SYLLABUS FOR ISYE 2027

Instructor: Richard F. Serfozo ISyE Room 307, Phone 404 984-2305 Oce Hours: 11-12 WF, or in hall before and after class, or by appointment Textbook : Probability and Statistics by T. Hayter, Class Notes via E-mail : Basic Probabilitiy Problems by R. Serfozo,

OUTLINE OF COURSE
Probabilities of Events (Chapter 1 + Notes; 3 weeks) Random experiments, events and probabilities Obtaining probabilities by sampling an experiment Probabilities for equally likely outcomes Counting Principles (combinations and permutations) Conditional Probabilities Independent events; Conditional probability; Bayes theorem Random Variables and Distributions (Chapters 24, + Notes; 5 weeks) Discrete random variables and their distributions Binomial, geometric, negative binomial. . . Continuous random variables and their distributions Uniform, exponential, gamma, normal . . . Poisson processes Expected Values Expectation; mean and variance of random variables; 6-sigma Rule Functions of Random Variables (Notes + Part of Chapter 2; 1 weeks) Expectations of functions of random variables Expected cost functions Deriving distributions of functions of random variables Inventory and Production Models (Notes; 2 week) Inventory and Newsvendor systems Material requirements planning in production Multivariate Distributions (Notes + Parts of Chapters 2, 3; 3 weeks) Probabilities of random vectors

Expected values of functions of random vectors Covariance and correlations Conditional probabilities and expectations Sums of random variables; discounted costs Limiting Averages Laws of large numbers; Central limit theorem Approximations using Normal distribution Basis of Grade: Homework 10%. Three exams 45%. Final exam 45%. Tentative Exam Dates: September 9, October 7, November 18 General Comments The aim of this course is to provide you with some tools to help you make sense out of the nonsense of randomness. You will learn how to do the following: 1. Describe a random experiment and events (based on properties of sets). 2. Compute probabilities of events using several counting principles. 3. Set up random variables to describe phenomena of interest. 4. Compute the probabilities that random variables will equal a certain value or will be in a range of values. This involves sums or integrals of density functions. 5. Identify and use standard types of probability distributions (binomial, geometric, normal). 6. Compute expectations and variances of random variables, and compute correlations between variables. 7. Analyze functions of random variables (e.g., a cost function of a random purchase quantity). 8. Work with several random variables at once (random vectors), and compute conditional probabilities and expectations. 9. Model systems dealing with inventories, parallel processing, production planning, reliability and scheduling. We will dene a number of concepts (e.g., probabilities, expectation) and cover theorems (or rules) for using the concepts. However, the main emphasis will be on solving problems. The examples in the class, in the books discussion and in the homework problems are ostensively dierent and may appear to be a jumbled mess, just like reality. However, they are all related to the basic concepts. The challenge is to be able to identify what approach or techniques apply to the situation at hand. This takes some thought and understanding of the basics. It is dierent than just mechanically manipulating functions and equations (e.g., as in calculus). 2