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Leadership pentru Managementul Resurselor Umane in secolul XXI Teme de Curs: Context Economic si Tehnologic pentru Leadership Contemporan

n Leadership si Managementul Resurselor Umane Dezvoltare Personala si Institutionala Evaluarea si Managementul Talentului in Organizatii

Bibliografie curs si culegere de texte:

One !orld" The Ethics o# $lo%alization&' Peter (inger' )ale Development as -reedom&' .mart*a (en The -uture o# -reedom&' -areed /a0aria The Post .merican !orld&' -areed /a0aria In De#ense o# $lo%al Capitalism&' 1ohan 2or%erg O# $lo%alization and Its Discontents&' 1oseph (tiglitz' 2e3 )or0"

Universit* Press +,,+

!4!4 2orton 5 Compan*' +,,+ Plan 6 74,8 Mo%ilizing to (ave Civilisation& Lester 6ro3n The Commanding 9eights" The 6attle 6et3een $overnment and

the Mar0etplace That Is Rema0ing the Modern !orld&' Daniel )ergin and 1oseph (tanisla3' :;;< Economia Crizelor" Curs8#ulger despre viitorul -inantelor&' 2ouriel

Rou%ini' (tephen Mihm Editura Pu%lica I(62" ;=<8;=78:;7:8>78+ ?The -uture4 (ix Drivers o# $lo%al Change?' .l $ore' +,:7'

Random 9ouse' I(62" ;=<8,8<:+;8;+;>8@' e6oo0 I(62" ;=<8,8@=;8 @>>7,8; ?Intelligent Leadership?' 1ohn Mattone' .macom' +,:7' I(62 :7A ?Leadership on the Line4 (ta*ing .live through the Dangers o# ;=<8,8<:>>87+7=8+

Leading?' Ronald .4 9ei#etz' Mart* Lins0*' +,,+' 9arvard 6usiness (chool Press' I(62 :8B=<B:8>7=8: ?The Ideas That ConCuered the !orld4 Peace' Democrac*' and -ree

Mar0ets in the T3ent*8#irst Centur*?' Michael Mandel%aum' Pu%lic .##airs +,,+' I(62 :8B<@><8:7>8= ?!h* 2ations -ail4 The Origins o# Po3er' Prosperit*' and Povert*?'

Daron .cemoglu' 1ames .4 Ro%inson' Cro3n 6usiness' +,:+4 I(62 ;=<8 ,87,=8=:;+:8<' eI(62 ;=<8,87,=8=:;+78+ Disposa%le People" 2e3 (laver* in the $lo%al Econom*&' Revised

Edition' Devin 6ales Universit* o# Cali#ornia Press I(62" ;=<,B+,+>7<>+ din +,,>

The End o# Povert*" Economic Possi%ilities #or Our Time&' 1e##re* The Locust and the 6ee" Predators and Creators in CapitalismEs

(achs I(62 :8B;>+,8,>B8; din +,,B

-uture&' $eo## Muligan' Princeton Universit* Pres' I(62 ;=<8,8@;:8 :>@;@8@ !hat Mone* CanEt 6u* F The Moral Limits o# Mar0ets&' Michael

(andel' -arrar'(trauss and $iroux'2)' +,:+ I(62;=<8,87=>8+,7,7 Ill -ares the Land& Ton* 1udt' .llen Lane' The Penguin Press +,:, I(62 ;=<8:8<>@8:>7B;8B Articole surse si multimedia rele!ante ptr curs:

"# The $reat Le!eling Revie3ed %* !arren 6ass(unda*' .pril 7' +,,BA On a modern8da* passage to India' Thomas L4 -riedman' the #oreign a##airs columnist #or the 2e3 )or0 Times' #ound himsel# chatting in 6angalore 3ith a *oung' slight' mustachioed videogame8compan* CEO named RaGesh Rao4 ?India is going to %e a superpo3er'? Rao said' gushing a%out a ne3 economic era that ma0es the glo%e into one massive mar0etplace' ?and 3e are going to rule4? 6ut rule 3homH -riedman as0ed4 Rao laughed4 ?ItIs not a%out ruling an*%od*'? he admitted4 ?ThatIs the point4 There is no%od* to rule an*more4? RaoIs enthusiasm a%out the changing rules o# international commerce and politics toda* 88 a%out 3hether thereIs an*thing le#t to rule in a %rave ne3 3orld o# glo%alization 88 underscores the virtues and vices o# -riedmanIs captivating and sometimes #rustrating ne3 %oo04 The !orld Is -lat continues the #ranchise -riedman has made #or himsel# as a great explicator o# and cheerleader #or glo%alization' %uilding upon his :;;; The Lexus and the Olive Tree4 Li0e its predecessor' this %oo0 sho3cases -riedmanIs gi#t #or lucid dissections o# a%struse economic phenomena' his teacherIs head' his preacherIs heart' his genius #or trend8spotting and his sometimes maddening ina%ilit* to ta0e himsel# out o# the #rame4 It also shares some o# the earlier volumeIs excitement Jmirroring RaGesh RaoIsK and hesitations a%out 3hether 3eIre still living in an era dominated %* old8 #ashioned states or in a postmodern' glo%alized era 3here states matter #ar less and the principal engine o# change is a leveled pla*ing #ield #or international trade4 !hat complicates this #urther is' o# course' ;L::4 I# the idea o# glo%alization #illed a conceptual void in the #ormless :;;,s 88 the editors o# -oreign .##airs magazine 3rote in :;;= that ?the overall theme o# the :;;,s is that there is no overall theme to the :;;,s? 88 the shoc0 o# al MaedaIs assault *an0ed earl*8+:st8 centur* geopolitics %ac0 to 3orries a%out securit*4 In The !orld Is -lat' -riedman reGoins the de%ate over 3hatIs reall* driving 3orld politics' %ut he does not come out 3here readers o# his eloCuent columns on the challenges o# de#eating %in Ladenism might expectA instead' he argues that ?the most important #orce shaping glo%al economics and politics in the earl* t3ent*8#irst centur*? is not the admittedl* important 3ar on terrorism %ut a ?triple convergence 88 o# ne3 pla*ers' on a ne3 pla*ing #ield' developing ne3 processes and ha%its #or horizontal colla%oration4?

-riedman 3rites that the 3orld is no3 entering the era o# ?$lo%alization 74,'? #ollo3ing $lo%alization :4,' 3hich ran #rom :>;+ until :<,, and 3as driven %* countriesI sheer %ra3n' and $lo%alization +4,' in 3hich ?the 0e* agent o# change' the d*namic #orce driving glo%al integration' 3as multinational companies? driven to loo0 a%road #or mar0ets and la%or' spurred %* industrial8age ?%rea0throughs in hard3are? such as steamships' trains' phones and computers4 That epoch ended around +,,,' replaced %* one in 3hich individuals are the main agents doing the glo%alizing' pushed %* ?not horsepo3er' and not hard3are' %ut so#t3are? and a ?glo%al #i%er8optic net3or0 that has made us all next8door neigh%ors4? I# the #irst t3o eras 3ere driven mostl* %* Europeans and .mericans' the third is open to ?ever* color o# the human rain%o34? In particular' -riedman is o%sessed 3ith one o# the great economic phenomena o# our da*" the outsourcing o# the U4(4 econom*Is service and in#ormation8 technolog* 3or0 to India' China and else3here4 The reason that Indian accounting #irms are expected to do a%out >,,',,, .merican tax returns this *ear' that small U4(4 hospitals have their C.T scans read in the 3ee hours %* Indian or .ustralian radiologists 0no3n as the ?2ightha30s'? or that the Chinese port cit* o# Dalian is ta0ing outsourced 3or0 #rom its #ormer imperial masters in 1apan' -riedman argues' is that the 3orld is undergoing ?one o# those #undamental changes 88 li0e the rise o# the nation8state or the Industrial Revolution? 88 that trans#orm the roles o# individuals' governments and societies4 The 3orld 3as #lattened' he 3rites' %* :, #orces' including the #all o# the 6erlin !all and the discrediting o# (oviet8st*le command economiesA the :;;B 2etscape IPO' 3hich opened up the Internet #or eas* %ro3singA the dot8com era overinvestment in the #i%er8optic ca%les that such glo%alizing hu%s as 6angalore and (henzhen' China' rel* upon to cheapl* transmit data around the planetA search engines li0e $oogle' most o# 3hose Cueries are no3 no longer in EnglishA and such #lat83orld ?steroids? as PalmPilots' tin* laptops and the 3ireless technolog* that lets one o# -riedmanIs colleagues merril* e8mail #rom a%oard a 1apanese %ullet train4 ?The Ihot line'I 3hich used to connect the Dremlin 3ith the !hite 9ouse'? -riedman 3rites' ?has %een replaced %* the Ihelp line'I 3hich connects ever*one in .merica to call centers in 6angalore4? Even as these #orces leveled the pla*ing #ield' -riedman notes' some 7 %illion people 3ere rushing onto it 88 #rom China' India' the #ormer (oviet Union and other countries 3hose economies had thro3n o## socialism or sel#8de#eating insularism4 .s .merican politicians 3ere letting the countr*Is scienti#ic and engineering %ase erode and peddling protectionist m*ths' the glo%al econom* 3as %eing ?shaped less %* the ponderous deli%erations o# #inance ministers and

more %* the spontaneous explosion o# energ*? #rom eager Indian and Chinese entrepreneurs4 -riedman o##ers an engrossing tour o# -lat !orld' %ut he sometimes overestimates its novelt*4 -or starters' the glee o# $lo%alization 74,Is pla*ers at the prospect o# a seemingl* %orderless 3orld is hardl* ne34 ?Merchants have no countr*'? 1e##erson 3rote in :<:>4 ?The mere spot the* stand on does not constitute so strong an attachment as that #rom 3hich the* dra3 their gains4? (imilarl*' -riedman is right that China might no3 %e more leer* a%out attac0ing high8tech Tai3an #or #ear o# snarling international trade and manu#acturing lines' giving the island its so8called silicon shield4 6ut his puc0ishl* named Dell Theor* o# Con#lict Prevention 88 ?2o t3o countries that are %oth part o# a maGor glo%al suppl* chain' li0e DellIs' 3ill ever #ight a 3ar against each other as long as the* are %oth part o# the same glo%al suppl* chain? 88 s0ates past the #act that potential %elligerents have al3a*s 3eighed the economic costs o# 3ar' o#ten 3ith %reathta0ing inaccurac*4 J(addam 9ussein thought go%%ling up Du3ait in .ugust :;;, 3ould let him dominate the 3orld oil mar0et' not shatter his arm* and usher in a decade o# crippling sanctions4K .nd the argument that trade inhi%its %elligerence dates %ac0 at least to Dant4 -riedman also does not have a compelling re%uttal #or 9arvardIs Michael (andel' 3ho calls -lat !orldIs ne3 horizontal colla%oration ?Gust a nice name #or the a%ilit* to hire cheap la%or in India4? -or instance' Indian techies had the manpo3er and am%ition to do the ?huge' tedious Go%? o# #ixing the !estIs )+D computer %ug' giving India a surge o# IT %usiness that -riedman calls ?a second Indian Independence Da*4? 6ut IndiaIs )+D 3ind#all could %e read Gust as easil* as a sign o# dependence' o# reliance on tas0s that .merican 3or0ers no longer 3ant4 -riedman rightl* notes that ?lo383age' lo38prestige Go%s in .merica 4 4 4 %ecome high83age' high8prestige Go%s? 3hen outsourced to India4 6ut in an era 3here' as -riedman puts it' %oth pride and humiliation get served up to *ou via #i%er8optic ca%le' itIs not at all clear 3eIll li0e the long8term geopolitical conseCuences o# having emerging po3ers reliant on scraps #rom the .merican economic ta%le4 -riedmanIs evangelism never entirel* alla*s the suspicion that ?the single most important trend in the 3orld toda*? is actuall* the empt* hal# o# the glass4 In a sense' The !orld Is -lat serves as a sort o# %oo0end to this springIs other %loc0%uster economics %oo0' 1e##re* D4 (achsIs The End o# Povert*' 3hich angril* notes that some +,',,, people die unnecessaril* ever* da* #rom starvation and diseases li0e malaria 3hile the developed 3orld #iddles4 Much o#

the 3orld is indeed #lat 88 #lat %ro0e4 ?)ou cannot drive economic gro3th'? -riedman ac0no3ledges' ?in a place 3here B, percent o# the people are in#ected 3ith malaria or hal# o# the 0ids are malnourished or a third o# the mothers are d*ing o# .ID(4? .nd then thereIs ;L::4 ?The #lat 3orld 88 un#ortunatel* 88 is a #riend o# %oth In#os*s and al8Maeda'? -riedman 3rites' since %oth rel* on the imaginative use o# the Internet and glo%al suppl* chains and since %oth are super8empo3ered %* a #latter pla*ing #ield magni#*ing the importance o# individuals and groups4 -air enough' %ut 3h* does RaGesh Rao matter more than Osama %in Laden' the Lexus more than the olive tree' #lat83orld glo%alization more than the #ar8#lung struggle 3ith Gihadism that -riedman himsel# has li0ened to !orld !ar IIIH 9e doesnIt Cuite sa*4 .s one 3ould expect #rom the author o# the %rilliant -rom 6eirut to 1erusalem' his treatment o# ;L:: and Middle Eastern issues is insight#ul and deepl* in#ormed' %ut it doesnIt convincingl* settle the Cuestion o# 3hether glo%al trade or glo%al terror is our ageIs central organizing principle4 I# al Maeda ever %u*s' %uilds or steals even a small nuclear %om% 88 ta0ing advantage o# the 6ush administrationIs leisurel* %elie# that .merica can a##ord to 3ait until sometime a#ter +,,< to secure poorl* guarded Russian nuclear 3eapons and material 88 the surging gro3th o# the Indian and Chinese entrepreneurial classes ma* seem largel* o# academic interest4 !hile The !orld Is -lat is not a classic li0e -rom 6eirut to 1erusalem' it is still an enthralling read4 To his great credit' -riedman em%races much o# his #lat 3orldIs complexit*' and his reporting %rings to vi%rant li#e some %eguiling characters and trends4 I# his %oo0 is marred %* an exasperating reliance on the #irst person and a surplus o# catch phrases J? I-riedman'I I said to m*sel#' loo0ing at this scene' I*ou are so t3entieth8centur*4 4 4 4 )ou are so $lo%alization +4,I ?K' it is also more livel*' provocative and sophisticated than the over3helming %ul0 o# #oreign polic* commentar* these da*s4 !eIve no real idea ho3 the +:st centur*Is histor* 3ill un#old' %ut this terri#icall* stimulating %oo0 3ill certainl* inspire readers to start thin0ing it all through4 N !arren 6ass is a senior editor at 6oo0 !orld and a #ormer mem%er o# the ;L:: Commission sta##4 9e is the author o# ?(upport .n* -riend" Denned*Is Middle East and the Ma0ing o# the U4(48Israel .lliance'? 3hich 3as recentl* released in paper%ac04 O +,,B The !ashington Post Compan*

%# The &ealth of 'et More (ations 6* -areed /a0aria T9E !ORLD I( -L.T& 8 . 6rie# 9istor* o# the T3ent*8-irst Centur*4 6* Thomas L4 -riedman4 ><< pp4 -arrar' (traus 5 $iroux4 OPER the past #e3 *ears' the United (tates has %een o%sessed 3ith the Middle East4 The administration' the ne3s media and the .merican people have all %een #ocused almost exclusivel* on the region' and it has seemed that dealing 3ith its pro%lems 3ould de#ine the earl* decades o# the +:st centur*4 IIThe 3ar on terror is a struggle that 3ill last #or generations'II Donald Rums#eld is reported to have said to his associates a#ter ;L::4 6ut could it %e that 3eIre #ocused on the 3rong pro%lemH The challenge o# Islamic terrorism is real enough' %ut could it prove to %e less dura%le than it once appearedH There are some signs to suggest this4 The com%ined po3er o# most governments o# the 3orld is proving to %e a match #or an* terror group4 In addition' several o# the governments in the Middle East are inching to3ard modernizing and opening up their societies4 This 3ill %e a long process %ut it is alread* draining some o# the rage that undergirded Islamic extremism4 This doesnIt mean that the Middle East 3ill disappear o## the map4 -ar #rom it4 Terrorism remains a threat' and 3e 3ill all continue to %e #ascinated %* upheavals in Le%anon' events in Iran and re#orms in Eg*pt4 6ut ultimatel* these trends are unli0el* to shape the 3orldIs #uture4 The countries o# the Middle East have %een losers in the age o# glo%alization' out o# step in an age o# #ree mar0ets' #ree trade and democratic politics4 The 3orldIs #uture 88 the %ig picture 88 is more li0el* to %e shaped %* the 3inners o# this era4 .nd i# the United (tates thought it 3as di##icult to deal 3ith the losers' the 3inners present an even thornier set o# challenges4 This is the implication o# the 2e3 )or0 Times columnist Thomas L4 -riedmanIs excellent ne3 %oo0' IIThe !orld Is -lat" . 6rie# 9istor* o# the T3ent*8-irst Centur*4II The metaphor o# a #lat 3orld' used %* -riedman to descri%e the next phase o# glo%alization' is ingenious4 It came to him a#ter hearing an Indian so#t3are executive explain ho3 the 3orldIs economic pla*ing #ield 3as %eing leveled4 -or a variet* o# reasons' 3hat economists call II%arriers to entr*II are %eing destro*edA toda* an individual or compan* an*3here can colla%orate or compete glo%all*4 6ill $ates explains the meaning o# this trans#ormation %est4 Thirt* *ears ago' he

tells -riedman' i# *ou had to choose %et3een %eing %orn a genius in Mum%ai or (hanghai and an average person in Pough0eepsie' *ou 3ould have chosen Pough0eepsie %ecause *our chances o# living a prosperous and #ul#illed li#e 3ere much greater there4 II2o3'II $ates sa*s' III 3ould rather %e a genius %orn in China than an average gu* %orn in Pough0eepsie4II The %oo0 is done in -riedmanIs trademar0 st*le4 )ou travel 3ith him' meet his 3i#e and 0ids' learn a%out his #riends and sit in on his intervie3s4 (ome #ind this irritating4 I thin0 it 3or0s in ma0ing complicated ideas accessi%le4 .nother Indian entrepreneur' 1err* Rao' explained to -riedman 3h* his accounting #irm in 6angalore 3as a%le to prepare tax returns #or .mericans4 JIn +,,B' an estimated >,,',,, .merican I4R4(4 returns 3ere prepared in India4K II.n* activit* 3here 3e can digitize and decompose the value chain' and move the 3or0 around' 3ill get moved around4 (ome people 3ill sa*' I)es' %ut *ou canIt serve me a stea04I True' %ut I can ta0e the reservation #or *our ta%le sitting an*3here in the 3orld'II Rao sa*s4 9e ended the intervie3 %* descri%ing his next plan' 3hich is to lin0 up 3ith an Israeli compan* that can transmit C.T scans via the Internet so that .mericans can get a second opinion #rom an Indian or Israeli doctor' Cuic0l* and cheapl*4 !hat created the #lat 3orldH -riedman stresses technological #orces4 Paradoxicall*' the dot8com %u%%le pla*ed a crucial role4 Telecommunications companies li0e $lo%al Crossing had hundreds o# millions o# dollars o# cash 88 given to them %* gulli%le investors 88 and the* used it to pursue incredi%l* am%itious plans to II3ire the 3orld'II la*ing #i%er8optic ca%le across the ocean #loors' connecting 6angalore' 6ang0o0 and 6eiGing to the advanced industrial countries4 This excess suppl* o# connectivit* meant that the costs o# phone calls' Internet connections and data transmission declined dramaticall* 88 so dramaticall* that man* o# the companies that laid these ca%les 3ent %an0rupt4 6ut the deed 3as done' the 3orld 3as 3ired4 Toda* it costs a%out as much to connect to $uangdong as it does 2e3 1erse*4 The next %lo3 in this one8t3o punch 3as the dot8com %ust4 The stoc0 mar0et crash made companies ever*3here cut spending4 That meant the* needed to loo0 #or 3a*s to do 3hat the* 3ere doing #or less mone*4 The solution" outsourcing4 $eneral Electric had led the 3a* a decade earlier and %* the late :;;,Is man* large .merican companies 3ere recognizing that Indian engineers could handle most technical Go%s the* needed done' at a tenth the cost4 The preparations #or )+D' the millennium %ug' gave a huge impetus to this shi#t since most !estern companies needed armies o# cheap so#t3are 3or0ers to recode their computers4

!elcome to 6angalore4 . good %it o# the %oo0 is ta0en up 3ith a discussion o# these technological #orces and the 3a* in 3hich %usiness has reacted and adapted to them4 -riedman explains the importance o# the development o# II3or0 #lo3 plat#orms'II so#t3are that made it possi%le #or all 0inds o# computer applications to connect and 3or0 together' 3hich is 3hat allo3ed seamless cooperation %* people 3or0ing an*3here4 IIIt is the creation o# this plat#orm' 3ith these uniCue attri%utes' that is the trul* important sustaina%le %rea0through that has made 3hat *ou call the #lattening o# the 3orld possi%le'II Microso#tIs chie# technolog* o##icer' Craig 14 Mundie' told -riedman4 -riedman has a #lair #or %usiness reporting and #inds amusing stories a%out !al8 Mart' UP(' Dell and 1et6lue' among others' that relate to his %asic theme4 Did *ou 0no3 that 3hen *ou order a %urger at the drive8through McDonaldIs on Interstate BB near Cape $irardeau' Mo4' the person ta0ing *our order is at a call center ;,, miles a3a* in Colorado (pringsH J9e or she then zaps it %ac0 to that McDonaldIs and the order is read* a #e3 minutes later as *ou drive around to the pic0up 3indo34K Or that 3hen *ou call 1et6lue #or a reservation' *ouIre tal0ing to a house3i#e in Utah' 3ho does the Go% part timeH Or that 3hen *ou ship *our Toshi%a laptop #or repairs via UP(' itIs actuall* UP(Is gu*s in the II#unn* %ro3n shortsII 3ho do the #ixingH China and India loom large in -riedmanIs stor* %ecause the* are the t3o %ig countries %ene#iting most #rom the #lat 3orld4 To ta0e Gust one example' !al8 Mart alone last *ear imported Q:< %illion 3orth o# goods #rom its B',,, Chinese suppliers4 J-riedman doesnIt do the math' %ut this 3ould mean that o# !al8MartIs @',,, suppliers' <, percent are in one countr* 88 China4K The Indian case is less staggering and still mostl* in services' though the trend is dramaticall* up3ard4 6ut -riedman understands that China and India represent not Gust threats to the developed 3orld' %ut also great opportunities4 .#ter all' the changes he is descri%ing have the net e##ect o# adding hundreds o# millions o# people 88 consumers 88 to the 3orld econom*4 That is an unparalleled opportunit* #or ever* compan* and individual in the 3orld4 -riedman Cuotes a Morgan (tanle* stud* estimating that since the mid8:;;,Is cheap imports #rom China have saved .merican consumers over Q@,, %illion and pro%a%l* saved .merican companies even more than that since the* use Chinese8 sourced parts in their production4 .nd this is not all a%out cheap la%or4 6et3een :;;B and +,,+' ChinaIs private sector has increased productivit* at := percent

annuall* 88 a trul* %reathta0ing pace4 -riedman descri%es his honest reaction to this ne3 3orld 3hile heIs at one o# IndiaIs great outsourcing companies' In#os*s4 9e 3as standing' he sa*s' IIat the gate o%serving this river o# educated *oung people #lo3ing in and out4 4 4 4 The* all loo0ed as i# the* had scored :@,, on their (.TIs4 4 4 4 M* mind Gust 0ept telling me' IRicardo is right' Ricardo is right4I 4 4 4 These Indian techies 3ere doing 3hat 3as their comparative advantage and then turning around and using their income to %u* all the products #rom .merica that are our comparative advantage4 4 4 4 6oth our countries 3ould %ene#it4 4 4 4 6ut m* e*e 0ept 4 4 4 telling me something else" IOh' m* $od' there are Gust so man* o# them' and the* all loo0 so serious' so eager #or 3or04 .nd the* Gust 0eep coming' 3ave a#ter 3ave4 9o3 in the 3orld can it possi%l* %e good #or m* daughters and millions o# other *oung .mericans that these Indians can do the same Go%s as the* can #or a #raction o# the 3agesHI II 9e ends up' 3isel*' understanding that thereIs no 3a* to stop the 3ave4 )ou cannot s3itch o## these #orces except at great cost to *our o3n economic 3ell8 %eing4 Over the last centur*' those countries that tried to preserve their s*stems' Go%s' culture or traditions %* 0eeping the rest o# the 3orld out all stagnated4 Those that opened themselves up to the 3orld prospered4 6ut that doesnIt mean *ou canIt do an*thing to prepare #or this ne3 competition and ne3 3orld4 -riedman spends a good chun0 o# the %oo0 outlining 3a*s that .merica and .mericans can place themselves in a position to do %etter4 People in advanced countries have to #ind 3a*s to move up the value chain' to have special s0ills that create superior products #or 3hich the* can charge extra4 The UP( stor* is a classic example o# this4 Delivering goods doesnIt have high margins' %ut repairing computers Jand in e##ect managing a suppl* chainK does4 In one o# -riedmanIs classic anecdote8as8explanation shtic0s' he recounts that one o# his %est #riends is an illustrator4 The #riend sa3 his %usiness %eginning to dr* up as computers made routine illustrations eas* to do' and he moved on to something ne34 9e %ecame an illustration consultant' helping clients conceive o# 3hat the* 3ant rather than simpl* executing a dra3ing4 -riedman explains this in -riedman metaphors" the #riendIs 3or0 %egan as a chocolate sauce' 3as turned into a vanilla commodit*' through upgraded s0ills %ecame a special chocolate sauce again' and then had a cherr* put on top4 .ll clearH O# course it 3onIt %e as eas* as that' as -riedman 0no3s4 9e points to the dramatic erosion o# .mericaIs science and technolog* %ase' 3hich has %een

mas0ed in recent decades %* another aspect o# glo%alization4 .merica no3 imports #oreigners to do the scienti#ic 3or0 that its citizens no longer 3ant to do or even 0no3 ho3 to do4 2earl* one in #ive scientists and engineers in the United (tates is an immigrant' and B: percent o# doctorates in engineering go to #oreigners4 .mericaIs soaring health care costs are increasingl* a %urden in a glo%al race' particularl* since .merican industr* is especiall* disadvantaged on this issue4 .n .merican carma0er pa*s a%out Q@',,, per 3or0er #or health care4 I# it moves its #actor* up to Canada' 3here the government runs and pa*s #or medical coverage' the compan* pa*s onl* Q<,,4 Most o# -riedmanIs solutions to these 0inds o# pro%lems are intelligent' neoli%eral 3a*s o# using government in a mar0et8#riendl* 3a* to #urther the countr*Is a%ilit* to compete in a #lat 3orld4 There are di##iculties 3ith the %oo04 Once -riedman gets through explicating his main point' he thro3s in too man* extras 88 perhaps tr*ing to ma0e that chocolate sundae 88 ma0ing the %oo0 seem slightl* padded4 The process o# #lattening that he is descri%ing is in its in#anc*4 India is still a poor third83orld countr*' %ut i# *ou read this %oo0 *ou 3ould assume it is on the verge o# %ecoming a glo%al superstar4 JThough as an Indian8.merican' I read -riedman and 3hisper the old 1e3ish sa*ing' II-rom *our lips to $odIs ears4IIK .nd 3hile this %oo0 is not as po3er#ul as -riedmanIs earlier ones 88 it is' as the pu%lisher notes' an IIupdateII o# IIThe Lexus and the Olive TreeII 88 its #undamental insight is true and deepl* important4 In explaining this insight and this ne3 3orld' -riedman can sometimes sound li0e a technological determinist4 .nd 3hile he does ac0no3ledge political #actors' the* get little space in the %oo0' 3hich gives it a lopsided #eel4 I 3ould argue that one o# the primar* #orces driving the #lat 3orld is actuall* the shi#ting attitudes and policies o# governments around the 3orld4 -rom 6razil to (outh .#rica to India' governments are %ecoming more mar0et8#riendl*' accepting that the %est 3a* to cure povert* is to aim #or high8gro3th policies4 This change' more than an* other' has unleashed the energ* o# the private sector4 .#ter all' India had hundreds o# thousands o# trained engineers in the :;=,Is' %ut the* didnIt produce gro3th4 In the United (tates and Europe' deregulation policies spurred the competition that led to radical innovation4 There is a chic0en8and8egg pro%lem' to %e sure4 Did government policies create the technological %oom or vice versaH .t least one can sa* that each #urthered the other4 The largest political #actor is' o# course' the structure o# glo%al politics4 The #lat economic 3orld has %een created %* an extremel* un#lat political 3orld4 The United (tates dominates the glo%e li0e no countr* since ancient Rome4 It has

%een at the #ore#ront' pushing #or open mar0ets' open trade and open politics4 6ut the conseCuence o# these policies 3ill %e to create a more nearl* eCual 3orld' economicall* and politicall*4 I# China gro3s economicall*' at some point it 3ill also gain political am%itions4 I# 6razil continues to surge' it 3ill 3ant to have a larger voice on the international stage4 I# India gains economic muscle' histor* suggests that it 3ill also 3ant the securit* o# a stronger militar*4 -riedman tells us that the economic relations %et3een states 3ill %e a po3er#ul deterrent to 3ar' 3hich is true i# nations act sensi%l*4 6ut as 3e have seen over the last three *ears' pride' honor and rage pla* a large part in glo%al politics4 The ultimate challenge #or .merica 88 and #or .mericans 88 is 3hether 3e are prepared #or this #lat 3orld' economic and political4 !hile hierarchies are %eing eroded and pla*ing #ields leveled as other countries and people rise in importance and am%ition' are 3e conducting ourselves in a 3a* that 3ill succeed in this ne3 atmosphereH Or 3ill it turn out that' having glo%alized the 3orld' the United (tates had #orgotten to glo%alize itsel#H )# Commanding *eights: The Battle for the &orld +conom, Commanding Heights is a %oo0 %* Daniel )ergin and 1oseph (tanisla3' #irst pu%lished as The Commanding Heights: The Battle Between Government and the Marketplace That Is Remaking the Modern World in :;;<4 In +,,+' it 3as turned into a documentar* o# the same title' and later released on DPD4 Commanding Heights attempts to trace the rise o# #ree mar0ets during the last centur*' as 3ell as the process o# glo%alization4 The %oo0 attri%utes the origin o# the phrase ?commanding heights? to a speech %* Pladimir Lenin re#erring to the control o# perceived 0e* segments o# a national econom*4 http"LL3334p%s4orgL3g%hLcommandingheightsLhiLstor*Lindex4html -# Team .pirit Revie3ed %* 1a* R4 Mandle (unda*' 1ul* >' +,,>A Page 6!,; 9O! (OCCER ERPL.I2( T9E !ORLD .n Unli0el* Theor* o# $lo%alization 6* -ran0lin -oer4 9arperCollins4+@: pp4 Q+>4;B -ran0lin -oer' armed 3ith a terri#ic idea' too0 six months o## #rom his Go% as a


sta## 3riter at the 2e3 Repu%lic to tour the soccer capitals o# the 3orld4 9e set out to o%serve soccer as a 3a* to understand the conseCuences o# glo%alization 88 the increasing interdependence o# the 3orldIs nations 88 %* stud*ing a sport in 3hich ?national %orders and national identities had %een s3ept into the dust%in o# soccer histor*4? The result is a travelogue #ull o# important insights into %oth cultural change and persistence4 -oer returned #rom this glo%al tour convinced that glo%alization has not and 3ill not soon 3ipe a3a* local institutions and cultures4 On the contrar*' he suspects that the opposite has happened" In response to the threat o# glo%al integration' local entities have launched counterattac0s that are success#ul %ut ?not al3a*s in such a good 3a*4? Local %lood #euds and corruption have proved to %e remar0a%l* persistent4 (o persistent' in #act' that -oer %elieves that glo%alization is not li0el* to deliver on the promise o# a more humane 3orld order that some o# its proponents anticipate4 That 3ould reCuire a li%eral nationalism' a development necessar* ?to %lunt the return o# tri%alism4? (occer' at its %est' sho3s ho3 this might 3or04 -or -oer' the sport demonstrates that ?*ou could love *our countr* 88 even consider it a superior group 88 3ithout desiring to dominate other groups or closing *oursel# o## to #oreign impulses4? Regarding the ?not so good 3a*s? that locals respond to glo%alism' -oer #ound much to 3orr* a%out4 The 3orld o# soccer can %e Cuite ugl*4 In (er%ia' #ans o# Red (tar 6elgrade %ecame' as he puts it' ?MilosevicIs shoc0 troops' the most active agents o# ethnic cleansing' highl* e##icient practitioners o# genocide4? The ?un#inished #ight over the Protestant Re#ormation? is 0ept alive in the stands in $lasgo34 .nd' at least as he reports it' Margaret Thatcher 3as not #ar o## the mar0 3hen she said that the hooliganism that emerged in soccer during the :;<,s 3as ?a disgrace to civilized societ*4? -oer argues that the gruesome antisocial #an %ehavior that occurs 3hen soccer is at its 3orst is counter%alanced in other places 3here the sport pla*s a role in creating a more humane order4 The most interesting and unli0el* o# these is Iran4 During the Islamic Revolution o# :;=;' 3omen 3ere prohi%ited #rom attending soccer games at TehranIs :+,',,,8seat stadium4 6ut' as -oer tells it' this %anning never #ull* too0 e##ect' 3ith some 3omen snea0ing into the #acilit* dressed in menIs clothes4 Pressed %* #emale soccer #ans' the ruling Iranian clerg* issued a ne3 #at3a in :;<= that allo3ed 3omen to 3atch games on television' though the %an on attendance remained in place4 This compromise could not survive the Gu%ilation that #ollo3ed the Iranian

national teamIs success#ul capture o# a !orld Cup %erth in :;;=4 The team itsel# 3as at least to some extent a participant in the li%eral glo%al order" Its coach 3as a 6razilian 3ho 3ore a nec0tie' an accessor* that the ruling clerg* considered a European imposition4 6ut the victor* cele%ration and its a#termath 3ere even more important4 -oer reports that man* o# the *ounger cele%rants 3ere 3omen' some o# 3hom danced 3ith uncovered heads4 -urther' at the o##icial cele%ration at the stadium' 3hen 3omen 3ere denied entrance the* mounted a demonstration4 The* shouted' ?.renIt 3e part o# this nationH !e 3ant to cele%rate too4 !e arenIt ants4? Ultimatel* the* %ro0e through the police %arriers and Goined the mass victor* part*4 -oer compares this ?#oot%all revolution? to the 6oston Tea Part*4 9e notes that the event 3ill ?go do3n as the moment 3hen the people #irst realized that the* could challenge their t*rannical rulers4? .s the United (tates loo0s #or 3a*s to encourage li%eralism 3ithin Islam' an event such as this deserves attention4 Its impact suggests that Paul !ol#o3itz' i# no one else' should read this account4 U4(4 exceptionalism is no3here more evident than in soccer4 Millions o# 0ids have pla*ed it' and ?soccer mom? has %ecome part o# our political voca%ular*4 )et as a commercial enterprise' soccer largel* has #ailed here4 There is no mass mar0et #or the sport4 -oer does not reall* o##er an explanation o# this #ailure4 Rather' he contents himsel# 3ith a di##erent argument" a class anal*sis o# the attractiveness o# the sport to *uppie parents4 9e argues that middle8class and pro#essional parents reGect .merican #oot%all as too violent' %ase%all as too stress#ul J%ecause its pitcherL%atter encounter is potentiall* ego8de#latingK and %as0et%all as ghetto8tainted4 The* choose soccer %ecause it can ?minimize the pain o# competition 3hile still teaching li#e lessons4? Ma*%e' %ut -oer does not provide enough evidence on this to %e convincing4 The vein o# optimism that #lo3s through the %oo0 is made explicit in his chapter on the -C 6arcelona clu% 88 his #avorite team4 This clu%' he 3rites' possesses a modernist aesthetic' rooted in its 3or0er8cooperative origins and rein#orced %* its s*m%olic role in Catalan opposition to -ranco4 The sophistication o# the team 88 it possesses its o3n art museum' season tic0et holders vote #or the teamIs administration' and its #ollo3ers are 0no3ledgea%le a%out %oth sport and politics 88 redeems the game ?%* sho3ing that #ans can love a clu% and a countr* 3ith passion and 3ithout turning into a thug or terrorist4? -oer %elieves that nationalism need not %e xenopho%ic and that patriotism and cosmopolitanism are compati%le4 9is reading o# soccer does not ignore the ugliness that can %e associated 3ith sport and there#ore societ*4 6ut it does hold

out hope that sport can %e a vehicle #or li%eralism Jas it has %een in IranK and encourage a %enign #orm o# group identi#ication Jas it has done in (painK4 2ot3ithstanding contemporar* claims o# civilizations in con#lict' -oerIs soccer od*sse* lends 3eight to the argument that a humane 3orld order is possi%le4 6ut glo%alization alone cannot %e relied upon to accomplish that goal4 . 3orld order o# tolerance and respect also reCuires the institutions o# a vi%rant domestic li%eralism4 N 1a* R4 Mandle is the !4 6rad#ord !ile* Pro#essor o# Economics at Colgate Universit* and the author o# ?$lo%alization and the Poor4? O +,,> The !ashington Post Compan* /# The +nd of 0o!ert,: +conomic 0ossibilities for 1ur Time Intervie3 cu autorul' 1e##re* D4 (achs' de 1oanne 14 M*ers in cadrul Pu%lic .##airs Program al Carnegie Council
http"LL3334carnegiecouncil4orgLresourcesLtranscriptsLB:7+4htmlLSresLidTsaS-ile:LTheSEndSo# SPovert*4pd#

2# Ma3ing globalisation 4or3 for e!er,one: The +uropean Union and 4orld trade 6rosura a Comisiei UE http"LLec4europa4euLpu%licationsL%oo0letsLmoveL7=Len4pd# 5# The +U6s $lobal $o!ernance 7ersus China6s *armonious &orld 8ARI9 !ang )ouming la Institutul Regal Elcano http"LL3334realinstitutoelcano4orgL3psL3cmLconnectL@;;e+#<,>7e@%B<,<>,@%=< #,7<e+cc,L.RI:778 +,:,S!ang)oumingSEUS$lo%alS$overnanceSChinaS.rmoniousS!orld4pd#H MODT.1PERE(5C.C9EIDT@;;e+#<,>7e@%B<,<>,@%=<#,7<e+cc, :# The +U and the go!ernance of globali;ation: .lan .hearne' 1ean Pisani8 -err*' .ndre (apir' 2icolas Peron articol din +,,< si raportul ptr (ecretariatul Consiliului Economic UE sustinut de Presedentia UE -inlandeza +,,@ http"LLinderscience4metapress4comLmediaLd<@tgG*C*pcxrahruG7*Lcontri%utionsLvL= L=L=Lv===p++7:+B@7B+hShtmlL#ulltext4html http"LL3334unescochair4uns4ac4rsLsrLdocsLahearne+,,@$lo%alisation4pd# <# The +U=s !ie4 of China Razeen (all* . little 3hile ago I gave a tal0 in 9ong Dong on the EUEs vie3 o# China4 This is

3hat I had to sa*4 The EU vie3s China 3ith a com%ination o# a3e' ignorance' #ear' con#usion and am%ition4 It is a3ed %* ChinaEs rise4 It is largel* ignorant o# China4 Real 0no3ledge o# China' and .sia more generall*' is pathetic in 6russels' as it is in all European capitals 3ith the partial exception o# London4 European sophisticates constantl* disparage .merican insularit*' %ut 0no3ledge o# .sia is #ar superior inside the 6elt3a*' and in thin0 tan0s and universities in the United (tates' than it is an*3here in Europe4 Ignorance mixed 3ith arrogance is not an .merican preserveA it is #ound in a%undance on the Old Continent' as an* visit to a Parisian intellectual salon 3ill reveal4 Then there is #ear o# China' especiall* 3hen relations 3ith it are vie3ed in militaristic' zero8sum terms4 Perhaps that re#lects an atavistic -rench 3orld8vie34 .nd con#usion reigns' #or the EU' %eing a non8nation8state h*%rid' has no #oreign polic* to3ards China and is o#ten undermined %* the #oreign policies o# its %ig three mem%er8states JUD' -rance and $erman*K4 Last' despite these dra3%ac0s' the EUEs am%ition is to %e a privileged interlocutor and at the top ta%le 3ith China4 That re#lects the EUEs sel#8image as a po3er& in the 3orld4 EU po3er The EU is a po3er& in one sense" its mar0et size4 It is the %iggest economic space on the planet' the %iggest trading region Jaccounting #or a%out a #i#th o# 3orld tradeK' and the %iggest region #or #oreign direct investment Jaccounting #or almost hal# the stoc0s and #lo3s o# out3ard and in3ard -DIK4 This real economic po3er has t3o pillars" the (ingle Mar0et and the Common Commercial Polic*4 The EU can promote or restrict access to its internal mar0et' 3hich it uses as a %argaining chip to gain access to #oreign mar0ets4 It is no accident that internal8 mar0et and trade policies are the t3o most centralised components o# EU polic*8 ma0ing4 The* are as hard& as EU po3er gets4 .nd the* encourage the EU to export its regulator* model& to the rest o# the 3orld through trade negotiations and other means4 That applies to la%our and environmental standards' climate change' product and #ood8sa#et* standards' competition rules' government procurement regulations' all the 3a* to Corporate (ocial Responsi%ilit*' human rights' democrac* and animal 3el#are4 6ut EU po3er is severel* constrained in ever* other 3a*4 Unli0e the United (tates and China' the EU has no collective militar* po3er4 Rather it advertises so#t po3er& through diplomac*' support o# international organisations' international la3 and #oreign aid4 6ut this is a %it o# a Go0e 88 mere postmodern hot air4 It is no su%stitute #or hard po3er4 .s Les $el%' the president emeritus o# the Council #or -oreign Relations in 2e3 )or0' Cuips' so#t po3er is li0e

#orepla*A it isnEt the real thing4 .sians are acutel* a3are o# this' #or .sian elites are almost 3ithout exception hard8%oiled realists4 The* do not %u* e##eminate so#t8po3er tal04 (o#t po3er as a replacement #or hard po3er is in realit* the denial o# po3er4 -or the EU' given its ina%ilit* to exercise real political and militar* po3er in the 3orld' so#t po3er translates into h*peractivit* in international organisations and the elevation o# process over su%stance4 6ureaucratic running around in international #orums is the EUEs #oreign polic*A it is an end in itsel#4 EU #oreign polic* is impotence in search o# Piagra F that never comes4 The EUEs choice o# a ne3 president and #oreign8polic* chie# is as vivid an illustration as an* o# this pathetic realit*4 International organisations and multilateralism have their place4 6ut the EU vastl* overestimates their importance in terms o# their a%ilit* to solve glo%al pro%lems4 Usuall*' large8group activit* in international organisations is a lot o# sound and #ur* that delivers stalemate' not results4 That is the U2 3a*&' and it can also %e seen in !TO negotiations' the IM- and the !orld 6an04 More important #or glo%al pro%lem8solving' inside and outside international organisations' is small8group cooperation4 That usuall* reCuires cooperation among %ig po3ers that have %oth hard and so#t po3er4 Emerging non8!estern po3ers F China in the lead F must inevita%l* pla* %igger roles in these concerts4 (ince :;>B' such cooperation has almost invaria%l* reCuired the initiative and leadership o# the United (tates4 9ere the EU is incapa%le o# leading or co8 leadingA and there remains no su%stitute #or U( leadership4 The EU also su##ers #rom a paradox4 !ith enlargement and greater mar0et size it is 3eightier in the glo%al econom*4 6ut at the same time its decision8ma0ing has %ecome more #ragmented' ma0ing it more di##icult to coordinate national positions and spea0 3ith one voice4 That decreases its a%ilit* to 3ield collective po3er a%road4 In the one arena 3here the EU is a glo%al heav*3eight 88 trade polic* 88 competence is divided on several issues' nota%l* services and investment4 .n enlarged EU ma0es it extra8di##icult to have credi%le positions in international negotiations on services and investment4 The Lis%on Treat* is supposed to overcome these pro%lems %* streamlining decision8ma0ing4 6ut that ma* not %e the result' especiall* 3ith greater po3er #or the European Parliament4 On trade polic*' mar0et8sceptical #orces and single8issue #etishists in the EP ma* complicate decision8ma0ing and tilt polic* outcomes in a more protectionist direction4 -inall*' the glo%al economic crisis has made the EU more de#ensive and in3ard8 loo0ing4 .s a rule o# thum%' the EU has a more li%eral trade polic* 3hen the

internal mar0et is opening up and integrating4 6ut trade polic* %ecomes more protectionist 3hen the internal mar0et is under stress and deprived o# the ox*gen o# mar0et re#orms4 That is roughl* the situation toda*4 The internal mar0et is %u##eted %* crisis8induced mem%er8state measures Jmost o%viousl* on su%sidiesK that result in protectionism against other mem%er8states4 .nd there is no structural re#orm agenda4 That inevita%l* ma0es the EU more de#ensive 3ith third countries4 EU8China relations The EU and China have the 3orldEs second most important trade8and8investment relationship Ja#ter the transatlantic relationshipK4 The EU is ChinaEs %iggest trading partner4 China is the EUEs second %iggest trading partner and its %iggest source o# goods imports4 European multinationals have poured investment into China and are prominent in east8.sian suppl* chains Jin 3hich China is usuall* the last assem%l* stage %e#ore #inished products are exported %ac0 to the !estK4 (uch deep commercial relations lead inexora%l* to commercial and political tensions' as the* do in U(8China relations4 EU8China relations parallel U(8China relations in some 3a*s4 The EU' li0e the United (tates' claims un#air& Chinese competition #rom an allegedl* undervalued exchange rate' trade surpluses and hidden export su%sidies4 .nd it complains o# lac0 o# access to the Chinese mar0et due to 3ea0 intellectual8 propert* rights' standards reCuirements meant to protect domestic producers' and restrictions on services' investment and government procurement4 China %emoans its lac0 o# mar0et8econom* status& in the United (tates and EU' in addition to other protectionist measures such as trade remedies' standards restrictions and pea0 tari##s4 6ut the EU and United (tates also have di##erent approaches to China F 3ith the comparison #avouring the United (tates4 -irst' the EU has tried to cop* the U(8 China (trategic and Economic Dialogue' the high8level #orum used to address mar0et8access issues and de#use %ilateral tensions4 6ut the EU8China 9igh8Level Dialogue has come to nought4 It has not gone %e*ond o##icial exchanges o# esta%lished positions and shallo3 summitr*4 It has not led to deeper engagement on 0e* issues4 That 3as a%undantl* clear at the last EU8China summit in 2ovem%er4 (econd' the EU is 3orse than the United (tates at pushing mar0et8access priorities 3ith the Chinese4 The latter ta0e .merican negotiators seriousl*

%ecause the* ma0e concrete demands #rom a relativel* #ocused priorit* list4 This is %ac0ed up %* mar0et intelligence and vigorous lo%%*ing %* U( companies and industr* associations4 EU negotiators have a reputation #or presenting their Chinese counterparts 3ith a long laundr*8list o# demands rather than a #ocused priorit* list4 .nd European companies and industr* associations are not nearl* as vigorous and e##ective as their .merican counterparts4 Third' the EU has a ha%it o# mixing non8trade issues 3ith its trade priorities4 La%our and environmental standards' climate change' democrac*' human rights' and even animal 3el#are' 0eep intruding on the trade agenda' sometimes 3ith the threat o# trade sanctions4 (ome non8trade issues' including human rights' should %e raised 3ith the Chinese' %ut 0ept on separate trac0s #rom trade' 3ithout threatening trade sanctions4 Mixing them up allo3s the Chinese to exploit intra8 EU divisions4 This o#ten translates into %loc0age on the trade agenda and supine EU %ac0trac0ing 3hen #aced 3ith Chinese piCue and threats on human rights' #or example4 This relates to a #ourth point4 The Chinese are generall* s0il#ul and success#ul at exploiting intra8EU divisions' especiall* among the 6ig Three4 .nd #i#th' to repeat' the EU has no hard po3er4 That' in com%ination 3ith all the a%ove' causes Chinese leaders and o##icials to treat their EU counterparts 3ith less seriousness' and even respect' than their .merican counterparts4 One thing the Chinese do not respect is 3impishness4 .nd there is a strong 3hi## o# that 3ith EU so#t po3er4 ""# A 8short9 to>do list for the $%? Daniel $ros :, 2ovem%er +,:, http"LL3334ceps4euLs*stemL#ilesL%oo0L+,:,L::L2ovU+,D$U+,onU+,$+,4pd# "%# China6s Rise and the Changing Rules of the $ame in the International 1rder a CEP( report %* Maai0e O0ano89eiGmans 5 -rans8Paul van der Putten http"LL3334ceps4euLs*stemL#ilesL%oo0L:<=,4pd# ")# $lobalisation demands a more political and more democratic +urope: Only y em racing a !"ropean dimension will national political parties e a le to regenerate in the era o# glo ali$ation% 6* 1ohn Palmer .s it crosses the largel* unchartered seas o# glo%alisation' the European Union sometimes implements policies 3hich prove inadeCuate #or re#orming its econom*' strengthening its internal decision8ma0ing or see0ing greater in#luence internationall* F not least to help shape the governance o# glo%alisation itsel#4

6ut such #ailures' i# #ollo3ed %* an appropriate change o# strateg*' are li0el* to %e permanentl* or #atall* damaging to the Union itsel#4 . continuing loss o# political legitimac*' ho3ever' could pose a mortal threat to %oth the EU and the 3ider process o# European integration4 The 3arning signals in recent *ears o# a gro3ing popular unease a%out the evolution o# the EU can no longer %e ignored4 Opinion polls con#irm that the gul# %et3een the EU institutions and citizens in man* o# its += Mem%er (tates is still gro3ing4 The EU 3ill not %e a%le to con#ront the challenges o# glo%alisation unless it %ecomes less technocratic and diplomatic' and more political and democratic4 This must involve political parties giving voters in European elections a greater choice o# alternative polic* strategies4 The European pu%lic is %e3ildered %* the complexities o# polic*8ma0ing and decision8ta0ing in the EU4 This is' in part' due to the speed o# developments' especiall* the Jnecessar*K enlargement o# the Union and seemingl* constant changes in %oth EU polic* and governance4 Poters have little idea ho3 to engage 3ith the European process or 3hat democratic choices the* are %eing called on to ma0e4 EU a##airs tend to %e dismissed as excessivel* technocratic and diplomatic' and insu##icientl* political and democratic4 !hat passes #or pu%lic de%ate on Europe in man* Mem%er (tates does not help4 The political elites in most countries conduct their pu%lic discourse a%out EU a##airs in a ludicrousl* short8sighted 3a*4 Muic0 to demonise the Union and its institutions 3hen unpopular decisions are ta0en F ver* o#ten at the instigation o# the Mem%er (tates themselves F governments have not surprisingl* #ound it di##icult to mo%ilise support #or the EU 3hen the* have desperatel* needed to in their o3n interests4 It is less 3idel* appreciated that national politicians and political institutions are held in even lo3er esteem than the EU and its institutions in most Mem%er (tates4 Opinion polls reveal a startling decline in pu%lic con#idence in national political parties and government s*stems' irrespective o# the political orientation o# speci#ic governments4 -i#t* *ears ago' one in :: o# the electorate %elonged to a political part*A toda*' the #igure is Gust one in <<4 In :;@@' >+U pro#essed a ver* strong& attachment to the part* o# their choiceA toda* onl* :7U do so4 . recent Euro%arometer poll #ound that across the EU as a 3hole' Gust :=U o# the population trusted political parties' compared 3ith +;U #or civil societ* organisations F not least the church4 The EU has su##ered enormous collateral damage as a result o# the %ac0lash

against unpopular Mem%er (tate governments4 The re#erenda on the proposed Constitutional Treat* provided an irresisti%le opportunit* #or voters in -rance and the 2etherlands to punish deepl* unpopular national administrations' mainl* %ecause o# domestic economic' political or social issues Cuite unrelated to the EU4 6ut as a conseCuence o# the t3o V2oE votes' the proposed EU treat* has %een derailed4 !h* should voters #eel so disenchanted 3ith national politiciansH There has %een a stri0ing decline in VideologicalE politics since the end o# the Cold !ar4 Poters toda* are no3 uncertain 3hat the %asic Vmission and valuesE o# mainstream parties reall* are4 .ccelerating %ureaucratisation and the pro#essionalisation o# part* politics has also marginalised the in#luence o# voluntar* part* mem%ers4 Parties across Europe report a massive decline in mem%ership4 The energ* and the idealism 3hich led *ounger people to Goin political parties in the past no3 tend to lead them into support #or single8issue campaigns and activit* in voluntar* organisations4 .t the same time' glo%alisation is restricting the political space 3hich parties need to develop alternative national polic* strategies that sharpl* di##erentiate them #rom each other' %ut 3hich are credi%le in the ne3 glo%al environment4 Mainstream parties have #ound themselves driven into an ever smaller and more cro3ded space in the political centre4 This loss o# polic* di##erentiation restricts the political choices open to voters4 More 3orr*ing than the implosion o# mem%ership o# political parties has %een the do3n3ard trend in voter participation in %oth national and European elections4 Even in the larger EU Mem%er (tates' governments tend to %e seen as increasingl* marginal actors in the dramas generated %* the sometimes pain#ul adGustment to the ne3 patterns o# emplo*ment and social 3el#are policies reCuired to survive and prosper in a glo%al econom*4 Onl* extreme VpopulistE and xenopho%ic parties %ene#it %* exploiting pu%lic unease at the apparent impotence o# national governments and mainstream parties to respond to the challenges o# glo%alisation4 .t the European level' these pro%lems have %een rein#orced %* a sense that EU decision8ma0ing is too remote' too esoteric' too technocratic and too elitist4 Man* citizens %elieve that the* are denied the in#ormation the* need to adeCuatel* understand Jlet alone pass Gudgement onK 3hat is %eing done in their name %* their governments and %* the EU institutions4 More can %e done to improve pu%lic 0no3ledge and understanding o# ho3 the

Union #unctions and the 0e* polic* issues it #aces4 The recent initiatives ta0en %* European Commission Pice8President Margot !allstrWm to address these pro%lems are 3elcome4 6ut to %e e##ective' an EU communications strateg* reCuires Mem%er (tates to ta0e shared o3nership 3ith the EU institutions Jnota%l* the CommissionK o# the messages delivered to the pu%lic4 Communications cannot simpl* %e le#t to V6russelsE4 Than0s to the Convention on the -uture o# Europe' a European CitizensE Initiative 3as included in the Constitutional Treat*4 This gives citizens the right to propose that the Commission introduce ne3 legislation' although it is still unclear 3hat the minimum num%er o# Mem%er (tates in 3hich signatures need to %e collected should %e4 It is encouraging that this has %een retained in the ne3 EU Re#orm Treat*4 Improved in#ormation or a more structured s*stem o# consultation 3ith citizens F 3hile indispensa%le F ma* not su##ice to close the gap %et3een the pu%lic and the EU institutions4 .dvocates o# the more radical versions o# Vdirect democrac*E recognise that it is vulnera%le to the charges o# VcorporatismE and elitism4 Consultative democrac* 3ill tend to appeal most to organised special8interest advocates4 -or the mass o# people' involvement in the European governance process 3ill onl* have meaning 3hen the* are as0ed to choose in European elections %et3een parties 3ith di##erent programmes and values' led %* personalities 3ho present themselves as aspirant leaders o# the EU executive4 The gro3th and complexit* o# EU a##airs has made democratic accounta%ilit* 3ea0 to non8existent 3hen it is exercised purel* through elected Mem%er (tate governments and scrutin* %* national parliaments4 More can %e done to strengthen the po3ers o# national parliaments to scrutinize the %ehaviour o# governments in the Council o# Ministers4 6ut onl* a dedicated' elected European Parliament can reall* %e charged 3ith holding the EUEs executive institutions to account4 This means not onl* the Commission' %ut also the Council o# Ministers J3hen governments legislate under Communit* la3K4 !ithout dou%t' political parties Jnational and EuropeanK 3ill need to re8invent themselves at the national level i# the* are to survive the pro#ound changes in political culture %rought a%out %* glo%alisation4 .t the EU level' genuinel* European parties 3ith their o3n identities' programmes and Jeventuall*K mem%ership still have to %e %uilt4 O# course the* 3ill retain close lin0s 3ith their national a##iliates in the Mem%er (tates F in the same 3a* that man* regional parties in Mem%er (tates do4 .t present' European Parliament elections lac0 su##icient political conseCuence to engage voters4 The* are Vnot a%out enoughE in

terms o# the European political choices o##ered voters and' there#ore' tend to %e #ought on purel* national issues4 !hen the* act together through shared sovereignt* to meet the challenges o# glo%alisation' EU Mem%er (tates can create ne3 space #or polic* alternatives at a European level in a 3a* 3hich 3ould %e impossi%le #or an* single state acting alone4 O# course' the realities o# glo%alisation 3ill al3a*s impose some limits on the #reedom o# action open to the Union4 6ut the %alance o# po3er 3hich 3ould exist %et3een the glo%al mar0et and the huge potential o# the European economies i# collectivel* mo%ilised %* the Mem%er (tates 3ould %e ver* di##erent to that 3hich exists %et3een the glo%al mar0et and individual countries acting alone4 In this perspective' it %ecomes possi%le to o##er voters #ar more 3ide8ranging and signi#icant choices on issues such as Go%s' prosperit*' social Gustice and sustaina%ilit*4 Moreover' i# Mem%er (tates are #orced %* changes in the glo%al environment to ta0e the construction o# an EU Common -oreign and (ecurit* Polic* more seriousl*' a health* democratic de%ate a%out alternative European strategies in these areas too %ecomes possi%le4 Ta0en together' these developments 3ould impl* a cultural revolution #or European politicians4 The* have F #or good reasons F traditionall* seen consensus rather than con#lict and choice as central to the d*namic o# European integration4 Toda* the EU has evolved to the point 3here' 3ithout democratic political choice %et3een di##ering strategies' no popular consensus is li0el* to remain intact #or long4 On the assumption that the Re#orm Treat*' 3hich 3as agreed %* EU 9eads o# $overnment in Lis%on at the end o# +,,=' is rati#ied in all += Mem%er (tates the 3a* 3ill %e open #or EU parties to elect the President o# the Commission4 The EU parties should have gone to voters alread* in the +,,; European Parliament elections presenting serious programmatic alternatives to exploit the space #or collective action and also presenting voters 3ith their candidates #or the Presidenc* o# the European Commission as part o# their lists4 Indeed there is no reason 3h* the* should not also ma0e pu%lic 3ho the* 3ill support #or the ne3 posts o# President o# the European Council and the enhanced 9igh Representative #or -oreign and (ecurit* Polic*4 This 3ould give voters the po3er to help shape the EU executive Jthe nearest eCuivalent to a Mem%er (tate governmentK4 The maGor political groups in the European Parliament are at last serious a%out achieving #ull part* status F a development that the Constitutional Treat* 3ould have encouraged %* giving European parties their o3n legal identities and %* providing #unding4 Change is alread* under 3a*4

In a stud* o# voting patterns' (imon 9ix' Pro#essor o# European and Comparative Politics at the London (chool o# Economics' states that Xon the positive side' and potentiall* #ar more pro#ound' is the emergence o# a genuine Vdemocratic part* s*stemE in the European Parliament4 -irst' voting in the Parliament is more along transnational and ideological part* lines than along national lines' and increasingl* so4& It is alread* possi%le to discern the outlines o# a developing European demos F in the ever8gro3ing cross8%order activities o# %usiness' trade unions' non8governmental organisations and other civil societ* interests as 3ell as through the still slo3l*8emerging political li#e o# the EU institutions' a%ove all the European Parliament4 . more democratic European Union politics 3ill involve more con#lict %et3een the di##erent political #amilies and emerging European parties4 6ut through this contestation #or po3er and the political direction the Union should ta0e' the evolution o# European democratic politics 3ill strengthen4 It 3ill also strengthen and certainl* not undermine democrac* at the national and su%8national levels4 &ohn 'almer is a mem er o# the (dvisory Board o# the )ederal Tr"st in *ondon and the (dvisory Co"ncil o# the !"ropean 'olicy Centre in Br"ssels% http:++www%e"roalter%com+,--.+glo alisation/demands/a/more/political/and/ more/democratic/e"rope+ "-# The Rise of the Rest ItIs true China is %ooming' Russia is gro3ing more assertive' terrorism is a threat4 6ut i# .merica is losing the a%ilit* to dictate to this ne3 3orld' it has not lost the a%ilit* to lead4 http"LL3334ne3s3ee04comL+,,<L,BL,7Lthe8rise8o#8the8rest4print4html "/# @iscursul la primirea premiului (obel pentru economie .mart*a (en http"LLno%elprize4orgLno%elSprizesLeconomicsLlaureatesL:;;<Lsen8lecture4pd# "2# A0lan B )#? > Mobili;ing to .a!e Ci!ilisationB Lester 6ro3n http"LL3334earth8polic*4orgLimagesLuploadsL%oo0S#ilesLp%7%oo04pd# "5# India and China: a comparison . P RaG3ade Y 6( Y 1anuar* :<' +,,B Y :+",7 I(T The gap %et3een the per#ormance o# the 3orldIs t3o largest nations' China and India' 0eeps gro3ing4 T3o instances #rom entirel* di##erent #ields should give us an idea4 The 3orldIs #irst commercial maglev Jmagnetic levitationK train is operating

%et3een the Pudong International .irport and do3nto3n (hanghai4 It ta0es Gust seven minutes to cross the 7,80ilometre distance 88 3hich is a%out the same distance %et3een Mum%aiIs international airport and 2ariman Point' 3hich ta0es an*3here #rom =B minutes to a couple o# hours' to cover4 In a di##erent #ield' China 3on @7 medals in the last Ol*mpicsA India Gust one4 The gro3ing gap in economic per#ormance' too' evidences #e3 signs o# narro3ing4 9istoricall*' there are a num%er o# similarities %et3een the t3o" ancient civilisations' the 3orldIs leading and richest at one timeA going do3n the league ta%le in the second8hal# o# the second millenniumA and starting their progress to modernit* in the middle o# the last centur*4 In the :;B,s and :;@,s there 3as considera%le media de%ate on 3hich s*stem' authoritarian communism in China or parliamentar* democrac* in India' 3ill deliver %etter4 There 3as not much di##erence in the economic per#ormance roughl* until :;<,' 3hen the per capita incomes 3ere also similar4 Over the last Cuarter centur*' %oth instituted economic re#orms and gro3th accelerated4 China em%raced glo%alisation and trade enthusiasticall*' 3elcoming #oreign direct investment 3ith no inhi%itions' and graduall* gaining control o# 3orld mar0ets #or lo38tech la%our8intensive manu#actures4 !hile re#orms in India are supposed to have %een initiated in :;;:' the doctrinaire socialist polic* had %egun to %e diluted in the second innings o# Indira $andhi4 The process o# li%eralisation continued under her son RaGiv $andhi' and more dramaticall* a#ter :;;:4 The gro3th rate dou%led #rom the previous 9indu rate' %ut still lagged that o# China4 The result has %een that starting 3ith more or less the same per capita incomes +B *ears %ac0' Chinese incomes toda* are dou%le that o# IndiaIs 88 a result not onl* o# #aster $DP gro3th' %ut also o# a lo3er population increase' than0s to the one8 child polic*4 6oth #ace gro3ing economic ineCualit*4 Toda*' apart #rom higher incomes and lo3er povert*' the areas in 3hich China is #ar ahead o# us are literac*' -DI' la%our rationalisation in the pu%lic sector and in#rastructure investments4 Man* international o%servers are astounded at the sheer speed 3ith 3hich in#rastructure proGects get implemented4 .s the -inancial Times commented J1anuar* +:' +,,>K ?i# thousands o# villagers have to %e moved to ma0e 3a* #or roads or po3er stations' so %e it" investment in in#rastructure underpins ChinaIs success4? !hile the Deng revolution completel* discarded MaoIs economic model' the

Chinese havenIt #orgotten one o# the $reat 9elmsmanIs thoughts" respect *our enem* Jthat is' an* pro%lemK strategicall*' and despise him tacticall*4 The %litz0rieg8li0e implementation o# proGects is an illustration o# the latter tenet4 Contrast the 3a* the giant Three $orges Dam has come up in China' 3ith the #ate o# the (ardar (arovar ProGect in $uGarat4 .gitation' endless court cases' environmentalists' and other mani#estations o# a democratic' rule8o#8la3 societ* have not onl* dela*ed implementation perhaps %* a decade' %ut also added enormousl* to the costs4 .nd the direct cost escalation is perhaps onl* a small part o# the total cost to the econom*4 One can onl* imagine the output lost %ecause o# the dela*s in the starting o# the proGect4 Ta0e another instance 3here China is ahead o# us' namel*' la%our8intensive manu#acture4 Our la%our la3s' 3hich protect existing emplo*ment' %ut at the cost o# creating ne3 Go%s' have created a %ias in #avour o# capital8intensive investments4 .n .m%ani pre#ers a re#iner*' in 3hich the onl* comparative advantage comes out o# the dut* structure' to manu#acturing' sa*' to*s in %illions and exporting them to the 3orld4 China does not seem to %e treating P(Us as hol* co3s either 88 millions o# Go%s in state8o3ned enterprises have %een lost in preparation #or 3orld competition4 6ut ne3 ones 0eep getting created in larger num%ers4 In contrast' 3e not onl* condone over8manning' %ut also 0eep thousands emplo*ed in #actories that havenIt produced an*thing #or decades4 2o 3onder resources are short #or the much8needed investments4 Organised private industr*' a#raid o# la%our la3s' has produced #e3 ne3 ones in recent *ears4 There is a positive side to our s*stem as 3ell" 3e avoided the millions o# starvation deaths that 3ere a corollar* to MaoIs ?$reat Leap -or3ard? in augmenting steel output' and the social chaos o# his Cultural Revolution4 Onl* an authoritarian s*stem 3ould permit such excesses4 6ut the #act remains that #ast gro3th in .sia has invaria%l* come under authoritarian governments4 The correlation is strong' %ut as political correctness 3ill argue' correlation is not necessaril* cause and e##ect4 .gain' is Cuarter o# a centur* too short a period to compare the e##icac* o# enlightened' re#ormist' authoritarian regimes and political democraciesH To %e sure' there is one #ield 3here 3e have a good' i# #rightening' chance o# %eating China 88 population4 In most other areas' it is more com#orta%le to stop ma0ing comparisons4


":# &ill India 0ass China as Best $ro4ing +conom,C 6ruce Einhorn' -e%ruar* :,' +,,; Tal0 a%out a tarnished prize4 .ccording to this Economic Times stor* Jthe ET is a content partner o# 6usiness!ee0K' India ma* soon pass China to %ecome the #astest8gro3ing maGor econom*4 India ma* pip export8dependent China'& the ET 3rites' and emerge as the #astest gro3ing nation among all large economies4& To 3hich 3e should all respond" 6ig deal4 I# India does pass China' the change 3ill %e largel* a re#lection o# ho3 seriousl* the glo%al crisis is hammering the Chinese econom* F not an* sign o# Indian strength4 Indeed' consider the other ET stor* that is running along 3ith the India8China one on 6usiness!ee0Es .sia Channel toda*" $DP $ro3th in India -alls to =4:U& .nd that =4:U num%er is misleading4 .s the ET reporter points out' this is almost + percentage points %elo3 previous #iscalEs gro3th o# ;U despite t3o rounds o# #iscal stimulus pac0ages announced %* the center4& 2ot a prett* picture4 6ut according to the ET' the Indian government has %ecome h*per8active to achieve at least a @4BU gro3th in M> to register a 3in over China4& !h*H 9ereEs the ETEs explanation' presuma%l* representing the vie3 o# Indian %ureaucrats" I# India achieves a %etter gro3th rate than China even #or one Cuarter' the message 3ill go across to the 3orld and help India in 3ooing #oreign capital' 3aiting to chase gro3th stories4& Reall*H .ll it 3ill ta0e is one Cuarter o# anemic gro3th in India %eating slightl*8more8anemic gro3th in China #or investors to #orgive India all its in#rastructure pro%lemsH The %ureaucrats in 2e3 Delhi need to get out more4 Mean3hile' %ac0 on Planet Earth' the Chinese government is planning on spending almost Q@,, %illion in stimulus spending' versus Gust a #e3 %illion in India4 .nd investors in (hanghai have pushed up shares +>U so #ar this *ear' compared to a #lat mar0et in Mum%ai4 China certainl* has a ton o# trou%le ahead as it tries to re%uild its econom*' %ut no3 is certainl* not the time #or an*%od* in India to start cele%rating4 "<# India !s# China: &hose +conom, Is BetterC Michael (chuman L 9ong DongTime" Thursda*' 1an4 +<' +,:, In the inevita%le comparisons that economists and %usinesspeople ma0e %et3een .siaIs t3o rising giants' China and India' China nearl* al3a*s comes out on top4 The Chinese econom* historicall* outpaces IndiaIs %* Gust a%out ever* measure4 ChinaIs #ast8acting government implements ne3 policies 3ith %linding speed' ma0ing IndiaIs #ractured political s*stem appear sluggish and chaotic4 6eiGingIs shin* ne3 airport and 3ide #ree3a*s are models o# modern development' contrasting sharpl* 3ith the sagging in#rastructure o# 2e3 Delhi and Mum%ai4 .nd as the glo%al econom* emerges #rom the $reat Recession' India once again

seems to %e pla*ing second #iddle4 Pundits around the 3orld laud ChinaIs leadership #or its 3ell8devised economic policies during the crisis' 3hich 3ere so e##ective in restarting economic gro3th that the* helped li#t the entire .sian region out o# the do3nturn4 JRead ?.mid Recover*' ChinaIs Propert* Mar0et (oars4?K 2o3' ho3ever' India ma* #inall* have one up on its high8octane rival4 Though India still canIt compete on top8line economic gro3th Z the !orld 6an0 proGects IndiaIs gross domestic product J$DPK 3ill increase @4>U in +,,;' #ar short o# the <4=U that China announced in mid81anuar* F IndiaIs econom* loo0s to %e re%ounding #rom the do3nturn in %etter shape than ChinaIs4 India doesnIt appear to %e #acing the same degree o# potential dangers and do3nside ris0s as China' 3hich means polic*ma0ers in 2e3 Delhi might have a much easier tas0 in maintaining the econom*Is momentum than their Chinese counterparts4 ?The 3a* I see it is that the gro3th in India is much more sustaina%le? than the gro3th in China' sa*s 1im !al0er' an economist at 9ong DongF%ased research #irm .sianomics4 IndiaIs edge is due to the di##erent stimulus programs adopted %* the t3o countries to support gro3th during the do3nturn4 China implemented 3hat !al0er calls ?the %iggest stimulus program in glo%al histor*4? On top o# government outla*s #or ne3 in#rastructure and tax %rea0s' 6eiGing most signi#icantl* counted on massive credit gro3th to spur the econom*4 The amount o# ne3 loans made in +,,; nearl* dou%led #rom the *ear %e#ore to Q:4> trillion F representing almost 7,U o# $DP4 The stimulus plan 3or0ed 3onders' holding up gro3th even as ChinaIs exports dropped :@U in +,,;4 6ut no3 China is #acing the conseCuences o# its largesse4 -ears are rising that 6eiGingIs eas*8mone* policies have #ueled a potential propert*8price %u%%le4 .ccording to government data' average real estate prices in Chinese cities Gumped =4<U in Decem%er #rom a *ear earlier Z the #astest increase in :< months4 The credit %oom has also spar0ed 3orries a%out the nationIs %an0ing s*stem4 Man* economists expect the large surge in credit to lead to a gro3ing num%er o# nonper#orming loans J2PLsK4 In a 2ovem%er report' U6( economist !ang Tao calculates that i# +,U o# all ne3 lending in +,,; and :,U o# the amount in +,:, goes %ad over the next three to #ive *ears' the total amount o# 2PLs #rom ChinaIs stimulus program 3ould reach Q>,, %illion' or roughl* <U o# $DP4 Though !ang notes that the total is small compared 3ith the level o# 2PLs that Chinese %an0s carried in the past' she still calls the sum ?staggering4? Polic*ma0ers in 6eiGing are clearl* concerned4 (ince Decem%er' the* have introduced a series o# steps to cool do3n the housing mar0et and restrict access to credit %*' #or example' reintroducing taxes on certain propert* transactions and raising the reCuired level o# cash that %an0s have to 0eep on hand in an e##ort to

reduce ne3 lending4 JRead ?-oreign Luxur* Cars" Pic0ing Up (peed in India4?K India' mean3hile' isnIt experiencing nearl* the same degree o# #allout #rom its recession8#ighting methods4 The government used the same tools as ever* other to support gro3th 3hen the #inancial crisis hit F cutting interest rates' o##ering tax %rea0s and increasing #iscal spending F %ut the scale 3as smaller than in China4 $oldman (achs estimates that IndiaIs government stimulus 3ill total Q7@ %illion this #iscal *ear' or onl* 7U o# $DP4 6* comparison' ChinaIs t3o8*ear' QB<B %illion pac0age is roughl* t3ice as large' at a%out @U o# $DP per *ear4 Most important' India managed to achieve its su%stantial gro3th 3ithout putting its %an0ing sector at ris04 In #act' IndiaIs %an0s have remained Cuite conservative through the do3nturn' especiall* compared 3ith Chinese lenders4 $ro3th o# credit' #or example' 3as actuall* lo3er in +,,; than in +,,<4 .s a result' economists see continued strength in IndiaIs %an0s4 . 1anuar* report %* economic8research out#it Centennial .sia .dvisors noted that %ased on availa%le data' ?there 3as no sign that domestic %an0sI nonper#orming assets 3ere deteriorating materiall*4? 2or do anal*sts har%or the same concerns that IndiaIs monetar* policies are sending prices o# Indian real estate to %u%%le levels4 ?IndiaIs gro3th' though less stellar' does have the reassuring #actor that the [ris0s o#\ asset price %u%%les are less'? sa*s RaGat 2ag' managing director general o# the .sian Development 6an0 in Manila4 India maintained ro%ust gro3th 3ithout 6eiGingIs he#t* stimulus in part %ecause it is less exposed to the international econom*4 ChinaIs exports represented 7BU o# $DP compared 3ith onl* +>U #or India in +,,<4 Thus India 3as a##orded more protection #rom the 3orst e##ects o# the #inancial crisis in the !est' 3hile ChinaIs government needed to %e much more active to replace lost exports to the U4(4 More signi#icantl*' though' IndiaIs domestic econom* provides greater cushion #rom external shoc0s than ChinaIs4 Private domestic consumption accounts #or B=U o# $DP in India compared 3ith onl* 7BU in China4 IndiaIs con#ident consumer didnIt let the econom* do3n4 Passenger car sales in India in Decem%er Gumped >,U #rom a *ear earlier4 ?!hat 3e see [in India\ is a #undamental domestic demand stor* that doesnIt stall in the time o# a glo%al do3nturn'? sa*s .sianomicsI !al0er4 J(ee pictures o# IndiaIs ?slumdog? entrepreneurs4K The Indian econom* is not immune to ris0s4 The government has to contend 3ith a *a3ning %udget de#icit' and last *earIs 3ea0 monsoon rains 3ill li0el* undercut agricultural production and so#ten rural consumer spending4 6ut rapid gro3th is expected to continue4 The !orld 6an0 #orecasts IndiaIs econom* 3ill surge =4@U in +,:, and <U in +,::' not #ar %ehind the ;U rate it predicts #or China #or each o# those *ears4 Indian Prime Minister Manmohan (ingh' 3hen spea0ing a%out his countr*Is more plodding pace o# economic polic*ma0ing' has said that ?slo3 and stead* 3ill 3in the race4? The $reat Recession appears to have proved him right4

%?# 1+C@ peace and happiness index http"LL3334oecd4orgLpagesL,'7>:='enS>,,77>+@S>,,77<+<S:S:S:S:S:',,4html %"# &h, it=s hard to measure happiness 66C 3e%site':@ 2ovem%er +,:, Last updated at :+":> $MT The government 3ants to measure our happiness4 It 3onIt %e eas*' explains Michael 6lastland in his regular $o -igure column4 Did *ou 3a0e up #retting over the gross domestic productH Thought not4 6ut *ou might' as *ou gaze in the %athroom mirror' ponder *our happiness or 3ell8%eing4 2ot simpl* $DP then' %ut $!6 Jgeneral 3ell8%eingK' as David Cameron put it4 Though La%our 3as ta0en %* the idea too' li0e President (ar0oz* o# -rance' 3ho recentl* as0ed t3o 2o%el Prize 3inners to loo0 into it4 Dno3ing 3hether 3eIre ma0ing more than material progress ma0es sense4 The pro%lem is ho3H $DP' almost all agree' is a de#icient 3a* o# adding up 3hat matters most" ?Economic per#ormance is444 a means to an end4 That end is not the consumption o# %ee#%urgers' nor the accumulation o# television sets' nor the vanCuishing o# some high level o# interest rates' %ut rather the enrichment o# man0indIs #eeling o# 3ell8%eing4 Economic things matter onl* in so #ar as the* ma0e people happier4? (o said the UDIs happiness8and8economics guru' .ndre3 Os3ald' a smart 8 and cheer#ul 8 pro#essor o# economics #rom !ar3ic0 Universit*4 9orri%l* di##icult 9ereIs the eas* 3a* to do it4 -irst' ta0e a large' random sample o# people and as0 them a Cuestion li0e" ?!hen allIs said and done' at the end o# the da* 6rian' ta0ing the rough 3ith the smooth and all that' rate *our 3ell8%eing on a scale o# one to :,4? .nd 3e could stop there and add up the national total each *ear to see i# 3ell8 %eing has improved4 6ut that 3ould onl* invite more Cuestions' li0e ?3hat causes 3ell8%eing to changeH? !eId then have to as0 lots o# other Cuestions a%out age' gender' marital status' emplo*ment Jor notK' Cuali#ications' housing' recreation and so on4 (o' marrieds score higher than singlesH MED' marriage is good #or 3ell%eing4 Or ma*%e not4 -or it soon gets tric0*4 Ma*%e happ* people are more li0el* to marr* and 3e had cause and e##ect the 3rong 3a* round4 ThatIs a ris0' sa* researchers' 3hich the* address %* trac0ing people over time' to see ho3 happ* the* 3ere %e#ore marr*ing and 3hat di##erence marriage made4 6ut 3hat i# people are happier in their 7,s than their +,sH I# so' #ollo3ing them

over the *ears also pic0s up the happiness e##ect o# ageing 8 3hich 3e might #alsel* attri%ute to marriage4 (o *ou have to #ind out' are 7,8somethings happier than +,8somethings and' i# so' can 3e strip that e##ect out o# the marriage e##ect that ma* have happened at the same timeH (till 3ith meH .nd so on' #or ever*thing *ou can thin0 o# that might mess up *our measurement o# the e##ect o# one thing on 3ell8%eing' rather than another4 (o even the eas* 3a* is not al3a*s eas*4 -or an interesting attempt to measure cause and e##ect tr* Mappiness' a proGect run %* the London (chool o# Economics' 3hich o##ers a phone app that prompts *ou to record *our mood and situation4 I9app* classesI The Mappiness 3e%site sa*s" ?!eIre particularl* interested in ho3 peopleIs happiness is a##ected %* their local environment 8 air pollution' noise' green spaces' and so on 8 3hich the data #rom Mappiness 3ill %e a%solutel* great #or investigating4? !ill it 3or0H !ith enough people' it might4 6ut there are other pro%lems4 !eIve %een using happiness and 3ell8%eing interchangea%l*4 Is that o0H The di##erence comes out in a sentiment li0e" ?!e 3ere happiest during the 3ar4? 6ut 3as our 3ell8%eing also greatest thenH .nd 3hatIs the polic* responseH That 3hat 3e need is a 3arH .nd then *ou remem%er" 3eIve got one 8 and itIs not ma0ing us happ*4 Ma*%e thatIs %ecause to %e reall* happ* it has to %e a 3ar o# national survival4 Ma*%e 3hat 3e need to %e reall* happ*' in other 3ords' is #or our circumstances to %e reall* misera%le4 6ut ma*%e this 3ar is improving our 3ell8%eing %* protecting us #rom terrorH (o values and political Gudgements a%out 3hat constitutes 3ell8%eing soon mudd* the 3aters' and these ma* %e di##erent #rom 3hat ma0es us happ*4 !hatIs more' *our 3ell8%eing ma* not %e improved %* the same things as mine4 The #act that *ou li0e to get stoned isnIt going to see canna%is in Tesco4 Contentious Our leaders have to 3eigh up the pros and antis on each side o# an* #actor in @,m peopleIs 3ell8%eing4 Ma*%e m* environmental 3ell8%eing 8 a categor* o#ten discussed 8 is served %* rene3a%le energ*' *ours %* hillsides #ree #rom 3ind8 tur%ines4 It all %egins to sound less li0e measurement than politics4 That might mean 3e are restricted to counting good or %ad things a%out 3hich #e3 disagree' li0e in#ant mortalit*4 .nother di##icult* is that some things that ma0e a %ig di##erence are hard to measure' li0e health8gain #rom an operation' and hard to add to other good things' li0e clean air' to produce a national total4 Or do *ou have masses o# di##erent'

incommensurate indicatorsH The OECD has %een ta0ing a serious loo0 at this #or several *ears4 The )oung -oundation has also given it thought4 (ome o# the social indicators the OECD has considered include average *ears o# schooling' gender 3age gaps' participation in voluntar* groups and suicide rates4 6ut decide #or *oursel# 3hat 3e should count to3ards 3ell8%eing4 In #act' 3e measure all this alread*' through the O##ice #or 2ational (tatistics JO2(K and others4 Polunteering is a great one 8 so good #or us' Evan Davis once Go0ed' that it ought to %e made compulsor*4 Ma*%e thatIs 3hat the 6ig (ociet* is a%out4 Other research has suggested that 3hat people sa* improves their 3ell8%eing 8 li0e having children 8 is at odds 3ith 3hat the* report a%out their happiness in the moment" ?Oh no' not the school holida*s]? Emotional resilience .nd even i# 3e could agree 3hat 3as good #or 3ell8%eing' that doesnIt tell us ho3 %est to achieve it4 That loneliness and isolation are o#ten %ad #or us might mean that the state should do more 8 or less' i# 3e thin0 peopleIs relationships thrive 3hen the state gets out o# their 3a* and reminds #amilies o# their o3n responsi%ilities4 (o is 3ell8%eing too 3ooll*' too contentious' too value8laden to %e use#ulH I# so' should 3e give upH 9ereIs an argument #or giving it some thought" even i# 3e canIt agree 3here the responsi%ilit* lies #or addressing isolation' sa*' at least 3e might rethin0 the 3eight 3e attach to it among other priorities4 )es' a polic* might help economic gro3th' %ut have 3e properl* considered the so#ter costs and %ene#itsH On the practical side' there is evidence that children can %e taught emotional resilience 8 lessons derided %* some as ?happ* classes? 8 %ut this does indeed improve their su%Gective sense o# 3ell8%eing4 The simple exercise o# introducing #eelings to the national accounts' or thin0ing o# them as a legitimate o%Gective o# polic*' or o# stretching the measure o# national progress to include things that are not easil* monetized' is horri%l* di##icult' %ut might %e a 3a* o# reminding ourselves o# 3hat 3e most care a%out4 %%# +conomia cri;elor# Curs>fulger despre !iitorul finanDelor #ragmente din 2ouriel Rou%ini preluat din Critic.tac' B noiem%rie +,:, 2ouriel Rou%ini este pro#esor de economie la (tern (chool o# 6usiness J2e3 )or0 Universit*K ^i pre^edinte al #irmei de consultan_` economic` R$E Monitor4 Imediat dup` o%_inerea doctoratului an Economie interna_ional` J:;<<' 9arvard (chool o# 6usinessK' a anceput s` predea la )ale ^i a #ost inclus an 2ational

6ureau o# Economic Research ^i an echipa de consultan_i a -MI4 Rou%ini este printre pu_inii economi^ti care au prezis criza din +,,<' el vor%ind despre pericolul #inanciar anc` de la anceputul anilor +,,,4 bi8a atras ast#el supranumele cDr Dezastru&' anlocuit ulterior de un altul' cel de cPro#et al crizei&4 El a#irm` ans` c` este cDr Realist&4 dn +,,;' Prospect Magazine l8a votat num`rul + an rendul celor o sut` de intelectuali contemporani importan_i' iar -oreign Polic* l8a plasat pe locul > an topul celor o sut` de teoreticieni4 . mai scris 2e3 International -inancial .rchitecture J+,,@K' 6ailouts or 6ail8 insH Responding to -inancial Crises in Emerging Economies J+,,>K ^i Political C*cles and the Macroeconom* J:;;=K4 (tephen Mihm scrie despre economie ^i istorie pentru The 2e3 )or0 Times Magazine' The 6oston $lo%e ^i alte pu%lica_ii4 . primit mai multe %urse pentru cercetare' printre care ^i o %urs` postdoctoral` de cercetare a Istoriei a#acerilor' la 9arvard 6usiness (chool4 Este pro#esor asociat la Universit* o# $eorgia' unde pred` cursuri de istorie politic`' cultural` ^i economic` american`4 Este autorul c`r_ilor . 2ation o# Counter#eiters" Capitalists' Con Men' and the Ma0ing o# the United (tates J+,,=K ^i .rti#icial Parts and Practical Lives" Modern 9istories o# Prosthetics J+,,+K4 PER(PECTIPE Jultimul capitol din cartea Economia crizelor4 Curs8#ulger despre viitorul #inan_elorK dn timpul crizei #inanciare glo%ale din +,,=F+,,<' lumea s -a uitat an a%is4 Pe durata celui de-al patrulea trimestru din +,,< ^i a primului trimestru din +,,;' activitatea economic` a lumii s-a redus antr-un ritm nemaiantelnit de la de%utul Marii Depresiuni4 Doar m`surile rapide ^i radicale luate de guvernan_ii din ceteva _`ri au oprit sengerarea4 De^i nu antotdeauna %ine coordonat` sau atent`' aceast` reac_ie colectiv` a prevenit cu succes o alt` depresiune ^i economiile de pe mapamond ^i -au ancetat c`derea li%er`4 Pericolul de#la_iei s-a andep`rtat ^i lumea a anceput s`-^i revin`4 Economiile emergente au #ost primele care au scos motorul din mar^arier' iar pen` an trimestrul al treilea din +,,;' maGoritatea economiilor avansate a^i opriser` ^i ele procesul de contrac_ie4 Dar' de^i economia glo%al` a anceput s` se anvioreze' punctele sale vulnera%ile ^i riscurile la care e supus` o pot duce spre noi crize an anii care vin4 Un posi%il deznod`ment ar #i acela an care explozia de#icitelor #iscale ar ampinge unele _`ri s` se declare an incapacitate de plat` sau s` pun` an #unc_iune tiparni_a de %ani pentru a-^i diminua povara datoriilor' declan^end genul de in#la_ie ridicat` care


nu s-a mai v`zut din anii :;=,4 Pot ap`rea ^i alte necazuri4 O permisivitate extrem` a politicilor monetare ^i a relax`rii cantitative F an com%ina_ie cu apetitul crescend al investitorilor pentru opera_iuni carr* trade pe dolar F poate stimula un %alon speculativ anc` ^i mai mare decet cel care tocmai s-a spart4 Dac` e s` se dezum#le %rusc' valoarea activelor riscante ^i a avu_iei glo%ale va sc`dea puternic' existend pericolul unei recesiuni glo%ale cu minime du%le4 .r putea avea loc ^i alte evenimente' tot atet de ansp`iment`toare4 Uniunea Monetar` European` s-ar putea rupe4 (au 1aponia s-ar putea antoarce iar la de#la_ie ^i cvasirecesiune' declan^end o criz` maGor` a datoriei na_ionale4 Pen` ^i China se con#runt` cu riscuri tot mai mari" redresarea ei %azat` pe investi_ii ^i -ar putea pierde su#lul' eventual declan^end o cre^tere a creditelor neper#ormante ^i' an cele din urm`' o criz` %ancar`4 Toate aceste scenarii ar putea duce la o in#lamare a sentimentelor antiglo%alizare4 Multe depind de #elul an care a^i revine F sau se clatin` F economia glo%al` an urm`torii ce_iva ani4 Iat`' a^adar' an continuare' o scurt` privire de ansam%lu asupra pericolelor pe termen apropiat cu care ne con#runt`m4 JPentru o analiz` mult' mult mai detaliat`' cititorii sunt ruga_i s` viziteze site -ul Rou%ini $lo%al Economics de la adresa 3334rou%ini4com4K P'Usau!H Parcursul redres`rii se poate reprezenta an #orme di#erite' care re#lect` gradul relativ de vigoare ^i de sustena%ilitate ale procesului4 O redresare an #orm` de P este iute ^i viguroas`A o redresare an #orm` de U este lent` ^i decep_ionant`A iar una an #orm` de ! este o redresare du%lu minimal`' an care economia trece printr-o remisiune trec`toare' doar ca s` plonGeze iar spre zero4 Cel mai pro%a%il scenariu la ora actual` este o revenire an #orm` U pentru economiile avansate' avend an prim -plan o cre^tere de%il`' su% cur%a de tendin_`' pentru un num`r de ani4 Iat` de ce4 dn primul rend' condi_iile de pe pia_a muncii r`men an continuare proaste4 dn +,:,' rata ^omaGului din (tatele Unite a atins :, la sut`4 JUn indicator ceva mai cuprinz`tor' care ai ia an calcul ^i pe lucr`torii cu angaGare par_ial` ^i pe cei descuraGa_i' a dep`^it := la sut`4K Multe sluG%e din domeniul imo%iliar' din cel al construc_iilor ^i din sectorul #inanciar au disp`rut pentru totdeauna4 La #el' multe locuri de munc` din produc_ie ^i din servicii' care au #ost externalizate an a#ara grani_elor _`rii' nu se vor mai antoarce acas` niciodat`4 Pen` ^i lucr`torii care ^i-au p`strat sluG%ele au avut parte de sc`derea veniturilor4 Multe #irme' an numele csolidarit`_ii ^i la r`u' nu numai la %ine ' le -au cerut angaGa_ilor lor s` munceasc` ore mai pu_ine' s` plece an concediu sau chiar s` accepte reduceri de salariu4 (c`derea num`rului de ore lucrate a echivalat cu

pierderea altor 7 milioane de posturi cu norm` antreag`' peste cele <'> milioane de locuri de munc` o#icial declarate pierdute pen` la s#er^itul anului +,,;4 .ceste pierderi s-ar putea s` continue" un studiu recent al lui .lan 6linder sugereaz` c` nu mai pu_in de o p`trime din totalul sluG%elor americane s-ar putea pen` la urm` s` #ie externalizate4: Prin urmare' rata ^omaGului s-ar putea s` mai creasc` o vreme' iar cend va aGunge s` scad`' acest lucru se va antempla #oarte lent4 Mai mult decet atet' actuala recesiune se deose%e^te de cele precedente4 .ceast` criz` recent` a luat na^tere din excesele de andatorare ^i supraandatorare din sectorul gospod`riilor' din sistemul #inanciar ^i chiar din sectorul corporatist4 Recesiunea n-a avut ca #or_` motrice an`sprirea politicii monetareA a #ost o recesiune cde %ilan_ conta%il ' impulsionat` printr-o colosal` acumulare a datoriilor4 Recente cercet`ri antreprinse de Carmen Reinhart ^i Denneth Rogo## sugereaz` c` o recesiune cde %ilan_ conta%il poate s` duc` la o redresare anemic`' pe m`sur` ce #iecare sector al economiei se dezandatoreaz` ^i-^i reduce o%liga_iile de plat`4 Ceea ce va dura ceva timp4 $ospod`riile din (tatele Unite ^i din Marea 6ritanie au economisit prea pu_in ^i au cheltuit prea mult4 Cu toate c` rata economisirii an .merica a dep`^it > la sut` la s#er^itul anului +,,;' studiile antreprinse de -MI ^i de al_i cercet`tori serio^i sugereaz` c` aceast` rat` tre%uie s` creasc` la cel pu_in < procente' an urm`torii ce_iva ani4+ Lucru care va presupune rate mai sc`zute ale consumului4 Dar' din moment ce consumul este de =, la sut` din PI6 an (tatele Unite J^i extrem de ridicat an alte _`ri care au asistat ^i ele la un declin al ratelor economisiriiK' un ritm diminuat de cre^tere a consumului poate su%mina cre^terea economic`4 .l_i indicatori par s` semnaleze o redresare an #orm` de U4 De regul`' antr -o redresare an #orm` de P' sectorul corporatist a^i canalizeaz` %anii spre cheltuieli de capital F an miGloace de produc_ie F' contri%uind la o revenire rapid`4 Din ne#ericire' an cadrul acestei redres`ri' cheltuiala de capital va #i anemic`' pentru c` mare parte din capacitatea economiei J#a%rici' instala_ii de produc_ie' calculatoare ^i alte active #ixeK st` deGa degea%a' ne#olosit`4 dntr-adev`r' capacitatea ^i-a atins pragul de Gos la un nivel J@= la sut`K mult mai co%oret decet an cazul recesiunilor anterioare Jantre =B ^i <, la sut`K4 Chiar ^i la #inalul lui +,,;' an (tatele Unite ^i an Europa r`menea neexploatat` 7, la sut` din capacitate4 Ce motive ar avea #irmele' antr-un asemenea climat' s` demareze noi cheltuieli de capitalH dn plus' cu tot spriGinul pe care sistemul #inanciar l -a primit de la guvern' vaste por_iuni din el au #ost grav preGudiciate4 La data la care scriem noi aceast` carte' numai an (tatele Unite' -DIC-ul a anchis peste :7, de %`nci ^i a pus cel pu_in B,, pe lista celor _inute su% o%serva_ie4 Mai important' sistemul %an -car paralel

s-a pr`%u^it an mare parte sau a su#erit pagu%e irepara%ileA din ce -a r`mas an picioare' mare parte a intrat an ograda statului4 dn po#ida su%ven_iilor pu%lice' securitizarea nu mai e decet o um%r` a ce -a #ost cendva' ^i pen` ^i #irmele de investi_ii an companii private continu` s` se lupte cu consecin_ele #aptului de a -^i #i asumat prea mult levier #inanciar4 Pa curge mult` ap` pe gerl` pen` s` se vindece r`nile sistemului #inanciar4 Capacitatea lui de-a #inan_a pe viitor investi_ii an proiecte reziden_iale' activit`_i de construc_ii' cheltuieli de capital productiv ^i consumul de %unuri de #olosin_` andelungat`' deGa serios diminuat`' va r`mene an continuare serios restric_ionat`4 2u ne vom antoarce la genul de cre^tere c`reia i -am #ost martori an anii de glorie +,,7F+,,=' #inan_at` printr-un %alon al credit`rii imposi%il de sus_inut4 .l_i #actori sugereaz` pro%a%ilitatea unei redres`ri an #orm` de U4 Politicile care au aGutat economia s`-^i revin` F mai ales stimulentele #iscale F nu pot dura la nes#er^it4 Odat` retras aGutorul #iscal' va urma o cre^tere mai lent`4 Dac` nu va #i retras F dac` guvernan_ii vor recurge la de#icite anc` ^i mai mari pentru a acoperi reducerile de taxe ^i maGor`rile de cheltuieli F' atunci pur ^i simplu ne vom s`pa singuri groapa pentru o deraiere #iscal` mult mai mare4 Continuarea cheltuielilor de stimulare economic` va duce ^i la ante_irea temerilor c` _`rile nu -^i vor mai pl`ti datoriile sau c` le vor ^terge cu aGutorul in#la_iei' ampingend ^i mai sus ratele do%enzii pe termen lung ^i an`%u^ind redresarea prin retragerea creditului de pe pia_` de c`tre %anca central`4 dn s#er^it' persisten_a dezechili%relor glo%ale de cont curent implic` o cre^tere mai lent` an plan mondial pentru urm`torii ce_iva ani4 Pe parcursul ultimului deceniu' (tatele Unite F precum ^i _`ri ca Marea 6ritanie' Irlanda' Islanda' (pania' Du%ai' .ustralia' 2oua /eeland`' statele %altice ^i alte economii din Europa Central` F au andeplinit #unc_ia de consumator al lumii' de prim` ^i ultim` instan_`' cheltuind mai mult decet ce^tigau ^i anregistrend de#icite de cont curent4 Invers' China' .sia emergent`' maGoritatea statelor .mericii Latine' 1aponia' $ermania ^i alte ceteva economii din /ona Euro au servit drept produc`tori de prim` ^i ultim` instan_`' cheltuind mai pu_in decet ce^tigau ^i anregistrend excedente de cont curent4 Primul grup de _`ri caut` s` se replieze' economisind mai mult ^i importend mai pu_in' dar cel de-al doilea grup nu compenseaz` prin a economisi mai pu_in ^i a cheltui mai mult4 dn mod necesar' aceasta anseamn` un declin net al cererii mon8 diale pentru %unuri4 Dat #iind c` lumea noastr` are deGa o supraa%unden_` de capacitate industrial`' redresarea cererii glo%ale agregate va #i an cel mai %un caz de%il`4 To_i ace^ti #actori indic` o redresare lent` an #orm` de U pentru (tatele Unite ^i pentru alte economii avansate care cheltuiesc cu ochii anchi^i4 Redresarea poate

c` nu va p`rea s` #ie de aceast` #orm`' la anceput" antr -adev`r' cre^terea economiei americane pentru al patrulea trimestru din +,,; a #ost de B'; la sut`' cea mai puternic` din ultimii ^ase ani4 Dar aceast` ci#r` poate #i explicat`' an cea mai mare parte' prin e#ectele directe ^i indirecte ale stimulentelor #iscale' precum ^i prin #aptul c`' an ultimele luni din +,,;' companiile ^i-au completat stocurile4 Toate aceste #or_e ar putea aduce cre^terea pen` la 7 procente sau chiar mai sus' an prima Gum`tate a anului +,:,4 La #el ^i e#ectele anc` nedisipate ale programelor cRa%la ' de reannoire a parcului auto' ^i cPrima cas` ' de creditare #iscal` pentru cei care-^i cump`r` prima locuin_`4 6iroul (tatistic al (tatelor Unite mai mult ca sigur c` va angaGa aproape un milion de lucr`tori temporari pentru recens`mentul general din +,:,' ceea ce va aGuta la sus_inerea cererii pentru o scurt` perioad`4 Dar cre^terea va %ate pasul pe loc an a doua Gum`tate a anului' cend e#ectele acestor m`suri temporare se vor #i disipat4 Moment an care cre^terea economic` se va domoli r`u de tot' pen` cend vor #i avut loc maGor`rile necesare an rata economisirilor ^i an cea de dez-andatorare' ale sectorului pu%lic ^i ale celui privat4 Europa pe muchie Oricet de prost arat` lucrurile an (tatele Unite' perspectivele pe termen mediu ale /onei Euro ^i ale 1aponiei s-ar putea s` #ie tot atet de proaste' dac` nu ^i mai ^i4 dn am%ele regiuni' redresarea va #i an #orm` de U' din multe motive4 Mai antei' poten_iala rat` de cre^tere a /onei Euro' ca ^i cea a 1aponiei Jan Gur de + la sut`K' este mai sc`zut` decet cea a (tatelor Unite4 dn al doilea rend' aceste _`ri vor avea di#icult`_i mai mari an a contracara e#ectele crizei cu aGutorul politicii #iscale" chiar ^i anainte de +,,=' ele anregistrau mari de#icite #iscale ^i aveau volume mari de datorie pu%lic`' an raport cu PI6 -ul na_ional Jan multe cazuri' aproape de sut` la sut` sau pesteK47 dn al treilea rend' aceste _`ri se con#runt` cu greut`_i serioase atet pe termen scurt' cet ^i pe termen lung" un ritm sla% de cre^tere a productivit`_ii ^i popula_ii am%`trenite4 2iciuna din aceste pro%leme nu se las` u^or rezolvat`4 Mai mult decet atet' un grup de _`ri din /ona Euro' a^a -numitele PI$( F Portugalia' Italia' $recia ^i (pania F' sunt an mare %ucluc4 dn ultimii ani' datoriile lor au crescut exponen_ial ^i competitivitatea le-a sc`zut4 Motivele sunt complicate4 .doptarea monedei euro le-a permis s` se amprumute mai mult ^i s` consume mai mult decet ar #i #`cut -o an alt` situa_ie4 6oomul creditului care a rezultat de aici a sus_inut consumul' dar a dus ^i la maGorarea salariilor4 .cest lucru le-a diminuat competitivitatea exporturilor4 dn acela^i timp' %irocra_ia exce8 siv` ^i alte impedimente structurale au descuraGat investi_iile an sectoarele cu analt nivel de cali#icare' cu toate c` salariile din aceste _`ri se plasau mult an urma mediei pentru Uniunea European`4

Com%ina_ia nociv` rezultat`' respectiv de#icite mari de cont curent peste de#icite %ugetare' le-a #`cut pe _`rile PI$( s` se andatoreze masiv la %`ncile din alte p`r_i ale Europei4 Toate au un coe#icient imens de andatorare a resurselor proprii' ceea ce le trans#orm` antr-o surs` pro%a%il` de contagiune #inanciar`4 Mai r`u' aprecierea spectaculoas` a monedei euro an perioada +,,<F+,,; a ampli#icat lipsa de competitivitate' l`sendu-le anc` ^i mai vulnera%ile la riscul incapacit`_ii de plat` ^i amenin_end s`-i ampov`reze pe mem%rii mai %oga_i ^i mai s`n`to^i #inanciar ai Uniunii Europene4 .^a ceva n-ar #i tre%uit s` se antemple4 Uniunea Monetar` European` era destinat` s` aduc` sta%ilitate ^i unitate an Europa4 Cend statele mem%re au aderat la uniunea monetar`' i-au cedat 6`ncii Centrale Europene dreptul de control asupra politicii monetareA de asemenea' au aderat la Pactul de (ta%ilitate ^i Cre^tere' care a impus restric_ii asupra m`rimii de#icitelor lor #iscale4 dn teorie' calitatea de state-mem%re urma s` determine aceste _`ri s` antreprind` re#orme structurale ^i s` #or_eze o convergen_` a per#orman_ei economice an rendul tuturor acestor state4 Dar s-a antemplat pe dos4 $ermania ^i alte ceteva _`ri au muncit un deceniu s`-^i reduc` dezechili%rele #iscale ^i s`8^i am%un`t`_easc` nivelul competitivit`_ii' prin restructurarea sectorului corporatist4 Dar an Italia' (pania' $recia ^i Portugalia a avut loc exact contrariul" dezechili%rele #iscale au r`mas mari ^i costurile cu #or_a de munc` au crescut mai repede decet productivitatea4 Drept urmare' acum avem dou` Europe' an loc de una singur`4 .l_i #actori au agravat divergen_a4 Mo%ilitatea #or_ei de munc` din interiorul uniunii r`mene modest`' c`ci di#eren_ele de lim%` ^i cultur` restreng migra_ia4 Prin urmare' o cre^tere a ^omaGul la peri#eria Uniunii nu8i va determina pe lucr`tori s` migreze spre regiunile mai prospere' la #el de mult pe cet ar #ace8o' pro%a%il' dac` n8ar exista aceast` limitare4 dn consecin_`' pie_ele muncii din Uniunea European` sunt mult mai pu_in #lexi%ile decet cele din (tatele Unite4 Tot atet de angriGor`tor' na_iunile individuale din UE nu8^i ampart antre ele povara #iscal` a guvern`rii' a^a cum se antempl` cu statele din #edera_ia american`4 -aptul c` politica #iscal` este l`sat` la latitudinea #iec`rei _`ri an parte limiteaz` gradul an care o na_iune o poate aGuta pe alta4 Dac` aceste divergen_e economice persist` ^i se adencesc' e posi%il ca Uniunea Monetar` European` s` se rup`4 De exemplu' s` zicem c` $recia recurge la inginerii #inanciare ^i scamatorii #iscale ca s`8^i rezolve pro%lemele4 Dac` va continua s` #ac` acest lucru' $recia ar putea pierde accesul la pie_ele de andatorare la un moment dat an +,:,4 Dup` care va tre%ui s`8^i pun` cenu^` an cap ^i s` cer^easc` amprumuturi directe de la alte state mem%re' de la 6anca Central` European`' de la Comisia European` sau de la -MI4 .ce^ti Guc`tori s8ar putea s` salveze $recia' de dragul supravie_uirii Uniunii

Monetare4 Dar dac` de necazuri similare se molipsesc ^i (pania' Italia' Portugalia sau alte state mem%re' voin_a ^i putin_a 6`ncii Centrale Europene' ^i cu8atet mai pu_in ale contri%ua%ililor #rancezi ^i germani' de a scoate din di#icultate alte state mem%re vor aGunge la cap`tul r`%d`rii4 $recia va tre%ui atunci s` ias` din Uniunea Monetar` ^i s` adopte o nou` moned`' devalorizat`' cum ar #i drahma' pentru a anlocui moneda euro4 .cest scenariu dual F incapacitate de plat` ^i devalorizare F ar putea avea ni^te consecin_e angrozitoare4 Prin adoptarea unei drahme devalorizate' $recia nu va avea ancotro ^i va tre%ui s` re#uze la plat` datoriile pu%lice F ^i' #oarte pro%a%il' private F denominate an euro4 Ceva asem`n`tor s8a antemplat cu .rgentina an +,,:4 Ie^irea acestei _`ri dintr8un consiliu monetar ^i o devalorizare %rutal` a pesoului au dus la nerespectarea angaGamentelor asupra unui volum masiv de datorii pu%lice ^i private exprimate an dolari americani4 De asemenea' datoria intern` denominat` an dolari a #ost convertit` #or_at an pasive cu valoarea exprimat` an peso argentinieni' deci mult mai sc`zut` F proces c`ruia i s8a spus cpesi#icare 4> La #el' o devalorizare an tandem cu incapacitatea de plat`' pentru $recia sau Italia' ar conduce la o cdrahmatizare sau cliralizare a pasivelor an euro emise an plan intern' provocendu8le pagu%e imense tuturor celor care de_in aceste crean_e' an maGoritate alte %`nci europene4 2icio uniune monetar` n8a reu^it s` supravie_uiasc` vreodat`' #`r` a exista ^i o uniune #iscal` ^i politic`4 Dac` e s` ai%` loc asemenea incapacit`_i de plat` a datoriilor ^i devaloriz`ri' contrastul din /ona Euro ^i (tatele Unite va deveni anc` ^i mai #lagrant4 Cali#ornia ^i multe alte state americane se con#runt` cu crize %ugetare' dar o andelungat` ^i puternic` tradi_ie de #ederalism #iscal F precum ^i prevederile din codul #alimentului F #ac posi%il` solu_ionarea cetorva dintre aceste pro%leme locale la un nivel na_ional4 /onei Euro ai lipsesc ast#el de mecanisme pentru amp`r_irea an comun a poverii4 O rupere a Uniunii Monetare ar putea duce chiar la o distrugere par_ial` a Uniunii Europene anse^i4 Orice na_iune mem%r` care iese din Uniunea Monetar` ^i nu a^i onoreaz` angaGamentele de plat` a datoriilor sale de_inute de alte na_iuni mem%re' poate #i expulzat` din UE4 .ceast` soart`' de neimaginat an urm` cu ce_iva ani' a devenit o posi%ilitate #oarte real` pentru autorit`_ile de la .tena' de la Roma' de la Madrid ^i de la Lisa%ona4 .ni antregi de divergen_` economic` ^i de erodare a competitivit`_ii economice an aceste _`ri au #`cut ca acest deznod`ment s` #ie mult mai pro%a%il acum decet oricend altcendva4 1aponia' ancotroH 1aponia e antr8o situa_ie tot atet de grea ca ^i /ona Euro4 .^a cum am v`zut' explozia %alonului s`u speculativ' imo%iliar ^i al capitalului an ac_iuni' de la anceputul anilor :;;,' a dus la un Deceniu Pierdut' de stagnare economic` F

punctat de patru recesiuni F ^i' an plus' serioas` de#la_ie4 Dup` dezum#larea %alonului' 1aponia a comis multe gre^eli an materie de politic` de ac_iune" a adoptat prea terziu relaxarea monetar` ^i stimularea #iscal`' dup` care le8a p`r`sit prea devreme4 . _inut an via_` prea mult` vreme %`ncile zom%i' trecend la recapitalizare a%ia spre #inele deceniului4 O recesiune cu mini8me du%le an anul +,,, n8a #`cut decet s` exacer%eze pro%lemele gemene ale de#la_iei ^i stagn`rii4 1aponia a revenit la o cre^tere poten_ial` de + la sut` a%ia dup` +,,>4 Pe parcursul recentei crize' contrac_ia a #ost mai sever` an 1aponia decet an (tatele Unite' an ciuda #aptului c` maGoritatea institu_iilor %ancare Gaponeze nu erau decet #oarte pu_in expuse la ipoteci toxice sau produse #inanciare structurate4 1aponia s8a dovedit totu^i vulnera%il`' din pricina dependen_ei sale masive de comer_ul exterior' care la rendul s`u depindea de un *en sla%4 Cend cre^terea glo%al` ^i comer_ul interna_ional s8au pr`%u^it' an +,,<8+,,;' exporturile au c`zut ^i ele4 .ctivitatea de carr* trade pe *en s8a dat peste cap' ampingend *enul s` se aprecieze4 De atunci ancoace' redresarea a #ost an cel mai %un caz anemic`4 1aponia are an #a_` o sumedenie de pro%leme pe termen lung4 Popula_ia am%`trenit`' pe de o parte' ^i reticen_a #a_` de primirea imigran_ilor' pe de alta' i8au prins antr8un cle^te demogra#ic economia' ancetinindu8i ritmul de cre^tere4 Un sector al serviciilor ine#icient' destul de osi#icat' cu o productivitate sc`zut`' s8a dovedit rezistent la schim%are' ca ^i rigidele conven_ii economice ^i sociale' cum ar #i p`strarea aceluia^i loc de munc` pentru toat` via_a4 (istemul politic este ^i el tot atet de rigid' near`tend niciun #el de voin_` an a introduce re#ormele structurale necesare pentru eli%erarea din aceste constrengeri4 Pozi_ia a doua din lume an clasamentul celor mai mari economii' de_inut` de 1aponia' se clatin` serios" China e suscepti%il` s8o detroneze an anii care vin4 bi mai angriGor`tor' de#icitele pu%lice mari ale 1aponiei' cre^terea de%il` ^i de#la_ia persistent` indic` o posi%il` criz` #iscal`4 Deocamdat`' aceast` situa_ie #atidic` a #ost evitat`' gra_ie an parte ratelor analte ale economisirii private4 dn plus' excedentele mari de cont curent ale 1aponiei au #`cut ca atet sectorul privat' cet ^i %anca central` s` acumuleze active str`ine' asigurend o rezerv`8tampon de economisiri care ar putea #i #olosit` pen` la urm` pentru achitarea serviciului datoriei interne' a#lat` an cre^tere4 Din acest motiv' guvernul 1aponiei se poate an continuare amprumuta la rate ale do%enzii relativ sc`zute' cu toate c` an prezent poart` povara unei datorii pu%lice %rute echivalente cu aproape +,, la sut` din PI64B Totu^i' an cadrul crizei recente' economisirile popula_iei au sc`zut puternic' c`ci gospod`riile cu venituri diminuate au #ost o%ligate s` cheltuiasc` mai mult' ca s`8^i men_in` standardul de via_`A pen` ^i excedentul de cont curent s8a mic^orat' pe m`sur` ce de#icitele %ugetare an cre^tere ^i economisirile private an sc`dere au cople^it ritmul de sc`dere al investi_iilor private4 Dac` aceste tendin_e continu`'

1aponia risc` s` se andrepte cu capul anainte c`tre o criz` #iscal`' c`ci continuarea de#la_iei' cre^terea anemic`' explozia de#icitelor ^i un *en puternic conspir` laolalt` pentru a eroda ancrederea an economia Gaponez`4 De #apt' unele agen_ii de rating au pus deGa 1aponia pe lista de o%serva_ie pentru o posi%il` diminuare a cali#icativului de _ar`4 Dac` popula_ia Gaponez` a^i pierde ancrederea an capacitatea guvernului s`u de a rezolva pro%lema de#icitului ^i a datoriei pu%lice' atunci s8ar putea s` se de%araseze de activele autohtone Jancepend cu o%liga_iunile de stat ale 1aponieiK ^i s` se antoarc` la opera_iuni speculative carr* trade' ampingend %rutal an Gos valoarea *enului ^i expediind an sus randamentele o%liga_iunilor guvernamentale pe termen lung4 .cest lucru ar putea declan^a an #inal o criz` a datoriei pu%lice4 Din ne#ericire' capacitatea sistemului politic Gaponez de a pune an act genul de aGust`ri #iscale ^i de re#orme structurale necesare pentru redresarea situa_iei' este limitat`4 dn anul +,,;' Partidul Democrat 1aponez JPD1K' din opozi_ie' a reu^it an s#er^it s` detroneze atotputernicul Partid Li%eral8Democrat JPLDK' care practic de_inea de peste cincizeci de ani monopolul puterii politice4 .ceast` schim%are p`rea s` sugereze c` 1aponia s8ar putea s` se a#le pe calea re#ormei' dar evenimentele ulterioare au dat curend de an_eles c` lucrurile nu st`teau chiar a^a4 Preluendu8^i #unc_ia de premier' noul lider al PD1' )u0io 9ato*ama' a #`cut promisiuni am%i_ioase' dar contradictorii4 Recunoscend explicit constrengerile asupra %ugetului 1aponiei' el ^i partidul s`u au promis s` taie cheltuielile ine#iciente ^i risipa aparatului de stat4 dn acela^i timp' 9ato*ama a #`cut apel la construirea unei ceconomii a poporului '@ care se %azeaz` pe su%ven_ii importante din partea statului' precum ^i pe un %uget care necesit` amprumuturi record4 2u mai pu_in angriGor`tor' premierul Gaponez a anun_at apoi planuri de stopare a privatiz`rii 1apan Post 6an04 .ceast` antreprindere enorm`' care de_ine active de peste 7 trilioane de dolari' a aGutat de decenii la #inan_area cheltuielilor statului' iar din ini_iativa anun_at` reiese limpede c` 9ato*ama are an gend con8 tinuarea tradi_iei4 E #oarte pu_in pro%a%il ca aceste politici s` creasc` datoria ^i s` men_in` cre^terea la niveluri su% cele normale4 Din p`cate' pu_ine sunt #renele politice care l8ar putea opri pe 9ato*ama din urm`rirea acestor _eluri" an ultimii ani' PD1 ^i8a #`urit o puternic` maGoritate monopartit` an camera in#erioar` a parlamentului Gaponez' unindu8^i #or_ele cu partenerii de coali_ie pentru a domina ^i an camera superioar`4 De asemenea' 9ato*ama are de an#runtat anc` ^i mai pu_ine o%stacole institu_ionale' analoge tacticilor de prelungire la nes#er^it a discu_iilor parlamentare din sistemul american' an demersul s`u de #ixare ^i de promovare a unei agende politice4 dn acela^i timp' 9ato*ama este pu_in pro%a%il s` re#ormeze ansam%lul economiei4 .nterior accederii la putere a PD18ului' reprezentan_ii de #runte ai lumii a#acerilor

cola%orau cu o elit` %irocratic` dominat` de PLD' an #ormularea legisla_iei4 6rusc' elita economic` s8a trezit c` nu mai are de8a #ace cu un sistem unipartid' ci cu unul apartidA antr8adev`r' noua coali_ie conduc`toare are mult mai pu_ine conexiuni an lumea a#acerilor4 .ceasta anseamn` c` are mai pu_ine oportunit`_i pentru genul de compromisuri necesare an a se realiza re#ormele structurale apte s` asigure o cre^tere superioar` an anii ce vin4 Ceea ce poate aduce pen` la urm` 1aponia antr8o situa_ie #oarte periculoas`' pe m`sur` ce explozia de#icitelor ^i o economie sclerozat` provoac` inimagina%ilul" o criz` a datoriei na_ionale sau o iz%ucnire a in#la_iei ^i o c`dere decisiv` de pe soclu' pentru o _ar` considerat` alt`dat` per#ect apt` s` domine economia mondial`4 6ICH 6RICH Oripoate 6RICCH Pe hertie' maGoritatea economiilor emergente se pot a^tepta' an mod rezona%il' la ni^te rate ro%uste ale cre^terii pe termen mediu" antre B ^i < la sut`' an #unc_ie de _ar`4= .ceast` rat` e mult peste cele +87 procente la care se a^teapt` maGoritatea economiilor avansate an anii care vin4 -or_a lor are mare leg`tur` cu avantaGele pe care le8au avut la intrarea an recenta criz`4 Excep_ie #`cend unele p`r_i din Europa Central` ^i de Est' pie_elor emergente le8a lipsit elementul supraandator`rii' an sectorul #inanciar ^i an cel al gospod`riilor' care a devenit c`lceiul lui .hile pentru multe economii avansate4 Mai mult decet atet' #iindc` anduraser` crize #inanciare an deceniile anterioare' aceste _`ri ^i8au asanat sistemele #inanciare' au aplicat politici #iscale s`n`toase ^i ^i8au izolat cu griG` %`ncile centrale de imixtiunea politicului' ast#el ancet s` poat` asigura mai %ine sta%ilitatea pre_urilor4 .ceste puncte tari ^i lec_ii %ine anv`_ate le8au dat economiilor emergente putin_a s` ias` te#ere din criz`4 Ele ^i8au implementat politici monetare ^i #iscale e#icace pentru restaurarea cererii ^i a cre^terii' preg`tindu8se ast#el pentru o redresare rapid`4 De #apt' cele mai multe dintre ele vor cre^te an pas vioi' dac` se _in de re#ormele ^i politicile orientate spre pia_` pe care le8au adoptat anainte de criz`4 .cesta este scenariul cel mai optimist4 Dar tre%uie s` avem an vedere ceteva avertismente4 dn primul rend' aceste economii nu sunt independente din punct de vedere economic' avend leg`turi extensive' de comer_ exterior ^i #inanciare' cu alte economii mai avansate' care nu le permit s` se decupleze complet de pro%lemele acestora din urm`4 O redresare anemic` an (tatele Unite va ac_iona deci an mod inevita%il ca o #ren`' chiar ^i asupra celor mai dinamice pie_e emergente4 Economiile emergente num`r` zeci de na_iuni4 $rupul 6RIC F 6razilia' India' Rusia ^i China F este cel mai mare din aceast` mul_ime' iar China ai este regina necontestat`4 China se con#runt` ans` cu ni^te provoc`ri serioase4 De^i a trecut cu %ine prin criz`' mult prea e#icacele m`suri pe care le8a implementat s8ar putea

s`8i aduc` necazuri pe termen scurt4< De exemplu' China a reac_ionat la criz` cu o cre^tere a creditului diriGat de stat4 6`ncile a#late an proprietatea statului au primit ordin s` #urnizeze linii de credit ^i amprumuturi masive antreprinderilor de stat' pentru a le determina s` angaGeze mai mul_i lucr`tori' s` produc` mai multe %unuri' s`8^i #ac` stocuri mai mari de m`r#uri ^i s`8^i maGoreze capacitatea4 -iecare provincie a _`rii a^i andeamn` acum %`ncile s` crediteze #`r` socoteal` companiile de_inute de stat' pentru a8^i spori produc_ia de o_el' ciment' aluminiu' automo%ile ^i alte %unuri ale industriei grele4 2umai c` statul chinez are deGa o supraa%unden_` de capacitate an aceste domenii4 $ra_ie acestui %oom al investi_iilor pu%lice ^i private' China %ene#iciaz` acum de o in#rastructur` care8i dep`^e^te gradul de dezvoltare" are o gr`mad` de aeroporturi noi' dar care stau goale' precum ^i ^osele ^i autostr`zi cu #oarte pu_ine ma^ini4 De asemenea' asist` la o cre^tere demen_ial` a dezvolt`rilor imo%iliare' care va conduce inevita%il la o supraa%unden_` de imo%ile reziden_iale ^i comerciale4 Chiar dac` ur%anizarea ^i cre^terea economic` vor pune an cele din urm` la trea%` cu #olos aceste am%un`t`_iri de in#rastructur` ^i propriet`_i imo8 %iliare' o#erta ancepe s` dep`^easc` mult cererea4 Din p`cate' unele dintre aceste distorsiuni sunt o consecin_` a #aptului c` pre_urile terenurilor nu se sta%ilesc an mod adecvat' la un nivel dictat de pia_`A statul continu` s` controleze o#erta4 Parte din creditul care inund` acum economia chinez` se andreapt` spre alte antre%uin_`ri' tot atet de neproductive' printre care achizi_ii speculative' prin supraandatorare' de m`r#uri' ac_iuni ^i active imo%iliare4 Ceea ce are poten_ialul de8a se trans#orma antr8un %alon periculos' ducend an cele din urm` la o semni#icativ` corec_ie an Gos a pre_urilor pentru active4 .utorit`_ile a^i dau seama de aceast` posi%ilitate' iar pre_urile an cre^tere pentru energie' alimente ^i propriet`_i imo%iliare le8au determinat s` contracte o#erta monetar` ^i de credit' an speran_a de8a aGunge la o aterizare lin`4 China ocup` o pozi_ie paradoxal`' an anul +,:,4 De^i programele de stimulare economic` instituite an anul precedent au ampins cre^terea anapoi spre nivelul de ; la sut`' economia _`rii n8a reu^it anc` s` #ac` pasul necesar dinspre un accent pe exporturi' spre %izuiala pe consumul privat4 dn China' consumul r`mene %locat la un meschin 7@ la sut` din PI6 F comparativ cu cele =, de procente din PI6 ale (tatelor Unite4 Indu%ita%il c` exist` o aurit` cale de miGloc antre aceste dou` ci#re' dar deocamdat` China nu s8a o%osit prea tare s` se apropie de ea4 .lte pro%leme se poate s` dea mari %`t`i de cap Chinei an anii care vin4 fara ans`^i cre^te an dou` ritmuri di#erite" zonele ur%ane de coast` care depind de exporturi avanseaz` mai repede decet zonele rurale din partea central` ^i din cea vestic`4 Mai mult decet atet' cre^terea economic` din toate regiunile a #ost urm`rit` prin nesocotirea #`r` nicio chi%zuin_` a mediului natural' ducend la o poluare care des#igureaz` peisaGul ^i provoac` pro%leme de s`n`tate deloc

negliGa%ile pentru milioane de chinezi4 dn s#er^it' sistemul politic autoritarist' care pare s` #ie incapa%il s` tolereze orice #el de opozi_ie' precum ^i neastemp`rul crescend din rendul minorit`_ilor etnice' s8ar putea s` anghesuie nori negri la orizont4 Celelalte state mem%re ale elitei 6RIC se con#runt` cu un set di#erit de provoc`ri4 dn compara_ie cu China' India are o democra_ie plin` de ansu#le_ire' un stat de drept mai puternic ^i o atitudine mai Gust` an ce prive^te proteGarea drepturilor de proprietate4 Dar democra_ia are ^i %une' ^i rele" sl`%iciunea coali_iilor de guvernare din India a ancetinit ritmul necesarelor re#orme economice structurale4 Printre acestea se num`r` reducerea de#icitelor %ugetare de la nivelul central ^i de la cel al statelor componente' diminuarea cheltuielilor guvernamentale ine#iciente ^i re#ormarea sistemului de taxe ^i impozite4 bi alte re#orme li%erale se cer instituite4 Interven_ia statului an economie tre%uie s` #ie restrens`A la%irintul %irocratic al hertiilor ^i aparatul #unc_ion`resc peste m`sur` de um#lat tre%uie mult reduse4 Pie_ele muncii r`men prea rigide ^i tre%uie s` #ie li%eralizateA la #el ar tre%ui s` se antemple ^i cu comer_ul exterior ^i cu restric_iile privind investi_iile str`ine directe4 (piritul antreprinz`tor tre%uie s` primeasc` mai mult` ancuraGare' ca ^i investi_ia an capital uman ^i an programe de cali#icare4 De^i India a #`cut unele progrese pe aceste #ronturi' riscul ca re#ormele s` ai%` loc prea ancet n8a disp`rut' ampli#icend decalaGul dintre iepurele chinezesc ^i _estoasa indian`4 (itua_ia 6raziliei este ^i ea di#erit`4 .ici avem de8a #ace cu o economie dinamic`' avend o gr`mad` de resurse naturale' un sistem #inanciar so#isticat ^i un sector de produc_ie avansat' care ar putea sus_ine un ritm ro%ust de cre^tere vreme andelungat`4 Dar chiar ^i an cele mai #avora%ile perioade dintre toate F anii dintre +,,> ^i +,,=' cend media cre^terii din celelalte _`ri 6RIC a dep`^it < ^i chiar :, la sut` F' rata de cre^tere %razilian` a r`mas mult an urm`' su% > la sut`4 .dministra_ia lui Luiz Ingcio Lula da (ilva merit` s` #ie creditat` cu aplicarea unor politici macroeconomice solide F un de#icit %ugetar sc`zut ^i o %anc` central` independent`' hot`ret` s` men_in` un nivel sc`zut al in#la_iei F' dar mai sunt anc` multe de #`cut4 Pentru a aduce rata de cre^tere peste @ la sut`' viitorul pre^edinte va tre%ui s` g`seasc` o solu_ie la lipsa #ondurilor pentru plata pensiilorA s` reduc` cheltuielile guvernamentale ^i taxele care pot preGudicia enorm luarea deciziilor economiceA s` stimuleze cre^terea cali#ic`rii #or_ei de munc`' prin investi_ii an educa_ie ^i #ormare pro#esional`A s` am%un`t`_easc` ^i s` extind` in#rastructurile prin proiecte de parteneriat antre sectorul pu%lic ^i cel privat F an paralel cu p`strarea unor politici sociale progresiste care s` reduc` treptat inegalit`_ile de avere ^i venit4 Recenta criz` economic` a expus un posi%il impostor' an cadrul grupului 6RIC4

(l`%iciunea economiei Rusiei F an particular' gradul analt de supraandatorare al %`ncilor ^i corpora_iilor ei F a #ost o vreme mascat` de mana cereasc` a cre^terii pre_urilor la petrol ^i gaze naturale4 Dup` ce a crescut cu < la sut` an +,,<' economia Rusiei s8a contractat cu un la #el de aiuritor < la sut`' an anul urm`tor4 dn #apt' economia Rusiei const` dintr8un singur sector oarecum s`n`tos F petrol ^i gaze F care #luctueaz` odat` cu pre_ul acestor resurse4 Ea tre%uie s` se diversi#ice' dar pentru aceasta ar #i nevoie de privatizarea antreprinderilor a#late an proprie8 tatea statului' de li%eralizarea economiei' de o reducere a scriptologiei care angreuneaz` enorm an#iin_area societ`_ilor comerciale' ^i de m`suri energice de com%atere a corup_iei tentaculare din sectorul privat4 Chiar ^i sectorul energiei tre%uie s` #ie li%eralizat4 Din ne#ericire' investitorii str`ini r`men reticen_i #a_` de ideea de8a %`ga %ani an ni^te miGloace de produc_ie care risc` an #inal s` #ie expropriate sau na_ionalizate4 Rusia are destule alte pro%leme care ar tre%ui s8o descali#ice din cliga 6RIC 4 In#rastructura sa este veche ^i p`r`ginit`' iar sistemul politic' dis#unc_ional ^i corupt4 Popula_ia sa se mic^oreaz` rapid' iar pro%lemele grave de s`n`tate F alcoolismul #iind primul care8_i vine an minte cend e vor%a de Rusia F au ampins an Gos speran_a de via_`' la ni^te niveluri angriGor`toare4 De^i Rusia continu` s` de_in` cel mai mare arsenal nuclear din lume ^i continu` s` ai%` un loc permanent an Consiliul de (ecuritate al O2U' ar merita s` #ie a^ezat` cmai mult an dric' decet an 6RIC 4 De #apt' alte ceteva _`ri ar #i pro%a%il mai andrept`_ite s` pretind` un loc an 6RIC' chiar dac` aceasta ar ansemna s` mai ad`ug`m ceteva litere la acest acronim4 Dat #iind poten_ialul de care dispune' exist` argumente mult mai puternice pentru includerea Coreei de (ud an clu%ul 6RIC F sau 6RICC' dac` vre_i4 Coreea de (ud este o putere economic` so#isticat` ^i analt tehnologizat`" inovatoare' dinamic` ^i c`min al unei #or_e de munc` %ine cali#icat`4 Unica sa mare pro%lem` este pericolul ca csora ei din miaz`noapte' Coreea de 2ord' s` se pr`%u^easc` ^i s8o inunde cu re#ugia_i #l`menzi4 Turcia ar merita ^i ea s` #ie cuprins` an cercul interior4 .ceast` _ar` are un sector %ancar ro%ust' o pia_` intern` an#loritoare ^i o popula_ie numeroas`' care continu` s` creasc`' un sector antreprinz`tor cu mult` glagore ^i un avantaG comparativ an produc_ia cu consum intensiv de munc`4 Leg`turile sale se antind spre Europa Jcerere de aderare la 2.TO ^i de intrare an UEK' dar ^i spre Orientul MiGlociu ^i spre .sia Central`4 Posi%il ca Indonezia s` #ie cel mai vaGnic candidat din tot plutonul4 Cel mai mare stat musulman din lume se poate l`uda cu o clas` miGlocie an expansiune rapid`' cu un climat politic sta%il ^i tot mai democratic ^i cu o economie care a eclipsat mare parte din .sia' an ciuda pagu%elor produse de recesiunea glo%al`4 Din punctul de vedere al (tatelor Unite' Indonezia prezint` o alternativ` mai degra%`

atr`g`toare la Rusia' care se ia din ce an ce la antrecere cu Penezuela cine s` strige mai tare c` c.merica e an declin 4 Indonezia a dat dovad` de rezilien_` nu doar ca economie' ci ^i ca na_iune4 .re o popula_ie extraordinar de divers` ^i de larg r`spendit` geogra#ic' tr`s`turi care s8ar putea s` ridice du%ii asupra capacit`_ii sale de a parcurge tranzi_ia c`tre o economie de clas` mondial`4 bi totu^i' _ara a l`sat an urm` greaua mo^tenire a unei dictaturi militare' reu^ind s` dep`^easc` o mul_ime de piedici care i8au r`s`rit an cale4 De^i criza #inanciar` asiatic` din :;;=' tsunamiul din +,,> ^i apari_ia radicalilor islamici i8au provocat cu toatele mari pagu%e' Indonezia continu` s` se mi^te anainte antr8un ritm remarca%il4 Cu toate c` PI68ul pe cap de locuitor al Indoneziei r`mene sc`zut an compara_ie cu cel al altor _`ri aspirante la statutul 6RIC' poten_ialul de care dispune este impresionant4 .ceast` _ar` depinde mult mai pu_in de exporturi decet suratele sale asiatice Jiar decet Rusia' ce s` mai vor%im]K' iar pie_ele sale de cherestea' ulei de palmier' c`r%une ^i alte active au atras importante investi_ii str`ine4 $uvernul de la 1a0arta' an paralel' a luat #erm taurul de coarne ampotriva corup_iei ^i s8a mi^cat %ine an privin_a atac`rii pro%lemelor structurale4 Pen` ^i tendin_ele demogra#ice #avorizeaz` Indonezia' care' cu +7, de milioane de locuitori' ocup` deGa al patrulea loc an lume dup` popula_ie' cet $ermania ^i Rusia la un loc4 Toat` tevatura care se #ace pe seama 6RIC8urilor F sau a 6IIC8urilor ori 6ICC8urilor F re#lect` o tendin_` important` pe termen lung" ascensiunea unei diversit`_i mai mari de economii de pia_` emergente care posed` putere economic`' #inanciar` ^i comercial`4 Cu ce_iva ani an urm`' La3rence (ummers a#irma c` integrarea Chinei ^i a Indiei an economia glo%al` F cu aproape +'+ miliarde de cchindieni al`turendu8se #or_ei de munc` a lumii ^i pie_elor mondiale F este cel mai semni#icativ eveniment din ultimul mileniu de istorie a omenirii' dup` Rena^terea italian` ^i Revolu_ia industrial`4 Cum se va des#`^ura mai departe aceast` pies`' r`mene de v`zut4 China' India ^i celelalte economii emergente din #runtea plutonului se con#runt` toate cu partea lor de di#icult`_i ^i vor #i nevoite s` aplice ni^te re#orme #oarte speci#ice pentru a intra an etapa urm`toare4 Dar' dup` toate pro%a%ilit`_ile' maGoritatea vor s#er^i prin a Guca un rol tot mai ansemnat an economia glo%al`' an anii care vin4 Un nou %alonH Din martie +,,; ancoace' o serie antreag` de active glo%ale riscante au trecut printr8un proces masiv de resta%ilire a cursului4 Pie_ele de ac_iuni s8au anviorat an (tatele UniteA pre_urile energiei ^i materiilor prime au anceput s`8^i reia urcu^ulA iar ac_iunile' o%liga_iunile ^i valutele de pe pie_ele emergente au _e^nit spre cer4 Pe m`sur` ce8^i recap`t` apetitul pentru risc' investitorii se andep`rteaz` de o%liga_iunile americane ^i de dolar' ceea ce a trimis do%enzile acestor titluri u^or an sus' iar valoarea dolarului' an Gos4

Cu toate c` aceast` redresare a pre_urilor activelor are an parte ca motor ni^te principii #undamentale mai %une pentru activitatea economic` ^i cea #inanciar`' pre_urile s8au dus an sus prea repede ^i prea devreme4 De ceH Cel mai evident motiv ar #i acela c` %`ncile centrale ale economiilor avansate au #olosit un nivel extrem de sc`zut al do%enzii' ampreun` cu relaxarea cantitativ`' pentru a crea un czid de lichiditate ' care a reu^it s` surmonteze czidul de angriGorare l`sat an urm` de criz`4 bi acest lucru aGut` la alimentarea unei remont`ri masive a activelor riscante4 Dar mai este ceva care a_e_` #ocul su% cazanul acestui %alon glo%al al activelor" specula_iile carr* trade pe dolar4 dntr8o opera_iune de carr* trade' investitorii se amprumut` antr8o anumit` moned` ^i o investesc an alte locuri' unde va aduce un randament mai ridicat4 Din pricina do%enzilor care se apropie de zero din (tatele Unite' investitorii pot s` ia cu amprumut dolari ^i s`8i %age an cete active riscante doresc' de pe tot mapamondul4 Pe m`sur` ce pre_urile acestor active urc`' investitorii o%_in un pro#it #rumu^el' pe care8l pot #olosi apoi ca s` ram%urseze acei dolari amprumuta_i ^i care an acest moment s8au depreciat' ceea ce #ace anc` ^i mai #acil` returnarea amprumutului4 dn practic`' aceasta anseamn` c` investitorii nici m`car nu se amprumut` cu do%end` zero' ci cu do%end` negativ`' de minus :, sau +, la sut`' an #unc_ie de cet de mult se depreciaz` dolarul4 dntr8un asemenea climat' e #loare la ureche s` #aci pro#it" antre B, ^i =, la sut` din martie +,,; ancoace4 -`r` s` vrea' -ed a antre_inut acest Goc4 Cump`rend o gam` antreag` de active din diverse clase F o%liga_iuni de stat americane' titluri ipotecare' datoriile girate de -annie Mae ^i -reddie mac F' -ed a redus volatilitatea de pe pie_e4 Ceea ce nu poate decet s` #ac` specula_iile carr* trade anc` ^i mai ispititoare' adormindu8le oamenilor teama de risc ^i atr`gend tot mai mul_i investitori antr8un %alon4 .ceste m`suri' cend sunt com%inate cu politica -ed8ului de men_inere a ratelor do%enzii c`tre zero' au #`cut ca lumea s` devin` teren sigur pentru cmama tuturor specula_iilor pe di#eren_a de do%end` dintre dou` monede ; ^i cmama tuturor %aloanelor pe active 4 (l`%iciunea tot mai accentuat` a dolarului le8a pus antr8o postur` di#icil` pe %`ncile centrale din .sia ^i din .merica Latin`4 Dac` ele nu intervin pe pie_ele valutare' monedele lor se vor aprecia an raport cu dolarul' ceea ce va #ace ^i mai atr`g`toare amprumutarea an dolari4 Dac` intervin' ca s` ampiedice aceast` apreciere' cump`rend valute str`ine' inclusiv dolari' rezervele lor de devize pot #oarte u^or s` um#le ni^te %aloane ale activelor an aceste economii4 dn am%ele cazuri' rezultatul este acela^i" un %alon glo%al al activelor' care se dilat` pe zi ce trece4 dn cele din urm`' specula_iile carr* trade se vor anverti an gol4 -ed va pune cap`t programului s`u de cump`rare a activelor' restaurend e#ectiv o oarecare

volatilitate pe pie_eA ^i' la un moment dat' dolarul se va sta%iliza' c`ci nu poate continua s` scad` la in#init4 Odat` dolarul sta%ilizat' costul amprumut`rii an moned` american` nu va mai #i negativ' ci va r`mene doar apropiat de zero4 O veste #oarte proast` pentru cei care au pariat pe declinul an continuare al dolarului ^i care ai va #or_a pe ace^ti speculatori s` se replieze %rusc ^i s`8^i acopere cpozi_iile scurte 4 .cest proces s8ar putea s` #ie deose%it de violent' dac` dolarul ancepe s` se aprecieze rapid4 Oricare dintr8o serie antreag` de #actori l8ar putea ampinge pe o asemenea traiectorie" accentuarea aversiunii investitorilor #a_` de risc sau con8 #runt`ri militare sau alte tensiuni geopolitice ar putea s`8i sperie %rusc pe investitori' declan^end o #ug` spre re#ugii mai sigure4 Indi#erent de motiv' dac` dolarul se apreciaz` cu iu_eal` F a^a cum a p`_it8o *enul' cend specula_iile carr* trade pe moneda Gaponez` s8au pr`%u^it F' va rezulta o am%ulzeal` ne%un` spre ie^ire4 Investitorii care ^i8au deschis pozi_ii lungi cu active glo%ale riscante ^i s8au amprumutat pe termen scurt an dolari' vor schim%a dintr8o dat` macazul4 Moment an care %alonul se va sparge4 .ceast` destr`mare s8ar putea s` nu ai%` loc imediat4 /idul de lichiditate creat de -ed ^i suprimarea volatilit`_ii pot l`sa Gocul s` mai mearg` anainte o vreme4 Dar aceasta anseamn` c` %alonul activelor nu poate decet s` se dilate tot mai mult' pre8g`tind terenul pentru o dezintegrare an#ior`toare4 2eplata datoriilor Pen` de #oarte curend' ideea c` o economie avansat` ar putea s` nu8^i pl`teasc` datoria na_ional` extern` ar #i p`rut o %izarerie4 Pie_ele emergente erau cele care nu8^i puteau onora angaGamentele4 2umai an ultimul deceniu' Rusia' .rgentina ^i Ecuador s8au declarat an situa_ie de neplat` a datoriei pu%lice' an timp ce Pa0istanul' Ucraina ^i Urugua*ul au #ost cet pe ce4 .cesta a #ost tiparul dup` care s8au des#`^urat lucrurile de8a lungul secolelor" economiilor an curs de #ormare li se antempl` din cend an cend s` nu8^i achite o%liga_iile' dup` care' pen` la urm`' ctrec clasa ' c`tre un loc mai respecta%il ^i mai de ancredere an cadrul economiei glo%ale4 (e pare c` am parcurs un ciclu complet' din acest punct de vedere' antorcendu8ne de unde am pornit4 dn ultimii ani' cu doar ceteva excep_ii din centrul ^i estul Europei' economiile de pia_` emergente ^i8au #`cut ordine an casa #iscal`4 .menin_area incapacit`_ii de plat` plute^te acum deasupra economiilor avansate4:, dn anul +,,;' agen_iile de rating au retrogradat datoria mai multor _`ri avansate' iar la licita_iile organizate pentru titlurile de de%it ale Marii 6ritanii' $reciei' Irlandei ^i (paniei s8au prezentat mult mai pu_ini cump`r`tori decet se anticipase4 . #ost un mod nu prea amical de a li se aduce aminte economiilor avansate c`' dac` nu ancep s`8^i pun` la rend tre%urile #iscale' agen_iile de rating F ^i' an particular' mult temu_ii cGusti_iari ai o%liga_iunilor h F le vor pune la

respect4 h 6ond vigilantes an lim%a englez`4 Termenul vigilantes se re#er` la cei care iau legea an meini ^i a^i #ac singuri dreptate4 dn contextul #inanciar' este vor%a de investitorii Jmari' desigur' alt#el cine i8ar %`ga an seam`HK care' an semn de protest #a_` de politicile monetare sau #iscale ale guvernului american' a^i vend masiv o%liga_iunile' ampingend ast#el deli%erat an sus do%enda la care se amprumut` guvernul Jn4t4K4 Perspectiva aceasta pune antr8o situa_ie #oarte di#icil` multe economii avansate4 Criza recent` ^i recesiunea care i8a urmat le8au erodat serios pozi_iile #iscale4 Programele de stimulare ^i ancas`rile mai mici din taxe le8au dat o lovitur` grea4 La #el' ^i decizia de8a socializa pierderile din sectorul #inanciar' e#ectiv mutendu8le an spinarea contri%ua%ililor4 Pe parcursul anilor care vin' o redresare de%il` ^i o popula_ie am%`trenit` s8ar putea s` anr`ut`_easc` povara datoriei pentru (tatele Unite' Marea 6ritanie' 1aponia ^i o men` de _`ri din /ona Euro4 Unele _`ri ^i8au luat deGa m`suri de consolidare a pozi_iei #iscale' printre care Islanda' Irlanda ^i Marea 6ritanie' precum ^i (pania' Portugalia ^i' antr8un grad ceva mai redus' $recia4 .ceste m`suri vor #i dureroase pe termen scurt' dar vor #i unicul lucru care poate ampiedica o pierdere a credi%ilit`_ii ^i inevita%ila maGorare %rutal` a costurilor de amprumutare4 Din ne#ericire' oricet de %ine ^i #rumos ar ar`ta an #a_a investitorilor str`ini gestul asan`rii #iscale' an acela^i timp s8ar putea s` sa%oteze o redresare care a%ia ancepe s`8^i antind` aripile4 dn ansam%lu ans`' aceste _`ri au mult mai mult de ce^tigat dac` streng din din_i ^i su#er` acum' decet dac`8^i asum` riscul de8a aGunge la neplata datoriei4 De^i e #oarte pro%a%il ca (tatele Unite ^i 1aponia s` se #ereasc` din calea Gusti_iarilor pie_ei o%liga_iunilor' pentru ceva vreme de8acum anainte' ^i ele s8ar putea s`8^i atrag` antr8o zi #ulgere ^i tr`znete din partea lor4 (tatele Unite continu` s` anregistreze de#icite nevia%ile ale contului curent ^i au o popula_ie am%`trenit` ^i destule cheltuieli neacoperite cu #onduri' pentru %ene#icii de asigur`ri sociale ^i medicale4 1aponia are o popula_ie %`tren` anc` ^i mai numeroas` ^i a adunat deGa datorii ansemnate4 .m%ele _`ri s8ar putea s` se con#runte curend cu du%ii crescende an ce prive^te pozi_ia lor #iscal` F o perspectiv` care prezint` pericole deose%ite pentru (tatele Unite' capa%il` pen` acum s` se amprumute an propria moned`4 Din p`cate' mai are o op_iune' nu #oarte cinstit`4 (tatele Unite Jla #el ca Marea 6ritanie ^i 1aponiaK a^i emit datoria pu%lic` an propria moned`4 .ceasta anseamn` c` .merica nici n8are nevoie s` declare o#icial neplata datoriilor' dac` se dove8 de^te incapa%il` s` maGoreze taxele sau s`8^i taie cheltuielile pu%lice4 dn loc de aceasta' %`ncile centrale pot tip`ri %ancnote noi F sau echivalentul lor digital F ^i s` monetizeze datoria4 Metoda aceasta str`veche ar expedia in#la_ia spre an`l_imi' ^tergend pe Gos cu valoarea real` a datoriei ^i trans#erend avu_ia de la creditori

spre guvern4 De^i a^a8numita tax` pe in#la_ie reu^e^te s` evite o situa_ie clar` de neplat`' rezultatul #inal este acela^i4 Cei care sus_in solu_ia in#la_iei argumenteaz` cum c` ar ampu^ca doi iepuri deodat`4 dn primul rend' ^i cel mai evident' o rat` moderat` a in#la_iei aGut` la erodarea valorii reale a datoriei pu%lice' reducendu8i povara4 dn acela^i timp' rezolv` ^i pro%lema de#la_iei prin datorii' reducend valoarea real` a o%liga_iilor private F a creditelor ipotecare cu do%end` #ix`' de exemplu F ^i' an paralel' sporind valoarea nominal` a locuin_elor ^i a altor active4 .r #i o situa_ie ce^tigFce^tig' cu avantaGe pentru toate p`r_ile implicate" ^i sectorul pu%lic' ^i cel privat' au prileGul s`8^i scuture de pe umeri propriile datorii4 Pare o mi^care de^teapt`' dar nu este4 Dac` in#la_ia ar cre^te de la aproape zero' la nivelurile sc`zute scrise cu o singur` ci#r` F ca s` nu mai vor%im de cele scrise cu dou`] F' %`ncile centrale ar putea pierde controlul asupra a^tept`rilor in#la_ioniste4 Din clipa an care duhul in#la_iei scap` a#ar` din sticl`' e greu de _inut an #reu4 Ocazie cu care %`ncile centrale ^i8ar distruge credi%ilitatea cu mult` sudoare ce^tigat`4 De^i succesul lui Paul Polc0er an com%aterea in#la_iei de la anceputul anilor :;<, con#irm` #aptul c` aceast` credi%ilitate poate #i rece^tigat`' pre_ul va #i unul considera%il" recesiune sever`4 Mai mult decet atet' chiar dac` in#la_ia poate s` reduc` valoarea real` a datoriei nominale la rate #ixe ale do%enzii' mare parte din datoria (tatelor Unite ^i a altor economii avansate const` an o%liga_ii pe termen scurt cu rate varia%ile ale do%enzii4 .cestea cuprind depozite %ancare' credite ipotecare cu do%end` varia%il`' datorie guvernamental` pe termen scurt ^i alte o%liga_ii de plat` pe termen scurt ale gospod`riilor' corpora_iilor ^i institu_iilor #inanciare4 .^tept`rile de cre^tere a in#la_iei ar ansemna c` aceste o%liga_ii vor #i rostogolite la do%enzi mai mari4 Ratele do%enzii vor _ine e#ectiv pasul cu in#la_ia4 dn cazul datoriei pe termen scurt ^i cu do%end` varia%il`' solu_ia in#la_iei n8ar avea niciun e#ect" nu8i po_i p`c`li chiar pe to_i ^i de #iecare dat`4 Inutil s8o mai spunem' ancercarea de8a #olosi in#la_ia pentru a diminua valoarea real` a datoriei pu%lice ^i a celei private incum%` ^i alte riscuri4 Creditorii str`ini ai (tatelor Unite n8ar sta cu menile an sen' gata s` accepte #`r` murmur o reducere puternic` an valoarea real` a activelor lor denominate an dolari' ci s8ar gr`%i s` scape de ele4 dm%ulzeala lor spre ie^ire ar putea duce la colapsul monedei americane' la o cre^tere a%rupt` a ratelor do%enzii pe termen lung ^i la o sever` recesiune cu dou` minime4 (tatele Unite n8ar mai avea capacitatea de %alans care i8a asigurat echili%rul' data trecut` cend s8a pornit uraganul in#la_iei' an anii :;=,4 Pe8atunci' .merica anc` mai anregistra excedente de cont curent4 Ceea ce nu mai este cazul" (tatele Unite au devenit cel mai mare de%itor de pe planet`' datorend restului lumii #antastica sum` de 7 trilioane de dolari] De#icitele sale de cont curent F >,, de miliarde de dolari pe an F sunt de poveste4 bi' pe

m`sur` ce creditorii s`i se uit` cu tot mai mult` me#ien_` la datoria pe termen lung' .merica va tre%ui s` recurg` la amprumuturi pe perioade mai scurte' pentru a8^i #inan_a diversele de#icite4 .cest lucru o #ace ^i mai vulnera%il` la genul de crize care au lovit pie_ele emergente an anii :;;,' sporind pro%a%ilitatea de pr`%u^ire %rusc` a dolarului4 Chinezii ^i ceilal_i creditori ai (tatelor Unite F Rusia' 1aponia' 6razilia ^i exportatorii de petrol din $ol#ul Persic F nu ar accepta o asemenea pierdere asupra activelor lor an dolari4 Ca s` convingem China s` se lase ast#el diGmuit` #inanciar' ar tre%ui s` purt`m ni^te negocieri cel pu_in nepl`cute4 China s8ar putea s` le cear` (tatelor Unite cine ^tie ce #orm` de compensare' cum ar #i s` renun_e la ap`rarea Tai3anului4 .semenea compromisuri ar #i #oarte pro%a%ile' antr8o lume unde marile puteri de pe am%ele p`r_i ale vastelor dezechili%re #inanciare rivalizeaz` pentru pozi_ia de lider geopolitic4 .cest cechili%ru al terorii #inanciare ar p`rea s` scoat` din discu_ie posi%ilitatea stop`rii pur ^i simplu de c`tre China a #inan_`rii de#icitelor de cont curent ^i #iscale ale (tatelor Unite4 Pentru China' varianta de a8^i opri interven_iile pe pie_ele valutare str`ine' ^i cu8atet mai mult de a se descotorosi de activele sale an dolari' ar ansemna s` preGudicieze grav competitivitatea exporturilor chineze^ti4 Dar dac` tensiunile politice se accentueaz`' iar (tatele Unite ancep an mod activ s`8^i devalorizeze propria moned`' China se prea poate s` se scoale ^i s` plece de la mas`' chiar dac` interesele sale ar avea de su#erit pe termen scurt4 .cest deznod`ment este la #el de impro%a%il ca un duel nuclear an toiul R`z%oiului Rece' dar nu este de neconceput4 Date #iind aceste riscuri' autorit`_ile americane nu vor recurge' pro%a%il' la punerea an #unc_iune a tiparni_ei de %ani pentru a rezolva pro%lema datoriei _`rii' chiar dac` tenta_ia de8a #olosi in#la_ia F nu mult' doar un pic F pentru deprecierea datoriei va r`mene puternic`4 Dar guvernan_ii cu minte an cap ^i capul pe umeri s8ar cuveni s` ^tie c` pre_ul ^i pagu%ele colaterale ale unei ast#el de solu_ii ar #i semni#icative' dac` nu de8a dreptul catastro#ale4 Tot ce str`luce^te Pe durata lui +,,;' pre_ul aurului a crescut vioi' re#lectend temerile c` (tatele Unite ar putea s`8^i perverteasc` ^i s`8^i devalorizeze propria moned` an mod inten_ionat' pentru a8^i rezolva pro%lema datoriilor4 dn anul +,,;' pre_urile aurului au spart %ariera miei de dolari ^i au aGuns la nivelul de : +,, de dolari pen` an decem%rie' anainte de8a reancepe s` scad`4 Unii anali^ti cu mor%ul investi_iei an aur prezic c`' an urm`torii ce_iva ani' pre_urile acestui metal ar putea dep`^i nivelul de + ,,, de dolari4 (` #ie posi%il acest lucruH (` #ie recenta maGorare a pre_urilor la aur Gusti#icat` de legit`_ile economice #undamentaleH (au s` #ie dovada #orm`rii unui %alon speculativH De regul`' pre_ul aurului cre^te puternic an una din dou` situa_ii" una' cend

in#la_ia ancepe s` %entuie dezl`n_uit`' moment an care aurul devine un miGloc de acoperire ampotriva in#la_ieiA ^i a doua' cend o cvasidepresiune pare din ce an ce mai pro%a%il` ^i investitorii ancep s` se team` c` nici m`car depozitele lor din %anc` nu vor mai #i an siguran_`4 Istoria ultimilor doi ani se potrive^te am%elor situa_ii4 Mai antei' pre_ul aurului a pornit an sus vizi%il an primele ^ase luni din +,,<' pe m`sur` ce pie_ele emergente au anceput s` se supraanc`lzeasc`' pre_urile m`r#urilor au urcat pen` la cer ^i #rica de in#la_ie pe aceste pie_e s8a ampli#icat4 Pre_urile petrolului au atins niveluri record4 .poi %alonul s8a spart' pre_urile m`r#urilor au sc`zut ^i pre_ul aurului s8a dus ^i el an Gos4 . doua cre^tere %rusc` ^i puternic` a pre_urilor la aur a avut loc an timpul colapsului Lehman 6rothers din +,,<4 .tunci' goana dup` aur n8a avut drept motor temerile in#la_ionisteA realitatea este c` de#la_ia devenise pro%lema' peste tot an lume4 Din clipa an care pr`%u^irea %`ncii Lehman a declan^at un stop cardiac an sistemul #inaciar glo%al' investitorii s8au speriat su#icient de tare an ce prive^te siguran_a activelor lor #inanciare F inclusiv a depozitelor %ancare F' ancet unii dintre ei s` pre#ere securitatea aurului4 $rupul $8= a limitat acea spaim` de depresiune prin garantarea larg` a depozitelor ^i prin cau_ionarea ^i spriGinirea sistemului #inanciar4 Pre_ul aurului a luat8o atunci u^or an Gos' pe m`sur` ce cvasidepresiunea care cuprindea economia glo%al` reducea cererea comercial` ^i industrial` pentru aur' precum ^i cererea consumatorilor pentru aur ca o%iect de lux4 Dar aurul a sprintat din nou' s`rind peste : ,,, de dolari la anceputul prim`verii +,,;' cend temerile privind solven_a sistemului #inanciar din (tatele Unite ^i Europa s8au ante_it iar4 Tot mai mult` lume era angriGorat` c` guvernele nu vor putea s` cau_ioneze antreg sistemul #inanciar F c` ni^te lucruri alt`dat` considerate cprea mari ca s` cad` erau acum cprea mari ca s` #ie salvate 4 dn acel punct' preocuparea crescend` #a_` de un .rmaghedon economic ^i #inanciar a declan^at o alt` explozie a pre_urilor la aur4 2ici n8ar #i cazul s` ne mir`m" cend ancepi s`8_i #aci griGi c` guvernul t`u nu poate garanta an mod credi%il depozitele %ancare' e momentul s`8_i cumperi o pu^c`' ni^te muni_ie' conserve cu mencare ^i lingouri de aur' ^i s`8_i iei picioarele la spinare spre cea mai andep`rtat` ca%an` din creierii mun_ilor' cu speran_a c` vei supravie_ui unei dezintegr`ri mondiale4 Dar panica s8a domolit anc` o dat` F ^i pre_ul aurului a sc`p`tat iar' c`tre s#er^itul prim`verii' pe m`sur` ce m`surile de ac_iune ale guvernan_ilor ^i trecerea gradat` a economiei glo%ale de punctul cel mai co%oret au aGutat la risipirea temerilor4 Tiparul se vede cu ochiul li%er" pre_ul aurului tinde spre maximum ca reac_ie la angriGorarea legat` de in#la_ie sau de o depresiune4 dn amendou` cazurile' aurul reprezint` o acoperire %un` ampotriva

riscului' a evenimentelor de8o periculozitate extrem`' care semnaleaz` un colaps sistemic total4 Cend aceste amenin_`ri a^i pierd intensitatea' pre_urile aurului se angaGeaz` an general pe o pant` lin`' descendent`4 Oare cum ai va merge aurului de8aici anainteH Oricare dintr8un num`r de #or_e al pot ampinge spre pre_uri mai mari' de^i e pu_in pro%a%il s` ating` + ,,, de dolari uncia4 De exemplu' angriGorarea crescend` c` guvernele ar putea ancerca s`8^i monetizeze de#icitele risc` s` a_e_e teama de in#la_ie' trimi_end pre_urile aurului an sus4 La #el' mun_ii de lichiditate care plesc`ie an voie prin sistemul #inanciar ar putea expedia spre an`l_imi pre_urile unei sumedenii de active' inclusiv pe cel al aurului4 dn plus' opera_iunile carr* trade #inan_ate cu dolari au ampins valoarea acestei valute mult an Gos4 Exist` o rela_ie invers propor_ional` antre valoarea relativ` a dolarului ^i pre_ul an dolari al m`r#urilor" cu cet dolarul se d` mai aproape de p`ment' cu atet cresc pre_urile unei game antregi de m`r#uri' inclusiv aurul4 bi al_i #actori pot arunca paie peste #ocul aurului4 6`ncile centrale din India' China ^i alte _`ri ^i8au sporit de_inerile de aur4 Investitorii priva_i c`rora nu le8a disp`rut complet #rica de evenimentele cu pro%a%ilitate sc`zut` F in#la_ie mare sau o nimicitoare recesiune glo%al` cu minime du%le F s8ar putea s` alimenteze ^i ei cererea4 Dat` #iind inelasticitatea o#ertei de aur' %`ncile centrale ^i investitorii priva_i nici nu tre%uie s` opereze decet o mic` deplasare spre aur an porto#oliile lor' ca s`8i maGoreze pre_ul an mod semni#icativ4 Un singur eveniment F o situa_ie de neplat` a datoriei suverane' spre exemplu F poate servi drept catalizator pentru urcarea pre_urilor la aur an zona propice dilat`rii unui %alon speculativ4 .^a8numitul comportament de turm`' ampreun` cu cel de tranzac_ionare pe %aza impulsului iner_ial' n8ar #ace altceva decet s` dilateze ^i mai mult %alonul4 Cu toate acestea' o corec_ie an sensul diminu`rii pre_urilor pentru aur prezint` riscuri deloc negliGa%ile4 Dup` toate pro%a%ilit`_ile' activitatea carr* trade pe dolar se va poticni la un moment dat' iar %`ncile centrale vor renun_a an cele din urm` la relaxarea cantitativ` ^i la do%enzile cvasinule de politic` monetar`4 .mendou` aceste evolu_ii vor supune la presiuni de sc`dere pre_urile m`r#urilor' inclusiv cele ale aurului4 La un nivel mai general' to_i cei care au o credin_` oar%` an aur ca acoperire ampotriva riscului ar tre%ui s` an_eleag` c` nu antotdeauna crizele ai am%oldesc pe oameni s` cumpere aur4 Perspectiva neachit`rii datoriei suverane an _`ri mai mici le8ar putea da ghes investitorilor spre dolari' nu spre aur4 .cela^i lucru e vala%il pentru orice #el de criz`4 .teta timp cet dolarul ansu^i nu st` an centrul unei crize' pre_ul aurului nu ancepe automat s` se um#le' pur ^i simplu pentru c` investi8 torilor nu le miroase a %ine4 Doar de dragul discu_iei' s` presupunem totu^i c` economia glo%al` plonGeaz`

antr8o cvasidepresiune ^i c` investitorii se andep`rteaz` de dolar4 Ce8ar tre%ui ei s` #ac`' a^adar' s`8^i %age %anii an aurH 2u neap`rat4 (pre deose%ire de alte m`r#uri' aurul nu prea are valoare intrinsec`4 2u8l po_i menca' nu8_i po_i anc`lzi casa cu el ^i nici s`8l antre%uin_ezi an scopuri nemiGlocit utile4 .urul este ceea ce De*nes numea co relicv` %ar%ar` 4 Chiar dac` l8ai putea da la schim% cu ceva mai #olo8 sitor' pro%a%il c` ar #i mult mai an_elept s`8_i #aci provizii de contracte la termen pentru m`r#uri sau' dac` nu _i8e team` c` o s` _i se aplece' cu conserve de carne4 Investitorii ar tre%ui s` #ie circumspec_i an ce prive^te aurul4 Recentele %alansuri ale pre_urilor sale F cu :, la sut` an sus luna aceasta' cu :, la sut` an Gos luna urm`toare F scot an eviden_` #aptul c` #luctua_iile anregistrate sunt adeseori e#ectul unor credin_e ira_ionale ^i al %aloanelor speculative4 Pro%a%il c` e oarecum logic s` de_ii ceva aur' ca protec_ie ampotriva in#la_iei' ^i mai ales dac` guvernele ancep s`8^i monetizeze datoriile4 Dar a de_ine o gr`mad` de aur n8are niciun sens' andeose%i an condi_iile an care este #oarte pro%a%il ca in#la_ia s` r`men` su% control4 In#la_ie sau de#la_ieH La apogeul crizei recente' angriGorarea guvernelor c` ar putea e^ua an de#la_ie le8a determinat pe multe dintre ele s` ia m`suri drastice ampotriva sc`derii pre_urilor4 Do%enzile zero ^i relaxarea cantitativ` ar declan^a an mod normal o rund` de in#la_ie' dar acest lucru nu s8a antemplat an +,,;4 De#la_ia s8a #uri^at an (tatele Unite' an /ona Euro' an 1aponia ^i chiar an ceteva economii de pia_` emergente' dintr8un motiv #oarte simplu" %`ncile ^i8au p`strat cea mai mare parte a lichidit`_ii an exces su% #orma rezervelor mai degra%`' decet s8o dea cu amprumut4 Presiunile de#la_ioniste vor persista' pe termen scurt' an maGoritatea economiilor avansate ^i chiar an unele economii emergente4 dn aproape toate locurile' cererea pentru %unuri ^i #or_` de munc` r`mene antr8o stare de lencezeal`' presend an Gos pre_urile ^i salariile4 (tocurile de %unuri nevendute se lichideaz` la pre_uri #oarte reduse' iar lucr`torii con#runta_i cu rate record ale ^omaGului nu dispun decet de #oarte pu_in` #or_` de negociere' aGungend chiar s` accepte reduceri salariale an schim%ul siguran_ei locului de munc`4 In#la_ia a dat unele semne de reapari_ie an economiile emergente' care s8au %ucurat de o revenire rapid` dup` criza #inanciar`4 La #inele anului +,,;' pre_urile la alimente' petrol ^i propriet`_i imo%iliare cre^teau an China ^i India4 Pentru aceste economii' care e posi%il s` devin` curend supraanc`lzite' in#la_ia ar putea deveni o pro%lem`' an mult mai mare m`sur` decet pentru economiile avansate4 Totu^i' economiile avansate s8ar putea s` asiste la antoarcerea in#la_iei' ancepend din +,:+4 Oricare dintre urm`toarele trei motive ar putea #ace s` se antemple acest lucru4 Unu' dac` guvernele opteaz` s`8^i monetizeze de#icitele' a^tept`rile in#la8

_ioniste se vor in#lama' determinend intrarea antr8un cerc vicios al pr`%u^irii cursurilor de schim% ^i al cre^terii pre_urilor ^i salariilor4 Doi' supraa%unden_a de %ani accesi%ili rev`rsa_i an economie' ca reac_ie la criz`' s8ar putea s` s#er^easc` prin a turna gaz peste #ocul unui %alon speculativ al m`r#urilor' determinend o revenire a in#la_iei4 Trei' dac` dolarul continu` s` se anemieze' pre_ul m`r#urilor an (tatele Unite ar putea s8o ia an sus" a^a cum am v`zut' exist` o propor_ionalitate invers` antre valoarea dolarului ^i pre_ul an dolari al m`r#urilor4 Produc`torii de petrol' spre exemplu' vor maGora pre_ul an dolari al %arilului' dac` moneda american` a^i pierde din valoare4 dn caz contrar' ei ar asista la un declin al puterii de cump`rare pe care o posed` dolarii ancasa_i drept venituri4 Dup` toate pro%a%ilit`_ile' nici in#la_ia' nici de#la_ia nu vor #i pronun_ate an urm`toarele dou`sprezece luni sau chiar mai mult4 dn lipsa unei recesiuni severe cu dou` minime' de#la_ia are ^anse s` r`men` su% control' dar in#la_ia s8ar putea s` prind` avent' an anumite circumstan_e4 $lo%alizarea ^i nemul_umi_ii s`i dn ultimele ceteva decenii' lumea a devenit tot mai cglo%alizat` 4 Comer_ul cu %unuri ^i servicii a c`p`tat tot mai mult o amploare interna_ional`' ca ^i migra_ia meinii de lucru ^i propagarea in#orma_iilor4 $lo%alizarea a mers an tandem cu inovarea tehnologic`' #iecare ant`rind8o pe cealalt`4 De exemplu' capitalul #inanciar circul` acum peste tot an lume cu o vitez` mult mai mare' gra_ie adopt`rii pe scar` larg` a tehnologiei in#ormatice4 Drept rezultat' _`rile pot acum s` presteze servicii unor %ene#iciari din cel`lalt cap`t al lumii" gendi_i8v` la centrele de in#ormare tele#onic` din India' de pild`' ^i la externalizarea posturilor administrative din (tatele Unite4 dn mod similar' China a putut s` se al`ture unor complicate lan_uri de aprovizionare care anconGoar` cam toat` planeta4 Din ce an ce mai mult' _`rile de la peri#eria economic` sunt conectate la economiile avansate ^i reciproca4 $lo%alizarea a adus cu sine o cre^tere marcat` a nivelului de trai din economiile emergente4 (ute de milioane de chinezi' de ru^i' de %razilieni ^i de al_i cet`_eni ai economiilor de pia_` emergente au #ost sco^i din s`r`cie4 Ei au o%_inut sluG%e de cola%orare mai %ine pl`tite ori chiar salarii de clas` miGlocie' ceea ce le8a #acilitat mult mai mult accesul la cele necesare vie_ii' dar ^i la articole de lux4 La rendul lor' pentru cet`_enii economiilor avansate pre_urile %unurilor ^i serviciilor au devenit mereu mai accesi%ile4 Dar glo%alizarea ^i inovarea nu sunt lipsite de riscuri4 $endi_i8v`' de pild`' la monumentala provocare a #aptului c` o#erta glo%al` de #or_` de munc` s8a anmul_it cu miliarde de persoane4 China ^i India au aproape +'B miliarde de locuitori' iar alte + miliarde sunt date de alte economii emergente4 Integrarea lor de#ectuoas` ar putea cauza' an _`rile avansate' un curent de opinie

puternic ampotriva glo%aliz`rii ^i a comer_ului li%er4 Din ne#ericire' genul acesta de tranzi_ie nu prea are cum s` se petreac` lin4 Multe puncte de stres negativ din economia glo%al` F dezechili%rele de cont curent' spre exemplu' ^i prevalen_a crescend` a crizelor #inanciare F depind nu an mic` m`sur` de complexa integrare a economiilor emergente an economia glo%al`4 $lo%alizarea a #ost asociat` ^i cu adencirea inegalit`_ii dintre oameni' an ce prive^te veniturile F atet an economiile emergente' cet ^i an cele avansate4 Motivele pentru care s8a antemplat acest lucru continu` s` #ie su%iect de disput`4 Unii economi^ti atrag aten_ia c` progresul tehnologic i8a l`sat pe dina#ar` pe unii lucr`tori' angr`dindu8le accesul la prosperitatea glo%al` crescend` Jde exemplu' dac` nu ^tii s` #olose^ti un computer' nu8_i po_i am%un`t`_i situa_iaK4 .l_ii arat` cu degetul spre avantaGul comparativ tot mai accentuat al Chinei ^i al altor economii emergente' an domeniul produc_iei %unurilor cu consum intensiv de manoper`4 Oricare ar #i cauzele' aceast` inegalitate sporit` a avut ca e#ect o stare tot mai accentuat` de discon#ort ^i de temere an ce prive^te glo%alizarea ^i comer_ul li%er4 2emul_umirea a anceput la nivelul muncitorilor' din motive lesne de an_eles' dar s8a r`spendit apoi ^i printre cei cu pro#esii care necesit` preg`tire superioar`' pe m`sur` ce externalizarea le8a permis #irmelor s`8^i mute activit`_ile de servicii din economiile avansate' cum ar #i (tatele Unite' an economii emergente' cum ar #i India4 Odat` cu trecerea timpului' antregi ramuri economice s8ar putea s` se mute dintr8o parte a glo%ului antr8alta' provocend serioase pertur%a_ii4 .cest gen de cdistrugere creatoare poate c` este inevita%il`' dar va produce valuri considera%ile de revolt`' dac` nu este gestionat` cum se cuvine4 dn s#er^it' se poate ca glo%alizarea s` deschid` calea unor crize mult mai #recvente ^i mai virulente4 Piteza cu care capitalul #inanciar ^i %anii #ier%in_i pot s` circule' anspre ^i dinspre anumite pie_e ^i economii' a ampli#icat volatilitatea pre_urilor ^i capacitatea mor%id` a crizelor #inanciare4 Din ne#ericire' an timp ce #inan_ele au devenit glo%ale' reglementarea lor r`mene o a#acere na_ional`4 Toate acestea sporesc pro%a%ilitatea de apari_ie a unor crize viitoare care ar putea c`p`ta propor_ii mondiale4 Criza recent` a demonstrat limpede c`' pentru era care vine' un termen descriptiv mai potrivit decet cMarea Modera_ie ar #i cMarea Insta%ilitate 4 6aloanele speculative ^i pr`%u^irea ulterioar` a valorii activelor pot ap`rea mai #recvent' iar crizele despre care alt`dat` se credea c` nu pot avea loc decet o dat` sau de dou` ori antr8un secol pot r`v`^i economia glo%al` mult mai adesea4 Le%edele negre s8ar putea s` se al%easc`4 bi mare p`cat ar #i" pe m`sur` ce cresc an #recven_` ^i gravitate' crizele #inanciare vor da na^tere la insta%ilitate politic` ^i social`' #avorizend pen` la urm` dezl`n_uirea sentimentelor antiglo%alizare4 .ceast` stare de spirit poate am%r`ca nenum`rate #orme" politici comerciale protec_ionisteA protec_ionism #inanciar' cu

restric_ii asupra investi_iilor str`ine directeA perghii de control asupra mi^c`rilor de capitalA ^i o respingere mai ampl` a oric`ror politici care promoveaz` pie_ele li%ere4 Cum s` prevenim un asemenea curent adversH dn primul rend' este esen_ial ca guvernele s` adopte politici de natur` s` reduc` #recven_a ^i virulen_a %aloanelor speculative de pe pie_ele de active' cu tot cu pr`%u^irea ulterioar`4 .cest lucru va necesita re#ormarea sistemului #inanciar ^i a sistemului monetar' dup` principiile enun_ate mai devreme an aceast` carte4 Dar va presupune ^i construirea de c`tre stat a unei plase de siguran_` cu anvergur` mult mai mare4 Dac` lucr`torii tre%uie s` #ie su#icient de #lexi%ili pentru a8^i putea schim%a des locul de munc` ^i pro#ilul pro#esional' atunci ei vor avea nevoie de mai mult spriGin din partea guvernului' ca s` se descurce pe terenul tot mai incert al posi%ilit`_ilor de angaGare4 .ceast` a%ordare F %otezat` csecuritate #lexi%il` F va necesita inves8 ti_ii mai mari an educa_ie' an cali#icare pro#esional` ^i an reconversieA o plas` de siguran_` a indemniza_iilor de ^omaGA ^i planuri porta%ile de pensie ^i de asigur`ri medicale an sistemul de s`n`tate4 dn (tatele Unite' va ansemna ^i introducerea unui sistem de impozitare progresiv`' pentru a se putea #inan_a aceste %ene#icii4 Paradoxal' ca s` #acem pie_ele li%ere s` #unc_ioneze mai %ine ^i ca s` le d`m lucr`torilor posi%ilitatea de8a #i mai #lexi%ili ^i mai mo%ili' antr8o economie glo%al` unde va #i la ordinea zilei cdistrugerea creatoare ' avem nevoie de mai mult` guvernare' nu de mai pu_in`4 $uvernul poate s` #oloseasc` politica monetar` ^i reglementarea sporit` pentru a ampiedica apari_ia ciclurilor avent8pr`%u^ire4 El poate s` #urnizeze o plas` de siguran_` social` mai larg`' pentru a8i aGuta pe lucr`tori s` #ie mai productivi ^i mai #lexi%ili4 El poate s` pun` an practic` sisteme de taxare care s` reduc` inegalit`_ile de venit ^i de avere4 dn #ine' guvernele _`rilor tre%uie s` Goace un rol mai ansemnat an coordonarea mai atent` ^i mai andeaproape a politicilor lor economice' ast#el ancet s` nu se creeze genul de dezechili%re din care iau na^tere de la %un anceput crizele economice4 (e prea poate ca era viitoare s` #ie una a crizelor' aproape ca o stare de normalitate' dar guvernele pot s` le limiteze acestora inciden_a ^i gravitatea4 dn um%ra celei mai nenorocite dezintegr`ri #inanciare de la Marea Depresiune ancoace' mul_i oameni importan_i de la guvernare ^i din lumea economiei au remarcat c` ce mare p`cat s` irose^ti o criz` 4 Per#ect adev`rat4 Pom sem`na semin_ele unei crize anc` ^i mai distrug`toare' dac` rat`m prileGul pe care aceast` criz` ni l8a servit pe tav`' ^i s` nu implement`m re#ormele necesare4 .r #i mare' mare p`cat' ar #i o adev`rat` tragedie s` irosim o asemenea ocazie4 2ote" : .lan 6linder' c9o3 Man* U4(4 1o%s Might 6e O##shora%leH ' Centre #or European Polic* (tudies !or0ing Paper no4 :>+' martie +,,=' online la http"LL3334princeton4eduLicepsL3or0ingpapersL:>+%linder4pd#4

+ Evan Tanner ^i )asser .%dih' cRe%uilding U4(4 !ealth ' -inance and Development >@' no4 > Jdecem%rie +,,;K' pp4 +7F7B' online la http"LL3334 im#4orgLexternalLpu%sL#tL#anddL+,,;L:+Ltanner4htm4 7 Pezi de exemplu http"LL3334visualeconomics4comL gdp8vs8national8de%t8%*8countr*L4 > Rou%ini ^i (etser' 6ailouts or 6ail8InsH' pp4 +=:F=B4 B Pezi de exemplu Organisation #or Economic Co8Operation and Development' cEconomic (urve* o# 1apan +,,; ' 7, septem%rie +,,;' online la http"LL3334oecd4orgLdocumentL7=L,'77>7'enS+@>;S7>B;B S>7=<7B+BS:S: S:S:',,4html4 @ Ian 6remmer ^i 2ouriel Rou%ini' c!h* 1apan 2eeds a 9ato%ama !all (treet 1ournal' 7, decem%rie +,,;' online la http"LLonline43sG4comLarticleL (6:,,,:>+>,B+=><=,>==;=,>B=>BB7>;:B=,@@@@;<4html4 = International Monetar* -und' !orld Economic Outloo0' < iulie +,,;' online la http"LL3334im#4orgLexternalLpu%sL#tL3eoL+,,;LupdateL,+Lindex4 htm4 < 2ouriel Rou%ini' c.nother 6RIC in the !allH ' ProGect (*ndicate' :B octom%rie +,,;' online la http"LL3334proGect8s*ndicate4orgLcommen8 tar*Lrou%ini:<LEnglish4 ; 2ouriel Rou%ini' cMother o# .ll Carr* Trades -aces an Inevita%le 6ust ' -inancial Times' : noiem%rie +,,;4 :, 2ouriel Rou%ini' cThe Ris0* Rich ' ProGect (*ndicate' :< ianuarie +,:,' online la http"LL3334proGect8s*ndicate4orgLcommentar*Lrou%ini+:L English4