Report

SkyTrain Fleet Order Strategy

For a Network expanding to Expo, Millennium and Evergreen An Analysis with the Regional Transit Model (RTM)

Total Rolling Stock Capacity (Seat and Standing) 55000 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 2004 MaxCap Fast MaxCap Slow 3-Car Mix 2-Car Only

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Vancouver, B.C. / Wilmington, DE, August 2008

PTV America Inc. 408-675 West Hastings Street Vancouver, BC, V6B 1N2 (604) 435-2895

South Coast British Columbia Transportation Authority 4720 Kingsway, Suite 1600 Burnaby, B.C., V5H 4N2 (604) 453 3058

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Table of Contents 1. 2. Introduction ..................................................................................................................4 Assumptions ................................................................................................................5 2.1. 2.2. 3. Fleet and Orders Operations Scenarios 5 6

Order Strategies ...........................................................................................................8 3.1. 3.2. 3.3. Demand Order Timelines Measures of Performance 8 9 12

4.

Conclusions ................................................................................................................16

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Tables Table 1: Order Strategies ........................................................................................................4 Table 2: Capacities for Various Train Types ...........................................................................5 Table 3: Operations Scenarios at a Glance............................................................................6 Table 4: Operations Scenario ..................................................................................................7 Table 5: M-II Train Unit Orders ................................................................................................9

Figures Figure 1: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy MaxCap Fast ...................................10 Figure 2: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy MaxCap Slow ..................................10 Figure 3: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy 3-Car Mix ........................................11 Figure 4: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy 2-Car Only .......................................11 Figure 5: Total Rolling Stock Capacity ..................................................................................12 Figure 6: BW-WF AM Peak Hour Capacity ...........................................................................13 Figure 7: CO-KG AM Peak Hour Capacity ............................................................................14 Figure 8: CO-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity .............................................................................14 Figure 9: VC-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity .............................................................................15

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1.

Introduction

The ultimate capacity of the SkyTrain system is determined by the train unit configuration and scheduled headway. The longest trains considered in this study are 6-car Mark-I trains and 5-car Mark-II trains. Both trains can be operated without expensive modifications to the stations (specifically platform lengthening). The 5-car Mark-II trains would consist of one 2-car and one 3car unit. The latter would be new to the SkyTrain fleet and the decision if and when to start adding 3-car units to the fleet has raised attention. The purpose of this study is to determine the order strategy for 2-Mk-II units and 3-Mk-II units to provide the necessary capacity to the SkyTrain system. Our methodology is based on two main ideas: 1. A set of operations scenarios determines the range of fleet requirement. The scenarios have been selected either because they are very likely in the near future or because they stand for extreme points in the future (like minimal capacity or maximal capacity). 2. A set of order strategies is defined to describe the range of possible approaches from the decision makers point of view. These strategies are analyzed from 2007 to 2020 to see which scenarios they allow to operate and what options they exclude in the future. The four strategies are outlined below in Table 1. Table 1: Order Strategies Order Strategy MaxCap Fast Description Build fleet to maximum capacity (5 car M-II trains) as quickly as possible. Build fleet to maximum capacity (5 car M-II trains) but follow the same number of train blocks determined from the order strategy 2-Car Only Build a mixed fleet to operate 5 car, 4 car and 3 car M-II trains following the same number of blocks determined from conservative demand. Build a fleet of only 4 car and 2 car M-II trains determined from the conservative demand.

MaxCap Slow

3-Car Mix 2-Car Only

This analysis is based on results from previous studies that were conducted with the Regional Transit Model (RTM), in particular the Maximum Capacity for SkyTrain study and the ongoing Evergreen as SkyTrain project.
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2.
2.1.

Assumptions
Fleet and Orders

The current SkyTrain fleet consists of 75 Mark I 2 car units (2-Mk-I) and 30 Mark II 2 car units (2Mk-II). In addition, 17 2-Mk-II units have been ordered and are currently under construction with an estimated delivery date of October 2008 to March 2009. Furthermore, in April 2008 the TransLink board approved proceeding with an option for 7 2-Mk-II units, to arrive by February 2010. Beyond these units, TransLink is also investigating an option for 12 2-Mk-II units, which must be awarded by 22 June 2009. It is assumed that it would be impossible to change the first two orders to 3 M-II units instead of 2 M-II units. The 2-Mk-I units do not have an explicit phase out date but for this study, we are assuming that they would be retired by 2020 (age of 35 years old). The spare rate is assumed to be 7% for each type of train unit. As explained in the introduction, this study considers a 5-car-Mark-II the train of maximal capacity. 6-car-Mark-II trains are excluded from the analysis. The following train capacities are assumed: Table 2: Capacities for Various Train Types
Length (Cars) 4-Mark-I 6-Mark-I 2-Mark-II 3-Mark-II 4-Mark-II 5-Mark-II 4 6 2 3 4 5 Capacity (Seat only) 144 216 84 126 168 210 Capacity (Seat & Stand) 300 450 238 357 476 595

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2.2.

Operations Scenarios

26 operation scenarios were considered and assumed. Table 3 and

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Table 4 describe each scenario in terms of routes schemes, blocks, train assignments and headways. Table 3: Operations Scenarios at a Glance 2-Car Only 2006 2007 2009 2011 2014 before Evergreen opening 2021 with Evergreen before Broadway opening Evergreen Study: Scenario 8a Break at CO 90s 3-Car Mix MaxCap Slow MaxCap Fast

108s combined headway on main branch 96s headway on WF-BW and 108s headway on rest of main branch As 2006 but higher capacity due to expanded fleet and longer trains Split tail operations (WF-KG & WF-LH & LH-VC), 108s headway Split tail, 108s headway Split tail, 90s headway

Evergreen Study: Scenario 4 Doubly Coordinated 90s

Evergreen Study: Scenario 8a Break at CO 90s

Evergreen Study: Scenario 8a Break at CO 90s

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Table 4: Operations Scenario

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3.
3.1.

Order Strategies
Demand

A conservative demand was established in order to provide a reference for the minimum SkyTrain fleet required to service that demand. The conservative demand is based on the 2020 demand on the critical link of Broadway to Main from Phase A model report and the 2020 demand from the Evergreen Line Business Case. The order strategies 3-Car Mix and 2-Car Only results in a fleet that provides enough capacity to meet the conservative demand with a level of service similar to todays operations. Any fleet that contains the number of blocks and train capacity above the 2 Car Only Fleet would offer a higher level of service over todays service. For example, the fleet resulting from the order strategy MaxCap Fast will provide more capacity in the system (more people will be able to sit and fewer passups compared to today). Additional capacity may also support reduced dwell times at key stations since there will be a reduced requirement for passengers to alight and reboard to let other passengers out in congested conditions.

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3.2.

Order Timelines

For each scenario together within the constraints assumed (e.g. spare rate, order assumptions), the M-II train unit orders were computed. The M-II train unit orders at each point in time is summarized in Table 5. Following the train unit orders described in Table 5 will result in a fleet shown in Figure 1. Table 5: M-II Train Unit Orders
2007 Year 2009 2009 2009 2009 2011 2011 2011 2011 2014 2014 2014 2014 2020 2020 2020 2020 Strategy 2-Car Only MaxCap Fast MaxCap Slow 3-Car Mix 2-Car Only MaxCap Fast MaxCap Slow 3-Car Mix 2-Car Only MaxCap Fast MaxCap Slow 3-Car Mix 2-Car Only MaxCap Fast MaxCap Slow 3-Car Mix 2-car 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 3-car 2008 2-car 3-car 2009 2-car 3-car 2010-2014 Before Evergreen 2-car 3-car 2015-2020 Before Broadway 2-car 3-car 34 34 34 34 48 48 48 48 96 201 165 107 254 386 316 287 Total Cars Ordered

7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7

24 51 39 11 51 39 11 79 19 5 21 49 47 46

13 24

13

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Figure 1: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy MaxCap Fast
Fleet as a Result of Order Strategy: MaxCap Fast

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006 2007 2009 2011 2014 2020 2-M-I 2-M-II 3-M-II

Figure 2: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy MaxCap Slow
Fleet as a Result of Order Strategy: MaxCap Slow

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006 2007 2009 2011 2014 2020 2-M-I 2-M-II 3-M-II

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Figure 3: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy 3-Car Mix
Fleet as a Result of Order Strategy: 3-Car Mix

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006 2007 2009 2011 2014 2020 2-M-I 2-M-II 3-M-II

Figure 4: Fleet Size in Train Units for Order Strategy 2-Car Only
Fleet as a Result of Order Strategy: 2-Car Only

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2006 2007 2009 2011 2014 2020 2-M-I 2-M-II 3-M-II

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3.3.

Measures of Performance

For each order strategy, the resulting total rolling stock capacity is shown in Figure 5. Figure 5: Total Rolling Stock Capacity
Total Rolling Stock Capacity (Seat and Standing) 55000 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 2004 MaxCap Fast MaxCap Slow 3-Car Mix 2-Car Only

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For each order strategy, the resulting AM peak hour capacity at the critical Broadway (BW) to Waterfront (WF) section and the projected demand is shown in Figure 6. Figure 6: BW-WF AM Peak Hour Capacity
BW-WF AM Peak Hour Capacity (Seat and Standing) 25000 MaxCap Fast MaxCap Slow 3-Car Mix 2-Car Only Demand

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Figure 7, Figure 8 and Figure 9 shows the resulting AM peak hour capacity at the CO-KG, CO-LH and VC-LH sections.

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Figure 7: CO-KG AM Peak Hour Capacity

CO-KG AM Peak Hour Capacity (Seat and Standing) 25000 MaxCap Fast MaxCap Slow 3-Car Mix 2-Car Only

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Figure 8: CO-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity

CO-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity (Seat and Standing) 25000 MaxCap Fast MaxCap Slow 3-Car Mix 2-Car Only

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Figure 9: VC-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity

VC-LH AM Peak Hour Capacity (Seat and Standing) 25000 MaxCap Fast MaxCap Slow 3-Car Mix 2-Car Only

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4.

Conclusions

The principal thought is that the best strategy is one that maximizes the number of options that are kept available in an uncertain future. Translated to TransLinks SkyTrain fleet order strategy, this means that the best strategy will be the one that allows in the future the greatest flexibility to choose between maximum and minimum capacity operations. Following that rationale, it is recommended that: Ideally, the ordering of 2-Mk-II units be halted after the currently approved first option for seven additional 2-Mk-II units is exercised. 3-Mk-II units be ordered as soon as possible. The reason for this is that unless 3Mk-II units are ordered, maximum capacity operations with 5-car trains would result in unacceptably high spare rates of 2-car units. A Broadway extension of the Millennium Line would allow more 2-car units to be ordered, but no decision should be taken until this extension is assured.

Should TransLink exercise the second option for an additional 12 2-car Mark II units, the Mark II fleet will total 66 2-Mk-II units. This will require 4-car Mark II trains to operate on an interim basis in place of some 5-car trains, similar to the 2014 3-car Mix scenario. However, the full fleet of 2car Mark II units, would be utilized into the future, with no lost capacity if the MaxCap fast scenario is followed as it requires 73 2-car Mark II units. Therefore exercising the second option would change the ideal sequence for reaching maximum capacity, but is compatible with reaching maximum capacity. Exercising the second option should be seen as a convenient way to buy capacity (and time) to ensure adequate capacity can be provided while 3-car units are designed, procured, and infrastructure modified to accommodate them. Assuming the second option is exercised, the following train assignment would be an obvious option to provide more consistent train-to-train capacity with the current number of peak trains: 4-car Mark I 6-car Mark I 2-car Mark II 4-car Mark II Total fleet used, AM Peak: Expo Millennium 8 2 15 30 134 Mark I (11% spare) and 120 Mark II (10% spare)

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