Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
Period (t)
4593
2866
3095
7487
7580
3221
1947
2104
8578
6585
4726
3910
5699
6639
4930
3439
Step 1:
ME
-3985
-3719
-1631
3577
1881
-3418
-2983
-1335
MAD
3985
3719
1631
3577
1881
3418
2983
1335
MAPE
87%
130%
53%
48%
25%
106%
153%
63%
Use the exponential smoothing formula to calculate the forecast for week 2.
of 0.5.
Exponential smoothing formula:
C5
Step 2:
Step 5:
Step 6:
= C4-C5
Find the mean absolute deviation, this is the absolute difference between th
and the demand forecasted. Therefore all deviations are positive.
Mean Absolute Deviation
C7
Step 4:
= (0.5*B4)+((1-0.5)*B5)
Find the mean error, this is the difference between the actual demand and th
forecasted
Mean error:
= Actual Demand - Forecasted Demand
C6
Step 3:
Copy the formulas across to find the forecast, ME, MAD, MAPE until week 52.
Move to sheet Exercise 2, using the tabs below
0.867515785
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
7184
2968
1845
1994
5190
1845
2222
2400
8723
4489
2800
3026
5855
2771
4978
3973
2909
2451
3821
2833
2527
2464
5593
5041
3921
3473
4413
-2010
-2128
-915
2739
-1976
-611
-127
6259
-1104
-2241
-895
2382
4413
2010
2128
915
2739
1976
611
127
6259
1104
2241
895
2382
61%
68%
115%
46%
53%
107%
27%
5%
72%
25%
80%
30%
41%
Correct
Correct
Correct
Correct
0.868
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
13118
5400
3370
3640
14710
6057
3778
2041
7671
6317
4664
8891
7146
5258
4449
9579
7818
5798
3920
5795
8454
-3491
-3776
-1618
10261
-3522
-4040
-3757
3751
522
8454
3491
3776
1618
10261
3522
4040
3757
3751
522
64%
65%
112%
44%
70%
58%
107%
184%
49%
8%
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
3941
4257
8238
6056
4999
4628
14917
6142
3832
4140
13588
5595
6433
10675
8408
6120
5130
9359
-2115
-742
3610
8484
-4533
-4576
-1980
8458
-3764
2115
742
3610
8484
4533
4576
1980
8458
3764
54%
17%
44%
57%
74%
119%
48%
62%
67%
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
3491
3770
9121
11745
4836
3017
3260
10033
4130
7477
5484
4627
6874
9310
7073
5045
4152
7093
-3986
-1714
4494
4871
-4474
-4056
-1785
5881
-2963
3986
1714
4494
4871
4474
4056
1785
5881
2963
114%
45%
49%
41%
93%
134%
55%
59%
72%
51
52
2577
278
5611
4094
-3034
-3816
3034
3816
118%
1373%
A
1
AA
AB
AC
AD
AE
AF
AG
AH
AI
AJ
AK
AL
AM
AN
AO
AP
AQ
AR
AS
AT
AU
AV
AW
AX
AY
AZ
BA
Exponential Smoothing
2
3
Period (t)
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
Actual Demand
11155
4593
2866
3095
7487
7580
3221
1947
2104
7184
2968
1845
1994
5190
1845
2222
2400
8723
4489
2800
3026
5855
13118
5400
3370
3640
14710
6057
3778
2041
7671
6317
3941
4257
8238
14917
6142
3832
4140
13588
5595
3491
3770
9121
11745
4836
3017
3260
10033
4130
2577
278
Forecast
6000
7547
6660
5522
4794
5602
6195
5303
4296
3639
4702
4182
3481
3035
3681
3130
2858
2721
4521
4512
3998
3706
4351
6981
6507
5566
4988
7905
7350
6279
5007
5806
5960
5354
5025
5989
8667
7910
6686
5922
8222
7434
6251
5507
6591
8137
7147
5908
5114
6589
5852
4869
-3356
-1836
-908
-3275
-4591
3275
4591
ME
-2954
-3794
-2427
2693
1978
-2974
-2192
3545
-1734
-2337
-1487
2155
-458
6002
-32
-1712
-972
2149
8767
-1581
-3137
-1926
9722
-1848
-3572
-4238
2664
511
-2019
-1097
3213
8928
-2525
-4078
-2546
7666
-2627
-3943
-2481
3614
5154
-3301
-4130
-2648
4919
-2459
MAD
2954
3794
2427
2693
1978
2974
3356
2192
3545
1734
2337
1487
2155
1836
908
458
6002
32
1712
972
2149
8767
1581
3137
1926
9722
1848
3572
4238
2664
511
2019
1097
3213
8928
2525
4078
2546
7666
2627
3943
2481
3614
5154
3301
4130
2648
4919
2459
MAPE
64%
132%
78%
36%
26%
92%
172%
104%
49%
58%
127%
75%
42%
100%
41%
19%
69%
1%
61%
32%
37%
67%
29%
93%
53%
66%
31%
95%
208%
35%
8%
51%
26%
39%
60%
41%
106%
62%
56%
47%
113%
66%
40%
44%
68%
137%
81%
49%
60%
43
46
49
127% 1652%
0.3
Alpha Factor
10
11
52
EXERCISE 2:
Change the alpha factor to values between 0 and 1. Try to find the best alpha factor.
12
13
16000
14
14000
15
16
12000
17
10000
Demand
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1
10
13
16
19
Actual Demand
22
25
28
Week
Forecast
31
34
37
40
52
Linear (Forecast)
Exercise 2
Reflection:
Question 1a)
Question 1b)
Is exponential smoothing a good technique for using in the aerial simulation game?
Why?
More react to recent changes rather than all past observation.
Question 2
No
Actual Demand
21709
20235
14101
12014
15626
20949
27777
19807
Forecast
21661
21676
21244
19101
16975
16570
17884
20852
-1441
-7143
-7087
-1349
4379
9893
-1045
ME
MAD
MAPE
Alpha Factor
50.7%
59.0%
8.6%
20.9%
35.6%
5.3%
0.3
EXERCISE 4:
Change the alpha factor to values between 0 and 1. Try to find the best alpha fa
35000
30000
Demand
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1
Month
Actual Demand
Forecast
10
10
11
12
13
31353
27702
21977
22858
17018
20538
23783
24958
24064
23702
10815
3919
-2981
-1206
-6684
10814.7
34.5%
14.1%
11
12
13
13.6%
5.3%
39.3%
10
11155
4593
2866
3095
7487
7580
3221
1947
2104
7184
6204.7
3518
4483
6054
6096
4249
2424
ME
-3110
3969
3097
-2833
-4149
-2145
4760
MAD
3110
3969
3097
2833
4149
2145
4760
MAPE
100%
53%
41%
66%
182818 5697%
Step 1:
Step 2:
Find the mean error, this is the difference between the actual demand and
forecasted
Mean error:
E6
Step 3:
= SUM(B4:D4)/3
]
Find the mean absolute deviation, this is the absolute difference between
demand and the demand forecasted. Therefore all deviations are positive.
Mean Absolute Deviation
= ABS (Mean Error)
E7
= ABS(E6)
Step 4:
E8
Step 5:
= E7/E4
Copy the formulas across to find the forecast, ME, MAD, MAPE until week 52.
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
2968
1845
1994
5190
1845
2222
2400
8723
4489
2800
3745
4085
3999
2269
3010
3010
3086
2156
4448
-777
-2240
-2005
2921
-1165
-788
-686
6567
777
2240
2005
2921
56%
23
24
25
3026
5855 13118
5400
3370
5204
5337
3438
3894
7333
8124
41
-2404
-2311
2417
9224
-1933
-4754
6567 40.67
2404
2311
2417
9224
1933
4754
63%
75%
86%
76%
41%
70%
36% 141%
35%
29%
1%
22
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
3640 14710
6057
3778
2041
7671
6317
3941
7296
4137
7240
8136
8182
3959
4497
-3656
10573
-1183
-4358
-6141
3712
3656 10573
1183
4358
6141
100%
72%
35
36
37
38
39
40
4257
8238 14917
6142
3832
4140 13588
5343
5976
4838
5479
9137
9766
8297
4705
1820
-1402
-1719
3400
9438
-2995
-5934
-4157
8883
3712
1820
1402
1719
3400
9438
2995
5934
4157
8883
48%
29%
36%
40%
41%
63%
65%
41
42
43
5595
3491
7187
44
45
46
47
3770
9121 11745
4836
7774
7558
4285
5461
-1592
-4283
-3788
4836
1592
4283
3788
48
49
50
51
52
3017
3260 10033
4130
2577
278
8212
8567
6533
3704
5437
5808
5580
6284
-3376
-5550
-3273
6329
-1307
-3231
-5302
4836
6284
3376
5550
3273
6329
1307
3231
5302
53%
54%
63%
32% 125%
1907%
11155
4593
2866
3095
7487
7580
3221
1947
2104
7184
2968
1845
1994
5190
1845
2222
2400
8723
4489
2800
3026
5855
13118
5400
3370
3640
14710
6057
3778
2041
7671
6317
3941
4257
8238
14917
6142
3832
4140
13588
5595
3491
3770
9121
11745
4836
3017
3260
10033
4130
Current Year
12500
5200
3600
4800
6000
8500
4700
3200
3200
7600
3300
2400
51
52
2577
278