 here"ore there are 10? ,#G- ways to arrange # boo.s2 1" you only wanted to arrange 3 o" the # boo.s, you would only need to compute # 7 5 7 3 which is eDual to '?2 hat is because you are only using 3 positions2 A combination simply represents a number o" possible subsets, and is not concerned with the arrangement o" these items2 1" you were to choose 3 out o" # boo.s, how many di""erent combinations are possible9 =or this, you would ta.e the number o" permutations, but then di(ide by the number o" repeated combinations2 Bou do this by ta.ing the "actorial o" the number o" items2 =or this e7ample, you would "ind # T 5 T 3 and di(ide it by 1 T 0 T 32 here"ore '? di(ided by ' is 1?, and there are 1? di""erent ways to pic. 3 out o" # boo.s2 A hypergeometric distribution is something much more comple72 1t is used to determine the probability o" certain sets o" occurrences when e7tracting elements without replacement2 hat de"inition certainly applies to drawing cards "rom a dec., since you are ta.ing them out2 Hypergeometric distribution may seem li.e an un"amiliar phrase, but it is a concept that we are all "airly "amiliar with2 6hen drawing cards "rom a dec. without putting them bac., this concept applies2 his "ormula can be used to determine how o"ten you draw certain cards "rom a dec. o" cards2 he "ormula synta7 is a bit comple7, though2 <ecall the "ormula "or the number o" combinations "or 3 out o" # items, that is 8 ,#, 3- is ,# T 5 T 3 / 1 T 0 T 3- or 1?2 Alternati(ely, this can be written as #G / ,3G T ,#-3-G-2 his can be con(erted into the general notation LG / ,BG T ,L-B-G-2 L is the total number o" items to choose "rom, and B is the number being chosen2 Ksing the same L and B notation, the "ormula "or hypergeometric distribution H &9: ;( is as follows: H &9'< 9n: ;'< ;n( = C &9': ;'( > < > C &9n: ;n( ? C &9' @ < @ 9n: ;' @ < @ ;n( Howe(er, this can be greatly simpli"ied instead o" ha(ing to go through each item "rom 1 to A, where A is the total number o" cards2 1n a two-set case, that is, all the cards you are concerned about being one case and the rest being the other, this is the simpli"ied "ormula; H &n( = C &9: n( > C &; 9: A n( ? C &;: A( 9 stands for the number of a certain card that you haBe in the dec"C ; is the number of cards in the dec"C A is the number of cards you are drawingC D is the number you are chec"ing forC 1nstead o" doing all this arithmetic by hand or with a super calculator that can handle such large "actorials, a spreadsheet such as )7cel can be used to "ind hypergeometric distributions2 he synta7 is HBP4)@M*1& ,A, C, L, B-2 =or instance, i" you ha(e a '?-card dec., what will be your chances o" not drawing one o" your 5 !ightning Bolts on turn 19 By using HBP4)@M*1& ,?, $, 5, '?- you will get the chance "or not drawing the card2 here"ore i" you want to chec. "or the chances o" drawing a !ightning Bolt, you would subtract the result "rom 12 urn 1 '?2?#Q urn 0 ##2#0Q urn 3 #120#Q urn 5 5$203Q urn # 5325#Q urn ' 3929?Q

1'/09

urn $ 3'2#:Q urn : 3325'Q

urn 9 3?2##Q

urn 1? 0$2:5Q

hose are the chances o" not drawing a !ightning Bolt2 @n turn 1, you will ha(e $ cards, and there is a '?2?#Q chance that you ha(e not drawn one o" your 5 !ightning Bolts out o" '? cards2 By turn 1? this chance diminishes to 0$2:5Q2 !i.ewise, the chance o" drawing one or more by turn 1 is 3929#Q, and the chance increases to $021'Q by turn 1?2 Hypergeometric distribution has other use"ul applications within the game2 8alculating how many land cards to use in a dec. is the base o" dec.building, as one needs land in order to play his cards2 oo many land cards will cause you to draw not enough good cards late in the game, and too "ew will cause you to stall, gi(ing your opponent the ad(antage2 &ome dec.s will want more land and be able to ta.e ad(antage o" it, and others will want "ewer because o" smaller mana reDuirements2 1" you want to draw "our land by turn "our o"ten, but not too o"ten, this "ormula is help"ul2 he best thing to do within the game would be to ha(e a $?-:?Q chance o" this happening, then use cards that allow you to loo. through your dec. to get more2 <ight now 1 will e7amine the chances o" drawing "our land cards by turn "our i" there are (arying amounts in the dec.2 Ksing HBP4)@M*1& on )7cel, this ta.es a "ew steps2 =or each number o" land in the dec. ,1Pll use 1' through 3?-, you ha(e to determine the chance o" drawing ?, 1, 0 and 3 land in 1? cards out o" a '?-card dec.2 hen they ha(e to be added up, and the total subtracted "rom 12 he "inal numbers are the chances o" drawing 5 land by turn 52

1' 05299Q 1$ 092#0Q 1: 3520#Q 19 39210Q 0? 552?#Q

01 5:29:Q 00 #32:#Q 03 #:2'?Q 05 '321:Q 0# '$2#5Q

0' $12'5Q 0$ $#25'Q 0: $:29$Q 09 :021$Q 3? :#2?#Q

*epending on what ratio you are willing to wor. with, it would appear that 0: land seems to gi(e a "air chance o" drawing the lands this dec. needs2 *epending the number o" cards in the dec. that allow the player to loo. through e7tra cards, anywhere "rom 05 to 0: land is the number to use2 8ards such as 1mpulse&'( help remedy this cause2 As long as the player has 0 land to cast it with, 1mpulse can get the player what he needs anytime in the game2

2ootnotes: 1mpulse; 1nstant, 1K2 !oo. at the top 5 cards o" your dec.2 Put one in your hand and the other 3 on the bottom o" your dec. in any order2

The $Berage Game

1n a game o" Magic, there is a lot o" decision ma.ing and probability2 1 ha(e already gi(en a glimpse o" the decision-ma.ing aspect2 Aow 1 shall e7amine the probability aspect2 &e(eral random e(ents happen in Magic2 he cards you draw are somewhat a "actor o" randomness2 here may be games that you get the same cards, but rarely in the same order2 @"ten times the game might play almost identical to another game because o" dec. searching cards used to get certain cards, but two games are rarely identical to one another2 *ec. randomization is one ma+or "actor in probability a""ecting the game2 1" you need to draw a game-altering card in order to seize ad(antage o" the game, you ha(e to determine the chance o" drawing that card and plan ahead "or another strategy should you not draw the card you need2 Ha(ing a bac.up plan is "ail-sa"e, simply because relying on a single strategy that will not always wor. will not get you (ery "ar2

1$/09

here are a "ew cards in Magic that ma.e you "lip a coin, but it is rarely an issue within the game2 A couple o" years ago there was a coin-"lip card that saw plenty o" tournament play called =renetic )"reet &'(2 1t utilized a game mechanic called phasing2 6hen a card phases out it is remo(ed "rom the game2 1t phases bac. in during its controllerFs ne7t untap phase2 his card was good because i" it was the target o" a card such as !ightning Bolt or &hoc., its controller could attempt to sa(e it by phasing it out2 1t would ha(e a #? percent chance o" being lost as opposed to a 1?? percent chance o" being lost i" it lac.ed its special ability2 @(er time, this ability would net its controller an e7treme ad(antage2 1" the opponent had to use two cards in order to remo(e a single card, that meant that the player who only lost one card had more resources le"t2 &uch card ad(antage is crucial to gaining an ad(antage in the game2 8ards li.e 6rath o" 4od, which can ma.e the opponent lose more than one card, are power"ul2 6hen playing more than one creature against a dec. with 6rath o" 4od in it, you need to try and "igure out whether it is better to play more creatures and try to de"eat the person "ast, or to anticipate a 6rath and play creatures a"ter2 =iguring the probability o" a 6rath is use"ul2 Just .nowing some basic "igures, such as the chance o" the opponent drawing one a"ter #, ', $ turns is all a player should be com"ortable2 *oing hypergeometric distributions on the spot is de"initely not something a player needs2 8ommon sense usually dictates the right play2 1" there is one card in a dec. that can gi(e the dec. a se(ere ad(antage against an opposing dec., ha(ing drawn that card at the right point in the course o" a game also adds to randomness2 1" the card is needed early, getting it within the "irst three or "our turns will o"ten be a deciding "actor2 his chance is around "i"ty percent, gi(en there are "our o" the card in a dec., as shown through hypergeometric distribution2 he largest random "actor in Magic is by "ar randomness o" the dec.2 he cards a player draws "rom his dec. are chosen at random2 here"ore what card a player is going to draw is an un.nown until he draws his ne7t card2 Aot ha(ing this .nowledge limits a playerFs ability to thin. and plan ahead2 8ompare this to the popular game o" etris2 1n etris, the ob+ect is to stac. "alling bloc.s so they arrange into lines without gaps2 By (iewing the ne7t piece, the player easily plans a strategy, and plans ahead in order to succeed2 1n Magic, the player does not .now his ne7t card, and can only plan in the present2 hat is, unless the player has a card in play which allows him to (iew the ne7t card or cards in his dec.2 4enerally, being able to plan ahead is limited to the cards in oneFs hand2 Mnowing the chances o" what cards will be drawn later in is only s.etchy, because the player cannot determine e7actly when the cards will be drawn2 a.e the "ollowing situation2 Bou are in a duel with Andrew and you are at : li"e2 Andrew is playing a "ast blac. dec. with lots o" small creatures that are slowly diminishing your li"e total2 Bou are playing a blue and white control dec. and ha(e altered your dec. between games ,this is called sideboarding&)(- in order to help you de"eat AndrewFs dec.2 He has not put in any cards "rom his sideboard2 1n order to guarantee your (ictory against Andrew, you ha(e put 3 copies o" the card !ight o" *ay&*( in your dec.2 &ince you .now the entire contents o" AndrewFs dec., you .now that !ight o" *ay will stop him cold in his trac.s and let you do whate(er you want, since his one method o" (ictory will be gone2 1t is currently the end o" your se(enth turn2 Bou played "irst this game2 Bou still ha(e not drawn a !ight o" *ay, but ha(e all the land you need "or it; 5 1slands and 3 Plains2 Howe(er, i" you draw one o" your 5 copies o" 1ntuition&+( you will be able to search your dec. "or a !ight o" *ay and play it immediately2 6hat are the chances o" you winning ne7t turn9 6hat are your chances o" winning the turn a"ter9 6hat do you do in the meantime i" you do not draw a !ight o" *ay9 &ince you ha(e ta.en $ turns and played "irst, and we will assume you ha(e used no dec. manipulation cards, you ha(e gone through 13 cards2 @" those 13 cards, none were 1ntuitions or !ight o" *ays2 &ince there are 5 1ntuitions and 3 !ight o" *ays, you ha(e $ "a(orable outcomes out o" 5$ cards that can be drawn "rom ne7t turn2 =or the turn a"ter, you will ha(e $ out o" 5' i" you do not draw a .ey card ne7t turn2 hat does not mean a chance o" $/5', though2 Ksing the "ormula "rom the last chapter, you would "ind HBP4)@M*1& ,1, 1, $, 5$- because you are chec.ing "or 1 card, you are drawing 1 card, you ha(e $ "a(orable outcomes, and 5$ total outcomes possible2 Bour chance o" winning ne7t turn is 1529Q2 o "ind the chance o" drawing the card the turn a"ter i" it is not drawn ne7t turn, change the 5$ with 5' since there would be one other card drawn ne7t turn which is not directly use"ul2 o "ind the total chance between the two ne7t turns, you would need to "ind the sum o" HBP4)@M*1& ,1, 0, $, 5$- and HBP4)@M*1& ,0, 0, $, 5$- since you are drawing 0 cards, and there can be either 1 or 0 o" your $ .ey cards drawn2 Bour chance o" winning in two turns is 0$2:Q i" you do not win ne7t turn2 6hat is your chance o" winning in 3 turns "rom now i" you do not win within two turns9

1:/09

By adding up the chances o" drawing 1, 0, or 3 copies o" your .ey cards by then, the answer comes to 392?Q2 @" course, that is the chance in ad(ance2 1" a"ter two turns you ha(e not drawn any o" the .ey cards, your chance is actually lower2 he same applies to the pre(ious e7ample "or winning in two turns, a"ter drawing the "irst card2 hen, the chance is similar to the "irst e7ample, with one card being drawn2 1" you do not win a"ter one turn, your chance o" winning on the second turn is 1#20Q2 1" you do not win on the second turn, your chance o" winning on the third turn increases to 1#2#Q2 his is "ound by ta.ing the hypergeometric distribution o" 5' and 5# cards, respecti(ely, instead o" 5$2 1" you "ind that these chances are too low, you will need to plan an alternate strategy2 &uch a strategy might include using your a(ailable resources to stalling out Andrew instead o" sa(ing them to win the game immediately a"ter you get your loc.2 =or e7ample, you might play a creature now and use it to bloc. one o" his in the meantime in order to sa(e you some damage2 here is no clear method o" probability ma.ing the right decision2 1nstead, a player needs to use probability to plan a strategy2 A strategy will pro(ide decisions "or any gi(en situation2 2ootnotes: =renetic )"reet; 8reature, 1<K2 ?; =lip a coin2 1" you win, it phases out2 @therwise it is buried2 =lying2 0/12 A word about sideboards; 1n a tournament, players play the best two out o" three games2 Between games 1 and 0, and between games 0 and 3, each player can e7change on a one-"or-one basis cards between his dec. and 1#-card sideboard2 Players are allowed to use a sideboard optionally% either a ? card or 1#-card sideboard is used2 !ight o" *ay; )nchantment, 362 Blac. creatures cannot attac. or bloc.2 1ntuition; 1nstant, 0K2 &earch your dec. "or any three cards and show them to your opponent, who then chooses one card2 he chosen card goes in your hand, and the other two in your discard pile2

Chance Eersus %"ill

1n Magic; he 4athering, there are two ma+or "actors which contribute to a (ictory2 he dec. and the player are these two "actors2 @ne player may play a dec. to complete per"ection, while another may lose horribly with it e(ery game2 &ometimes it may be the playerFs strategies that are "lawed, and sometimes it may be the dec.s that he has to play against2 8ertain dec.s, as 1 will show, ha(e inherent strengths against others, and that gi(es them a higher o(erall win percentage2 4i(en that two players o" eDual s.ill are using the two gi(en dec.s, the dec. with an inherent strength against the other dec. will win more o"ten2 &imilarly, i" two players o" di""ering s.ill use the same pair o" dec.s, the better player should usually win with either dec. i" the dec.s beat each other hal" o" the time2 Howe(er, there may be no H#?Q dec.2I &ome may come close but there is no e7act dec. that "its this description2 1nstead, there are se(eral di""erent .inds o" dec.s with (arying win proportions2 1n order to study this theory, 1 constructed "our dec.s, and brought them o(er to my "riend Jim rierFs house2 Jim is a Magic (eteran "rom a couple years past when he used to collect2 He no longer collects the cards, but he stays current with the game and plays online with Apprentice2 By being able to represent cards in a computer program without actually ha(ing to obtain the cards, Apprentice is a wonder"ul tool2 @" course, playing Magic in person is a completely di""erent e7perience2 Aonetheless, we played 10 sets o" 5 games each2 1n each set, we each too. a dec. and played 5 games in order to determine a "airly rough estimate o" the dec.Fs win ratio, gi(en the player2 Aote that a dec. did not play against itsel" since there was only one copy o" each dec.2 he results are represented in the "ollowing game matri7; , he scores are "rom JonFs perspecti(e-2

8hance and &.ill Jim-Blue Jim-4reen Jim-6hite Jim-<ed Jon-Blue Jon-4reen Jon-6hite Jon-<ed A/A 1??Q $#Q $#Q ?Q A/A $#Q ?Q 1??Q $#Q A/A ?Q 0#Q $#Q 1??Q A/A

19/09

he "ollowing statistics can be obtained "rom this matri7;

*ec. @(erall JonFs 4ames JimFs 4ames Blue 09Q 4reen $9Q 6hite '3Q <ed 09Q 50Q :3Q :3Q 0#Q 1$Q $#Q 50Q 33Q

Jon won #:Q o" the games and Jim won 50Q o" the games2 Howe(er, this is only an appro7imation since the card draws each dec. gets (ary a lot2 A larger sample o" games would be necessary in order to get a better appro7imation, but the number o" games reDuired would be cumbersome and uninteresting2 his e7ample is good enough to demonstrate the concept o" chance (ersus s.ill2 he green dec. appears to be the o(erall best, with the white dec. second o(erall best2 he idea o" chance and s.ill interacting comes into play when dec. match-ups are analyzed2 =or instance, when Jon played the green dec. and Jim played the blue dec., the green dec. won all "our games2 he same thing happened when Jim used the green dec.2 here"ore it appears that playing s.ill did not ha(e an e""ect on this dec. match-up2 =or the white dec. against the green dec., howe(er, this is not the case2 1t appears that the white dec. reDuired more s.ill to play correctly because Jon was able to beat the green dec. three games with it, while Jim was only able to beat the green dec. one game with it2 &imilar con+ectures apply to white (ersus blue, and red (ersus green2 Ksing a game matri7 along with common sense ideas, one can determine where s.ill plays more o" a role in the game than chance does2 )(en by +ust loo.ing at the total wins, we see how Jon was able to win more with e(ery dec. e7cept the red dec.2 he larger the di""erence between Jim and JonFs wins is, the larger the amount o" s.ill in(ol(ed in playing the dec.2 Again, allow me to remind the reader that the amount o" data used in this e7periment only ma.es "or a (ery crude estimation o" chance (ersus s.ill2 A bad hand will a""ect this e7periment a lot worse than i" there were, say, 1?? games played in each trial2 =or instance, it does not ma.e sense that Jim can play JonFs dec. better than Jon can2 Jon designed the red dec.% so there"ore, Jim should not be able to play it better in theory2 Aonetheless, card draws can a""ect such an e7periment as this in both ways2 &till, it is possible that Jim may actually be the better player o" this dec.2 6hile it is illogical, it is not to be ruled out as a possibility2 he results are +ust not accurate enough to determine an actual result2 Howe(er, they are good enough to demonstrate the main ideas2

!ec"building
!ec"building and Magic: The Gathering
Magic is a (ery intriguing game in the aspect that there are so many possible dec. con"igurations2 6ithin the in"inite possibilities o" dec. construction lie se(eral e""ecti(e dec. archetypes2 A dec. archetype simply represents a dec. type and all its minor (ariations2 A green dec. with many small creatures, commonly re"erred to as a green horde dec., can ha(e se(eral di""erent con"igurations2 his means some may use one card o(er another, or maybe +ust use a di""erent number o" some cards2 he dec. type is the same, but the e7act con"iguration may (ary "rom dec. to dec.2 here may not be a HbestI (ersion, but instead, se(eral tuned (ersions o" the dec. which operate well2 1n Magic, there is no best dec.2 1" there were, e(eryone would play itG here are dominating dec.s, howe(er2 6hen a dec. dominates, people o"ten play a dec. that wins against the dominating dec.2 his is o"ten called a metagame dec.2 @"ten the tournament en(ironment turns into a game o" roc.-paper-scissors where there is a dec. designed to beat the metagame dec., but loses to the dominating dec.2 he *81 tries to eliminate this "rom happening by banning cards "rom dec. construction, which are too power"ul2 1n a suitable "ield, there are many possible dec. types2 &ome may be control strategies, some may be creature swarm strategies, and some may be completely combination based2 hat means that the dec. is designed to set up a combination o" cards, which when put together, guarantee (ictory2

0?/09

@"ten it is said that swarm beats control, control beats combo, and combo beats swarm2 hat is +ust a generalization, and some dec.s per"orm better than others do2 *etermining which dec. is best to play in a tournament reDuires some simple thought2 here is no e7act way to determine which dec. to play unless you .now what other people are playing, and what your odds are o" beating them2 And still, you only get an appro7imation2 More importantly than choosing the dec. is the dec. construction aspect o" Magic2 &electing which cards to use "or a dec. means trying to ma7imize e""iciency and e""ecti(eness2 Ksing cards which are o(erall e""ecti(e means trying to "ind a balance between general use"ulness and situational use"ulness2 8ombined with proper management o" resources, creating a dec. that wins is a comple7 tas.2 hat is o"ten why people rely on dec.s that ha(e already pro(en themsel(es2 6hich is more e""ecti(e though, designing your own rogue ,original- dec. or using a stoc. ,"amiliar- dec.9 Most people agree that each has its own inherent ad(antages2 &toc. dec.s ha(e already pro(en themsel(es, so one only needs to be able to play the dec. well in order to succeed with it2 Howe(er, not .nowing the dec. well is a disad(antage2 6hen you build your own dec. you .now why the cards are there since you put them there2 Aot only that, but someone you "ace in a tournament will most li.ely .now the e7act contents o" your dec. i" you play a stoc. dec.2 1" not that, he will .now e7actly how to beat it, which cards to deal with "irst, and the li.e2 1" you play a dec. you made yoursel", the person will not .now i" you ha(e something more threatening coming up2 He will ha(e to guess and ma.e tough +udgment calls2 Jamie 6a.e"ield is a Pro our player who has been renowned "or his success with rogue dec.s2 he dec. Jamie has been "amous "or is a green control dec. he calls H&ecret =orceI2 Ksing large green creatures and utility, the dec. is able to wrec. most o" the popular dec.s2 6hen he "irst made his appearance with this dec., people did not .now how to deal with it since they had ne(er seen it be"ore2 he result was that since his dec. was at least eDually e""ecti(e, but not .nown to the opponent, he won2 Jamie .new what was in his opponentsF dec.s2 Howe(er, that same in"ormation they did not .now about him2 he surprise "actor won him many games, and Duali"ied him "or Pro our; Aew Bor.2 Ksually, though, rogue dec.s ha(e limited success2 &till, the respect "actor is great "or those who can design new dec.s, play them well, and win games2 1t is easier "or someone to ta.e a dec. already in e7istence and play it to per"ection than "or the same person to design a dec. and win +ust as much2 he reward in the latter case is that the person can truly call the dec. his own2

!ec"building: !ec" $rchetypes and !ec" %trategy

6hile it is impossible to classi"y e(ery dec. into a concrete category, the (ast ma+ority o" tournament-le(el dec.s "all into one o" three categories2 here are control dec.s, aggressi(e dec.s, and combo dec.s2 6hile it is not a de"inite roc.-paperscissors scenario, aggressi(e dec.s tend to beat control dec.s more o"ten than not2 Howe(er, it really depends on which .inds o" dec.s they are2 8ontrol dec.s can o"ten win against combo dec.s but only i" there is a lot o" countermagic in the control dec.2 8ombo dec.s can o"ten win against aggressi(e dec.s simply because they can ignore the pressure and win immediately at a certain point2 he control dec. utilizes cards that can neutralize the opponentFs threats2 8ounterspells, creature elimination, and other threat neutralization cards "orm the bac.bone o" a control dec.2 *irect damage can be used de"ensi(ely to destroy creatures, but has the "le7ibility o" being used to damage the opponent i" necessary2 Blue-red dec.s were once a popular phenomenon based on this theory2 8ounterspells could ta.e care o" any ma+or threats while direct damage either destroyed opposing creatures or wor.ed at "inishing o"" the opponent directly2 8ards that can tap creatures or pre(ent them "rom attac.ing are also use"ul in a control dec.2 hreat management is the critical idea here2 Being able to deal with opposing threats means pre(enting the opponent "rom winning2 By being able to pre(ent the opponent "rom winning, the control player allows himsel" to win2 How the control player wins is usually unimportant2 A single large creature is usually "air game, while cards such as Millstone&'( are also popular in this .ind o" strategy, in order to run the opponent out o" cards2 6hile damage is the most common method o" (ictory, "orcing the opponent to not be able to draw a card is an o"ten-o(erloo.ed method o" winning2 8ontrol dec.s can be any color, but o"ten use blue "or countermagic2 6hite has mass destruction cards such as Armageddon and 6rath o" 4od to destroy lands and creatures, red has direct damage to augment countermagic, and blac. has discard and more e""icient creature remo(al2 4reen is not too popular as a control color but has cards such 6all o" Blossoms &)( that ma.e "or good de"ense2 Aggressi(e dec.s o"ten ta.e the "orm o" a creature swarm strategy2 1" you can present the opponent with more threats than he can deal with, you will be able to de"eat his control strategy2 8on(ersely, though, i" the control player can assert himsel" be"ore the swarm strategy wins, the control player can ta.e (ictory "or himsel"2 &ometimes the game is not o(er immediately

01/09

a"ter it seems the control player has his plan wor.ing, it can happen that the swarm player uses a snea.y tactic in order to win his (ictory bac.2 Ksually a 6rath o" 4od will put a gaping hole in the creature-based dec.Fs plan by destroying all the creatures he has already played2 Howe(er, once more creatures hit the table the control player will either ha(e to come up with another 6rath or lots o" creature elimination2 &ometimes the aggressi(e dec. ta.es on other "orms2 A dec. relying mostly or e(en totally upon direct damage cards can be e""ecti(e2 1n this case, creature elimination attempts are "utile2 A HburnI dec. can cast lots o" direct damage spells li.e &hoc., !ightning Bolt, and =ireblast&*( with one simple goal; o bring the opponent "rom 0? to ? li"e2 6ith plenty o" Mountains in this all red dec., =ireblast ma.es "or a great "inisher2 1n order to beat a burn dec., the control dec. has to either use a lot o" countermagic, or a lot o" li"e gain2 Another aggressi(e dec., usually a creature swarm dec., will ha(e a greater chance o" winning against a burn dec.2 Bringing out large amounts o" "ast creatures can o"ten o(erwhelm the burn dec., and "orce the burn player to be de"ensi(e2 By "orcing the aggressi(e player to play de"ensi(ely, that puts a large hole in his plans and ruins his strategy2 &ometimes, howe(er, the creature swarm dec. will get a slow start and the burn dec. will win2 Anything can happen in the world o" Magic2 he third ma+or type o" dec. is the combo dec.2 6hile many players "rown upon many .inds o" combo dec.s, this reigns to be one o" the most e""ecti(e strategies in Magic2 @(er the course o" Magic history there ha(e been many "amous Magic dec.s based around combos2 6hile 1 will not go into detail about them, 1 will e7plain the concept2 C(i Mowshowitz, a student at 8olumbia Kni(ersity, designed a dec. in 199: that he dubbed urboC(i2 he dec. brought out a card called *ream Halls &+( (ery "ast, which allowed both players to play spells practically "ree2 he dec. drew lots and lots o" cards up until the point where it could either create a lot o" mana to win with a large direct damage spell, or ma.e the opponent run out o" cards2 6ith a large mana engine, anything is possible2 1" C(i played against a creature swarm dec., he would +ust ignore the threat and win third or "ourth turn, be"ore his opponent had any chance o" winning2 &ince the creature swarm dec. o""ered no threats, he was completely sa"e "rom its simplistic strategy2 )(en still, the dec. had some countermagic in it in order to sa(e itsel" +ust in case2 Against a control dec., though, the dec. became a lot tougher to play2 1" the opponent played his cards right he could easily win2 *ream Halls helped the countermagic user more than C(i2 he dec. was o.ay but not as good as other combo dec.s such as Prosperous Bloom, named by two o" the main cards in it, Prosperity&,( and 8ada(erous Bloom&-(2 his dec. was (ery "amous, and brought Mi.e !ong (ictory at Pro our; Paris2 By generating a large amount o" mana with a card combination that +ust about wor.s itsel" together (ery easily, this dec. was power"ul in its day2 @" course, there were ways to beat it, by using e""ecti(e enchantment remo(al and countermagic2 Mi.e .new how to play his dec. to per"ection and too. on the competition his best2 6hile combo dec.s, creature dec.s, and control dec.s are the three main types o" dec.s which ha(e presented themsel(es, there are many dec.s which "all into more than one category, and e(en some which "all into none o" the categories2 Howe(er, it is sa"e to generalize that the (ast ma+ority o" dec.s are one o" these types2 1 ha(e played many dec.s and 1 see that these .inds o" dec.s stand out about all others2 How does a gi(en dec. per"orm9 hat is the ne7t Duestion 1 will attempt to answer2

2ootnotes: Millstone; Arti"act, 02 Pay 0 and tap to ta.e the top 0 cards "rom any playerFs dec. and put them in his discard pile2 6all o" Blossoms; 8reature - 6all, 142 6hen 6all o" Blossoms comes into play, draw a card2 ?/52 ,6alls cannot attac.-2 =ireblast; 1nstant, 5<<2 *oes 5 damage to a creature or player2 8aster can sacri"ice two Mountains instead o" paying the casting cost2 *ream Halls; )nchantment, 3KK2 1nstead o" paying the casting cost o" a spell, any player may choose to discard a card that shares one or more color with the spell2 Prosperity; &orcery, LK2 )ach player draws L cards2 8ada(erous Bloom; )nchantment, 3B42 <emo(e a card in your hand "rom the game to get 0 green or blac. mana2

!ec"building: !ec" Comparison and 3inning 7atios

A good dec. needs to be able to not only ha(e a good chance o" winning o(erall, but it also needs to ha(e a good chance o" winning against the most popular dec.s2 1" H*raw-4oI ,a popular blue control dec.- is the dominant dec., playing a combination dec. such as Prosperous Bloom is usually a bad idea2 )(en i" Bloom may win about $#Q o" the time against all

00/09

the other dec.s, it is no good i" it cannot beat the most popular dec. consistently2 @" course, no one dec. is usually e(er dominant2 o date, only twice was there a dec. that truly dominated the tournament scene2 1n Ao(ember-*ecember o" 199:, a"ter the release o" the KrzaFs &aga standalone e7pansion, a completely o(erpowered combo dec. based around a card called olarian Academy&'( emerged2 his was by "ar the best dec., beating e(erything else hands down2 1n the summer o" 199', a dec. based around Aecropotence&)( ga(e the card popularity, and the combined elements o" total resource destruction made this dec. dominant2 Mainly, a dominant situation only e7isted with these two dec.s2 @therwise, there ha(e been popular dec.s, but ne(er a dominating dec. Duite the way these dec.s dominated2 hat being said, what is the best way to see how e""ecti(e your dec. is against a "ield o" other dec.s9 he "irst ob(ious step is to .now how to play your dec. as e""ecti(e as possible2 By playing the dec. against (arious other dec.s, you need to learn e(ery dec.Fs strengths and wea.nesses2 @nce you .now that, you can capitalize on these areas and play your dec. to ma7imum e""ecti(eness2 A"ter youF(e done all your playtesting, you need to "igure out the most popular dec.s and ma.e sure your dec. ,and/or sideboard- can handle them2 1" you .eep losing to the most popular dec.s, you cannot possibly win a tournament2 =or this purpose, 1 played my red control dec. many games in order to demonstrate whether playing it in a tournament would be a good idea2 1 came to the conclusion that it is a "airly good dec., though it can by no means handle the competition hands down2 he players 1 played against had di""erent dec.s2 Because o" this, the dec.Fs per"ormance is better analyzed by (iewing the particular dec.s 1 played against2 A"ter playing thirty games against (arious players with (arious dec.s, this is how 1 "ared against all the players, and the most common dec.s;

>incent Matty Mi.e <obert Jay 6illie Andre hiago 3-? 1??Q 0-? 0-? 3-0 3-0 5-# ?-0 ?-0 ?Q

1??Q 1??Q '?Q

#?Q 55Q ?Q

&$ = $ggressiBe !ec": C = Control !ec": M = Miscellaneous: F = Combo !ec"(

Maiden-8 Aecro-8 Blac.-A &tompy-A *eath-8 &ligh-A Andre-M 0-? 1??Q 3-0 '?Q 3-0 '?Q 3-3 #?Q 1-0 33Q ?-3 ?Q ?-0 ?Q

Here are brie" e7planations "or these dec.s; he "irst dec. was a blue dec. based around the opponent ha(ing lots o" cards in hand through (arious methods and ta.ing damage "rom 1ron Maiden&*( because o" it2 he second dec. was a modern (ersion o" the Aecropotence dec., designed around destroying the opponentFs hand and creatures, gaining li"e and drawing cards2 he third dec. was a (ery "ast blac. weenie swarm dec.2 he "ourth dec. was an e(en "aster green weenie swarm dec. nic.named H&tompyI2 he "i"th dec. was a dec. called H*eathI with many di""erent creatures, &ur(i(al o" the =ittest &+( and !i(ing *eath&,(2 hat lets the player stu"" his discard pile "ull o" creatures then bring them into play2 he si7th dec. was &ligh2 &ligh is an aggressi(e red weenie swarm and direct damage dec.2 he name originated "rom a man named Paul &ligh who created a red control dec. during the summer o" 199'2 he dec. e(ol(ed into the mega-aggressi(e modern day weenie swarm dec., but the name stayed2 he last dec. was AndreFs own creation; a blac. and white dec. based around <emembrance&-(, Phyre7ian <eclamation&.( and many e""ecti(e creatures2 his pro(ed to be (ery e""ecti(e "or him2

03/09

My o(erall win ratio was 1$ to 132 he "act that 1 won #$Q o" the games 1 played is nice to .now, but not too use"ul2 How 1 per"ormed against the a(erage dec. is more use"ul2 By a(eraging how 1 did against each dec. and putting it together, 1 would ha(e a rough estimate o" how 1 would do at a tournament against an a(erage "ield2 he result is that 1 win 53Q against the a(erage dec.2 his does not ta.e into account the sub-standard dec.s 1 play against e(ery now and then, as 1 would ne(er e7pect to play against anything li.e that in a tournament2 A player with little e7perience is not li.ely to pay the admission "ee "or a tournament, when he is more li.ely to +ust play "or "un2 hat being said, it is not a good idea to include those wins, as in"lating my win ratio does not help me as a player2 )(en still, a much larger number o" games are necessary to get a better appro7imation "or my true win percentage2 his procedure assumes there is an e(en "ield, howe(er2 Perhaps 1 would end up ha(ing a higher chance o" winning i" there were more dec.s in the tournament that 1 had a higher chance o" winning againstG 4i(en a "ield o" #?Q 1ron Maiden dec.s, 0#Q blac. weenie swarm dec.s, 1#Q &ligh, and 1?Q *eath, 1 would ha(e a higher chance o" winning2 @" course, *eath and &ligh are a lot more popular than Maiden and blac. swarm2 4i(en two tournament scenes with di""erent percentages o" these dec.s, with my dec. being the only red control dec., 1 will gi(e a sample situation2 <ecall that "inding the appro7imate chance o" winning the tournament consists o" multiplying the chance o" winning against a dec. by the chance o" playing the dec., and adding up that total "or e(ery dec.2 1 can put this into mathematical notation as a <iemann sum because 1 am summing up the chance o" winning A di""erent dec.s multiplied by the chance 1 will play against them;

=,M- represents the amount o" the dec. in the "ield 8,M- represents your chance o" winning against the gi(en dec. *ec. Aame &ituation U1 ,4ood- &ituation U0 ,Bad-

&ur(i(al/!i(ing *eath 1?Q T 33Q S 323Q #?Q T 33Q S 1'2$Q <ed H&lighI 1ron Maiden 1#Q T ?Q S ?Q 0#Q T ?Q S ?Q

#?Q T 1??Q S #?Q 1?Q T '?Q S 'Q

Blac. &peed 6eenie 0#Q T '?Q S 1#Q 1#Q T '?Q S 9Q otal 6in Percentage ':23Q 312$Q

here"ore the amount o" each dec. at the tournament scene can drastically a""ect my chance o" winning the tournament2 he <iemann sum is an important idea here, as it is used to sum up all the possibilities into a total chance amount which represents the probability o" me winning the hypothetical Magic tournament2

2ootnotes: olarian Academy; !egendary !and ,there may only be one in play at a time-2 ap "or one blue mana "or e(ery arti"act you ha(e in play2 Aecropotence; )nchantment, BBB2 &.ip your draw phase2 Pay 1 li"e; *raw a card during your discard phase2 1ron Maiden; Arti"act, 32 All opponents ta.e 1 damage at the end o" their up.eep "or e(ery card in their hand more than "our2 &ur(i(al o" the =ittest; )nchantment, 42 4; *iscard a creature to search your dec. "or any creature, show it to all players, and put it in your hand2 !i(ing *eath; &orcery, 3BB2 &witch all creatures in play with those in the discard piles2 <emembrance; )nchantment, 362 6hene(er one o" your creatures lea(es play you can search your dec. "or another copy and put it in your hand2 Phyre7ian <eclamation; )nchantment, B2 1B; Pay 0 li"e to ta.e a creature "rom your discard pile and put it in your hand2

05/09

!ec"building: Card 4fficiency and 7esource Management

6hen choosing cards "or a dec., the player needs to decide which cards will do the best +ob2 hat is to say, i" 1 want to use white creature remo(al, which card is most e""ecti(e "or this purpose9 6hich countermagic cards will "it into my dec. the best without a mana problem9 6hich creatures will wor. best in my dec.9 hese Duestions relate to the idea o" card e""iciency2 4etting the best possible card "or the lowest possible cost means the highest e""iciency2 1n current Magic, many cards that are (ery e""icient are no longer printed because they were so power"ul2 &words to Plowshares, which 1 mentioned earlier, is one o" these cards2 =or one white mana, this card can remo(e any creature "rom the game2 he li"e gain simply does not balance out this card2 8hances are, you may be playing a control dec. and you donFt care how many li"e points your opponent has2 his card will simply .eep you ali(e and that is all that matters2 8ombined with cards li.e imetwister&'(, this card is e(en more power"ul because you get bac. your &words and your opponentFs creatures are hopelessly gone "or the game2 imetwister was another card which ceased being printing, albeit a lot sooner than the &words2 6hen choosing which creatures to use "or a dec., i" any, the best ones are ob(iously ones with a higher power and toughness to casting cost ratio2 =or a completely aggressi(e dec., only sheer power is o" importance2 he almighty Ball !ightning &)( boasts a power o" si7 with a casting cost o" three2 =or "ast red dec.s, this has always been a popular card2 1" the de"ending player cannot deal with it he will ta.e si7 damage, which is about one third o" his beginning li"e pointsG 8ombined with direct damage spells li.e !ightning Bolt which deals three damage "or one mana, and =ireblast which can deal "our damage "or no mana ,at the slight cost o" losing your own land-, "ast red dec.s were popular while those cards were in-print2 6inning the game is usually the result o" the resource sacri"ice "rom =ireblast2 he popularity o" the dec. was because o" the supreme card e""iciency o" cards li.e these2 @" course, a"ter these cards were ta.en out o" print and replaced by newer sets, this dec. was no longer (iable2 Ksually creatures with a casting cost o" one will ha(e a power o" one2 &ometimes they will ha(e a power o" two, but at a cost2 1t may not always be able to be used to attac., or it may deal damage to its controller2 he purest breed o" aggressi(e dec.s will ta.e blazing speed at any cost2 &uch are "ast blac., red, and green dec.s2 Blue and white do not ha(e any e7tremely e""icient creatures, but they do ha(e creatures with good utility2 hat ma.es blue and white creature-based dec.s better as a de"ensi(e strategy2 Aggressi(e dec.s utilize low-cost creatures and damage spells2 *e"ensi(e dec.s utilize high-e""iciency threat management remo(al spells2 *isenchant&*( is another prime e7ample o" a popular remo(al spell2 Just as &words to Plowshares is to creatures, *isenchant is "or arti"acts and enchantments2 Howe(er, creatures are usually a bigger threat in Magic, so *isenchant is a more balanced card2 hat is why it has been in the current tournament en(ironment since the beginning o" the game2 Being able to ma7imize what resources you ha(e a(ailable is what ma.es your strategy more e""ecti(e2 By being able to remo(e more than one opposing card with only one o" yours, you gain card ad(antage2 8ard ad(antage is not the only .ind o" ad(antage, though2 By using cards which .eep the opponentFs resources una(ailable ,such as 6inter @rb &+(-, you gain time ad(antage2 his means that since your opponent cannot play his cards as usual, he is delayed and you gain more time to do whate(er you ha(e to within your strategy2 his also means that the opponent will o"ten need more time to react to your other threats2 Bet another .ind o" time ad(antage lies in ta.ing multiple turns2 1" you can ta.e more turns than the opponent can, you ha(e more time to ma7imize your strategyFs e""ecti(eness2 his is a ma+or resource ad(antage because it allows you to bring more resources into play2 By ta.ing another turn you get to attac. again, play another land, and draw another card2 his is why the card ime 6al.&,( was banned "rom tournament play2 =or two mana it let the caster ta.e another turn2 Howe(er, a more balanced (ersion was later printed, called ime 6arp&-(2 =or "i(e mana this had the same e""ect2 By delaying when the player can use it, it balanced out its ad(antage with a high cost2 <esource ad(antage can be gained either through drawing more cards, remo(ing multiple cards with only one, or by denying the opponent resources2 a.ing e7tra turns is another "orm o" denying the opponent resources, in addition to land destruction, hand destruction, and creature destruction2 1n order to maintain control o" the pro(erbial game board, cards that are able to ma.e the opponent discard, lose land, and lose creatures are a (aluable resource in Magic when used e""ecti(ely2 Many dec.s are based around one or more o" these concepts2 6hen well tuned and well played, these dec.s o"ten lead to great success2 Aonetheless, there are many other (iable strategies, such as the aggressi(e one; o(erwhelming the opponent with many threats2 6hile there may not be a best strategy in Magic, there are se(eral to choose "rom2 How the player uses the strategy is what will lead to his (arying degree o" success2

0#/09

2ootnotes: imetwister; &orcery, 0K2 )ach player shu""les his hand, dec., and discard pile together, and draws se(en cards2 Put imetwister into your new discard pile2 Ball !ightning; 8reature, <<<2 8an attac. the turn it is brought into play2 '/1, rample ,any damage o(er the total toughness o" the creatures bloc.ing it is dealt to the de"ending player-2 *isenchant; 1nstant, 162 *estroy any arti"act or enchantment2 6inter @rb; Arti"act, 02 Players only get to untap one land each untap phase2 ime 6al.; &orcery, 1K2 a.e another turn a"ter this one2 ime 6arp; &orcery, 3KK2 a.e another turn a"ter this one2

The #ig Game:

Probability: %tatistics: Game Theory: and Magic
he "inal Duestion arises; How do all these concepts come together as a whole9 he (arious mathematical aspects o" Magic do not ma.e up the game indi(idually% they do together as pieces o" a puzzle2 hat being said, there e7ists a relation between the (arious mathematical components o" the game2 )ach part o" it helps "orm the "ramewor. o" the basic situations that a Magic player encounters e(ery game2 a.e the "ollowing situation2 Put yoursel" in my shoes2 he date is =ebruary o" 1999 and you are trying to Duali"y "or the Junior &uper &eries2 Bou .now that the ma+ority o" the dec.s will be combination dec.s based around getting a combo out and winning on the third or "ourth turn2 Ksing your .nowledge o" game theory, probability, and statistics, what dec. will you play9 6hat will your chances be o" winning9 Here is how the situation was; he "ield was made up o" about 5? people2 1t would be a "air estimation to say that 3? were playing combo dec.s, based around winning (ery "ast with a card combination2 Mnowing that most creature-based dec.s will lose to combo dec.s, it is also a "air assumption to say that there would not be many creature-based dec.s2 hat prediction was true2 here"ore, a control dec. appeared to be the best dec. to ha(e played2 1 ended up playing a dec. with 0? countermagic cards in it, with (ery little creature remo(al2 hat way 1 could counter most o" the combo threats, and present my own three-card instant win combo2 1t was a control dec. that had the capability to with instantly with a combo2 he massi(e amount o" countermagic made it (ery strong against combo dec.s, since they would ha(e trouble getting their combo out2 1 had playtested with Ce( 4urwitz o(er thirty games against his combo dec., which he had already Duali"ied with2 1 won about si7ty percent o" the games, simply because his dec. was both (ery "ast and had the capability to win against control dec.s2 4i(en that 1 could beat the a(erage combo dec. $#Q o" the time, and that $#Q o" the "ield would be combo, 1 had one piece o" the puzzle sol(ed2 he other 0#Q o" the "ield would be a random assortment o" dec.s2 &ome creature swarm dec.s, some control dec.s, and some other miscellaneous dec.s2 &ome which 1 could beat almost all o" the time, some which 1 had little chance against2 o say 1 would win 0#Q against "ast dec.s and $#Q against slow dec.s was a "air assumption2 1 did not e7pect to play against any random dec.s in most o" the tournament simply because they would be eliminated (ery soon2 here"ore my chances were about this much; *ec. ype >arious 8ombo *ec. >arious &peed *ec. >arious 8ontrol *ec. otal 6in Percentage 8hance o" 6in T 8hance o" Match-up $#Q T $#2?Q S #'23Q 0#Q T 102#Q S 321Q $#Q T 102#Q S 925Q ':2:Q

his ga(e me an e7tremely high chance o" winning2 Mnowing the metagame, that is, what dec.s other people were going to be using, was an e7tremely e""ecti(e tactic2 6hile 1 would lose to "ast dec.s, 1 guaranteed mysel" a win against the slower dec.s and especially the combo-reliant dec.s2 1n round 1, 1 played against a combo dec. called H&piral BlueI and won2 1n round 0, 1 played against another &piral Blue dec. and lost, as the dec. was played by a pretty good player, and the only other match 1 had played against this dec. was in round 12 1n round 3, 1 played against a "ast red dec. and lost2 hat was the small price 1 paid "or playing the metagame2 Howe(er, 1 "aced two other combo dec.s in round 5 and # and won against them both2 he 3-0 record put me into the top :2 1 had won $#Q against the combo dec.s ,3-1- so my estimate was (ery good2 1n the top :, 1 played against a control dec. and won, and then two combo dec.s and won against both o" them2 he last round was, incidentally, the same opponent "rom

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round 02 his time around, 1 got luc.ier perhaps2 6hate(er it was, 1 had won because 1 .new the chances and played the metagame correctly2 Mnowing which dec. to play is a de"inite game theory application2 he decision ma.ing process "ormed by game matrices and relati(e probabilities constitutes a calculation o" chance2 he statistics that 1 used in order to "ormulate my chances o" winning against each dec. are stri.ingly similar to those used during my win-loss ratio calculation e7periment2 &uch a techniDue is (ery handy when trying to win a ma+or tournament2 6hile 1 do not win them on a regular basis, 1 do "airly consistently2 &tatistics and probability are only an a(erage2 hey are not a "i7ed (alue2 1nstead, they ser(e as an appro7imation2 Mnowing how to use them is what ma.es a player more in"ormed2

Math and the $Berage Player

By now 1 ha(e clearly demonstrated how math is a big part o" Magic2 =rom probability, decision ma.ing, and strategic applications, it is apparent that math "orms the bac.bone o" what ma.es the game so intellectual2 Howe(er, the Duestion arises to whether players actually identi"y and use the math components2 o "ind out about how much math is actually seen by players o" the game, 1 conducted a poll on he Magic *o+o2 1 as.ed players to send me responses to the "ollowing Duestions; 6hat is your name and age9 How long ha(e you been playing Magic9 6hat is your bac.ground in math ,what courses ha(e you ta.en-9 o what e7tent to you thin. math is an important part o" strategy and game play9 How, i" at all, does math play a role in your game play9 )7plain2 *o you thin. someone who is more .nowledgeable in math has a higher playing potential than someone who does not does9 6hy or why not9 his sur(ey was posted on he Magic *o+o ,www2thedo+o2com- on May 15th2 @(er the course o" May 15 through the morning o" June 9, 1 recei(ed 1:0 responses2 hey came "rom players o" (arying age and e7perience2 Most recognized the mathematical aspects% yet most agreed that math does not ma.e "or a better player2 8ritical thin.ing s.ills are the basis o" being a better player2 Aonetheless most recognized that math does e7ist behind the scenes o" the game2 A"ter all, <ichard 4ar"ield, the designer o" the game, is a graduate student in mathematicsG A"ter reading the responses, 1 sorted them out in hopes o" drawing conclusions2 he "ollowing are my analysis o" the in"ormation 1 gained "rom this sur(ey; IC $ge distribution 10-1# 1'-19 0?-03 05-0$ 0:-31 30-3# 3'-39 5?-53 55O 1:2'Q 0'2'Q 012#Q 1025Q 132'Q 52?Q 12$Q 121Q ?2'Q he a(erage age o" the Magic player is a high school or college le(el student2 here were "ewer middle school and graduate le(el students that answered the sur(ey2 here were e(en "ewer older players, though there were some2 he high school to college range can be attributed to the targeted interest group2 Most males this age are interested in strategy gaming "ar more than their older and younger counterparts2 Aote that 1 did not include gender in this poll2 he ma+ority ,more than 9#Q- was males2 =emales generally do not constitute much o" the portion o" Magic players, generally because they do not ta.e as great an interest in strategy games2 hese are +ust statistics, not an opinion2 IIC 45perience distribution ?-1 years 1-0 years 0-3 years 3-5 years 5-# years #-' years #23Q 1029Q 1'25Q 0#21Q 312'Q :2:Q

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Please note that L-B years denotes greater than L, and less than or eDual to B2 here"ore 0-3 years means more than but not including 0 years, up to and including 3 years o" e7perience playing Magic2 1t appears that the ma+ority o" players ha(e been around since when the <e(ised ,3rd- edition had been released2 1 .now that the popularity o" the game had actually pea.ed then, so these results do in "act ma.e sense2 Part o" the result may be that this only represents the "ield o" *o+o readers, which it does, but still it seems "airly accurate as a general distribution2 IIIC #ac"ground "nowledge distribution Middle &chool High &chool 8alculus 8ollege !e(el 4raduate !e(el 32?Q 3323Q 1529Q 3:21Q 1?2$Q

Middle &chool indicates general middle school math education2 High &chool indicates &eDuential Math courses 1 through 111, as well as Precalculus2 &imilar algebra, geometry and trigonometry courses correspond as well2 1 chose not to include 8alculus under the category o" college le(el math2 he math le(els seem to correlate directly with the age o" the players2 here"ore the a(erage player can be a high school or college student well educated in mathematics, and has played Magic "or 5 or # years2 1t would appear that an interest in mathematics corresponds with an interest in Magic2 his is usually the case2 People li.e oby 6achter "rom 4reat Aec., AB are not as pro"icient in math and still en+oy the game a great deal2 IEC 7ecogni8ed concepts: use of math: and Biew of importance of math >ery !ittle &omewhat A great deal 8oncept recognition 92?Q Kse o" math 1:21Q 3'2$Q 3123Q 3'21Q #520Q #?2'Q 5325Q

1mportance o" math 0?2#Q

1t is (ery apparent that Magic players recognize the mathematical concepts behind Magic, use these concepts in their game play, and see their relati(e importance2 Beginners may only see the subtleties such as li"e counting, damage dealing, and other addition/subtraction ideas such as creature combat2 More ad(anced players identi"y mana cur(es, casting cost analysis, land ratios, and timing issues2 )7perts see ad(anced probability, statistics, and metagame analysis2 Most players agree that decision ma.ing is superior to mathematical ability when it comes to playing the game2 1n dec.building, mathematical s.ill comes into play more o"ten, though intuition o"ten reigns supreme2 6hile math is a big part o" Magic, it may not necessarily ma.e a better player2 *ecision-ma.ing does, though2 4ame theory, an economics application, is more use"ul to the a(erage player then numerical mathematics2 *ec. creation is where the math comes into play2 4ame mechanics are "ull o" math2 he game play is not as "ull o" math2 6hile beginners only (iew math as li"e totals, e7perts see the big picture2 Math thin.ing s.ills are use"ul in the game either way2 Players use a "air amount o" math either at a conscious or subconscious le(el2 6hile it is an underlying part o" the game, it does not necessarily enhance oneFs playing s.ill to a large degree2 Mnowing math ne(er hurts, though2 1n dec. construction, math is great2 1n playing, "ast arithmetic is also a good thing2 !ogic and reasoning s.ills are also good things to ta.e with you onto the gaming "ield2 Play e7perience is more (aluable than pure mathematical e7perience, though2 All players seem to agree on these ideas2

Personal $pplications
1 will now attempt to answer my own Duestions a"ter doing my research and analysis2 My name is Jon Prywes, and 1 am 1$2 1 ha(e been playing Magic "or "our and a hal" years2 1 ha(e ta.en e(erything up to B8 8alculus and will be ta.ing !inear Algebra in the "all2 1 see math as a (ery important part o" Magic2 Mnowing how to create an e""icient dec. and play it well reDuires a basic understanding o" probability and statistics2 8reating dec.s on your own time can utilize some ma+or mathematical ideas, while in the actual playing area, logic and reasoning are tested (ery intensely2 1 will base my strategy o"ten upon what 1 anticipate my opponent doing2 &ometimes 1 ha(e to "igure out the odds and base my strategy around them2 6hile math is a big part o" my game, 1 donFt thin. that it ma.es me too much o" a better player2 1t may gi(e me an ad(antage against someone who does not .now as much math, but it is de"initely a part o" the game itsel"2

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Mathematical reasoning s.ills are (ery use"ul, and 1 would not be able to play the game as well as 1 do without them2 Ma.ing decisions at lightning speed is something reDuired o" any tournament-le(el Magic player2 1 need to be able to do that a lot2 @ne small mista.e has meant a match loss too many times2 Playing "lawlessly with reasonable speed is a .ey to success2 Being able to acDuire this s.ill reDuires countless hours o" practice, sleep, and a proper diet2 he mathematics are de"initely in there, though2

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