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( )
,
21 2014 .,
:
(+ )
: ,
(Schedler 2002, 2006, 2009, 2013)
(Diamond 2002; Levitsky, Way 2010; Howard,
Roessler 2006)
80%
?
( 15 ) (Levitsky, Way 2013;
Hadenius, Teorell 2007; Hale 2013; Geddes 1999)
(Hale 2013; Schedler 2006; Kuntz,
Thompson 2009)
() -
. ,
. .
, ,
-
. ,
, ,
,
(, 23)
Credible
commitment
commitment
Factors
weight
Individual
Culture
Strong
Postindustrial
predictors values; better
psychological
adjustment
(Keniston 1968)
Socialization
Collective action
experience
Economic status
Higher
Education;
Humanitarian
experience.
1. Previous political
protest experience
2. Minorities are
organized better
(Anderson &
Mendes 2006,
Swader 2012,
Alesina & Le Ferrara
2004);
Unclear linkage
for AR
Community
volunteerism does not
have any clear impact
on political mobilization
(Ball 2005, Hunter and
Brisbin 2000);
Greater
economic
inequality yields
greater political
inequality (Solt
2008)
Literature on
differential
participation
Weak
Industrial values; Family and
predictors lonely crowd
children (Riesman 1950)
negative /
absent link
:
2013: ,
-
, , ., 2013
2013
..
, 2013:
, ( )
800+ 20112012 . ( )
(S&S, 2013)
77.1
75.8
72.3
72.9
67.8
59.7
64.3
Sector of Work
Employment
Gender
Category
Stalwarts
Casuals
Moscow
Moscow Oblast
Outside Moscow
Private Sector
Government
Social
Employed/Student
Unemployed
Male
Female
88.0
10.9
1.1
66.4
25.3
8.2
74.0
26.0
65.1
34.9
74.0
23.0
3.0
67.7
28.8
3.4
65.6
34.4
57.5
42.5
Politicized Internet
Networks
Personal Protest
Networks
Category
Stalwarts
Casuals
Yes
57.1
45.7
>5
60.2
64.7
15
31.1
22.0
Response
Stalwarts
Casuals
Protest Goals
To End Falsification
Fully Agree
Fully Disgree
56.3
0
40.2
9.9
Fully Agree
65.5
49.5
Fully Disagree
.5
7.8
Fully Agree
Fully Disagree
68.5
4.6
46.2
13.5
Fully Agree
Fully Disagree
Fully Agree
64.0
2.5
62.1
47.0
3.2
47.0
Fully Disagree
.5
4.6
Fully Agree
Fully Disagree
Fully Agree
55.1
2.0
57.6
36.3
2.5
57.6
Fully Disagree
3.0
3.9
Fully Agree
Fully Disagree
Fully Agree
63.1
1.0
36.4
35.7
6.8
24.9
Fully Disagree
7.9
5.0
Timing of Participation
Constancy of
Participation
Early Mobilizer
Late Mobilizer
Stalwart
36
22
Casual
39
247
Timing of Participation
Constancy of
Participation
Early Mobilizer
Late Mobilizer
Stalwart
185
19
Casual
139
103
clear cascade evident in between the first and second events and
then the number of new participants declines dramatically
:
full-time
,
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, ,
(, 21).
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, , (, 62)
,
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,
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,
(, 26)
,
:
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,
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-,
(, 56)
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