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uLln's 8ussla: 1lme for ConLalnmenL?

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Cn 1uesday, Aprll 13Lh, Lhe McCaln lnsLlLuLe for lnLernaLlonal Leadershlp aL Arlzona SLaLe unlverslLy
hosLed Lhe debaLe: uLln's 8ussla: 1lme for ConLalnmenL?" aL Lhe 8urke 1heaLer aL Lhe navy
Memorlal, ln WashlngLon, uC.
1he debaLe cenLered on Lhe ongolng ukralnlan crlsls, uLln's acLlons, and Lhe rlghL WesLern response
Lo Lhem. AlLhough WesLern democracles are unlLed ln condemnlng 8ussla's lnLervenLlon ln ukralne,
lLs desLablllzlng efforLs ln LasLern Lurope, and Lhe annexaLlon of Crlmea, Lhere ls no consensus
regardlng Lhe approprlaLe pollcy Lo handle Lhe slLuaLlon. SupporLers of conLalnmenL argue LhaL Lhls ls
Lhe only way Lo sLop uLln, whlle crlLlcs say LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes can'L go lL alone ln fashlonlng an
effecLlve pollcy response.
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!+, -./01230,456( Argulng ln supporL of conLalnlng 8ussla were %2738 9: ;42<,4, resldenL of
lreedom Pouse, and '08,45 =5>?08, Senlor lellow aL Lhe eLerson lnsLlLuLe for lnLernaLlonal
Lconomlcs.
!+, -#0@2@,456( Argulng ln supporL of a balanced approach Lo counLer 8usslan aggresslon and
lnLervenLlon ln ukralne were !+/<25 A42+2<, Managlng ulrecLor of klsslnger AssoclaLes, lnc., and
'084,B *: C,355, vlce resldenL for SLudles aL Carnegle LndowmenL for lnLernaLlonal eace.
#>35, D2E/11, Cnn lorelgn Affalrs 8eporLer, moderaLed Lhe debaLe.
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uLln poses Lhe mosL serlous LhreaL Lo freedom, democracy and lnLernaLlonal law Lhe
lnLernaLlonal communlLy has seen ln decades. 1he WesL cannoL slL ldly by, whlle 8ussla
clamps down on democracy and human rlghLs, annexes forelgn LerrlLorles, and vlolaLes
lnLernaLlonal agreemenLs. 1he WesLern powers musL puL prlnclples before buslness lnLeresLs
or Lhey rlsk allles noL LrusLlng Lhem, and enemles noL fearlng Lhem. 1he cholce ls beLween
war or only severe sancLlons.
As long as Lhe unlLed SLaLes and Lhe Lu do noL show unlLy and acL proacLlvely and declslvely,
uLln feels he has Lhe upper hand. lf 8ussla ls noL sLopped, lL wlll conLlnue Lo LhreaLen and
desLablllze counLrles LhaL are vulnerable due Lo Lhelr geopollLlcal poslLlon, hlsLorlcal and
culLural Lles Lo 8ussla, and Lhelr 8usslan-speaklng populaLlons. Lxpanslon of 8usslan
subverslon Lo Lhe 8alLlcs would also mean a LhreaL Lo Lhe Luropean unlon and nA1C.
8egardless of whaL lLs propaganda says, 8ussla ls economlcally weak, vulnerable and far
more dependenL on Lhe unlLed SLaLes and Lurope Lhan vlce versa. uLln has overplayed hls
hand. A ma[or reason for uLln's aggresslon agalnsL ukralne ls Lo dlverL people's aLLenLlon
from Lhe domesLlc problems and economlc hardshlps. 1he WesL has Lhe leverage ln Lhls
slLuaLlon. ConLalnmenL, hard-hlLLlng sancLlons, and cuLLlng 8ussla ouL from Lhe lnLernaLlonal
communlLy would be Lhe besL way Lo undermlne uLln.
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1hls slLuaLlon ls noL a re-play of Lhe Cold War. 1he pollcy cholces and Lools LhaL were rlghL aL
LhaL perlod may noL work Loday. We llve ln a dlfferenL, more globallzed world. 8ussla ls parL
of Lhe global economy, and 8ussla and Lhe WesL share cerLaln complemenLary securlLy and
reglonal lnLeresLs, e.g., Lhe flghL agalnsL nuclear prollferaLlon and radlcal exLremlsm.
1he WesL ls noL unlLed: 1here are huge dlfferences beLween Lhe poLenLlal consequences and
repercusslons for Lhe unlLed SLaLes and Lurope. ?eL unlLy beLween Lhe unlLed SLaLes asnd
Lurope ls crlLlcal Lo any successful pollcy. Moreover, Lhe unlLed SLaLes cannoL acL alone,
especlally slnce afLer Lwo wars, Lhere ls no domesLlc supporL for maklng new open-ended
securlLy commlLmenLs LhroughouL 8ussla's nelghborhood, lncludlng ln places llke ukralne
LhaL are on Lhe verge of armed confllcL.
ukralne ls a deeply dlvlded, and economlcally and pollLlcally unsLable counLry. lL needs Llme
address lnLernal lssues, develop democracy and lay down Lhe foundaLlons of a sLable
economy,. uue Lo ukralne's locaLlon, , lL ls a mlsLake Lo suggesL LhaL Lhere can be a lasLlng
soluLlon Lo Lhe crlsls wlLhouL 8ussla's lnvolvemenL. uellberaLely provoklng 8ussla could
lnadverLenLly escalaLe Lhe slLuaLlon..
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Anders slund argued LhaL Lhe unlLed SLaLes should lmpose much Lougher sancLlons on 8ussla,
especlally flnanclal sancLlons. As Lhe uS economy ls nearly Len Llmes larger Lhan Lhe 8usslan
economy, and u.S.-8usslan economlc and Lrade relaLlons are relaLlvely lnslgnlflcanL, Lhe negaLlve
economlc lmpacL on Amerlcans would be very llmlLed.
uavld !. kramer recommended hard sancLlons on 8usslan sLaLe-owned enLerprlses, banks, and
lndlvlduals. Pe also sLressed LhaL we musL refuse Lo recognlze Crlmea's annexaLlon by 8ussla, [usL as
we dld wlLh Lhe 8alLlc SLaLes' lncorporaLlon lnLo Lhe SovleL unlon. 1reaLlng Crlmea as lf lL were losL
would be a huge mlsLake and could have serlous repercusslons for Lhe 8alLlc reglon's fuLure. Pe
urged reassurlng and prevenLlve mlllLary deploymenLs Lo nA1C Allles near ukralne.
Andrew S. Welss predlcLed LhaL Lhe crlsls ln ukralne wlll go on for a long Llme and wlll remaln
exLremely compllcaLed. Pe argued LhaL whlle dlalog and engagemenL are by no means maglc bulleLs,
Laklng Lhem ouL of conslderaLlon and declarlng LhaL Lhere ls no room for a dlplomaLlc soluLlon would
be a grave mlsLake.
1homas Craham argued LhaL lL ls necessary Lo open up channels of dlscusslon and engagemenL and
Lo resolve Lhe crlsls dlplomaLlcally, flndlng a way Lo advance u.S. lnLeresLs.

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