BFW 40103- Water Resources E i Engineering i

Chapter 4 Ch 4: Rainfall Runoff Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

Prepared by: Mohd Shalahuddin Adnan, , PhD

Lesson goals

At the end of this topic, topic student should be able to:-

Know the rainfall-runoff relationship

Apply pp y and analysis y the concept p of rainfall-runoff analysis

Introduction
In many hydrologic engineering designs, we need to predict peak discharge or hydrograph resulting from a certain type of storm event. For this purpose, some kind of rainfall-runoff model is needed to translate rainfall input to produce discharge hydrograph. Reliable estimates of stream flow generated from catchments are required as part of the information sets that help policy makers make informed decisions on water planning and management. management The characteristics of the streamflow time series that influence water resources system modelling and planning can include the sequencing of flows on daily and longer time steps, steps spatial and temporal variability of flows, seasonal distribution and characteristics of high and low flows. A range g of methods are available to estimate streamflow from catchments, using observed data wherever possible, or estimating by empirical and statistical techniques, and more commonly using rainfallrunoff models.

Introduction

Rainfall

Watershed

Runoff

Pic source; http://distributedrr.wikidot.com/

Rainfall

Rainfall-Runoff Model

Runoff

Total streamflow during a precipitation event includes the baseflow existing in the basin prior to the storm and the runoff due to the g given storm p precipitation. p Total streamflow hydrographs are usually conceptualized as being composed of: Direct Runoff Runoff, which is composed of contributions from surface runoff and quick interflow. Unit hydrograph analysis refers only to direct runoff. Baseflow, Baseflo which hich is composed of contrib contributions tions from delayed interflow and groundwater runoff.

100.0000

200.0000

300.0000

400.0000

600.0000

700.0000

Runoff u o Hydrograph yd og ap

500 0000 500.0000

0.0000

Surface Response

Baseflow

0. 00 0 0. 0 16 00 0. 32 0 0. 0 48 00 0. 64 0 0. 0 80 00 0. 96 0 1. 0 12 0 1. 0 28 00 1. 44 0 1. 0 60 00 1. 76 0 1. 0 92 00 2. 08 0 2. 0 24 00 2. 40 0 2. 0 56 0 2. 0 72 00 2. 88 0 3. 0 04 00 3. 20 0 3. 0 36 00 3. 52 0 3. 0 68 00

Estimation of Streamflow
A hydrograph

is a plot of river discharge versus time. A streamflow hydrograph comprises overland flow, i t fl interflow and d baseflow b fl generated t d by b precipitation i it ti flows. A hydrograph resulting from a single precipitation storm is known as a storm hydrograph.
Rising limb Crest Recession limb

Discha arge

Qt Q0K t
Qt = discharge t time units after Q0 Q0 = initial discharge at t = 0 K = recession constant

Time

Hydrographs y g p are also described in terms of the following g time characteristics:

Time to Peak, tp: Time from the beginning of the rising limb to the occurrence of the peak discharge. The time to peak is largely determined by drainage g density, y slope, p channel characteristics such as drainage roughness, and soil infiltration characteristics. Rainfall distribution in space also affects the time to peak. Time of Concentration, tc: Time required for water to travel from the most hydraulically remote point in the basin to the basin outlet. For rainfall events of very long duration, the time of concentration is associated with the time required for the system to achieve the maximum or equilibrium discharge. The drainage characteristics of length and slope, together with the hydraulic characteristics of the flow paths, determine the time of concentration.

Lag Time, tl: Time between the center of mass of the effective rainfall hyetograph and the center of mass of the direct runoff hydrograph. The basin lag is an important concept in linear modeling of basin response. The lag time is a parameter that appears often in theoretical and conceptual models of basin behavior. However, it is sometimes difficult to measure in real world situations. Many empirical equations have been proposed in the literature. The simplest of these equations computes the basin lag as a power function of the basin area. Time Base, tb: Duration of the direct runoff hydrograph.

Diff Different t of fh hydrograph d h based b d on 1mm 1 or 1 in i of f rainfall i f ll

1 in. or 1 mm of net precipitation in period tr tr tc tp lag Unit hydrograph 1 in. or mm of net precipitation in each period of tr B tr Runoff hydrograph Unit hydrograph

R Rainfall intensity

R Rainfall intensity

A tr

Discharge D

Discharge D

Unit hydrograph

Discharge D

B - 2 units of net precipitation Runoff hydrograph B

R Rainfall intensity

A tr

A Time T

Time T

Time T

Unit hydrograph

Runoff hydrograph for 2 units of precipitation

Runoff hydrograph for 2 consecutive periods of tr duration

Unit hydrograph analysis

Sherman (1932) first proposed the unit hydrograph concept. t The Unit Hydrograph (UH) of a watershed is defined as the direct runoff hydrograph resulting from a unit volume of excess rainfall of constant intensity and uniformly distributed over the drainage area. The duration of the unit volume of excess or effective rainfall, sometimes referred to as the effective duration, defines and labels the particular unit hydrograph. hydrograph The unit volume is usually considered to be associated with 1 cm (1 inch) of effective rainfall distributed uniformly over the basin area area.

Unit hydrograph, UH(,t)

Assumptions p for a UH

The effective rainfall has a constant intensity within the effective duration duration. Effective rainfall is uniformly distributed over the whole watershed. The time base of the DRH resulting from an excess rainfall of given duration is constant. The ordinates of all DRHs of a common time base are directly proportional to the total amount of direct runoff.

Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (IUH)

Instantaneous unit hydrograph is the direct runoff hydrograph resulted from an Impulse function rainfall, i.e., one unit of effective rainfall at a time instance.

Hydrograph Separation
There are 2 common approaches to separate the b baseflow fl f from the th direct di t runoff: ff 1. Recession curve - using the recession curve equation 2 Arbitrary approach 2. - of arbitrary nature using many techniques

Example 4.1
A set of daily streamflow data at a site of drainage area 6500 km2 are provided in table below. Separate p p the baseflow from the direct runoff hydrograph (DRH) by the recession curve method. Determine the equivalent depth of the direct runoff.
Time (days) 1 2 3 4 5 Flow (m3/s) 1600 1550 5000 11300 8600 Time (days) 6 7 8 9 10 Flow (m3/s) 6500 5000 3800 2800 2200 Time (days) 11 12 13 14 15 Flow (m3/s) 1850 1600 1330 1300 1280

100000

Flow (m / /s)

10000

1000 0 2 4 6 8 Time (days) 10 12 14 16

100000

Flow (m m /s)

10000

1000 0 2 4 6 8 Ti Time (days) (d ) 10 12 14 16

Computation of direct runoff volume

Time (days) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Total
Volume of runoff 33740

Direct runoff (m3/s) 0 0 3400 9700 7020 4970 3500 2320 1350 790 450 240 0

Average runoff (m3/s) 0 1700 6550 8360 5995 4235 2910 1835 1070 620 345 120

Duration (days) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

Runoff Time (m3day/s) 0 1700 6550 8360 5995 4235 2910 1835 1070 620 345 120 33740

24 60 60 2891.8 10 6 m3 1 2891.8 10 6 runoff volume 0.445 m Runoff depth drainage area 6500 10 6

Separation by Arbitrary Approach

Method 1 - join the beginning of the direct runoff (point A) to the end of direct runoff (point B) by a straight line. Simplest method. If point B is not well defined, draw a horizontal line from point A.
12000 10000 8000 Flow (m /s)
3

6000 4000 2000 0 0 2 4 6 8 Time (days) 10 12 14 16

Method 2 - extend the recession curve before the storm to point C beneath the peak. Connect point C to point D by a straight line. Point D on the hydrograph represents N days after peak, given by the formula N aA 0.2 where N = time (days), A = drainage area, a = 0.8 (if A is km2) or 1.0 (if A is mi2)
12000 10000 8000 Flow (m m /s)
3

N (days)

6000 4000 2000 0 0 2 4 6 8 Time (days) 10 12 14 16

Method 3 - extend the recession curve backward to point E below the inflection point. C Connect t A to t E by b a straight t i ht line li or an arbitrary bit shape. h
12000 10000 8000 Flow (m /s) F
3

6000 4000 2000 0 0 2 4 6 8 Time (days) 10 12 14 16

Hydrograph y g p development p
A hydrograph resulting from an isolated, intense, short-duration storm of nearly uniform distribution in space and time is most satisfactory. The duration of the unit hydrograph will be the same as the duration of the storm that had produce the storm hydrograph. The duration of the unit hydrograph can be adjusted by the technique of superposition. The procedure to derive a unit hydrograph is: 1. The hydrograph is plotted. The baseflow is separated to obtain the direct runoff hydrograph (DRH). 2. The area under the DRH that represents the volume of surface runoff is computed. The volume of runoff is converted to a depth Pn using

V Pn A

where Pn = runoff depth, V = volume under the hydrograph, A = drainage area of the basin

3. Each of the ordinates of the DRH is divided by Pn. The result is a unit 3 hydrograph of duration equal to the duration of the storm.

The main factors affecting g hydrograph y g p shape p are:

Drainage

characteristics: basin area, basin shape, basin slope, soil type and land use, drainage density, and drainage network topology. Most changes in land use tend to increase the amount of runoff for a given storm. characteristics: rainfall intensity, duration, and their spatial and temporal distribution; and storm motion as storms moving in the general downstream motion, direction tend to produce larger peak flows than storms moving upstream.

Rainfall

Drainage g types yp and hydrograph y g p shape p

Also need to consider the storm duration and time of concentration.

Factors that influence surface runoff

Physical-geographic factors (natural, non-manageable)

Climatic (meteorological):

Precipitation
Type of precipitation (rain, snow, sleet, etc.) The Th rate t (amount) ( t) and d intensity i t it Duration of rainfall Direction of storm movement Distribution of rainfall over the drainage basin

Previous weather (e.g. precipitation that occurred earlier and resulting soil moisture) Time of year/season
Summer

- evapotranspiration rates higher, photosynthesis in plants - at a maximum

Physical-geographic factors (natural, non-manageable) Characteristics of watershed

Watershed area volume and culmination of total runoff Shape of watershed time of concentration to the outlet Elevation Slope of the area
The steeper the slopes, the lower the rate of infiltration and faster the rate of run-off when the soil is saturated (saturated overland flow) Strong influence on erosion and transport processes

Length of slope and length of valley lag time to the valley and to the outlet

Physical-geographic factors (natural, non-manageable) Geological and soil characteristics

Bedrock p permeability y - Run-off will occur q quickly y where impermeable rocks are exposed at the surface or quickly when they underlay soils (limited amount of infiltration). Soil permeability - Soils with large amounts of clay do absorb moisture but only very slowly - therefore f their permeability is low. Thickness - The deeper the soil the more water can be absorbed. Infiltration capacity p y - Soils which have larger g p particle sizes ( (e.g g those derived from the weathering of sandstones) have larger infiltration capacities. The infiltration capacity is among others dependent on the porosity of a soil which determines the water storage capacity and affects the resistance of water to flow into deeper layers. Initial conditions (e.g. the degree of saturation of the soil and aquifers) if )

Anthropogenic factors (manageable)

Land use (e.g. agriculture, urban development, forestry operations)
Human activities - development and urbanization: imperviousness - natural landscape is replaced by impervious surfaces f (roads, buildings, parking lots) - reduce infiltration and accelerate runoff to ditches and streams removal of vegetation and soil constructing drainage networks and underground sewer increase runoff volumes and shorten runoff time into streams -> the peak discharge, volume, and frequency of floods increase in nearby streams

Agriculture

Irrigation and drainage ditches increasing the speed of water transfer contour tillage Tillage on wet land compresses the subsoil - creating a "plough pan" decreasing water holding, infiltration and increasing run-off/erosion.

Extreme of rain events

Statistic analysis of maximum rainfall events IDF curves:

I [mm/min]

Return period i d [years]

relations between intensities, duration and frequency of rain events

Intensity I (mm/min) Duration D (min) Frequency F (1/years)

D [min]

probability of different rain event intensities for different durations (5, 10, 15, 30 minutes, 24 hours) an each curve represents a certain frequency of occurrence or a certain t i return t period i d expressed d in terms of years.

100 90 80 70

H1d,N [mm]

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

N value:

the average over a number of years of observation Value that is exceeded ones per N years (return period) Rainfall depth (mm) of certain duration (e.g. 24 hours) whose probability of appearance is 1/N = Frequency (1/years)

N [years]

N [years] H1d, 1d,N N [mm] mm]

2 36.3

10 60.6

20 70.4

50 82.6

100 92.1

Extreme discharge
Extreme values - the average over a
number of years of observation
25 20

Flood frequency curve

Maximum ( (N value) )

QN( (m3/s): )

QN (m /s)

15

10

Value that is exceeded ones per N years (return period) - statistically Discharge g whose probability p y of appearance is 1/N = Frequency (1/years) Are required for the design of dam, spillways, nuclear power stations, major bridges important for assessing risk for highly unusual events, such as 100-year floods. ( (m3/s) )

probability distributions
0 20 40 60 80 100 120

N (ye a rs )

N (years) QN (m3/s)
600

1 6

2 8

10

20

50

100

10.9 13.2 15.6

18.8 21.5

500

Minimal Qm(l/s):
Value (discharge) that is exceeded m-days per a year statistically Important for dry seasons, ground water storage
m [day] 30 60 Qm [l/s] 507 350

Discharge Qm [l/s]

400

300

200

100

0 0 100 200 T im e m [ d a y ] 300

90

120 218

150 180

180 150

210 125

240 104

270 85

300 68

330 50

335 47

364 35

270

The surface runoff process

Rainfall excess = rainfall - losses =
= rainfall - interception - surface retention - infiltration

Direct runoff = surface runoff + interflow

Interception + retention t ti

Direct runoff

Hydrograph 11.-13.8. 11. 13.8. 2002 (Polenice catchment)

220 200 180 160
Rainfall Hs=133,2mm outlet of Polenice The confluence Outlet Chvalinsk stream Outlet Polenice stream above the confluence

0 0.5 1 15 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 12:45

4 4.5 20:45 4:45 12:45 20:45 4:45 12:45 20:45

Time (h:min)

Inte ensity of ra ainfall (mm/ /10min)

Discha arge (m /s)

Some Rainfall-Runoff Rainfall Runoff Models

Phi-Index H t E Horton Equation ti SCS Curve Number Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA)

Constant Infiltration Rate

A constant infiltration rate is the most simple of the methods It is often referred to as a phi methods. phi-index index or f f-index index. In some modeling situations it is used in a conservative mode. The saturated soil conductivity may be used for the infiltration rate. The obvious weakness is the inability to model changes in infiltration rate. The Th phi-index hi i d may also l b estimated be i d from f i di id l individual storm events by looking at the runoff hydrograph.

Exponential Decay - Horton

This is purely a mathematical function - of the following form:

f f (f f )e kt i c o c
fo fi = infiltration capacity at time, t fc = final infiltration capacity fo = initial infiltration capacity fc

SCS Curve Number

Soil Conservation Service is an empirical method of estimating EXCESS PRECIPITATION We can imply that precipitation precipitation = infiltration/retention : P - Pe = F minus excess

Determine Curve Number

Once the hydrologic soil group has been determined, the curve number of the site is determined by crosscross referencing land use and hydrologic condition to the soil group - SAMPLE
Land use and treatment or Hydrologic practice condition A Hydrologic soil group B C D

Fallow Straight row Row Crops Straight row Straight row Contoured

---Poor Good Poor

77 72 67 70

86 81 78 79

91 88 85 84

94 91 89 88

Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA)

The Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SACSMA) is a conceptual model of soil moisture accounting that uses empiricism and lumped coefficients to attempt to mimic the physical constraints of water movement in a natural system.

Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA)

Model Objectives
Most of the purposes of rainfall-runoff modeling relate to providing information to support pp decision making g for some water management g p policy. y In p particular, this can involve: i. ii. iii. Understanding the catchment yield, and how this varies in time and space particularly in response to climate variability: seasonally space, seasonally, inter interannually, and inter-decadally Estimating the relative contributions of individual catchments to water availability over a much larger region, e.g. valley or basin scale. Estimating how this catchment yield and water availability might change over time in response to changes in the catchment, such as increasing development of farm dams, or changes in land-use and land management. management Infill gaps caused by missing or poor quality data in an observed data series for a gauged catchment. Estimate flows for a gauged catchment for periods before the observed fl flow record d started t t d or after ft when h the th observed b d fl flow record d ends. d Estimate flows for an ungauged catchment.

iv. v. vi.

Data Requirements q for Models

Rainfall Data (Major Input) Soils Data (Infiltration (Infiltration, Runoff) DEM channel network (Ri (River routing) ti ) Vegetation Data (For ET) GWT Data (Saturated zone flow) Historical RainfallStreamflow Data (Calibration) Evaporation Data (ET)

More Physically-based means more data requirement More Conceptual requires less data