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June 2010 Global Intelligence Alliance2010. All rights reserved. Contact: info@globalintelligence.com
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Table of ontents
!"ecutive #ummar$ Global %utloo& 'ar&et Characteristics ( !uro)e* +#A* Asia ,acific Conclusions A))endi" About GIA . 1/* 22* 2/ 20 12 1.
3he hite )a)er is )rovided as is* free of charge and ithout an$ arrant$ or guarantee. Global Intelligence Alliance acce)ts no res)onsibilit$ for errors or omissions* or for an$ loss or conse4uential loss arising as a result of decisions ta&en based on its contents. 2010 Global Intelligence Alliance. All rights reserved. 3his hite )a)er is co)$right* ho ever individual )ages or )ortions thereof ma$ be co)ied referencing 5Global Intelligence Alliance6 as the source.
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Introdu tion
3he global megatrends such as climate change are driving the increased ado)tion of rene able energ$ sources in general* hereas the )rice volatilit$* su))l$ issues and environmental ha7ards of fossil fuel )roduction are about to accelerate the )ace in the investments of non8fossil fuels )roduction in )articular. 9iogas* the most sustainable of biofuels* is in a starting )oint of an e")onential mar&et gro th curve. 3his )a)er ill cover the latest develo)ments and future scenarios of the ra)idl$ develo)ing biogas business* starting ith a global outloo& and going through s)ecial mar&et characteristics of !uro)e* +#A and Asia ,acific.
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A:
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distributing biogas
+nder an o)timistic scenario* the 2 9illion !+> )lant installations business to gro u) to 29illion b$ 2020.
#econdar$ )rofiteers
Global su))liers to )rofit out of increased demand for com)onents* services and chemicals
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#u))liers of )o er )lants and )rocess e4ui)ment 'aintenance* service and certification businesses Com)anies s)eciali7ed in environmental management Chemical com)anies develo)ing the )roduction $ield
and efficienc$
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!uro)ean com)anies and technologies ill be the ones to atch bet een 201082015,rice volatilit$ of gas and oil ill be the main drivers for the biogas industr$@ a sufficient )rice increase of gas and oil ill ma&e biogas )rofitable ever$ hereA6 Kim Sderman, Finnish Biogas Association
Asia ill be the main gro th area* installing basic sites on ;;3<=s and landfills
Global &utlook
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Climate change
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C%2 from
'ethane 12 C
Ditrous o"ide . C %thers 1 C
fossil fuels -B C
'ethane* &e$ com)onent of biogas is 21 times a more )o erful greenhouse gas than C%2 . uring the incineration of biogas! methane is turned into C"2
and #ater! thus reducing the negative im$act to the climate.
A chance to )rofit out of emissions trade carbon credits and government subsidies
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%il 1B C
Datural Gas 21 C
Duclear / C >ene ables* h$dro and other 0 C
:ue to the identical chemical com)osition EmethaneF u)graded biogas an be used as an alternative to all e"isting natural gas a))lications
A read$8to8use* economicall$ sustainable source of energ$ and a su)erior second generation trans)ortation fuelA
59iogas has better $ield )er Ga than ethanol or biodiesel* ma&ing it the most sustainable of biofuels.6 Kim Sderman, Finnish Biogas Association
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1BCH in munici)al
and industrial organic aste
.CH in se
age ;;3<=s
* !he higher utili"ation rate o# #armland as an energ resource could increase the share o# manure, agricultural crops and b $products
to %&', leaving organic (aste a )*' and ++!F,s a &' share Source: Biomass -aga"ine, .lobal +ater /ntelligence, American Biogas 0ouncil, Frost And Sullivan, European Biomass Association, Eurostat, /o(a State Universit
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Agriculture B-C
Anaerobic igestion
;;3< 1B C
?andfill .C
3o date onl$ of the )lants in German$ are feeding the gas directl$ in the e"isting natural gas net or&.
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BC
Global pla%ers to aim at te hnolog% and servi es to se ure profit 0 positive image
rivers and constraints
&e$roducable technologies and services for locally o$erating biogas $roducers'
Im)rovement of solid
Climate change 3he end of fossil oil and gas Increased utili7ation of technolog$ ?ac& of long term subsidies 6<ood to energ$6 in develo)ing countries 5Do in m$ bac&$ard6 effect
treatment )rocesses
,rocess develo)ment of anaerobic digestion 3echnololog$ for the )roduction of heat
a))lications
Installations to e"tract chemicals such as C%2 Condensation of u)graded biogas into li4uid
biogas
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With man% potential routes to market1 where do ompanies target limited resour es)
>a 'aterials +)stream ?ogistics 9iogas ,roduction 9iogas +)grade :o nstream ?ogistics !nd +ser
(echnology for the $roduction of heat and %rocess develo$ment of anaerobic digestion' /s there a technolog 3ump in sight2
3 energy out of biogas' +hat si"e o# po(er plants is re4uired2
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+
/s this a business opportunit 2 )$grade of biogas to suit e*isting natural gas
4 a$$lications'
li-uid biogas'
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The "23wide targets to fight the limate hange and the e#isting infrastru ture boost the business
A target to reduce greenhouse gases b$ 20C b$ 2020 (rans$ortation fuels need to be blended #ith rene#ables at an accelerated rate 3he initiatives are im)lemented through national legislation
Arable land available also for non.food $lants /igh tech industr$ )la$ers in energ$* chemistr$ and automotive industr$ A ell8established natural gas net#or0
!+ 3argets
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Infrastructure
German%1 the biogas market leader1 runs half of "urope(s 41555 biogas plants
'ost of the gas is currentl$ )roduced b$ inde$endent farmers out of biomass A feed.in tariff E<I3F ensures a reasonable )a$bac& time for investments E28- $earsF !"isting natural gas net#or0 acce)ts u)graded biogas 1arger! more centralized sites are being built 9iogas as a trans)ortation fuel is ta" free
,rocess &no 8ho J global $layers in the biogas )lant installations mar&et eg. !nvitec 9iogas* #chmac& 9iogas and 9iogas Dord 3he rural areas have a ne# source of income and Lobs as the )rofitabilit$ of the agriculture in general is decreasing %ther !uro)ean countries are starting to co$y the German model
2.
3.
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2
<I3=s e"ist in most !+ countries 8 their efficienc$ is rated B times higher to other government su))ort #econd generation biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel are blended ith fossil fuels. 3he e"isting fuel distribution infrastructure su))orts li4uid fuels over gas.
3#eden' Innovation
Communit$ buses
trans)ortation
3echnologies to e"tract chemicals out
ealth$
natural gas
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20
5Ital$ is a )ossible gro ing mar&et in regards of biogas utili7ation in trans)ortation* # eden as ell ( Cit$ buses running on natural gas. +K* <rance* #)ain J Ital$ ado)ting )arts of the German model.6 Andrea Horbelt, European Biogas Association
5,oland has lot=s of )lans and )otential but so far not that much action. :enmar& and Dor a$ are rising* so is # eden* at a high level.6 Kim Sderman, Finnish Biogas Association
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!uro)ean8st$le <I3=s for biogas in the +#: California* <lorida* Mermont and Ga aii 3he <I3=s are limited to a certain si7e of )o er )lants as )rivate
;A#GIDG3%D '%D3ADA D%>3G :AK%3A 'IDD!#%3A M3 I:AG% ;N%'IDG D!MA:A D!9>A#KA I%;A ID:IADA %GI% ;I#C%D#ID #%+3G :AK%3A 'ICGIGAD D!; N%>K >I ,!DD C%DD D!; J!>#!N :!?A;A>! KAD#A# ;M MI>GIDIA 'A>N?AD: DG 'A## 'AID!
%>!G%D
+3AG C%?%>A:%
I??ID%I#
CA?I<%>DIA
K!D3+CKN 3!DD!##!!
com)anies and individuals are encouraged to feed electricit$ into the )o er grid
?%+I#IADA
<?%>I:A
<ollo ed b$ the e"am)les of !uro)e and %ntario ECanadaF* local governments are discussing <I3=s in ;isconsin* Indiana* 'ichigan* 'innesota* 'aine and ;ashington.
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#o urc e: >e ne a
GA;AII
A?A#KA
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"nvironmental management is the driver to install new AD(s and landfill gas olle tors
+# farms )roduce 2Q manure than German$* but have toda$ onl$ 100 8 200 manure A:=s. 3he total mar&et si7e for biogas manure in the +# ould be .000 A:=s@ ca)acit$ that e4uals 2C of all electricit$ )roduction. 108$ear )a$bac& times not attracting investors for the energ$ cro) A:=s. -0C utili7ation rate of landfill gas. 10C utili7ation rate in ;;3< A:=s
In the absence of <I3=s in most states* the environmentall$ driven )roLects in munici)alities and industr$ are gro ing the business.
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In China* the &e$ )la$ers ado)ting biogas technolog$ are the ;;3<=s J landfills. Increasing demand for electricit$ in rural areas has s)un off biogas8based distributed generation initiatives.
Ja)an and #outh Korea are ado)ting biogas technologies at a high rate. 'ala$sia=s )alm oil residue re)resents a ell8 managed resource for biogas.
not to sur)ass China* India or even the +#A in the )roduction of biogas.
#ource: !nerg$ Information Administration* 3he De Nor& 3imes* <rost and #ullivan
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2B
Asian countries alread$ have high ado)tation rates of gas vehicles. 3he re)lacement of traditional fuels ill ta&e )lace onl$ after the )rofits available in )etrochemicals sur)ass the )rofits in electricit$ )roduction. In the absence of <I3=s this change ill be more ra)id than in !uro)e.
!.g. China=s target is to have 100 million rural residents using electricit$ generated ith biogas b$ 2020
;hen most of the economic aste* se age and manure resources is being utilili7ed* the use of non8edible biomass accelerates
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2.
!on lusions
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With man% potential routes to market1 where do ompanies target limited resour es)
Im$rovement of solid #aste and se#age
>
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a limited mar&et
(echnology for the $roduction of heat and energy out of biogas' +hat si"e po(er plants re4uired2 o# is
Condensation of u$graded biogas into li-uid biogas' +ho to pro#it out o# higher energ concentration2
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get* the better the efficienc$ of electricit$ generation and heat recover$.6 Fredri1 +ilenius, +7rtsil7
(he Anheuser.?usch bre#ery in Gouston +# ill begin using landfill biogas as an alternative fuel source. 3he gas ill be carried through a )i)eline to the Anheuser8 9usch bre er$ to hel) generate steam energ$ for the bre er$=s )o er )lant. 'ore than -- )ercent of the bre er$=s fuel demand ill be su))lied b$ biogas. Environmental ;eader <=>?><**=
&hodia announces its first business develo$ment investment in biogas technology* b$ ac4uiring !concern Grou)=s )artici)ation in si" )ilot biogas )roduction )roLects located in China and Mietnam. 6hodia ?>@><**=
:almart has com$leted biogas installations at t o stores in southern California* each at 200&;* generating a))ro"imatel$ 1.2 million &;h annuall$. !ach of these sites has the )otential to eliminate 1 million )ounds of C%2 annuall$ hen )o ered b$ biogas. Bloomenerg >com
GE biogas engines to be used in Chinese $ro7ect to )o er a Chinese co manure8based biogas )roLect. 3he manure from the 2-0*000 co s at the ?iaoning Guishan <arm in #hen$ang* China* ill be converted into biogas through G!Rs four engines. 3he energ$ )roduced ill be sold to the state grid in China. Bloomberg &>&><*)*
3chmac0 ?iogas AG has sold a + 9: biogas feed.in $ro7ect to >!DI%D 9iogas GmbG J Co. KG at a )rice of a))ro". !+> 11.2 million. 3he ra materials ill be trans)orted over an average distance of less than 20 &ilometres. Financial>de )?>A><**= (he construction of a 1, million Euro $lant for 1i-uified ?iogas in 3#eden has started. 3he facilit$* hich is one of the orldRs first )lants for ?i4uefied 9iogas* is scheduled for com)letion in inter 2010I2011. BiogasmaB <<>A><*)*
&oyal 39 ;.@. announces an agreement to ac-uire the enzymes su$$lier ?io$ract Gmb/ * based in 9erlin. 3he ac4uisition of )rivatel$ held 9io)ract ill serve as an entr$ )oint for :#' into the )romising biogas mar&et. ACo->com <>?><**=
Appendi#
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3. 3he measurement of the utili7ed biogas )otential challenging as ell 'ost commonl$* there is an e4ui)ment to convert gas into electricit$* thus the use of ;atts E;F to illustrate the net and gross
ca)acities is Lustified. 3he amount of electricit$ that is not used on8site is fed into the grid. 3his value is usuall$ measured and re)orted. Gere &ilo att hours E&;hF are used in 4uantification.
3he 4uantification of heat )roduction can onl$ be done to an e"tent. 3he heat energ$ out of the electricit$ generation is usuall$
utili7ed either on site or used b$ a nearb$ industrial o)eration. %nl$ in some cases* the heat is contributing a distant heating net or& and a reliable re)ort e"ists.
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1-
A biogas u)grade o)eration is actuall$ a )etrochemical refiner$ and a suitable measures are cubic meter Em1F and the tonne of oil e4uivalent EtoeF In flaring the gas* the )lant is not contributing energ$ at all and measurements rarel$ e"ist.
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!nerg$ industr$ re)orts about biogas tend to 4uantif$ o)erations ith one unit onl$ Eeither ;* &;h* m1 or toeF thus creativit$ is re4uired to find descri)tive methods to understand )otentials of various end uses of biogas. <or e"am)le* the use of electricit$ units tend to neglect the use of biogas as a second generation biofuel. Joule EJF ould be a fair unit to 4uantif$ each biogas energ$ a))lication. 3hree as)ects should be highlighted hen discussing the biogas mar&et 1. A relative number that is mostl$ referred to in mar&et re)orts is the total value of ne installations )er $ear. 3his is an
interesting figure as the )lant installations su))lier is loo&ing at the mar&et but does not tell an$thing about the value of services and maintenance of e"isting o)erations.
2. 3heoreticall$* the annual revenue of a biogas )lant can be calculated ith a sim)le formula as the local )rice of gas or
electricit$ is &no n. 3his value should be added ith ra material costs Eeither negative* )ositive or 7eroF* trans)ortation costs and the average value of the b$8)roducts Eorganic fertili7er* C%2* %2 etcF to ma&e it interesting for a com)an$ in
the biogas )roduction business. 3. <or )olitical decisionma&ers the labor intensit$ of biogas )roduction Ee.g. em)lo$mentIGJF in com)arison to other rene ables
ould be of interest as ell.
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1/
$our es
In al)habetical order:
American 9iogas Council AOo'.com 9ioc$cle 9iogasma" 9iomass 'aga7ine 9loomberg 9loomenerg$ !nerg$ Information Administration !nvironmental ?eader !uro)ean 9iomass Association !urostat <inancial.de <rost and #ullivan
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Global ;ater Intelligence Gelmut Kaiser Consultanc$ Io a #tate +niversit$ >ene able Cogen Asia >ene able !nerg$ ;orld #candinavian G3# 3he De Nor& 3imes +# !nvironmental ,rotection Agenc$ +# :e)artment of !nerg$ ;i&i)edia
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