The Market For Regional Transport Aircraft

The Market for Regional
Transport Aircraft
Product Code #F612
A Special Focused Market Segment Analysis by:

Civil Aircraft Forecast
Analysis 2
The Market for Regional Transport
Aircraft - 2008-2017
Table of Contents
Executive Summary .................................................................................................................................................4
Figure 1 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph).................5
Figure 2 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph)..........6
Figure 3 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Pie Chart) ..................6
Figure 4 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Pie Chart)............7
Figure 5 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft
Unit Statistics % Market Share by Segment 2008-2017 (Pie Chart) .............................................8
Figure 6 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft
Value Statistics % Market Share by Segment 2008-2017 (Pie Chart)...........................................8
Introduction................................................................................................................................................................9
Methodology ..............................................................................................................................................................9
Analysis.....................................................................................................................................................................10
Table 1 - The Market for 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft
Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017......................................................19
Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017 ......................................................20
Figure 7 - 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph).......................22
Figure 8 - 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph)................22
Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017..........................................23
Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017 ..........................................24
Figure 9 - 1-19 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft
Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters 2008-2017 (Pie Chart).................................25
Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters 2008-2017 (Pie Chart)................................25
Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017 ......................................................28
Figure 11 - 20-30 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph)...................29
Figure 12 - 20-30 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph) ............29
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20 08

Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017..........................................30
Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017 ..........................................30
Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters 2008-2017 (Pie Chart) ...............................31
Value Statistics by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017.....................................................35
Unit Production % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017........................................37
Value Statistics % Market Share by Headquarters/Company 2008 - 2017.........................................37
Figure 17 - 31-50 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft,
Unit Production by Headquarters/Company/Program 2008 - 2017....................................................41
Figure 23 - 76-130 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph).................56
Figure 24 - 76-130 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph) ..........56
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20 08

Market Statistics .....................................................................................................................................................60
Table 21 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft
Figure 27 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Unit Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph).............68
Figure 28 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft, Value of Production 2008-2017 (Bar Graph)......68
Figure 29 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft,
Figure 30 - The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft,
Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................................................74
* * *
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20 08
Product Code F612 The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft
PROGRAMS
The following reports are included in this section: (Note: a single report may cover several programs.)
Airbus A318
Aircraft Industries L 410/420
Antonov An-148
Antonov/PZL Mielec An-28/An-38
ATR Series
AVIC I ARJ21
B-N Group Turbine Islander
Bombardier CRJ Regional Jets
Bombardier CSeries
Bombardier Q Series
EADS CASA C-212
Embraer 170/175/190/195
Embraer ERJ 135/140/145
Ilyushin II-114
Pilatus PC-12
Sukhoi Superjet 100
Tupolev Tu-334
Xi’an MA60/MA600
©
20 08
Product Code F612 The Market for Regional Transport Aircraft
Introduction
Regional airlines can often find opportunities for growth turboprops. These forecasts are shown in both actual
during times when mainline carriers are suffering. Such units produced and the monetary value of that produc-
was the case in 2001 when a collapse in air traffic tion. The forecasts are also used to calculate projected
spurred major network carriers to dump capacity and cut market shares for manufacturers.
back flight schedules. Regional airlines were then able
In the current competitive environment, it is becoming
to fill the resultant gaps in service, kicking off an era of
increasingly difficult to draw a clear and unambiguous
strong growth in the regional sector.
line between the regional aircraft market and the large
At the present time, major airlines are once again in airliner market. Regional jets seating more than 100
trouble. Unlike 2001, though, regional carriers are passengers compete for sales with narrowbody airliners
feeling pain as well. And this is occurring at a time from companies such as Airbus and Boeing. For
when the regional sector itself is undergoing a transfor- example, the Embraer 195 can accommodate as many as
mation of sorts. Due to changing business relationships 122 passengers. While its direct competitor is the
with their major airline partners, many regionals have Airbus A318 (which we categorize as a regional jet), it
been forced to alter and adjust the business strategies also competes to some extent against the Airbus A319
under which they operate. and the Boeing 737-700.
In the midst of all this turbulence (and partly as a result The launch of Bombardier’s new 100-145 seat CSeries
of it), the regional aircraft manufacturing industry is family of aircraft further blurs the line between the two
changing. New players are entering the market that are categories. Not only will the CSeries take on the A318
looking to take market share away from Bombardier and and the Embraer 190 and 195, it will also directly
Embraer. Regional jet demand is shifting upward compete with various Airbus and Boeing narrowbodies.
toward 90-seat and larger aircraft. Meanwhile, turbo-
Thus, considerable competitive overlap now exists
prop airliners are experiencing a strong revival of
between the top end of the regional jet market and the
market interest and demand.
lower end of the large airliner market. Nevertheless, the
All of these trends and factors are explored in depth in two markets remain sufficiently distinct from one
this new market analysis from Forecast International. another that a separate analysis is required in order to do
Accompanying this analysis are line-by-line, 10-year justice to the regional aircraft market.
production forecasts for both regional jets and regional
* * *
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20 08
Embraer 170/175/190/195
Outlook Unit Production Forecast

2008-2017
 AR versions of the 170 and the 175 have been launched 160
140
 Production ramp-up difficulties for the 190/195 have 120
been overcome 100
80
 Lineage 1000 corporate jet variant made first flight in 60
2007 40
20
0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Units
Units 157 145 138 131 137 134 133 133 133 129
Orientation
Description. Twin-turbofan-powered regional trans- Application. Scheduled and non-scheduled regional
port aircraft. passenger transportation.
Sponsor. The 170/175/190/195 series is sponsored Price Range. Embraer 170, $27.5-$29.0 million;
privately by Embraer. Embraer 175, $30.0-$31.0 million; Embraer 190, $33.0-
$34.5 million; Embraer 195, $35.0-$36.5 million – all in
Status. Production
2007 U.S. dollars. Lineage 1000, $42.95 million in
Total Produced. Through 2007, Embraer had pro- 2006 U.S. dollars.
duced 141 170s, 60 175s, 126 190s, 14 195s, and one
Lineage 1000.
Embraer 170
Source: Embraer
©
20 08 May 2008
Page 2 Civil Aircraft Forecast
Embraer 170/175/190/195
Contractors
Prime
Embraer - Empresa Brasileira de http://www.embraer.com, Av Brigadeiro Faria Lima, 2170, São José dos Campos, 12227-
Aeronáutica SA 901 São Paulo, Brazil, Tel: + 55 12 3927 1000, Fax: + 55 12 3921 2394, Prime
Subcontractor
Air Precision SA http://www.airprecision.com, 5, avenue Denis Papin, BP 36, Le Plessis-Robinson, 92353
France, Tel: + 33 146 012 116, Fax: + 33 146 325 207, Email: sales@airprecision.com
(Clock)
C & D Aerospace 7330 Lincoln Way, Garden Grove, CA 92641 United States, Tel: + 1 (714) 891-0683,
Fax: + 1 (714) 891-7073 (Passenger Cabin & Cargo Compartment Interior)
Chelton (Electrostatics) Ltd http://www.chelton.co.uk/, Fieldhouse Ln, Marlow, SL7 1LR Buckinghamshire, United
Kingdom, Tel: + 44 1628472072, Fax: + 44 1628482255, Email: info@chelton.co.uk (VHF
Antenna)
GE - Aviation http://www.geae.com, 1000 Western Ave, Lynn, MA 01910-0001 United States,
Tel: + 1 (617) 594-0100, Fax: + 1 (617) 594-4729 (CF34 Turbofan Engine)
Gamesa Aeronautica http://www.gamesa.es, Parque Tecnologico de Alava, C/Leonardo da Vinci n 13, Minano
(Alava), 01510 Spain, Tel: + 34 945 185600, Fax: + 34 945 185614,
Email: gamesa@gamesa.es (Rear Fuselage Section; Vertical & Horizontal Stabilizer;
Rudder; Elevator)
Goodrich Corp http://www.goodrich.com, Four Coliseum Centre, 2730 W Tyvola Rd, Charlotte, NC
28217-4578 United States, Tel: + 1 (704) 423-7000, Fax: + 1 (704) 423-7002,
Email: corporate.communications@goodrich.com (Smart Probe; Stick Shaker; TAT;
Windshield Wiper)
Hamilton Sundstrand http://www.hamiltonsundstrand.com, One Hamilton Rd, Windsor Locks, CT 06096-1010
United States, Tel: + 1 (860) 654-6000, Fax: + 1 (860) 654-2621,
Email: hs.general@hsd.utc.com (Tail Cone; Electrical System; Air Management System;
APU)
Harvey Titanium Ltd http://www.rolledalloys.com/companyinformation/harvey.aspx, 291 Coral Circle Dr, El
Segundo, CA 90245 United States, Tel: + 1 (310) 343-6000, Fax: + 1 (310) 606-9322,
Email: harveytisales@rolledalloys.com (Titanium Components)
Honeywell Aerospace, Air http://www.honeywell.com/sites/aero/, 21111 N 19th Ave, Phoenix, AZ 85027 United
Transport & Regional States, Tel: + 1 (602) 436-2311 (Avionics)
Honeywell Aerospace, Lighting & http://www.honeywellaes.com/lighting/index.jsp, 550 Route 55, PO Box 247, Urbana, OH
Electronics 43078 United States, Tel: + 1 (937) 484-2000, Fax: + 1 (937) 484-2008 (Exterior Lighting)
Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd http://www.khi.co.jp, 1-3 Higashikawasaki-cho 1-chome, Chuo-ku, Kobe, 650-8680
(KHI) Japan, Tel: + 81 78 371 9530, Fax: + 81 78 371 9568 (Wing Control Surfaces)
Latecoere http://www.latecoere.fr/, 135, rue de Periole, Toulouse Cedex, F-31079 France,
Tel: + 33 5 6158 77, Fax: + 33 5 6158 76 (Center Fuselage Sections I & III; Forward
Fuselage Door)
Liebherr-Aero-Technik GmbH Pfaenderstr 50/52, Postfach 1363, Lindenberg, Germany, Tel: + 49 0049 (0)8381 46
(Landing Gear System)
Parker Hannifin Corp http://www.parker.com, 6035 Parkland Blvd, Cleveland, OH 44124-4141 United States,
Tel: + 1 (216) 896-3000, Fax: + 1 (216) 896-4000 (Hydraulic, Flight Control & Fuel
Systems)
SONACA SA http://www.sonaca.com, Route Nationale Cinq, Gosselies, 6041 Belgium,
Tel: + 32 71 25 51 11, Fax: + 32 71 34 40 35 (Wing Slats)
May 2008
Civil Aircraft Forecast Page 3
Embraer 170/175/190/195
Vibro-Meter SA http://www.vibro-meter.com, Route de Moncor 4, PO Box 1071, Fribourg, CH-1701

Switzerland, Tel: + 41 26 407 1111, Fax: + 41 26 402 3662, Email: marketing@vibro-
meter.com (EVM)
Comprehensive information on Contractors can be found in Forecast International’s “International Contractors” series. For a detailed description,
go to www.forecastinternational.com (see Products & Samples/Governments & Industries) or call + 1 (203) 426-0800.
Contractors are invited to submit updated information to Editor, International Contractors, Forecast International, 22 Commerce Road, Newtown,
CT 06470, USA; rich.pettibone@forecast1.com
Technical Data
(170AR/190AR/195AR)
Design Features. Low-wing design with twin under- two aft, permit simultaneous baggage and passenger
wing engines. The fuselage has an elliptical-shaped, loading and unloading. There are no overwing exits.
double-bubble design. Four main doors, two fore and
Metric U.S.
Dimensions
Overall length 29.90/36.24/38.65 m 98.10/118.90/126.80 ft
Overall height 9.85/10.57/10.55 m 32.32/34.68/34.61 ft
Wingspan 26.0/28.72/28.72 m 85.30/94.23/94.23 ft
Weight
Maximum takeoff weight 38,600/51,800/52,290 kg 85,098/114,199/115,279 lb
Maximum landing weight 33,300/44,000/45,800 kg 73,414/97,003/100,971 lb
Maximum payload 9,840/13,080/13,650 kg 21,693/28,836/30,093 lb
Maximum fuel 9,335/12,971/12,971 kg 20,580/28,596/28,596 lb
Performance
Maximum operating speed Mach 0.82 Mach 0.82
Takeoff field length (SL, ISA, MTOW) 1,644/2,056/2,179 m 5,394/6,745/7,149 ft
Landing field length (SL, MLW) 1,273/1,323/1,282 m 4,177/4,341/4,206 ft
Range (long-range cruise)
170AR with 70 passengers 3,892 km 2,100 nm
Propulsion
170/175 (2) General Electric CF34-8E turbofan engines rated 63.2 kN (14,200 lbst) each.
190/195 (2) General Electric CF34-10E turbofan engines rated 88.9 kN (20,000 lbst) each.
Seating
The 170 accommodates 70-80 passengers. The 175 carries 78-88 passengers, the 190 accommodates 94-114
passengers, and the 195 carries 106-122 passengers.
Variants/Upgrades
Embraer 170. Formerly called the ERJ 170. Initial The 170 received provisional type certification from the
flight of the 70-80 passenger 170 occurred in February Brazilian Centro Tecnico Aerospacial (CTA) and the
2002. Six pre-series aircraft were built for flight testing. U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in
Four of these aircraft were eventually delivered to November 2003 and December 2003, respectively. Full
customers. Two static test airframes were also built. type certification was delayed, however, until the
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20 08 May 2008
Embraer 170/175/190/195
certification documentation for the Honeywell flight The 175AR model was launched in May 2007 at the
control system software was supplemented. The aircraft same time as the 170AR. Range of the 175AR with 78
received full certification from the CTA, the FAA, and passengers is 2,000 nautical miles.
the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) in
The 175 is powered by two CF34-8E engines.
February 2004. Deliveries began in March 2004.
Embraer 190/195. Embraer markets two other
The 170 is marketed in three versions. The standard
stretched versions of the 170 called the Embraer 190
version provides a range of 1,700 nautical miles with 70
and the Embraer 195. The 190 (previously called the
passengers. Maximum takeoff weight is 35,990 kilo-
ERJ 190-100) accommodates 94-114 passengers, and
grams (79,344 lb).
the further stretched 195 (formerly called the
The long-range version of the 170, called the 170LR, is ERJ 190-200) carries 106-122 passengers.
able to fly 2,000 nautical miles with 70 passengers. Its
The 190 and the 195 are powered by General Electric
maximum takeoff weight is 37,200 kilograms
CF34-10E engines rated 88.9 kN (20,000 lbst) each.
(82,011 lb).
The initial pre-series 190 was rolled out in February
Embraer launched an extended-range version of the 170
2004, and made its first flight in March 2004. A second
in May 2007. Range with 70 passengers of the new
pre-series 190 made its initial flight in May 2004. A
170AR (Advanced Range) is 2,100 nautical miles.
third pre-series 190 was also built. The 190 was
The 170 is powered by two General Electric CF34-8E certificated by the Brazilian CTA in August 2005 and
engines rated 63.2 kN (14,200 lbst) each. by the FAA in September 2005. Initial delivery, to
JetBlue Airways, occurred in mid-September 2005.
Embraer 175. The 175 is a stretched version of the
170. Depending on seating layout, the aircraft can carry The initial 195 made its first flight in December 2004.
78-88 passengers. First flight occurred in June 2003. The 195 was awarded Brazilian certification in June
Two 175s were used for the flight test and certification 2006. EASA certificated the 195 in July 2006. Initial
program; the second of these was later delivered in 2006 delivery, to Flybe, occurred in September 2006. The
to Air Caraibes. The Brazilian CTA awarded the 175 FAA certificated the 195 in August 2007.
type certification in December 2004. Certification by
Three versions of each model are marketed. The stan-
Transport Canada occurred in July 2005. Initial
dard version of the 190 has a range with 98 passengers
delivery, to Air Canada, followed later that month. The
of 1,700 nautical miles, while that of the long-range
FAA certificated the 175 in August 2006.
version (the 190LR) is 2,200 nautical miles. Range
As with the 170, the 175 is marketed in standard, long- with 108 passengers of the standard 195 is 1,430
range, and AR versions. The standard version provides nautical miles, and that of the long-range version (the
a range of 1,500 nautical miles with 78 passengers. 195LR) is 1,800 nautical miles.
Maximum takeoff weight is 37,500 kilograms
In January 2005, Embraer announced AR versions of
(82,673 lb).
the 190 and the 195. Range with 98 passengers of the
The long-range version of the 175, dubbed the 175LR, new 190AR is 2,400 nautical miles. Range of the
is able to fly 1,800 nautical miles with 78 passengers. 195AR with 108 passengers is 2,200 nautical miles.
Its maximum takeoff weight is 38,790 kilograms
(85,517 lb).
Program Review
Background. In February 1999, Embraer announced Europe, and Asia. These studies indicated that a market
the “pre-launch” of a new regional jet series consisting existed for both a 70-passenger regional jet and a
of a 70-passenger transport called the ERJ 170 and a 90-passenger jet in the near future.
stretched, 90-passenger derivative called the ERJ 190.
The ERJ 170 would be an all-new product, rather than
Prior to this announcement, the Brazilian company had
one derived from an existing Embraer aircraft. The
conducted a number of studies related to the project,
fuselage of the company’s 50-passenger ERJ 145, which
including a year-long study that involved consultation
had been derived from that of the EMB 120 turboprop,
with 46 regional airlines in North and South America,
could not be used for a 70-passenger aircraft.
May 2008
Embraer 170/175/190/195
Two 190 Variants Developed introduction of winglets to the company’s EMB 145
AEW&C aircraft encouraged Embraer to investigate
By May 1999, Embraer had decided to develop two their use on the 170 and then incorporate them as a
ERJ 190 variants: a baseline, 98-passenger version that standard feature on the aircraft. The 170 winglets
eventually was named the ERJ 190-100, and a stretched, improve fuel burn, climb capability, hot-and-high per-
108-passenger version that was initially called the formance, obstacle clearance, and payload. In addition,
ERJ 190S and later became known as the ERJ 190-200. range is increased by 3 to 5 percent at typical cruise
The ERJ 170/190 program was officially launched in speeds and gross weights.
June 1999. Launch customers for the program were the Name Change. In October 2001, Embraer redesig-
Swiss airline Crossair and the French carrier Regional nated the ERJ 170 as the Embraer 170. In addition, the
Airlines. Crossair ordered 30 ERJ 170s and 30 ERJ 190-100 was renamed the Embraer 190, and the
ERJ 190-200s. Regional ordered 10 ERJ 170s; these 10 ERJ 190-200 was redesignated the Embraer 195.
orders have since been canceled.
Embraer currently refers to the entire 170/190 family as
The Crossair orders were reduced in 2003 to 15 of each the E-Jets series.
model by SWISS International Airlines. SWISS was
established in 2002 by a merger of Crossair and 190/195 Program Schedule Revised
Swissair. The new carrier had taken over Crossair’s
Schedule Change. In June 2003, JetBlue Airways
orders for the 170 and the 195. However, the SWISS
became the launch customer for the 190 with an order
orders were eventually canceled in 2007.
for 100 aircraft. The airline also took options on an
Risk-Sharing Partners. Among Embraer’s main risk- additional 100 190s. JetBlue’s 190s have a 100-seat
sharing partners on the 170/190 program are General configuration.
Electric (CF34 engines), Honeywell (avionics), C&D
The JetBlue order prompted Embraer to change the
Aerospace (passenger cabin and cargo compartment
program schedule for the 190/195 variants. Originally,
interior), Gamesa (vertical and horizontal stabilizers,
the 195 was to be the first of the two models to be
rudder, elevators, and rear fuselage section), Hamilton
certificated; however, the 190 now became first.
Sundstrand (tail cone, APU, electrical systems, air
management system), Latecoere (center fuselage The 190 was certificated by the Brazilian CTA in
sections I and III, forward fuselage doors), Parker August 2005 and by the FAA in early September 2005.
Hannifin (hydraulic, flight control, and fuel systems), Certification of the 190 had previously been slated for
Liebherr (landing gear system), Kawasaki (wing stub, later that year. Deliveries of the 190 began in mid-
control surfaces, engine pylons), and SONACA (wing September 2005.
slats).
Brazilian and European certification of the 195 occurred
Embraer itself is responsible for the forward fuselage, in mid-2006. Certification of the 195 had been post-
the nose cone, center fuselage section II, and the wing- poned from late 2004.
to-fuselage fairings. It is also responsible for fabri-
cation of the torsion box and for wing integration. Launch of AR Versions
In January 2000, Embraer finalized agreements with a In early 2005, Embraer announced the formal launch of
number of companies that it termed risk-sharing the 190AR and the 195AR, new versions of the 190 and
suppliers. They included Air Precision (clock), the 195, respectively. The new versions have increased
Honeywell Lighting & Electronics (external lighting range; structural reinforcements in the fuselage, wings,
and cockpit), Smiths Aerospace (windshield heater), pylons, and flight control surfaces; and higher maxi-
Goodrich (smart probe, windshield wiper, TAT, stick mum takeoff weight and maximum landing weight.
shaker), Chelton (VHF antennas), Harvey Titanium Embraer launched the AR models in response to a
(titanium components), Norton Performance Plastics request from JetBlue, the launch customer for the 190.
(radome), Sensor Systems (VOR/ILS antennas), and JetBlue later converted its entire order for 100 190s plus
Vibro-Meter (EVM). 100 options to the 190AR.
In mid-1999, Embraer selected the General Electric AR versions of the 170 and the 175 were launched in
CF34 to power the ERJ 170/190 series over the BMW May 2007.
Rolls-Royce BR715 and the Pratt & Whitney/Snecma
SPW16. Work Transfer
In mid-2000, Embraer decided to add winglets to the In June 2006, Embraer announced a Letter of Agree-
170 design. Performance gains resulting from the ment (LOA) concerning the transfer of some work
©
20 08 May 2008
Embraer 170/175/190/195
packages to Embraer from Kawasaki Heavy Industries New High-Capacity Configurations

(KHI) and Kawasaki Aeronautica do Brasil (KAB).
The LOA, which was effective immediately, contained In July 2006, Embraer announced that it would market
basic implementation guidelines for the planned work the members of the 170/190 series in high-capacity
package transfer. Embraer said that, through this trans- variants as a response to growing interest among
fer, it and KHI would be better prepared to support the airlines. The company said that no structural changes or
190 and 195 production ramp-up. additional testing would be necessary to certify the new
configurations.
Under the agreement, the work packages assumed by
Embraer from KAB and KHI included the metallic parts With the new configurations, the maximum capacity of
from the wings of the 190 and the 195. KHI retained the 170 increased to 80 seats from 78, and that of the
the work packages for the wing control surfaces and the 175 increased to 88 seats (from 86). The maximum
main landing gear doors of these aircraft. Work capacity of the 190 rose to 114 seats (from 108), and
packages supplied by KHI for the 170 and 175 that of the 195 increased to 122 seats (from 118).
programs were not affected.
Related News
Six 122-Seat 195s Sold – In February 2008, Embraer announced that it had signed a firm order with JJH Capital
for six Embraer 195 regional jets, plus purchase rights for another six aircraft. The total value of the deal is $237
million, at list price, based on January 2008 economic conditions. The value could double if all purchase rights are
confirmed. The deal was included in Embraer’s fourth quarter 2007 firm order backlog attributed to an undisclosed
customer.
The 195s will be flown by a newly established Spanish air carrier, Universal Airlines, serving domestic and intra-
European network routes. Universal and JJH Capital are both owned by Juan Jose Hidalgo, who is also president of
Air Europa and Globalia.
Initial delivery is scheduled for May 2008. Universal will be the first operator in the world to fly the 195 in a single-
class, high-capacity 122-seat layout. (Embraer, 2/08)
Market Intelligence Service Subscribers: For additional news, go to the online E-Market Alert page located in the Intelligence Center at
www.forecastinternational.com and click on the links to the products you subscribe to.
Funding
In early 2003, the development cost of the 170/190 series was estimated at $850 million.
Contracts/Orders & Options

(As of March 2008)
Operator Designation Quantity Phase

AeroRepublica SA Embraer 190 20 Option
Air Canada Embraer 190 45 Option
Air Canada Embraer 190AR 2 On Order
Air Caraibes SA Embraer 190 1 Option
Air Moldova Embraer 190 1 On Order
Alitalia Express SpA Embraer 170LR 6 Option
Alpi Eagles SpA Embraer 195 6 Option
May 2008
Embraer 170/175/190/195

Alpi Eagles SpA Embraer 195AR 10 On Order
BRA Embraer 195 20 On Order
Chautauqua Airlines Embraer 170 59 Option
Copa Airlines - Compania Panamena De Aviacion Embraer 190AR 4 On Order
Copa Airlines - Compania Panamena De Aviacion Embraer 190AR 15 Option
EgyptAir Embraer 170 6 On Order
Finnair Oyj Embraer 190LR 4 On Order
Flybe Embraer 195 5 On Order
Flybe Embraer 195 12 Option
GECAS Embraer 170 75 Option
GECAS Embraer 170LR 1 On Order
GECAS Embraer 190AR 14 On Order
GECAS Embraer 195 5 On Order
GECAS Embraer 195 22 Option
HNA Group Embraer 190 50 On Order
JAL Embraer 170 10 On Order
JetBlue Airways Embraer 190AR 70 On Order
JetBlue Airways Embraer 190AR 99 Option
Jetscape Embraer 190 10 On Order
Jetscape Embraer 190 10 Option
JJH Capital Embraer 195 6 On Order
KLM Embraer 190 10 On Order
LOT Polish Airlines - Polskie Linie Lotnicze Embraer 170 7 Option
LOT Polish Airlines - Polskie Linie Lotnicze Embraer 175 12 On Order
LOT Polish Airlines - Polskie Linie Lotnicze Embraer 175 2 Option
Lufthansa Embraer 190LR 30 On Order
M1 Travel Embraer 190 5 On Order
NAS Air Embraer 190 5 On Order
Northwest Airlines Embraer 175LR 25 On Order
Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 170 7 On Order
Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 170 5 Option
Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 190 1 On Order
Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 190 2 Option
Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 190LR 4 On Order
Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 190LR 6 Option
Republic Airlines Inc Embraer 175 29 On Order
Royal Jordanian Embraer 175 2 On Order
Shuttle America Embraer 175 11 Option
©
20 08 May 2008
Embraer 170/175/190/195

South African Airlink Pty Ltd Embraer 170 2 On Order
Suzuyo Embraer 170 2 On Order
Suzuyo Embraer 170 1 Option
TACA International Airlines SA Embraer 190 11 On Order
TACA International Airlines SA Embraer 190 15 Option
TAME - Linea Aerea Del Ecuador Embraer 170LR 4 Option
Undisclosed Embraer 190 7 On Order
US Airways Embraer 190 46 On Order
US Airways Embraer 190 50 Option
Virgin Blue Airlines Pty Ltd Embraer 170LR 3 On Order
Virgin Blue Airlines Pty Ltd Embraer 190 4 On Order
Virgin Blue Airlines Pty Ltd Embraer 190 3 Option
Virgin Blue Airlines Pty Ltd Embraer 190AR 14 On Order
Virgin Nigeria Airways Ltd Embraer 170AR 7 On Order
Virgin Nigeria Airways Ltd Embraer 190 8 Option
Virgin Nigeria Airways Ltd Embraer 190AR 3 On Order
Virgin Nigeria Airways Ltd Embraer 190AR 6 Option
Timetable
Month Year Major Development
Feb 1999 Pre-launch of ERJ 170/190 announced
Jun 1999 Official launch of ERJ 170/190 program
Feb 2002 Initial flight of 170
Jun 2003 Initial flight of 175
Feb 2004 CTA, FAA, and EASA certification of 170
Mar 2004 Initial delivery of 170;
Initial flight of 190
Dec 2004 CTA certification of 175;
Initial flight of 195
Jul 2005 Initial delivery of 175
Aug 2005 CTA certification of 190
Sep 2005 Initial delivery of 190
Jun 2006 Brazilian certification of 195
Sep 2006 Initial delivery of 195
May 2008
Embraer 170/175/190/195
Worldwide Distribution/Inventories
(As of March 2008)
Operator Designation Quantity

Aeromexico Connect (Aerolitoral) Embraer 190AR 2
AeroRepublica SA Embraer 190AR 7
AeroRepublica SA Embraer 190LR 1
Air Canada Embraer 175 15
Air Canada Embraer 190AR 43
Air Caraibes SA Embraer 175 1
Air Caraibes SA Embraer 190LR 1
Air France Embraer 190AR 3
Airnorth Embraer 170LR 1
Alitalia Express SpA Embraer 170LR 6
Cirrus Airlines Luftfahrtunternehmen GmbH Embraer 170 1
Cirrus Airlines Luftfahrtunternehmen GmbH Embraer 170LR 1
Compass Airlines Embraer 175AR 2
Compass Airlines Embraer 175LR 9
Copa Airlines - Compania Panamena De Aviacion Embraer 190AR 11
EgyptAir Express Embraer 170 1
EgyptAir Express Embraer 170LR 5
Finnair Oyj Embraer 170LR 10
Finnair Oyj Embraer 190LR 6
Flybe Embraer 195 3
Flybe Embraer 195LR 6
JetBlue Airways Embraer 190AR 31
Kenya Airways Ltd Embraer 170LR 2
LOT Polish Airlines - Polskie Linie Lotnicze Embraer 170 10
LOT Polish Airlines - Polskie Linie Lotnicze Embraer 175 6
Mandarin Airlines Ltd Embraer 190 1
Mandarin Airlines Ltd Embraer 190AR 2
Paramount Airways Ltd Embraer 170LR 2
Paramount Airways Ltd Embraer 175 3
Regional Airlines Ltd Embraer 190AR 1
Regional Compagnie Aerienne Europeene SA Embraer 190AR 1
Republic Airlines Inc Embraer 170 16
Republic Airlines Inc Embraer 170LR 13
Republic Airlines Inc Embraer 175 21
Republic Airlines Inc Embraer 175LR 4
©
20 08 May 2008
Embraer 170/175/190/195
Operator Designation Quantity

Royal Jordanian Embraer 195AR 5
SATENA - Servicio De Aeronavegaeion A Territorios Embraer 170LR 1
Saudi Arabian Airlines Embraer 170LR 15
Shuttle America Embraer 170 7
Shuttle America Embraer 170LR 37
TAME - Linea Aerea Del Ecuador Embraer 170LR 2
TAME - Linea Aerea Del Ecuador Embraer 190AR 3
US Airways Embraer 190 3
US Airways Embraer 190AR 8
Virgin Blue Airlines Pty Ltd Embraer 170LR 3
Market Intelligence Service Subscribers: The Airline Inventories, Orders and Options appendix provides instructions on how to access an online
database of up-to-date listings. Use this database to obtain detailed, current information.
Forecast Rationale
Embraer delivered 125 E-Jets aircraft in 2007, including compete with the A319 and, to some extent, the
11 170s, 34 175s, 70 190s, and 10 195s. Firm order 737-700.
backlogs at the end of the year totaled 31 for the 170, 70
This situation would change dramatically should
for the 175, 282 for the 190, and 47 for the 195.
Bombardier, as increasingly seems likely, launch its
The 190 has become, by far, the most popular model in proposed CSeries family of 110- to 130-seat airliners.
the E-Jets series. The 190 and the 195 have enabled The CSeries would compete directly with the 190 and
Embraer to exploit a gap in the commercial aviation the 195. Bombardier says that the CSeries, powered by
market between 90-seat regional jets and mainline Pratt & Whitney’s new Geared Turbofan engine, will be
narrowbody airliners. Airlines can use these Embraer significantly more fuel efficient than the Embraer
jets to replace larger narrowbodies on routes that would regional jets. Service entry of the CSeries is tentatively
be more efficiently served by smaller aircraft such as scheduled for 2013.
the 190 or the 195. In addition, low-fare carriers can
utilize the 190 and the 195 to expand into mid-size Scope Clauses Limit 90+ Seat Market
markets that would not be able to support operations While no longer much of a factor in the 70-seat regional
with Boeing 737s or Airbus A319s. jet market, scope clauses remain a considerable obstacle
The immediate market success of the 190/195 con- to the 90+ seat market reaching its full potential. These
tributed to production ramp-up problems and delayed clauses in major airline pilot contracts, which limit the
deliveries of the two models. However, Embraer spent number and size of aircraft flown by regional partners
2007 increasing build rates and improving production of the majors, act as an artificial brake on sales of 90-
capacity. seat and larger regional jets. Eventually, financial and
competitive pressures can be expected to force an easing
Sales Competition of these clauses with regard to 90+ seaters. However,
this may happen later rather than sooner.
At the 100-seat level and below, the most direct com-
petitors to the 190 are Bombardier’s 90-seat CRJ900 170AR and 175AR Launched
and 100-seat CRJ1000. However, the 190 can be
configured for as many as 114 seats, while the 195 seats The 170 and the 175 compete for sales with the 64-75
106-122 passengers. Above 100 seats, the two Embraer seat Bombardier CRJ700. Among other factors, growth
aircraft currently have little direct competition other in air traffic on regional routes caused market demand
than the Airbus A318, though the 195 does indirectly in the past several years to shift away from 50-seat
regional jets to 70-seat aircraft. Likewise, continuation
May 2008
Embraer 170/175/190/195
of such growth is already helping to shift demand away entry in 2013) both promise to incorporate newer
from 70-seaters and toward larger aircraft. technology than the 170/190 series. However, Embraer
has no plans to introduce a new regional jet family until
In May 2007, Embraer launched Advanced Range (AR)
at least 2016 or so. The company intends to study
versions of the 170 and the 175. The AR models
engine concepts and other technologies over the next
incorporate structural reinforcements that allow the
couple of years before it makes a decision on a new
aircraft to be operated at takeoff, landing, and zero fuel
design. Participation in Airbus’ project to develop a
weights above the current maximums. Depending on
new narrowbody airliner is also a possibility for
aircraft configuration and operating conditions, the AR
Embraer.
versions will also provide a range increase of 556
kilometers (300 nm) on average, and a payload increase Lineage 1000 Takes to the Air
of more than 700 kilograms (1,543 lb).
The Lineage 1000, a corporate jet model based on the
Certification of the 175AR is targeted for the third 190 airliner, made its initial flight in October 2007.
quarter of 2008, followed by certification of the 170 AR Delivery of this aircraft, to Aamer Abdul Jalil Al Fahim,
in the fourth quarter of the year. Northwest Airlines is is scheduled to occur in the second half of 2008.
the launch customer for the 175AR.
Embraer had more than 10 orders for the Lineage 1000
Retrofit kits will be available to operators of existing by the end of 2007. The aircraft can accommodate up to
170s and 175s that might wish to convert their aircraft 19 people in a total cabin volume of 115.7 cubic meters
to the AR standard. (4,085 cu ft). It is equipped with Honeywell Primus
“We at Embraer are constantly analyzing our cus- Epic avionics and GE CF34-10E7 engines. Range with
tomers’ needs and requirements, and the new AR eight passengers is 4,200 nautical miles with NBAA
versions of the Embraer 170 and Embraer 175 are the IFR reserves and 200-nautical-mile alternate. The
result of those analyses,” said Mauro Kern, Embraer aircraft has a maximum operating speed of Mach 0.82.
Executive Vice President for the Airline Market. The British company Priestman Goode designed the
interior of the Lineage 1000. The interior has five
Beyond the 170/190 distinct cabin areas, which can include a dining room, a
The 170/190 design would appear to have some lounge, a work area, and so on. DeCrane Aircraft was
potential for a further stretch beyond the current 195. selected by Embraer for interior completion and to
Embraer, though, has publicly stated that it has no plans supply various interior components. DeCrane sub-
to develop a further stretched model. sidiary PATS Aircraft handles interior installations,
while other DeCrane units supply interior components
The company has studied a possible shrink derivative of such as seating, furniture, and in-flight entertainment
the 170 seating approximately 54-58 passengers, though systems.
it has no immediate plans to build this variant. Embraer
has also examined potential freighter and quick-change The Lineage 1000 competes directly with the Airbus
(QC) versions of the 170 and the 195. A318 Elite for customers in the corporate/VIP market.
Other competitors include the 737-based Boeing
Bombardier’s CSeries and a new 70-96 seat regional jet Business Jet as well as various Bombardier and
family planned by Mitsubishi (also targeted for service Gulfstream corporate jet models.
©
20 08 May 2008
Embraer 170/175/190/195
Ten-Year Outlook
ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR UNIT PRODUCTION

Designation or Program High Confidence Good Confidence Speculative
Thru 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total
Embraer - Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica SA

170/175 <> CF34 -8 E
201 58 42 38 38 40 36 34 32 32 30 380
190/195 <> CF34 -10 E

140 97 99 96 90 93 95 95 97 97 96 955
Lineage 1000 <> CF34 -10 E

1 2 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 3 35
Subtotal 342 157 145 138 131 137 134 133 133 133 129 1370
Total 342 157 145 138 131 137 134 133 133 133 129 1,370
May 2008
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The Market For Regional Transport Aircraft

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The Market For Regional Transport Aircraft

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The Market for Regional

Product Code #F612

A Special Focused Market Segment Analysis by:

Table 7 - The Market for 20-30 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft

Table 19 - The Market for 76-130 PAX Regional Transport Aircraft

Outlook Unit Production Forecast

 Production ramp-up difficulties for the 190/195 have 120

been overcome 100

 Lineage 1000 corporate jet variant made first flight in 60

Vibro-Meter SA http://www.vibro-meter.com, Route de Moncor 4, PO Box 1071, Fribourg, CH-1701

packages to Embraer from Kawasaki Heavy Industries New High-Capacity Configurations

Contracts/Orders & Options

Operator Designation Quantity Phase

Operator Designation Quantity Phase

Operator Designation Quantity Phase

Operator Designation Quantity

Operator Designation Quantity

ESTIMATED CALENDAR YEAR UNIT PRODUCTION

Embraer - Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica SA

190/195 <> CF34 -10 E

Lineage 1000 <> CF34 -10 E

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