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Report

Operations Scenarios for Evergreen Line as ALRT

An Analysis with the Regional Transit Model (RTM)

as ALRT An Analysis with the Regional Transit Model (RTM) Vancouver, B.C. / Wilmi ngton, DE,

Vancouver, B.C. / Wilmington, DE, August 2008

Model (RTM) Vancouver, B.C. / Wilmi ngton, DE, August 2008 PTV America Inc. 408-675 West Hastings

PTV America Inc. 408-675 West Hastings Street Vancouver, BC, V6B 1N2 (604) 435-2895

West Hastings Street Vancouver, BC, V6B 1N2 (604) 435-2895 South Coast British Columbia Transportation Authority 4720

South Coast British Columbia Transportation Authority 4720 Kingsway, Suite 1600 Burnaby, B.C., V5H 4N2 (604) 453 3058

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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Table of Contents

1. Background

5

2. Operations Scenarios

7

2.1. Fleet

7

2.2. Stations, Alignment and Run Times

8

2.3. Service Patterns and Headways

11

2.4. Layover and Recovery Assumptions

12

2.5. Preliminary Operations Analysis and Line Blocking

13

3. Travel Demand Estimation

14

3.1. Adjustment of SkyTrain Demand for 2007

14

3.2. Import of Emme Forecasts

14

3.3. Deriving Basic Components of Future Travel Demand

18

3.4. Resulting Travel Demand for 2014 and 2021

19

3.5. Assignment Results

20

4. Integrated Operations Analysis

24

4.1. Operations Analysis with Four Scenarios for the AM Peak

24

4.2. Selection of the Preferred Scenario

31

4.3. 24-Hour Operations Analysis for the Preferred Scenario

31

5. Conclusions

34

Appendix A: Scenario Composition and Route Names in VISUM

35

Appendix B: Assignment Results for 2007

36

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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Tables

Table 1: Capacities for Various Train Types

7

Table 2: Evergreen Line Inbound: Distances, Run and Dwell times

8

Table 3: Evergreen Line Outbound: Distances, Run and Dwell times

8

Table 4: Comparison of SkyTrain Average Operating Speeds

10

Table 5: Operating scenarios and Operating Assumptions

13

Table 6: SkyTrain and WCE 2006: Trip Totals in the OD Matrices

14

Table 7: Rapid Transit Ridership 2014: Total Linked Trips and Component of the Total

19

Table 8: Rapid Transit Ridership 2021: Total Linked Trips and Component of the Total

19

Table 9: Train Assignment Peak-Operations 2021

24

Table 10: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Split Tail: Ridership and Operations Statistics

25

Table 11: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at LH: Ridership and Operations Statistics

26

Table 12: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at CO (108s): Ridership and Operations Statistics27

Table 13: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at CO (90s): Ridership and Operations Statistics 28

Table 14: Rapid Transit Network 2014 and 2021: 24-Hour Model Results

33

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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Figures

Figure 1: Evergreen Line Alignments for LRT and ALRT

6

Figure 2: Regression Analysis for Station-to-Station Operating Speeds

9

Figure 3: Lines and Route Schemes

11

Figure 4: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between ALRT and Base Scenarios

15

Figure 5: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between Future-Base and 2004-Base

16

Figure 6: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between ALRT and 2004-Base Scenarios

17

Figure 7: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 1 - Split Tail - 108s Expo HW

20

Figure 8: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 5 - Break at LH - 108s Expo HW

20

Figure 9: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 7a - Break at CO - 108s Expo HW

21

Figure 10: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 8a - Break at CO - 90s Expo HW

21

Figure 11: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 1 - Split Tail - 108s Expo HW

22

Figure 12: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 5 - Break at LH - 108s Expo HW

22

Figure 13: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 7a - Break at CO - 108s Expo HW

23

Figure 14: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 8a - Break at CO - 90s Expo HW

23

Figure 15: Scenario Comparison: Ridership Impact 2021

29

Figure 16: Scenario Comparison: Operations Impact 2021

30

Figure 17: Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows in Network View, 2014

32

Figure 18: Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows in Network View, 2021

32

Figure 19: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2007

36

Figure 20: Passenger Loads 24-hour, 2007

36

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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1.

Background

The Evergreen Line is planned to link Lougheed SkyTrain Station in Burnaby to Port Moody and Coquitlam with the terminus at Douglas College. Back in 2006 and early 2007 when the Regional Transit Model (RTM) Phase A was built, the preferred technology and alignment option for the Evergreen Line was a mainly-surface Light Rail Transit (LRT) line along the Northwest alignment. This option was coded into RTM Phase A - consistent with detailed microsimulation work performed by Delcan and PTV America. Since that time “circumstances and priorities that affected the 2004 choice of technology and route for the Evergreen Line have changed considerably” (cited from “Evergreen Line Rapid Transit Project - Business Case” document of February 2008 (http://www.translink.bc.ca/files/pdf/EvergreenLine/BusinessCase.pdf). The most important change is that the preferred technology for the Evergreen Line is now Advanced LRT (ALRT) which is coined as “SkyTrain-like”. The preferred alignment is still the Northwest corridor with some differences to the LRT alignment, as shown in Figure 1.

The objectives of the “Evergreen Line as ALRT” study are:

Update the RTM Phase A model so that the Evergreen Line option is consistent with the Business Case document of February 2008. This updated model can then be used in future studies namely the Broadway West Rapid Transit Study, the 5-Car SkyTrain Fleet Strategy Analysis and future RTM Phase B scenarios.

Analyze the capacity and volume to capacity (v/c) ratios on the Evergreen Line and along the existing Expo and Millennium Lines.

Determine the fleet requirements for SkyTrain if Evergreen Line provides a high service quality which minimizes pass-ups.

The basis of this analysis is the RTM Phase A model, which was updated as part of the study to reflect the most recent boarding and transfer counts for 2007. The forecast years are 2014 and 2021, to be consistent with the Business Case document. The analysis of performance will follow the same principles and methods applied for the SkyTrain operations scenarios that were analyzed as part of the RTM Phase A project.

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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Figure 1: Evergreen Line Alignments for LRT and ALRT

LRT:

LRT: ALRT:

ALRT:

LRT: ALRT:

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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2. Operations Scenarios

To develop ALRT operations on the Evergreen Line, a set of assumptions are necessary that cover fleet, route and service schemes and train assignment.

2.1.

Fleet

It is assumed that the fleet in 2015 includes at least the following cars:

150 Mark-I

132 2-car Mark-II

Some 3-car Mark-II

For various train types the following capacities have been assumed, which have been jointly defined by BCRTC and TransLink for peak-capacity planning at the start of the RTM project:

Table 1: Capacities for Various Train Types

 

Length

Capacity

Capacity (Seat & Stand)

(Cars)

(Seat only)

4-Mark-I

4

144

300

6-Mark-I

6

216

450

2-Mark-II

2

84

238

3-Mark-II

3

126

357

4-Mark-II

4

168

476

5-Mark-II

5

210

595

6-Mark-II

6

252

714

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2.2. Stations, Alignment and Run Times

Stations and Alignment

The preferred alignment in the Northwest corridor for the Evergreen Line as “SkyTrain-like” service has been modeled in VISUM (see Figure 1). The route starts from the existing Lougheed SkyTrain station and ends at Guildford. The route has eight stations including the existing station at Lougheed Town Centre. This corresponds to the latest state of TransLink’s planning in June 2008. It is assumed that run and dwell times for both directions are constant over the entire day, so that the same time-profile applies to peak and off-peak hours. The following two tables display all station stops as well as stop-to-stop distances, run and dwell times for both directions of the line:

Table 2: Evergreen Line Inbound: Distances, Run and Dwell times

Station Name

Code

Length

[km]

Accumulated

length

Station

dwell

Segment run time at arrival

Accumulated run&dwell times at arr.

[km]

time

Guildford

GU

 

0

0s

 

0min

Lincoln

LI

0.84

0.84

12s

1min 19s

1min 19s

Coquitlam Central

CC

0.83

1.67

15s

1min 18s

2min 49s

Ioco

IO

1.93

3.60

12s

2min 14s

5min 18s

Port Moody

PM

1.47

5.07

15s

1min 55s

7min 25s

Queens

QUE

0.9

5.97

12s

1min 23s

9min 3s

Burquitlam

BQ

3.23

9.20

12s

2min 52s

12min 7s

Lougheed

LH

2.01

11.21

25s

2min 17s

14min 36s

Table 3: Evergreen Line Outbound: Distances, Run and Dwell times

Station Name

Code

Length

[km]

Accumulated

length

Station

dwell

Segment run time at arrival

Accumulated run&dwell times at arr.

[km]

time

Lougheed

LH

   

0s

0s

0min

Burquitlam

BQ

2.01

2.01

12s

2min 16s

2min 16s

Queens

QUE

3.22

5.23

12s

2min 52s

5min 20s

Port Moody

PM

0.91

6.14

15s

1min 24s

6min 56s

Ioco

IO

1.44

7.58

12s

1min 53s

9min 4s

Coquitlam Central

CC

1.92

9.50

15s

2min 14s

11min 30s

Lincoln

LI

0.81

10.31

12s

1min 17s

13min 2s

Guildford

GU

0.84

11.15

12s

1min 19s

14min 33s

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Estimation of run and dwell times.

The business case document was based on a simple travel time assumption for the Evergreen- SkyTrain. To model the Evergreen SkyTrain in the RTM study a detailed estimation of operating speeds and times has been performed based on the assumption that running times between stations can be derived from average speeds currently observed on the Expo and Millennium lines. To account for the fact that distances between consecutive stations affect average speed an approximation based on regression of station to station run times has been used. The regression analysis resulted in the following formula for the station-to-station run times:

average speed [m/s] = 7.69 + 3.46 x distance [km]

The following picture shows station-to-station travel times on the existing SkyTrain and how the regression curve fits these times.

Figure 2: Regression Analysis for Station-to-Station Operating Speeds

25 20 15 10 Existing SkyTrain Speed (Expo & Millennium) 5 Regression speed = 7.69
25
20
15
10
Existing SkyTrain Speed (Expo & Millennium)
5
Regression speed = 7.69 + 3.46 x distance
0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Average Operating Speed [m/s]

Station-to-Station Distance [km]

A dwell time of 12 seconds has been assumed for all stations apart from Port Moody and Coquitlam Central where passengers transfer to other services. A dwell time of 12 seconds corresponds to the minimum dwell time at existing stations of the Expo and Millennium lines where the number of passenger boardings and alightings are generally higher than expected for the

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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intermediate stations of the Evergreen line.

These assumptions have resulted in a total travel time of 14 minutes and 36 seconds inbound and 14 minutes and 33 seconds outbound. Given the length of the two routes, this corresponds to an average speed of approximately 46km/h which is due to shorter dwell times permitting an average speed higher than that of existing SkyTrain services (Expo and Millennium), which is between 41 and 43 km/h depending on the Line and on the time of day.

Note that these results have led to a revision the ALRT assumptions in the Business Case documents and model runs which used a significantly higher operating speed.

Table 4: Comparison of SkyTrain Average Operating Speeds

 

Average Op. Speed * (km/h)

 

Total One-way

Line

Direction

Time of Day

Stops Served

Length

(km)

Op. Time

(min)

Expo

Outbound >

AM

20

42.8

28.9

40.6

Expo

Outbound >

Mid

20

43.1

28.9

40.4

Expo

Outbound >

PM

20

41.9

28.9

41.5

Expo

Inbound <

AM

20

41.2

28.8

42.0

Expo

Inbound <

Mid

20

42.3

28.8

40.9

Expo

Inbound <

PM

20

42.0

28.8

41.2

Millennium

Outbound >

AM

28

42.1

42.0

59.9

Millennium

Outbound >

Mid

28

42.6

42.0

59.2

Millennium

Outbound >

PM

28

41.5

42.0

60.8

Millennium

Inbound <

AM

28

41.6

42.1

60.7

Millennium

Inbound <

Mid

28

42.3

42.1

59.7

Millennium

Inbound <

PM

28

42.1

42.1

60.0

Evergreen LH-GU ** Evergreen LH-GU **

>

AM, Mid, PM AM, Mid, PM

8

46.3

11.2

14.5

<

8

46.3

11.2

14.5

* : Total operating time and average op. speed do not include the recovery time spent at the first stop of a route. This definition is identical to VISUM’s operating statistics but different from BCRTC’s published operating speeds which include recovery times at terminal stations and as a result are slower ** : In scenarios where the Evergreen Line follows Millennium from LH to VC, run and dwell times and as a result speed have been assumed identical to Millennium operations in 2007.

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2.3. Service Patterns and Headways

Four different route schemes have been considered in this study. Figure 3 illustrates the four alternatives.

Figure 3: Lines and Route Schemes

Split Tail

Double Coordinated

Split Tail Double Coordinated Break at CO Break at LH
Split Tail Double Coordinated Break at CO Break at LH

Break at CO

Break at LH

Split Tail Double Coordinated Break at CO Break at LH
Split Tail Double Coordinated Break at CO Break at LH

The Split Tail scenario is consistent with the service schemes in the MaxCap study (conducted with the RTM in 4/2008 for the existing SkyTrain network) and has almost identical round trip times for both Expo and Millennium Lines, which is practical to coordinate headways of both lines. In the Double Coordinated scenario, the Millennium Line needs to coordinate the schedules with both the Expo and the Evergreen Lines to assure regular headways. The Break at Columbia scenario avoids any parallel operation of routes, except an Expo short turn. The Millennium line is reduced to the CO-LH shuttle. This scenario can only be operated with a significant redesign of the Columbia station so that the shuttle can turn without interfering with the Expo trains. The routes in the Break at Lougheed scenario are identical to the LRT case forcing Evergreen passengers to transfer at LH station while Expo and Millennium operate similarily to 2006 operations.

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2.4. Layover and Recovery Assumptions

Recovery and layover times are assumed as follows:

Waterfront outbound (Expo & Millennium): recovery of 75s for a 108s headway (similar to 2006 operations) and 60s for a 90s headway.

King George inbound (Expo) as well as VCC Outbound (Millennium & Expo): recovery of 120-150s - similar to 2006.

Coquitlam/Guildford inbound (Evergreen): recovery of 90-120s

Lougheed (Millennium in Split-Tail): recovery of 120-150s

Metrotown (Expo short turn in Break at CO): less than 60s.

Overall, Expo and Millennium would have 3-4 minutes recovery per roundtrip, Evergreen around 3 minutes.

Building a third track at Columbia in the “back” of the Columbia inbound platform will allow the Lougheed shuttle to avoid sharing the track with the Expo main line trains. A crossover for the shuttle would be needed outside Columbia station, likely in the vicinity of the unbuilt Woodlands Station (approximately 950 metres from Columbia).

At Lougheed, the track configuration that has been pre-built as part of the Millennium Line project will permit the CO-LH shuttle operation with only a very limited conflict between shuttle trains and outbound Millennium-Evergreen trains.

Short dwell times (15s-30s) at LH station for the CO-LH shuttle. Recovery for the shuttle only at Columbia station. Total recovery time can be short but will be longer than needed (over 180s) given the long headway.

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2.5. Preliminary Operations Analysis and Line Blocking

A range of operational scenarios has been developed, in most cases without detailed simulation. For four scenarios (highlighted grey in Table 5), operations have been modeled in VISUM.

Table 5: Operating scenarios and Operating Assumptions

Scenarios

 

Split Tail

 

Double-Coordinated

Break at LH

Break at CO

and Routes

1 *

   

2

 

3

4

5 *

 

6

7a *

8a *

Evergreen

 

GU-VC

   

GU-VC

   

GU-LH

   

GU-VC

Expo

WF-KG

WF-KG

WF-KG

WF-KG, WF-MT

Millennium

WF-LH

WF-VC

WF-VC, LH-VC

 

CO-LH

Schedule **

           

Evergreen

180s

 

180s

3

/ 5

3 / 5

180s

 

180s

180s

180s

Expo

3

/ 5

3

/ 5

3

/ 5

2 / 3

2 / 3

2 / 3

2 / 3

2 / 3

Expo WF-MT

       

1 / 3

1 / 3

Millennium

2

/ 5

 

2

/ 5

2/5&2/5

 

1/3&2/5

1 / 3

 

1 / 3

 

CO-LH shuttle

       

255s

255s

Avg. HW [s] Evergreen Expo Expo WF-MT Millennium Mill VC-LH CO-LH shuttle

180

   

180

180

 

180

180

 

180

180

180

180

150

180

135

162

135

162

135

     

324

270

270

 

225

270

 

270

324

 

270

 
   

324

270

 

255

255

Comb. HW [s] GU-LH LH-VC WF-MT CO-KG CO-LH

180

   

180

180

 

180

180

 

180

180

180

180

180

108

108

162

135

180

180

108

90

108

90

108

90

108

90

180

150

180

135

162

135

216

180

270

225

270

270

324

270

255

255

Roundtrip ***

       

Evergreen

 

78.0

   

78.0

 

33.0

   

78.0

Expo

87.0

87.0

86.5

86.5

87.7

Expo WF-MT

     

44.2

45.0

Millennium

 

83.8

   

124.2

 

124.2

   

Mill VC-LH

   

48.5

CO-LH shuttle

   

21.25

Blocks

             

Evergreen

26

 

26

26

 

26

11

 

11

26

26

Expo

29

34.8

29

38.7

32

39

32

39

Expo WF-MT

     

8

11

Millennium

19

 

22.3

27.6

 

27.6

23

 

27.6

 

Mill VC-LH

   

9

11

CO-LH shuttle

 

5

5

Total Blocks

74

   

83.0

83.0

 

93.0

75

 

89

71

81

* : The marked scenarios have been simulated in VISUM and all numbers in the table have been generated by VISUM. ** : This describes headways for stand-alone lines and operating patterns (X of Y trains) for shared lines. *** : Roundtrip time including recovery buffer at the first and last stops.

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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3. Travel Demand Estimation

The estimation of the travel demand for Evergreen Line and the other rail systems follows the same methodology as RTM Phase A. Existing demand, for 2007, is based on the most recent counts. The future demand as station-to-station matrices is obtained by adding delta matrices to the existing demand. These delta matrices are derived as differences between the Evergreen forecast and the base scenario both from the emme/2 regional model. This study uses forecasts for 2014 and 2021, derived from Emme runs for 2011 and 2021.

3.1. Adjustment of SkyTrain Demand for 2007

Using the latest boarding counts on SkyTrain and WCE, the Phase A travel demand has been updated to better reflect 2007. The update used the TFlowFuzzy procedure to factor the station- to-station matrices from 2006 so that they fit the most recent SkyTrain boarding survey (2006, 2005 or 2003) using growth factors to reflect the 2007 values.

Table 6: SkyTrain and WCE 2006: Trip Totals in the OD Matrices

Time of Day

From - To

2006 Matrix Totals - SkyTrain and WCE

2007 Matrix Totals - SkyTrain and WCE

AM

5:00 – 9:00

53,500

56,200

Mid

9:00 – 15:00

65,000

69,900

PM

15:00 – 18:00

65,800

71,100

Eve

18:00 – 26:00

48,900

53,100

24-h

5:00 – 26:00

233,100

250,300

3.2. Import of Emme Forecasts

Emme/2 forecasts provide the basis for updating demand for future years 2014 and 2021. Link volumes have been imported into VISUM to obtain theoretical target values for factoring existing matrices. The most recent Emme/2 data were made available in the report “Evergreen SkyTrain Transit Volumes and Boardings”, May 22 nd 2008. The following figures show difference link volumes of several scenarios, namely these are differences between the forecast year with Evergreen as SkyTrain and forecast year Base scenario (Figure 4), between the forecast year Base scenarios and the 2004 Base case (Figure 5) and between the forecast year with Evergreen as SkyTrain and 2004 Base case (Figure 6). All data are displayed for the AM peak hour.

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Figure 4: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between ALRT and Base Scenarios

Emme differences for 2011: Emme differences for 2021:
Emme differences for 2011:
Emme differences for 2021:

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Figure 5: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between Future-Base and 2004-Base

Emme differences for 2011Base: Emme differences for 2021Base:
Emme differences for 2011Base:
Emme differences for 2021Base:

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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Figure 6: Emme One-Hour AM Difference between ALRT and 2004-Base Scenarios

Emme differences for 2011SkyTrain: Emme differences for 2021SkyTrain:
Emme differences for 2011SkyTrain:
Emme differences for 2021SkyTrain:

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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From Figure 4 it can be derived how the demand changes due to the introduction of the Evergreen Line as SkyTrain. These changes will be reflected in the demand component Evergreen Line growth. It can also be seen that the new Evergreen Line results in a shift of passengers from the WCE Line to services of the SkyTrain. The differences as shown in Figure 5 provide an indication of changes for the general demand growth which is included in the demand component SkyTrain growth. Figure 6 sums both parts up to the total changes in demand of all components.

3.3. Deriving Basic Components of Future Travel Demand

Demand components were updated based on the assumption that 4-hour AM volumes can be obtained by multiplying the one-hour emme/2 volumes with a factor of 2.2 (see Phase A report).

Evergreen Line

The delta matrix for the Evergreen Line has been derived from the difference volumes as shown in Figure 4. Note that for the section between Lougheed and Guildford link volumes are zero for the Base case, i.e. differences are equal to the link volumes as obtained for the scenario with SkyTrain. The resulting demand that uses the Evergreen Line for the 4-hour AM period is of 17,500 linked trips for 2011 and 25,500 for 2021.

WCE

In the emme/2 forecast, the passenger load on WCE drops by about 800 trips (2021) and 1100 (2011) in the AM peak hour as a result of the introduction of Evergreen ALRT. This is mainly caused by a change in path choice by former WCE passengers. The increase of SkyTrain passengers will be part of the Evergreen Line demand component. The reduction of demand is reflected by a negative WCE growth matrix which is added to the ‘SkyTrain and WCE 2006’ matrix. Technically, the negative growth matrix is obtained by factoring a partial matrix up to the desired target values. The difference between the partial matrix and the resulting matrix is the reduction of WCE demand. The partial matrix is obtained as a result of a flow bundle analysis in VISUM which determines all trips that pass over inbound links between Port Moody and Waterfront (WCE).

General Demand Growth on the Rest of SkyTrain

These changes can be mainly derived from differences without the Evergreen SkyTrain option, i.e. Figure 5. However, major demand reduction in emme/2 due to the introduction of the Evergreen SkyTrain (negative differences in Figure 4) are taken into account too. The latter can be observed between Broadway - Columbia, Columbia - King George, and Lougheed - Columbia (both directions). On these section a more moderate increase than shown in Figure 5 is used to factor up the existing demand component of SkyTrain growth.

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

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Canada Line

The Canada Line demand is identical to the one developed during RTM Phase A. There are two delta matrices: residential weekday demand and airport passenger demand.

3.4. Resulting Travel Demand for 2014 and 2021

The resulting travel demand for 2021 can be directly obtained by adding up matrices of demand components for this year. For 2014 the following formula has been used:

Demand 2014 = 7/10 * Demand 2011 + 3/10 * Demand 2021

A

Python script “*.py” has been produced which documents the calculation method. It can be used

to

obtain and store final matrices in the VISUM version.

Table 7: Rapid Transit Ridership 2014: Total Linked Trips and Component of the Total

 

AM

Mid

PM

Eve

24

Hour

2014

5:00-9:00

9:00-15:00

5:00-18:00

18:00-2:00

Day

SkyTrain & WCE 2007

56,300

70,000

71,100

53,100

250,300

+ SkyTrain growth

7,700

10,100

9,700

7,700

35,200

+ WCE growth

-2,300

0

-2,300

0

-4,500

+ Canada Line demand

20,700

41,400

28,000

29,200

119,300

+ Airport demand

1,500

1,200

1,900

500

 

5,100

+ Evergreen Line demand

19,900

26,100

24,900

22,400

93,400

Total Demand

103,900

148,700

133,200

112,900

498,800

Table 8: Rapid Transit Ridership 2021: Total Linked Trips and Component of the Total

 

AM

Mid

PM

Eve

24

Hour

2021

5:00-9:00

9:00-15:00

5:00-18:00

18:00-2:00

Day

SkyTrain & WCE 2006

56,300

70,000

71,100

53,100

250,300

+ SkyTrain growth

16,300

21,300

20,400

16,100

74,100

+ WCE growth

-1,800

0

-1,800

0

-3,600

+ Canada Line demand

23,800

44,800

32,100

33,600

134,300

+ Airport demand

1,900

1,500

2,300

600

 

6,300

+ Evergreen Line demand

25,500

33,300

31,800

28,700

119,300

Total Demand

121,900

170,800

155,900

132,100

580,700

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 20

3.5. Assignment Results

Figure 7: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 1 - Split Tail - 108s Expo HW

Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 1 - Split Tail - 108s Expo HW Figure 8: Passenger

Figure 8: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 5 - Break at LH - 108s Expo HW

Figure 8: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 5 - Break at LH - 108s Expo

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 21

Figure 9: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 7a - Break at CO - 108s Expo HW

Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 7a - Break at CO - 108s Expo HW Figure 10:

Figure 10: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 8a - Break at CO - 90s Expo HW

10: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2021, Scenario 8a - Break at CO - 90s Expo HW

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 22

Figure 11: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 1 - Split Tail - 108s Expo HW

8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 1 - Split Tail - 108s Expo HW Figure 12: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021,

Figure 12: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 5 - Break at LH - 108s Expo HW

HW Figure 12: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 5 - Break at LH - 108s Expo HW

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 23

Figure 13: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 7a - Break at CO - 108s Expo HW

8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 7a - Break at CO - 108s Expo HW Figure 14: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30,

Figure 14: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 8a - Break at CO - 90s Expo HW

HW Figure 14: VC-Ratio 8:15-8:30, 2021, Scenario 8a - Break at CO - 90s Expo HW

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 24

4. Integrated Operations Analysis

4.1. Operations Analysis with Four Scenarios for the AM Peak

Based on the assumptions of uniform train mix over all three routes, the number of trains that are needed in peak service (58 for 108s headway and 69 for 90s) can be translated into fleet requirements and system capacities.

Table 9 shows the train assignment that has been used to compare the operational scenarios modeled in VISUM.

Table 9: Train Assignment Peak-Operations 2021

 

Split Tail

Break at LH

Break at CO

Scenario name

max 108s

blh 108s

bco 108s

bco 90s

Scenario number

1

5

7a

8a

Evergreen

5-car Mark-II

3-car Mark-II

5-car Mark-II

5-car Mark-II

Expo

5-car Mark-II

4-car Mark-II

5-car Mark-II

5-car Mark-II

Expo short turn WF-MT

 

2-car Mark-II

2-car Mark-II

Millennium

4-car Mark-II

5-car Mark-II

Mill short turn LH-VC

5-car Mark-II

CO-LH shuttle

 

2-car Mark-II

2-car Mark-II

Total 2-car units

93

96

71

81

Total 3-car units

55

43

58

65

Total cars

351

321

316

357

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 25

Table 10: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Split Tail: Ridership and Operations Statistics

Line

Expo

Millennium

Evergreen

Train KM 7-9 h

2,304

1,481

2,045

Train hours 7-9 h

54.9

35.8

47.8

Car KM 7-9 h

11,520

5,924

10,225

Car hours 7-9 h

274.5

143.3

238.9

Passenger KM 7-9 h

374,854

204,308

297,618

Passenger hours 7-9 h

8,645

4,813

6,791

Total transfers AM

 

14,166

Total transfers by station BW – CM CO LH

 

9,164

1,860

3,142

Capacity analysis 7-9 h:

Max 15-min vol *

Avg 15-min cap *

Max v/c ratio *

WF – BW BW – CO CO – KG LH – VC CO – LH GU - LH

3,889

4,566

 

85

3,290

4,541

73

2,034

2,996

68

2,342

2,850

82

701

1,564

45

1,670

2,975

56

* “Max 15-min vol” = maximum 15-minute passenger volume over all links of the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period. “Avg 15-min cap” = average 15-minute link capacity of all trains serving the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period. “Max v/c ratio” = maximum ratio observed over all links of the section, where the “v/c ratio” = “max 15min vol” / “avg 15min cap”

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 26

Table 11: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at LH: Ridership and Operations Statistics

Line

Expo

Millennium

Evergreen

Train KM 7-9 h

2,563

2,508

 

911

Train hours 7-9 h

61.1

60.6

20.9

Car KM 7-9 h

10,252

12,540

2,733

Car hours 7-9 h

244.3

302.9

62.6

Passenger KM 7-9 h

376,452

408,476

94,445

Passenger hours 7-9 h

8,691

9,587

2,024

Total transfers AM

 

16748

Total transfers by station BW – CM CO LH

 

8,065

2,463

6,220

Capacity analysis 7-9 h:

Max 15-min vol *

Avg 15-min cap *

Max v/c ratio *

WF – BW BW – CO CO – KG LH – VC CO – LH GU - LH

3,762

4,299

 

88

3,199

4,268

75

2,086

2,663

78

2,423

3,161

77

785

1,636

48

1,698

1,785

95

* “Max 15-min vol” = maximum 15-minute passenger volume over all links of the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period. “Avg 15-min cap” = average 15-minute link capacity of all trains serving the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period. “Max v/c ratio” = maximum ratio observed over all links of the section, where the “v/c ratio” = “max 15min vol” / “avg 15min cap”

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 27

Table 12: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at CO (108s): Ridership and Operations Statistics

Line

Expo

Millennium

Evergreen

Train KM 7-9 h

3,141

345

2,046

Train hours 7-9 h

76.2

9.1

47.8

Car KM 7-9 h

15,704

689

10,229

Car hours 7-9 h

380.8

18.3

238.9

Passenger KM 7-9 h

515,292

24,500

326,265

Passenger hours 7-9 h

12,022

580

7,458

Total transfers AM

 

18,359

Total transfers by station BW – CM CO LH

 

11,160

3,784

3,415

Capacity analysis 7-9 h:

Max 15-min vol *

Avg 15-min cap *

Max v/c ratio *

WF – BW BW – CO CO – KG LH – VC CO – LH GU - LH

3,917

3,970

 

99

2,982

3,675

75

1,858

3,319

56

2,642

2,780

95

416

833

50

1,656

2,975

56

* “Max 15-min vol” = maximum 15-minute passenger volume over all links of the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period. “Avg 15-min cap” = average 15-minute link capacity of all trains serving the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period. “Max v/c ratio” = maximum ratio observed over all links of the section, where the “v/c ratio” = “max 15min vol” / “avg 15min cap”

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 28

Table 13: SkyTrain 2021 Scenario Break at CO (90s): Ridership and Operations Statistics

Line

Expo

Millennium

Evergreen

Train KM 7-9 h

3,744

345

2,041

Train hours 7-9 h

90.8

9.1

47.7

Car KM 7-9 h

18,719

689

10,204

Car hours 7-9 h

454.0

18.3

238.3

Passenger KM 7-9 h

514,879

24,567

325,989

Passenger hours 7-9 h

12,012

581

7,452

Total transfers AM

 

18,448

Total transfers by station BW – CM CO LH

 

11,225

3,794

3,429

Capacity analysis 7-9 h:

Max 15-min vol *

Avg 15-min cap *

Max v/c ratio *

WF – BW BW – CO CO – KG LH – VC CO – LH GU - LH

3,923

4,760

 

82

2,932

4,392

62

1,912

3,895

49

2,615

2,770

94

415

833

50

1,653

2,970

56

* “Max 15-min vol” = maximum 15-minute passenger volume over all links of the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period. “Avg 15-min cap” = average 15-minute link capacity of all trains serving the network section during the 7:00-9:00 period. “Max v/c ratio” = maximum ratio observed over all links of the section, where the “v/c ratio” = “max 15min vol” / “avg 15min cap”

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 29

Figure 15: Scenario Comparison: Ridership Impact 2021

Number of Transfers 7:00-9:00:

Number of Transfers 7:00-9:00: Passenger KM 7:00-9:00: Passenger Hours 7:00-9:00:

Passenger KM 7:00-9:00:

Passenger KM 7:00-9:00:

Passenger Hours 7:00-9:00:

Number of Transfers 7:00-9:00: Passenger KM 7:00-9:00: Passenger Hours 7:00-9:00:

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 30

Figure 16: Scenario Comparison: Operations Impact 2021

Number of Trains (Blocks) and Train Units in Peak Operation: 96 100 93 81 81
Number of Trains (Blocks) and Train Units in Peak Operation:
96
100
93
81
81
74
75
71
71
75
65
Number of
58
55
Trains
50
43
Number of 2-
car Units
25
Number of 3-
car Units
0
1 - Split Tail
5 - Break at LH
7a - Break at CO
8a - Break at CO
108s
90s
Number of Train Cars in Peak Operation: 375 357 351 350 321 325 316 300
Number of Train Cars in Peak Operation:
375
357
351
350
321
325
316
300
275
250
1 - Split Tail
5 - Break at LH
7a - Break at CO 8a - Break at CO
108s
90s

Car KM 7:00-9:00:

35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0

1 - Split Tail

5 - Break at LH

7a - Break at CO 108s

8a - Break at CO 90s

EvergreenMillennium Expo

MillenniumEvergreen Expo

ExpoEvergreen Millennium

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 31

4.2. Selection of the Preferred Scenario

Based on the operations analysis and other considerations, TransLink selected scenario “Split at Columbia” as the preferred scenario, and the 90s headway version (scenario 8a) has been selected for a detailed 24-hour simulation for the year 2021.

The major advantage of the Split at Columbia scenario is the reduction in fleet size of 35 cars (if scenarios 1 and 7, or 2 and 8 are compared), which would cost in the order of $100 million. This financial advantage would enable to upgrade Broadway station to accommodate the increased number of transfers that are expected with the preferred scenario. Another aspect of scenario 7a is that the WF-MT capacity is less than in scenario 1. Here however, since the WF-MT short-turn uses 8 blocks, we could provide more capacity in 7a by replacing the 2-car short-turn trains with 4- car or 5-car trains, which would require 16 or 24 additional cars and offer fleet investment savings relative to scenario 1 of $50 million or $20 respectively. A short-turn with 4-car trains would bring the 15-minute capacity up to 4600 (as per scenario 1) and give a v/c of a reasonable 86%.

4.3. 24-Hour Operations Analysis for the Preferred Scenario

The representation of the preferred scenario 8a ‘Break at CO (90s)’ has been enhanced with 24- hour schedules and train assignments to allow for a complete 24-hour run in VISUM. The 24-hour scenario is based on the following assumptions

Route scheme and operating patterns for shared lines are unchanged over 24 hours:

i.e. the Expo line runs 2 / 3 of the trains WF - KG and 1 / 3 WF – MT. Evergreen runs GU- VC and the Millennium shuttle between CO and LH.

Headways:

o

all Routes have the same peak headway during PM (15:00 to 18:30) as defined for AM.

o

Evergreen: 5 minutes during off-peak operations for both Mid-day (9:00 - 15:00, 18:30 - 21:00) and Evening (after 21:00)

o

Millennium Shuttle: between 4 and 5 min during Midday and 8 minutes during Evening

o

Expo combined headway WF - MT : 2 minutes for Mid and 3 minutes for Evening.

Round trip times : The time profiles depend on the time of day, so that round trip times can vary slightly compared to the AM period. As a result, headways are sometimes adjusted, for example for the shuttle according to the round trip time using the assumptions for layover and recovery times, given in section 2.4.

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 32

The following figures and table show a selection of graphical and statistical output for model runs 2014 and 2021.

Figure 17: Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows in Network View, 2014

Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows in Network View, 2014 Figure 18: Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows

Figure 18: Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows in Network View, 2021

2014 Figure 18: Rapid Transit 24-Hour Passenger Flows in Network View, 2021 PTV America Inc. /

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 33

Table 14: Rapid Transit Network 2014 and 2021: 24-Hour Model Results

 

2014 (Sc. 8a)

2021 (Sc. 8a)

Total number of linked trips Total number of linked trips (0 transfer) Total number of linked trips (1 transfer) Total number of linked trips (2 transfers) Total number of linked trips (> 2 transfers)

499,700

581,400

405,200

475,700

80,500

89,400

9,300

10,000

100

200

Total number of transfers Total number of unlinked trips

99,500

109,900

594,700

685,200

Unlinked trips Expo Line Unlinked trips Millennium Line Unlinked trips West Coast Express Unlinked trips Canada Line Unlinked trips Evergreen

269,300

295,800

29,600

34,000

5,300

6,000

126,100

143,100

164,300

206,300

Passenger KM Expo Line Passenger KM Millennium Line Passenger KM West Coast Express Passenger KM Canada Line Passenger KM Evergreen

2,661,900

2,928,300

122,900

136,800

153,500

177,900

987,500

1,101,200

1,430,400

1,794,100

Number of blocks Expo Line Number of blocks Millennium Line Number of blocks West Coast Express Number of blocks Canada Line Number of blocks Evergreen

50

50

5

5

5

5

16

16

26

26

Seat KM Expo Line Seat KM Millennium Line Seat KM West Coast Express Seat KM Canada Line Seat KM Evergreen

10,943,700

10,943,700

527,700

527,700

1,440,500

1,440,500

1,548,500

1,548,500

6,186,700

6,186,700

Total capacity KM Expo Line Total capacity KM Millennium Line Total capacity KM Total capacity KM Canada Line Total capacity KM Evergreen

31,007,100

31,007,100

1,495,200

1,495,200

3,484,600

3,484,600

6,157,300

6,157,300

17,529,000

17,529,000

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 34

5.

Conclusions

The Evergreen-ALRT study has used the Regional Transit Model (RTM) to analyze the performance and operational conditions that are involved with the extension of the current SkyTrain network to Coquitlam along the North-West corridor the Evergreen Line. The study reveales run times and operational indicators for several possible service scenarios and alternative ways to operate the line. The scenario comparison features multiple performance measures covering both the operations impact and the ridership impact. The ridership data are based on the existing demand given by 2007 counts plus Emme forecasts performed for the business case study.

The preferred operating scenario in this study consists of:

The Evergreen Line running from Guildford (GU, in Coquitlam) over Lougheed station (LH) to VCC station with a peak headway of 180s.

An Expo line with two branches: the mainline as today from Waterfront (WF) top King George (KG) and a short-turn from WF to Metrotown (MT). The preferred combined headway WF-MT is of 90s in 2021. Today’s combined headway of 108s has also been analyzed as a possible intermediary service.

A shuttle along today’s Millennium Line between Columbia and Lougheed stations (CO, LH) with a 255 s headway.

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 35

Appendix A: Scenario Composition and Route Names in VISUM

 

Split Tail

Double-Coordinated

Break at LH

Break at CO

Number

1

2

3 / 4

5 / 6

7a

8a

Evergreen

GU-VC

GU-VC

GU-LH

GU-VC

Expo

WF-KG

WF-KG

WF-KG

WF-KG, WF-MT

Millennium

WF-LH

WF-VC

WF-VC

CO-LH

Evergreen

ST_1

ST_2

(BCO_108s)

BLH_108

BCO_108

BCO_90

Expo

ST_max108

ST_max90

DC_108s

BLH_108

BCO_KG108

BCO_KG90

   

BCO_MT108

BCO_MT90

Millennium

ST_max108

ST_max90

DC_108s

BLH_WF108

BCO_108

BCO_90

 

BLH_LH108

 

Canada

 

Ri and YVR (for all scenarios)

 

WCE

2007 (for all scenarios)

RTM: Evergreen as ALRT

Page 36

Appendix B: Assignment Results for 2007

Figure 19: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2007

Results for 2007 Figure 19: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2007 Figure 20: Passenger Loads 24-hour, 2007

Figure 20: Passenger Loads 24-hour, 2007

19: Passenger Loads 5-9 AM, 2007 Figure 20: Passenger Loads 24-hour, 2007 PTV America Inc. /