OLGC created a new baseball betting game via proline heads up match underdog vs favourite counts of total based

on a range of (1-4) if tiedunderdog wins .5 must have a 1 point difference between the two players of TB Harley's Statistical Study sample size 529 days 58.77778 probability of underdog winning0.589792 small sample size and not enough historical data??? V(x) = e[x^2] - (e[x])^2 parlay BET 1 x Correct Predictions payout probability of probability winning on of losing #of games on tickets 5 20 to 1 0.071367 0.9286 6 35 to 1 0.042091 0.9579 7 75 to 1 0.024825 0.9752 8 149 to 1 0.014642 0.9854 probability of underdog winning

Binomial function 0.0713665 0.0420914 0.0248252 0.0146417

BET 100 Weighted Potential Payout Portfolio 5 Portfolio 8

Weights Dollar Allocation of Bet 50% 50 50% 50

Potential Payout 67.79865 109.0829

BET 100 Weighted Potential Payout Portfolio 8 Portfolio 6

Weights Dollar Allocation of Bet 50% 50 50% 50

Potential Payout 109.0829 73.65925

How should he proceed?

Was there anything else he should think of? historical performance of each player and the probability of each player hitting a single, double etc

WAS THERE MONEY TO BE MADE?

ASK Hendricks

x x^2 P(x)

19 361 0.071367

-1 1 0.928633

18 362 1

expected vaue Payout Multiplier Expected Value Variance Standard Deviation Mean Plays Between Wins 19 0.42734 26.50950052 5.14873776 14.01207841 35 0.51528 52.25387464 7.228684157 23.75804804 75 0.88670 139.8295631 11.8249551 40.28197382 149 1.19630 324.6212663 18.01724913 68.29668078 This method assumes that the probability of losing initial bet is 100%

Potential Loss Total -46.4317 -49.2679

21.367 59.815 81.182

Potential Loss Total -49.2679 -47.8955

59.815 25.7638 85.5788

single, double etc

CV 12.04834 14.02876 13.33591 15.06081

CV sd/mean

2.721459 0.194222

Who what where when why Size up

Harley and Effie pro line betting - new baseball betting - based on total bases (TB) - opportunity of mispriced betting Ontario June 1 2004 is there money to be made (i.e. is the expected value for harley and his effie buddy positive) how deep is your pockets when will payout start margin -- never a tie amount of bets number of games played in a night number of games on tickets based on a parlay

Issues/concerns/opinions someone who knows baseball pitcher

pportunity of mispriced betting

his effie buddy positive)

who what when where why sizeup

thinks that the betting scheme is mispriced is the expected value , in the perspective of the bettor, in their favour the maximum amount that can be put on the line who is pitching? metric between favourite and underdog is Total Bases ties are possible, but given to underdog b/c of the .5 margin comparison of batting average between the two players is a good basis of analysis should have performed historical comparison **expected value and variance

to determine if sample size is good enough, look at the outcome probability and see if it is within the desired prob

see if it is within the desired probability (e.g. 50%)