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FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief

The Cereal Supply and Demand Brief provides an up-to-date perspective of the world cereal market. The monthly brief is supplemented by a detailed assessment of cereal production as well as supply and demand conditions by country/region in the quarterly Crop Prospects and Food Situation. More in-depth analyses of world markets for cereals, as well as other major food commodities, are published biannually in Food Outlook. Monthly release dates for 2014: 06 February, 06 March, 03 April, 08 May, 05 June, 03 July, 11 September, 09 October, 06 November, 04 December.

World cereal supply and demand situation comfortable and early outlook for wheat production in 2014 favourable
Release date: 06/03/2014

FAOs latest forecast for world cereal production in 2013 stands at a record 2 515 million tonnes (including rice in milled terms), 13 million tonnes above the February forecast and 9 percent more than the previous years level. The latest upward adjustment mostly reflects a significant revision to the estimates for Australia, where the winter grain harvest has recently been concluded, and some upward revision also to the figures for wheat and coarse grains in China. At this stage of the season, with the bulk of the coarse grains and paddy crops yet to be planted, it is still too early for even a preliminary forecast of global cereal output in 2014. For wheat, however, winter crops are already developing or are soon to come out of dormancy in the northern hemisphere, which accounts for the bulk of global production, while spring planting is underway in some countries. FAOs first forecast for world wheat production in 2014 stands at 704 million tonnes, which represents a drop of 1.7 percent from the 2013 record harvest, but would still be the second largest crop ever. The decrease is expected to be accountable mostly to a reduction in area and yields in Canada, after a record high last year, and in the European CIS states, where yields are expected to return to average after relatively high levels in 2013. The overall reductions expected would more than offset the few, and less marked, increases that are foreseen this year, mainly in the EU, India and the United States.

World cereal utilization in 2013/14 is currently projected at nearly 2 420 million tonnes, 5 million tonnes more than anticipated in February, following higher projected feed use of coarse grains in several countries, in particular Australia, Argentina, China, Mexico and Ukraine. The current forecast would imply a 4 percent (nearly 95 million tonnes) increase in total cereal utilization compared to 2012/13, sustained mainly by a strong growth in feed use of maize, of at least 10 percent (52 million tonnes), to 554 million tonnes. Total food consumption of cereals is forecast at 1093 million tonnes in 2013/14, 1.6 percent (nearly 18 million tonnes) more than in the previous season. This would lift the average per caput intake of cereals at the global level marginally from 151.3 kg in 2012/13 to 151.7 kg in 2013/14. Other usages of cereals, excluding food and feed, are expected to show a strong (4.5 percent or 20 million tonnes) growth in 2013/14 with most of the increase reflecting higher use of maize for the production of ethanol in the United States, which according to the latest official forecast, is likely to rebound by 7.6 percent, after a 7.0 percent decline in 2012/13. Cereal utilization for the production of starch is also expected to increase significantly, by around 5 percent, to 113 million tonnes, with most of the expansion occurring in China, EU and the United States. The FAO forecast for world cereal stocks by the close of the 2014 crop seasons has been raised by one percent (5 million tonnes) since February, to 578.5 million tonnes. The revision reflects the upward adjustment to the world production forecast, which more than offset this months increase in cereal utilizat ion. At the current level, world cereal stocks would be as much as 14.5 percent (73 million tonnes) above their reduced opening levels and the highest since 2001/02, or in 12 years. The sharp recovery in global cereal production in 2013 would be the main force behind the anticipated replenishment of world granaries. Based on the latest stocks and utilization forecasts, the global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is seen to approach 24 percent in 2013/14, its highest value since 2002/03 and comfortably above the 2007/08 historical low of 18.4 percent. Across the main cereals, world wheat stocks may attain 179 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes more than last anticipated and 12.7 percent (20 million tonnes) higher than at the beginning of the season. The level of world coarse grains stocks by the end of seasons in 2014 is put at 220 million tonnes, its highest level in 14 years. This is 2 million tonnes higher than the forecast in February, as increased forecasts for ending stocks in China and Mexico more than compensated for downward adjustments in the United States. Global rice stocks at the close of seasons in 2014 have been raised slightly compared to last month, owing to an official upgrade in Brazil inventories, and are now forecast to strike a new high of 179.1 million tonnes. China would be responsible for much of the yearly increase, lifting its share in world reserves to over 55 percent. The FAO forecast for world cereal trade in 2013/14 has been raised by 4 million tonnes since February to around 325 million tonnes, now as much as 5 percent, or 16 million tonnes, above the global trade estimate for 2012/13. The latest upward adjustment concerns wheat, and to a lesser extent, also maize. Global cereal trade peaked in 2011/12 but fell in 2012/13, as very tight exportable supplies constrained wheat flows. In sharp contrast to 2012/13, ample cereal supplies and more affordable prices are anticipated to boost international cereal trade in 2013/14 to a new record. World wheat trade in 2013/14 is forecast at a near record level of 146 million tonnes (July/June), 2.5 million tonnes more than expected in February and 4.4 percent (6 million tonnes) above the estimate for trade in 2012/13. Ample availabilities in nearly all major exporting countries and generally strong demand in Asia are behind the anticipated expansion. The forecast for world trade in coarse grains in 2013/14 (July/June) has been raised by 1.5 million tonnes, to 141.0 million tonnes. This points to a 6.7 percent (almost 9 million tonnes) increase from 2012/13 and a new record. The higher forecast compared to February reflects expectations for larger imports by Mexico and a number of countries in Asia. The FAO forecast for rice trade in calendar 2014 has changed little since December, remaining at 38.3 million tonnes. At that level, it would be almost 3 percent larger than currently estimated for 2013 and match the 2012 record. Much of the rebounding is anticipated to rest on a 22 percent surge of shipments from Thailand. For more detail see the March issue of Crop Prospects and Food Situation

Summary Tables

Download full dataset 1/ Production data refer to the calendar year of the first year shown. Rice production is expressed in milled terms. 2/ Production plus opening stocks. 3/ Trade data refer to exports based on a July/June marketing season for wheat and coarse grains and on a January/December marketing season for rice (second year shown). 4/ May not equal the difference between supply and utilization due to differences in individual country marketing years.

5/ Major wheat exporters are Argentina, Australia, Canada, the EU, Kazakhstan, Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States; major coarse grain exporters are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, the EU, Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States; major rice exporters are India, Pakistan, Thailand, the United States, and Viet Nam. Disappearance is defined as domestic utilization plus exports for any given season.

Ultima prognoza FAO pentru producia mondial de cereale n 2013 se ridic la un record de 2 515 milioane de tone (inclusiv orez n termeni albit), cu 13 milioane de tone mai sus decat prognoza din februarie i 9 la sut mai mult dect nivelul din anul precedent. Ultima crestere reflect mai ales o revizuire semnificativ a estimrilor pentru Australia, unde recent a fost ncheiat recolta de cereale de iarn si unele revizuiri in crestere, de asemenea, la productia de gru i cereale grosiere din China. n aceast etap a sezonului, cand cea mai mare parte a boabelor brute i culturile de orez nc trebue s fie plantate, este nc prea devreme pentru chiar i o prognoz preliminar a produciei de cereale la nivel mondial n 2014. Pentru gru, totui, culturile de toamn sunt deja in curs de dezvoltare sau sunt gata s ias din hibernare n emisfera nordic, care deine cea mai mare parte din producia global, n timp ce plantarea de primvar este n curs de desfurare n unele ri. Primul prognoza FAO pentru producia mondial de gru n 2014 se ridic la 704 milioane de tone, ceea ce reprezint o scdere de 1,7 la sut din recolta maxim din 2013, totui fiind a doua cea mai mare recolt de gru pn acum. Responsabil pentru scdere este de ateptat s fie reducerea ariei cultivate i randamentului n Canada, dup recordul din anul trecut, i n Statele Europene din CSI, unde se ateapt s se ntoarc la randamentele medii dup niveluri relativ ridicate din 2013. Utilizarea mondial de cereale n 2013/14 este n prezent estimat la apoximativ 2 420 milioane de tone , cu 5 milioane de tone mai mult dect se anticipase n luna februarie , ca urmare a utilizrii mai large dect a fsot preconizat a furajelor din cereale grosier n mai multe ri , n special Australia , Argentina , China , Mexic i Ucraina . Prognoza actual ar implica o cretere de 4 la sut ( aproximativ 95 milioane de tone ), n utilizarea total de cereale n comparaie cu 2012/13 , sustinuta in principal de o cretere puternic n furaje de porumb , de cel puin 10 la sut (52 milioane de tone ) , la 554 milioane de tone. Consumul total de produse alimentare din cereale este estimat la 1093 milioane de tone n 2013/14 , cu 1,6 la sut ( aproape 18 milioane de tone ), mai mult dect n sezonul trecut . Aceasta ar ridica consumul pe cap de locuitor de cereale la nivel global marginal de la 151,3 kg n 2012/2013 la 151,7 kg n 2013/2014. Alte utilizri a cerealelor, cu excepia produselor alimentare i hranei pentru animale, sunt de ateptat s arate o cretere puternic (4,5 la sut, sau 20 de milioane de tone), n 2013/14, n cea mai mare parte creterea reflectnd utilizare mai mult a porumbului pentru producerea de etanol in Statele Unite, care n conformitate cu cele mai recente prognoze oficiale, este probabil sa-si revina cu 7,6 la sut, dup un declin de 7,0 la suta in 2012/13. Utilizarea cerealelor pentru producia de amidon este deasemenea ateptat s creasc semnificativ, cu aproximativ 5 la sut, pn la 113 milione de tone, n cea mai mare parte n China, UE i Statele Unite.

Estimrile FAO pentru stocul mondial de cereale n 2014,la sfritul perioadei de recoltare, sau majorat cu un procest (5 mil. tone) din Februarie, constituind 578,5 mil. tone. Revizuirea reflect ajustarea ascendent la prognoza produciei mondiale, care mai mult dect a compensat creterea din aceast lun a consumului de cerealelor. La etapa actual, stocul mondial de cereale ar fi cu 14,5 procente (73 mil. tone) peste nivelul redus din etapa iniial i cel mai ridicat din 2001/02 sau din ultimii 12 ani. Recuperarea brusc a produciei cerealelor la nivel mondial n 2013 ar fi principala for pentru reaprovizionarea ateptat a grnarelor din lume. Bazat pe cele mai recente previziuni a stocurilor i consumului, raportul dintre stocul i consumul mondial a cerealelor este de aproximativ 24 procente n 2013/2014, care este cea mai mare valoare din 2002/2003 pn acum i peste minimul istoric de 18,4 procente din 2007/08. Dintre cele mai principale cereale, stocul mondial de gru poate atinge 179 mil. tone, cu 3 mil. tone mai mult dect utimile anticipri i cu 12,7 procente (20 mil. tone) mai mult dect la nceputul perioadei. Nivelul stocurilor mondiale de boabe grosiere la sfritul anului 2014 se estimeaz la 220 mil. tone, care este cel mai ridicat nivel din ultimii 14 ani. Stocurile mondiale de orez la sfritul anului 2014 s-au ridicat puin fa de luna precedent, datorit actualizrii oficiale a stocurilor din Brazilia, i sunt prognozate acum s ajung la un nou record de 179,1 milioane de tone. China ar fo responsabil pentru o mare parte din creterea anual, ridicnd cota sa n rezerva mondiale cu 55 la sut. Prognoza FAO pentru comerul mondial de cereale n perioada 2013/2014 a fost ridicat cu 4 mil. tone, din Februarie, la aproximatic 325 mil. tone, ceia ce este cu 5 procente sau 16 mil. tone mai mult dect estimrile comerului mondial pentru 2012/2013. Ultima ajustare ascendent privete gru, i n mai mic msur, de asemenea, porumbul. Comerul de cereale la nivel mondial a atins apogeul n 2011/12, dar a sczut n 2012/13, datorit exporturilor joase constrnse de fluxurile de gru. n comparaie cu perioada 2012/13, livrrile ample de cereale i preurile mai accesibile vor anticipa stimularea comerului internaional cu cereale n 2013/14 la un nou record. Comerul mondial de gru n 2013/14 se estimeaz la un nivel record de aproape 146 de milioane de tone (iulie / iunie), cu 2,5 milioane de tone mai mult dect era de ateptat n februarie i cu 4,4 la sut (6 milioane de tone) peste estimrile pentru comerul din 2012/13. Disponibiliti ample n aproape toate rile mari exportatoare i cereria n general puternic din Asia sunt n spatele creterii anticipate. Prognoza pentru comerul mondial cu cereale grosier, n 2013/14 (iulie / iunie) a fost ridicat cu 1,5 milioane tone, la 141 mil. tone. Acest lucru indic o cretere de 6,7 procente (9 mil. tone) fa de 2012/13 i un nou record. Prognoza FAO pentru comerul de orez n 2014 sa schimbat puin din decembrie, meninndu-se la 38,3 milioane de tone. Acest nivel ar fi cu aproape 3 la sut mai mare dect n perioada asemntoare din 2013 i se potrivete cu recodul din 2012. O mare parte din revenire este de asteptat sa se bazeze pe o cretere de 22 la sut a livrrilor din Thailanda.