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China 1Q2014 GDP and 2014 forecasts

- 2014 2014
by Eduardo Petazze
In the first quarter of 2014, China's GDP grew 7.4% Y/Y (+1.3% Q/Q), from a growth of 7.7% Y/Y (+1.8% Q/Q) in 4Q2013.
For calendar year 2014 is expected to grow 6.8% from 7.7% growth in 2013, influenced by our expectation of a sharp slowdown in growth in 4Q2014.
The following summary is a preview of our expectation for economic growth for 2014, the People's Republic of China (Mainland). Includes some adjustments on official
estimates published
Link: Economic Development in the First Quarter of 2014

Cumulative data at the end of each calendar quarter (YTD)


Reference
YTD

Million current yuan, NSA

Million USD

1st.

GDP

2001Q1
281,483.5
2,329,954
2001Q2
591,392.3
4,895,086
2001Q3
915,998.8
7,581,819
2001Q4
1,324,820.6 10,965,517
2002Q1
306,579.6
2,537,569
2002Q2
644,447.9
5,334,101
2002Q3
1,003,469.9
8,305,671
2002Q4
1,453,807.2 12,033,269
2003Q1
348,675.3
2,886,181
2003Q2
723,289.6
5,986,887
2003Q3
1,127,539.9
9,332,932
2003Q4
1,640,937.8 13,582,276
2004Q1
403,774.5
3,342,065
2004Q2
850,624.4
7,040,589
2004Q3
1,328,611.3 10,996,757
2004Q4
1,931,652.1 15,987,834
2005Q1
472,632.5
3,911,743
2005Q2
989,700.6
8,191,257
2005Q3
1,539,606.8 12,665,704
2005Q4
2,260,626.5 18,493,737
2006Q1
562,906.9
4,531,583
2006Q2
1,188,473.2
9,542,852
2006Q3
1,840,161.6 14,734,126
2006Q4
2,717,316.9 21,631,443
2007Q1
705,731.0
5,475,589
2007Q2
1,503,151.7 11,599,889
2007Q3
2,351,222.7 18,010,106
2007Q4
3,504,085.6 26,581,031
2008Q1
925,575.0
6,628,378
2008Q2
1,991,546.9 14,047,782
2008Q3
3,110,914.7 21,702,614
2008Q4
4,529,432.0 31,404,543
2009Q1
1,021,297.5
6,981,692
2009Q2
2,169,089.3 14,820,360
2009Q3
3,385,673.4 23,130,333
2009Q4
4,991,043.0 34,090,281
2010Q1
1,210,076.5
8,261,339
2010Q2
2,562,208.6 17,487,883
2010Q3
4,006,468.4 27,262,674
2010Q4
5,942,417.0 40,151,280
2011Q1
1,481,825.0
9,747,954
2011Q2
3,159,243.6 20,648,811
2011Q3
4,965,132.3 32,234,467
2011Q4
7,336,057.6 47,310,405
2012Q1
1,719,587.4 10,847,197
2012Q2
3,608,025.2 22,800,309
2012Q3
5,587,656.7 35,374,155
2012Q4
8,241,698.2 51,947,010
2013Q1
1,910,114.1 11,886,208
2013Q2
4,008,751.4 24,802,445
2013Q3
6,279,274.6 38,710,024
2013Q4
9,263,311.1 56,884,521
2014Q1
2,101,002.7 12,821,300
2014Q2
4,458,655.5 27,041,409
2014Q3
7,008,846.4 42,303,100
2014Q4 10,318,570.9 61,982,934
Last data
Own calculation based on official data
Own estimate

2nd.

203,523
529,710
971,517
1,578,127
218,127
563,521
1,032,558
1,653,702
225,814
577,935
1,086,641
1,738,172
266,354
702,751
1,338,503
2,141,273
292,862
743,631
1,404,380
2,242,000
309,301
797,363
1,505,857
2,404,000
365,404
928,332
1,793,680
2,862,700
467,863
1,169,658
2,186,889
3,370,200
462,703
1,183,070
2,214,223
3,522,600
514,364
1,337,908
2,562,314
4,053,360
595,170
1,562,570
3,019,642
4,748,621
692,155
1,746,987
3,308,587
5,237,363
742,700
1,862,200
3,566,900
5,695,700
777,600
2,006,906
3,858,527
6,156,943

3rd.

1,112,740
2,381,328
3,585,614
4,951,229
1,181,132
2,556,260
3,880,726
5,389,677
1,377,641
2,947,803
4,485,308
6,243,631
1,607,735
3,467,449
5,286,959
7,390,431
1,900,300
4,099,768
6,170,069
8,759,809
2,215,631
4,812,773
7,237,497
10,371,954
2,661,100
5,801,376
8,707,107
12,583,136
3,215,840
7,054,347
10,588,924
14,900,344
3,265,848
7,170,267
10,910,119
15,763,878
3,943,611
8,626,097
12,994,725
18,738,321
4,694,422
10,252,664
15,455,208
22,041,281
5,137,422
11,078,517
16,531,631
23,516,199
5,452,834
11,695,537
17,511,783
24,968,442
5,758,700
12,458,669
18,702,200
26,611,680

1,013,690
1,984,048
3,024,688
4,436,161
1,138,311
2,214,320
3,392,387
4,989,890
1,282,727
2,461,148
3,760,982
5,600,473
1,467,976
2,870,389
4,371,295
6,456,129
1,718,581
3,347,858
5,091,255
7,491,928
2,006,651
3,932,716
5,990,772
8,855,488
2,449,085
4,870,181
7,509,320
11,135,195
2,944,675
5,823,777
8,926,801
13,133,999
3,253,141
6,467,023
10,005,991
14,803,804
3,803,364
7,523,877
11,705,635
17,359,598
4,458,362
8,833,577
13,759,616
20,520,502
5,017,620
9,974,805
15,533,937
23,193,448
5,690,674
11,244,708
17,631,341
26,220,379
6,285,000
12,575,835
19,742,373
29,214,311

Million (2000) yuan (chained volume at previous year prices), NSA


As
GDP
Y/Y
1st.
2nd.
3rd.
Reported
2,239,802
8.481%
8.5%
198,494
1,090,162
951,146
4,730,678
8.134%
8.1%
518,428
2,345,820
1,866,430
7,353,062
7.994%
8.0%
943,432
3,559,847
2,849,784
10,746,541
8.316%
8.3% 1,536,029
4,937,289
4,273,223
2,439,532
8.917%
8.9%
205,210
1,189,178
1,045,144
5,152,077
8.908%
8.9%
528,761
2,568,466
2,054,850
8,027,225
9.168%
9.2%
975,916
3,909,891
3,141,418
11,722,050
9.077%
9.1% 1,580,853
5,422,244
4,718,953
2,703,109 10.804%
10.8%
212,589
1,337,772
1,152,748
5,652,154
9.706%
9.7%
539,828
2,871,117
2,241,209
8,838,020 10.101%
10.1% 1,006,039
4,398,822
3,433,160
12,896,209 10.017%
10.0% 1,619,902
6,110,059
5,166,248
2,983,788 10.384%
10.4%
222,402
1,493,176
1,268,211
6,267,303 10.883%
10.9%
563,675
3,201,741
2,501,887
9,763,598 10.473%
10.5% 1,066,589
4,888,297
3,808,712
14,198,204 10.096%
10.1% 1,722,023
6,788,509
5,687,671
3,317,946 11.199%
11.2%
232,634
1,664,904
1,420,408
6,956,847 11.002%
11.0%
591,845
3,573,046
2,791,956
10,844,278 11.068%
11.1% 1,120,226
5,456,974
4,267,078
15,802,350 11.298%
11.3% 1,811,646
7,608,649
6,382,055
3,730,736 12.441%
12.4%
243,013
1,878,989
1,608,733
7,869,006 13.112%
13.1%
621,943
4,072,804
3,174,259
12,233,628 12.812%
12.8% 1,174,913
6,203,276
4,855,438
17,811,692 12.715%
12.7% 1,901,964
8,628,105
7,281,623
4,254,521 14.040%
14.0%
253,618
2,156,329
1,844,574
9,009,498 14.493%
14.5%
646,844
4,696,176
3,666,477
14,001,758 14.453%
14.4% 1,224,736
7,142,621
5,634,401
20,346,006 14.228%
14.2% 1,971,700
9,929,413
8,444,893
4,734,690 11.286%
11.3%
260,498
2,415,390
2,058,802
10,004,508 11.044%
11.0%
668,652
5,253,029
4,082,828
15,486,097 10.601%
10.6% 1,279,048
7,941,785
6,265,264
22,311,225
9.659%
9.6% 2,079,530 10,914,447
9,317,247
5,046,862
6.593%
6.6%
269,632
2,555,643
2,221,587
10,752,663
7.478%
7.5%
694,208
5,627,431
4,431,024
16,759,882
8.225%
8.2% 1,329,888
8,583,625
6,846,369
24,358,063
9.174%
9.2% 2,166,963 11,979,171 10,211,929
5,659,239 12.134%
12.1%
279,794
2,925,330
2,454,115
11,961,015 11.238%
11.2%
718,977
6,374,015
4,868,024
18,556,218 10.718%
10.7% 1,382,976
9,663,532
7,509,710
26,911,532 10.483%
10.4% 2,259,102 13,446,794 11,205,636
6,218,151
9.876%
9.8%
288,827
3,239,023
2,690,301
13,125,893
9.739%
9.7%
740,297
7,047,195
5,338,401
20,331,878
9.569%
9.5% 1,431,868 10,681,442
8,218,568
29,433,832
9.373%
9.3% 2,356,119 14,825,500 12,252,213
6,712,934
7.957%
7.9%
299,644
3,525,432
2,887,857
14,141,572
7.738%
7.7%
771,929
7,622,282
5,747,361
21,880,557
7.617%
7.6% 1,491,856 11,522,600
8,866,102
31,701,153
7.703%
7.7% 2,462,646 15,994,842 13,243,665
7,233,812
7.759%
7.7%
309,662
3,798,324
3,125,827
15,218,572
7.616%
7.6%
794,912
8,200,208
6,223,452
23,569,996
7.721%
7.7% 1,542,234 12,419,185
9,608,577
34,144,669
7.708%
7.7% 2,561,943 17,241,291 14,341,435
7,767,429
7.377%
7.4%
320,569
4,076,487
3,370,373
16,336,598
7.346%
826,652
8,788,692
6,721,254
25,280,517
7.257%
1,598,946 13,319,475 10,362,097
36,462,677
6.789%
2,644,680 18,451,906 15,366,091

Quarterly Data
Reference
Quarter
data
Million USD

Million (2000) yuan (chained volume), NSA


GDP

Y/Y

2001Q1
281,483.5
2,239,802
8.481%
2001Q2
309,908.8
2,490,875
7.824%
2001Q3
324,606.5
2,622,385
7.743%
2001Q4
408,821.8
3,393,478
9.020%
2002Q1
306,579.6
2,439,532
8.917%
2002Q2
337,868.3
2,712,545
8.899%
2002Q3
359,022.0
2,875,148
9.639%
2002Q4
450,337.3
3,694,825
8.880%
2003Q1
348,675.3
2,703,109 10.804%
2003Q2
374,614.2
2,949,045
8.719%
2003Q3
404,250.3
3,185,867 10.807%
2003Q4
513,397.9
4,058,189
9.834%
2004Q1
403,774.5
2,983,788 10.384%
2004Q2
446,849.9
3,283,515 11.342%
2004Q3
477,986.9
3,496,295
9.744%
2004Q4
603,040.8
4,434,605
9.275%
2005Q1
472,632.5
3,317,946 11.199%
2005Q2
517,068.1
3,638,901 10.823%
2005Q3
549,906.2
3,887,431 11.187%
2005Q4
721,019.8
4,958,072 11.804%
2006Q1
562,906.9
3,730,736 12.441%
2006Q2
625,566.3
4,138,270 13.723%
2006Q3
651,688.5
4,364,622 12.275%
2006Q4
877,155.3
5,578,065 12.505%
2007Q1
705,731.0
4,254,521 14.040%
2007Q2
797,420.6
4,754,977 14.903%
2007Q3
848,071.1
4,992,261 14.380%
2007Q4
1,152,862.8
6,344,247 13.736%
2008Q1
925,575.0
4,734,690 11.286%
2008Q2
1,065,971.9
5,269,819 10.827%
2008Q3
1,119,367.8
5,481,589
9.802%
2008Q4
1,418,517.3
6,825,128
7.580%
2009Q1
1,021,297.5
5,046,862
6.593%
2009Q2
1,147,791.7
5,705,801
8.273%
2009Q3
1,216,584.1
6,007,219
9.589%
2009Q4
1,605,369.7
7,598,181 11.327%
2010Q1
1,210,076.5
5,659,239 12.134%
2010Q2
1,352,132.1
6,301,776 10.445%
2010Q3
1,444,259.8
6,595,203
9.788%
2010Q4
1,935,948.6
8,355,314
9.965%
2011Q1
1,481,825.0
6,218,151
9.876%
2011Q2
1,677,418.6
6,907,742
9.616%
2011Q3
1,805,888.6
7,205,985
9.261%
2011Q4
2,370,925.3
9,101,954
8.936%
2012Q1
1,719,587.4
6,712,934
7.957%
2012Q2
1,888,437.8
7,428,639
7.541%
2012Q3
1,979,631.5
7,738,985
7.397%
2012Q4
2,654,041.6
9,820,596
7.895%
2013Q1
1,910,114.1
7,233,812
7.759%
2013Q2
2,098,637.3
7,984,760
7.486%
2013Q3
2,270,523.2
8,351,424
7.914%
2013Q4
2,984,036.5 10,574,674
7.679%
2014Q1
2,101,002.7
7,767,429
7.377%
2014Q2
2,357,652.8
8,569,168
7.319%
2014Q3
2,550,190.9
8,943,920
7.095%
2014Q4
3,309,724.4 11,182,160
5.745%
Last data
Own calculation based on official data
Seasonally adjusted data is our own estimate
Own estimate

Also see:
China 1Q2014 Statistics
China GDP 4Q2013

1st.
198,494
319,934
425,004
592,597
205,210
323,551
447,155
604,937
212,589
327,239
466,211
613,863
222,402
341,274
502,914
655,434
232,634
359,211
528,381
691,421
243,013
378,930
552,970
727,051
253,618
393,226
577,892
746,963
260,498
408,154
610,396
800,482
269,632
424,576
635,680
837,075
279,794
439,183
664,000
876,125
288,827
451,469
691,571
924,251
299,644
472,285
719,927
970,790
309,662
485,251
747,322
1,019,709
320,569
506,082
772,294
1,045,735

2nd.
1,090,162
1,255,658
1,214,027
1,377,442
1,189,178
1,379,287
1,341,425
1,512,354
1,337,772
1,533,345
1,527,705
1,711,237
1,493,176
1,708,565
1,686,556
1,900,212
1,664,904
1,908,141
1,883,928
2,151,675
1,878,989
2,193,814
2,130,473
2,424,829
2,156,329
2,539,847
2,446,445
2,786,792
2,415,390
2,837,639
2,688,757
2,972,662
2,555,643
3,071,788
2,956,195
3,395,546
2,925,330
3,448,684
3,289,517
3,783,262
3,239,023
3,808,172
3,634,247
4,144,058
3,525,432
4,096,850
3,900,317
4,472,242
3,798,324
4,401,884
4,218,977
4,822,106
4,076,487
4,712,205
4,530,783
5,132,431

3rd.
951,146
915,284
983,353
1,423,439
1,045,144
1,009,706
1,086,568
1,577,535
1,152,748
1,088,461
1,191,951
1,733,088
1,268,211
1,233,676
1,306,825
1,878,960
1,420,408
1,371,549
1,475,122
2,114,976
1,608,733
1,565,526
1,681,179
2,426,185
1,844,574
1,821,903
1,967,924
2,810,492
2,058,802
2,024,026
2,182,436
3,051,984
2,221,587
2,209,437
2,415,345
3,365,560
2,454,115
2,413,909
2,641,686
3,695,926
2,690,301
2,648,100
2,880,167
4,033,645
2,887,857
2,859,504
3,118,741
4,377,564
3,125,827
3,097,625
3,385,125
4,732,858
3,370,373
3,350,881
3,640,843
5,003,994

Million (2000) yuan (chained volume at previous year prices), SA


as
GDP
Q/Q
Discr.
1st.
2nd.
3rd.
Reported
2,611,308 2.269%
382,347 1,199,323 1,029,876
-239
2,645,787 1.320%
379,992 1,223,913 1,042,099
-217
2,708,088 2.355%
386,919 1,247,942 1,072,868
359
2,781,357 2.706%
386,771 1,266,110 1,128,380
96
2,822,713 1.487%
388,374 1,299,927 1,134,220
191
2,916,719 3.330%
393,344 1,340,919 1,182,023
432
2,960,640 1.506%
397,450 1,368,847 1,194,448
-105
3,021,979 2.072%
401,684 1,412,550 1,208,262
-518
3,115,938 3.109%
401,527 1,463,423 1,251,383
-395
3,152,586 1.176%
404,267 1,495,703 1,253,333
-718
3,271,377 3.768%
405,129 1,554,258 1,311,780
209
3,356,308 2.596%
408,978 1,596,675 1,349,751
904
3,412,601 1.677%
419,466 1,630,634 1,362,247
254
3,535,243 3.594%
425,783 1,684,113 1,424,955
393
3,581,615 1.312%
435,159 1,714,945 1,431,950
-438
3,668,745 2.433%
441,616 1,758,817 1,468,520
-208
3,777,694 2.970%
446,331 1,811,190 1,520,288
-114
3,862,714 2.251%
450,778 1,857,992 1,553,981
-36
4,015,326 3.951%
455,315 1,931,776 1,628,371
-136
4,146,616 3.270%
459,223 2,007,692 1,679,415
286
4,266,489 2.891%
464,159 2,064,360 1,737,572
398
4,404,601 3.237%
472,583 2,137,670 1,794,162
185
4,509,369 2.379%
477,608 2,191,398 1,840,410
-47
4,631,234 2.702%
487,614 2,234,677 1,909,479
-536
4,827,665 4.241%
489,624 2,342,657 1,996,264
-881
4,994,273 3.451%
491,676 2,426,481 2,076,803
-686
5,169,473 3.508%
495,656 2,520,111 2,153,557
149
5,354,595 3.581%
494,744 2,640,164 2,218,269 1,418
5,466,815 2.096%
507,450 2,688,899 2,270,621
-154
5,537,815 1.299%
514,617 2,719,206 2,303,452
541
5,621,502 1.511%
523,375 2,751,603 2,345,573
951
5,685,092 1.131%
534,089 2,754,739 2,397,602 -1,338
5,790,034 1.846%
533,989 2,813,057 2,442,690
299
5,998,868 3.607%
539,630 2,934,614 2,524,323
301
6,186,230 3.123%
543,961 3,049,473 2,593,512
-717
6,382,931 3.180%
549,383 3,182,027 2,651,403
117
6,556,588 2.721%
556,296 3,282,056 2,718,559
-323
6,653,098 1.472%
563,359 3,325,570 2,764,661
-492
6,777,691 1.873%
567,862 3,382,611 2,827,084
134
6,924,155 2.161%
571,585 3,456,557 2,895,333
680
7,105,826 2.624%
2.3% 579,287 3,556,755 2,970,155
-371
7,287,930 2.563%
2.5% 582,322 3,669,492 3,036,561
-445
7,453,722 2.275%
2.2% 592,758 3,768,332 3,092,294
338
7,586,354 1.779%
1.8% 601,752 3,830,921 3,153,203
478
7,715,935 1.708%
1.4% 606,063 3,901,506 3,208,318
48
7,854,277 1.793%
2.1% 616,836 3,959,225 3,278,063
153
7,985,725 1.674%
2.0% 617,851 4,021,588 3,346,384
-97
8,145,216 1.997%
1.9% 621,895 4,112,523 3,410,901
-103
8,312,111 2.049%
1.5% 633,571 4,190,211 3,488,290
40
8,452,169 1.685%
1.8% 634,146 4,271,184 3,546,988
-149
8,612,149 1.893%
2.3% 643,252 4,353,202 3,615,403
292
8,768,239 1.812%
1.7% 650,973 4,426,694 3,690,755
-183
8,878,913 1.262%
1.4% 646,991 4,493,720 3,738,481
-278
9,044,517 1.865%
658,634 4,576,170 3,809,630
83
9,197,026 1.686%
666,186 4,652,482 3,878,357
1
9,342,221 1.579%
672,870 4,729,533 3,939,623
195

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