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Emerging markets
An emerging market is a country that has some characteristics of a developed market but is not a developed market. This includes countries that may be developed markets in the future or were in the past. It may be a nation with social or business activity in the process of rapid growth and industrialization. The economies of China (excluding Hong Kong and Macau, as both are developed) and India are considered to be the largest.[1] According to The Economist, many people find the term outdated, but no new term has gained much traction yet. Emerging market hedge fund capital reached a record new level in the first quarter of 2011 of $121 billion.[2] The four largest emerging and developing economies by either nominal or inflation-adjusted GDP are the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The next four largest markets are MIKT (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey), although South Korea is not considered as an emerging market by some sources. Iran is also considered as an emerging market. The ASEANChina Free Trade Area, launched on January 1, 2010, is the largest regional emerging market in the world.
Terminology
In the 1970s, "less developed countries" (LDCs) was the common term for markets that were less "developed" (by objective or subjective measures) than the developed countries such as the United States, Western Europe, and Japan. These markets were supposed to provide greater potential for profit, but also more risk from various factors. This term was thought by some to Developing countries that are neither part of the least developed countries, nor of be politically incorrect so the emerging the newly industrialized countrynewly industrialized countries market label was created. The term is misleading in that there is no guarantee that a country will move from "less developed" to "more developed"; although that is the general trend in the world, countries can also move from "more developed" to "less developed". Originally brought into fashion in the 1980s by then World Bank economist Antoine Van Agtmael,[3] the term is sometimes loosely used as a replacement for emerging economies, but really signifies a business phenomenon that is not fully described by or constrained to geography or economic strength; such countries are considered to be in a transitional phase between developing and developed status. Examples of emerging markets include Indonesia, Iran, some countries of Latin America, some countries in Southeast Asia, South Korea, most countries in Eastern Europe, Russia, some countries in the Middle East, and parts of Africa. Emphasizing the fluid nature of the category, political scientist Ian Bremmer defines an emerging market as "a country where politics matters at least as much as economics to the markets". The research on emerging markets is diffused within management literature. While researchers including, George Haley, Vladimir Kvint, Hernando de Soto, Usha Haley, and several professors from Harvard Business School and Yale School of Management have described activity in countries such as India and China, how a market emerges is little understood. In 1999, Dr. Kvint published this definition: "Emerging market country is a society transitioning from a dictatorship to a free-market-oriented-economy, with increasing economic freedom, gradual integration with the Global Marketplace and with other members of the GEM (Global Emerging Market), an expanding middle class, improving
Emerging markets standards of living, social stability and tolerance, as well as an increase in cooperation with multilateral institutions" In 2008 Emerging Economy Report,[4] the Center for Knowledge Societies defines Emerging Economies as those "regions of the world that are experiencing rapid informationalization under conditions of limited or partial industrialization." It appears that emerging markets lie at the intersection of non-traditional user behavior, the rise of new user groups and community adoption of products and services, and innovations in product technologies and platforms. More critical scholars have also studied key emerging markets like Mexico and Turkey. Thomas Marois (2012, 2) argues that financial imperatives have become much more significant and has developed the idea of 'emerging finance capitalism' - an era wherein the collective interests of financial capital principally shape the logical options and choices of government and state elites over and above those of labor and popular classes. Julien Vercueil[5] recently proposed an pragmatic definition of the "emerging economies", as distinguished from "emerging markets" coined by an approach heavily influenced by financial criteria. According to his definition, an emerging economy displays the following characteristics : 1. Intermediate income : its PPP per capita income is comprised between 10% and 75% of the average EU per capita income. 2. Catching-up growth : during at least the last decade, it has experienced a brisk economic growth that has narrowed the income gap with advanced economies. 3. Institutional transformations and economic opening : during the same period, it has undertaken profound institutional transformations which contributed to integrate it more deeply into the world economy. Hence, emerging economies appears to be a by-product of the current globalization. At the beginning of the 2010s, more than 50 countries, representing 60% of the world's population and 45% of its GDP, matched these criteria.[6] Among them, the BRICS. The term "rapidly developing economies" is being used to denote emerging markets such as The United Arab Emirates, Chile and Malaysia that are undergoing rapid growth. In recent years, new terms have emerged to describe the largest developing countries such as BRIC that stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China,[7] along with BRICET (BRIC + Eastern Europe and Turkey), BRICS (BRIC + South Africa), BRICM Newly industrialized countries as of 2013. This is an intermediate category (BRIC + Mexico), BRICK (BRIC + South between fully developed and developing. Korea), Next Eleven (Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam) and CIVETS (Colombia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Egypt, Turkey and South Africa).[8] These countries do not share any common agenda, but some experts believe that they are enjoying an increasing role in the world economy and on political platforms. It is difficult to make an exact list of emerging (or developed) markets; the best guides tend to be investment information sources like ISI Emerging Markets and The Economist or market index makers (such as Morgan Stanley Capital International). These sources are well-informed, but the nature of investment information sources leads to two potential problems. One is an element of historicity; markets may be maintained in an index for continuity, even if the countries have since developed past the emerging market phase. Possible examples of this are South Korea[9] and Taiwan. A second is the simplification inherent in making an index; small countries, or countries with limited market liquidity are often not considered, with their larger neighbours considered an appropriate stand-in.
Emerging markets In an Opalesque.TV video, hedge fund manager Jonathan Binder discusses the current and future relevance of the term "emerging markets" in the financial world. Binder says that in the future investors will not necessarily think of the traditional classifications of "G10" (or G7) versus "emerging markets". Instead, people should look at the world as countries that are fiscally responsible and countries that are not. Whether that country is in Europe or in South America should make no difference, making the traditional "blocs" of categorization irrelevant. The Big Emerging Market (BEM) economies are (alphabetically ordered): Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and Turkey.[10] Newly industrialized countries are emerging markets whose economies have not yet reached first world status but have, in a macroeconomic sense, outpaced their developing counterparts. Individual investors can invest in emerging markets by buying into emerging markets or global funds. If they want to pick single stocks or make their own bets they can do it either through ADRs (American depositor Receipts - stocks of foreign companies that trade on US stock exchanges) or through exchange traded funds (exchange traded funds or ETFs hold basket of stocks). The exchange traded funds can be focused on a particular country (e.g., China, India) or region (e.g., Asia-Pacific, Latin America).
Colombia Estonia
1
Hungary India
Philippines
South Africa
The EMGP project, a collaborative effort led by the Vale Columbia Center (VCC), brings together researchers on FDI from leading institutions in emerging markets to produce annual reports identifying the top multinationals from each of a number of emerging markets. Each report is posted on this website as well as on the website of the partner institution in the relevant country. The information in the reports, including the rankings by foreign assets, will be of
Emerging markets interest to researchers, bankers, investors, and the media, as well as to multinational firms in many countries.
FTSE list
The FTSE Group distinguishes between Advanced and Secondary Emerging markets on the basis of their national income and the development of their market infrastructure. The Advanced Emerging markets are classified as such because they are upper or lower middle income GNI countries with advanced market infrastructures or high income GNI countries with lesser developed market infrastructures.[13][14] The Advanced Emerging markets are:
Brazil Czech Republic Hungary Malaysia Mexico Poland [15]
The Secondary Emerging markets include some low income, lower middle, upper middle and high income GNI countries with reasonable market infrastructures and significant size and some upper middle income GNI countries with lesser developed market infrastructures. The secondary emerging markets are:
Chile China Egypt India Morocco Pakistan Peru Philippines Russia UAE
Colombia
Indonesia
MSCI list
As of November 2013, MSCI classified the following 21 countries as emerging markets:[17]
Brazil Chile China Colombia Egypt Greece Hungary India Indonesia Malaysia Mexico Peru Poland Russia South Africa South Korea Taiwan Thailand Turkey
Czech Republic
Philippines
In 2013, Greece was added and Morocco was removed.[18] The following countries are currently under review for a reclassification to Developed market, with conclusions being announced in June 2014: South Korea Taiwan
The list tracked by The Economist is the same, except with Hong Kong, Singapore and Saudi Arabia included (MSCI classifies the first two as developed markets and the third one is unclassified due to foreign ownership restrictions).
Emerging markets
S&P list
As of 31 December 2010, Standard and Poor's classified the following 20 countries as emerging markets:[19]
Brazil Chile China Colombia Czech Republic Egypt Hungary Mexico Russia South Africa Taiwan Thailand Turkey
The United Arab Emirates, status of emerging market by S&P. effective on September 2014.[20]
Qatar, and Jordan are currently under review for being upgraded to the Greece is under review for being demoted to becoming an emerging market
Colombia
Philippines Thailand
The following country is currently under Dow Jones' watchlist for a reclassification to Emerging market:[22] Greece
The following countries are currently under Dow Jones' watchlist for a reclassification to Developed market: South Korea Taiwan
Emerging markets
BBVA Research
In November 2010, BBVA Research introduced a new economic concept, to identify a key emerging markets.[24] This classification is divided in two set of developing economies. EAGLEs (Emerging and Growth-Leading Economies): Expected Incremental GDP in the next 10 years to be larger than the average of the G7 economies, excluding the US.
China India Indonesia South Korea Taiwan Brazil Mexico Russia Turkey
NEST: Expected Incremental GDP in the next decade to be lower than the average of the G6 economies(G7 excluding the US) but higher than Italys.
Argentina Bangladesh Chile Colombia Egypt Malaysia Nigeria Poland Thailand South Africa Ukraine Vietnam
Lithuania Mauritius
Indonesia
Philippines
Dominican Republic
Malaysia
Summary list
If we organize the lists above into the following table, a few countries appear in every list (BRICS + Next Eleven, FTSE, MSCI, The Economist, S&P, Dow Jones, Columbia University EMGP). Indonesia and Turkey are categorized with Mexico and Korea as part of the MIKT economies. Egypt, since January 25, 2011, has been affected by protests and is now in a transitional period. Several countries also only appear on one list. These are Iran (Next 11); Israel (Columbia University EMGP); Hong Kong, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia (The Economist); and Sudan, Tunisia, Ukraine, and Venezuela (BBVA).
Emerging markets
Emerging Markets by Each Group of Analysts Country
Argentina Bahrain Bangladesh Brazil Bulgaria Chile China Colombia Czech Republic Egypt Estonia Greece Hong Kong Hungary India Indonesia Iran Israel Jordan Kuwait Latvia Lithuania Malaysia Mauritius Mexico Morocco Nigeria Oman Pakistan Peru Philippines Poland Qatar Romania Russia Saudi Arabia
IMF
FTSE MSCI
The Economist
S&P
Dow Jones
BBVA
Emerging markets
Singapore Slovakia Slovenia South Africa Sri Lanka South Korea Sudan Taiwan Thailand Turkey Tunisia UAE Ukraine Venezuela Vietnam
Emerging markets
References
[1] "Emerging Economies and the Transformation of International Business" By Subhash Chandra Jain. Edward Elgar Publishing, 2006 p.384 [2] http:/ / www. business-standard. com/ india/ news/ brics-is-passe-time-now-for-%5C3g%5C-citi/ 126725/ on [3] FT.com / Columnists / John Authers - The Long View: How adventurous are emerging markets? (http:/ / www. ft. com/ cms/ s/ be77e600-605f-11db-a716-0000779e2340. html) [4] Emerging Economy Report (http:/ / www. emergingeconomyreport. com) [5] Vercueil, Julien : "Les pays mergents. Brsil - Russie - Inde - Chine... Mutations conomiques et nouveaux dfis " (Emerging Countries. Brazil - Russia - India - China.. Economic change and new challenges", in french). Paris : Bral, 3rd Edition, 2012, 232 p. [6] Ibid., p. 10 [7] Five Years of Chinas WTO Membership. EU and US Perspectives on Chinas Compliance with Transparency Commitments and the Transitional Review Mechanism (http:/ / papers. ssrn. com/ sol3/ papers. cfm?abstract_id=916768), Legal Issues of Economic Integration, Kluwer Law International, Volume 33, Number 3, pp. 263-304, 2006. by Paolo Farah (http:/ / papers. ssrn. com/ sol3/ cf_dev/ AbsByAuth. cfm?per_id=629289) [8] "After BRICs, look to CIVETS for growth - HSBC CEO" (http:/ / www. reuters. com/ article/ idUSLDE63Q26Q20100427) [9] Classified by FTSE as a developed market. [10] Yale University Library: Emerging Markets - The Big Ten Countries (http:/ / www. library. yale. edu/ socsci/ emerge/ bigten. html) [11] http:/ / www. imf. org/ external/ pubs/ ft/ weo/ 2012/ update/ 02/ index. htm [12] http:/ / www. vcc. columbia. edu/ content/ emerging-market-global-players-project [13] See FTSE Country Classification, September 2010 (http:/ / www. ftse. com/ Indices/ Country_Classification/ Downloads/ Sept 2010/ FTSE_Country_Classification_Sept_2010_Update. pdf) [14] http:/ / www. ftse. com/ Research_and_Publications/ FTSE_Glossary. jsp [15] Possible promotion to Developed. [16] http:/ / thailand-business-news. com/ news/ 36720-stock-exchange-of-thailand-opens-up-above-1200-pts-highest-in-almost-16-years#. T3BxszHxq8A [17] MSCI Emerging markets. (http:/ / www. mscibarra. com/ products/ indices/ international_equity_indices) [18] http:/ / www. msci. com/ products/ indices/ market_classification. html [19] The S&P Global Broad Market Index, 31 December 2010 (https:/ / www. sp-indexdata. com/ idpfiles/ citigroup/ prc/ active/ factsheets/ Factsheet_SP_Global_BMI. pdf); p. 2. [20] S&P downgrades Greece to emerging market status (http:/ / www. ftadviser. com/ 2013/ 10/ 31/ investments/ emerging-markets/ s-p-downgrades-greece-to-emerging-market-status-oKPyoujkoFlRWUrjQ408FL/ article. html). Financial Times. October 31, 2013. [21] http:/ / www. djindexes. com/ mdsidx/ downloads/ brochure_info/ Dow_Jones_Indexes_Country_Classification_System. pdf [22] http:/ / www. djindexes. com/ symbolsandcalendars/ ?go=watchlist [23] http:/ / blog. frontierstrategygroup. com/ 2011/ 07/ keeping-an-eye-on-latin-america-you%E2%80%99re-in-good-company [24] http:/ / www. bbvaresearch. com/ KETD/ ketd/ Descargas?pais=EAGL& tematica=/ MACR/ RVSE/ & canal=web& tipocontenido=AFON& idioma=ING& pdf=/ fbin/ mult/ 120221_EAGLEs_Outlook_Annual_Report_2012_tcm348-287658. pdf& ididoc=en& tipopublicacion=Eagles [25] (http:/ / www. bbvaresearch. com/ KETD/ ketd/ Descargas?pais=EAGL& tematica=/ MACR/ RVSE/ & canal=web& tipocontenido=AFON& idioma=ING& pdf=/ fbin/ mult/ 120221_EAGLEs_Outlook_Annual_Report_2012_tcm348-287658. pdf& ididoc=en& tipopublicacion=Eagles) EAGLEs_Outlook_Annual_Report_2012 (20 February 2012), page 9 [26] http:/ / www. thejakartapost. com/ news/ 2011/ 05/ 18/ ri-may-become-one-six-major-economies. html
Sources
Goldman Sachs Paper No.134 BRIMC (http://www2.goldmansachs.com/hkchina/insight/research/pdf/ BRICs_3_12-1-05.pdf) (English) CIVETS countries - Colombia Official Investment Portal (http://www.investincolombia.com.co/ emerging-countries/emerging-countries-2010) (English) Michael Pettis, The Volatility Machine: Emerging Economies and the Threat of Financial Collapse (2001) ISBN 0-19-514330-2 Julien Vercueil, Les pays mergents. Brsil Russie Inde Chine... mutations conomiques et nouveaux dfis ('Emerging Countries. Brazil Russia India China... : economic transformations and new challenges', in French). Paris : Bral, 2010, 207 p.ISBN 978-2-7495-0957-0
Emerging markets
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External links
Emerging Markets Review (http://www.kentlaw.edu/emergingmarkets/) Emerging Markets: A Review of Business and Legal Issues Emerging markets: leading the way to recovery (http://www.internationalbusinessreport.com/Reports/2010/ Reports/emerging_markets/index.asp) Grant Thornton International Business Report Winning in Emerging Markets: Five Key Supply Chain Capabilities (http://ctl.mit.edu/library/ winning_emerging_markets_five_key_supply_chain_capabilities) by Edgar E. Blanco. MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics. Investment Issues in Emerging Markets - Research Foundation of CFA Institute (http://www.cfapubs.org/toc/ rflr/2011/6/1)
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License
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