Christopher Monckton Speaking at Bethel University

Apocalypse? NO!
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Dominion of Canada and United States of America2
September/October 2009
"The seeker after truth does not
put his trust in any old consensus:
he questions it, and submits his
learning from it to reason &
demonstration."
banknotes
.com
Scientific
method
“The improver of natural
knowledge absolutely
refuses to acknowledge
authority, as such. For
him, skepticism is the
highest of duties; blind
faith the one
unpardonable sin.”
T.H. Huxley
“You
have
to get
the big
ones
right,
dear!”
Margaret Thatcher
“We cannot
question what
the scientists
say.”
Oliver Letwin,
Tory policy chief 9
Yes
We
Can!
Barack
Hussain al-
Monckton 10
… but
don’t
believe
a word
I say 11
Why the truth
really matters 12
MALARIA
Global annual mortality
Before the DDT ban: 50,000

After the DDT ban: 1,000,000
All excess deaths: 40,000,000

13
WHO lifted the DDT ban
on 15 September 2006
“Quite often in this field
politics comes first and
science second. We must
take a position based on
the science and the data.”
Dr. Arata Kochi, WHO
14
HIV
25,000,000 dead (UNAIDS statistics)
40,000,000 infected (UNAIDS)
7.5% infected south of the Sahara
3.0% infected in Washington DC
1.0% is the epidemic threshold
15
Reuters
16
Hong Kong - 81
Japan - 81
Korea - 77
China - 71
US- 77
Indonesia - 67
Russian Fed. - 65
India - 63
Chad - 44
South Africa - 46
Africa
Life expectancy (years)
v. CO2 emissions (tons per capita) 18
Sierra Leone - 285 Africa India - 90
Chad - 200
China - 36
Child mortality
(per 1000 born) USA - 8
v. CO2 emissions
(tons per capita)
Japan – 9.4
Iceland – 7.7
19
Energy
source:
African Energy
energy transmission:
cycle
Energy
use:
20
If the threat is real,
why need They lie? 21
We’re all
gonna lie!
“Unless we
announce
disasters,
no one will Sir John
listen.” Houghton
We’re all
gonna lie!
“We have to
offer up
scary scenarios”
Stephen Schneider 23
We’re all
gonna lie!
“‘Global warming’
can mean colder. It
can mean drier. It
can mean wetter.
That’s what we’re
dealing with.”
Stephen Guilbeault, Greenpeace, 2005
We’re all
gonna
lah!
“Ah believe
it is appropriate
to have an over-
representation of
factual
presentations on
Al how dangerous it
Gore eeeuurzzz.”
The “Ah
jes’ done
made
it all up” lah
Nahn Lahs:
Gore Judge
Sea level up 20 ft Only after millennia
Pacific atolls evacuated No evidence for it
Ocean conveyor to stop It will slow, not stop
CO2 drove temperature The other way around
Kilimanjaro melting By natural causes
Lake Chad drying up Not ‘global warming’
Katrina anthropogenic No proven link
Polar bears drowning Storm killed 4 bears
Coral reefs bleaching Many causes
The sea- IPCC: 6 cm
level lah sea-level rise
from the great
ice-sheets
in 100 years.
Gore: 610 cm:
100x error!
28
The lah
nailed
Grand
‘The Maximum
Armageddon
scenario that
he depicts is
not based on
any scientific
view.’
Gore disbelieves his
own sea-level lah:
Al Gore’s $4m
St. Regis condo
by the sea, 2005
30
The polar bears lah
“A scientific study shows for
the first time they’re finding
polar bears that have …
drowned, swimming long
distances up to 60 miles
to find the ice.”
31
The lah nailed
Grand
Maximum
Sea ice extent
in the Beaufort Sea
is growing
33
Warm: more polar bears.
Cool: fewer polar bears.
Grand
Maximum
The Grand
Maximum
Kiluhmanjaruh
lah:
“This is Mount
Kilimanjaro more
than 30 years ago,
and more
recently.”
Kilimanjaro summit
temperature, 1979-2006
Grand
Maximum
Grand
Cooling Maximum
over
central
Africa,
1979-2001
NASA
More ice ablated away
before 1936 than after
Grand
Maximum
I’m
still
waitin’,
Al,
baby!
Some lies from the
UN climate panel 40
The ‘Middle Ages
were cooler’ lie
“A major person working in the
area of climate change and
global warming sent me an
astonishing email that said,
‘We have to get rid of the
Medieval Warm Period.’”
David Deming, 2005
Now you see it …
IPCC (1990)
oC
Little Ice Age

Mediaeval warmperiod
1000 1300 1600 1900 42

… now you don’t!
IPCC (2001)
43
How the UN bent
the “hockey stick”
390x
1x
44
The computer always
drew hockey sticks:
Temperature proxy data
Random red noise
45
“CENSORED_DATA”
(and MWP) restored:
MWP
46
NRC and EPA bent the data too ...
47
700 scientists: MWP was real
48
The “IPCC is peer
reviewed” lie
Grand
Maximum
The ‘2500 IPCC
scientists’ lie
IPCC climate sensitivity estimate
rests on just 4 scientific papers
CO2 forcing coefficient 1 paper
Planck parameter 2 papers
Feedback multiplier 1 paper
... just 4 papers, not 2500!
The ‘locked-in’
warming in the
‘in the pipeline’ lie
ΔTS,eq = 4.7 ln(836/368) = 3.9 Cº
ΔTS,tra = [SPM3, sc. A2] = 3.4 Cº
Warming in the pipeline = 0.5 Cº
The attribution lie
BEFORE (#1)
“No study to date has
positively attributed all or
part [of observed climate
change] to anthropogenic
causes.”
IPCC (1995)
The attribution lie
BEFORE (#2)
“When will an anthropogenic
effect on climate be
identified? It is not surprising
that the best answer to this
question is, ‘We do not know.’
IPCC (1995)
The attribution lie
AFTER
“The body of … evidence
now points to a discernible
human influence on global
climate.”
IPCC (1995) rewrite
The “it’s
getting
worse”
lie
25 yr
50 yr
100 yr
150 yr
IPCC (2007)
The lie nailed
Some lies from the
scientific community
58
The startpoint lie
Atlantic
Category
3, 4, & 5
hurricanes,
1970-2005
Webster
et al., 2006
The lie nailed
Prediction lie, 1988
o
C A
1.4
1.2 B
This
1.0
0.8
bogus
0.6 C graph
0.4 started
0.2 the scare
0.0 A: Hansen's worst case
-0.2 B : Hansen's likely outturn
C : Hansen: CO2 stabilized
Hansen
-0.4
D : Observed (US NCDC)
(1988)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
The lie nailed, 2006
o
C A
1.4
1.2 B
1.0 Wrong
0.8 then,
C
0.6 wrong
D
0.4 now
0.2
0.0 A : Hansen's worst case
NCDC
-0.2 B : Hansen's likely outturn
C : Hansen: CO2 stabilized
(2007)
D : Observed (US NCDC)
-0.4
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
NOAA ‘it ain’t cooling’ lie
The lie nailed:
NOAA ‘warming
oceans’ lie
NOAA
2009
The lie nailed
ARGO, 2009
The ‘data
revisionism’ lie
Grand
Maximum
Wielicki, Wong et al. (2002)

2002
Wielicki, Wong et al. (2002)

Wong, Wielicki,
et al. (2006)
2006
The Arrhenius lie
“Svante Arrhenius, the
Swedish theoretical chemist,
in 1897 ... calculated doubling the
5C CO2 level ... would lead to a
temperature rise round the
globe. It was a brilliant
piece of work.”
Sir David King, science
advisor to Tony Bliar, 2005
5.0 C
1.6 C Arrhenius (1906)
70
The ‘consensus’ lie:
‘Global warming’
will be catastrophic
The lie nailed:
“Global climate change” papers: 539
Evidence for “catastrophe”: 0
Schulte (2008)
The “science is
settled” lie:
1896 Arrhenius 5.0 C
1988 Hansen 4.2 C
1995 IPCC 3.8 C
2001 IPCC 3.5 C
2x CO2
2007 IPCC 3.26 C
2008 Hansen 2.5 C
1906 1.6 C Arrhenius
0.5 CMonckton, Armstrong+, Douglass+, Spencer+, Paltridge+, Lindzen+
The making cooling ...
Grand
Maximum
RAW DATA
... into warming lie:
Grand
Maximum
‘PROCESSED’
1999
Grand
Maximum
2008
Grand
Maximum
The dead-tree lie
78
Lying to children
“The more the CO2 in the atmosphere, the

higher the temperature climbed. The less
CO2, the more the temperature fell. You can
see this relationship for yourself by looking
at the graph.”
Laurie David (2007)
The truth about
temperature 80
‘Global warming’
... a brief
history
Prof. M.I. Bhat (2007)
81
For 600m years, it was
7 C warmer than today
82
4 interglacials were ~3 C
warmer than the present
CO2
Petit et al., 1999
Temperature
83
Bronze Age, Roman era,
Middle Ages: warmer too
Dansgaard et al. (1969)

84
and Schonweise (1995)
Temperature rose 2.2 ºC
in the 35 years 1700-1735
Central England Temperature Series
... and just 0.6 C in 1906-2006

85
150 years’ data
The truth about
today’s climate 87
Warming? What warming?
From
Dr.
Willie
Soon
(2007)
It’s cooling!
89
Arctic sea-ice extent is just fine:
steady for a decade
Arctic summer sea-ice area
is just fine: it is recovering
from a 30-year low in 2007
Greenland
ice sheet
is just fine
Grand
“Colors indicate ice- Maximum
sheet elevation
change rate in
cm/year … from …
satellite altimeter
data, 1992-2003. Johann-
The spatially essen et
averaged increase is al. (2005)
5.4 0.2 cm/year.”
93
Eurasian snow cover
is just fine
Grand
Maximum
Rutgers
Snow &
Ice Lab
Antarctic sea ice is just fine
Grand
Maximum
University of Illinois
Global sea ice: is just
fine: a 30yr heartbeat
University of Illinois
Hurricanes – just fine
Barrier Reef is just fine
Grand
Maximum
The truth revealed:
The latest science 99
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
radiance striking the ground
UN is out of date
explain recent temperature changes
1
Computers
must fail
It’s long proven that models
cannot predict the climate
Pythagoras’ theorem
is demonstrably true
Aryabhatta, 5th Century
Monckton, 2009
CHAOS!
“In view of the inevitable
inaccuracy and incompleteness
of weather observations,
precise, very-long-range
weather forecasting would seem
to be non-existent.”
Lorenz (1963)
Even the simplest
chaotic equation ...
f(z)  z 2 +c
Top c = 0.2500739507702906
left: + 0.0000010137903618 i
Bottom c = 0.2500739507703702
right: + 0.0000010137903127 i
Mandelbrot (1992)
… may have
complex output:
106
107
“No super-
computer,
however
powerful, is able to
prove definitively a
simplistic hypo-
thesis that says the
greenhouse effect
is responsible for
warming.”
Syun-Ichi Akasofu
Garbage in, garbage out!
High climate sensitivity
is an input to the models,
not an output from them:
The models are tuned to assume a

high climate sensitivity, so a high
climate sensitivity is what they find.
Akasofu (2008)
… and the last word
on climate modeling
“In climate research and
modeling, we should recognize
that we are dealing with a coupled
non-linear chaotic system, and
therefore that the long-term
prediction of future climate states
is not possible.”
IPCC (2001)
It’s the Sun, stupid!
2
Changes in sunlight reaching the
surface decide temperature changes
Grand Minimum to Grand
Maximum: 300 years’ warming
Grand
Hathaway (2004) Maximum
Solar radiance at the surface
vs. mean surface temperature
Grand
Maximum
Correlation does not
necessarily imply causation
The fact of warming does
not tell us the cause
Solar changes
cause most climate change
The Sun caused
today’s global warming
Today’s warming is normal,
not unusual
Today’s global warming
will end soon
IAU
(2004)
It’s not CO2!
3 ‘Sinks’ take up half

the CO2 we emit
CO2 is only
a trace gas
CO2 in the atmosphere
as % by volume
1750 2009 Change

0.03% 0.04% +0.01%
CO2 concentration rise is half
of what the UN has forecast
The sea is cooling
... but all UN models

predict ocean warming
4
How ARGO
buoys work
The oceans
are cooling ...
... so sea level has not
risen for four years
No ocean heat buildup
for 50 years
Douglass & Knox, 2009

Cloud albedo 5
feedback is negative
... but all UN models

predict positive feedback
Who would
like to do
some nice
equations?
6
Missing ‘hot-spot’
The tropical upper air is
not warming as predicted
at thrice the surface rate
Natural Natural
solar volcanic
forcing forcing
Manmade Manmade
Spot greenhouse ozone
forcing forcing
the
‘hot Manmade
aerosol
5 radiative
forcings
spot’ forcing combined
IPCC (2007) 130

Models
predict
the
‘hot-
spot’
Lee et al.
(2007)
but it is not there:
Hadley Centre: HadAT2
?
MATH CHECK!
7
The entire atmosphere warms the
Earth by only 33 F. Changing just
1/2000 of it can’t warm it by 6 F.
Grand
Maximum
Kiehl
& Trenberth
(1997)
8
THE CLINCHER:
climate sensitivity
explain recent temperature is low
changes
Warming related to change

in outgoing radiation is 1/6
of all UN models’ prediction
If global mean surface
temperature increases,
IT’S THE SUN: changes in
will radiation escaping solar
from Earth to space –
a) Increase?
b) Remain unchanged?
c) Diminish?
Lindzen
& Choi
(2009)
ΔF
ΔFTOA (W m –2)
(W m–2)
11 models Predicted
ratio of
ΔT warming
(K)
ΔT SS (K)
to change
in
outgoing
radiation
Lindzen
& Choi
(2009)
ΔF Observed
(W m–2)
versus
predicted
ratio of
ΔTSS warming
(K) to change
in
outgoing
radiation
Models 1
Models 1
Sun 2
Models1
Sun 2
Sinks 3
Models1
Sun 2
Sinks 3 Seas 4
Models1
Clouds
explain recent temperature
5
changes
Sun 2
Sinks 3 Seas 4
Models1
Hotspot 6
Clouds
5
changes
Sun 2
Sinks 3 Seas 4
Models1
Hotspot 6
Clouds
5
changes
Math 7
Sun 2
Sinks 3 Seas 4
OLR 8
Models1
Hotspot 6
Clouds
5
changes
Math 7
Sun 2
Sinks 3 Seas 4
1 8
6
Unh, Houston ..!5
7
2
3 4
Professor
Antonino
Zichichi
“It is not possible to exclude the
possibility that the observed phenomena
may have natural causes. It may be that
man has little or nothing to do with it.”
IPCC admits ...

“Climate has always varied on

all time-scales, so the observed
changes may be natural.”
Whom the Gods
would destroy ... 152
... they
first
make
mad:
‘We’re seeing the
reality of a lot of the
North Pole starting
to evaporate. ...
They have lanes now
where ships can go
that couldn’t ever
sail through before.
... There’s a lot of
tundra that’s being
held down by that
ice cap.’
The effects of a new ice
age on agriculture and
the supportability of
large human
populations scarcely
need elaboration here.
... A sudden outward
slumping in the
Antarctic ice cap,
induced by added
weight, could generate
a tidal wave of
proportions
unprecedented in
John Holdren recorded history.
The population paradox
156
“Sea
level
will
rise
by 75
meters”
James Hansen
“The
debate is
over. The
science is
certain.
Now we
must act.”
The traffic-light
tendency ...
… call
themselves Green …
… because they’re
too yellow …
… to admit
they’re really Reds
The cost of untruth:
the death of freedom
161
Pointless trillions
Tiny effect on temperature
163
Tiny effect on sea level
164
The ‘clunkers plan
saves money’ lie
25 mpg vs. 15 mpg
@ 12,000 miles/yr: 320 gall
x 700,000 clunkers: 224m gall
/ 40 gall/barrel: 5.6m bbl
x $72/bbl x 5 yr: $2 billion
– scrappage cost: $3 billion
= net loss on plan: $ 1 billion
Less research is needed
169
$80 billion squandered
170
Worse crises than climate
Global Islamic terrorism
Chinese neo-militarism
Russian neo-imperialism
Mass economic migration
Security of energy & water supply
Environmental degradation
Natural resource depletion
Bad Third-world government
Drugs and people trafficking
HIV, malaria, TB, MRSA, C.Diff.
Bureaucratic centralism vs. democracy
Nationalization of capital
‘Public policy could
itself become the
captive of a scientific-
technological elite ...
The prospect of
domination of the
nation’s scholars by
Federal employment,
project allocations,
and the power of
money is ever present
– and is gravely to be
regarded.’
OMNIS SPIRITVS
LAVDET DOMINVM
173
174

Christopher Monckton Speaking at Bethel University

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Christopher Monckton Speaking at Bethel University

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Apocalypse? NO!

Christopher Monckton of Brenchley

Before the DDT ban: 50,000

All excess deaths: 40,000,000

Little Ice Age

1000 1300 1600 1900 42

Random red noise

Wielicki, Wong et al. (2002)

Wielicki, Wong et al. (2002)

“The more the CO2 in the atmosphere, the

Petit et al., 1999

Dansgaard et al. (1969)

... and just 0.6 C in 1906-2006

The models are tuned to assume a

3 ‘Sinks’ take up half

1750 2009 Change

... but all UN models

Douglass & Knox, 2009

... but all UN models

IPCC (2007) 130

Warming related to change

IPCC admits ...

“Climate has always varied on

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