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What is QRA
! Systematic methodology to assess risks associated any installation
! Taking into consideration all forms of hazards ! Uses design information and historical data to estimate frequency of failure ! Uses modelling software to assess consequence
Definition
Methodology
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Hazard Identification
! Purpose: to identify plausible hazard conditions ! Methods
! Check-list, Preliminary Hazard Review, HAZID, HAZOP etc. ! Unstructured brainstorming?
Frequency Analysis
! Sometimes referred to as Hazard Analysis ! Purpose: To estimate the likelihood for a hazard scenario to occur ! Methods
! Event-Tree Analysis ! Fault-Tree Analysis
Consequence Analysis
! Purpose: To assess the extent of damage
! Typical Hazard
! Toxic Release, Fire and Explosion
! Tolerability Criteria
Risk Management
! Propose: to propose mitigating measure to reduce the potential impact of the hazard and possibly reduce the risk level ! Method
! Safe Work Procedure at every project stages ! Emergency Response Management ! Emergency Response Procedure
! Involuntary Risks
! e.g. exposure to lighting, disease, typhoons and persons in residential or recreational areas near the industrial facilities.
Activity Smoking (20 cigarettes/day) Motor cycling Car racing Car driving Rock climbing Football
Activity Influenza Leukemia Run over by road vehicle (UK) Run over by road vehicle (USA) Floods (USA) Storms (USA) Lightning (USA) Falling aircraft (USA) Falling aircraft (UK)
Individual Risk
! Individual risk is defined formally (by Institution of Chemical Engineering, UK) as the frequency at which an individual may be expected to sustain a given level of harm from the realization of specified hazards. It is usually taken to be the risk of death, and usually expressed as a risk per year. ! The term individual may be a member of a certain group of workers on a facility, or a member of the public, or anything as defined by the QRA.
IRx ,y ,i = pi fi
! IRx,y,i is the individual risk at location (x,y) due to event i, ! pi is the probability of fatality due to incident i at location (x,y). This is normally determined by FTA ! fi is the frequency of incident outcome case i, (per year). This value can be determined using Probit Analysis When there are more than one release events, the cumulative risk at location (x,y) is given by equation
IRx ,y = ! IRx ,y ,i
i =1
MKH1223 Process Safety & loss Prevention
IRAV =
IRx y Px y ! x y
, , ,
Px y ! x y
, ,
Here, IRAV is the average individual risk in the exposed population (probability of fatality per year) and P x, y is the number of people at location x, y
MKH1223 Process Safety & loss Prevention
Societal Risk
! Societal risk measures the risk to a group of people. It is an estimation of risk in term of both the potential size and likelihood of incidents with multiple consequences. ! The risk can be represented by Frequency-Number (F-N) Curve.
Ni = ! Px ,y pf ,i
x ,y
Here, Ni is number of fatalities resulting from Incident Outcome case i, pf,i is the probability of fatality and Px,y is the number of population. ! The cumulative frequency is then calculated using the following equation:
FN = ! Fi
Here, FN is the frequency of all incident outcome cases affecting N or more people, per year and Fi= is the frequency of incident outcome caseMKH1223 i peryear. Process Safety & loss Prevention
i
1x10-4
Intolerable Region
1x10-5
1x10-6
1x10-7
Fatalities (N)
MKH1223 Process Safety & loss Prevention
Tolerable Risk
! Risk cannot be eliminated entirely. ! Every chemical process has a certain amount of risk associated with it. ! At some point in the design stage someone needs to decide if the risks are tolerable". ! One tolerability criteria in the UK is "as low as reasonable practicable" (ALARP) concept formalized in 1974 by United Kingdom Health and Safety at Work Act. ! Serious consideration must be made to decide on tolerability based on ALARP
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ALARP Criteria
INTOLERABLE LEVEL (Risk cannot be justified on any ground) TOLERABLE only if risk reduction is impracticable or if its cost is grossly disproportionate to the improvement gained TOLERABLE if cost of reduction would exceed the improvement gained BROADLY ACCEPTABLE REGION
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hse.gov.uk)
(2) Lower-bound on individual (and possibly, societal) risk levels, below which risks are deemed not to warrant regulatory concern. (3) intermediate region between (1) and (2) above, where further individual and societal risk reductions are required to achieve a level deemed "as low as reasonably practicable (ALARP)".
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1.! Risk to public cannot be more than 1X 10-6 fpy 2.! Fatality cannot be more than 10 at risk 1X 10-5 fpy 3.! Slope -2
Major industrial accident council of Canada (MIACC) recommends the above Individual risks level
MKH1223 Process Safety & loss Prevention
END OF SECTION 6