State Specific Efficiency Potential Implications For South

Working Paper Series
__________________________________________________________________________________
Working Paper # 51
Appendix D
State-Specific Summaries of the

Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their Implications for the South
Sharon (Jess) Chandler and Marilyn A. Brown
August 2009
Contents
State Page State Page
Alabama 1 Mississippi 61
Arkansas 8 North Carolina 68
District of Columbia 14 Oklahoma 76
Delaware 20 South Carolina 83
Florida 26 Tennessee 90
Georgia 33 Texas 97
Kentucky 41 Virginia 104
Louisiana 48 West Virginia 111
Maryland 54
Georgia Institute of Technology

D. M. Smith Building
Room 107
685 Cherry Street
Atlanta, GA 30332 - 0345
Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and
Their Implications for Alabamai
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Alabama has been evaluated three
times within regional studies and twice at the state level. In addition to evaluating this
existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Alabama. In total,
this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and
demand in the State.
Alabama’s forecasted AEO 2009 consumption in each sector is similar to the East South
Central census region, where commercial consumption increases slightly more than
residential, while industrial consumption has a flat trajectory for electricity and a
declining forecast for natural gas. Moderate or maximum achievable potentials in
Alabama could bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007 levels for all sectors.
Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

savings exist in Alabama. The full development of these nearly pollution free
opportunities could save 0.18 quads, reducing the state’s total consumption in 2030 by
9.8%. Such development may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the
expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply.
Figure 1. Change in Total Fuels Consumption with Average Maximum Achievable
Potential
Figure 1a. By Fuel Figure 1b. By Sector
Figure 1 shows the main contributor to the maximum achievable savings potential is the
industrial sector. The energy efficiency savings from electricity is also predicted to
exceed that of natural gas.
1
Meta-Review Results
A useful estimate for potential savings in Alabama can be made by relying on the overall
average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for the
State of Alabama out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the
summarized studies presented in the main body of the report.
Figures 2 and 3 show electricity savings potential based on the summarized studies
compared to the reference case forecast of future consumption derived by the Georgia
Institute of Technology using Energy Information Administration’s regional forecasts. If
the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the residential, industrial, and
commercial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 38 trillion Btu in 2020, or about
the amount consumed by about 613,000 Alabama households in 2006.ii The largest
contribution would be from the industrial sector. These savings could bring consumption
below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Alabama, by Sector
2
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Alabama, by Sector and Type
Figure 3a. Residential Figure 3b. Commercial
Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity
Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of about 38 trillion Btu
is also approximately the energy produced by over one power plant.iii This reduction is
about 11.8% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the
forecast anticipates industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007,
residential and commercial sectors drive Alabama’s future electricity consumption.
Maximum achievable potential for the residential and commercial sectors could bring
consumption in 2020 back to 2007 levels. See Figure 3.
3
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Alabama, by Sector and Type
Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total
Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is about 18 trillion Btu
and is 7.5% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Alabama in 2020. The forecast for
natural gas predicts a small consumption in increase in residential and commercial
sectors, but a decline in industrial, where the projected consumption in 2020 is less than
that of 2007. The total and commerical natural gas consumption in 2020 as well as
commercial and industrial can be reduced to 2007 levels using the achievable maximum.
The residential sector can achieve 2007 natural gas consumption levels in 2020 only
through realizing technical potential (i.e. not necessarily cost-effective, or economic
potential). See Figure 4.
4
References
Census Bureau. (2009). American Factfinder: American Community Survey. Retrieved from:
http://factfinder.census.gov.
Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). “Meta-Review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Their
Implications for the South,” Georgia Institute of Technology, School of Public Policy
Working Paper, (http://www.spp.gatech.edu/faculty/workingpapers.php), forthcoming.
Energy Information Agency. (2009). State Energy Data System. Retrieved from:
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/states/_seds.html.
Koomey, J. et al. (2009). Defining a standard metric for electricity savings. Environ. Res. Lett. 4
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Alabama Efficiency Potential Studies
See Table 1 for studies and publication dates.

Table 1. Alabama Energy Efficiency Potential Studies
Study End Year Length Region
1. EPRI (2009) 2030 22 South Census Region
2. SEEA (2009) 2030 20 Appalachia
3. Beck et al. (2002) 2020 20 TN, NC, SC, GA, FL, AL
4. Beck et al. (2002) 2020 20 Alabama
5. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Alabama
Regional Studies
• Beck, Fredric, Damian Kostiuk, Tim Woolf, and Virinder Singh. 2002. Powering the
South: A Clean Affordable Energy Plan for the Southern United States. Renewable
Energy Policy Project.
http://www.repp.org/articles/static/1/binaries/pts_repp_book.pdf
Powering the South estimates the potential for efficiency and renewable resources in the
southeast by 2020, showing that aggressive efficiency policies can offset more than half
of expected load growth over this period. The study concludes that the suite of policies
presented can substantially decrease emissions of harmful pollutants and improve other
measures of environmental quality. Potential estimates are given for the combined six
state region (dubbed the "South" for this study) as well as rough estimates on a state-by-
state basis.
• Brown, Marilyn. John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti
Vaidyanathan, Vanessa McKinney, Cecelia “Elise” Logan, and Therese Langer. 2009.
Energy Efficiency in Appalachia: How Much More is Available, at What Cost, and by
When? Prepared by the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) for the Appalachian
Regional Commission (ARC). http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335
5
This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410-
county Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation
sectors. The study assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several
transformative energy policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of
the Annual Energy Outlook 2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by
2030. While the report does not summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast
consumption, it does show savings by fuel for each policy package.
• EPRI. 2009. Assessment of Achievable Potential from Energy Efficiency and Demand
Response Programs in the U.S.: (2010–2030). EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: 2009. 1016987.
http://my.epri.com/portal/server.pt?Abstract_id=000000000001016987
This study provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region
levels; it was "undertaken to provide an independent, analytically-rigorous estimate of the
electricity savings potential of energy efficiency and demand response programs to
inform utilities, policymakers, regulators, and other stakeholder groups."
State Studies
• Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of Alabama
• Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy on
Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American Council for an Energy
Efficient Economy Report E052. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm
This study updates a study in 2003 on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable
energy sources to reduce the strain on natural gas markets to avoid skyrocketing and
volatile natural gas prices. Based on existing policy and state and regional differences,
the study estimates the total potential for achievable energy efficiency for electricity and
natural gas - for the nation as a whole and individual states. Estimates of potential are
given in 1, 5, 10, and 15 year increments - ending in 2020. The study was meant to drive
the attention and commitment of policy makers to energy efficiency and renewable
energy policies.
6
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Alabama
South TN, NC, SC,
Appalachia AL AL
Census GA, FL, AL
EPRI SEEA Beck et al. Beck et al. Elliott &
Study Ref
(2009) (2009) (2002) (2002) Shipley (2005)
End Year 2030 2030 2020 2020 2020
Length
22 20 20 20 15
(years)
Technical
Residential -- -- -- -- --
Commercial -- -- -- -- --
Industrial -- -- -- -- --
Total -- (31/--) -- -- -- --
Economic
Total -- (13/--) -- -- -- --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- 15 (11/23) -- -- --
Commercial -- 28 (30/22) -- -- --
Industrial -- 22 (42/15) -- -- --
Total -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) -- -- --(8/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- -- -- (14/--) -- --
Commercial -- -- -- (14/--) -- --
Industrial -- -- -- (15/--) -- --
Total -- (8/--) -- -- (14/--) -- (23/--) --
Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural gas)'.
-- Estimate not presented in report
i
This state profile is based on research described in Chandler and Brown (2009). Assistance with the
individual state profiles was provided by Joy Wang, Youngsun Baek, Rodrigo Cortes, Matt Cox, and Diran
Soumonni, Georgia Institute of Technology graduate research assistants.
ii
Calculated using 2005-2007 household data (Census, 2009) and 2006 electricity consumption data (EIA,
2009).
iii
Calculated by assuming a 500 MW existing coal plant operating at 70% capacity factor with 7% T&D
losses (Koomey, et al., 2009).
7
Their Implications for Arkansasi
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Arkansas has been evaluated twice –
once each at the regional and state level. In addition to evaluating this existing literature,
EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Arkansas. In total, this allows an
assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the
State.
Arkansas’s forecasted AEO 2009 consumption declines in all sectors by about 37 trillion
Btu. Consumption in the industrial and residential sectors each decrease by 2.6% while
the commercial sector increases by 4.3% from 20009 to 2020. Moderate or maximum
achievable potentials in Arkansas could bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007
levels for all sectors, except electricity consumption in the commercial sector.

savings exist in Arkansas. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free
opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the
State over the next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs
associated with the expansion of electricity and natural gas infrastructure and supply.
Potential
8
Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential and
commercial sectors. The industrial sector has slightly larger savings potential.
Likewise, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural
gas.
Meta-Review Results
An estimate for potential savings in Arkansas can be made by relying on the overall
State of Arkansas until 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized
studies presented in the main body of the report.
the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the commercial, residential, and
industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 19 trillion Btu by 2020, or about
the amount consumed by 366,000 Arkansas households in 2006.ii These savings could
bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Arkansas, by Sector
9
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Arkansas, by Sector and Type
is also over half the energy produced by one power plant.iii This reduction is about
11.9% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. There is an increase
in projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption in all the sectors with 13.3% in the
commercial sector, 3.7% in the residential and 2.9% in the industrial sector from 2009 to
2020. The forecasted maximum achievable savings bring 2020 consumption below 2007
levels for all but the commercial sector. See Figure 3.
10
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Arkansas, by Sector and Type
and is 7.5% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Arkansas in 2020. From 2009 to
2020, the AEO 2009 forecasts a slight decrease in natural gas consumption of 1.1% in the
industrial sector, while it forecasts an increase of 5.1% in the residential sector and a
1.3% increase in the commercial sector. Maximum achievable savings in the commercial
sector can bring consumption below 2007 levels. See Figure 4.
11
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Arkansas Efficiency Potential Studies
See Table 1 for publications and publication dates.
Table 1. Arkansas Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Arkansas
Regional Studies
State Studies
12
energy policies.
Table 2. Summary of Studies For the State of Arkansas
South Census AR
Study Ref EPRI (2009) Elliott & Shipley (2005)
End Year 2030 2020
Length (years) 22 15
Technical
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (31/--) --
Economic
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (13/--) --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (11/--) --(8/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (8/--) --
Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels (electricity/natural
gas)'.
i
ii
2009).
iii
13
Their Implications for District of Columbiai
Over the past decade, the energy efficiency potential of the District of Columbia has been
evaluated twice – once each at the regional and state levels. In addition to evaluating this
existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the District of Columbia. In total,
demand in the district.
The maximum achievable electricity potential in the District of Columbia is unreflective

of the regional potential. Overall, the commercial sector dominates the electricity
efficiency potential. The electricity consumption trends for the residential, commercial,
and industrial sectors of D. C. all decline more rapidly than the South Atlantic regional
trends. The natural gas consumption trends also show marked downward deviations from
the census division trends.

savings exist in the District of Columbia. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-
free opportunities could further decrease the projected energy consumption forecasted for
the State over the next decade.
Potential
Figure 1 shows the commercial sector as a larger contributor to the electricity efficiency
potential under the maximum achievable case than the residential or industrial sectors.
Energy efficiency potential from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas.
14
Meta-Review Results
An estimate for potential savings in the District of Columbia can be made by relying on
the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings
for the District of Columbia out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the
industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 4.4 trillion Btu by 2020, or about
the amount consumed by about 177,000 District of Columbia households in 2006.ii The
largest contribution would be from the commercial sector. These savings could bring
consumption about 7 trillion Btu below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in District of Columbia, by Sector
15
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for District of Columbia, by Sector and Type
Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 4.4 trillion Btu is
also about the energy produced by one seventh of a power plant.iii This reduction is
about 12.6% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. The District of
Columbia is projected to have decreasing consumption in all sectors and with all
scenarios. See Figure 3.
16
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for District of Columbia, by Sector and Type
NA
Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 2 trillion Btu and is
7.9% of natural gas consumption forecasted for the District of Columbia in 2020. The
projected natural gas consumption declines over the study period with all scenarios. See
Figure 4.
17
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of the District of Columbia Efficiency Potential Studies
Table 1. District of Columbia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 District of Columbia
Regional Studies
State Studies
18
energy policies.
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the District of Columbia

South Census DC
End Year 2030 2020
Length
22 15
(years)
Technical
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (31/--) --
Economic
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (13/--) --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (11/--) --(10/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (8/--) --
gas)'.
i
ii
2009).
iii
19
Their Implications for Delawarei
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Delaware has been evaluated twice
– once each at the regional and state level. In addition to evaluating this existing
literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Delaware. In total, this allows
an assessment of the energy efficiency potential to offset growth and demand in the State.
The projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for Delaware does not rise as steeply as
the South Atlantic regional consumption, but is largely reflective of the regional trends.
Delaware’s projected natural gas consumption varies from the regional trends especially
in the commercial sector, where consumption in 2020 is similar to 2007 values.

savings exist in Delaware. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free
Potential
Figure 1 shows the similarity of the savings potential between the residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors. In contrast, energy efficiency savings from
electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas.
20
Meta-Review Results
An estimate for potential savings in Delaware can be made by relying on the overall
State of Delaware until 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the
industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 5.2 trillion BTUs by 2020, or
about the amount consumed by 115,000 Delaware households in 2006.ii These savings
could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Delaware, by Sector
21
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Delaware, by Sector and Type
Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 5.2 trillion Btu,
which is also about the energy produced by one fifth of a power plant.iii This reduction is
about 12% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. The forecast
achievable savings bring 2020 consumption below 2007 levels for all but the commercial
sector. Delaware’s residential, industrial, and total electricity projected consumption in
2020 falls below 2007 levels with the maximum achievable scenario. The projected
commercial consumption rises slightly under the same conditions. See Figure 3.
22
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Delaware, by Sector and Type
Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 2.5 trillion Btu and
is 7.5% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Delaware in 2020. Delaware’s
projected natural gas consumption declines more rapidly than the regional maximum
achievable scenario, largely due to the commercial sector. The residential and industrial
sectors are representative of the regional trends. See Figure 4.
23
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Delaware Efficiency Potential Studies

Table 1. Delaware Energy Efficiency Potential Studies
6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 District of Columbia
Regional Studies
State Studies
24
energy policies.
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Delaware

South Census DE
End Year 2030 2020
Technical
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (31/--) --
Economic
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (13/--) --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (11/--) --(10/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (8/--) --
gas)'.
i
ii
2009).
iii
25
Their Implications for Floridai
Over the past decade, the energy efficiency potential for the State of Florida has been
estimated five times – twice as part of a regional study and three times in state studies. In
addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the
Florida. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset
growth and demand in the State.
Florida’s overall maximum achievable electricity potential shows a smaller proportion of

industrial potential than the region. Even though Florida’s overall projected sectoral
electricity trends are similar to the South Atlantic region, their magnitudes differ from the
regional projections. Florida’s projected industrial consumption also differs from the
regional projection. The State is projected to have a decline in industrial consumption of
natural gas and electricity before rebounding roughly to 2007 levels by 2020, according
to the AEO 2009 projections.

savings exist in Florida. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities
could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the
next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with
energy infrastructure expansion and supply.
Potential
26
Meta-Review Results
An estimate for potential savings in Florida can be made by relying on the overall
state of Florida out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the summarized
studies presented in the main body of the report.
the amount consumed by over 1,970,000 Florida households in 2006.ii The bulk of the
savings from the commercial and residential sectors, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Florida, by Sector
27
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Florida, by Sector and Type
Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 110 trillion Btu is
also about the energy produced by over three power plants.iii This reduction is about
11.1% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. Growth in
consumption from the residential and commercial sectors drives Florida’s future
electricity consumption. Achievable potential for the residential and industrial sectors
could bring consumption in 2020 below2007 levels; however, projected commercial
electricity consumption growth is not expected to be avoided even if technical potential is
achieved. See Figure 3.
28
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Florida, by Sector and Type
Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 11.3 trillion Btu and
is 7.1% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Florida in 2020. The total projected
consumption of natural gas in the State increases above 2007 levels in 2020 with the
maximum achievable scenario, while the total South Atlantic consumption is projected to
decrease. This increase may be largely attributed to the increase in projected
consumption of the commercial sector even with the maximum achievable scenario. See
Figure 4.
29
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Florida Efficiency Potential Studies
Table 1. Florida Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

5. Beck et al. (2002) 2020 20 Florida
6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Florida
7. Elliott et al. (2007) 2023 15 Florida
Regional Studies
state basis.
30
State Studies
• Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of Florida
• Elliott, R. N., Eldridge, M., Shipley, A. M., Laitner, S., Nadel, S., Fairey, P., et al.
(2007). Potential for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy to Meet Florida's
Growing Energy Demands (No. E072): American Council for an Energy Efficient
Economy. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e072.htm
This report "estimates the capacity for energy efficiency and renewable energy resources
in Florida and suggests a suite of policy options that the state should consider to realize
their achievable potential" (p.2). The study finds that Florida could cost-effectively
offset 45% of it's forecast conventional electricity needs by 2023 using a combination of
renewable (two-thirds of reduction) and efficiency (one-third of reduction) measures.
energy policies.
31
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Florida
South TN, NC, SC,
FL FL FL
Census GA, FL, AL
Beck et al. Elliott et al. Beck et al. Elliott &
Study Ref EPRI (2009)
(2002) (2007) (2002) Shipley (2005)
End Year 2030 2020 2023 2020 2020
Length
22 20 15 20 15
(years)
Technical
Total -- (31/--) -- -- -- --
Economic
Residential -- -- -- (34/--) -- --
Commercial -- -- -- (28/--) -- --
Industrial -- -- -- (24/--) -- --
Total -- (13/--) -- -- -- --
Maximum Achievable
Total -- (11/--) -- -- -- -- (10/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- -- (14/--) -- -- --
Commercial -- -- (14/--) -- -- --
Industrial -- -- (15/--) -- -- --
Total -- (8/--) -- (14/--) -- (26/--) -- (22/--) --
i
ii
2009).
iii
32
Their Implications for Georgiai
Over the past decade, the energy efficiency potential for the state of Georgia has been
evaluated in seven different reports. Not only has it been included in three regional
studies, its efficiency potential has been estimated by three state level studies and one
utility study. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been
created for the State of Georgia. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for
energy efficiency to offset the growing demand for energy in the State.
Georgia’s forecasted consumption in each sector is similar to the South Atlantic census
region, where consumption in commercial buildings is expected to most rapidly, followed
by residential buildings and industrial consumption. Moderate or maximum achievable
potentials in Georgia could bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007 levels for the
residential and industrial sectors. Residential consumption of natural gas in the
commercial sector is not expected to drop below 2007 levels in 2020 under the maximum
or moderate achievable scenarios. For these, the need for more rigorous policy
intervention may be required

savings exist in Georgia. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities
could largely offset the growth in energy consumption forecasted for the State over the
next decade. Such deployment may minimize capacity-related costs associated with the
Potential
33
Meta-Review Results
An estimate of Georgia’s potential energy savings can be made using the average energy
efficiency potentials published in the 19 studies covering the South, as described in
Chandler and Brown (2009). Figures 1-4 show potential savings for Georgia to 2020,
assuming the average percent per year efficiency potential is realized.
the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the residential, industrial, and
commerical sectors are achieved, savings could be about 60 trillion Btu in 2020, or about
the amount consumed by over one million Georgia households in 2006.ii The largest
contribution would be from the commercial sector. These savings could bring
consumption in 2020 to below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Georgia, by Sector
34
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Georgia, by Sector and Type
Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 60 trillion Btu is also
approximately the energy produced by two power plants.iii This reduction is about 11.6%
of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the forecast
anticipates that industrial consumption in 2020 to be slightly less than the sector’s
consumption in 2007, residential and commercial sectors drive Georgia’s future
electricity consumption. Achievable potential for the residential sector could bring
consumption in 2020 near 2007 levels; however, some of the projected growth in
commercial electricity consumption is likely unavoidable unless some technical potential
is exploited. This would likely require the implementation of vigorous deployment
policies. See Figure 3.
35
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Georgia, by Sector and Type
Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total Natural Gas
7.3% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Georgia in 2020. The forecast for natural
gas predicts a consumption increase in all sectors except industrial, where the projected
consumption in 2020 is less than that in 2007. Only total natural gas consumption in
2020 can be reduced to 2007 levels using the achievable maximum. The residential
sector can achieve 2007 natural gas consumption levels in 2020 only through realizing
technical potential. See Figure 4.
36
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Georgia Efficiency Potential Studies
Table 1. Georgia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

4. Jensen, V. & Lounsbury (2005) 2010 5 Georgia
5. Beck et al. (2002) 2020 20 Georgia
6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Georgia
7. Nexant, Inc. (2007) 2018 11 Georgia Power Service Territory
8. Nexant, Inc. (2007) 2010 3 Georgia Power Service Territory
Regional Studies
state basis.
• Brown, Marilyn, John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti
37
State Studies
• Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of Georgia
• Jensen, V., & Lounsbury, E. (2005). Assessment of Energy Efficiency Potential in Georgia.
ICF Consulting for Georgia Environmental Facilities Authority.
http://www.gefa.org/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=46.
This study estimated the technical, economic, and achievable (with policies ranging from
minimally to very aggressive) energy efficiency potential across the state of Georgia.
Further, the study examined the costs and environmental benefits of achieving the
potential. A companion report lists a number of policies that could be adopted to capture
the potential estimated here.
energy policies.
38
Substate Studies
• Nexant, Inc. 2007. Achievable Energy Efficiency Potential Assessment: Final Study for
Georgia Power. Public Disclosure. Prepared for Georgia Power and presented to the
Georgia Public Service Commission.
This report was prepared to fulfill a requirement for the Georgia Public Service
Commission under docket number 22449-U by including an assessment of cost-effective
achievable savings with Georgia Powers 2007 Integrated Resource Plan filing. Nexant,
Inc. followed the approach used by ICF Consulting during the 2005 assessment of
efficiency potential for the state of Georgia (see Jensen & Lounsbury, 2005). The study
found that efficiency could meet 1.7% (with a minimally aggressive 25% incentive level)
to 6.2% (with an aggressive 100% incentive level) of the company's forecast sales by
2010; estimates were developed to 2018, but moderate achievable savings were only
reported to 2010 in the study.
39
Table 2. Summary of Studies the State of Georgia
Ga Ga
TN, NC, Power Power
South SC, GA, Service Service
Census Appalachia FL, AL GA GA GA Territory Territory
Jensen, V.
Elliott &
Beck et & Nexant, Nexant,
Shipley
EPRI SEEA al. Lounsbury Beck et Inc. Inc.
(2005)
Study Ref (2009) (2009) (2002) (2005) al. (2002) (2007) (2007)
End Year 2030 2030 2020 2010 2020 2020 2018 2010
Length
(years) 22 20 20 5 20 15 11 3
Technical
Residential -- -- -- -- -- -- -- (33/--) --
Commercial -- -- -- -- -- -- -- (33/--) --
Industrial -- -- -- -- -- -- -- (26/--) --
-- (31/--
Total ) -- -- -- -- -- -- (31/--) --
Economic
Residential -- -- -- -- -- -- -- (22/--) --
Commercial -- -- -- -- -- -- -- (25/--) --
Industrial -- -- -- -- -- -- -- (25/--) --
-- (13/--
Total ) -- -- -- -- -- -- (24/--) --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- 15 (11/23) -- -- (9/5) -- -- -- (9/--) -- (7/--)
Commercial -- 28 (30/22) -- -- (10/10) -- -- -- (11/--) -- (8/--)
Industrial -- 22 (42/15) -- -- (7/5) -- -- -- (10/--) -- (3/--)
-- (11/--
Total ) 24 (27/14) -- -- (9/6) -- --(5/--) -- (10/--) -- (6/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- -- -- (14/--) -- (5/4) -- -- -- -- (4/--)
Commercial -- -- -- (14/--) -- (8/8) -- -- -- -- (4/--)
Industrial -- -- -- (15/--) -- (5/4) -- -- -- -- (2/--)
Total -- (8/--) -- -- (14/--) -- (6/4) -- (23/--) -- -- -- (3/--)
i
ii
2009).
iii
40
Their Implications for Kentuckyi
Over the past decade, the efficiency potential for Kentucky has been evaluated in five
reports. Kentucky is included in three regional studies, and two state level studies have
been conducted for Kentucky. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA
forecasts have been created for the State of Kentucky. In total, this allows an assessment
of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State.
Kentucky’s forecasted AEO 2009 consumption in each sector is similar to the East South
Central census region, where commercial consumption increases the most, followed by
the residential sector. On the other hand, industrial consumption is forecasted to be flat
and its projected natural gas consumption also declines.

savings exist in Kentucky. The full development of these nearly pollution free
Potential
commercial sectors. The industrial sector has slightly larger savings potential.
Likewise, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural
gas.
41
Meta-Review Results
A useful estimate for potential savings in the state of Kentucky can be made by relying
on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential
savings for the state of Kentucky out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from
the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report.
the maximum achievable electric efficiency potential for the residential , industrial, and
the amount consumed by over 695,000 Kentucky households in 2006.ii The largest
contribution would be from the industrial sector. These savings could bring consumption
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Kentucky, by Sector
42
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Kentucky, by Sector and Type
is also approximately the energy produced by over one power plant.iii This reduction is
AEO 2009 already forecasts industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption
in 2007, growth in consumption from the commercial sector drive Kentucky’s future
electricity consumption. Achievable potential for the residential sector could bring
consumption in 2020 near 2007 levels; however, projected commercial electricity
consumption growth is not expected to be avoided unless economic potential is achieved.
See Figure 3.
43
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Kentucky, by Sector and Type
and is about 7.4% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Kentucky in 2020. The
forecast for natural gas predicts a consumption in increase in residential and commercial
sectors, but a decline in industrial, where the projected consumption in 2020 is less than
that of 2007. Only total natural gas consumption in 2020 can be reduced to 2007 levels
using the achievable maximum. The residential sector can achieve 2007 natural gas
consumption levels in 2020 only through realizing technical potential (i.e. not necessarily
cost-effective, or economic potential). The forecast growth in commercial sector, on the
other hand, can be offset by exploiting economic potential. See Figure 4.
44
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Kentucky Efficiency Potential Studies

Table 1. Kentucky Energy Efficiency Potential Studies
3. MEEA (2007) ---- 20 IL, IN, IA, KY, MI, MN, MO, OH, WI
4. KPPC & ACEEE (2007) 2017 10 Kentucky
6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Kentucky
Regional Studies
• Brown, Marilyn, John “Skip” Laitner, Sharon “Jess” Chandler, Elizabeth D. Kelly, Shruti
45
• MEEA. 2007. MEEA Midwest Residential Market Assessment and DSM
Potential Study. Sponsored by Xcel Energy.
http://www.mwalliance.org/image/docs/resources/MEEA-Resource-5.pdf
The MEEA market assessment and potential study characterizes the potential for energy
efficiency and demand side management in the residential sector. The study included
surveys to collect primary data. The study presents estimates of potential for electricity
and natural gas in the residential sector for the MEEA region and for its eight component
states. The study finds that natural gas savings potentials are larger and more consistent
across states than the electricity savings potentials.
State Studies
• Kentucky Pollution Prevention Center and American Council for an Energy
Efficient Economy. 2007. An Overview of Kentucky's Energy Consumption and
Energy Efficiency Potential. Prepared for the Governor's Office of Energy Policy.
http://louisville.edu/kppc/publications
This report forecasts future consumption and analyzes energy consumption in Kentucky’s
residential, commercial and industrial sectors and estimates the impact that energy
efficiency could play in reducing future energy demand. Two policy forecasts are shown
- minimally and moderately aggressive - drawing on the Annual Energy Outlook's high
technology and best available technology cases; under the moderately aggressive
scenario, all of the forecast load growth is offset by energy efficiency.
• Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American
Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052.
http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e052.htm
energy policies.
46
Table 2. Summary of Studies For the State of Kentucky
IL, IN, IA, KY,
South
Appalachia MI, MN, MO, KY KY
Census
OH, WI
KPPC &
EPRI SEEA Elliott &
Study Ref MEEA (2007) ACEEE
(2009) (2009) Shipley (2005)
(2007)
End Year 2030 2030 (blank) 2017 2020
Length (years) 22 20 20 10 15
Technical
Residential -- -- -- (24/47) -- --
Total -- (31/--) -- -- -- --
Economic
Total -- (13/--) -- -- -- --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- 15 (11/23) -- -- --
Commercial -- 28 (30/22) -- -- --
Industrial -- 22 (42/15) -- -- --
Total -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) -- -- --(8/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- -- -- (10/25) 8 (--/--) --
Commercial -- -- -- 7 (--/--) --
Industrial -- -- -- -- (16/10) --
Total -- (8/--) -- -- -- --
i
ii
2009).
iii
47
Their Implications for Louisianai
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Louisiana has been evaluated twice
– once each at the regional and state level. In addition to evaluating this existing
literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Louisiana. In total, this allows
an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset the growing demand for
energy in the State.
From 2009 to 2020, Louisiana’s forecasted AEO 2009 consumption declines in all
sectors by about 299 trillion Btu. During this time, the industrial sector decreases the
most by 13.3% followed by the residential sector by 6.7% and finally the commercial
sector by 0.1%. Moderate or maximum achievable potentials in Louisiana could bring
consumption in 2020 below 2007 levels for all sectors.

savings exist in Louisiana. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free
opportunities could further decrease energy consumption forecasted for the State over the
next decade.
Potential
Figure 1 shows the dominance of the savings potential by the industrial sector. Savings
potential from natural gas also exceed that of electricity.
48
Meta-Review Results
An estimate of the potential savings in Louisiana can be made by relying on the overall
State of Louisiana out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the
the amount consumed by 542,000 Louisiana households in 2006.ii These savings could
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Louisiana, by Sector
49
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Louisiana, by Sector and Type
is also about the energy produced by slightly over one power plant.iii This reduction is
about 12.1% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. The forecast
achievable savings bring 2020 consumption below 2007 levels for all sectors. See Figure
3.
50
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Louisiana, by Sector and Type
7.8% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Louisiana in 2020. A decrease in natural
gas consumption is forecasted in the industrial and commercial sectors of 3% and 5.3%
respectively from 2007 to 2020 while there is a slight increase of 0.7% in the residential
sector. See Figure 4.
51
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Louisiana Efficiency Potential Studies
Table 1. Louisiana Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Louisiana
Regional Studies
State Studies
energy policies.
52
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Louisiana
South Census DE
End Year 2030 2020
Technical
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (31/--) --
Economic
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (13/--) --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (11/--) --(11/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- --
Commercial -- --
Industrial -- --
Total -- (8/--) --
gas)'.
i
ii
2009).
iii
53
Their Implications for Marylandi
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Maryland has been evaluated four
times – twice each at the regional and state level. In addition to evaluating this existing
literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Maryland. In total, this allows
an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the
State.
Maryland’s overall total projected electricity consumption in 2020 approximates 2007

levels, like the South Atlantic region, but its projected electricity consumption in the
residential and commercial sectors decrease. The projected increase in industrial
electricity consumption negates these consumption avoidances during the period.
Maryland’s projected natural gas consumption in the residential, commercial, and
industrial sectors are reflective of the regional trend. Still, overall, it shows an increase in
natural gas consumption given the maximum achievable scenario, which varies from the
region.

savings exist in Maryland. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free
Potential
54
commercial sectors dominating the potential energy efficiency savings. In contrast,
energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted to exceed that of natural gas.
Meta-Review Results
A useful estimate for potential savings in the state of Maryland can be made by relying
on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential
savings for the state of Maryland out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from
the amount consumed by about 656,000 Maryland households in 2006.ii The bulk of
savings shared by the residential and commercial sectors. These savings could bring
consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Maryland, by Sector
55
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Maryland, by Sector and Type
Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 29 trillion Btu, which
is also about the energy produced by almost one power plant.iii This reduction is about
11.7% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. Unlike the typical
South Atlantic region, Maryland has a decrease in 2020 consumption from 2007 levels in
the residential and commercial sectors given the maximum achievable scenario. The
industrial sector consumption rises in 2020 from 2007 consumption levels with the same
scenario. Still, overall, the State consumption of total electricity in 2020 may reach 2007
levels if the maximum achievable scenario is realized. See Figure 3.
56
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Maryland, by Sector and Type
and is 7.3% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Maryland in 2020. Maryland’s
natural gas consumption potential is representative of the South Atlantic regional average
within the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Unlike the regional average,
Maryland has an increase in the total projected consumption of natural gas in 2020
compared to 2007 levels. See Figure 4.
57
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Maryland Efficiency Potential Studies
Table 1. Georgia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

3. Eldrige, M. et al. (2008) 2025 17 Maryland
4. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Maryland
Regional Studies
Regional Commission (ARC).
http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335
This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410-county
Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study
assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy
policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook
2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not
summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for
each policy package.
58
EPRI (2009) provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region
State Studies
• Eldridge, Maggie, Neal Elliott, William Prindle, Katie Ackerly, John “Skip” Laitner,
Vanessa McKinney, Steve Nadel, Max Neubauer, Alison Silverstein, Bruce dman, Anne
Hampson, and Ken Darrow. . 2008. Energy Efficiency: The First Fuel for a Clean Energy
Future. Resources for Meeting Maryland's Electricity Needs. American Council for an
Energy Efficient Economy and EEA division of ICF International.
This report sought to demonstrate that cost-effective energy efficiency can meet the Maryland's
statewide goals for electricity demand reductions. In addition, it shows that efficiency
investments, driven by substantial policy, can create jobs and boost the economy.
energy policies.
59
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Maryland
South Census Appalachia MD MD
Eldridge, M. et Elliott & Shipley
Study Ref EPRI (2009) SEEA (2009)
al. (2008) (2005)
End Year 2030 2030 2025 2020
Length
22 20 17 15
(years)
Technical
Residential -- -- -- --
Commercial -- -- -- --
Industrial -- -- -- --
Total -- (31/--) -- -- --
Economic
Residential -- -- -- (31/--) --
Commercial -- -- -- (35/--) --
Industrial -- -- -- (8/--) --
Total -- (13/--) -- -- --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- 15 (11/23) -- --
Commercial -- 28 (30/22) -- --
Industrial -- 22 (42/15) -- --
Total -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) -- -- (10/--)
Moderate Achievable
Total -- (8/--) -- -- (29/--) --
gas)'.
i
ii
2009).
iii
60
Their Implications for Mississippii
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Mississippi has been evaluated three
times – twice at the regional and once at the state level. In addition to evaluating this
existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Mississippi. In total,
Mississippi’s forecasted AEO 2009 consumption in each sector is similar to the East
South Central census region, where commercial consumption increases slightly more
than residential, while industrial consumption has a flat trajectory for electricity and a
declining forecast for natural gas. Moderate or maximum achievable potentials in
Mississippi could bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007 levels for all sectors.

savings exist in Mississippi. The full development of these nearly pollution free
Potential
61
commercial sectors. The industrial sector has slightly larger savings potential. Likewise,
Meta-Review Results
An estimate for potential savings in the state of Mississippi can be made by relying on the
overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show potential savings for
the state of Mississippi out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the
the amount consumed by 343,000 Mississippi households in 2006.ii The residential,
commercial, and industrial sectors contribute about equally.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Mississippi, by Sector
62
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Mississippi, by Sector and Type
is also approximately the energy produced by slightly less than one power plant.iii This
reduction is about 11.6% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020.
While the forecast anticipates industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption
in 2007, residential and commercial sectors drive Mississippi’s future electricity
consumption. Maximum achievable potential for the residential and commercial sectors
could bring consumption in 2020 back to 2007 levels. See Figure 3.
63
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Mississippi, by Sector and Type
Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario about 11 trillion Btu
and is about 7.5% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Mississippi in 2020. The
forecast for natural gas predicts a consumption increase in residential and commercial
sectors, but a decline in the industrial sector, where the projected consumption in 2020 is
less than that of 2007. Total natural gas consumption in 2020 as well as commercial and
industrial can be reduced to 2007 levels using the achievable maximum. The residential
sector can achieve 2007 natural gas consumption levels in 2020 only through realizing
technical potential (i.e. not necessarily cost-effective, or economic potential). See Figure
4.
64
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Mississippi Efficiency Potential Studies

Table 1. Mississippi Energy Efficiency Potential Studies
3. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Mississippi
Regional Studies
Regional Commission (ARC).
http://www.arc.gov/index.do?nodeId=3335
This study assesses the potential for cost-effective energy efficiency gains across the 410-county
Appalachian Region’s residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. The study
assesses potential out to 2030 based on the implementation of several transformative energy
policies in 2010. Savings (from a population weighted extract of the Annual Energy Outlook
2008) are estimate to be about 24% over all four sectors by 2030. While the report does not
summarize savings by fuel as a percent of forecast consumption, it does show savings by fuel for
each policy package.
EPRI (2009) provides estimates of efficiency potential at the national and census region
65
State Studies
This study updates a 2003 study on the potential for energy efficiency and renewable
energy policies.
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Mississippi
South Census Appalachia MS
Study Ref EPRI (2009) SEEA (2009) Elliott & Shipley (2005)
End Year 2030 2030 2020
Length (years) 22 20 15
Technical
Residential -- -- --
Commercial -- -- --
Industrial -- -- --
Total -- (31/--) -- --
Economic
Commercial -- -- --
Industrial -- -- --
Total -- (13/--) -- --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- 15 (11/23) --
Commercial -- 28 (30/22) --
Industrial -- 22 (42/15) --
Total -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) --(9/--)
Moderate Achievable
Commercial -- -- --
Industrial -- -- --
Total -- (8/--) -- --
gas)'.
66
i
ii
2009).
iii
67
Their Implications for North Carolinai
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for North Carolina has been estimated
eight times. North Carolina is included in three regional studies. In addition, efficiency
potential has been estimated at the state level five times. In addition to evaluating this
existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for North Carolina. In total, this
allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand
in the district.
The proportion of each sectoral electricity and natural gas potential in North Carolina is
typical of the South Atlantic region. Analysis of the published studies suggests that a
reservoir of cost-effective energy savings exist in North Carolina. The full deployment of
these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in energy
consumption forecasted for the State over the next decade. Such deployment may
minimize capacity-related costs associated with the expansion of electricity and natural
gas infrastructure and supply.
Potential
68
Meta-Review Results
An estimate for potential savings in the state of North Carolina can be made by relying on
for the state of North Carolina out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from
the amount consumed by about 84,700 households in 2006.ii The largest contributions
are from the residential and commercial sectors. These savings could bring consumption
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in North Carolina, by Sector
69
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for North Carolina, by Sector and Type
Under the maximum achievable scenario, the total electricity savings of 58 trillion Btu is
also almost the energy produced by two power plants.iii This reduction is about 11.5% of
the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the AEO 2009
forecasts industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007,
consumption growth from the residential and commercial sectors drive North Carolina’s
future electricity consumption. The industrial sector is projected to consume less in 2020
than in 2007 with the maximum achievable scenario, as is the case for the overall South
Atlantic region. However, projected commercial electricity consumption growth is not
expected to be avoided unless technical potential is achieved. See Figure 3.
70
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for North Carolina, by Sector and Type
7.3% of natural gas consumption forecasted for North Carolina in 2020. North Carolina
has natural gas consumption avoidance that is representative of the average South
Atlantic states. Industrial and total consumption of natural gas reach 2007 levels in 2020
with the maximum achievable scenario, while residential and commercial sectors
experience an increase from 2007 consumption levels in 2020. See Figure 4.
71
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of North Carolina Efficiency Potential Studies
Table 1. North Carolina Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

4. Beck et al. (2002) 2020 20 North Carolina
5. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 North Carolina
6. GDS Associates (2007) 2017 10 North Carolina
7. Tiller, J. (2007) 2020 12 North Carolina
8. Hadley, S. (2003) 2020 20 North Carolina
Regional Studies
state basis.
72
State Studies
• Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of North Carolina
energy policies.
• GDS Associates. (2007). A Study of the Feasibility of Energy Efficiency as an
Eligible Resource as Part of a Renewable Portfolio Standard for the State of North
Carolina: North Carolina Utilities Commission.
GDS Associates (2007) was designed to estimate the level of energy efficiency that is
both cost-effective and achievable for determining whether or not energy efficiency
should be included as a source for a Renewable Portfolio Standard in North Carolina.
The study found that the achievable cost-effective efficiency potential was 14% of
forecast sales in 2017, much higher than the 2.5% of sales that will be expected from
73
energy efficiency as anticipated under a 10% renewable generation requirement in 2017
(efficiency is supposed to be a max of 25% of the renewable source). While this study
projects program and participant costs (with a levelized cost of 2.9 cents per kwh saved)
to achieve the RPS savings of 2.5%, it does not present program costs for the efficiency
potential presented.
• Tiller, J. (2007). Evaluation of Energy Efficiency Opportunities for North
Carolina Buildings and Industrial Facilities. Prepared for the North Carolina State
Energy Office.
Tiller (2007) provides a basis for estimating how much energy can be saved in North
Carolina’s residential, commercial, and industrial sectors through aggressive
implementation of energy efficiency measures. The analysis considers three market
penetration scenarios - low, medium, and high - depending on the return on investment
(from a customer or investor standpoint). Those measures with higher rates of return will
achieve a higher market penetration. Under the low market penetration scenario, energy
savings are 2.3% and electricity savings are 2.4% in 2020; under the high penetration
scenario, energy savings are 12.3% and electricity savings are 16.3% in 2020.
• Hadley, S. 2003. The Potential for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy in
North Carolina. Oak Ridge National Laboratory.
http://www.ornl.gov/~webworks/cppr/y2007/rpt/116643.pdf
Hadley (2003) provides an initial estimate of the potential for energy efficiency and
renewable energy in North Carolina using an extraction from the South Atlantic Census
Division results from NEMS. The finding is that there is substantial available cost-
effective savings without fiscal policies, like subsidies or tax incentives. Estimates of
improved consumer adoption based on changes in perception/marketing are modeled by
changing the discount rate input to the NEMS model - based on the Moderate scenario of
the Clean Energy Future study (IWG, 2000).
74
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of North Carolina
TN, NC,
South
Appalachia SC, GA, NC NC NC NC NC
Census
FL, AL
Beck et GDS Beck et Elliott &
EPRI SEEA Tiller, J. Hadley,
Study Ref al. Associates al. Shipley
(2009) (2009) (2007) S. (2003)
(2002) (2007) (2002) (2005)
End Year 2030 2030 2020 2017 2020 2020 2020 2020
Length
22 20 20 10 12 20 20 15
(years)
Technical
Residential -- -- -- -- (40/--) -- -- -- --
Commercial -- -- -- -- (32/--) -- -- -- --
Industrial -- -- -- -- (24/--) -- -- -- --
Total -- (31/--) -- -- -- (33/--) -- -- -- --
Economic
Residential -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Commercial -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Industrial -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Total -- (13/--) -- -- -- -- -- -- --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- 15 (11/23) -- -- (20/--) -- 18 (20/--) -- --
Commercial -- 28 (30/22) -- -- (22/--) -- 11 (16/--) -- --
Industrial -- 22 (42/15) -- -- (18/--) -- -- -- --
Total -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) -- -- (20/--) 12 (16/--) -- -- --(8/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- -- -- (14/--) -- (17/--) -- 5 (7/--) -- --
Commercial -- -- -- (14/--) -- (12/--) -- 4 (6/--) -- --
Industrial -- -- -- (15/--) -- (12/--) -- -- -- --
Total -- (8/--) -- -- (14/--) -- (14/--) 9 (11/--) -- -- (23/--) --
i
ii
2009).
iii
75
Their Implications for Oklahomai
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Oklahoma has been estimated five
times. It is included in the EPRI (2009) estimate for the South Census region, and
efficiency potential is evaluated at the state level by Elliott & Shipley (2005). In
addition, efficiency potential has been estimated for two of Oklahoma’s electric utilities.
In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the
State of Oklahoma. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy
efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State.
Oklahoma’s total consumption is forecasted in the AEO 2009 to decrease by about 70

trillion Btu. The forecasted consumption in the residential sector decreases by 5.1% but
the most significant decrease is in the industrial sector by 11.8%. A slight increase of
1.6% is forecasted in the commercial sector.

savings exist in Oklahoma. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free
Potential
76
Figure 1 shows the largest savings potential is from the industrial sector with the
maximum achievable potential case. The energy efficiency savings from electricity is
also predicted to exceed that of natural gas.
Meta-Review Results
An estimate for potential savings in Oklahoma can be made by relying on the overall
state of Oklahoma out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the
the amount consumed by over 425,000 Oklahoma households in 2006.ii The largest
contribution is from the residential and commercial sectors. These savings could bring
consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Oklahoma, by Sector
77
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Oklahoma, by Sector and Type
is also about the energy produced by slightly less than one power plant.iii This reduction
is about 12% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. Electricity
consumption is forecasted to remain almost the same across all sectors with the exception
of the commercial sector which shows a slight increase of about 10 trillion Btu. While
the AEO 2009 already forecasts industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than
consumption in 2007, growth in consumption from the residential and commercial sectors
drive Oklahoma’s future electricity consumption. Achievable potential could bring
consumption in 2020 near 2007 levels. See Figure 3.
78
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Oklahoma, by Sector and Type
and is 7.6% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Oklahoma in 2020. Natural gas
consumption is forecasted to show no major variations across all sectors, but a slight
decrease of about 10 trillion Btu in the industrial sector is expected (see Figure 4). Both
the moderate and maximum achievable potentials bring consumption in 2020 to less than
2007 levels for the residential, industrial, commercial, and total sectors. See Figure 4.
79
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Oklahoma Efficiency Potential Studies
Table 1. Oklahoma Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Georgia
7. OG&E (2008) 2018 10 Georgia Power Service Territory
8. PSO (2008). (2007) 2010 3 Georgia Power Service Territory
Regional Studies
State Studies
80
energy policies.
Substate Studies
• OG&E Energy Efficiency Potential Study (2008). Technical, Economic and
Achievable Potentials for the Residential, Commercial and Industrial Customer
Base. Prepared by Frontier Associates LLC for Oklahoma Gas & Electric.
http://www.occeweb.com/Divisions/PUD/Collaborative/OGE_EnergyEfficiencyP
otential_FinalReport%2010-02-08.pdf
OG&E (2008) examines the potential for Oklahoma Gas and Electric Company to reduce
electric energy use and lower peak demand through energy efficiency initiatives. Savings
detail (energy savings and demand reduction) is provided on estimates by sector and end-
use. The study finds that the maximum achievable potential by 2018 is 8% of forecast
sales.
• PSO Energy Efficiency Potential Study (2008). Technical, Economic and
Achievable Potentials for the Residential, Commercial and Industrial Customer
Base. Prepared by Frontier Associates LLC for Public Service Company of
Oklahoma.
PSO (2008) examines the potential for Public Service Company of Oklahoma to reduce
electric energy use and lower peak demand through energy efficiency initiatives. Savings
detail (energy savings and demand reduction) is provided on estimates by sector and end-
use. The study finds that the maximum achievable potential by 2018 is 8% of forecast
sales.
81
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Oklahoma
OGE service PSCO service
South Census OK
territory territory
Elliott &
Study Ref EPRI (2009) OG&E (2008) PSO (2008)
Shipley (2005)
End Year 2030 2020 2018 2018
Length
22 15 10 10
(years)
Technical
Residential -- -- -- (37/--) -- (35/--)
Commercial -- -- -- (30/--) -- (32/--)
Industrial -- -- -- (32/--) -- (33/--)
Total -- (31/--) -- -- (33/--) -- (34/--)
Economic
Residential -- -- -- (27/--) -- (27/--)
Commercial -- -- -- (20/--) -- (22/--)
Industrial -- -- -- (21/--) -- (22/--)
Total -- (13/--) -- -- (23/--) -- (24/--)
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- -- -- (7/--) -- (7/--)
Commercial -- -- -- (6/--) -- (7/--)
Industrial -- -- -- (11/--) -- (8/--)
Total -- (11/--) -- (10/--) -- (8/--) -- (8/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- -- -- (3/--) -- (2/--)
Commercial -- -- -- (2/--) -- (3/--)
Industrial -- -- -- (4/--) -- (4/--)
Total -- (8/--) -- -- (3/--) -- (3/--)
gas)'.
i
ii
2009).
iii
82
Their Implications for South Carolinai
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for South Carolina has been estimated
six times. South Carolina is included in three regional studies. In addition, efficiency
potential has been estimated twice at the state level and once at the substate utility level.
In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for
South Carolina. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency
to offset growth and demand in the district.
One notable difference between South Carolina and its census region is the projected
decline of the total natural gas consumption in the State while the South Atlantic region
total natural gas consumption is projected to increase. The projected electricity
consumption growth rate for South Carolina is less than that of the South Atlantic region.
The proportion of the sectoral savings under the maximum achievable scenario varies
from the regional proportions. In South Atlantic, the industrial sector has smallest
proportion of savings, while in South Carolina it presents the largest avoided electrical
consumption. While industrial consumption increases under the max achievable case
under electricity, it still presents the highest energy efficiency potential in South Carolina.

savings exist in South Carolina. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free
Potential
83
commercial sectors. The industrial sector has slightly larger savings potential. Likewise,
Meta-Review Results
An estimate for potential savings in South Carolina can be made by relying on the overall
state of South Carolina out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the
the amount consumed by about 581,000 South Carolina households in 2006.ii These
savings could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2, with about
equal contributions from the individual sectors.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in South Carolina, by Sector
84
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for South Carolina, by Sector and Type
about the energy produced by more than one power plant.iii This reduction is about 12%
of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. Under the maximum
achievable scenario, the residential sector, commercial sector, and total electricity
consumption in 2020 are lower than that of 2007. The industrial sector has modest gains
in consumption under the maximum achieveable scenario in 2020 when compared to
2007 consumption. Under the technical achievable scenario, the industrial sector
consumption in 2020 can be less than that of 2007. See Figure 3.
85
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for South Carolina, by Sector and Type
Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is about 8.7 trillion Btu
and is about 7.5% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Georgia in 2020. Under this
scenario, the largest consumption avoidance occurs from the industrial sector. The
commercial sector provides a slight reduction, while the residential sector provides a
slight increase in 2020 consumption when compared to 2007. See Figure 4.
References
(2009).
86
Appendix: Summary of South Carolina Efficiency Potential Studies
Table 1. South Carolina Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

4. Beck et al. (2002) 2020 20 South Carolina
5. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 South Carolina
6. GDS Associates (2007) 2017 10 CEPCI Service Territory, South
Carolina
Regional Studies
state basis.
87
State Studies
• Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of South Carolina
energy policies.
Substate Studies
• GDS Associates. (2007). Electric Energy Efficiency Potential Study for Central Electric
Power Cooperative, Inc. Prepared for the Electric Cooperatives of South Carolina,
September.
Estimate the technical and achievable potential for electric energy savings from energy
efficiency in the CEPCI service territory (the Electric Cooperatives of South Carolina).
The study found that with a broad selection of measures across sectors, there is a
significant potential for electric energy efficiency - on par with similar studies.
88
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of South Carolina
TN, NC, CEPCI
South
Appalachia SC, GA, SC SC Service
Census
FL, AL Territory, SC
Elliott & GDS
EPRI SEEA Beck et al. Beck et al.
Study Ref Shipley Associates
(2009) (2009) (2002) (2002)
(2005) (2007)
End Year 2030 2030 2020 2020 2020 2017
Length
22 20 20 20 15 10
(years)
Technical
Residential -- -- -- -- -- --
Commercial -- -- -- -- -- --
Industrial -- -- -- -- -- --
Total -- (31/--) -- -- -- -- --
Economic
Residential -- -- -- -- -- --
Commercial -- -- -- -- -- --
Industrial -- -- -- -- -- --
Total -- (13/--) -- -- -- -- --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- 15 (11/23) -- -- -- -- (22/--)
Commercial -- 28 (30/22) -- -- -- -- (23/--)
Industrial -- 22 (42/15) -- -- -- -- (13/--)
Total -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) -- -- --(8/--) -- (21/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- -- -- (14/--) -- -- -- (12/--)
Commercial -- -- -- (14/--) -- -- -- (15/--)
Industrial -- -- -- (15/--) -- -- -- (8/--)
Total -- (8/--) -- -- (14/--) -- (23/--) -- -- (12/--)
i
ii
2009).
iii
89
Their Implications for Tennesseei
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Tennessee has been estimated six
times. Tennessee is included in three regional studies. In addition to evaluating this
existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Tennessee. In total,
Tennessee’s AEO 2009 forecasted consumption in each sector is similar to the East South
Central census region, where commercial consumption increases the most, flowed by
residential. On the other hand, industrial consumption is forecasted to decrease where its
natural gas consumption declines the most.

savings exist in Tennessee. The full development of these nearly pollution free
Potential
commercial, and industrial sectors. In contrast, energy efficiency savings from electricity
is predicted to exceed that of natural gas.
90
Meta-Review Results
An estimate for potential savings in the state of Tennessee can be made by relying on the
the state of Tennessee out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the
the amount consumed by over 794,000 Tennessee households in 2006.ii Each sector
contributes a similar amount to the electricity saving potential.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Tennessee, by Sector
91
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Tennessee, by Sector and Type
approximately the energy produced by one and a half power plants.iii This reduction is
forecast anticipates industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in 2007,
residential and commercial sectors drive Tennessee’s future electricity consumption.
Maximum achievable potential for the residential sector could bring consumption in 2020
near 2007 levels; however, projected commercial electricity consumption growth is likely
unavoidable unless some technical potential is achieved. This would likely require the
implementation of more vigorous deployment policies. See Figure 3.
92
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Tennessee, by Sector and Type
Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is 0.0122 quads and is
7.2% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Tennessee in 2020. The forecast for
natural gas predicts a consumption in increase in residential and commercial sectors, but
a decline in the industrial sector, where the projected consumption in 2020 is less than
that of 2007. Only total natural gas consumption in 2020 can be reduced to 2007 levels
using the achievable maximum. The residential sector can achieve 2007 natural gas
consumption levels in 2020 only through realizing technical potential (i.e. not necessarily
cost-effective, or economic potential). The forecast growth in commercial sector, on the
other hand, can be offset by exploiting economic potential. See Figure 4.
93
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Tennessee Efficiency Potential Studies

Table 1. Tennessee Energy Efficiency Potential Studies
4. Beck et al. (2002) 2020 20 Tennessee
5. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Tennessee
6. EPRI (2002) 2023 20 Tennessee Valley Authority
Regional Studies
state basis.
94
State Studies
• Beck et al. 2002 included an individual estimate for the state of Tennessee
energy policies.
Substate Studies
• EPRI. 2002. Energy Efficiency Technology Assessment for the Tennessee Valley
Region, EPRI, Palo Alto, CA, and Tennessee Valley Authority, Chattanooga, TN.
December. 1007597.
This report assesses the potential for Texas to meet its future energy service needs
through energy efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy. The study finds that
aggressive efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy policies can cost-
effectively (at a levelized cost of 4.5 cents per kwh) help Texas cover all of the projected
95
growth in peak demand by 2013. These policies could also reduce consumption from
forecast by 8% in 2013 and 22% in 2023.
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Tennessee

South TN, NC, SC,
Appalachia TN TN TVA
Census GA, FL, AL
EPRI SEEA Beck et al. Beck et al. Elliott & Shipley EPRI
Study Ref (2009) (2009) (2002) (2002) (2005) (2002)
End Year 2030 2030 2020 2020 2020 2023
Length
22 20 20 20 15 20
(years)
Technical
Residential -- -- -- -- -- --
Commercial -- -- -- -- -- --
Industrial -- -- -- -- -- --
Total -- (31/--) -- -- -- -- --
Economic
Residential -- -- -- -- -- --
Commercial -- -- -- -- -- --
Industrial -- -- -- -- -- --
Total -- (13/--) -- -- -- -- --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- 15 (11/23) -- -- -- --
Commercial -- 28 (30/22) -- -- -- --
Industrial -- 22 (42/15) -- -- -- --
Total -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) -- -- --(13/--) -- (22/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- -- -- (14/--) -- -- --
Commercial -- -- -- (14/--) -- -- --
Industrial -- -- -- (15/--) -- -- --
Total -- (8/--) -- -- (14/--) -- (23/--) --
i
ii
2009).
iii
96
Their Implications for Texasi
Over the past decade, the energy efficiency potential in Texas has been evaluated in five
reports - once as part of a regional study, three times at the state level, and once in a
utility study. In addition to evaluating this existing literature, EIA forecasts have been
created for the State of Texas. In total, this allows an assessment of the potential for
energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the State.
Texas is the only state in the West South Central census region whose total forecasted
AEO 2009 energy consumption increases by about 323 trillion Btu from 2009 to 2020.
Consumption in the residential and commercial sectors increases by 14.8% and 7.3%
respectively, while the industrial sector shows a slight decrease of 0.3% from 2009 to
2020. Moderate or maximum achievable potentials in Texas increase electricity
consumption in the residential and commercial sectors but the industrial sector could
bring consumption in 2020 to less than 2007 levels. In the case of natural gas under both
achievable potentials, consumption is forecasted to increase for the commercial sector but
decrease below 2007 consumption for the residential and the industrial sectors.
Analysis of published studies of the potential for energy efficiency improvements in the
South suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective opportunities exists in Texas. The full
deployment of these nearly pollution-free opportunities could largely offset the growth in
energy consumption that is forecasted for the State over the next decade, deferring the
need to expand electricity and natural gas supplies.
Potential
97
Figure 1 shows the dominance of the savings potential by the industrial sector under the
maximum achievable potential case. The energy efficiency savings from electricity and
natural gas are similar.
Meta-Review Results
An estimate for potential savings in the state of Texas can be made by relying on the
the state of Texas out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the
the amount consumed by over 18 million Texas households in 2006.ii The largest
contribution is from the commercial sector, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Texas, by Sector
98
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Texas, by Sector and Type
Total electricity savings under the maximum achievable scenario of 159 trillion Btu is
also about the energy produced by over five power plants.iii This reduction is about
11.4% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. In all the sectors, an
increase in electricity consumption of about 210 trillion Btu is expected to represent a
24.7% increase in the commercial sector, 13.3% in the residential sector and 14.2% in the
industrial sector. Achievable potential for the residential sector could bring consumption
in 2020 near 2007 levels; however, projected commercial electricity consumption growth
is not expected to be avoided even if the technical potential is achieved. See Figure 3.
99
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Texas, by Sector and Type
Total natural gas savings under the maximum achievable scenario is over 135 trillion Btu
and is 7.3% of natural gas consumption forecasted for Texas in 2020. Industrial
consumption drives the total consumption of natural gas for Texas (see Figure 4).
Natural gas consumption is also forecasted to increase by 160 trillion Btu, representing an
11.5% increase in the commercial sector, 8.9% increase in the residential sector, and a
15.8% increase in the industrial sector. The moderate and maximum achievable
potentials fail to bring consumption in 2020 to be less than 2007 levels for any sectors.
See Figure 4.
100
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Texas Efficiency Potential Studies
Table 1. Texas Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

2. Itron, Inc. (2008) 2018 10 Texas
3. Elliott, N. et al. (2007) 2023 15 Texas
4. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Tennessee
5. KEMA (2004) 2014 10 San Antonio, Texas
Regional Studies
State Studies
• Elliott, Neal, Maggie Eldridge, Anna M. Shipley, John “Skip” Laitner, Steven
Nadel, Alison Silverstein, Bruce Hedman, and Mike Sloan. 2007. Potential for
Energy Efficiency, Demand Response, and Onsite Renewable Energy to Meet
Texas’s Growing Electricity Needs. American Council for an Energy Efficient
Economy, Report E073. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e073.htm
101
This report assesses the potential for Texas to meet its future energy service needs
through energy efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy. The study finds that
aggressive efficiency, demand response, and renewable energy policies can cost-
effectively (at a levelized cost of 4.5 cents per kwh) help Texas cover all of the projected
growth in peak demand by 2013. These policies could also reduce consumption from
forecast by 8% in 2013 and 22% in 2023.
• Itron, Inc. 2008. Assessment of the Feasible and Achievable Levels of Electricity
Savings from Investor Owned Utilities in Texas: 2009-2018, Final. Prepared for
the Public Utility Commission of Texas, December.
http://www.puc.state.tx.us/electric/reports/index.cfm
Itron (2008) sought to estimate the technical, economic, and achievable energy efficiency
potential for the state of Texas and for the larger investor owned Texas utilities and using
achievable potential, assess the reasonableness of the newly set energy saving goals for
2010 and 2015. The study finds that utilities will have difficulty meeting the goals for
2010, but can meet them later with cost-effective programs. The study also shows that
changes in regulations that allow more flexible approaches to demand side management
programs can increase savings.
• Elliott, N. and A. Shipley. 2005. Impacts of Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy on Natural Gas Markets: Updated and Expanded Analysis. American
Council for an Energy Efficient Economy Report E052.
energy policies.
Substate Studies
• KEMA. 2004. City Public Service Technical and Economic Energy Efficiency
Potential Study. Prepared for City Public Service, San Antonio, TX. October.
http://www.cleanenergyfortexas.org/downloads/KEMA_EE_2004.pdf
KEMA (2004) was commissioned to develop a comprehensive energy efficiency plan for
the utility City Public Service (CPS), an electric and gas utility serving San Antonio and
some surrounding areas. KEMA (2004) found that both the base efficiency scenario
(with CPS' current program funding) and the advanced efficiency scenario (with about an
80% increase in program funding) are cost effective with a TRC of 1.97 and 1.96,
respectively. All measures in all years that are applied in this study have a first year cost
of less than $.03/kwh except residential new construction, which ranges from $0.04/kwh
to $0.074/kwh depending on the year and scenario (base or advanced).
102
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Texas
South San
TX TX TX
Census Antonio TX
Itron,
EPRI Elliott, N. et Elliott & KEMA
Study Ref Inc.
(2009) al. (2007) Shipley (2005) (2004)
(2008)
End Year 2030 2018 2023 2020 2014
Length (years) 22 10 15 15 10
Technical
Residential -- -- (39/--) -- -- --(30/--)
Commercial -- -- (19/--) -- -- --(18/--)
Industrial -- -- (12/--) -- -- --(13/--)
Total -- (31/--) -- -- -- --(23/--)
Economic
Residential -- -- (23/--) -- (32/--) -- --(17/--)
Commercial -- -- (17/--) -- (39/--) -- --(11/--)
Industrial -- -- (11/--) -- (26/--) -- --(8/--)
Total -- (13/--) -- -- -- --(14/--)
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- -- -- -- --(1/--)
Commercial -- -- -- -- --(0.8/--)
Industrial -- -- -- -- --(2/--)
Total -- (11/--) -- (7/--) -- -- (10/--) --(1/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- -- -- -- --(0.6/--)
Commercial -- -- -- -- --(0.4/--)
Industrial -- -- -- -- --(1/--)
Total -- (8/--) -- (5/--) -- (11/--) -- --(0.5/--)
i
ii
2009).
iii
103
Their Implications for Virginiai
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for Virginia has been estimated four
times – twice each at the region and state level. In addition to evaluating this existing
literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of Virginia. In total, this allows
an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and demand in the
State.
The proportion of Virginia’s forecasted avoided electricity consumption by sector is very

similar to those forecasted for the South Atlantic census region, where the commercial
sector provides the largest proportion of savings, followed by the residential sector. The
industrial sector provides more modest savings in comparison to the other two sectors.
savings exist in Virginia. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free
Potential
Figure 1 shows the main contributors to the savings potential are the residential and
commercial sectors. Meanwhile, energy efficiency savings from electricity is predicted
to exceed that of natural gas.
104
Meta-Review Results
A useful estimate for potential savings in the state of Virginia can be made by relying on
for the state of Virginia out to 2020, assuming the average percent per year from the
the amount consumed by 954,000 Virginia households in 2006.ii These savings could
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Virginia, by Sector
105
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for Virginia, by Sector and Type
about the energy produced by one and a half power plants.iii This reduction is about
11.6% of the projected AEO 2009 electricity consumption for 2020. While the AEO
2009 already forecasts commercial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption in
2007, growth in consumption from the residential and industrial sectors drive Virginia’s
future electricity consumption. With the maximum achievable case, the total electricity
consumption in Virginia in 2020 is virtually unchanged from 2007 levels. See Figure 3.
106
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for Virginia, by Sector and Type
The avoided consumption of natural gas under the maximum achievable scenario is
projected to be 16.7 trillion Btu or about 7.3% of the total projected natural gas
consumption in 2020 for Virginia. Under all scenarios, the industrial sector consumption
in 2020 is less than 2007 levels. Both the residential and commercial sectors consume
slightly more in 2020 than in 2007 under the maximum achievable scenario. The total
natural gas consumption under the maximum achievable scenario in 2020 is
approximately at 2007 levels, showing that the industrial sector reductions are offset by
the increase in the residential and commercial sectors. See Figure 4.
107
References
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of Virginia Efficiency Potential Studies
Table 1. Virginia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

5. ACEE et al. (2008) 2025 18 Virginia
6. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 Virginia
Regional Studies
108
State Studies
energy policies.
• American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Summit Blue Consulting,

ICF International, and Synapse Energy Economics. 2008. Energizing Virginia:
Efficiency First. ACEEE Report No. E085. http://www.aceee.org/pubs/e085.htm
This study estimates the potential for energy efficiency to reduce forecast electricity
needs in Virginia out to 2025. The report was developed because the state of Virginia
appeared to be moving towards a favorable policy environment for types of policies
included, and the state was not already a leader in the area. Low, medium, and high
(degrees of aggressiveness) policy potentials are examined. Under the medium policy
scenario, the study finds that efficiency can replace 8% of the forecast by 2015 and 19%
by 2025.
109
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Virginia
South Census Appalachia VA VA
ACEEE et al. Elliott & Shipley
Study Ref EPRI (2009) SEEA (2009)
(2008) (2005)
End Year 2030 2030 2025 2020
Length (years) 22 20 18 15
Technical
Total -- (31/--) -- -- --
Economic
Residential -- -- -- (26/--) --
Commercial -- -- -- (28/--) --
Industrial -- -- -- (25/--) --
Total -- (13/--) -- -- (31/--) --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- 15 (11/23) -- (25/--) --
Commercial -- 28 (30/22) -- (29/--) --
Industrial -- 22 (42/15) -- (27/--) --
Total -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) -- (27/--) --(11/--)
Moderate Achievable
Residential -- -- -- (18/--) --
Commercial -- -- -- (21/--) --
Industrial -- -- -- (19/--) --
Total -- (8/--) -- -- (20/--) --
Savings shown as percent of end year consumption for: 'all fuels electricity/natural gas)'.
i
ii
2009).
iii
110
Their Implications for West Virginiai
Over the past decade, energy efficiency potential for West Virginia has been estimated
three times. West Virginia is included in two regional studies, and a state estimate for
West Virginia was developed by Elliott & Shipley (2005). In addition to evaluating this
existing literature, EIA forecasts have been created for the State of West Virginia. In
total, this allows an assessment of the potential for energy efficiency to offset growth and
West Virginia’s forecasted consumption trends in each sector are similar to the South
Atlantic census region. For the avoided electricity consumption in the maximum
achievable case, the proportions of gains from the industrial sector in West Virginia are
larger than those for the South Atlantic region. However, the proportion of gains from
the commercial sector is projected to be less than those for the South Atlantic region.

savings exist in West Virginia. The full deployment of these nearly pollution-free
Potential
Figure 1 shows the largest contributor to the savings potential is the industrial sector.
Energy efficiency savings from electricity is also predicted to exceed that of natural gas.
111
Meta-Review Results
A useful estimate for potential savings in the state of West Virginia can be made by
relying on the overall average of potential savings for the South. Figures 1-4 show
potential savings for the state of West Virginia out to 2020, assuming the average percent
per year from the summarized studies presented in the main body of the report.
industrial sectors are achieved, savings could be about 13 trillion Btu by 2020 or about
the amount consumed by 255,000 West Virginia households in 2006.ii These savings
could bring consumption below 2007 levels, as shown in Figure 2.
Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in West Virginia, by Sector
112
Figure 3. Electricity Savings Potential for West Virginia, by Sector and Type
about the energy produced by slightly less than half a power plant.iii This reduction is
AEO 2009 already forecasts industrial consumption in 2020 to be less than consumption
in 2007, growth in consumption from the residential and commercial sectors drive West
Virginia’s future electricity consumption. The maximum achievable potential could
bring consumption in 2020 to about 2007 levels or less for all sectors except the
commercial sector. See Figure 3.
113
Figure 4. Natural Gas Savings Potential for West Virginia, by Sector and Type
The total avoided natural gas consumption is projected to be 7.8 trillion Btu for the
maximum achievable scenario, or about 7.3% of the projected natural gas consumption in
2020. The maximum achievable scenario will result in decreased 2020 industrial sector
consumption of natural gas to less than 2007 levels; however, residential and commercial
sector consumption will increase modestly. Overall, the industrial sector decrease in
consumption outweighs the gains from residential and commercial sectors, allowing the
total consumption of natural gas in West Virginia to fall below 2007 levels in 2020 with
the maximum achievable scenario. See Figure 4.
114
References
Chandler, J. and M. Brown. (2009). Meta-review of Efficiency Potential Studies and Assessment
of Implications for the South.
(2009).
Appendix: Summary of West Virginia Efficiency Potential Studies

Table 1. West Virginia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies
3. Elliott & Shipley (2005) 2020 15 West Virginia
Regional Studies
115
State Studies
energy policies.
116
Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of West Virginia
South Census Appalachia WV
Study Ref EPRI (2009) SEEA (2009) Elliott & Shipley (2005)
End Year 2030 2030 2020
Length
22 20 15
(years)
Technical
Commercial -- -- --
Industrial -- -- --
Total -- (31/--) -- --
Economic
Commercial -- -- --
Industrial -- -- --
Total -- (13/--) -- --
Maximum Achievable
Residential -- 15 (11/23) --
Commercial -- 28 (30/22) --
Industrial -- 22 (42/15) --
Total -- (11/--) 24 (27/14) -- (10/--)
Moderate Achievable
Commercial -- -- --
Industrial -- -- --
Total -- (8/--) -- --
gas)'.
i
ii
2009).
iii
117

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Working Paper Series

State-Specific Summaries of the

Georgia Institute of Technology

Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Alabama, by Sector

Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total

Appendix: Summary of Alabama Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for studies and publication dates.

Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total

Appendix: Summary of Arkansas Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for publications and publication dates.

Table 1. Arkansas Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

The maximum achievable electricity potential in the District of Columbia is unreflective

Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total

Appendix: Summary of the District of Columbia Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for publications and publication dates.

Table 1. District of Columbia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the District of Columbia

Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total

Appendix: Summary of Delaware Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for studies and publication dates.

Table 2. Summary of Studies for the State of Delaware

Florida’s overall maximum achievable electricity potential shows a smaller proportion of

Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total

Appendix: Summary of Florida Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for publications and publication dates.

Table 1. Florida Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

Figure 2. Maximum Achievable Electricity Potential in Georgia, by Sector

Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total Natural Gas

See Table 1 for publications and publication dates.

Table 1. Georgia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total

Appendix: Summary of Kentucky Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for studies and publication dates.

Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total

Appendix: Summary of Louisiana Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for publications and publication dates.

Table 1. Louisiana Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

Maryland’s overall total projected electricity consumption in 2020 approximates 2007

Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity

Figure 4c. Industrial Figure 4d. Total

Appendix: Summary of Maryland Efficiency Potential Studies

See Table 1 for publications and publication dates.

Table 1. Georgia Energy Efficiency Potential Studies

Analysis of the published studies suggests that a reservoir of cost-effective energy

Figure 3c. Industrial Figure 3d. Total Electricity