MENA Perspective March 2014

GCC diplomatic Strife: What is Next?

The withdrawal of the diplomatic envoys of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain to Qatar signalizes a much wider political rift inside the GCC states
In a nutshell All eyes remain on the diplomatic strife within the cooperation council of Gulf countries and how it could evolve. The withdrawal of three Gulf ambassadors from Qatar is an unprecedented event in the history of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). While on the surface, this diplomatic rupture points to divergent views on a variety of geopolitical developments in the wider Middle East, in reality this diplomatic rupture reflects a struggle by small GCC countries to limit Saudi Arabias growing regional hegemony. The GCC is facing the gravest diplomatic crisis since this regional club was established in the 1980s. The diplomatic spat that broke out last week following the decision of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain to withdraw their ambassadors from Qatar has surprised GCC citizens and international observers alike. Diplomatic ruptures between Qatar and Saudi Arabia are not uncommon. Both countries have a history of diplomatic tensions stemming not only from an outstanding territorial dispute, but also from views held in some circles in Riyadh regarding the sovereignty of Qatar. But on this occasion, it is the involvement of two additional countries and the nature of accusations within their official statement that has caused alarm. It is clear that together these three countries want to send an unmistakably tough message to Doha about their dissatisfaction with some of its foreign policy stances. The official statement from Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain was vague and without detail. It was meant to influence GCC public opinion, casting the Qatari political leadership as a threat to the stability of the region. Qatars government has responded immediately, explaining that their discord concerns issues outside GCC domestic affairs, but without further information on what subject(s)GCC leaders had disagreed on during the last GCC ministerial meeting. Not only has this diplomatic rupture brought year-long tensions and disagreements among GCC countries on a variety of issues-from foreign policy stances to monetary integration-to the surface but it also raises many questions about the future of the regional union project. Furthermore, it is happening at a critical geopolitical juncture for most countries in the region, and particularly for Saudi Arabia and if these disagreements are not contained, they could further complicate the regions stability. Will Saudi Arabia take further steps to pressure Qatars leadership to alter their foreign policy choices? Will the incident mark a turning point on the path of GCC integration? Is this a new opportunity to revise the modus operandi of Saudi Arabia towards its GCC partners? This diplomatic rupture shows no sign of coming to an end anytime soon, despite mediation attempts by Kuwait and other Arab countries. Qatars leadership appears to be insisting on continuing with their financial support to opposition groups in Syria after having supported

Egypts military along with the previous Muslim Brotherhood-led government without coordinating with the other GCC countries, whereas Saudi Arabias geopolitical interests are arguably opposite to Qatars foreign policy interests. Qatars continued reluctance to interfere with the editorial line of its pan-Arab news channel, Aljazeera, which has in the past taken a political stance both in Egypt and Libya, and has consistently criticized fellow Arab Gulf monarchies over a variety of issues, has, over the past months, added to the increasing perception of some Gulf states that different measures apply to Qatar than to other GCC states. The arguments used by the three GCC countries about the security of the Gulf seem, in this context, to be unconvincing to Qatari ruling elites, for Qatar, like all other GCC states, is of course similarly concerned with threats to the regions political stability in the wake of several political revolutions that have swept across North Africa and have reached as far as Bahrain and Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula. Indeed, it seems that it is unclear for Qatar how its position on Egypt and the politics of several other Arab countries has had any impact on the security and stability of the Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited leverage on Qatar. Economic sanctions, measures often used in managing international affairs, will have limited impact as trade flows between Qatar and its neighboring countries are insignificant. Qatars economy is dependent to a large extent on natural gas exports to non-GCC markets. Suspension from the GCC club is a risky precedent and could endanger the entire integration endeavor, particularly in light of the disagreements of some of its members on the union agenda proposed by Saudi Arabia. This crisis demonstrates that there is a problem of a divergence of views regarding the assessment of threats and foreign policy choices. Saudi Arabia and UAE see a Muslimbrotherhood government in Egypt as a direct threat to their own domestic stability, by way of the loss of a like-minded strategic partner on a variety of geopolitical issues, which they had found in the previous Mubarak regime had been. Both countries have supported the ousting of the elected Islamist president, Mohammed Morsi, and are backing the Egyptian military both financially and diplomatically. Qatar, in contrast, has not adopted the same stance and continues to support several political groups, seemingly unselectively, including the Muslim Brotherhood. Qatars uncompromising position can only be explained by its desire to seek recognition of its own importance and independence and to emerge from the shadow of the otherwise regionally dominant political positioning of Saudi Arabia which continues to define key elements of GCC foreign policy. The issue at stake is that Qatar, as it is the case with most other GCC countries, refuses to acknowledge or endorse the regional hegemonic role of Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia believes that has an inherent right to lead the region and impose its views, because of its relatively large geography, population and military.

Quest for Coherent Foreign Policy

This diplomatic shock functions as a warning call to GCC political leaders that the coordination mechanisms currently in place are apparently not enough to allow the Gulf region to face the changing geopolitical landscape of the current times as a group. The Gulf countries are under pressure form the revival of sectarian tensions and increased instability in several countries in the Middle East, and waning US military commitment to secure the region. For instance, the six GCC countries have continually failed to articulate a comprehensive common foreign policy on Iran. Although there is general agreement that Irans nuclear programme is a threat to the Gulf regions stability, the GCC states have not agreed on how to engage with the issue. Countries like Oman and UAE prefer diplomatic discussions with Iran, with Oman even having been in continuous talks with Iran to construct a gas pipeline between the two states; whilst Saudi Arabia would likely prefer to see Iran politically and economically isolated both internationally and within the region itself. As a

Disclaimer:This note has been prepared by MENA Insights for general information purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be considered as a legal or other advice.

Shiite-led quasi-religious state, Iran further threatens the position of Saudi Arabia as the defender of Sunni Islam amongst the Sunni-ruled Gulf monarchies. Perhaps it takes a crisis of this nature to kickstart serious efforts to achieve the much hopedfor union dream. This is an opportunity for GCC countries to debate best approaches to deepen their regional cooperation and work as equal partners. New institutions of governance for their common foreign and security policy are urgently needed. Judging from other examples of regional groupings such as the European Union, any greater regional integration within the GCC will require autonomous regional institutions that will oversee and enhance regional long-term objectives and interests of all countries. As is true in many areas of politics, it is much easier to set a goal than actually implement one. Establishing a functioning union is the path for achieving the security that the Gulf monarchies are anxious to have, but implementation will be undoubtedly difficult as governments are not eager to relinquish their sovereign powers. To accelerate the achievement of this goal, Saudi Arabia has to change its modus operandi and show consideration for the views and interests of other GCC countries, in order to achieve support for its Gulf union project.

For further questions, please contact us: Mohammed El-Katiri Senior Analyst Tel: 44 (0) 2033 22 6671 Mobile: 44 (0) 7759200663 Email: Mohammed.elkatiri@menainights.com

Disclaimer:This note has been prepared by MENA Insights for general information purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be considered as a legal or other advice.