Introduction to Hydrological Modeling

Introduction Hydrological Modelling
Dr. Lothar Zimmermann

Bavarian Forest Institute
Phone:
08161-71-4914
For questions: Lothar.Zimmermann@lwf.uni-muenchen.de
Zimmermann
Hydrological Modeling 1
Lecture: Hydrological Modeling

Short description:
Overview in application of hydrological models in water ressources management in order to quantify effects of land use and climate change on water budget (ground water recharge) and flood generation
Aim of the course:

General knowledge about hydrological
problems and their solution by models

practical work experience with a model introduction towards sophisticated models
Zimmermann Hydrological Modeling 2
What is Hydrological Modeling Good for?

Climate and land use change and its impacts on the water budget, discharge and water quality Extremes
Flood forecast and protection Drought and low flows
River management
Ground water management
Zimmermann
Structure of the lecture

1. Water budget and its components (Review) 2. Model theory for water budget models 3. Change of land use and effects for water and element budget 4. Climate change scenarios 5. Practical examples with BROOK90
Zimmermann
Water Circle Components of a Landscape

Precipitation (rain, snow) River flow, discharge
Transpiration and Interception from plants
Evaporation from bare soil Soil Percolation Overland flow
Transpiration and Interzeption from plants
Interflow Soil Percolation Soil SoilPercolation Percolation Capillary rise Groundwater flow
(mod. after Bremicker 1999)
Zimmermann
water Budget
Precipitation (P): Rainfall, snowfall, (fog, dew) Evapotranspiration : Transpiration (T) from plants through stomata (ET) Interception (I) from wet plant surfaces Evaporation (E) from bare soil Runoff (R): Overland flow, surface stormflow RO Interflow RI(surface near lateral flow in the soil) Ground water flow RG(exfiltration from ground water aquifers), base flow Storage (S): Change in Soil and Ground Water Storage ET= E + I + T
P = ET + R +/- S
R= RO + RI + RG
Water budget components in the Eastern U.S
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
Precipitation: Measurement of Rainfall

German Hellmann collector 200cm
Unit: 1 l/m2*d = 1 mm/d

Zimmermann
(Maidment 1982)
Precipitation: Correction for systematic undercatch

3 main errors: Wind Evaporation Interception 10% 2-3% 2-3%
Mean rain gauge deficiency for snowfall of US gauges in dependence on wind speed
(Maidment 1982)
Wind shield
(Dyck&Peschke 1995)
Zimmermann
Precipitation: Measurement of snow height and water equivalent
Water equivalent: Depth of water produced by the melted snow
Snowpack depth
Water equivalent=snow density [kg/m**3]*snow depth [m]

Areal Precipitation: IDW Inverse Distance Weighting

Catchment with precipitation gauges point precipitation Catchment with areal precipitation
Zimmermann
Variability of Precipitation
Precipitation DWD-Weihenstephan year/vegetation period in comparison to long-term average (1951-80 resp. since 1995 : 1961-90)
Zimmermann
Evapotranspiration: Measurement
Lysimeter
Evaporation pan
Zimmermann
Evapotranspiration: Energy and Water Budget
R
Energy balance
Energy flux densities
L. E
Water balance
SW
Fluxes
Rn: G: H: L.E:
Zimmermann
radiation balance, net radiation [W/m2] heat flow in the ground [W/m2] sensible heat flux [W/m2] latent heat flux [W/m2]
Energy flux densities
Latent heat and evapotranspiration - units In general:
Flux
energy flux density density of water latent heat of water
For E:
L.E L
E: L.E:
Evaporation, Evapotranspiration Latent heat flux density
:
L:
density of water [1000 kg m-3]

latent heat of water [2.45*106 J kg-1] at 21.5C L= 2501-2.37*T [kJ*kg-1] T in C
Zimmermann
Potential evapotranspiration
Definition:
Maximum possible evapotranspiration under given climatic conditions
2 * If
Short-cut grass is in the midst of a large, unbroken, similarly vegetated stretch of land
Soil moisture is so plentiful that uptake by plants is not inhibited
Advantage: Calculation by meteorological quantities

(air temperature, relative humidity, net or global radiation, sunshine duration, windspeed)
Potential evapotranspiration: Upper limit
Water equivalent of net radiation
Rn L
Rn: net radiation [W m-2]

The water equivalent of net radiation is the upper limit for potential evapotranspiration if sensible (H) and ground heat flux (G) is neglected (see energy balance). It describes that all net incoming radiative energy is completely used for the evaporation of water, so it assumes that no bodies are warmed (heat flow in the ground G) or that air is warmed and bubbles up as eddy (sensible heat flow). For real calculations the terms of H and G cannot be neglected. From energy balance:
Zimmermann
L.ET=Rn-G-H
G, H neglected
Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae I

Haude: [mm/d]
ETP
f (es
e)
[hPa]
e: vapour pressure at 2 pm localtime
es: saturation vapour pressure at 2 pm [hPa] f: monthly proportional factor (empirical)
Vapour deficit driven by air temperature and therefore indirectly by radiation

Empirical monthly factors dependent on vegetation type
Zimmermann
Haude: Empirical monthly factors also dependent on altitude
Upper physical limit of ET
Zimmermann
Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae II

Priestley-Taylor
: s:
ETP
s s
* Rn G
1.26 (arid: 1.74) slope of vapour pressure curve e(T) [hPa*K-1]
:
Rn: G:
psychrometric constant [hPa*K-1]

net radiation [Wm-2] ground heat flow [Wm-2]
Psychrometric constant :
= air pressure p [Pa]* specific heat of air at constant pressure [J*kg-1*K-1] / (m*L) [J*kg-1] m: ratio of individual gas constants for water vapor and dry air =0.622
= 0.016286 * p/L
p=1013.25 hPa, T=15.2C
= 0.67hPa*K-1
Zimmermann
Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae III

Penman
ETP
Wind function Slope of the saturation vapor curve Latent heat of water
Rn s* L s
f ( u) ( e s
e)
f(u)=0.26 (1+0,54u) s=4098T / (237.3+T) L=2501-2.37T
[mm/hPa] [hPa/K] [kJ/kg]
u in m/s T in C
From all three formulae for potential evapotranspiration PENMAN is the most pyhsically based one since it considers radiation vapour deficit ventilation (wind) as the three meteorological driving forces of evapotranspiration.
Zimmermann
Actual Evapotranspiration PENMAN-MONTEITH
Zimmermann
Evapotranspiration: Comparison of ETP

Potential Evapotranspiration Schluchsee/Black Forest
900 800 700 600
mm/a
500 400 300 200 100 0
Rn / L Penman Priestley-Taylor Haude forest Water balance P-R

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 mean
Hydrological Years
Zimmermann
Variability of Evapotranspiration
Evapotranspiration acc. to Haude and climatic water balance DWD Weihenstephan 1991-2001
Zimmermann
Soil water
Zimmermann
Soil Retention: Measurement of Soil Moisture

5 c m T h e rm o f h e l r 1 0 c m T h e rm o f h e l T , r D R -S o n d e 2 0 c m T e n s o i m e e t T , r D R -S o n d e 5 0 c m 9 0 c m D a a t o l g g e r S a e tt i l 1 8 0 c m T e n s o i m e e t T , r D R -S o n d e 1 3 0 c m
2 m
3 m
Zimmermann
Measurement of soil water content by TDR (Time Domain Reflectometry) Quantity: volumetric water content [cm3/cm3 or volume-%) Principle: Retardation of propagation velocity of electromagnetic waves in wet soil High dielectric constant of water ( =82) compared to dry soil ( < 5) and air ( = 1) Strong correlation between dielectric constant in the soil and volumetric water content
Zimmermann
Annual variation of soil water content
Zimmermann
Matric potential
The matric potential describes with how much energy, as a result of the soils capillary and adhesive forces, water is hold by the soil [hPa, cm WC]
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
Change of Matric Potentials within a Field

m . NN 465
A18
460 Gleyic features 455

18
Erosion spillway
Surface Morphology and stratigraphy influence soil moisture and runoff generation
16
-100
14
-200
Woche
12
-300
10
-400
8
-500
6
-600
4
-700
2
-800
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
Rasterpunkte
Transect of tensiometers in 90 cm depth: change of matric potentials in dependent on site and slope position
Annual variation of
Open-field precipitation
Potential evapotranspiration
Matric potential (soil moisture)
Snow cover
Zimmermann
Runoff: Registration of Water Level
Zimmermann
Runoff: Measurement of Flow Velocity I
R Runoff, discharge = flow velocity * river profile area A (width*water depth) R = v*A
Zimmermann
Runoff: Measurement of Flow Velocity II
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
Runoff: Stage-Discharge Curve I
Discharge [m3/s] = f (Water level (Stage))
Zimmermann
Runoff: Stage-Discharge Curve II
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
Example for monitoring water and element fluxes

Lage der Position ofWehre weirs und Drnagen and drains
A7
100 m
Acker 19
BN
A4
Brache
BE6 BW4
Wiese
automatic sampler
60 V-weir pressure gauge
A6
A5 A3
Waldrand
A2 A1
Acker 20
BW1
Fichtenwald
Laptop
Datalogger
Here, discharge and element concentration are continuously monitored and stored in a data logger.
V-notch, sharp crested weir
Defined relation between h and Q Q=1.34*h2.48
Zimmermann
Catchment area
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
Catchment I
impermeable Surface catchment
Ground water
permeable
Underground catchment
Water divide
Zimmermann
Catchment II
Definition: A catchment is the area in horizontal projection in km, limited by water divides through which at a certain point of the river all discharge originates The water divide can be constructed in a topographical map including isohypses. It starts from a point at the river (river profile) by cutting the isohypses vertically.
Zimmermann
Surface and Subsurface Catchment
Zimmermann
Groundwater Definitions I
Zimmermann
Groundwater Definitions II
Ground water recharge for confined aquifer Piezometric surface
Unconfined
confined
The height of the water table of a confined ground water aquifer depends on the highest point of its watertable, even if not present it defines the piezometric surface
Flow regime in dependence on geology

Salt river: impermeable, shallow soils (clayey glacial till) Manistee River: deep, permeabale soils
Zimmermann
Structure of the lecture

1. Water budget and its components (Review) 2. Model theory for water budget models 3. Change of land use and effects for water and element budget 4. Climate change scenarios 5. Practical examples with BROOK90
Zimmermann
Land use
Zimmermann
Natural Land use change

Bavarian Forest National Park No countermeasures against bark beetles
Zimmermann
Water Budget Model as Scenario Tool

Hydrometeorology River bed parameter Basin characterisitics
State of the System
Discharge Input for Water quality and ground water models Change in the state of the system (scenario) controllable Operational forecast
What is a system, a process, a model?

Input p System Output q
P-q=dS/dt
A model describes a system and its processes. A system is an unit of elements which is separated from its environment and relates an input of element, energy or information to an output of element, energy or information in its time pattern to each other. A process is defined as quantitative or qualitative change with time. For hydrological processes, in most cases, the coordinates of a water body or particle are changed, together with a change in temperature, pressure or other properties of water. They are often non-linear.
The operation of the system is modelled.

Model requirements
A model should include:
basic laws (continuity, geometry, boundary conditions) structure of the system parameters of the system
A model is an idealized abstraction of reality. Models should be represetative of real systems.

Hydrological System
A catchment (watershed) or a defined section between two gauges at a river or a lake is a system. It consists out of subsystems like land surface (plant canopy), soil, groundwater, river bed, epi- and hypolimnion etc.
Classification of hydrological models

Aim of the model application?
real-time forecasting, scenarios, planning
Which type of system is modelled?

aquifers, catchment, river section
Which hydrological process or variable?

infiltration, ET, ground water recharge
Which degree of deterministic behaviour (cause-effect relationships)?

Overview of hydrological models

Deterministic Models (Cause-Effect-Relations Fundamental Laws (Hydrodynam.) Conceptual Models Stochastic Models (Statistical relations) Black Box Models
Distributed Models (areal-detailed information)
Lumped Models (no/coarse spatial partitioning)
Raster
Elementary Unit Areas
Larger Subareas
Statistical distribution
No Distribution
Zimmermann
Stochastic models
Probalistic models
probability distribution functions of certain hydrological variables (extremes: floods, low flows, heavy precipitation events etc.) Described by parameters of the probability distribution function: mean, variance, curtosis etc.
Time series models

Used for the extrapolation in time of hydrological variables with their statistical properties maintained (Auto-regression, moving average and combination out of both)
Zimmermann
Description of process in dependence on spatial process resolution (acc.to Becker 1995)

Scale Length Area Process description
Basic physical laws
micro
< 100 m
< 0,01 km2
meso
0,1 30 km
0,01-1000 km2
Physically based conceptual models
macro
>30 km
>1000 km2
Conceptual models
Zimmermann
Discretization in space and time

Discretization in time
According to the aim of the modeling different time steps have to be used (e.g. floods, urban drainage down to minutes, water budget daily to monthly)
Discretization in space
Input data, parameters which describe the basin (topography, land use, soils)and resulting fluxes of energy and mass are spatially heterogeneous
Raster, homogeneous areas, larger subareas or statistical distribution
Zimmermann
Example spatial discretization
Subcatchments as block models
Zones or hydrotopes, for element transport further separated into segments or cascades
Regular raster
Zimmermann
Scale and regionalization problem

Aims, contents and methods of the hydrological models are different according to the scale considered.
The bigger the scale, the simpler the approach.
Loss of information through aggregation (e.g. aggregation of land use). Difficulty to transfer the model results of one catchment to another catchment (regionalization) since the hydrological factors (relief, soils, geology, land use, climate) are very complex and interact in a very complex, non-linear pattern.
Complex hydrological factors: hydrotopes
Zimmermann
Errors in hydrological models Error of model: Decreases with increasing model complexity Error of measurement (input data) Increases with increasing model complexity since data demand increase
error
Total error
Input error model error Model complexity
Zimmermann
Lumped Water Budget Model

Deterministic Models (Cause-Effect-Relations Fundamental Laws (Hydrodynam.) Conceptual Models Stochastic Models (Statistical relations) Black Box Models
Distributed Models (areal-detailed information)
Lumped Models (no/coarse spatial partitioning)
Elementary Unit Areas
Larger Subareas
Statistical distribution
No Distribution
Zimmermann
Water Budget Model Structure

Due to the complexity of the hydrologic system the hydrologic processes are describes in modules (subroutines).
Modules are:
precipitation potential evapotranspiration snow melt overland and river flow unsaturated and saturated soil zone exchange between ground water and river etc. The modular structure has the advantage that according to the aim of the modeling more sophisticated approaches can be chosen.
(Hewlett 1982)
Zimmermann
Input data- in general

Process variables
Precipitation, global radiation or sunshine duration, relative humidity, air temperature, wind
Physical plot or basin characteristics

Catchment area, latitude, slope, exposition, mean elevation height, land use, porosity of the soil, field capacity, permanent wilting point, root depth, land use, LAI etc.
Model parameter
precipitation correction, interception and land surface storage capacity, storage constants, percentage of overland flow, temperature limit for snow/rain, snow melt temperature, day degree factor for snow melt, retention factor for snow cover, starting values for the storages
Test and control data

Discharge, percentage of ground water flow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration measurements at certain points
Zimmermann
Lumped Water Budget Model BROOK90

Short description
Zimmermann
Modeling of subsystem: Precipitation
Precipitation PREC has to be corrected for systematic undercatch outside the model while pre-processing the meteorological input data, then division into snowfall fraction (SFAL) and rainfall (RFAL), these are further divided into the fractions which are intercepted (SINT, RINT) and which fall through the canopy (RTHR, RTHR). Throughfall is further reduced by the amount of rain which is stored within the snow cover (SNOW). The snow cover is reduced by evaporation (SNVP) and snow melt (SMLT) while the last is added with the remaining throughfall to the net rainfall (RNET).
Zimmermann
Concept of variably saturated source areas
From Maidment
Modeling of subsystem: Runoff formation
Net rainfall RNET is divided into surface runoff (SRFL) and into infiltration into the soil (SLFL). The soil water storage (SWATI (1->n)) consists of several layers. The infiltration SLFL which can be regarded as fast deep infiltration by macropores is divided into two components within the soil: first infiltration by macropores in each layer (INFL(1->n)) of the soil matrix, second a fast downslope bypass flow through pipes (BYFL(1->n)) which does not enter the soil matrix. Within the soil we have a vertical matrix flow (VRFL(I)), when layers are saturated another downslope, slow flow (DSFL) is generated.
Zimmermann
Lumped Water Budget Model BROOK90

Flow components
SRFL: Overland flow BYFL: Bypass flow

SLFL: surface infiltration INFL: macropore infiltration VRFL: vertical matric flow DSFL: slope parallel interflow GWFL: ground water flow
FLOW=SRFL+BYFL+DSFL+GWFL
Modeling of subsystem: Evapotranspiration

From each soil layer according to root density water is withdrawn through transpiration (TRAN(I->n)), from the first soil layer in addition also soil evaporation (SLVP) takes place, if snow cover is present snow evaporation (SNVP) as well, the interception storages (INTR, INTS) are emptied as well by interception evaporation (IRVP, ISVP)
Zimmermann
Input data- Brook90

Process variables [unit] in dfile.dat
[MJ cm-2d-1] [C] [kPa] [m/s] [mm/d] [mm/d]
global radiation maximum and minimum of air temperature vapour pressure wind speed precipitation Discharge
Zimmermann
Input data- in general

Process variables
Precipitation, global radiation or sunshine duration, relative humidity, air temperature, wind
Physical plot or basin characteristics

Catchment area, latitude, slope, exposition, mean elevation height, land use, porosity of the soil, field capacity, permanent wilting point, root depth, land use, LAI etc.
Model parameter
precipitation correction, interception and land surface storage capacity, storage constants, percentage of overland flow, temperature limit for snow/rain, snow melt temperature, day degree factor for snow melt, retention factor for snow cover, starting values for the storages
Test and control data

Discharge, percentage of ground water flow, soil moisture and evapotranspiration measurements at certain points
Zimmermann

Introduction to Hydrological Modeling

Загружено:

Сведения о документе

Оригинальное название

Авторское право

Доступные форматы

Поделиться этим документом

Поделиться или встроить документ

Параметры публикации

Этот документ был вам полезен?

Это неприемлемый материал?

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Introduction to Hydrological Modeling

Загружено:

Авторское право:

Доступные форматы

Introduction Hydrological Modelling

Dr. Lothar Zimmermann

Lecture: Hydrological Modeling

Aim of the course:

problems and their solution by models

What is Hydrological Modeling Good for?

Structure of the lecture

Water Circle Components of a Landscape

Transpiration and Interception from plants

Evaporation from bare soil Soil Percolation Overland flow

Transpiration and Interzeption from plants

Water budget components in the Eastern U.S

Precipitation: Measurement of Rainfall

Unit: 1 l/m2*d = 1 mm/d

Precipitation: Correction for systematic undercatch

Precipitation: Measurement of snow height and water equivalent

Water equivalent: Depth of water produced by the melted snow

Water equivalent=snow density [kg/m**3]*snow depth [m]

Areal Precipitation: IDW Inverse Distance Weighting

Evapotranspiration: Energy and Water Budget

Energy flux densities

Latent heat and evapotranspiration - units In general:

energy flux density density of water latent heat of water

Evaporation, Evapotranspiration Latent heat flux density

density of water [1000 kg m-3]

Soil moisture is so plentiful that uptake by plants is not inhibited

Advantage: Calculation by meteorological quantities

Potential evapotranspiration: Upper limit

Water equivalent of net radiation

Rn: net radiation [W m-2]

Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae I

e: vapour pressure at 2 pm localtime

es: saturation vapour pressure at 2 pm [hPa] f: monthly proportional factor (empirical)

Vapour deficit driven by air temperature and therefore indirectly by radiation

Empirical monthly factors dependent on vegetation type

Haude: Empirical monthly factors also dependent on altitude

Upper physical limit of ET

Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae II

1.26 (arid: 1.74) slope of vapour pressure curve e(T) [hPa*K-1]

psychrometric constant [hPa*K-1]

p=1013.25 hPa, T=15.2C

Potential evapotranspiration: Formulae III

f(u)=0.26 (1+0,54u) s=4098T / (237.3+T) L=2501-2.37T

[mm/hPa] [hPa/K] [kJ/kg]

Actual Evapotranspiration PENMAN-MONTEITH

Evapotranspiration: Comparison of ETP

500 400 300 200 100 0

Rn / L Penman Priestley-Taylor Haude forest Water balance P-R

Soil Retention: Measurement of Soil Moisture

Annual variation of soil water content

Change of Matric Potentials within a Field

460 Gleyic features 455

Matric potential (soil moisture)

Runoff: Registration of Water Level

Runoff: Measurement of Flow Velocity I

Runoff: Measurement of Flow Velocity II

Runoff: Stage-Discharge Curve I

Discharge [m3/s] = f (Water level (Stage))

Runoff: Stage-Discharge Curve II

Example for monitoring water and element fluxes

V-notch, sharp crested weir

Defined relation between h and Q Q=1.34*h2.48

Surface and Subsurface Catchment