Security Issues in the 

Security Issues in the

Asia Pacific

Professor Carl Thayer
Presentation to Lemhannas
Presentation to Lemhannas
2 November 2009
 Outline of Presentation
Outline of Presentation
• Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
• Asia‐Pacific Region
– Rise of China
Ri f Chi
– Divided states: China‐Taiwan & Korea
• South East Asia
– Internal conflicts
– Territorial disputes
– Myanmar
Pre‐Crisis
Pre Crisis Economic Trends
Economic Trends
 Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
Global Financial Crisis (GFC)
• GFC
GFC has accentuated Power Shift from North 
has accentuated Power Shift from North
America & Europe to the Asia‐Pacific
• Global recovery from recession underway
Global recovery from recession underway
• New structure of international decision‐
making is emerging
ki i i
• U.S. moral authority and capitalist model of 
development under challenge
q g
• China’s rise most consequential global trend
Changing National Power Relativities
Changing National Power Relativities
Asia‐Pacific wide Security Issues
Importance of Maritime Domain
Importance of Maritime Domain
Ri
Rise of China (and India)
f Chi ( d I di )
Estimates of Chinese Defence Budgets
Estimates of Chinese Defence Budgets
US: China’ss Defence Spending
US: China Defence Spending
 China: U.S. Defence Spending

Comparison of Defense Expenditures 2005 (US$ bn): China’s 2006 Defense White Paper
14
Military
Military 
Modernisation:
Anti access/
Anti‐access/ 
area‐denial or 
power 
power
projection?

Conventional 
Anti‐Access 
Capabilities –
ranges of 
ballistic missiles
ballistic missiles
 Yulin Naval 
Yulin Naval
Base, Hainan 
Island
South China Sea
South China Sea
South China Sea Territorial Disputes
South China Sea Territorial Disputes
 The Korean Peninsula
The Korean Peninsula
• Nuclear weapons program
Nuclear weapons program
– Processing and enrichment
– Nuclear capability
Nuclear capability
• Development of longer‐range ballistic missiles
• Past proliferator of WMD technology
• Unpredictable rogue behaviour
• Secession issue and regime stability
 South East Asia Security Issues
South East Asia Security Issues

• Internal conflicts
– Southern Thailand
– Southern Philippines
• Territorial disputes
T it i l di t
– Cambodia‐Thailand
• Myanmar
Southern Thailand
Southern Thailand
• Long
Long standing ethno
standing ethno‐
nationalist conflict
y
• Malay Muslims
• Sharp escalation in 
violence since 2004
• Increased jihadist 
rhetoric
• Internal affair – non‐
interference
 Southern 
Philippines

Jemmah 
Islamiah/al Qaeda 
remnants

Abu Sayyaf  Rogue MILF 
Group, RSM  commands

24
 Cambodia‐Thailand Temple 
Dispute
• Territorial
Territorial dispute taken 
dispute taken
to ICJ in 1962
• Both are ASEAN 
members
• 2008 forces mobilised, 
deadly force used
• Irritant in bilateral 
relations
• Spill over to ASEAN?
 Myanmar
• Elections
Elections 2010
2010
• Pressure on ethnic minority cease fire groups
• Imprisoned pro‐democracy activists
i d d i i
– Aung San Suu Kyi
• Is national reconciliation possible?
• Role of US, China and other external powers
, p
• ASEAN and ASEAN Charter
Transnational Security Issues
Transnational Security Issues
• Internationally networked terrorism
Internationally networked terrorism
• International criminal syndicates
• Piracy
i
• Illicit drug production and smuggling
• People smuggling 
• Pandemics
• Natural Disasters
 Conclusion
• China
China will increase all dimensions of national 
will increase all dimensions of national
power
– Newly acquired and planned weapons capabilities 
Newly acquired and planned weapons capabilities
pose a security dilemma to regional states
• Relative primacy of the U.S. will decline
Relative primacy of the U S will decline
• WMD proliferation the most serious threat
• North Korea leadership secession uncertainty
 Conclusion
• China
China – Japan + China
Japan + China‐India
India rivalry
rivalry
• Southeast Asia beset by severe internal 
conflicts
• Territorial disputes threaten ASEAN cohesion
• ASEAN Charter and Myanmar
• What type of security architecture best 
yp y
addresses internal conflict and its spillover 
effects?
 Security Issues in 
the Asia Pacific

Professor Carl Thayer
Presentation to Lemhannas
Presentation to Lemhannas
2 November 2009