Latour 1 Henry Latour Professor Blewett Economic Development 25 October 2013 The Maragoli Study and Economic Consequences

of High Fertility Rates Towards the end of the eighteenth century, Thomas Malthus published the first edition of An Essay on The Principles of Population, which famously encompassed his concerns regarding disproportionate growths in human population with respect to food production. Malthus argued that because mans ability to produce food is surpassed by mans ability to reproduce, outbreaks of widespread famines would occur, affecting the poorest members of society. Although Malthus predictions of the demise of mankind have yet to transpire in the modern day, Malthusian ideas are still relevant today. In 1968, Stanford biologist, Paul Ehrlich published The Population Bomb, which incorporated many Malthusian conceptions. Ehrlich predicted that within a decade from when his writing was published, famines would strike Asia, Africa and South America, killing off as many as one-fifth of the worlds population. In The Elusive Quest for Growth, William Easterly states, In the view of many of us development experts, population control is the elixir that would avoid catastrophic starvation and enable poor nations to become rich (Easterly 87). Easterly recognizes that many development experts believe that lower fertility rates will ameliorate the quality of life in developing countries; however, there is little evidence to validate this belief. Using population studies conducted throughout the twentieth century, this paper will analyze relationships between population growth and economic growth, and examine the effectiveness of contraceptives in developing regions. In the article, Are More People Necessarily a Problem, David Malkoff analyzes population growth in Machakos, a region in Kenya. In 1937, a bureaucrat serving the British Empire sent out an alarming memo, warning British officials that the population of the native people was rapidly expanding, which in effect, was leading to extensive environmental degradation. This memo incorporated a very Malthusian tone, stating,

Latour 2 Every phase of misuse of land is vividly and poignantly displayed in this reserve, the inhabitants of which are rapidly drifting to a state of hopeless and miserable poverty and their land to a parching desert of rocks, stones and sand (Malakoff 544). This ominous warning reached British officials at a time when the Machakos regions population hovered around 250,000 people. This apocalyptic prediction of Machakos future socioeconomic state, however, proved to be inaccurate as time went on. Over the course of seventy years, the populations of the Kenyon regions, Machakos and Nairobi quadrupled, exceeding 1.5 million people today. Despite past predictions, the Machakos population explosion was accompanied with economic growth, somewhat contradicting the Malthusian perspective. Ester Boserup, a Danish Economist and author of the book, The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The Economics of Agrarian Change Under Population, proposes a theory suggesting that rises in population density evoke something she refers to as intensification that is, the use of new technologies and more labor to attain greater harvests from less land. Intrigued by Boserups theory, Economists Mary Tiffen and Michael Mortimore embarked on a two-year study, testing the relevance of the intensification theory with the Machakos phenomenon. The researchers found that over time, Machakos farmers developed and utilized innovative technologies to attain larger crops. Some of these new technologies included the construction of terraces to control erosion, the use of animal fertilizers to rejuvenate soils, and the implementation of food trade in burgeoning markets in nearby Nairobi. Tiffen and Mortimore attributed much of Machakos economic restoration to rising populations, arguing that rising populations created a rich milieu for innovation, information-sharing, and political involvement. Also, population growth prevalent in nearby Nairobi facilitated demand for food harvested in Machakos, creating jobs for young people in the region. The additional income generated by high seasonal employment rates allowed young Machakos farmers to invest in capital improvements. This increase in economic stability resulted in a decline in fertility rates, and allowed more familys to invest in their childrens education (Malakoff 545). Although there are a lot of arguments and evidence suggesting population is detrimental to economic growth, Tiffen and Mortimores research on Machakos reveals

Latour 3 the opposite. Rising populations in Machakos from 1930 until 1990 allowed for technological advances in farming, which resulted in more productive farms and economies, and greener landscapes. With economic stability, the overall quality of life of Machakos inhabitants improved and the researchers attribute much of this to Machakos population explosion. Despite Tiffen and Mortimores findings in Machakos that suggest population expansion benefits economic growth, one should not assume that these results are true across the board (Malakoff 545). In the The Elusive Quest for Growth, William Easterly examines the relationship between population growth and per capita economic growth for all countries between 1960 and 1992. Through the research, it is reavealed that for all countries, GDP per capita growth varied between -2% and 7% and population growth between 1% and 4%. If population growth reduced per capita economic growth on a one-to-one ratio, it could only explain about one-third of the variation in per capita income. Given this information, Easterly concludes that there is no statistically significant evidence validating the theory that population growth is negatively associated with per capita income growth (Easterly 92). Despite these statistical findings, Easterly argues that there are several social benefits with having high fertility rates. Government provided social benefits such as social security payments, unemployment, healthcare, public education, along with many others, are more stable when a country has high fertility rates an additional child to pay taxes provides funds to support these programs. The second benefit of high fertility rates that Easterly discusses is the genius principle. The genius principle relies simply on the rules of probability; the more babies there are, the greater the chances a brilliant mind like Einstein, Bill Gates, or Steve Jobs is born. A third benefit of a large population pertains to the opportunity costs of implementing a new idea. Easterly uses the installation of nationwide Internet as an example to help explain these costs, stating The one-time cost of setting up the Internet will be less burdensome the more people there are to share it, and the benefit of the Internet increases the more people there are (Easterly 94). Despite the evidence indicating that a relationship between population growth and economic growth does not exist, the looming fear of overpopulation remains a central concern of development efforts. In 1994, the International Conference on Population and

Latour 4 Development, an event sponsored by the United Nations, gathered together in Cairo to stress the importance of population control, urging, The international community to moveto establish an efficient coordination system and global, regional and subregional facilities for the procurement of contraceptives and other commodities essential to the reproductive health programs of developing countries with economies in transition (Easterly 89). While contraceptive programs, like the one discussed in the excerpt above, may increase the availability of contraceptives for populations of developing countries, the programs will be ineffective unless there is demand. In the chapter, Cash for Condoms, in The Elusive Quest for Growth, Easterly draws attention to the fact that condoms are just like any other consumable good supplied in the free market and can be purchased internationally for about thirty-three cents a piece. When considering the price of a condom in retrospect with the costs of having a child, it is obvious that a condom is far less expensive, especially in the short run. Given this knowledge, Easterly argues that if there were high demand for condoms in developing countries, this form of contraception would already be readily available (Easterly 90). The lack of demand for modern contraception in developing regions transpires in the portrayal of the Maragoli people portrayed in the 1976 Institute of Developmental Studies film, Maragoli. At the beginning of the film, the narrator, Joseph Sennyoya, informs the viewer that there are two family planning clinics located just outside the Maragoli village, yet only 1% of women of childbearing ages have had any kind of connection with them. Given this statistic, it seems that the International Conference on Population and Developments efforts to provide contraceptives to developing regions would result in an enormous surplus of birth control, because there is no demand for the goods. By learning about their culture, and societal norms from interviews with Maragoli people throughout the course of the film, we get a better understanding of their beliefs and why contraceptives are not in high demand. It was evident early on in the film that Maragoli women feared the possibility of their children dying, which is one of the reasons why they wanted many children. In an interview with an elderly woman, she tells Joseph, If a woman bears eight children, let her close up. Or if a woman bears twelve children, then let her close up. But if she has only two children she cannot, we older women will not permit it. If two die when youve born only two, what do you remain with? You remain alone (Maragoli).

Latour 5 Although the eminent fear of child mortality remained a large concern in a womans decision to bear children, infant mortality had been reduced by almost half in the last twenty-five years. This may implicate that the Maragoli hold onto a set of traditional beliefs. In an interview with an older Maragoli man, he explains that in the past, families wanted to have many children around so that when war broke out, they would go to fight off the enemy. Another reason to bear children pertains to the concept that the children will grow up and take care of their parents in old age. While these are a couple of explanations for high fertility rates Maragoli, the most important reason pertains to religious beliefs and tradition. Caldwell, an Australian demographer and author of one of the leading current theories explaining fertility decline, argues The central fact of African high fertility is a culture, molded by religion that encourages repeated childbearing and abhors sterility at any stage (Secondi 222). Caldwells statement about fertility in Africa is also relevant about fertility in Maragoli. The Maragoli people are very religious people. They always speak of god as only giving one son and follow the biblical theme of multiplying as a way of feeding the Earth (Maragoli). Throughout Africa, children are considered as the greatest gifts from god, and are considered as a sign of a divine approval. Upon reading about Giorgio Secondis travels to Maragoli in The Development Economics Reader, it became clear that many traditional beliefs are deeply rooted in Maragoli culture (Secondi 222). During his visit to Kenya, Secondi met with a nurse named Lizzy Opanda who was in charge at a family planning clinic located on the outskirts of Maragoli. Opanda elaborated on Maragolis deeply rooted traditional beliefs, informing Secondi that, Its the men who dont want family planning. Africans believe that to call yourself a man, you have to have lots of children. They want 15 or more. According to Timothy Osayo, a native veternarian that Secondi met with on his visit to Kenya, the idea that contraceptives cause illness is a widespread belief in Kenya. Secondi recounts that He [Oyaso] and everyone else I met in Kenya had a horror story about the Pill IUD or Depo-Provera injection or almost anything. (Secondi 217) In the film, Maragoli, this superstition is somewhat revealed when Rose Vuguza, a mother of sixteen, admits that she stopped taking her birth control medicine because it

Latour 6 was making her feel ill. A more traditional form of birth control, preferred by men in Kenya, involves a man asking his aunt to curse his wife so that she cannot bear any more children. It is important to note, that this rarely happens if the wife has only given birth to a few children (Secondi 217). In some cultures, if a woman decides to stop having children prematurely or is unable to bear more children due to infertility, it is a sign of evilness and it is assumed that she has either angered God or her ancestors. People who decided to limit their fertility in the Maragali, however, were not depicted in an evil light. Aineah Muhindi, a teacher from Maragali who teaches in an urban area, was one of the few people depicted in the film who made the decision to limit fertility. In the film, people who limite fertility tended to work in the city, have educated children, and had more money to buy land (Secondi 222). After viewing this film, it is evident that rapid population growth can cause food shortages and deplete natural resources. What is important is how people respond these problems. Tiffen and Mortimores research in Machakos provided evidence to support Ester Boserups intensification theory. The Machakos inhabitants developed and utilized new technologies to produce more food from less land, proving that economic growth can be associated with population explosions.

Latour 7 Works Cited

Easterly, William. "Cash for Condoms." The elusive quest for growth: economists' adventures and misadventures in the tropics. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 2001. 87-99. Print. Malakoff, David. "Are More People Necessarily a Problem?." Science Magazine 333 (2011): 544-546. Print. Maragoli. Dir. Sandra Nichols. Perf. Sennyoya,. University of California Extension Media Center, 1976. Film. Secondi, Giorgio. "Fanisi's Choice." The development economics reader. London: Routledge, 2008. 213-232. Print.