Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 53

2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide

Chapter 10
Chapter 10
Play Exercise
Play Exercise
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Play Exercise
Play Exercise
Cenomanian sandstone on
Cenomanian sandstone on
anticlinal closures related to:
anticlinal closures related to:
Turtle structures occur where thick
sediments deposited in areas of early
salt withdrawal form residual highs
following later peripheral salt
withdrawal
Salt domes have negative gravity
anomalies, whereas turtle structures
have positive ones, due to the lack of
a salt core.
P. 10-2
Cenomanian SS Play 101
Larger Oi l
fi el ds
Oi l
(MBBL)
Oi l m3 Gas BCF Gas m3 Oi l equi v
Mbbl
Oi l Equi v
m3
4 6 0.95 6 0.23 7 1.11
5 21 3.34 24 0.92 25 3.97
6 45 7.15 30 1.15 50 7.95
Total 72 11.44 60 2.3 82 13.03
Smal l er oi l fi el ds None
Larger Gas
fi el ds
Oi l
(MBBL)
Oi l m3 Gas BCF Gas m3 Oi l equi v
Mbbl
Oi l Equi v
m3
1 0 0 42 1.61 7 1.11
2 2.8 0.445 127 4.87 24 3.82
3 6 0.095 56 2.14 10 7.95
Total 3.4 0.54 225 8.62 41 6.52
Smal l er Gas
fi el ds
Oi l
(MBBL)
Oi l m3 Gas BCF Gas m3 Oi l equi v
Mbbl
Oi l Equi v
m3
13 0.2 0.03 5 0.19 1 0.16
16 0 18 0.69 3 0.48
Total 0.2 0.03 23 0.88 4 0.64
St i l l Smal l er f i el ds 9,14,15
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Chapter 11
Chapter 11
Selling Your Play or Prospect
Selling Your Play or Prospect
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Selling Your Project
Selling Your Project
Meet minimum economic parameters
Meet minimum economic parameters
Clarity of purpose
Clarity of purpose
-
-
business
business
rational
rational
Alignment with organizational goals
Alignment with organizational goals
Needs and criteria of your customers
Needs and criteria of your customers
Support from the rest of the organization
Support from the rest of the organization
Multi
Multi
-
-
disciplinary approach
disciplinary approach
State
State
-
-
of
of
-
-
the
the
-
-
art
art
Balance detail and enough data
Balance detail and enough data
Well planned presentation
Well planned presentation
Clearly articulated recommendations
Clearly articulated recommendations
P. 11-1
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Communicating With the Organization
Communicating With the Organization
Most of organization doesn
Most of organization doesn

t understand
t understand
exploration
exploration
Some magicapplied to exploration
Dont live in real world
Share conclusions to allay these fears
Share conclusions to allay these fears
Always plan presentations
Always plan presentations
Present findings based on their needs
Spare the details (unless asked)
Keep customer in mind
Keep customer in mind
P. 11-2
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Presenting Your Case
Presenting Your Case
General structure
General structure
What you will say
The message
What you told them
Plays and prospects
Plays and prospects
-
-
2 questions
2 questions
Explain
Explain
what
what
you numbers mean
you numbers mean
Mean reserves
Range of reserves
Adequacy
Minimum economic size
P. 11-1
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Assessment Presentations
Assessment Presentations
Regional maps Regional maps
Structural trends
Source rock distribution
Lithologic trends
Existing production/facilities
Ownership of play Ownership of play
Play maps (see article by Dave White) Play maps (see article by Dave White)
Adequacy boundaries
Prospect maps Prospect maps
Structure
Reservoir isopach
Well and seismic control
Environmental reconstruction
Cross section(s)
Type log
P. 11-2
P. 11-10+
P. 11-10+
P. 11-10+
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Chapter 12
Chapter 12
Play Workshop
Play Workshop
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Horst Basal Sandstone Play
Horst Basal Sandstone Play
Analogue play Analogue play
Five major oil fields larger than 50 10 Five major oil fields larger than 50 10
6 6
bbl (8 10 bbl (8 10
6 6
m m
3 3
) have ) have
been found 50 miles (80 km) to the west in a basal Upper been found 50 miles (80 km) to the west in a basal Upper
Cretaceous sandstone on a parallel horst. Cretaceous sandstone on a parallel horst.
The average field size is 365 10 The average field size is 365 10
6 6
bbl (58 10 bbl (58 10
6 6
m m
3 3
) oil ) oil - -
equivalent. equivalent.
The oils have an average API gravity of 35 The oils have an average API gravity of 35
o o
and an average and an average
associated GOR of 450 ft associated GOR of 450 ft
3 3
/bbl (80 m /bbl (80 m
3 3
/m /m
3 3
). ).
Producing depths average 7500 ft (2290 m), and reservoir Producing depths average 7500 ft (2290 m), and reservoir
temperatures are185 temperatures are185
o o
F (85 F (85
o o
C). C).
The reservoirs have very good water drives The reservoirs have very good water drives
The probable source rock, the Upper Cretaceous shales The probable source rock, the Upper Cretaceous shales
stratigraphically overlying the sandstone, average 1.9% stratigraphically overlying the sandstone, average 1.9%
TOC, the available samples being mostly immature. TOC, the available samples being mostly immature.
P. 12-2
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Horst Basal Sandstone Play
Horst Basal Sandstone Play
Play details Play details
Assess using a Assess using a minimum counted field size of 50 10 minimum counted field size of 50 10
6 6
bbl (8 bbl (8
x 10 x 10
6 6
m m
3 3
) ) oil oil - -equivalent equivalent
Seismic coverage is excellent, and all prospects of this size Seismic coverage is excellent, and all prospects of this size
or larger have probably been mapped or larger have probably been mapped
The presence of the basal sandstone on this horst block is The presence of the basal sandstone on this horst block is
not fully assured but seems quite likely not fully assured but seems quite likely
Even though there is analogous production to the west, Even though there is analogous production to the west,
consider this as a new play consider this as a new play
Assessment of the largest prospect (cut by the cross Assessment of the largest prospect (cut by the cross
section) gives a mean unrisked value of 2400 10 section) gives a mean unrisked value of 2400 10
6 6
bbl (380 bbl (380
10 10
6 6
m m
3 3
) oil ) oil - -equivalent equivalent
The play area encompassing the mapped structures is 1800 The play area encompassing the mapped structures is 1800
sq. mi. (4660 sq. km). sq. mi. (4660 sq. km).
P. 12-2
P. 12-3
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Niger Delta, Growth
Niger Delta, Growth
-
-
Fault Play
Fault Play
Assess the ultimate potential of the onshore Niger Assess the ultimate potential of the onshore Niger
Delta at a simulated early exploration stage when the discoverie Delta at a simulated early exploration stage when the discoveries s
comprise a truly representative field comprise a truly representative field- -size distribution including the size distribution including the
largest field. largest field.
Assumptions Assumptions
Production has been found at 24 fields having EUR's greater than Production has been found at 24 fields having EUR's greater than 10 10
10 10
6 6
bbl (1.6 10 bbl (1.6 10
6 6
cu m) in Paleocene through Pliocene regressive cu m) in Paleocene through Pliocene regressive
sandstone reservoirs overlying and interbedded with marine shale sandstone reservoirs overlying and interbedded with marine shales s
and underlying nonmarine sandstones (see map and cross section). and underlying nonmarine sandstones (see map and cross section).
Traps are anticlinal rollovers on the downdropped sides of down Traps are anticlinal rollovers on the downdropped sides of down- -to to- -
basin growth faults, together with related fault closures. basin growth faults, together with related fault closures.
Possible source rocks include both the deep underlying shales, Possible source rocks include both the deep underlying shales,
with extensive vertical migration up faults, and some of the sha with extensive vertical migration up faults, and some of the shales les
interbedded with the reservoirs. interbedded with the reservoirs.
Of the 60 prospects drilled, Of the 60 prospects drilled, 24 are significant oil fields 24 are significant oil fields equal to or equal to or
larger than the minimum assessment size, and larger than the minimum assessment size, and 36 are 36 are dry dry . .
P. 12-4
The map shows the wide distribution of both discoveries and dry The map shows the wide distribution of both discoveries and dry tests tests
within the belt of structures as known at this time. within the belt of structures as known at this time.
Each fault arc represents one prospect Each fault arc represents one prospect . .
Onshore play area is 18000 sq. mi. (47,000 sq. km). Onshore play area is 18000 sq. mi. (47,000 sq. km).
The oil The oil - -equivalent EUR's of the 24 discovered oil fields are listed. equivalent EUR's of the 24 discovered oil fields are listed.
The total discovered GOR (associated & dissolved gas / oil) is The total discovered GOR (associated & dissolved gas / oil) is
estimated to be 1500 ft estimated to be 1500 ft
3 3
/bbl (267 m /bbl (267 m
3 3
/ m / m
3 3
). A few of the ). A few of the dry dry tests tests
appear to be nonassociated gas, which is uneconomic at this stag appear to be nonassociated gas, which is uneconomic at this stage e
Assume that significant nonassociated gas fields will be found Assume that significant nonassociated gas fields will be found at at
greater depths where the future gas greater depths where the future gas- -field size distribution can be the field size distribution can be the
direct energy direct energy- -equivalent of the oil equivalent of the oil - -field size distribution. Ignore field size distribution. Ignore
possible NGL. possible NGL.
Average oil recovery efficiency is estimated to be 42.5 percent. Average oil recovery efficiency is estimated to be 42.5 percent.
Common producing depths range from 5000 to 11500 ft (1500 Common producing depths range from 5000 to 11500 ft (1500- -3500 3500
m). m).
The The smallest uncounted size smallest uncounted size for the small for the small - -field assessment is field assessment is 1.0 1.0
10 10
6 6
bbl (0.16 10 bbl (0.16 10
6 6
cu m). cu m).
We will not assess possible stratigraphic or other plays We will not assess possible stratigraphic or other plays
P. 12-4
P. 12-6
Horst Play
Horst Play
0.40
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Chapter 13
Chapter 13
Perspectives
Perspectives
P. 13-2
Creaming
Chance of
Adequacy
Field
Size
(10
6
BBL)
P. 13-3
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Year of Discovery
Middle J urassic Play, UK, Norway, & Denmark
77% of Reserves
in Eight Years !
D
i
s
c
o
v
e
r
e
d

V
o
l
u
m
e
s

(
M
M
B
O
E
)
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998
Oseberg
Gullfaks
Ninian
Sleipner
Statfjord
Brent
Beryl
P. 13-7
Terkin, et al, 2001
P. 13-7
P. 13-4
P. 13-6
Bowen
Basin
P. 13-8
Per mi an
Basi n
1.7% of
the 4,014
fields,
60% of
reserves
1.3% of the
hydrocarbon
, 70% of the
fields
P. 13-9
P. 13-10
165 prospects
45 fields
120 dry holes
28% 28%
bet t er bet t er
t han t han
r andom r andom
63% 63%
bet t er bet t er
t han t han
r andom r andom
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Assessing assessments
Assessing assessments
Measures:
Measures:
1.
1.
Sum of
Sum of
risked
risked
mean reserves =
mean reserves =
RESERVES
RESERVES
FOUND
FOUND
2.
2.
Sum of
Sum of
mean reserves
mean reserves
(unrisked) for
(unrisked) for
successful prospects =
successful prospects =
RESERVES FOUND
RESERVES FOUND
3.
3.
Average Frequency of reserves found = ~
Average Frequency of reserves found = ~
P45
P45
4.
4.
Number of fields found = sum of all
Number of fields found = sum of all
prospect adequacies
prospect adequacies
5.
5.
Key risk factor foreseen for 2/3 of failed
Key risk factor foreseen for 2/3 of failed
prospects
prospects
P. 13-11
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Assessing an Assessment
Assessing an Assessment Modified From Rose 1987 Modified From Rose 1987
Unranked predrill predictions differed from
Unranked predrill predictions differed from
postdrill results by +/
postdrill results by +/
-
-
10X
10X
On average only slightly overestimated.
On average only slightly overestimated.
Discovery probabilities underestimated
Discovery probabilities underestimated
Volume
Volume
-
-
factor predictions
factor predictions
worst - recovery factor, intermediate - productive area, best - net pay
thickness
50% of the dry prospects, assessors
50% of the dry prospects, assessors
foresaw key geologic risk factor
foresaw key geologic risk factor
Risking the mean rather than the minimum
Risking the mean rather than the minimum
P. 13-11
Rose, 2001
P. 13-12
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Risk Aversion Techniques
Risk Aversion Techniques
From Rose, 1992 From Rose, 1992
Farmout
Farmout
Bottom hole/ dry hole
Bottom hole/ dry hole
contributions
contributions
Promoting partners
Promoting partners
Drilling in to
Drilling in to

options
options

P. 13-10
Reserves vs. Predictions
Reserves vs. Predictions
Downey, 1998 Downey, 1998
P. 13-12
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Biases Affecting Decisions
Biases Affecting Decisions
From Rose, 1992 From Rose, 1992
Framing effects
Framing effects
Prior accounts
Prior accounts
Consistent reference frame
Consistent reference frame
Success probability
Success probability
Inaction vs wrong action
Inaction vs wrong action
Group process vs individual
Group process vs individual
Personal familiarity
Personal familiarity
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Ways People Think
Ways People Think
Don't pay attention to history
Don't pay attention to history
Causality easily jumped to
Causality easily jumped to
Respond to praise
Respond to praise
Sensitive to external rewards and
Sensitive to external rewards and
punishment
punishment
Desperately seeking meaning in
Desperately seeking meaning in
our lives
our lives
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Common Corporate Behaviors
Common Corporate Behaviors
From Rose, 1992 From Rose, 1992
More attention to dry holes than reserves
More attention to dry holes than reserves
Domination by orthodox plays
Domination by orthodox plays
Delays and extra data gathering
Delays and extra data gathering
Complicated decision chain
Complicated decision chain
-
-
authoritarian, little local authority
authoritarian, little local authority
Conservative economic indicators
Conservative economic indicators
Short term reference
Short term reference
Inflated costs
Inflated costs
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Unocal Experience
Unocal Experience
Alexander and Lohr, 2000 Alexander and Lohr, 2000
Written
Written
guidelines
guidelines
are important
are important
Continued
Continued
oversight
oversight
of assessment is required for
of assessment is required for
consistency
consistency
Needs to be risk analysis
Needs to be risk analysis
training
training
for both the
for both the
technical staff as well as management
technical staff as well as management
Evaluation
Evaluation
software
software
should be standardized,
should be standardized,
accessible and adaptable
accessible and adaptable
Understanding about
Understanding about
dependency
dependency
between
between
variables is essential
variables is essential
Project
Project
results
results
should be charted and understood
should be charted and understood
P. 13-12
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Conoco Experience
Conoco Experience
Leivelle, 2000 Leivelle, 2000
Many of the methods currently utilized
Many of the methods currently utilized
undervalue
undervalue
new exploration concepts
new exploration concepts
Methods ignore or do not fully consider:
Methods ignore or do not fully consider:
1. Whether risks and uncertainties are associated with the
play concept or are prospect specific
2. Value of information derived from an exploration program in
resolving play concept risks and uncertainties
3. Value of information derived from companies activities
4. Presence of multiple decision points during the execution of
an exploration program
5. Amount of follow-up potential that could be accessed given
the play concept works
P. 13-13
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
BP Experience
BP Experience
Yeilding, et al, 2000 Yeilding, et al, 2000
Reservoir prediction in exploration may be
Reservoir prediction in exploration may be
enhanced by following six axioms:
enhanced by following six axioms:
1. Acquire the right data
2. Use all available data
3. Work the problem at a variety of spatial and
stratigraphic scales
4. Apply multiple tools/methodologies and geologic
disciplines
5. Carry multiple models to quantify or qualify
uncertainty
6. Use new data to update/exclude models
P. 13-13
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Pete Rose
Pete Rose

s Experience
s Experience
Rose, 2000 Rose, 2000
Prospectors have begun to recognize that
Prospectors have begun to recognize that
they have three main professional
they have three main professional
responsibilities:
responsibilities:
1. To identify geologic anomalies that have an
enhanced likelihood of containing commercial
hydrocarbons
2. To measure them, by estimating chance of
success, and reserves
3. To be professionally objective - to recognize that if
the estimates are biased, portfolio-value is not
optimized and the firm is damaged
P. 13-13
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Pete Rose
Pete Rose

s Futuring
s Futuring
Rose, 2000 Rose, 2000
Future Tasks for Exploration Risk Analysis
Future Tasks for Exploration Risk Analysis
Management intuition is generally inferior to risk
analysis
Geotechnical excellence depends upon constant,
informed scrutiny of the exploration portfolio
Objective comparisons of geotechnical forecasts vs.
results - only way to achieve professional
improvement of predictive performance
Consequences of competitive sealed bidding the
winners curse
P. 13-14
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Pete Rose
Pete Rose

s Futuring
s Futuring
-
-
2
2
Rose, 2000 Rose, 2000
Recognizing that exploration is a long Recognizing that exploration is a long- -term activity term activity
plagued by short plagued by short - -term disruptions. Managers should term disruptions. Managers should resist resist
short short - -term reorganizations term reorganizations and departmental and departmental tweaking tweaking
Balancing Balancing
centralized control of exploration and financial musclewith
decentralized accountability, motivation, and risk aversion
Assisting companies to utilize Risk Analysis for Assisting companies to utilize Risk Analysis for New Plays New Plays
Helping managers to understand how much value they Helping managers to understand how much value they
usually surrender in return for usually surrender in return for comfortable risk comfortable risk
P. 13-14
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Course Objectives
Course Objectives
Best available methods
Best available methods
Trap volumetrics and HC charge for prospects
Potential field number and size for plays
Quantify all geologic risks/uncertainties
Quantify all geologic risks/uncertainties
Forms, guides for making judgments
Forms, guides for making judgments
Insights for:
Insights for:
Assessing assessments
Avoiding pitfalls
Highgrading exploration opportunities
Planning selectively
P. 13-14
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Course Objectives
Course Objectives
Provide knowledge and
Provide knowledge and
unique tools
unique tools
pre-drill assessment of potentially
recoverable oil and gas volumes
exploration prospects and plays
Focus on geologic concepts
Focus on geologic concepts
for assessment
for assessment
P. 13-14
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
2 Key Questions
2 Key Questions
Are any commercial O & G
Are any commercial O & G
fields present
fields present
?
?
What is probability?
How much O & G is
How much O & G is
present
present
?
?
Most likely amount
Range of reserves expected
P. 13-15
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Any fields present?
Any fields present?
Probability of meeting
Probability of meeting
minimum economic limit
minimum economic limit
Adequacy of basic
Adequacy of basic
controls
controls
Source
Reservoir
Trap
Recoverability
P. 13-15
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
How Much O & G?
How Much O & G?
Several methods used
Several methods used
Volumetrics & HC
Volumetrics & HC
charge recommended
charge recommended
for
for
prospects
prospects
Field number and size
Field number and size
recommended for
recommended for
plays
plays
P. 13-15
2002 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved INSERT FILE NAME Insert on Master Slide
Prospect Assessment
Prospect Assessment
Success
Success
-
-
meeting or exceeding
meeting or exceeding
minimum economic size
minimum economic size
Steps in assessment process
Steps in assessment process
Define minimum economic size
Select ranges for individual factors
Combine factors to derive assessment
curve
Estimate adequacy of achieving
minimum economic size
P. 13-16
Nobody is perfect!
Nobody is perfect!